Interesting Changes Research Articles

Interest Rate Skewness and Biased Beliefs

ABSTRACTConditional skewness of Treasury yields is an important indicator of the risks to the macroeconomic outlook. Positive skewness signals upside risk to interest rates during periods of accommodative monetary policy and an upward‐sloping yield curve, and vice versa. Skewness has substantial predictive power for future bond excess returns, high‐frequency interest rate changes around Federal Open Market Committee announcements, and survey forecast errors for interest rates. The estimated expectational errors, or biases in beliefs, are quantitatively important for statistical bond risk premia. These findings are consistent with a heterogeneous‐beliefs model in which one of the agents is wrong about consumption growth.

Banks’ net interest rate spread and the transmission of monetary policy in Korea

In the transmission of monetary policy, banks’ administered interest rates set by their market power may not coordinate well with the policy intention. In this study, we examine the effect of banks’ net interest rate spread (NIS) on real economic growth in response to changes in the benchmark interest rate in Korea. We find that the market power component of the NIS interacting with the benchmark rate significantly affects the prediction of future economic growth, especially under loosening monetary policy. Our findings indicate that when the policy interest rate decreases to boost the economy, monopolistic banks widen the NIS by sluggishly adjusting the lending rate, which dampens the growth effect. This misalignment remains consistent when we focus on the subperiod after the 2008 financial crisis and use alternative measures for our main variables.

Research on the Measurement of Central Bank Communication Index and its Impact on the Macroeconomy

With the increasing size of financial assets and the complexity of monetary patterns, countries around the world are gradually becoming more transparent in their monetary policies, using central bank monetary policy communication as a new type of monetary policy instrument. To measure central bank communication more accurately, this paper proposes a dynamic topic model, LDA-BP, based on branching processes, to construct the central bank communication index. At the same time, this paper does four things: it uses the constructed communication index as a proxy variable for the new monetary policy instrument; it builds a TVP-FAVAR model that can extract potential macroeconomic information from many variables, and its time-varying nature can better reflect the dynamic regulatory effect of monetary policy; it constructs a three-dimensional impulse response diagram; and it conducts a systematic analysis of macroeconomic impact. The experimental results of demonstrate its effectiveness on central bank monetary policy communication, as it captures timely information about conventional monetary policy instruments and immediately responds to changes in interest rates and money supply. All three monetary policy instruments are effective in smoothing output volatility, with monetary policy communication having a longer-term impact on the macroeconomy.

Income inequality in terms of a Gini coefficient: a Kaleckian perspective

Abstract This study presents a theoretical framework that connects functional income distribution and personal income distribution from the Kaleckian perspective and investigates the effects of changes in mark-up rate and interest rate on income inequality in terms of the Gini coefficient. The results demonstrate that a rise in the mark-up rate with weak bargaining power of workers raises the Gini coefficient irrespective of a profit-led or wage-led demand regime. The analyses also demonstrate that a decline in the interest rate negatively affects the Gini coefficient if and only if the bargaining power of workers is sufficiently strong.

Analysis on the Currency Policies in Respond to the Economic Recession after COVID-19 in the United States

The March 2020 onset of the COVID-19 recession precipitated an unparalleled fall in economic activity throughout the planet. To combat recessions, central bank policymakers employed various expansionary monetary policies. Through a literature study, the paper focuses on a discussion of the monetary policies adopted by the Federal Reserve of the United States. This paper examines three basic areas of monetary policy: regulatory changes led by the Federal Reserve, interest rate changes, and loan and asset acquisitions or quantitative easing. The study not only provides a full explanation of the adopted policies, but also takes a critical and objective look at the overall currency policies adopted by the Federal Reserve of the United States. Following an economic downturn, the report concludes that the Fed's measures were effective in commencing a period of economic recovery for the nation.

Applications of the Status Quo Bias in Consumer Rationality, Predictive Analytics, and Medicine

The status quo bias is a heuristic that indicates people are more likely to stick with the default option and not willing to make changes even if making the change is more beneficial when they are making choices, and the status quo bias gets more robust when there are more options, or the new choices appear to be more intricate. This heuristic dramatically influences people's behavior while making choices, so its essential to know how it modifies people's choice-making strategy in different markets to eliminate possible errors and make more precise predictions. Based on previous research and studies, this article explains the basic concept of status quo bias and discusses three applications of status quo bias in three different fields. The first application discusses the connection between consumer rationality and the status quo, which indicates that knowing the effect of the status quo helps companies to know better the consumers' willingness to switch to alternative options. The second application indicates that the status quo bias makes people underestimate the interest rate change in bond markets. Finally, the third application shows that the status quo bias helps the governments to enact better policies to encourage more organ donors.

