Interannual Variability Of Precipitation Research Articles

Using the dynamics of productivity and precipitation-use efficiency to detect state transitions in Eurasian grasslands

In the face of accelerated global dryland expansion and grassland degradation, signaling grassland ecosystem state transitions is an ongoing challenge in ecology. However, there is still a lack of effective indicators and understanding of the mechanisms of grassland ecosystem state transitions at the continental scale. Here, we propose a framework that links ecosystem function-based indicators and critical slowing down (CSD) theory to reveal grassland state transitions. Across precipitation gradients, we quantified the statistical characteristics and spatial patterns in ANPP and PUE dynamics (variability, asymmetry, and sensitivity to precipitation and temperature) in Eurasian grasslands. We show that the CVANPP, CVPUE, AANPP, APUE, SPUE-P, and SANPP-P of temperate steppes were significantly higher than those of alpine steppes, while the SPUE-T and SANPP-T were the inverse. In temperate grasslands, AANPP, APUE, and SANPP-P indicated the transition of typical steppes, and CVANPP, APUE, and SPUE-T indicated the transition from meadow to typical steppes. In alpine grasslands, APUE indicated the transition between alpine deserts and alpine steppes, and AANPP and SANPP-P indicated the transition between alpine steppes and meadow steppes. The interannual variability of precipitation strongly affected xerophyte proportion and demographic processes, which control state transitions in low-resilience grasslands. Community structures and limiting factors (nutrient, light, and/or temperature) regulate state transitions in high-resilience grasslands. Our results demonstrate that function-based indicators are predictive of impending state transitions of temperate and alpine grasslands, highlighting the complementation of ANPP and PUE dynamics that have the potential for predicting grassland ecosystem regime shifts and their underlying mechanisms.

The role of external and local atmospheric moisture fluxes in the interannual variability of peak summer precipitation over the northern fringe of the East Asian summer monsoon

On the northern fringe of the East Asian summer monsoon (NFEASM), both external atmospheric moisture transport and local evaporation are important moisture sources of moisture that feed peak summer precipitation, but their relative importance in regulating the precipitation variability remains unclear. This study uses the atmospheric water budget analysis to investigate the contributions of external and local atmospheric moisture fluxes to the interannual variability of peak summer (July and August) precipitation over the NFEASM between 1980 and 2015. The results show that, compared with the net atmospheric moisture flux (i.e., moisture flux convergence, MFC), although climatologically evaporation is of the same magnitude as precipitation, its standard deviation is much smaller than that of precipitation and MFC. With respect to moisture conservation, the atmospheric moisture budget indicates that the interannual variability in summer precipitation is derived primarily from changes in MFC. Moreover, the closer correlation between MFC and precipitation than between MFC and evaporation also implies that the variability of summer precipitation over the NFEASM is controlled mainly by fluctuations in the external atmospheric moisture fluxes, particularly by the moisture transport from the southwest, which is closely linked to the anticyclonic anomalous circulation over eastern China. In addition, although the westerly does not bring substantial moisture, its meridional movement can change the upper-level zonal wind divergence pattern, thereby affecting peak summer precipitation over the NFEASM.

Observed Changes in Interannual Precipitation Variability in the United States

AbstractCharacterizing changes in precipitation patterns over time is critical for hydrologically dependent fields like water resource management and agriculture. Here, we explore observed trends in interannual precipitation variability using a suite of metrics that describe changes in precipitation over time. We analyze daily in situ Global Historical Climatology Network precipitation data from 1970 to present over 17 internally consistent sub‐national United States domains using a regional Mann‐Kendall trend test. We find robustly increasing trends in annual mean precipitation and wet day frequency for most of the central and eastern U.S., but decreasing trends in the western U.S. Importantly, we identify widespread significant trends in interannual precipitation variability, with increasing variability in the southeast, decreasing variability in the far west, and mixed signals in the Rocky Mountains and north‐central U.S. Our results provide important context for water resource managers and a new observational standard for climate model performance assessments.

Water and sediment pollution of intensively used surface waters during a drought period — a case study in Central Northern Namibia

Semiarid regions are often affected by water scarcity and poor water quality. Seasonal changes in precipitation and drought events increase the pressure of use on water bodies and their pollution. In Central Northern Namibia, a high seasonal intra- and inter-annual variability of precipitation caused a 5-year lasting drought period. In the semiarid region, ephemeral channels and water pans represent the main water source, besides the institutionalized water supply. No systematic analysis of its quality has been conducted so far. The states of the surface waters at the end of the dry season in 2017 and the end of the rainy seasons in 2018 and 2019 were characterized by the analysis of physical–chemical parameters, focusing on usability. The first results show coarse contamination of the waters, which results in high turbidity values. Salt concentrations, such as Ca2+ and Na+, greatly increased due to evaporation. Al is present in high concentrations in solid and liquid phases, which indicates direct anthropogenic pollution. Spatial differences are evident in the study area and based on the precipitation gradient, land use, and population density. The waters cannot be used as drinking water without prior treatment.

