Interlinked Systems Research Articles

On the Probabilistic Characterization of Robustness and Resilience

Over the last decade significant research efforts have been devoted to the probabilistic modeling and analysis of system characteristics. Especially performance characteristics of systems subjected to random disturbances, such as robustness and resilience have been in the focus of these efforts and significant insights have been gained. However, as much of the undertaken research and developments aim to fulfill the particular needs of specific application areas and/or societal sectors somewhat diverging perspectives and approaches have emerged. In the present paper we take basis in recent developments in the modeling of robustness and resilience in the research areas of natural disaster risk management, socio-ecological systems and social systems and we propose a generic decision analysis framework for the modeling and analysis of systems across application areas. The proposed framework extends the concept of direct and indirect consequences and associated risks in probabilistic systems modeling formulated by the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS) to facilitate the modeling and analysis of resilience in addition to robustness and vulnerability. Moreover, based on recent insights in the modeling of robustness, a quantification of resilience is formulated utilizing a scenario based systems benefit modeling where resilience failure is associated with exhaustion of the capital accumulated by the system of time. The proposed framework and modeling concepts are illustrated with basis in a simple interlinked system model comprised by an infrastructure system, a governance system, a regulatory system and a geo-hazards system. It is shown how the robustness and the resilience of the interlinked system may be modeled and quantified, how robustness and resilience are influenced by the stochastic dependency structure of the disturbance events and corresponding resistances, how robustness and resilience depends on the capacity of the social system to plan for and respond to disturbances over time and how robustness and resilience interrelate.

Use of Co-polymer of Styrene Butadiene Rubber-a Seismically Innovative Approach towards Energy Dissipation

Analysis, monitoring and control of vibration and displacement is the prime concern for structural engineers during any seismic activity. This paper presents the design, development and seismic performance of new and innovative visco-elastic links made by using ’ply’ of old & used radial rubber tyres (co-polymer of styrene butadiene rubber) coupled with interlinked concrete blocks of grade M-20. The study is conceptualized on frictional as well as viscous damping. The whole system is integrated to restrict translation and rotation of the concrete blocks during the extreme earthquake forces. The system is conceptualized on the principle of capacity based design by keeping the yielding capacity of visco-elastic links lower in comparison to concrete blocks. Full scale models are tested and analyzed on shake table and shock table under artificial earthquake excitations. Three shocks with the base acceleration ranging between 0.6g to 2.5g are applied under shock table test. Same type of model is tested on shake table also corresponding to an artificial accelerogram compatible with design spectrum as per IS: 1893 (Part 1): 2002 considering Design Basis Earthquake (DBE) and Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE) in zone v (for soft soil condition). Effective peak ground acceleration of 0.18g &0.36g is used as the base excitation in horizontal direction and its 2/3 is considered for its vertical motion. A high speed camera with the capturing capacity of 1000 frames per second is used for the analysis of the results and various parameters. A significant performance of inter-linked block masonry system is endorsed under both types of testing. The concept of block masonry with visco-elastic link is successful since the energy is completely released through yielding of links at the bottom portion of the model and the top of the model remains intact, even not a single block of parapet wall under shock table test is displaced from its original undamaged position.

Urban and transport planning, environmental exposures and health-new concepts, methods and tools to improve health in cities.

