Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles Research Articles

United States nuclear weapons, 2024

ABSTRACT The United States has embarked on a wide-ranging nuclear modernization program that will ultimately see every nuclear delivery system replaced with newer versions over the coming decades. In this issue of the Nuclear Notebook, we estimate that the United States maintains a stockpile of approximately 3,708 warheads—an unchanged estimate from the previous year. Of these, only about 1,770 warheads are deployed, while approximately 1,938 are held in reserve. Additionally, approximately 1,336 retired warheads are awaiting dismantlement, giving a total inventory of approximately 5,044 nuclear warheads. Of the approximately 1,770 warheads that are deployed, 400 are on land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, roughly 970 are on submarine-launched ballistic missiles, 300 are at bomber bases in the United States, and approximately 100 tactical bombs are at European bases. The Nuclear Notebook is researched and written by the staff of the Federation of American Scientists’ Nuclear Information Project: director Hans M. Kristensen, senior research fellow Matt Korda, research associate Eliana Johns, and program associate Mackenzie Knight. To see all previous Nuclear Notebook columns in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists dating back to 1987, go to https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook/.

Feasibility of kinetic orbital bombardment

Abstract In this paper, the possible impact effects of orbital bombardment systems and their feasibility are studied. These effects are the projectile penetration into concrete and steel targets and seismic effects. The equations of motion for the re-entry of a projectile and the penetration were solved numerically. The projectile penetration is modelled using the Alekseevskii–Tate model. By varying the altitude (h), projectile length (L), manoeuvre velocity (ΔV) and the target properties, the flight time (t), earthquake magnitude (M) and penetration depth (P) are calculated. The calculations show that the impact of a tungsten alloy rod with a length of 8 m and a 0.4 m diameter results in an earthquake with a seismic magnitude of only 2.5 on the Richter scale. For concrete, the optimal result is obtained for a projectile with a length of 0.56 m. It penetrates 1.79 m with a minimal ΔV trajectory. These results show that a kinetic orbital bombardment system is not feasible without major technological developments, the impact angle being a bottleneck of the concept. Moreover, one has to accept very high costs. Without any means to change the attitude of the projectile, using ICBMs or bombers shows a better penetration performance than re-entry. Highlights Weapons in orbit may provide a strategic advantage. However, they are restricted by international space laws. Impact angle of the projectile is a bottleneck for kinetic orbital bombardment. Larger impact angles can be achieved, but at the expense of a larger mass-to-orbit. A hypersonic drag device may be used to optimise the impact angle and thus improve the system. Alternative projectile delivery methods (Bomber, Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM)) show better performance for both steel and concrete targets. Essentially, only penetration phenomena matter because the seismic effects are not significant. Therefore, orbital bombardment systems don’t even resemble weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Given their limited effect, destroying a particular target requires a guidance and flight control system, which, given the high velocities, may not be feasible.

The war in Ukraine: the failure of deterrence

With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it became evident that the longstanding American deterrence policy that had worked during the Cold War failed. In February 2022, Russia started a war of conquest against its neighbor, and the United States and its European allies were unable to prevent it. America’s deterrence broke down for two main reasons. First, successive American Presidents failed to act when Russia used its brute military force against its neighbors. In 2008, Russia attacked Georgia and captured two provinces, proclaiming them “independent states.” In 2014, Russia attacked Ukraine, annexed Crimea, and established military control over two other provinces in Donbas, and announced their “independence.” In both cases, the United States and its European allies imposed mild trade sanctions on Moscow, most of which they soon repealed. The most remarkable act in this regard was sponsored by the Obama administration, which in 2011-2012 pushed hard for Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization by bullying Georgia not to veto Moscow’s application. The second, more significant cause for the failure of deterrence was America’s refusal to invest in a new generation of strategic weapons. Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has developed very little in terms of upgrading its nuclear arsenal and creating new delivery systems. At the same time, Moscow invested hundreds of billions of dollars in developing and deploying new long-range cruise missiles, new hypersonic missiles, and a new generation of intercontinental ballistic missiles.

