Interest Rate Pass-through Research Articles

A bank-level analysis of interest rate pass-through in South Africa

We study the pass-through of policy rate hikes and cuts to household and corporate lending and deposit interest rates in South Africa over the period January 2009 to December 2020. We show that rate hikes are typically passed through to mortgage interest rates completely while rate cuts are not. This asymmetry is more prevalent for household than corporate mortgages. Pass-through to household and corporate call deposit interest rates is typically complete, but cheque account interest rates are highly sticky and experience weak pass-through. Our results indicate that banks’ pass-through decisions often impose greater costs on households than firms, and may blunt the stimulatory effect of rate cuts by weakening their impact on debt servicing costs and the remuneration of deposit balances.

Interest Rate Pass-Through in Türkiye: Evidence of the Monetary Policy Approach

Central banks direct banks' rates by increasing or decreasing policy rates through the interest rate channel. The effectiveness of this channel is related to the interest rate pass-through. The pass-through of interest rates indicates the impact of changes in policy rates on the retail rates of banks. Pass-through is not only a prerequisite for the monetary transmission mechanism but also is the first stage of it. A complete and quick pass-through increases the effectiveness of the interest rate channel. This paper focuses on the monetary policy approach and uses the ARDL and NARDL models to analyze the relationship between the policy rate and the lending rate in order to test the interest rate pass-through for Türkiye. To enable a comparison of the degree of pass-through and the speed of adjustment, this paper focuses on two time periods: 2011:01–2016:12 and 2017:01–2023:10. The findings of the paper indicate that there are three shreds of evidence for the interest rate pass-through in Türkiye. It is symmetric for both periods. The level of pass-through in the initial period exceeds that of the subsequent period. The rate of adjustment in the second period is faster than in the first one.

The interest rate pass-through by loan size: Evidence for Mexico, 2011-2019

This paper measures the impact of changes in the central bank's reference rate on bank lending rates at both the aggregate level and by loan size. Our data come from the payroll and personal loan markets in Mexico for the period comprising 2011 to 2019. We use an autoregressive model with distributed lags, which allows for the possibility of asymmetric effects. The results show, among other findings, that the pass-through is small; it is not necessarily positive; asymmetric behaviour cannot be ruled out; and, its value depends on the loan size. These results imply that the effectiveness of monetary policy is weakened, in addition to the fact that the reaction of banks to changes in the target interest rate may have distributional implications. The originality of the paper lies in the grouping of interest rates by loan size and the use of a methodology that allows us to assess the existence of asymmetries. Its main shortcoming is the lack of data regarding the characteristics of the borrowers.

Interest rate pass-through to deposit rates in Greece

Deposits of firms and households are the main source of bank funding and, thus, interest rates on deposits have a significant impact on banks’ overall funding costs and loan supply, as well as on bank profitability. Since July 2022, when the latest cycle of increases in key ECB interest rates started, deposit rate increases have been rather limited in Greece and the euro area, compared to the corresponding rise in the relevant policy rate, and weaker relative to the previous tightening cycle of 2005-2008. This article examines the pass-through of ECB policy rate increases to the interest rates on household and corporate deposits in Greece in the light of the fundamental policy and structural changes that have occurred in the Greek banking system since the financial and sovereign debt crisis, as well as due to the pandemic crisis. The empirical results show the relative stickiness of deposit rates for households, compared to those for corporations, especially for term deposits. During the current tightening cycle, overnight deposit rates show a very limited rise – almost zero in the case of households; this development could have been underpinned by the composition of the deposit base of Greek banks, mainly consisting of low-balance household deposits, which are not very sensitive to interest rate changes. Broadly speaking, factors such as the increased supply of deposits to banks, relative to bank lending to the economy, and imperfect competition in the banking system appear to account for a weaker pass-through of policy rate increases to deposit rates. However, overall, we do not find strong evidence that excess liquidity in the banking system has contributed to a weaker pass-through to deposit rates in Greece, which could be related to the fact that the terms and conditions of unconventional monetary policy tools were often adjusted to support the monetary policy stance.