BackgroundThe majority of people live in cities and urbanization is continuing worldwide. Cities have long been known to be society’s predominant engine of innovation and wealth creation, yet they are also a main source of pollution and disease.MethodsWe conducted a review around the topic urban and transport planning, environmental exposures and health and describe the findings.ResultsWithin cities there is considerable variation in the levels of environmental exposures such as air pollution, noise, temperature and green space. Emerging evidence suggests that urban and transport planning indicators such as road network, distance to major roads, and traffic density, household density, industry and natural and green space explain a large proportion of the variability. Personal behavior including mobility adds further variability to personal exposures, determines variability in green space and UV exposure, and can provide increased levels of physical activity.Air pollution, noise and temperature have been associated with adverse health effects including increased morbidity and premature mortality, UV and green space with both positive and negative health effects and physical activity with many health benefits. In many cities there is still scope for further improvement in environmental quality through targeted policies. Making cities ‘green and healthy’ goes far beyond simply reducing CO2 emissions. Environmental factors are highly modifiable, and environmental interventions at the community level, such as urban and transport planning, have been shown to be promising and more cost effective than interventions at the individual level. However, the urban environment is a complex interlinked system.Decision-makers need not only better data on the complexity of factors in environmental and developmental processes affecting human health, but also enhanced understanding of the linkages to be able to know at which level to target their actions. New research tools, methods and paradigms such as geographical information systems, smartphones, and other GPS devices, small sensors to measure environmental exposures, remote sensing and the exposome paradigm together with citizens observatories and science and health impact assessment can now provide this information.ConclusionWhile in cities there are often silos of urban planning, mobility and transport, parks and green space, environmental department, (public) health department that do not work together well enough, multi-sectorial approaches are needed to tackle the environmental problems. The city of the future needs to be a green city, a social city, an active city, a healthy city.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12940-016-0108-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Systemic innovation in complex business portfolios - a case study

This paper presents the interaction of different systemic elements in innovation activities in complex business portfolios. The interaction of innovation and portfolio transformation is highlighted based on two empirical case studies. Systemic challenges with different drivers and external impacts are presented. The managerial implication is to focus on dynamism present in continuous change. This study contributes to innovation and portfolio business literature by creating a linkage between the two fields of study and by making the multiple interlinked systems visible. This paper extends the innovation discussion towards portfolio businesses.

Global nutrient transport in a world of giants

The past was a world of giants, with abundant whales in the sea and large animals roaming the land. However, that world came to an end following massive late-Quaternary megafauna extinctions on land and widespread population reductions in great whale populations over the past few centuries. These losses are likely to have had important consequences for broad-scale nutrient cycling, because recent literature suggests that large animals disproportionately drive nutrient movement. We estimate that the capacity of animals to move nutrients away from concentration patches has decreased to about 8% of the preextinction value on land and about 5% of historic values in oceans. For phosphorus (P), a key nutrient, upward movement in the ocean by marine mammals is about 23% of its former capacity (previously about 340 million kg of P per year). Movements by seabirds and anadromous fish provide important transfer of nutrients from the sea to land, totalling ∼150 million kg of P per year globally in the past, a transfer that has declined to less than 4% of this value as a result of the decimation of seabird colonies and anadromous fish populations. We propose that in the past, marine mammals, seabirds, anadromous fish, and terrestrial animals likely formed an interlinked system recycling nutrients from the ocean depths to the continental interiors, with marine mammals moving nutrients from the deep sea to surface waters, seabirds and anadromous fish moving nutrients from the ocean to land, and large animals moving nutrients away from hotspots into the continental interior.

Hydrology: The interdisciplinary science of water

AbstractWe live in a world where biophysical and social processes are tightly coupled. Hydrologic systems change in response to a variety of natural and human forces such as climate variability and change, water use and water infrastructure, and land cover change. In turn, changes in hydrologic systems impact socioeconomic, ecological, and climate systems at a number of scales, leading to a coevolution of these interlinked systems. The Harvard Water Program, Hydrosociology, Integrated Water Resources Management, Ecohydrology, Hydromorphology, and Sociohydrology were all introduced to provide distinct, interdisciplinary perspectives on water problems to address the contemporary dynamics of human interaction with the hydrosphere and the evolution of the Earth's hydrologic systems. Each of them addresses scientific, social, and engineering challenges related to how humans influence water systems and vice versa. There are now numerous examples in the literature of how holistic approaches can provide a structure and vision of the future of hydrology. We review selected examples, which taken together, describe the type of theoretical and applied integrated hydrologic analyses and associated curricular content required to address the societal issue of water resources sustainability. We describe a modern interdisciplinary science of hydrology needed to develop an in‐depth understanding of the dynamics of the connectedness between human and natural systems and to determine effective solutions to resolve the complex water problems that the world faces today. Nearly, every theoretical hydrologic model introduced previously is in need of revision to accommodate how climate, land, vegetation, and socioeconomic factors interact, change, and evolve over time.

