Interest Rate Spreads Research Articles

Effect of Interest Rate Spread and Bank Specific Factors on Survival of Tier-One and Tier-Two Deposit Money Banks in Nigeria

In today’s economic setting, there must be a healthy banking sector for banks to survive. Banks survival determine sound financial mediator in achieving economic performance. However, bank spread and unstable policies towards bank specific factors have become threat to bank survival in Nigeria. Secondary data and ex-post facto research design were used within the period of 2011-2020 for both Tier-1 and Tier-2 deposit money banks in Nigeria. The study found that interest rate spread, asset quality, management efficiency, bank size and board size affect bank survival in Nigeria. The study suggests that bank managers should give maximum attention to interest rate spread, and bank specific factor like asset quality, management efficiency, bank size and board size so as to ensure their survival.

The Impact of Macroeconomics Factors on the Jakarta Composite Index

This study aims to assess the relationship between macroeconomics factors on the Jakarta Composite Index. The multiple linear regression is employed to examine the impact of four macroeconomics variables namely GDP growth, inflation, interest rate spread, and broad money (money supply) on the Jakarta Composite Index. The result presents that Jakarta Composite Index is negatively affected by inflation and interest rates, while the increase in money supply boost the Jakarta Composite Index. In this study GDP growth has no significant influence on the Jakarta Composite Index. Investors may take advantage of this circumstance, notably they can purchase blue chips when inflation and interest rates rise and sell their shares when the money supply is expanding.

The value of relationship banking: International evidence

This paper analyses whether repeated borrowing from the same bank affects loan contract terms. We find that relationship loans pay less spread and require less collateral compared to non-relationship loans. These effects for relationship loans are not derived from differences between relationship and nonrelationship loans. The reduction of interest rate spread for relationship loans disappeared during the financial crisis. The results also reveal that borrowers paid higher interest rate spreads, had to post more collateral and the maturity was shortened during the crisis period. The reduction in interest rate spread and collateral depends on the protection of creditors’ rights. In countries where creditors’ rights are well protected, relationship loans pay less spread and are required to post less collateral than relationship loans in countries with weak protection of creditors’ rights.

Analysis of the non-linear relationship between Interest Rate Distortions in China’s Shadow Banking System and short-term Capital Flows

ABSTRACT Using semiparametric generalized additive models, we studied how the market-based interest rates in China’s shadow banking system and interest rate distortion affect the country’s short-term capital flows. We used big data of shadow banking products to calculate the shadow banking interest rate and the interest rate distortion index. We improved the indirect measurement method for capital flows and used the bounds testing cointegration approach to measure China’s monthly short-term capital flows. With the calculated data, we estimated the nonlinear impact of shadow banking interest rate spreads and interest rate distortion on short-term capital flows. Results indicate that a higher shadow banking interest rate spread creates greater short-term capital inflows and the degree of interest rate distortion has a non-linear inverted U-shaped effect on short-term capital flows. Thus, the Chinese government should proceed with interest rate liberalization to eliminate the current “dual-track interest rate system” and strengthen the monitoring of cross-border capital flows so as to reduce the risks of abnormal short-term capital flows.

Motivation Analysis of Market and Institution on Corporate Leasing Financialization from the Perspective of Regulatory Arbitrage: Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies

In recent years, more and more real enterprises speculate and arbitrage in the financial market by participating in financial institutions, and the financialization of micro enterprises has become a general trend. However, the empirical conclusions of existing literature from different dimensions of enterprise development are not consistent. This paper uses the data from Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share companies from 2007 to 2019 to perform an empirical analysis on the market and institutional motivations of the entity enterprises’ sharing and holding financial leasing companies (SHFL). It is found that the fundamental reason for enterprises to SHFL is the profit gap between the financial industry and the real industry. The more intense the industry competition, the lower the profit rate, the larger the spread, and the stronger the incentive to SHFL. In addition, the continuous improvement of the national system construction in the financial leasing industry has played an essential role in promoting it. In the heterogeneity analysis, it is found that private enterprises are also motivated to ease financing constraints except interest rate spread. On the contrary, they are not significant in the sample of state-owned enterprises. Equipment manufacturing industries have both narrowing interest rates and equipment promotion motivation, while the non-equipment manufacturing industry has no such characteristics. Finally, the limitations and future research directions of this paper are discussed.