Interest Rate Pass-Through in Euro Area Mortgage Markets: The Long Shadow of the Great Financial Crisis

Abstract The tightening of monetary policy in response to the recently observed surge in inflation has focussed attention on the potential impact of changes in policy rates on European mortgage holders. Central to this question is the pass-through of policy rates to the mortgage rate charged in residential markets across the Euro Area as housing costs have contributed significantly to recent inflationary pressures. In particular, how much and how quickly does the change in the Euro Area policy rate pass-through to the mortgage rate in a particular member country’s market? The effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism has been impaired in a number of ways by the continuing effects of the great financial crisis (GFC). In this article, we seek to examine the manner in which the pass-through relationship between Euro Area policy rates and representative mortgage market rates has been impacted by financial sector considerations such as the degree of concentration in the sector, banks’ holdings of impaired loans, and the overall level of financial stress in the economy. Overall, our empirical findings indicate the level of financial stress experienced during the GFC has had a major impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in the Euro area. This article suggests that the GFC still has implications for the efficacy of current monetary policy in the Euro Area through several different but related channels. (JEL codes: E52, F45, and G21)

INTEREST RATE PASS-THROUGH IN UKRAINE: EVIDENCE FROM THE BANK OWNERSHIP

A full-scale war started by russian federation on February 24th, 2022 disrupted the classic monetary policy Ukraine has been conducting for years. Nevertheless, it remains critical to preserve price stability. In June 2022, NBU significantly increased its key policy rate aiming to decrease inflationary pressure through higher market interest rates. Hence, the Central bank still relies on the interest rate transmission mechanism despite the war. This research is focused on the transmission of the key policy rate changes to the commercial bank interest rates depending on the banking sector structure. We believe that this research is useful not only for the west academia but policymakers since it helps to assess monetary policy efficiency. We tested the transmission of changes in key policy rates on new loans’ and deposits’ interest rates of different maturities and groups of banks based on banks’ ownership that in the case of Ukraine closely connected to the bank's efficiency. We applied autoregressive distributed lag models with error correction forms. Our research confirms that interest rate pass-through from the key policy rate to the bank interest rates differs for banking groups. Less effective banks have more powerful transmission to their new deposits interest rates and weaker to new loans interest rates, therefore, exposed to interest risk. Moreover, according to our results, interest rate pass-through is weaker with higher maturity among both deposits and loans.

Interest rate pass-through and bank risk-taking under negative-rate policies with tiered remuneration of central bank reserves

We identify the effects of negative rates on bank behavior using difference-in-differences identification. First, we find that going negative can interrupt not only the pass-through from policy to deposit but also to mortgage rates. To preserve their deposit franchise, banks finance negative deposit with increased mortgage spreads, the more the bigger their market power. Second, negative rates on reserves induce banks to cut some reserves without replacement and replace others with riskier assets. Together with increased mortgage spreads, balance sheet restructuring preserves profits but risk-taking increases. Third, pass-through interruption and risk-taking can be reduced through tiered remuneration.

The EURIBOR surge and bank deposit costs: an investigation of interest rate pass-through and deposit portfolio rebalancing

En el actual contexto de notable endurecimiento de la política monetaria, en este artículo se estudian los vínculos entre el coste de los depósitos bancarios y el euríbor. Para ello, los autores utilizan un modelo multivariante SVAR que incluye los tipos de interés y los volúmenes de depósitos con datos mensuales que cubren el período 2003-2019. Se constata que los aumentos del euríbor se transmiten a los tipos de interés de los depósitos bancarios en España y, en particular, presionan al alza los tipos de los depósitos a plazo. Asimismo, los incrementos del euríbor han dado lugar a desplazamientos desde los depósitos a la vista hacia los depósitos a plazo. El coste de los depósitos bancarios se ha incrementado a través de ambos mecanismos. En el artículo se documenta que, en 2022, la traslación del euríbor a los tipos de los depósitos fue más limitada de lo que habría cabido esperar de acuerdo con el patrón histórico recogido por los resultados del modelo y, en consecuencia, la subida del coste de los depósitos bancarios ha sido menor de lo esperado. Con el fin de conocer los motivos determinantes de este patrón, los autores analizan varias economías de la zona del euro. Los análisis de correlación sugieren que el impacto del euríbor en los tipos de interés y los costes de los depósitos fue menos acusado en los sectores bancarios con mayor exceso de liquidez y un grado mayor de concentración del mercado.

