Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change Assessment Research Articles

A perspective on the next generation of Earth system model scenarios: towards representative emission pathways (REPs)

Abstract. In every Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment cycle, a multitude of scenarios are assessed, with different scope and emphasis throughout the various Working Group reports and special reports, as well as their respective chapters. Within the reports, the ambition is to integrate knowledge on possible climate futures across the Working Groups and scientific research domains based on a small set of “framing pathways” such as the so-called representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report (AR5) and the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). This perspective, initiated by discussions at the IPCC Bangkok workshop in April 2023 on the “Use of Scenarios in AR6 and Subsequent Assessments”, is intended to serve as one of the community contributions to highlight the needs for the next generation of framing pathways that is being advanced under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) umbrella, which will influence or even predicate the IPCC AR7 consideration of framing pathways. Here we suggest several policy research objectives that such a set of framing pathways should ideally fulfil, including mitigation needs for meeting the Paris Agreement objectives, the risks associated with carbon removal strategies, the consequences of delay in enacting that mitigation, guidance for adaptation needs, loss and damage, and for achieving mitigation in the wider context of societal development goals. Based on this context, we suggest that the next generation of climate scenarios for Earth system models should evolve towards representative emission pathways (REPs) and suggest key categories for such pathways. These framing pathways should address the most critical mitigation policy and adaptation plans that need to be implemented over the next 10 years. In our view, the most important categories are those relevant in the context of the Paris Agreement long-term goal, specifically an immediate action (low overshoot) 1.5 °C pathway and a delayed action (high overshoot) 1.5 °C pathway. Two other key categories are a pathway category approximately in line with current (as expressed by 2023) near- and long-term policy objectives, as well as a higher-emission category that is approximately in line with “current policies” (as expressed by 2023). We also argue for the scientific and policy relevance in exploring two “worlds that could have been”. One of these categories has high-emission trajectories well above what is implied by current policies and the other has very-low-emission trajectories which assume that global mitigation action in line with limiting warming to 1.5 °C without overshoot had begun in 2015. Finally, we note that the timely provision of new scientific information on pathways is critical to inform the development and implementation of climate policy. Under the Paris Agreement, for the second global stocktake, which will occur in 2028, and to inform subsequent development of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) up to 2040, scientific inputs are required by 2027. These needs should be carefully considered in the development timeline of community modelling activities, including those under CMIP7.

Indigenous peoples at the heritage–climate change nexus: Examining the effectiveness of UNESCO and the IPCC’s boundary work

Abstract There is increasing recognition that Indigenous knowledges have considerable potential to enhance collective understandings of and improve responses to complex ecological threats, such as those to cultural heritage from climate change. At the same time, it appears that Indigenous peoples face structural barriers to participation in international organisations that advance knowledge about those problems. Using the conceptual framework of boundary organisations (BOs) theory and case studies of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and UNESCO, I argue that the lack of meaningful Indigenous engagement in international knowledge institutions is not just an ethical problem; it also undermines the effectiveness of their assessments. The future success of their boundary work partly depends on further engagement with Indigenous stakeholders. At least at the heritage–climate change nexus, the salience, legitimacy, and credibility of IPCC and UNESCO assessments require substantive Indigenous representation alongside other state/non-state parties. Successful experiences in biodiversity governance indicate that incorporating the principles of the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (UNDRIP) would enhance Indigenous engagement in UNESCO and the IPCC.

A Review of the Contribution of Satellite Altimetry and Tide Gauge Data to Evaluate Sea Level Trends in the Adriatic Sea within a Mediterranean and Global Context

The relatively new sea level satellite altimetry and secular coastal tide gauge data made the reconstruction of sea levels on regional and global scales possible about one century back. Due to better estimations of the Earth’s crustal, glacial, tectonic, and other possible motion biases in tide gauge data, some additional improvements can be expected in sea level reconstructions, analysis, and predictions. A more detailed review of published sea level-related results was conducted for the Eastern Adriatic coast, including the operation of the tide gauge network and data processing, crustal movement estimations, and the establishment of a new reference height system in Croatia, based on five tide gauge sea level data. It was shown that sea level variation and trend-related indicators are spatially homogeneous, especially on a sub-Adriatic scale. The regional Adriatic Sea mean sea level rise rate of +2.6 mm/year for the satellite altimetry era (1993–2019) is less than the global mean sea level (GMSL) rise rate of +3.3 mm/year for the period of 1993–2022. Several empirical methods for GMSL projections and expected IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) assessments until the end of the 21st century are considered.

Technological avenues and market mechanisms to accelerate methane and nitrous oxide emissions reductions.