Urban transformations and changing patterns of local risk: lessons from the Mekong Region

Purpose – This paper aims to fill a conceptual gap in the understanding of rapidly changing characteristics of local risk, addressing how the notion of the local might be reframed, and how opportunities for multi-scale interventions for disaster risk reduction might be identified. Design/methodology/approach – The paper illustrates the significance of the systems and services on which urbanization depends – water, food, energy, transport and communications – to consider the cascading impacts at multiple scales often beyond the administrative boundaries of cities, and how vulnerabilities and risks are distributed unevenly across different groups of people. Findings – The process of rapid urbanization in the Mekong Region represents a fundamental transformation of ecological landscapes, resource flows, livelihoods and demographics. In addition to the location of urbanization, it is these transformative processes and the critical dependence on inter-linked systems that shape the overall picture of urban disaster and climate vulnerability. Research limitations/implications – By drawing on research and practical experience in two of the most rapidly urbanizing countries in the world, Thailand and Vietnam, the approach and findings have implications for understanding global patterns of urbanization. Practical implications – The paper contributes to considering practical actions whether in terms of policy or project implementation for both the assessment of disaster and climate risk, and for actions to reduce vulnerability and promote resilience. Social implications – The paper draws largely from social science perspectives, highlighting the dynamism of social organization in urbanizing contexts, and the implications for risk and vulnerability. Originality/value – The paper draws on original research in Thailand and Vietnam that takes urbanization as the starting point for assessing vulnerability and risk.

Wybrane aspekty funkcjonowania Połączonego Systemu Ewidencji Danych o Przeciwniku (PSED) w latach 1977–1990

Wybrane aspekty funkcjonowania Połączonego Systemu Ewidencji Danych o Przeciwniku (PSED) w latach 1977–1990

Climate Report Focuses on Impacts and Need for Action

Changes in climate have “caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans” in recent decades, according to a report on climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability issued on 31 March by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Working Group II as part of IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report. The report also said that large uncertainties exist about the future vulnerability, exposure, and responses of interlinked human and natural systems and that adaptation and mitigation choices in the near term will affect the risks of climate change through the 21st century.

Measuring the health systems impact of disease control programmes: a critical reflection on the WHO building blocks framework

BackgroundThe WHO health systems Building Blocks framework has become ubiquitous in health systems research. However, it was not developed as a research instrument, but rather to facilitate investments of resources in health systems. In this paper, we reflect on the advantages and limitations of using the framework in applied research, as experienced in three empirical vaccine studies we have undertaken.DiscussionWe argue that while the Building Blocks framework is valuable because of its simplicity and ability to provide a common language for researchers, it is not suitable for analysing dynamic, complex and inter-linked systems impacts. In our three studies, we found that the mechanical segmentation of effects by the WHO building blocks, without recognition of their interactions, hindered the understanding of impacts on systems as a whole. Other important limitations were the artificial equal weight given to each building block and the challenge in capturing longer term effects and opportunity costs. Another criticism is not of the framework per se, but rather how it is typically used, with a focus on the six building blocks to the neglect of the dynamic process and outcome aspects of health systems.We believe the framework would be improved by making three amendments: integrating the missing “demand” component; incorporating an overarching, holistic health systems viewpoint and including scope for interactions between components. If researchers choose to use the Building Blocks framework, we recommend that it be adapted to the specific study question and context, with formative research and piloting conducted in order to inform this adaptation.SummaryAs with frameworks in general, the WHO Building Blocks framework is valuable because it creates a common language and shared understanding. However, for applied research, it falls short of what is needed to holistically evaluate the impact of specific interventions on health systems. We propose that if researchers use the framework, it should be adapted and made context-specific.