Silver Lining Study: Missileer Fatigue Mitigation During 2020 Coronavirus Pandemic.

The U.S. Air Force's Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) force stands ready to launch weapons 365 days per year. Since its inception, missileers vigilantly operate launch consoles on a 3-day cycle: minimum 24-hour alert-shift/24-hour travel-admin/24-hour off, leading to concerns that health, morale, and alertness are chronically impacted. In 2020, a Missileer Occupational Health Assessment (OHA) revealed 76% of respondents struggle with being rested for duty and 29% of respondents never feel adequately rested for duty. Later that year, 20th Air Force initiated long-duration operations to safeguard from the SARS CoV-2 (COVID-19) Pandemic, resulting in increased operations tempo, and exacerbating crew fatigue.341st Operations Group and 341st Medical Group at Malmstrom Air Force Base enacted interventions to mitigate crew fatigue and support continued readiness during pandemic operations. They recorded, analyzed, and compiled findings in this report, including recommendations for long-term ICBM operations at Missile Wings. All participants were Nuclear and Missile Operations Officers, or missileers, were continuously evaluated with qualitative and quantitative measures to ensure safety of the force during a period of unprecedented change. Interventions implemented and evaluated during the 9-month period included: environmental modifications, scheduling changes, and crew education on fatigue management, nutrition, anticipatory sleep preparation, and fitness. Most notably, the 341st Operations Group examined various 3-person and 4-person shift-length and alert duration schedules. Psychomotor vigilance testing results validated safety of operators and delta between pre- and post-shift measurements. Crew force readiness trends were analyzed for force-health awareness. Pre- and post-OHA results were compared for subjective changes. Fatigue and health-related outcomes were collected from a safety monitoring effort during standard and COVID-19 operations at 341st Missile Wing. Findings from qualitative and quantitative data indicate the optimal schedule is a 3-week cycle:7-day alert/7-day recovery/7-day training-administrative utilizing 4-member or 3-member crews for low tempo operations. Crews experimented with shift-lengths of 24hrs-on/24hrs-off, 16hrs-on/8hrs-off, and 12hrs-on/12hrs-off. Maximum safe alert duration is 7 days due to task fatigue onset between 8 and 10 days. Short and long duration Duties Not to Include Flight (DNIF) (also known as Duties Not to Include Alert (DNIA) among missileers) rates decreased from the first to last month of the period by 74.6% and 79.2%, respectively. The number of alerts missed per month decreased 86% from baseline. The 2021 OHA found a 7% decline in members seeking separation, and absence of sleep, fatigue, and physical or mental health as missileer concerns. This analysis has identified a sustainable alert rotation of 7/7/7 with emphasis on protected recovery and training time and has been continued after concluding pandemic operations, creating consistent schedule stability where there once was none. If executed properly, this alert rotation, regardless of shift-length selected, has potential to improve trust between crews and leadership, provides adequate recovery time between alerts to maintain health, and improves wellness, family stability, morale, unit cohesion, and crew force retention. Notably, all Air Force Global Strike Missile Operations Groups adjusted scheduling practices to align with these findings.

Експертна оцінка критеріїв вибору методів знешкодження зарядів виведених з експлуатації твердопаливних ракет