Strategies targeting methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions are critical to meeting global climate targets. Existing literature estimates the emissions of these gases from specific sectors, but this knowledge must be synthesized to prioritize and incentivize CH4 and N2O mitigation. Accordingly, we review emissions sources and mitigation strategies in all key sectors (fuel extraction and combustion, landfilling, agriculture, wastewater treatment, and chemical industry) and the role of carbon markets in reducing emissions. The most accessible reduction opportunities are in the hydrocarbon extraction and waste sectors, where half (>3 Gt-CO2e/year) of the emissions in these sectors could be mitigated at no net cost. In total, 60% of CH4 emissions can be mitigated at less than $50/t-CO2. Expanding the scope of carbon markets to include these emissions could provide cost-effective decarbonization through 2050. We provide recommendations for carbon markets to improve emissions reductions and set prices to appropriately incentivize mitigation.

Exploring Climate Change Adaptation, Mitigation and Marketing Connections

Adaptation and mitigation to the adverse impacts of rising weather and climate extremes require businesses to respond with adequate marketing strategies promoting sustained economic development. Unfortunately, the connections exploring such relationships have not been extensively investigated in the current body of literature. This study investigated the five marketing categories relating to sustainable practices (sustainable marketing, social marketing, green marketing, sustainable consumption and ecological marketing) within core research themes of climate change, global warming and sustainability from a bibliometric approach using the Scopus API. Additional topic modelling was conducted using the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) unsupervised approach on downloaded abstracts to distinguish ideas communicated in time through research and publications with co-occurrences of major Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports and Google search queries. The results confirmed marketing strategies aligned with the theme of sustainability with little work from small developing island nations. Additionally, findings demonstrated that research exploring business strategies through green marketing directed to green consumers with sustainable supply chain management had been dominantly increasing in the literature over recent years. Similarly, social marketing associated with green consumers was a common concern for the public and academics, rising over the years with strong influence from the published IPCC Assessment Reports. This study did not explore other published databases, including climate change-related meeting transcripts and published speeches from corporate and world leaders.

‘Neutral’ Representations of Pacific Islands in the IPCC Special Report of 1.5°C Global Warming

ABSTRACT Pacific Islands are facing some of the most immediate and direct impacts of climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report of 1.5°C Global Warming (SR15) outlines the possibility that some low-lying atolls will become uninhabitable by 2030 and submerged by 2100. I analyse how and where SR15 presents climate change impacts for Pacific Islands. In doing so, I seek to highlight to what extent the IPCC’s structures and pressures influence SR15’s marginalisation of or emphasis on Pacific perspectives and challenges. The main findings that emerge from this discourse analysis are, first, that climate change impacts for Pacific Islands are largely conceptualised as relating to the physical environment and the economy. Second, SR15 frames Pacific Islands as vulnerable; however, it appears to be reflecting a shift in the literature toward recognising Pacific adaptation and resilience. The third finding is that the IPCC explicitly defines and acknowledges Indigenous and local knowledge but frames this knowledge as alternative to scientific expertise. I interpret these findings in the context of the underrepresentation of Pacific authors, the availability of published knowledge for assessment and the IPCC’s claims of neutrality. Pacific leaders and communities continue to advocate for the 1.5°C threshold investigated in SR15 and are mobilising IPCC assessments.

Science for implementation: the roles, experiences, and perceptions of practitioners involved in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

In the climate change arena, the assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), while not policy prescriptive, are important for informing international negotiations and the decisions of policy and practice communities. Since 2015, when the Paris Agreement was adopted, there has been an increasing demand for climate action and calls for the inclusion of a broader base of stakeholders in global assessments. We use publicly available information on IPCC authors, and the results of a survey (n = 29) and interviews (n = 17) with authors who apply science in practice (practitioners), to examine their roles, experiences, and challenges in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment. The results show that while practitioners form only a very small proportion of authors, they contribute real-world experience, including the translation of academic language into meaningful messages for decision-makers. Although familiar with working at the interface of science and practice, study participants described barriers to their participation and shared several recommendations for improving the relevance, uptake, and timeliness of IPCC assessments, and practitioner participation. Our findings indicate that IPCC assessments provide an evidence base to support action on climate change, and due to their skill set, practitioners are often able to make contributions that allow for greater accessibility by decision-makers.Graphical

Climate change: what we know and what not

There is ample scientific knowledge about climate change which is assessed at a frequency of about once every seven years by large, international groups of scientists in the comprehensive reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This presentation attempts a short and digestible summary of the certainties and uncertainties existing about the physics of climate change. For my summary, I strongly rely on the contribution of IPCC’s working group 1 to the most recent IPCC assessment report that was published in 2021. To set the stage, I first present some basics about climate and climate modeling before summarizing the current state of knowledge and then providing a few personal conclusions.

