Internal Migration Decisions Research Articles

How do low-education immigrants adjust to Chinese import shocks? Evidence using English language proficiency

This paper examines the link between trade-induced changes in local labor market opportunities and English language fluency rates among low-education immigrants in the United States. The production-based manufacturing jobs lost due to Chinese import competition around the turn of the century did not require strong English-speaking skills while many of the jobs in expanding industries, mostly in the service sector, did. Consistent with responses to these changing labor market opportunities, we find that a $1,000 increase in import exposure per worker in a local area led to an increase in the share of low-education immigrants speaking English very well in that area by about half a percentage point. As evidence that at least part of this is a result of actual improvements in English language speaking abilities, we show that low-education immigrants in trade-impacted areas became especially likely to be enrolled in school compared to similarly low-education natives. While we find some evidence for domestic migration in response to trade shocks, we also show that our results are not likely to be driven by language-selective internal migration or initial settlement decisions.

Love is Elsewhere: Internal Migration and Marriage Prospects in China

Migration and marriage are major life events that might interact and be jointly decided. Places with good labor market opportunities may or may not provide good marriage options. In this paper, I quantify gains and losses in marriage prospects for unmarried migrants and natives during the population redistribution driven by internal migration. I also examine how the experiences differ by individual characteristics and regional factors. The analysis measures marriage prospects using the availability ratio (AR) with adaptive assortative matching norms for every unmarried individual from sample data of the 2010 China population census. The AR quantifies the intensity of competition for suitable partners in the local marriage market. I compare (1) migrants’ current AR with an alternative AR if the migrant returned to the hometown and (2) natives’ AR with a hypothetical AR if all migrants returned to their hometown. The first comparison shows that among migrants moving for labor market opportunities, most women have higher ARs (better marriage prospects) in the place of residence than in their hometown, especially those of rural origin. In contrast, migrant men’s ARs mostly decrease after migration except for the best educated. The second comparison reveals small negative externalities of internal migration on ARs for native women but positive impacts for some native men. The results suggest a conflict between labor market opportunities that dominate internal migration decisions and marriage market opportunities in China. This study demonstrates a method to quantify and compare marriage prospects and extends the literature on how migration and marriage interact.

Aid and internal migration in Malawi

This paper uses geographically disaggregated data to investigate the role of foreign aid as a pull factor for internal migration in Malawi over the period 1998–2008. Employing a standard gravity model of migration, we show a positive relationship between the volume of foreign assistance a district receives and the number of immigrants. While aid makes districts more attractive as migrant destinations, there is no evidence of a counterbalancing push factor effect on internal mobility. We also dig deeper into the mechanisms through which foreign aid can shape internal migration decisions. According to our results, the positive welfare effects of foreign assistance manifest themselves not only through a rise in economic opportunities, but also in improved access to public services in recipient districts.

Determinants of Internal Migration for Tertiary Students: Structural Equation Modelling Study in Klang Valley, Malaysia

In developing countries like Malaysia, internal migration from rural areas to urban centers causes an imbalance in population distribution and its subsequent negative externality. This creates an urgent need to identify factors affecting internal migration. This paper examines the determinants of internal migration on tertiary students’ decision-making within the Klang Valley, Malaysia. The dependent variable is the internal migration decision making and the independent variables are the social factor, miscellaneous factor, family factor, economic factor, and government factor. Data were collected through survey questionnaires. The Partial Least Squared type of Structural Equation Modelling is applied. Findings reveal family factors, miscellaneous factors, and social factors have significant impacts on internal migration decision-making. The economic factor has a significant relationship with social factors, while the government factor has a significant relationship with both miscellaneous and economic factors. Each factor in this study has either a direct or indirect impact on internal migration decisions.