The EURIBOR surge and bank deposit costs: an investigation of interest rate pass-through and deposit portfolio rebalancing

Against the backdrop of sharp monetary policy tightening, this article studies the links between bank deposit costs and the EURIBOR. In doing so the authors employ an SVAR multivariate model that jointly includes deposit rates and volumes, fitted on monthly data covering the period 2003-2019. Increases in the EURIBOR are found to pass through to bank deposit rates in Spain, pushing up interest rates on term deposits in particular. In turn, increases in the EURIBOR triggered shifts from sight to term deposits. Through both mechanisms, bank deposit costs increased. The article documents that in 2022 the pass-through from the EURIBOR to deposit rates is falling short, relative to what would be expected according to the historical pattern captured by model results; as a result, the increase in bank deposit costs has been weaker than expected. To draw insights into the reasons behind this pattern, the authors analyse several euro area economies. Correlation analyses suggest that the impact of the EURIBOR on deposit rates and costs was weaker in banking sectors with greater excess liquidity and higher market concentration.

Financial development, interest rate pass-through and interest rate channel of monetary policy

The paper examined the interest rate operations and processes in Nigeria and examined the role of financial development in incentivizing central bank monetary policies from the monetary policy rate to the money market rates, lending rates, and deposit rates. The analysis covered the period from 1981 to 2021 with sub-samples for 1981 to 2011 and 1991 to 2021 to test the consistency of the findings. The findings confirmed that interest rate pass-through is incomplete for Nigeria, albeit to a lower degree in the short run compared to the long run. The reasons for this may be due to interest rate stickiness, problems of asymmetric information, and bank switching costs. Also, the findings confirmed that financial development weakens the impact of monetary policy on the interest rate pass-through process, while the analysis of the asymmetric mean adjustment lags confirmed that changes in the policy rate are transmitted to the deposit and lending rates within the year it was announced. The analysis confirmed that the results across each sub-sample and the robustness tests are consistent with the main analysis. Therefore, it is imperative that policymakers should account for financial development when designing monetary policy effectiveness since it can hinder or strengthen the interest rate monetary policy channel.

Impact of capital regulation on interest rate pass‐through in Sub‐Saharan Africa

AbstractUsing monthly data from 2005 to 2019, we employ a dynamic heterogeneous cross‐sectionally autoregressive distributed lag (CS‐ARDL) model to examine the impact of higher regulatory capital requirements on the interest rate pass‐through (IRPT) to bank lending and deposit rates in 22 Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) countries. Two key findings emerge from the investigation: (i) the average IRPT in SSA is incomplete in the long run, and (ii) stringent (higher) regulatory capital requirements reduce the pass‐through of monetary policy to commercial bank lending and deposit rates. The findings suggest that although higher regulatory capital requirements are an effective macro‐prudential tool for enhancing the stability of the banking sector, they could also have the unintended consequences of limiting economic expansion. This trade‐off calls for a careful analysis and balance in the implementation of monetary and bank regulatory policies in the region.

Testing the consistency of asymmetric interest rate pass-through: The case of Indonesia

This paper investigates the consistency of asymmetric interest rate past-trough (IRPT) using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag framework. Superior to the previous studies, this study exploits the historical profile of Indonesia to enrich the analysis. Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) which crashed the country in 1998 and several monetary policy changes implemented by the government offer different perspectives to grasp IRPT. The results of this study indicate that there is a consistent upward rigidity in the long-run pass-through in Indonesia. Particularly during the AFC, it is well proven that the asymmetric behavior is fickle whether disappear or bounce back to the downward rigidity. This finding demonstrates the importance of a rolling-window approach in understanding IRPT.

