Interhemispheric Temperature Gradient Research Articles

Drought in the Asian summer monsoon region is liked to a weakened inter-hemispheric temperature gradient

Understanding the causes of abrupt hydrologic declines in the Asian summer monsoon region may help limit the adverse effects of such events on the region’s economy and ecology. Here, we provide a high-resolution record of hydrological evolution in the East Asian monsoon margin region since the last deglaciation. Our synthesis of hydrological records in the East Asian monsoon region reveals that northern and southern China were generally wet during the early Holocene, while two significant drought events occurred in northern China under the suppressive effect of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. The hydrological pattern of “southern drought–northern floods” developed during the middle Holocene, and the southward withdrawal of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which was controlled by the inter-hemispheric temperature gradient, along with the enhanced suppression of the East Asian monsoon by the Hadley Circulation, combined to cause synchronous extreme droughts during the mid- to late-Holocene.

An uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics

An ensemble of climate models from phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project shows that temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) are projected to increase globally towards the end of the 21st century. However, climate models show a spatially heterogeneous change in precipitation over the tropics. Consequently, future changes in aridity (a measure of water availability) are complex and location-dependent. We assess future changes in aridity using three climate models and several single-forcing experiments. Near-term (2021–2040) changes in aridity are small, and we focus instead on its long-term (2081–2100) changes. We show that the increase in greenhouse gases (GHG) primarily explains the spatial pattern, magnitude and ensemble spread of the long-term future changes in aridity. On this timescale, the effects of changes in emissions of anthropogenic aerosols are moderate compared to the effects of increases in atmospheric GHG concentrations. Model diversity in the responses to GHG concentration is large over northern Africa and North and South America. We suggest the large uncertainty is due to differences between models in simulating the effects of an increase in GHG concentrations on surface air temperature over the North Atlantic Ocean, on the interhemispheric temperature gradient, and on PET over North and South America.

Interhemispheric Temperature Gradient and Equatorial Pacific SSTs Drive Sahel Monsoon Uncertainties under Global Warming

Abstract The Sahel is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change. Robust estimation of future changes in the Sahel monsoon is therefore essential for effective climate change adaptation. Unfortunately, state-of-the-art climate models show large uncertainties in their projections of Sahel rainfall. In this study, we use 32 models from CMIP6 to identify the sources of this large intermodel spread of Sahel rainfall. By using maximum covariance analysis, we first highlight two new key drivers of this spread during boreal summer: the interhemispheric temperature gradient and equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) changes. This contrasts with previous studies, which have focused mainly on the Northern Hemisphere rather than the global scale, and in which the Pacific Ocean has been neglected in favor of the Atlantic. Next, we unravel the physical mechanisms behind these statistical relationships. First, the modulation of the interhemispheric temperature gradient across the models leads to varying latitudinal positions of the intertropical convergence zone and, consequently, varying Sahel rainfall intensity. Second, models that exhibit less warming than the multimodel mean in the equatorial Pacific, thereby projecting a less “El Niño–like” mean state, simulate enhanced precipitation over the central Sahel in the future through modulations of the Walker circulation, the tropical easterly jet, the meridional tropospheric temperature gradient, and hence regional zonal wind shear. Finally, we show that these two indices collectively explain 62% of Sahel rainfall change uncertainty: 40% due to the interhemispheric temperature gradient and 22% through equatorial Pacific SST.

Quantification of Asian monsoon variability from 68 ka BP through pollen-based climate reconstruction

The glacial-interglacial variability of precipitation and its driving mechanism in monsoonal regions has long been a subject of debate. However, there are few records of quantitative climate reconstruction dating to the last glacial cycle in areas dominated by the Asian summer monsoon. Here, using a pollen-based quantitative climate reconstruction based on three sites in areas exposed to the Asian summer monsoon, we demonstrate that climate has undergone great variability over the past 68 ka. The differences between the last glacial and the Holocene optimum could have been as much as 35%–51% for precipitation, and 5–7 °C for mean annual temperature. Our findings also reveal regional heterogeneity during the abrupt climate events of Heinrich Event 1 and Younger Dryas, that drove drier conditions in southwestern China dominated by the Indian summer monsoon, and a wetter climate in central eastern China. The pattern of variation in reconstructed precipitation, exhibiting strong glacial-interglacial variability, is broadly consistent with the stalagmite δ18O records from Southwest China and South Asia. Our results of reconstruction quantify the sensitivity of the MIS3 precipitation to orbital insolation changes, and highlight the prominent influence of interhemispheric temperature gradients on Asian monsoon variability. Comparison with transient simulations and major climate forcings has shown that the mode of precipitation variability during the transition from the last glacial maximum to the Holocene has been significantly modulated by weak or collapsed Atlantic meridional overturning circulation events in addition to insolation forcing.