Who moves and who gains from internal migration in Egypt? Evidence from two waves of a labor market panel survey

In recent decades, Egypt has experienced rapid internal migration movements triggered by urbanization, socioeconomic development, and environmental changes. From a literature perspective, few scholarly studies have empirically examined the drivers and welfare impacts of internal migration in Egypt, despite the increasing recognition of its inextricably links to urban sustainability. The present study utilized data from two waves of an Egyptian Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS) conducted in 2012 and 2018 and consisting of 63,909 observations to examine factors that determine internal migration decisions and their subsequent welfare effects. The results of the two-stage Heckman selection model indicate that both the determinants of internal migration decisions and welfare outcomes differ appreciably depending on migration stream as well as the socioeconomic characteristics of the migrants. In particular, females were found to be more likely to migrate from rural to urban areas, lending support to the growing literature on the “feminization of migration” in developing countries. The OLS regression results, after correcting for self-selection, make a strong case for the positive welfare gains from internal migration in Egypt. Specially, we found that the welfare gains for older and female migrants are much higher than other age and gender groups. A comparison of the welfare effects between different migration streams shows that all migratory movements were associated with positive and statistically significant welfare gains, except for rural-to-urban migration that was surprisingly found to be associated with significant welfare loss for the migrants. Urban-to-urban migration was found to have the strongest welfare enhancing effects on all migrant groups. The empirical findings underline a number of research and policy implications for a sustainable management of internal migration in Egypt and other countries with similar internal migration trends.

“Finding home”: Affective geographies of regional youth (im)mobilities

AbstractIn this paper, we aim to contribute to a growing body of literature that explores the affective geographies of young people’s internal migration decisions using mobilities/immobilities as our conceptual framework. As such, our focus is not only on why young people choose to leave their hometowns but also why some choose to stay. By paying attention to young people’s experiences of being away, we also shed light on why some young people choose to return to regional areas having left for a time. In emphasising the affective, material, and embodied dimensions of these experiences, the affordances of rural and urban places are also brought to light. Fifty young people aged between 18 and 34 years from three regional Australian towns took part in the study by participating in semi‐structured interviews. Qualitative findings indicate that the internal migration decisions of these regional young people were predominantly affective. We demonstrate how bodies were affected by the particularities of place – including materialities and relations with human and non‐humans – that worked to connect or unify bodies, evoking feelings of inclusion and security. We discuss how the affective atmospheres of places pushed into and onto bodies, making them feel dislocated or oppressed, and the way that places worked to push bodies out through the embodied experience of difference. The participants in our study emphasised the dilemma of these affective pushes and pulls, where feelings of belonging, or longing for home or country had to be negotiated, reconsidered, and re‐worked in relation to the unfolding of place.

Linking internal and international migration in 13 European countries: complementarity or substitution?

ABSTRACT Internal and international migration form part of the same continuum of population movement but are typically conceptualised, measured and studied separately. Despite early theoretical attempts at conceptualising internal and international migration jointly, existing evidence remains partial and fragmented, reflecting a diversity of traditions in migration research. To address this gap in knowledge, this paper takes a step towards integration by comparing the triggers, constraints and resources that shape internal and international migration decisions at the micro-level. To accomplish this, we analyse retrospective migration histories from a 13-country cross-national dataset (the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, n = 201,061 person-years from 6,112 individuals) using multinomial random-effect logistic regression models that account for duration dependence. The results show that internal and international migration are linked to the same life-course events, although economic-related transitions are more strongly associated with international than internal migration. We also find that the same resources (e.g. education) and constraints (e.g. homeownership) shape internal and international migration decisions. Altogether, our findings suggest that there is an opportunity for greater theoretical cross-fertilisation between internal and international migration.

Aid and Internal Migration in Malawi

This paper uses geographically disaggregated data to investigate the role of foreign aid as a pull factor for internal migration in Malawi over the period 1998-2008. Employing a standard gravity model of migration, we show a positive relationship between the volume of foreign assistance a district receives and the number of immigrants. While aid makes districts more attractive as migrant destinations, there is no evidence of a corresponding push factor effect on internal mobility. We also dig deeper into the mechanisms through which foreign aid can shape internal migration decisions. According to our results, the positive welfare effects of foreign assistance manifest themselves not only through a rise in economic opportunities, but also in improved access to public services in recipient districts.

A demographic factor as a determinant of migration: what is the effect of sibship size on migration decisions?

AbstractDeveloping countries often lack an adequate social security system, and elderly parents rely heavily on their children for support. Aging populations and low-fertility rates are an emerging trend in developing countries. In this paper, we examine the effects of sibship size on individuals' internal migration decisions in China. We find that the number of siblings has a positive effect on individual migration decisions, but this effect is non-linear and marginally increasing. Second, we find that having brothers has a more significant effect on migration decisions than having sisters. Finally, although of different magnitudes, the effects are persistent across genders, Hukou status, and education levels.