The subject of study in this article is the processes that occur during the disposal of solid fuel rockets, methods of disposal, and criteria for choosing an effective method of disposal. This study identified the most significant criteria that determine the choice of an effective method for the disposal of decommissioned solid-fuel rocket charges. The task: to consider the risks of the man-made impact of the process of disposal of solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles on the environment, associated with the emission of harmful substances into the atmosphere, the scattering of fragments, the occurrence of shock air, and seismic and soliton waves; analyze the advantages and disadvantages of existing methods of destruction and use of solid propellant charges of rocket engines; expertly evaluate the criteria for the selection of disposal methods; and a priori ranking of criteria. The method of a priori ranking was chosen as the method of solving the given problem. The following results were obtained. The degree of consistency of the experts’ conclusions was assessed using the concordance coefficient. The hypothesis regarding the significance of the concordance coefficient was tested on the basis of a comparison of the calculated value of the concordance coefficient with the tabulated value at the given values of the significance level and the number of degrees of freedom. The most significant factors that should be taken into account when choosing a disposal method are identified (economic efficiency; the possibility of reusing the fuel that is removed; manufacturability; the probability of emergency situations during the implementation of the method; environmental safety; energy intensity), and factors that can be excluded from further analysis (the need for additional special systems, the degree of mastery of the method). Conclusions. The scientific novelty of the obtained results is as follows: the formalization and mathematical processing of a priori data on the subject of research was conducted, and a comparative assessment of the degree of influence of various criteria on known and promising methods of disposal of solid rocket fuel charges is given. According to the preliminary evaluation, the set of significant selection criteria is most fully met by the cryogenic washing method, the application of which allows the use of solid fuel and crushed substances extracted from solid fuel charges to improve the characteristics of modern detonation engines, to improve the characteristics of the technological processes of applying special refractory coatings, and to organize highly efficient combustion processes in the detonation mode of fuel with the production of thermal and electrical energy.

OPTIMALISASI PEMBERDAYAAN POTENSI SUMBER DAYA NASIONAL DI KALIMANTAN TIMUR GUNA MENGHADAPI ANCAMAN MILITER DI ALKI II

In era of the industrial revolution 4.0 which is marked by a world that is increasingly borderless and full of uncertainty, these challenges are becoming increasingly complex. potential threats in the Indonesian Archipelagic Sea Lanes (ALKI II), particularly in the East Kalimantan region. Developments in the global, regional and national strategic environment have had a significant impact on the conditions and situation at ALKI II. One of the national strategic developments is the establishment of East Kalimantan as the new National Capital (IKN), which makes ALKI II an area vulnerable to military threats. Optimizing the empowerment of the potential of national resources in this region is very important in maintaining stability, sovereignty and state security in the maritime area, especially in ALKI II. To achieve this, steps are needed to be implemented by the central and regional governments to deal with maritime challenges more effectively and ensure the integrity and security of the maritime area. Changes in Indonesia's Center of Gravity (CoG), which was previously based in Jakarta, moved to the East Kalimantan region. In addition, the IKN location is at the ALKI II crossing which is an international waterway passed by military and civilian ships, and is close to the Flight Information Region (FIR) of a neighboring country and within the cruising radius of a neighboring country. Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) from China on the northern side of Indonesia. Therefore, it is necessary to implement a solid defense architecture in the East Kalimantan IKN and optimize the empowerment of the potential of National Resources in order to deal with military threats and support national defense at sea.

Revisiting Presidential Nuclear Autonomy

The United States (US) Nuclear Command and Control (NC2) system is no longer appropriate for the current global security environment. The NC2 system lacks adequate hard checks and balances on the president’s use of nuclear weapons. Designed for decisiveness, there is no systemic barrier preventing the president from authorizing and ordering the launch of a nuclear weapon, regardless of the reason. As such, this memo proposes that Congress impose limits on the president’s nuclear first-strike authority. Congressional approval should be required before the president can launch a nuclear strike. In addition, the Department of Defense should reduce its reliance on silo-based missile systems and increase its reliance on submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). The high vulnerability of silo-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) to enemy nuclear strikes creates a ‘use it or lose it’ scenario, where ICBMs must be launched before they are destroyed. This increases pressure on the president to launch these missiles before they are destroyed, increasing the chance of miscalculation or launch if there is a false alarm. SLBMs are not subject to the same vulnerabilities. As more survivable assets, SLBMs reduce pressure on the president to act hastily, eliminating the chance of a poorly informed nuclear launch.