Interest Spread and the Banking Sector Profitability- An Empirical Investigation for Pakistan

The paper is an empirical exploration around the commercial banks’ interest spread and the profitability performance for Pakistani banking industry. Earlier studies have evidently proven the sensitivity of commercial banks financial performance towards the gap between their deposit rate and the lending rate. The present study therefore aims at validating (invalidating) the subject relationship using advance time-series econometric procedures. The study attempts to yield a robust statistical analysis since three different measures of banks’ profitability are employed for the purpose of econometric testing i.e. return on assets, return on equity and earnings per share. The study sample comprises seven major participants from commercial banking sector of Pakistan and the sample study period rangers from year 2002 to 2018. From the series of robust regression models, Newey-West Hetroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent (HAC) estimator is used to test the hypothesized relationship. Valid statistical support is yielded in case of all three measures of profitability; however, return on assets as indicator of profitability receives highest amount of statistical support. The results hold strong policy implications for commercial banking sector of the country, calling for wise management decisions whilst deciding the deposit and the lending and rates since they are key to determining the interest spread observed by a bank which in return determines its profitability margins.

MACROECONOMICS FACTOR: THE IMPACT ON STOCK PRICE INDEX

The objective of this study is to determine the link between macroeconomic variables and JCI, STI, and KLSE which are the stock price indexes of Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia stock price indexes. Multiple linear regression is used to investigate the influence of four macroeconomic factors on the stock market composite index, namely GDP growth, broad money (money supply), inflation, and interest rate spread. The finding indicates that inflation has a negative effect, while interest rate spread positively affecting the stock price Indexes. Investors may profit from this situation by purchasing blue chips when inflation and interest rates are rising.
 Keywords: GDP growth, inflation, interest rate spread, money supply, stock price indexes

Pricing and Hedging Bond Power Exchange Options in a Stochastic String Term-Structure Model

We study power exchange options written on zero-coupon bonds under a stochastic string term-structure framework. Closed-form expressions for pricing and hedging bond power exchange options are obtained and, as particular cases, the corresponding expressions for call power options and constant underlying elasticity in strikes (CUES) options. Sufficient conditions for the equivalence of the European and the American versions of bond power exchange options are provided and the put-call parity relation for European bond power exchange options is established. Finally, we consider several applications of our results including duration and convexity measures for bond power exchange options, pricing extendable/accelerable maturity zero-coupon bonds, options to price a zero-coupon bond off of a shifted term-structure, and options on interest rates and rate spreads. In particular, we show that standard formulas for interest rate caplets and floorlets in a LIBOR market model can be obtained as special cases of bond power exchange options under a stochastic string term-structure model.

A Case Study on Gross and Net Non-performing Assets of State bank of India

The main objective of present study is to examine Gross non-performing assets and net non-performing assets of State Bank of India. For the present case study researcher has select five years period of study started from 2015-16 to 2019-20. Researcher has selected five NPA ratios; Gross NPA, Net NPA, Provision coverage ratio, Cash deposit ratio and Interest spread ratio. Chi- square test; time series analysis (Manually calculated) is applied on selected ratios of non-performing assets of State Bank of India. The study found out that there is no significant association in all selected ratios of state bank of India. It means in all the selected financial years ratios of non-performance assets is similar and null hypothesis is accepted. In this era banking sector has major suffer from non-performing assets. State bank of India is oldest bank with higher market capital. The paper investigates NPA of State Bank of India. This study helps to investors & managerial board for decision making.

A comparative study on determinants of housing mortgage prepayment of individual borrowers

This paper examines how the macroeconomic environment affects the determinants of prepayment of mortgage loans from October 2004 to February 2020. For more accurate analysis, the authors define the timing of prepayment not only before the loan maturity but also at the time when 50% or more of the loan principal is repaid. The results show that, during the global financial crisis as well as the recent period of low interest rates, macroeconomic variables such as interest rate spreads and housing prices have a different effect compared to the normal situation. Also, significant explanatory variables, such as debt to income (DTI) ratio, loan amount ratio and poor credit score, have different effects depending on the macroenvironment. On the other hand, in all periods, the possibility of prepayment increases as comprehensive loan to value (CLTV) increases, and the younger the age, the shorter the loan maturity. The results suggest that, in the case of ultralong (40 years) mortgage loans recently introduced to support young people purchasing houses, the prepayment risk can be, at least partially, migrated by offsetting the increase in prepayment by young people and the decrease in prepayment due to long loan maturity. In addition, this study confirms that the accelerated time failure model compared to the logit model and COX proportional risk model has the potential to be more appropriate as a prepayment model for individual borrower analysis in terms of the explanatory power.