Unusual Changes in the U.S. Treasury Security Market During the Fourth Round of Quantitative Easing

Abstract The Covid-19 Pandemic and policy response rattled the US Treasury markets. Conventional US Treasuries, inflation adjusted US Treasuries, and the relationship between the two developed in ways such that ignoring changes in real interest rates yielded distorted inflation expectations estimates. Since the beginning of the pandemic, monetary policy kept nominal rates low and close to zero, but positive. Real rates, on the other hand, became increasingly negative. The relationship between the two market rates became negatively correlated, and distorted because of the fourth round of quantitative easing, along with the Fed preventing nominal yields from turning negative. Federal Reserve actions during the Covid-19 pandemic drove a larger wedge between nominal interest rates and real interest rates in the inflation adjusted market.

Financial markets, inflation and growth: The impact of monetary policy under different political structures

This study assesses the likely effects of different political structures on economic growth by the effects of interest rate on the linkage between financial markets. For this aim, we chose two developing economies with different governance structures, Iran and Argentina. There is a political structure in Iran influenced by religion, whereas Argentina’s political structure does not deal with religion. We first assess the causality amongst the financial markets of the stock market, bank deposits, and the foreign currency market (CM). Then, the effects of the markets and inflation on economic growth are assessed using Granger-causality tests and Markov-switching models. The results show that there are bidirectional causalities between the financial markets in Iran, and unidirectional causalities in Argentina. The markets affect economic growth in the both countries. For Iran, the monetary policy instrument of interest rate indicates no causalities to the markets, whereas there are strong causalities from interest rate to the markets in Argentina. As a result, Argentinian Central Bank can affect economic growth through the money flow between the markets by freely changing interest rate proportioned with the economic situation. Whereas there is no such a possibility for Iran’s Central Bank. In other words, an active Central bank against the inflation volatility in Argentina versus a passive Central Bank in Iran is one of the consequences of the interest rate repression in a political structure influenced by religion.

Kebijakan Lindung Nilai (Hedging) pada Perusahaan untuk Menjamin Kinerja Perusahaan

Risk fluctuations, including such changes in interest rates, exchange rates, and commodity prices, have a negative impact on business performance and can be mitigated by hedging. Derivative instruments are the preferred method for hedging. Internal hedging calculations take into account size, growth prospects, financial distress, leverage, and liquidity. This study's goal is to examine the variables that influence the hedging decisions of businesses. This study employs a descriptive qualitative methodology. The most influential factors in determining a company's hedging strategy are its size and growth prospects, according to the research. The greatest effect comes from the company's size and growth potential in order to influence the company's hedging policies. Other factors such as leverage, liquidity, financial distress, market depth risk are not so dominant in influencing the company's hedging decisions. However, several variables or factors that are not the dominant factor will be important according to the industry or line of business of each company.Recommendations for further research can be carried out by analyzing the company's external factors that influence hedging decisions.

Business cycle accounting: What have we learned so far?

AbstractWhat drives recessions and expansions? Since it was introduced in 2007, there have been hundreds of business cycle accounting (BCA) exercises, a procedure aimed at identifying classes of models that hold quantitative promise to explain economic fluctuations. This paper contributes with a software—a graphical user interface that allows practitioners to perform BCA exercises with minimal effort—and exemplifies the procedure by studying the U.S. recessions in 1973 and 1990 and reflecting upon the critiques BCA has been subject to. We look into the many equivalence theorems that the literature has produced and that allow BCA practitioners to identify the theories that are quantitatively relevant for the economic period under study. The methodological extensions that have been brought forth since BCA's original inception are addressed as well as conclusions regarding the relative contribution of each wedge: GDP and investment are usually driven by an efficiency wedge, hours worked are closely related to the labor wedge and, in an open economy extension, the investment wedge helps to explain country risk spreads on international bonds. Finally, larger changes in interest rates and currency crises are usually associated with the investment and/or the labor wedge.