The Greek Connection: The Life of Elias Demetracopoulos and the Untold Story of Watergate by James H. Barron, and: Ένα σκοτεινό δωμάτιο, 1967–1974: Ο Ιωαννίδης και η παγίδα της Κύπρου—Τα πετρέλαια στο Αιγαίο—Ο ρόλος των Αμερικανών [A dark room, 1967–1974: Ioannidis and the Cyprus trap—Aegean oil—The role of the Americans]. by Alexis Papahelas (Αλέξης Παπαχελάς)

Reviewed by: The Greek Connection: The Life of Elias Demetracopoulos and the Untold Story of Watergate by James H. Barron, and: Ένα σκοτεινό δωμάτιο, 1967–1974: Ο Ιωαννίδης και η παγίδα της Κύπρου—Τα πετρέλαια στο Αιγαίο—Ο ρόλος των Αμερικανών [A dark room, 1967–1974: Ioannidis and the Cyprus trap—Aegean oil—The role of the Americans]. by Alexis Papahelas (Αλέξης Παπαχελάς) Konstantina E. Botsiou (bio) James H. Barron, The Greek Connection: The Life of Elias Demetracopoulos and the Untold Story of Watergate. New York: Melville House. 2020. Pp. xiii + 482. 21 illustrations. Hardcover $31.67. Alexis Papahelas (Αλέξης Παπαχελάς), Ένα σκοτεινό δωμάτιο, 1967–1974: Ο Ιωαννίδης και η παγίδα της Κύπρου—Τα πετρέλαια στο Αιγαίο—Ο ρόλος των Αμερικανών[A dark room, 1967–1974: Ioannidis and the Cyprus trap—Aegean oil—The role of the Americans]. Athens: Metechmio, 2021. Pp. 630. Cloth €18.90. Due to a scarcity of archival sources and the aversion of historians, the foreign and defense policies of the seven-year Greek military dictatorship (1967–1974) have not been systematically researched. Although more widely explored than most of the dictatorship’s foreign connections, Greek-American relations during this period are no exception to the rule. Ideologically driven interpretations or “what ifs” hardly substitute for structured analyses of alliances, animosities, and political decisions. As a matter of fact, they strengthen the superficial perception of the junta as a tragic parenthesis in the history of postwar Greece. This tendency is changing, however, and two recent publications are especially noteworthy. James H. Barron and Alexis Papahelas both present detailed accounts of the dictators’ worldviews and actions. They also offer thorough overviews of the Greek political ecosystem in the 1950s and 1960s, where the future dictators thrived. Various continuities and discontinuities with the earlier period place the dictatorship in a historical context driven by anticommunism—and its local version, εθνικοφροσύνη (ethnikofrosyni)—which the colonels took up as their mission when Greek politicians loosened their grip in the era of international détente. Committed to the zeitgeist of bipolarity, the colonels baptized personal competitors as enemies of the state. Barron’s story of Elias Demetracopoulos’s multiple persecutions by Greek and American officials before and during the dictatorship captivates the reader. Demetracopoulos suffered the various types of character assassination that an [End Page 137] assertive journalist posing inconvenient questions would undergo. A prominent example of his research concerned the stationing of nuclear missiles on Greek soil as a result of the “Sputnik effect.” Demetracopoulos maintained many doubts about the Greek government’s denial of any participation in the US program of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), which had involved Italy and Turkey before the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962. He believed that Greek participation in the ICBM program would be vital for alleviating the West’s feeling of technological inferiority after the Soviet Union launched Sputnik 1, the world’s first artificial satellite, which suggested that the American soil became vulnerable to a potential Soviet attack (105–110). The refusal to accept the Greek government’s denials severely damaged Demetracopoulos’s relations with the Greek premier Konstantinos Karamanlis (1955–1963). Similar difficulties awaited Demetracopoulos in the US. His close ties with top American public figures were frequently undermined by unforgiving cold warriors who saw in Demetracopoulos a threat to the dominant narrative of law and order. These contradictions underscore the difference that personality can make in any given historical situation. Barron paints a comprehensive portrait of Demetracopoulos, a devoted journalist who earned exceptional resistance credentials as a teenager during the Axis occupation. He later spent his adult life in the twilight zone between censure and shelter by Greek and American agencies and individuals who ranged from committed friends and acquaintances to various top politicians such as Konstantinos Karamanlis, George Papandreou, and Ted Kennedy. In the 1950s, Demetracopoulos had built a reputation as a trustworthy liaison between the Greek media and the American community in Greece. Shortly after the establishment of the military dictatorship he sought refuge in the US via Denmark, acting out of a justified fear that assassination attempts would no longer be limited to his character. Barron’s book stresses for American audiences the Greek dimension of the Watergate scandal. Fate reserved for Demetracopoulos a crucial part in the history of both the junta and the Nixon administration, since it was he who came to reveal the Nixon administration’s “Greek connection.” According to his reports at the...