The impact of storage facility capacity and ramping capabilities on the supply side economic dispatch of the energy–water nexus

Clean energy and water are two essential resources that any society must securely deliver in order to develop sustainably. Recently, the energy and water infrastructure value chains have gained attention as a single interlinked system of global concern called the energy–water nexus. In light of these couplings, energy and water, as two valuable resources require co-optimization. Recently, one such simultaneous co-optimization method has been contributed for the economic dispatch of networks that include water, power and co-production facilities. This paper builds upon this foundation with the introduction of plant ramping behavior. Furthermore, it investigates the impact of electrical energy and water storage as a technology that can help to alleviate binding constraints and lead to more flat production and reduced cost levels. Three cases studies are presented; a base case, a second case inspired by Singapore's limited water storage availability, and a third case relevant to countries in the Middle East where water storage facilities can be readily constructed. Storage facilities are shown to reduce total operating costs by up to 38% and lead to less variable daily production suggesting that they have an important role to play in the optimization of the energy–water nexus.

Regression of vascular calcification in chronic kidney disease – feasible or fantasy? A review of the clinical evidence

The complex relationships between cardiovascular, renal, and bone disease are increasingly recognized but not yet clearly understood. Vascular calcification (VC) represents a common end point between these interlinked systems. It is highly prevalent in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and may be responsible for some of the excess cardiovascular events seen in this condition. There is much interest in developing therapeutic agents to stop its development or reverse its progression. Traditionally considered to be due to abnormalities in calcium and phosphate metabolism alone, VC is now known to be the product of active, dynamic processes within the vessel wall. Primary prevention of VC is possible through successful prevention or reversal of progressive renal dysfunction, hypertension and hyperlipidaemia, but is challenging given the increasing global prevalence of these risk factors. Secondary prevention of VC through tight control of calcium and phosphate, can be achieved by dietary or pharmacological means. Both the modification of haemodialysis duration or methods and the use of renal transplantation have an effect. Novel drugs such as cinacalcet were hoped to halt calcification but results have been mixed, and no intervention has yet been shown to reverse calcification reliably. A new range of experimental targets involved in the putative mediatory pathways between bone and vascular disease has emerged. Aiming to manipulate the active mechanisms involved in calcium deposition, these hold hope for reversal of calcification, but are still theoretical or in early animal or human experimentation.

A multi‐criteria based review of models that predict environmental impacts of land use‐change for perennial energy crops on water, carbon and nitrogen cycling

AbstractReduction in energy sector greenhouse gas GHG emissions is a key aim of European Commission plans to expand cultivation of bioenergy crops. Since agriculture makes up 10–12% of anthropogenic GHG emissions, impacts of land‐use change must be considered, which requires detailed understanding of specific changes to agroecosystems. The greenhouse gas (GHG) balance of perennials may differ significantly from the previous ecosystem. Net change in GHG emissions with land‐use change for bioenergy may exceed avoided fossil fuel emissions, meaning that actual GHG mitigation benefits are variable. Carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling are complex interlinked systems, and a change in land management may affect both differently at different sites, depending on other variables. Change in evapotranspiration with land‐use change may also have significant environmental or water resource impacts at some locations. This article derives a multi‐criteria based decision analysis approach to objectively identify the most appropriate assessment method of the environmental impacts of land‐use change for perennial energy crops. Based on a literature review and conceptual model in support of this approach, the potential impacts of land‐use change for perennial energy crops on GHG emissions and evapotranspiration were identified, as well as likely controlling variables. These findings were used to structure the decision problem and to outline model requirements. A process‐based model representing the complete agroecosystem was identified as the best predictive tool, where adequate data are available. Nineteen models were assessed according to suitability criteria, to identify current model capability, based on the conceptual model, and explicit representation of processes at appropriate resolution. FASSET, ECOSSE, ANIMO, DNDC, DayCent, Expert‐N, Ecosys, WNMM and CERES‐NOE were identified as appropriate models, with factors such as crop, location and data availability dictating the final decision for a given project. A database to inform such decisions is included.