Exploring Narratives on Negative Emissions Technologies in the Post-Paris Era

The 2015 Paris Agreement specified that the goal of international climate policy is to strengthen the global response to climate change by restricting the average global warming this century to “well below” 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. In this context, “Negative Emissions Technologies” (NETs)—technologies that remove additional greenhouse gases (GHGs) from the atmosphere—are receiving greater political attention. They are introduced as a backstop method for achieving temperature targets. A focal point in the discussions on NETs are the emission and mitigation pathways assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Drawing on perspectives from Science & Technology Studies (STS) and discourse analysis, the paper explores the emergence of narratives about NETs and reconstructs how the treatment of NETs within IPCC assessments became politicized terrain of configuration for essentially conflicting interests concerning long-term developments in the post-Paris regime. NETs are—critics claim—not the silver bullet solution to finally fix the climate, they are a Trojan horse; serving to delay decarbonization efforts by offering apparent climate solutions that allow GHGs emissions to continue and foster misplaced hope in future GHG removal technologies. In order to explore the emerging controversies, we conduct a literature review to identify NETs narratives in the scientific literature. Based on this, we reevaluate expert interviews to reconstruct narratives emerging from German environmental non-governmental organizations (eNGOs). We find a spectrum of narratives on NETs in the literature review and the eNGO interviews. The most prominent stories within this spectrum frame NETs either as a moral hazard or as a matter of necessity to achieve temperature targets.

Utilising IPCC assessments to support the ecosystem approach to fisheries management within a warming Southern Ocean

Southern Ocean marine ecosystems are highly vulnerable to climate-driven change, the impacts of which must be factored into conservation and management. The Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) is aware of the urgent need to develop climate-responsive options within its ecosystem approach to management. However, limited capacity as well as political differences have meant that little progress has been made. Strengthening scientific information flow to inform CCAMLR’s decision-making on climate change may help to remove some of these barriers. On this basis, this study encourages the utilisation of outputs from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC’s 2019 Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) constitutes the most rigorous and up-to-date assessment of how oceans and the cryosphere are changing, how they are projected to change, and the consequences of those changes, together with a range of response options. To assist CCAMLR to focus on what is most useful from this extensive global report, SROCC findings that have specific relevance to the management of Southern Ocean ecosystems are extracted and summarised here. These findings are translated into recommendations to CCAMLR, emphasising the need to reduce and manage the risks that climate change presents to harvested species and the wider ecosystem of which they are part. Improved linkages between IPCC, CCAMLR and other relevant bodies may help overcome existing impediments to progress, enabling climate change to become fully integrated into CCAMLR’s policy and decision-making.

Trends and gaps in climate change and health research in North America

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (2014) assessed the state of climate change and health knowledge, globally through the Human Health: Impacts, Adaptation, and Co-Benefits Chapter and regionally through chapters, such as the North America Chapter. With IPCC's 6th Assessment Report scheduled to be released in 2021-22, we asked: how has climate change and health research in North America advanced since the IPCC's 5th Assessment Report in 2014? Specifically, we systematically identified and examined trends in the extent, range, and nature of climate-health research conducted in North America. We used a scoping review methodology to systematically identify literature and map publication trends. A search string was used to search five academic databases. Two independent reviewers first screened titles and abstracts, and then the full texts of articles for relevance. Research articles and reviews using systematic methods published since 2013 were eligible for inclusion, and no language restrictions were applied. To be included, articles had to measure and link climatic variables or hazards to health outcomes in North America. Relevant articles were analysed using descriptive statistics to explore publication trends. The number of climate-health articles has significantly increased since the last IPCC Assessment Report. Published research about climate change impacts, heat-related mortality and morbidity, and respiratory illness taking place in urban centres and in the USA continue to dominate the North American climate-health literature, reflected by the high proportion of articles published. Important research gaps on previously neglected climate-sensitive health outcomes, however, are beginning to be filled, including climate change impacts on mental health, nutrition, and foodborne disease. We also observed progress in research that included future projections of climate-health risks; however, projection research is still relatively nascent and under-studied for many climate-sensitive health outcomes in North America, and would benefit from considering social and demographic variables in models. Important research disparities in geographical coverage were noted, including research gaps in Canada and Mexico, and in rural and remote regions. Overall, these publication trends suggest an improved understanding of exposure-response relationships and future projections of climate-health risks for many climate-sensitive health outcomes in North America, which is promising and provides an evidence-base to inform the IPCC 6th Assessment Report. Despite these advancements and considering the urgent policy and practice implications, more research is needed to deepen our understanding of climate-sensitive health outcomes, as well as examine new arising issues that have limited evidence-bases. In particular, transdisciplinary and cross-sector research, that includes the social sciences, examining current and future climate-health adaptation, mitigation, and the adaptation-mitigation nexus should become a top priority for research, given the urgent need for this evidence to inform climate change policies, actions, and interventions.