The (not so) quiet period: Communication by ECB decision-makers during monetary policy blackout days☆

We use confidential data to provide an empirical primer on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy quiet period between 2008 and 2021. Breaches of blackout rules happen regularly and their frequency is heterogeneous across ECB Governing Council members. We document that quiet period breaches trigger high-frequency market reactions that are up to more than twice as large as the median market reaction to speeches in inter-meeting periods. Controlling for member and time fixed effects, we find that breaches respond to absolute inflation deviations of policy-makers’ constituencies from the ECB’s target and to interest rate spreads inside the euro area. We also exploit plausibly exogenous variation in the ECB’s rotational voting schedule to show that non-voting members do not engage in strategic communication during the quiet period to lock in their voting peers.

Are all types of real transaction management equal in the eyes of bank lenders?

AbstractThis study examines whether bank lenders react differently to various types of real transaction management (RTM) by borrowing firms. Drawing upon the differential cash and cash flow effects of alternative forms of RTM, we predict and find that banks provide more favorable loan terms, that is, lower interest spread and reduced likelihood of required collateral, for firms reporting more discretionary reductions in research and development (R&D) expenditures. In contrast, lending banks respond unfavorably to borrowers’ engagement in RTM through aggressive sales discounts and overproduction of inventories. Additional analysis reveals that the favorable effect of discretionary R&D reductions on loan pricing is greater (smaller) for borrowing firms with a prior relationship with the bank or with a lower level of cash holdings (loans with longer maturity). Overall, our findings suggest that banks, with their unique payoff functions and monitoring incentives, do not view all forms of RTM negatively.

Asset pricing with a financial sector

AbstractIn this paper, we study the quantitative asset pricing implications of a financial intermediary that faces a leverage constraint. We use a recursive method to construct the global solution that accounts for occasionally binding constraints. Quantitatively, our model generates a high and countercyclical equity premium, a low and smooth risk‐free interest rate, and a procyclical and persistent price–dividend ratio, despite an independently and identically distributed consumption growth process and a moderate risk aversion of 10. As a distinct prediction from our model, we find that when the intermediary is financially constrained, the interest rate spread between interbank and household loans spikes. This pattern is consistent with the empirical evidence that high TED spread coincides with low stock price and high stock market volatility.

Presidents, Fed chairs, and the deviations from the Taylor rule

AbstractThis paper examines whether changes in US presidential administration and central bank turnover during the period 1976–2016 caused regime shifts in Taylor rule deviations. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to construct the welfare-maximizing policy rule and deviations from the optimal rule, we find evidence that politics indeed play a key role in explaining these deviations. In addition to politics, unemployment rates and the interest rate spread significantly account for regime shifts in Taylor rule deviations.

환율 변동성 요인 분석 및 환율 변동성이 실물경제에 미치는 영향

This study empirically analyzes factors that can affect the volatility of the domestic won/dollar exchange rate, which advocates a small open economy, focusing on the United States, a representative key currency country. In addition, the effect of exchange rate volatility on the domestic real economy was analyzed. First, the EGARCH model is estimated in order to extract won/dollar exchange rate volatility. The results show that there is a volatility clustering phenomenon in the won/dollar exchange rate volatility. Next, factors of exchange rate volatility are estimated through the regression analysis. The estimated results indicate that variables of the US currency amount and Korea-US interest rate spread show significant amounts of coefficients, and each variable increase causes the increase of won/dollar exchange rate volatility. This explains that the expansionary monetary policy of the US implemented for domestic business recovery raises won/dollar exchange rate volatility through direct currency channel and portfolio channel. On the other hand, the growth rate of the US shows significant negative coefficient, and the increase of relevant variables leads to the reduction of won/dollar exchange rate volatility. In the results of estimating the SVAR model in order to check the effects of exchange rate volatility on real economy of Korea, the shock of exchange rate volatility increase reduces trades between Korea and the US while limiting the growth rate of Korea. Through the above analysis results, it is expected that unexpected monetary policy(austerity monetary policy) of major key currency countries including the US might expand the won/dollar exchange rate volatility, which could function as an element to restrict domestic real economy.