Phytoplankton productivity in interlinked mangroves, seagrass and coral reefs and its ecotones in Gulf of Mannar Biosphere Reserve South east India

The present study analysed spatio-temporal variation in phytoplankton productivity in relation to physico-chemical factors, prevailing in an interlinked system of mangroves, seagrasses and coral reefs in south India. Temperature and salinity exhibited variation between seasons but did not vary between sampling sites. Dissolved oxygen and particulate organic carbon (POC) varied between sampling sites but did not vary between seasons. pH, redox potential, reactive silicate, nitrite, total phosphate and primary productivity varied significantly between seasons as well as between sampling sites (P<0.05). In the sediment, chlorophyll a, tannin and total organic carbon (TOC) varied significantly between seasons as well as between sampling sites; total amino acids and sugars did not vary significantly between seasons or between sampling sites (P<0.05). The phytoplankton counts showed significant variation between the sampling sites as well as the seasons (P<0.05). The primary productivity was higher in the mangrove region and lower in the coral reef. The seagrass region exhibited an intermediate value. A similar trend was observed in phytoplankton counts and nutrient loads. The PRIMER analysis revealed higher diversity and species richness of phytoplankton in the mangrove region in accordance with k-dominance curve. The cluster analysis grouped mangroves and the adjacent sites in Manoli Island as a separate group. Principal component ordination, BIOENVI and Global BEST match tests revealed TOC and POC to be the most influential parameters to primary productivity. Thus the present study ascertained the importance of mangrove-derived organic matter in the primary productivity of adjacent ecosystems.

Product identification in industrial batch fermentation using a variable forgetting factor

For reliable operation and the optimization of production, industrial fermentation processes require appropriate tools for monitoring the process in real time. This work presents the structure and operation of a soft sensor for the on-line monitoring of biomass and product concentration during salinomycin and bacitracin fermentation in an industrial, 80-m 3 batch reactor; moreover it provides a tool for evaluation of batch production verified in industrial application. The process estimation algorithm consists of decoupled growth and product models, which ensures an unbiased convergence of the estimator and the robustness of the model. The production of secondary metabolites is described with a non-structured model upgraded with a variable forgetting factor that demonstrated a successful estimation of the non-measured parameters and states of this highly interactive and interlinked system with complex dynamics. The possibility of using various input signals in product identification yields independent soft sensors. This serves to improve the reliability of the predictions, mutual sensor control and enables the detection of irregularities in the fermentation process before the broth becomes useless.

Water, Global Change and Health: Research Gaps, Research Priorities

Research priorities to improve water-associated global health problems should be derived through a formula reflecting burden of disease and intervention cost-effectiveness. This is far from the case, due to global inequality and also because of institutional lags which mean most populations and policy makers conceptualise the world as a myriad of small groups, rather than one interlinked system. The paper then discusses links between global change, water and health, including aquifer depletion and contamination and climate change associated alterations to rainfall patterns. It calls for greater transparency of the tracking industry, and points out that the risk to water which tracking represents reflects the growing scarcity of fossil fuels. Finally, the paper recalls the “Limits to Growth” arguments, warning that civilization is on track to collapse, without massive changes.

A new cycle of jökulhlaups at Russell Glacier, Kangerlussuaq, West Greenland

AbstractJökulhlaups in 2007 and 2008 from an ice-dammed lake at the northern margin of Russell Glacier, West Greenland, marked the onset of a renewed jökulhlaup cycle after 20 years of stability. We present a record of successive ice-dammed lake drainage events and associated ice-margin dynamics spanning ∼25 years. Robust calculations of lake volumes and peak discharges are made, based on intensive field surveys and utilizing high-spatial-resolution orthophotographs of the lake basin and ice margin. These data enable identification of controls on the behaviour of the ice-dammed lake and provide the first field-based examination of controls on jökulhlaup magnitude and frequency for this system. We find that Russell Glacier jökulhlaups have a much higher peak discharge than predicted by the Clague–Mathews relationship, which we attribute to an unusually short englacial/subglacial routeway and the presence of a thin ice dam that permits incomplete sealing of jökulhlaup conduits between lake drainage events. Additionally, we demonstrate that the passage of jökulhlaups through an interlinked system of proglacial bedrock basins produces significant attenuation of peak discharge downstream. We highlight that improved understanding of jökulhlaup dynamics requires accurate information about ice-dammed lake volume and ice-proximal jökulhlaup discharge.