The IPCC: A Primer for Archaeologists

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was founded in 1988 to provide governments with policy-relevant assessments of climate science as well as options for adaptation and mitigation. It is now recognized as providing the leading global compilation of climate science, adaptation, and mitigation research. The volunteer scientists who write these reports have carried out five complete assessment cycles, with the sixth cycle to be completed in 2022. Here, we review how information from and about archaeology and other forms of cultural heritage has been incorporated into these reports to date. Although this review shows that archaeology has not been wholly absent from work of the IPCC, we suggest that archaeology has more to offer the IPCC and global climate response. We propose five ways to more fully engage both archaeologists and knowledge from and about the human past in IPCC assessments and reports.

The Effect of IPCC Reports and Regulatory Announcements on the Stock Market

This study explores U.S. public companies’ reactions to scientific announcements by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) with respect to updated climate change knowledge and how it affects their stock valuations, given their carbon emission/environmental outlooks. Based on a sample of total daily returns collected for 10 industry indexes from the S&P 500 Index over the period 1990–2014, and using an event study approach, we analyze the connection between IPCC assessment report announcements and firms’ returns to evaluate panel data models. We found that various sectors, regardless of their carbon profiles, react abnormally to IPCC report announcements without remarkable long-run cumulative effects. The implications of these results are that there is no clear violation of the efficient markets hypothesis, yet short-term profits may be gained. Furthermore, the market still reacts to new scientific announcements, even though 24 years have passed since the first IPCC report. In addition, there is a negative relationship for low and medium carbon-intensive industries, especially in the short term.

Carbon Dioxide Uptake by Cement-Based Materials: A Spanish Case Study

The European parliament has declared a global “climate and environmental emergency” on 28 November 2019. Given that, climate change is a clear strategic issue all around the world. Then, greenhouse gas emissions are reported by each country to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) every year. In addition, The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the “2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories” give the procedure to calculate and manage the national greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. However, these guidelines do not provide any method to consider the net carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere (released in clinker fabrication minus those due to concrete carbonation) by the Portland cement clinker industry. This topic should be implemented in the climatic models of the next IPCC assessment report. This paper provides an easy procedure of estimating net CO2 emissions proposed in the “recarbonation project” (simplified method); that is to say, carbon dioxide uptake during the service-life stage is considered as the 20% of the CO2 released by the calcination (process emissions), whereas the end-of-life and secondary usage is only the 3% of the CO2 released by calcination. The outcome of this study reveals that 31,290.753 tons of carbon dioxide will be absorbed by the cement-based materials produced in Spain with the cements manufactured from 2005 to 2015.

The visual framing of climate change impacts and adaptation in the IPCC assessment reports

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a key source on climate change information. How the IPCC presents and frames this climate information influences how policymakers and various stakeholders worldwide perceive climate change and make decisions accordingly. Visuals are powerful components in this communication. Here, we assess how the visuals (N = 702) in the IPCC Working Group II Assessment Reports frame climate impacts and adaptation. We find that visuals are largely framed as distant in time and space and predominantly portray the threats of climate change rather than possible goals to be achieved. Furthermore, conceptually, they are largely narrow, science-oriented instead of showing a broader multi-impact or multi-strategy evaluation of the impacts on society and necessary adaptations. They primarily depicted what the impacts and adaptations were, with minimal attention to who was impacted or needed to take adaption actions or adopt responsibility. Very few of the visuals in WG II (N = 48, 6.5%) focus on adaptation and those that did often do not show a clear theme, spatial or temporal scale. Our findings suggest that IPCC visuals (still) focus primarily on showing that climate change is real and a problem, with little solution-oriented communication. We recommend that the IPCC pays explicit attention to its visual framing and that approaches are developed to better visualise adaptation.

How Well Do COP22 Attendees Understand Graphs on Climate Change Health Impacts from the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report?