Analisis Hubungan Spread Of Interest Rate, Fee Based Income, dan Loan To Deposit Terhadap Tingkat Return On Assets (Roa) (Studi Pada BUMN Perbankan yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia)

The aim of this study is: (1) To determine the relationship of interest rate spreads on the level of return on assets of gov owned bank that listed in Indonesia Stock Exchanges. (2) To determine the relationship of fee-based income to the level of return on assets of gov owned bank that listed in Indonesia Stock Exchanges. (3) To determine the relationship of loan to deposit ratio of the rate of return on assets of gov owned bank that listed in Indonesia Stock Exchanges. (4) To determine the relationship of interest rate spreads, fee-based income, and loan-to-deposit ratio of the rate of return on assets together of gov owned bank that listed in Indonesia Stock Exchanges. The method used in this research is descriptive kuantitative. The results of the study partially fee-based income has no significant effect on return on assets, the spread of the interest rate has a significant effect on return on assets, loan to deposit ratio has no significant effect on return on assets, and together spread of interest rate, fee-based income, and loan-to-deposit ratio has a significant influence on the Return on Assets (ROA) of gov owned bank that listed in Indonesia Stock Exchanges

The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Unemployment in Nigeria

The study examined the impact of fiscal policy on unemployment in Nigeria. The main objective of the study is to find out the relationship between fiscal policy like recurrent expenditure, capital expenditure, debt servicing and some variables like inflation rate, interest rate spread, gross fixed capital formation on unemployment. The study used expo-factor research design with Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) in analyzing the data collected from CBN statistical bulletin. The result revealed that government capital expenditure, gross fixed capital formation and debt servicing impacted significantly on unemployment, while inflation rate, interest rate and recurrent government expenditure had insignificant impact on unemployment. Based on the findings, the study concludes that fiscal policy has a significant impact on unemployment. It was recommended that government expenditure should be channeled towards productive sectors which are capable of absorbing the teeming unemployed in the society and not luxuries and stop further acquiring more loans.

Financial Sector Development and Capital Formation: A Comparative Analysis of Nigeria and South Africa

This study examined the effect of financial sector development on capital formation of Nigeria and South Africa using time series data from 1987-2019.Time series data was sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical bulletin and World Bank data base. percentage of capital formation to gross domestic products was used as the function of credit to private sector, broad money supply, interest rate spread and market capitalization ratio. Ordinary least square methods of cointegration, granger causality test, unit root test and Vector error correction model. The study found that the financial sector development explained 64.1 percent variation in Nigeria capital formation as against 46.4 percent variation from South Africa; this implies that the variables have more explanatory powers in Nigeria than South Africa. From Nigeria, the study conclude that credit to private sector have positive and significant effect, interest rate spread have negative and no significant effect while money supply and market capitalization ratio have positive and significant effect on Nigeria capital formation. However, from south Africa, credit to private sector have negative and no significant effect, interest rate spread have positive and significant effect, money supply have positive and no significant effect while market capitalization ratio have positive and significant effect on south African capital formation. It recommends that the need to increase the size of the markets in both countries by increasing the number of financial instruments available to investors so as to increase trading as well as improve liquidity in the markets and government effort to increase the operational efficiency of the financial sector; the banking habit shall be increase and banking density reduced through effective branch banking policies to enhance effective savings mobilization and credit allocation that will bridge the wide savings-investment gap in the economy

Banking Integration in Open, Small Economies of the Pacific Island Countries

Abstract This is the first study to systematically investigate the extent of financial integration in the small, open Pacific Island Countries (PICs). The study applies Autoregressive Distributed Lag co-integration technique on interest rate spreads and covers Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu and Tonga, while controlling for the effects from Australia and the United States for the period 1992 to 2019. In the short run, there is some evidence of regional as well as global integration. In the long run, both regional and global integrations become more pronounced. Explanations, consequences and policy implications are discussed.

Pandemic-scale phylogenomics reveals the SARS-CoV-2 recombination landscape

Accurate and timely detection of recombinant lineages is crucial for interpreting genetic variation, reconstructing epidemic spread, identifying selection and variants of interest, and accurately performing phylogenetic analyses1–4. During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, genomic data generation has exceeded the capacities of existing analysis platforms, thereby crippling real-time analysis of viral evolution5. Here, we use a new phylogenomic method to search a nearly comprehensive SARS-CoV-2 phylogeny for recombinant lineages. In a 1.6 million sample tree from May 2021, we identify 589 recombination events, which indicate that around 2.7% of sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes have detectable recombinant ancestry. Recombination breakpoints are inferred to occur disproportionately in the 3' portion of the genome that contains the spike protein. Our results highlight the need for timely analyses of recombination for pinpointing the emergence of recombinant lineages with the potential to increase transmissibility or virulence of the virus. We anticipate that this approach will empower comprehensive real-time tracking of viral recombination during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and beyond.