Internal 5-fold Cross-validation Research Articles

AlzhCPI: A knowledge base for predicting chemical-protein interactions towards Alzheimer's disease.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a complicated progressive neurodegeneration disorder. To confront AD, scientists are searching for multi-target-directed ligands (MTDLs) to delay disease progression. The in silico prediction of chemical-protein interactions (CPI) can accelerate target identification and drug discovery. Previously, we developed 100 binary classifiers to predict the CPI for 25 key targets against AD using the multi-target quantitative structure-activity relationship (mt-QSAR) method. In this investigation, we aimed to apply the mt-QSAR method to enlarge the model library to predict CPI towards AD. Another 104 binary classifiers were further constructed to predict the CPI for 26 preclinical AD targets based on the naive Bayesian (NB) and recursive partitioning (RP) algorithms. The internal 5-fold cross-validation and external test set validation were applied to evaluate the performance of the training sets and test set, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) for the test sets ranged from 0.629 to 1.0, with an average of 0.903. In addition, we developed a web server named AlzhCPI to integrate the comprehensive information of approximately 204 binary classifiers, which has potential applications in network pharmacology and drug repositioning. AlzhCPI is available online at http://rcidm.org/AlzhCPI/index.html. To illustrate the applicability of AlzhCPI, the developed system was employed for the systems pharmacology-based investigation of shichangpu against AD to enhance the understanding of the mechanisms of action of shichangpu from a holistic perspective.

Development of novel in silico model for developmental toxicity assessment by using naïve Bayes classifier method

Toxicological testing associated with developmental toxicity endpoints are very expensive, time consuming and labor intensive. Thus, developing alternative approaches for developmental toxicity testing is an important and urgent task in the drug development filed. In this investigation, the naïve Bayes classifier was applied to develop a novel prediction model for developmental toxicity. The established prediction model was evaluated by the internal 5-fold cross validation and external test set. The overall prediction results for the internal 5-fold cross validation of the training set and external test set were 96.6% and 82.8%, respectively. In addition, four simple descriptors and some representative substructures of developmental toxicants were identified. Thus, we hope the established in silico prediction model could be used as alternative method for toxicological assessment. And these obtained molecular information could afford a deeper understanding on the developmental toxicants, and provide guidance for medicinal chemists working in drug discovery and lead optimization.

Novel naïve Bayes classification models for predicting the chemical Ames mutagenicity

Prediction of drug candidates for mutagenicity is a regulatory requirement since mutagenic compounds could pose a toxic risk to humans. The aim of this investigation was to develop a novel prediction model of mutagenicity by using a naïve Bayes classifier. The established model was validated by the internal 5-fold cross validation and external test sets. For comparison, the recursive partitioning classifier prediction model was also established and other various reported prediction models of mutagenicity were collected. Among these methods, the prediction performance of naïve Bayes classifier established here displayed very well and stable, which yielded average overall prediction accuracies for the internal 5-fold cross validation of the training set and external test set I set were 89.1±0.4% and 77.3±1.5%, respectively. The concordance of the external test set II with 446 marketed drugs was 90.9±0.3%. In addition, four simple molecular descriptors (e.g., Apol, No. of H donors, Num-Rings and Wiener) related to mutagenicity and five representative substructures of mutagens (e.g., aromatic nitro, hydroxyl amine, nitroso, aromatic amine and N-methyl-N-methylenemethanaminum) produced by ECFP_14 fingerprints were identified. We hope the established naïve Bayes prediction model can be applied to risk assessment processes; and the obtained important information of mutagenic chemicals can guide the design of chemical libraries for hit and lead optimization.