Uncertainty in Simulating Twentieth Century West African Precipitation Trends: The Role of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions

AbstractAnthropogenic aerosol emissions from North America and Europe have strong effects on the decadal variability of the West African monsoon (WAM). Anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing is model dependent, but the impact of such uncertainty on the simulation of long‐term WAM variability is unknown. We use an ensemble of simulations with HadGEM3‐GC3.1 that span the most recent estimates in simulated anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing. We show that uncertainty in anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing leads to significant uncertainty at simulating multi‐decadal trends in West African precipitation. At the large scale, larger forcing leads to a larger decrease in the interhemispheric temperature gradients, in temperature over both the North Atlantic Ocean and northern Sahara. There are also differences in dynamic changes specific to the WAM (locations of the Saharan heat low and African Easterly Jet, of the strength of the West African westerly jet, and of African Easterly Wave activity). We also assess effects on monsoon precipitation characteristics and temperature. We show that larger aerosol forcing results in a decrease of the number of rainy days and of heavy and extreme precipitation events and warm spells. However, simulated changes in onset and demise dates do not appear to be sensitive to the magnitude of aerosol forcing. Our results demonstrate the importance of reducing the uncertainty in anthropogenic aerosol forcing for understanding and predicting multi‐decadal variability in the WAM.

Impact of an acceleration of ice sheet melting on monsoon systems

Abstract. The study of past climates has demonstrated the occurrence of Heinrich events during which major ice discharges occurred at the polar ice sheet, leading to significant additional sea level rise. Heinrich events strongly influenced the oceanic circulation and global climate. However, standard climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs) do not consider such potential rapid ice sheet collapse; RCPs only consider the dynamic evolution of greenhouse gas emissions. We carried out water-hosing simulations using the Institute Pierre Simon Laplace global Climate Model (IPSL-CM5A) to simulate a rapid melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, equivalent to +1 and +3 m additional sea level rise (SLR). Freshwater inputs were added to the standard RCP8.5 emission scenario over the 21st century. The contribution to the SLR from Greenland or from Antarctic ice sheets has differentiated impacts. The freshwater input in the Antarctic is diluted by the circumpolar current, and its global impact is moderate. Conversely, a rapid melting of the ice sheet in the North Atlantic slows down the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. This slowdown leads to changes in winds, inter-hemispheric temperature and pressure gradients, resulting in a southward shift of the tropical rain belt over the Atlantic and eastern Pacific region. The American and African monsoons are strongly affected and shift to the south. Changes in the North American monsoon occur later, while changes in the South American monsoon start earlier. The North African monsoon is drier during boreal summer, while the southern African monsoon intensifies during austral summer. Simulated changes were not significant for the Asian and Australian monsoons.

When Eastern India Oscillated Between Desert Versus Savannah‐Dominated Vegetation

AbstractDuring the last glacial period, the tropical hydrological cycle exhibited large variability across orbital and millennial timescales. However, the response of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM), its related impact on terrestrial ecosystems, and associated forcing mechanisms remain controversial. Here we present a marine record of pollen‐inferred vegetation changes suggesting that eastern India shifted from woody‐savanna mosaics during Marine Isotopic Stage 3 to grasslands during the Last Glacial Maximum resulting from large‐scale drying. Our data shows that ISM maximum is in phase with obliquity and precession maxima suggesting a dominant role of the Indian Ocean interhemispheric temperature gradient on glacial ISM variability. Persistent and abrupt dryland expansions of varying magnitude suggest rapid‐scale onset of aridity during Heinrich Stadial events and during the Toba eruption. We propose that the amplitude of ISM drought events are initiated by high latitude and volcanic forcings, although modulated by precession.