Facing Climate Change: What Drives Internal Migration Decisions in the Karst Rocky Regions of Southwest China

Global climate change and its influence on human migration have caused heated debates. There is no consensus about the role of environmental change in shaping migration decisions. To amass more evidence and develop a deeper understanding of the relations between the environment and migration, this paper seeks to evaluate the importance of various drivers (economic, social, political, demographic, and environmental drivers) and determine the internal mechanism in the decision process. The Likert scale was used as the tool for measuring each respondent’s perception of the drivers, and the within-group interrater agreement index was used to express the survey data and to select the actual driving forces. As a result, economic, social, and political factors were strong forces that promoted migration directly, while demographic and environmental factors were moderate or weak forces that promoted migration indirectly. The migrants’ core consideration was to effectively reduce family risks and sustain their livelihoods by moving to a destination to improve their household income, keep their original social networks, and obtain housing allowances from the local government. Land degradation and meteorological disasters were rooted in the vulnerability and risks of a family, and these factors indirectly influenced the people’s decisions by affecting the socioeconomic drivers. We concluded that isolating the environmental drivers from other drivers underlying migration decisions is difficult. Additionally, the internal mechanism indicated that both environmental and non-environmental factors all have an impact on choice in different ways. Future policies should be aimed at increasing sustainable livelihoods and the social resilience of migrant families at a personal level, balancing the development levels of the original locations and destinations, and strengthening international cooperation to reduce the negative effects of climate change at the regional level.

Ethnic identity and internal migration decision in Indonesia

ABSTRACT Due to differences in geographical situations and other ethnic-specific factors, different ethnic groups have developed different preferences towards migration as part of their socioeconomic norms. An ethnic group’s social norms provide a sense of identification and belonging to its members, and are hence likely to influence the decision-making of the individuals within the group. We hypothesise that the effects of these norms will be attenuated when one’s ethnic group is in the majority in their community. This case has been established in social psychology studies on the salience of social categories. Using the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) panel dataset combined with the 2000 and 2010 Indonesia population census data, this paper empirically investigates the role of ethnic identity in individuals’ internal migration decisions in Indonesia. The estimation exploits variation in whether an individual is living as a part of the ethnic majority or minority within their community, to explain the migration rates variation. The results demonstrate that while the individuals from more mobile ethnic groups tend to have a higher probability to migrate compared to those of less mobile ethnic groups, the effect is weakened when the individuals live as part of the majority ethnic group in the community.

Gender dimension of migration decisions in Ghana: the reinforcing role of anticipated welfare of climatic effect

The concept of migration has been a male phenomenon in time past, however, there has been a change in events as females are gradually gaining dominance in migration patterns in recent times. Using nationwide survey data this paper investigates the determinants of internal migration decisions for males and females in Ghana. We examined whether there is any significant differences in how climate elements together with anticipated welfare gains and socio-economic factors explain internal migration decision of males and females. We find some variations in the determinants of migration decisions for males and female, though these decisions are significantly affected by anticipated welfare gain, socio-economic factors and climate conditions. We observed that females respond more to climate or environmental elements than males. Moreover, the effect of climate on migration decisions for both males and females is reinforced by anticipated welfare gain.

The role of intergenerational mobility in internal migration

This paper investigates the role of intergenerational mobility in the internal migration decisions of families. The geographic variation in intergenerational mobility suggests that if parents value their children's human capital accumulation and future outcomes, they would have an incentive to move to areas with a higher upward mobility. To identify the effect of intergenerational mobility on family migration, we first use an instrumental variable approach, based on a heteroskedastic covariance restriction, which addresses measurement-error and omitted-variable biases. Then, we apply the semiparametric maximum score estimation method to our empirical model, which yields a consistent estimator when families' choice sets are partially observed. We find that highly educated families with school-aged children choose areas that favor upward mobility. Our welfare analysis indicates that a unit increase in the absolute upward mobility of a commuting zone is equivalent to approximately a $722 higher mean wage in the local labor market.

The regional effects of international migration on internal migration decisions of tertiary‐educated workers

AbstractThis study is a departure from the classic analysis of the effect of international migration on human capital. Using original data from a nationally representative survey in Moldova, we employ discrete choice and count‐data models to evaluate the effect of international migration on the likelihood that “left‐behind” household members with tertiary education migrate domestically. Thus, we propose an original framework of identifying a causal relationship between international and internal migration. The main findings support the hypothesis that international migration leads to an increase in the preference for urban jobs of tertiary‐educated left‐behind household members with peripheral rural origins.