US news media’s framing of the ‘North Korean crisis’ under the Trump administration: The new ideological foreign affairs paradigm

On 11 February 2017, North Korea launched its first intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test of the Trump administration. Over the ensuing year the North Korean government continued to defy international pressures through the intensification of its ballistic missile and nuclear programs. During this time frame, an escalation of adversarial rhetoric between the Trump administration and the Kim Jong-un military government gained widespread media attention for its potential to escalate into military aggression. This study analyzes USA Today coverage of the ‘North Korean crisis’, and its subsequent de-escalation following the announcements of diplomatic talks in March 2018 in order to gain insight into the nature of mainstream US media framing of the issue. The study found that US news media appropriates ingroup/outgroup dichotomies in the service of US interests. Analysis also revealed that the coverage embraced an ideologically-based narrative predicated on the rejection of an international system based on the moral imperatives of democracy and human rights in favor of a realpolitik interpretation of the international system in which actors compete for advantage.

DPRK’S NUCLEAR CONUNDRUM AND THE U.S.-NORTH KOREA NEGOTIATIONS: A NEVER-ENDING SAGA

The challenge of nuclear proliferation in the Korean peninsula since 2006 with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea’s (DPRK) first nuclear test had not only drawn the global attention but created a perilous situation on the peninsula. Further the Hwasong-15 Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) of DPRK that was tested in February 2023 and thereafter has heightened tensions between Washington and Japan with Pyongyang. The United States’ (U.S.) diplomatic efforts to engage North Korea through bilateral means in recent times resulted in the first historic summit in Singapore (2018) and later in Vietnam (2019). Though these are undoubtedly positive developments, however, in the absence of any tangible deal after the Hanoi summit, the big question remains will the U.S. and North Korea end their mutual misperceptions, and work towards a viable solution. At the moment, the very fact that since 2019, the U.S. and North Korea have had no official dialogues is evident that misperceptions and distrust continues and finding any sort of solution is going to be a very difficult task now that North Korea has closed its borders since the COVID-19 pandemic started. The more isolated Pyongyang is, the more belligerent it will become in testing its missiles.

United States nuclear weapons, 2023

ABSTRACTThe Nuclear Notebook is researched and written by Hans M. Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project with the Federation of American Scientists, and Matt Korda, a senior research associate with the project. The Nuclear Notebook column has been published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists since 1987. This issue examines the status of the US nuclear arsenal. The US nuclear arsenal remained roughly unchanged in the last year, with the Department of Defense maintaining an estimated stockpile of approximately 3,708 warheads. Of these, only about 1,770 warheads are deployed, while approximately 1,938 are held in reserve. Additionally, approximately 1,536 retired warheads are awaiting dismantlement, giving a total inventory of approximately 5,244 nuclear warheads. Of the approximately 1,770 warheads that are deployed, 400 are on land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, roughly 970 are on submarine-launched ballistic missiles, 300 are at bomber bases in the United States, and 100 tactical bombs are at European bases.

North Korean Nuclear Crisis from Contending Theoretical Perspectives

This article investigates the North Korean nuclear crisis from various contending international relations theoretical perspectives analyzing North Korea's weapons of mass destruction (WMD), the possibility of regime survival, and various policies for coping with North Korea's nuclear threat. North Korea's nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) programs should guarantee Pyongyang's security enough, but Kim Jong‐un's intention in developing various strategic weapons, such as multiwarhead tactical nuclear missiles, nuclear‐warhead‐tipped ICBMs and submarine‐launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), nuclear‐powered submarines, and continuing enrichment of high enriched uranium and plutonium pose dire security threats to the USA and its alliances. As for countermeasures against North Korea's WMD, the US‐ROK should upgrade their missile defense system based on the 4D principle. The alliance should conduct regular military drills anticipating various possible North Korean preemptive tactical nuclear weapon and missile attacks. Also, the USA and South Korea should make continuing efforts to persuade Kim Jong‐un to give up his nuclear weapons and ICBM programs.