Novel naïve Bayes classification models for predicting the carcinogenicity of chemicals

The carcinogenicity prediction has become a significant issue for the pharmaceutical industry. The purpose of this investigation was to develop a novel prediction model of carcinogenicity of chemicals by using a naïve Bayes classifier. The established model was validated by the internal 5-fold cross validation and external test set. The naïve Bayes classifier gave an average overall prediction accuracy of 90 ± 0.8% for the training set and 68 ± 1.9% for the external test set. Moreover, five simple molecular descriptors (e.g., AlogP, Molecular weight (MW), No. of H donors, Apol and Wiener) considered as important for the carcinogenicity of chemicals were identified, and some substructures related to the carcinogenicity were achieved. Thus, we hope the established naïve Bayes prediction model could be applied to filter early-stage molecules for this potential carcinogenicity adverse effect; and the identified five simple molecular descriptors and substructures of carcinogens would give a better understanding of the carcinogenicity of chemicals, and further provide guidance for medicinal chemists in the design of new candidate drugs and lead optimization, ultimately reducing the attrition rate in later stages of drug development.

Towards cheminformatics-based estimation of drug therapeutic index: Predicting the protective index of anticonvulsants using a new quantitative structure-index relationship approach

The overall efficacy and safety profile of a new drug is partially evaluated by the therapeutic index in clinical studies and by the protective index (PI) in preclinical studies. In-silico predictive methods may facilitate the assessment of these indicators. Although QSAR and QSTR models can be used for predicting PI, their predictive capability has not been evaluated. To test this capability, we developed QSAR and QSTR models for predicting the activity and toxicity of anticonvulsants at accuracy levels above the literature-reported threshold (LT) of good QSAR models as tested by both the internal 5-fold cross validation and external validation method. These models showed significantly compromised PI predictive capability due to the cumulative errors of the QSAR and QSTR models. Therefore, in this investigation a new quantitative structure-index relationship (QSIR) model was devised and it showed improved PI predictive capability that superseded the LT of good QSAR models. The QSAR, QSTR and QSIR models were developed using support vector regression (SVR) method with the parameters optimized by using the greedy search method. The molecular descriptors relevant to the prediction of anticonvulsant activities, toxicities and PIs were analyzed by a recursive feature elimination method. The selected molecular descriptors are primarily associated with the drug-like, pharmacological and toxicological features and those used in the published anticonvulsant QSAR and QSTR models. This study suggested that QSIR is useful for estimating the therapeutic index of drug candidates.

Development of QSAR-Improved Statistical Potential for the Structure-Based Analysis of ProteinPeptide Binding Affinities.

Proteinpeptide interactions have recently been found to play an essential role in constructing intracellular signaling networks. Understanding the molecular mechanism of such interactions and identification of the interacting partners would be of great value for developing peptide therapeutics against many severe diseases such as cancer. In this study, we describe a structure-based, general-purpose strategy for fast and reliably predicting proteinpeptide binding affinities. This strategy combines unsupervised knowledge-based statistical potential derived from 505 interfacially diverse, non-redundant proteinpeptide complex structures and supervised quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) modeling trained by 250 proteinpeptide interactions with known structure and affinity data. The built partial least squares (PLS) model is confirmed to have high stability and predictive power by using internal 5-fold cross-validation and rigorous Monte Carlo cross-validation (MCCV). The model is further employed to analyze two large groups of HLA- and SH3-binding peptides based upon computationally modeled structures. Satisfactorily, although the PLS model is originally trained with dissociation constants (Kd ) of proteinpeptide binding, it shows a good correlation with other two affinity qualities, i.e. SPOT signal intensities (BLU) and half maximal competitive concentrations (IC50 ). Furthermore, we perform systematic comparisons of our method with several widely used, representative affinity predictors, including molecular mechanics-based MM-PB/SA, knowledge-based DFIRE and docking score HADDOCK, on a small panel of elaborately selected proteinpeptide systems. It is demonstrated that (i) the QSAR-improved statistical potential exhibits a comparable predictive performance with but can work faster than these traditional methods, and (ii) the crystal structure-derived statistical potential also supports the modeled and solution structures of proteinpeptide complexes. We expect that this hybrid method can be exploited as a new scoring tool to facilitate, for example, peptide docking and virtual screening.