Graphs are prevalent in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), often depicting key points and major results. However, the popularity of graphs in the IPCC reports contrasts with a neglect of empirical tests of their understandability. Here we put the understandability of three graphs taken from the Health chapter of the Fifth Assessment Report to an empirical test. We present a pilot study where we evaluate objective understanding (mean accuracy in multiple-choice questions) and subjective understanding (self-assessed confidence in accuracy) in a sample of attendees of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Marrakesh, 2016 (COP22), and a student sample. Results show a mean objective understanding of M = 0.33 for the COP sample, and M = 0.38 for the student sample. Subjective and objective understanding were unrelated for the COP22 sample, but associated for the student sample. These results suggest that (i) understandability of the IPCC health chapter graphs is insufficient, and that (ii) particularly COP22 attendees lacked insight into which graphs they did, and which they did not understand. Implications for the construction of graphs to communicate health impacts of climate change to decision-makers are discussed.

Tremendous Changes in India after Paris Climate Change Conference

India is the first Nation in the Earth to have made provisions for the conservation, preservation andprotection of environment in its constitution .On 5th June 1972 environment was first discussed as an itemof U.N Conference on human environment development in Stockholm and thereafter our country tooklegislative steps for environmental protection. The Paris Climate Change Conference was successfullyconcluded with the Paris Agreement, which is a Turning Point for the world in Inclusively Oppose climatechange. By Engage in IPCC (Intergovernmental panel on climate change) assessments, adopting newmethods and conducting national climate change assessments, India has been increasing its understandingof the issue. Moreover, this participation indicates India‘s dedication to including climate changes in itsecological balance program, sustainable development and conducts a low-carbon Group and Affluence.The constructive involvement in global governance shows that India is a responsible power to bothdeveloped and under developing nations.

Narrowing the Climate Field: The Symbolic Power of Authors in the IPCC's Assessment of Mitigation

AbstractThis article provides a critical analysis of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as a boundary organization using Bourdieu's concepts of field, habitus, and symbolic power. The article combines quantitative, network, and survey data to explore the authorship of Working Group III's contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These data reveal the dominance of a small group of authors and institutions in the production of knowledge that is represented in the AR5 report, and illuminates how the IPCC's centrality to the field of climate politics is shaping the research and publication strategies of researchers within that field. As a result, the study is able to identify organizational avenues for deepening the involvement and symbolic power of authors from the global South in IPCC assessments of climate change. While empirically, the results of this study lead us to question the IPCC as an assessor of knowledge, theoretically, it suggests that particularly in the international sphere, the use of the boundary organization concept risks overlooking powerful networks of scientific actors and institutions and their broader implication in the politicization of science.

California sea level rise: Evidence based forecasts vs. model predictions

The extreme predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have been the inspiration of hundreds of papers by local panels proposing ever-increasing alarming messages. The latest analyses are on the effect on the surf spots of California of a tidal range added to a sea level rise of 1.67 m. We show that the sea level rises estimate by a local panel for California as well as the IPCC for the entire world are up to one order of magnitude larger than what is extrapolated from present sea level rise rates and accelerations based on tide gauge data sets (California-8, Permanent Service on Mean Sea Level PSMSL-301, Mitrovica-23, Holgate-9, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA-199 and US-71). These extrapolations are consistent with present temperature warming rates and accelerations of different global temperature data sets (University of Alabama in Huntsville UAH and Remote Sensing Systems RSS) and IPCC Assessment Report (AR) 5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 sensitivity. As the evidence from the measurements does not support the IPCC expectations or the even more alarming predictions by the local California panel, these claims and the subsequent analyses are too speculative and not suitable for rigorous use in planning or policy making.

Learning about climate change solutions in the IPCC and beyond

There has been much debate about the assessment process of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Yet two of the most fundamental challenges that directly threaten the ability of the IPCC to fulfill its mandate have been largely neglected so far. Firstly, the magnitude and rapid expansion of the climate change literature makes it increasingly impossible for the IPCC to conduct comprehensive and transparent assessments without major innovations in assessment practices and tools. Secondly, the structure, organization and scientific practices across the social sciences and humanities prohibit systematic learning on climate change solutions and increasingly limit the policy-relevance of IPCC assessments. We highlight the need for responses along three avenues to prepare the IPCC for continued success in the future: 1) IPCC assessments must make better use of big-data methods and available computational power to assess the growing body of literature and ensure comprehensiveness; 2) systematic review practices need to be enshrined into IPCC procedures to ensure adequate focus and transparency in its assessments; 3) a synthetic research culture needs to be established in the social sciences and humanities in order to foster knowledge accumulation and learning on climate solutions in the future. As policymakers become more interested in understanding solutions, the future prospects of global environmental assessment enterprises will depend heavily on a successful transformation within the social sciences and humanities towards systematic knowledge generation. This article is part of a special issue on solution-oriented Global Environmental Assessments.