IMPORTANCE OF MAINTAINING AND STRENGTHENING NATO’S NUCLEAR DETERRENCE BASED ON THE RUSSIAN AGGRESSION AGAINST UKRAINE

The study focuses on NATO’s nuclear policy in the face of Russia’s aggressive policy and threats from the Kremlin.
 The author examines the history of the nuclear policy of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization since the founding of NATO, as well as key aspects of the implementation of NATO’s nuclear deterrence policy.
 Part of the study focuses on the geostrategic aspects of NATO’s nuclear triad and covers the three components of the nuclear triad: strategic bombers, intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). It also examines specific aspects of the use of nuclear systems by the three main nuclear powers of NATO, namely the USA, the UK, and France, and the main geopolitical rivals of the Alliance, specifically the Russian Federation, taking into account Russian aggression against Ukraine, and the People’s Republic of China.

PARAMETRIC SYNTHESIS OF AN ELECTRO-HYDRAULIC EXECUTIVE DEVICE OF A DIGITAL SYSTEM OF AUTOMATIC CONTROL OF A MOVING OBJECT

Most modern moving objects, including military moving objects, are equipped with guidance and stabilization systems with electro-hydraulic executive devices. Intercontinental ballistic missiles, space vehicles, aircraft, the main armament of tanks and ships have high-precision digital guidance and stabilization systems with electro-hydraulic actuators with potentiometric feedback, capable of ensuring high accuracy of stabilization of a moving object in a given direction. The work is devoted to the development of a methodology for selecting the value of the feedback channel amplification coefficient, which provides the maximum margin of stability and the maximum speed of the closed digital system of guidance and stabilization of a moving object. The proposed technique is based on the application of a discrete-continuous mathematical model of a closed digital system of guidance and stabilization of a moving object, which contains ordinary differential equations for describing the disturbed motion of the continuous part of the stabilized object, as well as difference equations for describing a discrete stabilizer. To construct the characteristic equation of a closed discrete system, the mathematical model is reduced to a system of difference equations using matrix series. At the same time, the number of considered members of the matrix series depends on the value of the quantization period of the digital stabilizer, therefore, in addition to determining the amplification coefficient of the feedback channel of the executive device, the proposed technique also includes the determination of the value of the quantization period of the digital stabilizer.

Engineering of the Highest Caliber: Kazimierz Siemienowicz and the Culmination of the Military Revolution

The interregnum between the death of Galileo and the publication of Newton’s Principia produced great advances in military science and technology. Particularly noteworthy are Kazimierz Siemienowicz’s contributions to artillery and to the field of rocketry. The dominating nature of these weapon systems remain as relevant today as it did in 1650 with the publication of his opus, The Great Art of Artillery. Rocket technology defines power relations, whether fired indiscriminately across a national border or positioned menacingly in a silo as an intercontinental ballistic missile. Siemienowicz’s designs, namely his multi-stage rockets with delta-wing stabilizers and ejection nozzles, became instruments of state power. The standardization of the caliber scale, the writing of the science of artillery, the optimization of gunpowder quality, and the pioneering work in rocketry, which became his legacy, qualify him as principal in the culmination of the military revolution.

The Benefit of the Wind: Testing the Rally Effect of North Korea Shocks during the Park Geun-hye Administration

The "rally-'round-the-flag effect" sparked by North Korea (the so-called 'Northern Wind') has been an important part of South Korean domestic politics. Despite the long history and controversy associated with politics of Northern Wind, the literature provides surprisingly little quantitative evidence on this phenomenon. In this study, we empirically investigate the relationship between North Korean-induced incidents and former President Park Geun-hye's weekly job approval ratings. Using vector autoregressions, we find that (1) President Park gained political benefits from North Korea, where negative events (e.g., armed attacks) generated a larger boost in approval than positive events (e.g., high-level talks); (2) rally effects varied across regions according to different perceptions of the North Korean regime: during security crisis, Park received the largest rallies in Gyeongnam province where the dominant image of North Korea was an 'enemy that threatens our safety'; and (3) a test of nuclear weapons or intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) did not affect approval ratings even though it captured widespread media attention.