South American precipitation dipole forced by interhemispheric temperature gradient

Tropical South American hydroclimate sustains the world’s highest biodiversity and hundreds of millions of people. Whitin this region, Amazonia and northeastern Brazil have attracted much attention due to their high biological and social vulnerabilities to climate change (i.e. considered climate change hotspots). Still, their future response to climate change remains uncertain. On precession timescale, it has been suggested that periods of decreased western Amazonian precipitation were accompanied by increased northeastern Brazilian precipitation and vice-versa, setting an east–west tropical South American precipitation dipole. However, the very existence of this precession-driven precipitation dipole remains unsettled given the scarcity of long and appropriate northeastern Brazilian records. Here we show that the precession-driven South American precipitation dipole has persisted over the last 113 ka as revealed by a northern northeastern Brazilian precipitation record obtained from quartz thermoluminescence sensitivity measured in marine sediment cores. Precession-induced austral summer insolation changes drove the precipitation dipole through the interhemispheric temperature gradient control over the regional Walker circulation and the Intertropical Convergence Zone seasonal migration range. Since modern global warming affects the interhemispheric temperature gradient, our study provides insights about possible future tropical South American hydroclimate responses.

Sources of the Intermodel Spread in Projected Global Monsoon Hydrological Sensitivity

AbstractThe projected monsoon hydrological sensitivity, namely, the precipitation change rate per kelvin of global warming, shows substantial intermodel spread among 40 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. The hydrological sensitivity of the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon is negatively correlated with that of the Southern Hemisphere summer monsoon. The intermodel spread of the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon hydrological sensitivity is mainly attributed to the projected interhemispheric temperature gradients and the associated low‐level cross‐equatorial flows. The intermodel spread of the Afro‐Asia summer monsoon sensitivity is rooted in the projected continent‐ocean thermal gradients, while the spread of the North American monsoon sensitivity is related to the projected sea surface temperature pattern in the tropical eastern Pacific and Atlantic. These findings suggest that further constraining monsoon hydrological sensitivity requires a better projection of the warming rate between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres and between the land and ocean, and the sea surface warming pattern in the tropical eastern Pacific and Atlantic.

Drier tropical and subtropical Southern Hemisphere in the mid-Pliocene Warm Period

Thermodynamic arguments imply that global mean rainfall increases in a warmer atmosphere; however, dynamical effects may result in more significant diversity of regional precipitation change. Here we investigate rainfall changes in the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~ 3 Ma), a time when temperatures were 2–3ºC warmer than the pre-industrial era, using output from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Projects phases 1 and 2 and sensitivity climate model experiments. In the Mid-Pliocene simulations, the higher rates of warming in the northern hemisphere create an interhemispheric temperature gradient that enhances the southward cross-equatorial energy flux by up to 48%. This intensified energy flux reorganizes the atmospheric circulation leading to a northward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and a weakened and poleward displaced Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Convergences Zones. These changes result in drier-than-normal Southern Hemisphere tropics and subtropics. The evaluation of the mid-Pliocene adds a constraint to possible future warmer scenarios associated with differing rates of warming between hemispheres.

Holocene East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Variability in Taiwan

Characterizing the spatiotemporal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) advances our understanding of its rhythm, dynamics, and future impacts. EASM variations during the Holocene have been reconstructed from a variety of geological archives and proxies. However, the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of EASM rainfall during the Holocene remains controversial. Taiwan is geographically suitable for studying the EASM history through its geological archives. Herein, we synthesize the reported lake and peat sedimentary records of the entire Holocene, in addition to the records of mass-wasting and on-land deposition from cores collected from Taiwan to illustrate the EASM induced hydroclimate changes in Taiwan throughout the Holocene. Records from Taiwan indicate that the EASM rainfall maximum occurred during the early Holocene, concurring with other EASM records from monsoon region of southern China. We suggest that the early Holocene EASM rainfall maximum in southern China was mainly forced by the higher Northern Hemisphere summer insolation and sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). A synthesis of EASM rainfall records from across China shows that the timing of Holocene EASM rainfall maximum occurred progressively later from southern to northern China. This time-transgressive EASM rainfall maximum may be due to the latitudinal shift of the westerlies and Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) that induced by changes of interhemispheric temperature gradients (ΔTN‐S) and northern high latitude ice volume. Moreover, records from Taiwan suggest a significant collapse of the EASM in Taiwan at ~4–2 ka BP. Based on the records from Taiwan, coastal East Asian and Tropical Pacific, we propose that the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the WPWP and/or El Niño -Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity may have exerted a strong influence on the EASM rainfall changes during the late Holocene. Moreover, increased EASM rainfall in southern China during the last 2 ka was likely caused by a southward shift of WPSH which was associated with gradual decreases in ΔTN‐S during the late Holocene.