Place of origin and internal migration decisions in Mexico

ABSTRACTThis paper investigates internal migration decisions in Mexico. It analyses, first, the associations between migration decisions and pre-migration individual characteristics, testing the hypothesis of positive selection; second, whether and how the characteristics of the place of origin affect migration decisions; and third, whether the relationship between place characteristics and migration decisions varies depending on individual traits. Results indicate positive selection of emigrants in terms of both quantity and quality of human capital; and an important role of origin characteristics, consistent with migration transition theory.

Region of Origin: Settlement Decisions of Turkish and Iranian Immigrants in Sweden, 1968–2001

AbstractThis paper focuses on the residential resettlement decisions of a sample of immigrants from Iran and Turkey living in Sweden between 1968 and 2001. Using the Swedish Longitudinal Immigrant database, we are able to link unique pre‐ and post‐migration data to understand whether region of origin is a better predictor of internal migration decisions than is country of origin, the more often used measure in existing research. More specifically, we test whether living in municipalities with a high number of individuals from the same country of origin is a similar phenomenon as a high number of individuals from the same region of origin. This is relevant, as large immigrant groups come from ethnically, religiously, and linguistically heterogeneous countries of origin where regional characteristics differ according to aforementioned aspects from that of the mainstream population. We indeed find that individuals are less likely to relocate from municipalities in which there is a large presence of other immigrants from the same region of origin. Instead, individuals residing in areas with a large number of individuals from their country of origin are observed with an elevated probability of resettlement. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Role of Intergenerational Mobility in Internal Migration

This paper investigates the role of intergenerational mobility in internal migration decisions of families. Geographic variation of intergenerational mobility suggests that if families value their children's human capital accumulation and future outcomes, they consider intergenerational mobility in migration decisions. Families' migration choice to an area is assumed to maximize children's expected outcomes and parents' utility. We apply the method of semiparametric maximum score estimation to our empirical model, which yields consistent estimators even when families choice sets are partially observed, as is the case in our dataset. We find that highly educated families with school-aged children choose areas that favor upward mobility. Our welfare analysis indicates that a unit increase in the absolute mobility of a commuting zone is equivalent to approximately $685 higher mean wage from the local labor market.

Destination Choice of Athenians: An Application of Geographically Weighted Versions of Standard and Zero Inflated Poisson Spatial Interaction Models

The main aim of this article is to combine recent developments in spatial interaction modeling to better model and explain spatial decisions. The empirical study refers to migration decisions made by internal migrants from Athens, Greece. To achieve this, geographically weighted versions of standard and zero inflated Poisson (ZIP) spatial interaction models are defined and fit. In the absence of empirical studies for the effect of potential determinants on internal migration decisions in Greece and the presence of an excessive number of zero migration flows among municipalities in Greece, this article provides empirical evidence for the power of the proposed Geographically Weighted ZIP regression method to better explain destination choices of Athenian internal migrants. We also discuss statistical inference issues in relation to the application of the proposed regression techniques.

What matters for internal migration, jobs or amenities?

There is an ongoing debate about whether jobs or amenities matter more for economic growth and by extension for regional migration. We review these debates briefly and point out that amenities are not always well defined and that the “either or” approach neglects the complexity of the migration process and the role that social processes play in the migration decision. While we acknowledge that there is still considerable ambiguity over the role that returns to employment play for internal migration decisions, this does not necessarily mean that the ambiguity can be replaced by calling on amenities as the major force in explaining migration flows.

Assessing inherent model bias: An application to native displacement in response to immigration

There is a long-standing debate among academics about the effect of immigration on native internal migration decisions. If immigrants displace natives this may indicate a direct cost of immigration in the form of decreased employment opportunity for native workers. Moreover, displacement would also imply that cross-region analyses of wage effects systematically underestimate the consequences of immigration. The widespread use of such area studies for the US and other countries makes it especially important to know whether a native internal response to immigration truly occurs. This paper introduces a microsimulation methodology to test for inherent bias in regression models that have been used in the literature. We show that some specifications have built biases into their models, thereby casting doubt on the validity of their results. We then provide a brief empirical analysis with a panel of observed US state-by-skill data. Together, our evidence argues against the existence of native displacement. This implies that cross-region analyses of immigration’s effect on wages are still informative.