The interest rate pass-through by loan size: Evidence for Mexico, 2011-2019

This paper measures the impact of changes in the central bank's reference rate on bank lending rates at both the aggregate level and by loan size. Our data come from the payroll and personal loan markets in Mexico for the period comprising 2011 to 2019. We use an autoregressive model with distributed lags, which allows for the possibility of asymmetric effects. The results show, among other findings, that the pass-through is small; it is not necessarily positive; asymmetric behaviour cannot be ruled out; and, its value depends on the loan size. These results imply that the effectiveness of monetary policy is weakened, in addition to the fact that the reaction of banks to changes in the target interest rate may have distributional implications. The originality of the paper lies in the grouping of interest rates by loan size and the use of a methodology that allows us to assess the existence of asymmetries. Its main shortcoming is the lack of data regarding the characteristics of the borrowers.

The Chinese Banking Sector's Structured Deposits: Growth, Role in Interest Rate Pass-Through, and Implications

The Chinese Banking Sector's Structured Deposits: Growth, Role in Interest Rate Pass-Through, and Implications

The Empirical Study of Interest Rate Pass-Through in Cambodia: An Error Correction Model

ABSTRACT The error correction model was used to explore the influence of domestic and international interest rates, proxied by the 6-Month and 1-Year SIBOR, on the borrowing interest rate of bank. The primary goal of this study was to determine the pass through from the predicted borrowing rate to the lending rate. The empirical findings of this study confirmed the existence of a long-run relationship between the borrowing rate and its explanatory variables, as evidenced by the two-step co-integration test. Domestic and foreign interest rates have a substantial long-run influence on the borrowing rate. Short-term borrowing rate changes were also impacted by changes in market interest rates and SIBOR rates. The predicted borrowing rate from co-integration equation had a positive significant impact on the lending rate claimed that there had a pass through from foreign to domestic lending rate. Keywords: ECM, Interest rate pass through, Borrowing rate, Market Rate, SIBOR.

Interest Rate Pass-through in Pakistan: Evidence from Transfer Function Approach

The transmission of monetary policy through the interest rate mechanism has been thoroughly discussed in economic literature for quite some time. The traditional view is that, the change in real interest rate influences the cost of capital. The change in cost of capital affects the magnitude of investment and consumption and therefore the level of, real income and prices [Mishkin (1995)].1 Operationally the State bank of Pakistan, influences the yield on treasury bills (T-bills). This is done on the assumption that the yield on treasury bills influences other interest rates like the Money Market rate (Call money rate), banks’ deposit and banks’ Lending rates. The change in these rates influences the cost of capital and thus level of investment and consumption in the economy. Given this, the central bank can influence the yield on T-bills to influence the level of real income and the level of prices. The foregoing explanation of the monetary transmission mechanism makes it clear that if the changes in yield on the T-Bill rate are not passed on to the Call money rate and the bank deposit and the Lending rate then it becomes difficult for the central bank to use the channels that involve interest rate, for influencing the level of output and prices. Hence it is important to test whether the changes in the treasury bill rate are passed on to money market rate, bank deposit rate and the bank lending rate and if yes at what speed and to what extent. Therefore this study examines the pass-through of the changes in Treasury bill rate to Call Money rate, Banks’ deposit rate and Banks’ Lending rate.

Observed and expected interest rate pass-through under remarkably high market rates.