Juxtaposition of Western Pacific Subtropical High on Asian Summer Monsoon Shapes Subtropical East Asian Precipitation

AbstractIncreasing lines of evidence question the homogenous response of Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) precipitation patterns, requiring rethinking of the forcing mechanisms. Here we show a ~15,000‐year quantitative precipitation history based on well‐dated lake levels at Lake Chenghai, subtropical China. Lake levels and the inferred precipitation were high during the Bølling‐Allerød, early and late Holocene, but low during the middle Holocene. The orbital scale precipitation trend is out of phase with boreal summer insolation, the later has been widely suggested as the driver of ASM precipitation. Lake Chenghai long‐term lake levels are synchronous with trends in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, the related zonal sea surface temperature gradients, and interhemispheric temperature gradients. We propose that changes in either the interhemispheric or zonal Pacific temperature gradients modulate the intensity and location of the western Pacific subtropical high, which is juxtaposed on the ASM, leading to heterogeneous hydroclimatic conditions over subtropical East Asia.

Comparing Surface and Stratospheric Impacts of Geoengineering With Different SO2 Injection Strategies

AbstractGeoengineering with stratospheric sulfate aerosols can, to some extent, be designed to achieve different climate objectives. Here we use the state‐of‐the‐art Community Earth System Model, version 1, with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model as its atmospheric component (CESM1(WACCM)), to compare surface climate and stratospheric effects of two geoengineering strategies. In one, SO2 is injected into the tropical lower stratosphere at the equator to keep global mean temperature nearly constant under an RCP8.5 scenario, as has been commonly simulated in previous studies. In another, the Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS), SO2 is injected into the lower stratosphere at four different locations (30°N/S and 15°N/S) to keep global mean temperature, the interhemispheric temperature gradient, and the equator‐to‐pole temperature gradient nearly unchanged. Both simulations are effective at offsetting changes in global mean temperature and the interhemispheric temperature gradient that result from increased greenhouse gases, but only GLENS fully offsets changes in the equator‐to‐pole temperature gradient. GLENS results in a more even aerosol distribution, whereas equatorial injection tends to result in an aerosol peak in the tropics. Moreover, GLENS requires less total injection than in the equatorial case due to different spatial distributions of the aerosols. Many other aspects of surface climate changes, including precipitation and sea ice coverage, also show reduced changes in GLENS as compared to equatorial injection. Stratospheric changes, including heating, circulation, and effects on the quasi‐biennial oscillation are greatly reduced in GLENS as compared to equatorial injection.

Detectable Impact of Local and Remote Anthropogenic Aerosols on the 20th Century Changes of West African and South Asian Monsoon Precipitation

AbstractAnthropogenic aerosols are a key driver of changes in summer monsoon precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere during the 20th century. Here we apply detection and attribution methods to investigate causes of change in the West African and South Asian monsoons separately and identify the aerosol source regions that are most important for explaining the observed changes during 1920–2005. Historical simulations with the GFDL‐CM3 model are used to derive fingerprints of aerosol forcing from different regions. For West Africa, remote aerosol emissions from North America and Europe (NAEU) are essential in order to detect the anthropogenic signal in observed monsoon precipitation changes. The changes are significantly underestimated in the model, however. While natural (volcanic) forcing seems to also play a role, the dominant contribution is found to come from aerosol‐induced changes in the interhemispheric temperature gradient and associated meridional shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. For South Asia, in contrast, changes in observed monsoon precipitation cannot be explained without local emissions. Here the findings show a weakening of the monsoon circulation, driven by the increase of remote NAEU aerosol emissions until 1975, and since then by the increase in local emissions offsetting the decrease of NAEU emissions. The results show that the aerosol forcing from individual emission regions is strong enough to be detected over internal variability. They also underscore the importance of the spatial pattern of global‐aerosol emissions, which is likely to continue to change throughout the expected near‐future decline in global emissions.