INTEREST RATES IN INDONESIAN BANKS' ASYMMETRIC BEHAVIOR AND DEGREE OF PASSTHROUGH

Interest rate changes result in a trade-off between reducing inflation and capital inflows. Capital inflow will reduce money market interest rates as low as possible, followed by lower lending and deposit rates. On the other hand, it is difficult to lower the benchmark interest rate due to inflation pressure. The asymmetric movement of lending and deposit interest rates to the benchmark interest rate has caused disturbances to the monetary transmission mechanism. The results of the estimated error-correction model for variable lending rates found that the long-term passthrough of Indonesian banks was significant but could have been better on interest rates on working capital loans and investment loans. This study shows an asymmetrical behavior in banking interest rates in Indonesia. The passthrough degree is typically slow when there is a decrease in the benchmark interest rate.

Interelasi indeks pasar sektoral dalam kondisi tingkat bunga tertinggi

Interest rate policy is an important factor for controlling the inflation rate as well as controlling economic growth. The objectives of this study are: first, to examine the relationship between interest rates and market indexes; second, the interrelationship of market indexes during interest rate issues. The sample of this study is 12 market indexes during the observed period 24 October 2022 to 28 April 2023. This study finds that several market indices experienced an increase and several market indices also experienced a decrease when interest rates were at their highest levels. Other important findings also show that changes in interest rates tend not to have a significant impact on market indices, especially during the observation period of this study. Throughout the observation period, consistently, this study finds that the non-primary consumer goods sector consistently did not correlate with the health sector, the financial sector consistently did not correlate with the health sector, and the health sector consistently did not correlate with the technology sector.

Pengembalian saham sektor perbankan dalam isu inflasi dan suku bunga

Information on changes in inflation and interest rates is one of the issues that tend to influence investment decisions in the Indonesian capital market. This study observes from 1 February 2023 to 30 April 2023 at 47 firms in the banking sector. This study finds that the performance of stock returns on risk from the banking sector as a whole has not reached an optimal level. Specifically, the evidence also shows that there is a tendency for returns to decline from February to April 2023 as the inflation rate declines. The findings of this study also imply that a decrease in returns also occurs at a fixed interest rate. In addition, this study also finds that even though there is a decrease in returns but the difference of the value between periods are insignificant.

The asymmetry and uncertainty effects on the response of the yield curve to Brazilian monetary policy

We investigate the influence of the Central Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) decisions on the term structure of interest rate. We consider four possible drivers of market movements: (i) the effective surprise in the decision compared to market expectations; (ii) the asymmetric market responses to positive or negative changes in the monetary policy interest rate; (iii) the influence of economic uncertainty around meetings; and (iv) the effects of these changes on market behavior over time. We find that the monetary surprise coefficients have negative values for long-term rates. Moreover, we find an asymmetric response of the sign of the change in the monetary policy interest rate. There is evidence that, in general, positive changes in the interest rate are more difficult to predict by the market. Higher uncertainty increases the effect of the monetary policy surprise component in the short-term and reduces the effect in the long-term yield rates. Moreover, there is a reduction in the impact of the surprise component on the Brazilian interest rate market over time.

Portofolio investasi berbasis saham akselerasi

The issue of changes in inflation and interest rates from January to April 2023 is likely to have an impact on trading activity in the capital market. The purpose of this study is to analyze the risk-return performance, especially on accelerated trading boards related to changes in inflation and interest rates. This study finds that stock returns on accelerated trading boards throughout the observation period have not achieved optimal performance with low systematic risk. Individually, this study finds that IPAC and RUNS have optimal returns along with inflation and interest rate issues.

Optimal Reinsurance–Investment Strategy Based on Stochastic Volatility and the Stochastic Interest Rate Model

This paper studies insurance companies’ optimal reinsurance–investment strategy under the stochastic interest rate and stochastic volatility model, taking the HARA utility function as the optimal criterion. It uses arithmetic Brownian motion as a diffusion approximation of the insurer’s surplus process and the variance premium principle to calculate premiums. In this paper, we assume that insurance companies can invest in risk-free assets, risky assets, and zero-coupon bonds, where the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross model describes the dynamic change in stochastic interest rates and the Heston model describes the price process of risky assets. The analytic solution of the optimal reinsurance–investment strategy is deduced by employing related methods from the stochastic optimal control theory, the stochastic analysis theory, and the dynamic programming principle. Finally, the influence of model parameters on the optimal reinsurance–investment strategy is illustrated using numerical examples.