This paper investigates the pass-through from observed and expected policy interest rates to the remarkably high lending rates in the Brazilian economy, accounting for financial-institution specific characteristics, borrower types, asymmetric adjustment and persistence in loan rates. We use a unique and non-public dataset with expected variables identified by professional forecasters and apply a fixed-effects approach to alternative specifications as robustness checks. Financial institutions correctly forecast the next target level of the policy rate and anticipate adjustments in their loan rates. There is evidence of over-proportional and positively asymmetric pass-through to loans with higher interest rate margins, implying a positive correlation between degrees of pass-through and spreads across persistent lending rates. These findings contribute to explain why loan interest rates are so high in the Brazilian economy.

Interest Rate Pass-through in Nigeria: An Asymmetric Cointegration Approach

This paper empirically examines the pass-through of the Central Bank of Nigeria policy rate to commercial banks’ retail rates. The study covers the pre-liberalization (1962M01–1987M07) and post-liberalization (1987M08–2020M09) periods, and emplys asymmetric cointegration and error-correction modelling approach. The empirical results indicate that the pass-through is incomplete during both periods, though, it is larger during the pre-liberalization period. The study further reveals that the banking crises lead to an increase in the lending rate in the long and short run. The effect of the crises on the deposit rate is also positive but only significant in the short run. The empirical analysis demonstrates that all the threshold cointegration tests for the two sample periods exhibit asymmetric behaviour. The retail loan/lending rate adjustment to changes in the policy rate during both periods appears asymmetric with upward rigidity. The finding supports the adverse customer reaction hypothesis, suggesting that banks are more rigid in raising loan rates than reducing them. The results also support customer reaction on the deposit side, showing among others, downward rigidity in deposit rates in both periods. Therefore, the study recommends that the monetary authorities should strengthen monetary operations to ensure efficient transmission of monetary policy rate. There is also a need for measures that can enhance competitiveness in the banking sector and improve the efficacy of the interest rate channel. More commitments to preventing a systemic crisis in the industry and those that can effectively contain unavoidable ones are also desirable.

Interest rate pass-through and cost channel of monetary policy: Evidence from minimum distance estimation of DSGE model for Pakistan

Understanding the monetary policy transmission mechanism is pivotal for the design of an effective monetary policy. In this regard, the coexistence of interest rate and cost channel of monetary policy has raised important implications for the conduct of monetary policy. This article estimates a New Keynesian model to quantify the strength of interest rate and cost channel by estimating retail rate stickiness and share of firms considering interest rate in their marginal cost function. It examines the extent of interest rate pass-through and cost channel for exogenous monetary policy shock and endogenous movement in official rate arising due to other financial, nominal, and real shocks in the economy. The trade-off between the degree of pass-through and cost channel of monetary policy has also been examined. The minimum distance estimation of the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model has confirmed that the degree and nature of interest rate pass-through depend on the nature of shock hitting the economy and the cost channel exists only for monetary and financial shocks. A weak trade-off also exists between the degree of pass-through and cost channel of monetary policy. The study recommends that coordination between central banks and financial and non-financial firms is essential for effective stabilization through monetary policy.

Asymmetric interest rate transmission in an inflation-targeting framework: The case of Colombia

After adopting an inflation targeting framework for monetary policy at the turn of the twenty-first century, Banco de la República, the Central Bank of Colombia, started actively using the monetary policy interest rate as its key policy tool. This paper examines the interest rate pass-through from the monetary policy rate to the retail rates in Colombia and explores asymmetries in the adjustment process within the framework of a nonlinear version of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) models developed by Shin, Yo, and Greenwood-Nimmo (2014). The findings show that the policy rate plays a key role in determining deposit and lending retail rates, but the nature of the pass-through varies across different types of products. In the case of lending rates, the pass-through is nearly complete and takes around 12 months to be nearly complete. The results capture an asymmetric pass-through in deposit rates—i.e., greater when the policy rate is increased than when it is reduced—and an upward rigidity in the lending rates of consumer and ordinary corporate loans, implying that major retail lending rates respond more to policy rate cuts than to hikes, indicating that financial intermediaries are more reluctant to raise interest rates than to decrease them following policy adjustments. Results are robust to the inclusion of additional regressors.