South American monsoon response to iceberg discharge in the North Atlantic

Heinrich Stadials significantly affected tropical precipitation through changes in the interhemispheric temperature gradient as a result of abrupt cooling in the North Atlantic. Here, we focus on changes in South American monsoon precipitation during Heinrich Stadials using a suite of speleothem records covering the last 85 ky B.P. from eastern South America. We document the response of South American monsoon precipitation to episodes of extensive iceberg discharge, which is distinct from the response to the cooling episodes that precede the main phase of ice-rafted detritus deposition. Our results demonstrate that iceberg discharge in the western subtropical North Atlantic led to an abrupt increase in monsoon precipitation over eastern South America. Our findings of an enhanced Southern Hemisphere monsoon, coeval with the iceberg discharge into the North Atlantic, are consistent with the observed abrupt increase in atmospheric methane concentrations during Heinrich Stadials.

The Climate Response to Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Can Be Tailored Using Multiple Injection Locations

AbstractBy injecting different amounts of SO2 at multiple different latitudes, the spatial pattern of aerosol optical depth (AOD) can be partially controlled. This leads to the ability to influence the climate response to geoengineering with stratospheric aerosols, providing the potential for design. We use simulations from the fully coupled whole‐atmosphere chemistry climate model CESM1(WACCM) to demonstrate that by appropriately combining injection at just four different locations, 30°S, 15°S, 15°N, and 30°N, then three spatial degrees of freedom of AOD can be achieved: an approximately spatially uniform AOD distribution, the relative difference in AOD between Northern and Southern Hemispheres, and the relative AOD in high versus low latitudes. For forcing levels that yield 1–2°C cooling, the AOD and surface temperature response are sufficiently linear in this model so that the response to different combinations of injection at different latitudes can be estimated from single‐latitude injection simulations; nonlinearities associated with both aerosol growth and changes to stratospheric circulation will be increasingly important at higher forcing levels. Optimized injection at multiple locations is predicted to improve compensation of CO2‐forced climate change relative to a case using only equatorial aerosol injection (which overcools the tropics relative to high latitudes). The additional degrees of freedom can be used, for example, to balance the interhemispheric temperature gradient and the equator to pole temperature gradient in addition to the global mean temperature. Further research is needed to better quantify the impacts of these strategies on changes to long‐term temperature, precipitation, and other climate parameters.

Ocean dominated expansion and contraction of the late Quaternary tropical rainbelt

The latitude of the tropical rainbelt oscillates seasonally but has also varied on millennial time-scales in response to changes in the seasonal distribution of insolation due to Earth’s orbital configuration, as well as climate change initiated at high latitudes. Interpretations of palaeoclimate proxy archives often suggest hemispherically coherent variations, some proposing meridional shifts in global rainbelt position and the ‘global monsoon’, while others propose interhemispherically symmetric expansion and contraction. Here, we use a unique set of climate model simulations of the last glacial cycle (120 kyr), that compares well against a compilation of precipitation proxy data, to demonstrate that while asymmetric extratropical forcings (icesheets, freshwater hosing) generally produce meridional shifts in the zonal mean rainbelt, orbital variations produce expansion/contractions in terms of the global zonal mean. This is primarily a dynamic response of the rainbelt over the oceans to regional interhemispheric temperature gradients, which is opposite to the largely local thermodynamic terrestrial response to insolation. The mode of rainbelt variation is regionally variable, depending on surface type (land or ocean) and surrounding continental configuration. This makes interpretation of precipitation-proxy records as large-scale rainbelt movement challenging, requiring regional or global data syntheses.