Resisting ‘Alterity’: Ambedkar and theEthics of Recognition

This paper reveals how mainstream society is organized around the politics of exclusion. An analysis of the primary institutional forces that shape social hierarchies shows that these are all based on the politics of non-recognition and exclusion. Not only do these systems exist as one-dimensional forms of subordination, but they also combine to create a larger, self-reinforcing and interlinking system of oppression. The main argument is that once domination is accepted on the basis of one arbitrary characteristic—race, nationality, sex, sexual orientation, or class— then it is easier to accept it also on the basis of another. On the other hand, if one form of domination is questioned, then it is likely that other forms are also questioned. Even before the world could debate the consequences of exclusion, Ambedkar had realised that the politics of exclusion plays a vital role in a non-materialist discourse of human and citizenship rights, democracy, recognition and respect. Conversely, he vied for a redistributive egalitarian discourse, which does not represent a denial of the material conditions that lie at the heart of marginalization. Rather, it offers an opportunity to transform the politics of marginalization into one that addresses questions of power as well as participatory processes. In this paper I have made an attempt to develop an analytical framework in which the politics of marginalization and exclusion can be both understood and forged. I have done this through the application of a number of concepts in social and political theory and finally posit that at issue are not just the promotion of an ethics of recognition, but also the redistribution of power and an egalitarian discourse.

Integrated Environmental Assessment of Supply‐Side and Demand‐Side Measures for Carbon Dioxide Mitigation in Tokyo, Japan

SummaryBuilding on previously introduced concepts and software, we constructed an interlinked system of models, called an “integrated model project,” for assessing integrated effects of supply‐side and demand‐side technologies and policies for carbon dioxide (CO2) mitigation in urban areas. We used the integrated model project to evaluate scenarios that included introduction of a solid oxide fuel cell combined with a gas turbine topping cycle (SOFC/GT) as a supply‐side technology and reduction of electricity demand by energy conservation and rooftop photovoltaic (PV) cells in residential and commercial buildings as a demand‐side measure in Tokyo, Japan. Modeling results indicate that integrating multiple supply‐side and demand‐side countermeasures can result in more effective mitigation of CO2 emissions. In particular, although separately a moderate CO2 tax and the SOFC/GT technology do not produce large CO2 mitigation, the combination of the two with PV installation could result in a 50% reduction in CO2 emissions in 2050. Cancellation effects of combinations of supply‐side and demand‐side measures were also seen between supply‐side SOFC/GT systems and demand‐side rooftop PV cells, effects that might not be apparent without the integrated environmental assessment approach that we have adopted. An integrated environmental assessment approach using tools such as those described in this article could help researchers to assess these kinds of dynamic, nonlinear effects, which would not be predicted by conventional linear, “additive” approaches.

Securing linked transportation systems: economic implications and investment strategies

The security of the transportation system depends on that of any of its components and how they are interlinked. But the securing of each component is oftentimes in the hand of the agency in whose jurisdiction it falls. Literature on reliability and security economics suggests that when security is defined by the weakest link in an interlinked system, then its level is determined by the agent with the highest cost-benefit ratio, and the other agents have the tendency to under-invest or free ride. When security is a function of total effort, then the opposite obtains and the reliability will depend on the agent with the lowest cost-benefit ratio. These conditions arise in urban transportation. This research explores agency investment behavior in multi-agency urban transportation systems develops guidelines for investments in security. The question to answer: is it preferable to let each agency operate its own security budget and make its own investment decisions or is this process better centralized?