To investigate the stress state of soil during the instability of the hole wall (hole shrinkage) in saturated clay, the theory of cylindrical cavity contraction in an infinite medium is applied, utilizing the modified Cam-Clay (MCC) model. By employing intermediate variables, the issue of cylindrical cavity contraction is reformulated into a first-order ordinary differential equation in Lagrangian form, with three effective stress components and pore pressure as the unknowns. In MATLAB, the stress conditions at the elastoplastic boundary serve as the initial values for solving the initial value problem of the differential equation system. After determining the correlation between the stress distribution around the cavity and the diameter reduction ratio, the analysis proceeds to evaluate the internal support pressure required for stabilizing the hole wall according to various stability criteria. This pressure is then integrated into the hole wall stability coefficient formula within the soil pressure model, facilitating the evaluation of hole wall stability. The effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed semi-analytical elastic–plastic solutions were subsequently confirmed through comparison with finite element analysis results, underscoring its relevance for addressing hole wall stability challenges.
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