Antarctic link with East Asian summer monsoon variability during the Heinrich Stadial–Bølling interstadial transition

Previous research has shown a strong persistence for direct teleconnections between the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and high northern latitude climate variability during the last glacial and deglaciation, in particular between monsoon weakening and a reduced Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). However, less attention has been paid to EASM strengthening as the AMOC was reinvigorated following peak Northern Hemisphere (NH) cooling. Moreover, climate model simulations have suggested a strong role for Antarctic meltwater discharge in modulating northward heat transport and hence NH warming, yet the degree to which Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate anomalies impacted the Asian monsoon region is still unclear.Here we present a new stalagmite oxygen-isotope record from the EASM affected region of central China, which documents two prominent stages of increased 18O-depleted moisture delivery to the region through the transition from Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) to the Bølling–Allerød (B–A) interstadial; this is in general agreement with the other monsoonal records from both NH and SH mid to low latitudes. Through novel comparisons with a recent iceberg-rafted debris (IRD) record from the Southern Ocean, we propose that the two-stage EASM intensification observed in our speleothem records were linked with two massive Antarctic icesheet discharge (AID) events at ∼16.0 ka and ∼14.7 ka, immediately following the peak HS1 stadial event. Notably, the large increase in EASM intensity at the beginning of the HS1/B–A transition (∼16 ka) is relatively muted in the NH higher latitudes, and better aligns with the changes observed in the SH, indicating the Antarctic and Southern Ocean perturbations could have an active role in driving the initial EASM strengthening at this time. Indeed, Antarctic freshwater input to the Southern Ocean during these AID events would have cooled the surrounding surface waters and caused an expansion of sea ice, restricting the southern extent of the SH westerlies. Moreover, increased meltwater flux during IRD events would have freshened Antarctic Intermediate Water, leading to the increased formation of North Atlantic Deep Water and enhanced North Atlantic subsurface heat release, and causing a strengthening of the AMOC during the HS1-Bølling transition. The result of this sequence-of-events would have been warming in the North Atlantic whilst at the same time cooling in the Antarctic. The ensuing interhemispheric temperature gradient would have acted to push the ITCZ northward, weakening the Australian–Indonesian summer monsoon (AISM) whilst intensifying the EASM.

Northern Borneo stalagmite records reveal West Pacific hydroclimate across MIS 5 and 6

Over the past decades, tropical stalagmite δO18 records have provided valuable insight on glacial and interglacial hydrological variability and its relationship to a variety of natural climate forcings. The transition out of the penultimate glaciation (MIS 6) represents an important target for tropical hydroclimate reconstructions, yet relatively few such reconstructions resolve this transition. Particularly, comparisons between Termination 1 and 2 provide critical insight on the extent and influence of proposed climate mechanisms determined from paleorecords and model experiments spanning the recent deglaciation. Here we present a new compilation of western tropical Pacific hydrology spanning 0–160 ky BP, constructed from eleven different U/Th-dated stalagmite δO18 records from Gunung Mulu National Park in northern Borneo. The reconstruction exhibits significant precessional power in phase with boreal fall insolation strength over the 0–160 ky BP period, identifying precessional insolation forcing as the dominant driver of hydroclimate variability in northern Borneo on orbital timescales. A comparison with a network of paleoclimate records from the circum-Pacific suggests the insolation sensitivity may arise from changes in the Walker circulation system. Distinct millennial-scale increases in stalagmite δO18, indicative of reduced regional convection, occur within glacial terminations and may reflect a response to shifts in inter-hemispheric temperature gradients. Our results imply that hydroclimate in this region is sensitive to external forcing, with a response dominated by large-scale temperature gradients.

The non-stationary influence of the Atlantic and Pacific Niños on North Eastern South American rainfall

Rainfall variability over the tropical Atlantic region is dominated by changes in the surface temperature of the surrounding oceans. In particular, the oceanic forcing over Northeast of South America is dominated by the Atlantic interhemispheric temperature gradient, which leads its predictability. Nevertheless, in recent decades, the SST influence on rainfall variability in some tropical Atlantic regions has been found to be non-stationary, with important changes of the Atlantic and Pacific influence on Sahelian rainfall which appear to be modulated at multidecadal timescales. In this work, we revisit the SST influence over Northeast of South America including the analysis of the stationarity of this relationship at interannual timescales. Principal Component Analysis has been applied to the interannual component of rainfall during the March-April-May season. Results show how the SST forcing on the first mode of rainfall variability, which is a dipole-like pattern generated by the changes in the seasonal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, is different depending of the considered period. The response to the SST anomalies in the Pacific basin is opposite to the Atlantic one and affects different areas. The Atlantic Nino influences rainfall variability at the beginning of the XX century and after 1970, while the Pacific Nino plays a major role in the variability of the rainfall in the Northeast of South America from 1970 onwards. The combined effect of both basins after the 1970s amplifies the anomalous rainfall response.