The capacity of intercity roads and urban streets is an important basic input required for planning, analysis and operation of roadway systems. It is used when choosing rational options in organizing traffic and for solving other issues concerning intercity roads and urban streets development planning. There are many mathematical models for calculating lane capacity but they are not an actual assessment of transport facilities that can be used in relevant traffic calculations. Goal. It is required to develop a new effective method which is based on objective characteristics of the traffic flow with obvious assumptions and provides an opportunity for enough accurate and indisputable forecasting of capacity on the benchmark lane. Methodology. The goal can be achieved by abandoning attempts to obtain the exact point value in favor of an interval assessment of lane capacity. At the same time, the basis should be drivers’ decision-making regarding the car speed and the distance from the vehicle ahead in dense traffic flow. Then the distance from the vehicle ahead is random while the car speed can be viewed as an argument of distribution function moments of random distance. Results. The received interval assessment of the lane capacity has wide possibilities for tuning to real parameters of the traffic and can take into account peculiarities of an operation of each separate road lane and its role in the transport system. Originality. The new method of the interval assessment of road lane capacity which is based on random distances between vehicles in the traffic is developed. Practical value. The developed method creates opportunities for determining not only the interval, but also an accurate estimation of the lane capacity when specifying the parameters of the standard traffic.
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