Effect of Human Capital Investment on Income Inequality in Kenya

Human capital investment has a crucial role in economic growth, and as such, it has been regarded as a significant aspect of government spending. The Gini index score reported an average of 41.6 percent in 2018, which is higher than the generally recognized perfect equality Gini index of 20%, suggesting that Kenya has been suffering from high income disparity. There has been a widespread belief that income inequality and human capital investment are mutually exclusive. The theoretical and empirical approaches in the literature provide mixed findings on the relationship. From 1990 to 2019, this study examined the effect of human capital investment on income inequality in Kenya while adjusting for interest rates and GDP per capita. The study adopted a causal research design to determine if a cause-and-effect association between the variables occurs. The time series data were subjected to diagnostic tests to ensure the presumptions of ordinary least squares held. Health expenditure was found to have a negative and statistically significant effect on income inequality after controlling for the interest rate and GDP per capita. After accounting for changes in interest rates and GDP per capita, the result shows that education investment has a negative and statistically insignificant effect on income inequality. The human development index was discovered to have a negative and statistically significant effect on disparity in income which was verified by the robust check. An inverted U was found using the Kuznets test, which was performed to broaden the scope of the research but yielded an insignificant result. The study recommends the formulation and implementation of policies that adhere to the Abuja Declaration on Health, which requires that 15% of government expenditure be allocated to health. The study recommends strict adherence to the 100% transition from primary to post-primary education. The study's conclusions are pertinent to the development and implementation of successful policies that encourage human capital investment, resulting in a decrease in Kenya's levels of income inequality.

Asymmetries, uncertainty and inflation: evidence from developed and emerging economies

This paper examines the asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and oil price uncertainty (OPU) on inflation by using a Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model, which is compared to a benchmark linear ARDL one. Using monthly data from the 1990s until August 2022 for a number of developed and emerging countries, we find that the estimated effects of both EPU and OPU shocks are larger when allowing for asymmetries in the context of the NARDL framework. Further, EPU shocks, especially negative ones, have a stronger impact on inflation than OPU ones and capture some of the monetary policy uncertainty, thereby reducing the direct effect of interest rate changes on inflation. Since EPU shocks reflect, at least to some extent, monetary policy uncertainty, greater transparency and more timely communications from monetary authorities to the public would be helpful to anchor inflation expectations.

Analyzing the Financial Risk Factors Impacting the Economic Benefits of the Consumer Electronic Goods Manufacturing Industry in India

Financial market instability and losses driven by changes in stock prices, currencies, interest rates, and other factors are the primary causes of economic risk. One of the risk types with the highest priority for every business is financial risk. The consumer electronics manufacturing sector’s focus on rising technology is driving important growth and includes manufacturers of smartwatches, stylish home products, and smart speakers. Risks can arise from the inability to meet functional requirements and business expectations throughout the life cycle, from original formation to final disposal, while supplying competitive electronic products. All of this highlights the necessity and potential of thorough study in the field of financial risk in economic growth. With the help of owners and managers of top electronic manufacturing industries in India, this study’s goal is to examine and evaluate several aspects of financial risk in economic benefits. The main factors of the financial risk covered under the study include liquidity risk, market risk, credit risk, and operational risk. Financial risks also arise from a combination of macroeconomic factors, including changing interest rates on the market and the potential for default by sizable businesses or industries. Financial stability is of the utmost importance to a commercial enterprise to maintain its position and status in the commercial environment. All of this demonstrates the value and need for rigorous research in the area of financial risk affecting the performance of the organization. This study intends to analyze several components of financial risk in consumer electronic goods manufacturers in India. Various aspects discussed in the study revolving around financial risk management are an important factor and demand the maximum attention of the organization.

Hubungan suku bunga, inflasi, dan return emiten industri otomotif di Indonesia

At the beginning of 2023, the condition of the capital market in Indonesia is still colored by the issue of the continuation of the COVID-19 pandemic and information on issues of the global crisis which tends to have an effect of investment uncertainty, especially in the automotive industry. This study uses time series data with an observation period of 1 January 2023 to 30 April 2023. This study finds that the average return on stocks in the automotive industry has a better risk-return tradeoff in April. In addition, it was also found that changes in interest rates from the Central Bank tend not to have an impact on the rate of return on stocks from the automotive industry. This study also finds that changes in the inflation rate tend to be followed by non-unidirectional changes in returns.