United States nuclear weapons, 2022

ABSTRACT The Nuclear Notebook is researched and written by Hans M. Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project with the Federation of American Scientists, and Matt Korda, a senior research associate with the project. The Nuclear Notebook column has been published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists since 1987. This issue examines the status of the US nuclear arsenal. The US nuclear arsenal remained roughly unchanged in the last year, with the Defense Department maintaining an estimated stockpile of approximately 3,708 warheads. Of these, only about 1,744 warheads are deployed, while approximately 1,964 are held in reserve. Additionally, approximately 1,720 retired warheads are awaiting dismantlement, giving a total inventory of approximately 5,428 nuclear warheads. Of the approximately 1,744 warheads that are deployed, 400 are on land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, roughly 944 are on submarine-launched ballistic missiles, 300 are at bomber bases in the United States, and 100 tactical bombs are at European bases.

Intruder detection and interdiction modeling: A bilevel programming approach for ballistic missile defense asset location

A relevant, applied problem in the location analysis literature is the effective location and allocation of resources to detect and interdict intruders traversing a defended region. For selected applications, defender resources are designed to detect and/or interdict intruders on specific parts (or stages) of the respective paths. Within this context, this research is motivated by the problem of effectively defending a set of population centers against attack by a limited number of intercontinental ballistic missiles (i.e., intruders). Herein, the defensive actions entail the location of ballistic missile defense resources to detect and interdict missiles over a range of possible launch-to-target missile paths and their respective, spatio-temporally defined stages of flight. Assumed is an adversary capability to observe the defensive asset locations and respond with an intercontinental ballistic missile targeting strategy that maximizes the expected damage of an attack. The research presents a bilevel programming model for the corresponding Stackelberg game and, via transformations and reformulations, identifies a single-objective mixed-integer nonlinear program that can be addressed with any of several commercially available solvers. Upon proving the convexity of the resulting formulation to assure reported solutions are globally optimal, comparative testing identifies the commercial solver ANTIGONE as preferred for solving instances of the underlying problem. Empirical testing via a designed experiment examines which scenario features of the underlying problem are most significant for predicting the required computational effort to solve problem instances, yielding insight into the practical nature of this research to address instances of increasing size.

SALT 50 Years On: Strategic Theory and Arms Control

This article addresses the relationship between the practice of arms control in the 1970s and strategic theory. Although the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty is often described as an example of theory-directed arms control, this article shows that ballistic-missile defences were a poor investment because of the ease with which they could be overwhelmed by offensive systems, especially with multiple warheads. The Nixon administration constructed a rationale for anti-ballistic missiles based on the need to defend against a partial surprise attack directed against American intercontinental ballistic missiles. When the negotiations succeeded and the investment stopped, the rationale remained, leaving an exaggerated problem without an easy solution. Meanwhile, parallel efforts to impose limits on offensive systems had the effect of encouraging a weak strategic theory emphasising the importance of perceptions of numerical comparisons.

An Optimal Design Scheme of Missile Trajectory

The optimization of missile trajectory is an important part of missile design. Its difficulty lies in the complex force of the missile and the different laws of the trajectory parameters in each stage. The existing trajectory simulation models have problems such as complex models, low accuracy, simplifying the initial motion state of the missile, and failing to fully reflect the characteristics of the active and passive motions. In order to solve these problems, this paper extracts important model variables on the basis of analyzing the force of the missile at different stages, and establishes a ballistic model with time-varying parameters. At the same time, according to the engineering design method of the missile flight program, the change rule of the pitch angle of the active phase of the missile with time is drawn up. Finally, an intercontinental ballistic missile is used as the object to simulate and analyze the proposed model. The results show that the method proposed in this paper can design and optimize missile trajectory well.