Moisture source anomalies connected to flood‐drought changes over the three‐rivers headwater region of Tibetan Plateau

AbstractThe Flood‐Drought condition over the Three‐River Headwater region (TRHR) of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) exerts vital impacts on regional climate and downstream livelihoods. However, the reasons behind precipitation variability over this region remain elusive. In this study, the multi‐year moisture sources of water vapour reaching the TRHR were identified to reveal their connection to the interannual variability of summer precipitation by utilizing a Lagrangian diagnosis analysis. The results show that the moisture sources could be tracked backward covering vast areas, with the peak values located mostly at the northern Indian continent and adjacent regions of TRH itself. The variability of integrated moisture sources' contribution agrees well with the summer precipitation on the interannual scale; However, the role of different regions varies in line with their geographical location. More specifically, summer precipitation is positively correlated with the moisture source over the adjacent areas of TRH and the remote terrestrial‐oceanic regions, in contrast to a negative correlation to the water vapour departing from the Northeastern Asian and western regions to the TP. The Indian summer monsoon circulation and local recycling process play a dominant role in modulating the summer precipitation on the interannual scale, whereas the role of the westerlies is almost negligible. The abnormal atmosphere circulations triggered by mid‐high latitude wave trains and anomalies in SST in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean could serve as possible drivers for the precipitation variability over TRHR.

Sea surface temperature anomalies in different ocean basins affecting the interannual variations of summer precipitation in low-latitude highlands of Southeast Asia

Sea surface temperature anomalies in different ocean basins affecting the interannual variations of summer precipitation in low-latitude highlands of Southeast Asia

Climate-driven changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation

Climate-driven changes in precipitation amounts and their seasonal variability are expected in many continental-scale regions during the remainder of the 21st century. However, much less is known about future changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation, an important earth system property relevant for climate adaptation. Here, on the basis of CMIP6 models that capture the present-day teleconnections between seasonal precipitation and previous-season sea surface temperature (SST), we show that climate change is expected to alter the SST-precipitation relationships and thus our ability to predict seasonal precipitation by 2100. Specifically, in the tropics, seasonal precipitation predictability from SSTs is projected to increase throughout the year, except the northern Amazonia during boreal winter. Concurrently, in the extra-tropics predictability is likely to increase in central Asia during boreal spring and winter. The altered predictability, together with enhanced interannual variability of seasonal precipitation, poses new opportunities and challenges for regional water management.

Estimating Seasonal and Interannual Variations in Precipitation in Rural Eastern Africa: A Case Study in Longido, Tanzania

Access to water is a limiting factor for development in many semi-arid regions, contributing to food insecurity and environmental stresses on the local population. Additionally, some rural areas still have limited quantitative data on weather and associated rainfall patterns. This study analyzes ground meteorological data from a station installed at Longido, Tanzania and performs time series decomposition modelling of complementary Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals (IMERG) data to quantify the amount, distribution, and variability of this essential resource. The seasonal rainfall pattern at Longido is bimodal with a large peak between March and May and a smaller peak between October and November. Interannual variability in rainfall is only weakly correlated with El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole indices; however, the highest observed rainfall does occur in a year with numerous simultaneous storms in the southern Indian Ocean. This analysis will help improve water management planning in the locality and points to a need to promote and support water storage as a method to meet the needs of the local population

Interannual variation of midsummer precipitation in the middle reaches of Yarlung Zangbo River and its possible mechanisms

AbstractHydroclimatic process in Yarlung Zangbo River (YZR) plays a critical role in the water cycle of the whole Tibetan Plateau (TP), but there is a lack of understanding about it due to restrictive conditions. In this study, we further investigate the interannual variation characteristics and possible factors of midsummer (July–August) precipitation in the middle reaches of YZR (MYZR) based on the monthly precipitation data from four stations (Lhasa, Xigaze, Tsedang and Gyangze) in the Inner TP and ERA5 reanalysis dataset for the years 1961–2017. The results suggest that precipitation shows no obvious linear trend during the research period but is dominated by interannual oscillation with evident cycles of 3 years. Meanwhile, the interannual variation of precipitation is related to local changes of water vapour budget. The anomalous anticyclones over the Indian Peninsula‐Southeast Asia continuously transport water vapour from the western Pacific, South China Sea and Bay of Bengal (BOB) to the TP. Simultaneously, both the monsoon low and South Asia high in southern TP provide dynamic conditions for the convergence and uplift of water vapour.

Atmospheric patterns and winter precipitation over north‐western South Asia

AbstractMid‐latitude storms act as crucial atmospheric bridges between global teleconnection patterns and regional precipitation distribution during boreal winter over South Asia. In this work, we study the spatio‐temporal variability of seasonal precipitation over South Asia over the last four decades, which reveals distinct regional precipitation patterns across seasons. For the winter region of South Asia (WRSA), the second Empirical orthogonal function (EOF2) of 500 hPa geopotential heights shows a significant positive correlation with precipitation. Furthermore, using regression analysis, we estimate that the first six EOFs explain most of the interannual variability in winter precipitation during the positive phase of AMO. The results show that six standard climate indices influence winter precipitation over WRSA. We observed a decadal variability in the relationship between ENSO and winter precipitation over WRSA that is modulated by Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The positive phase of AMO strengthens the positive relationship between ENSO and winter precipitation over WRSA. The model results also show that two other oscialltions, DMI and AAO, significantly explain the variability of winter precipitation over WRSA. The atmospheric patterns extracted in this study significantly improve winter precipitation forecasting skill of linear regression models compared to those based on standard climate indices, especially during positive AMO winters. The results from this study can be used to improve seasonal predictability of winter precipitation over WRSA.

Analysis of Himalayan summer monsoon rainfall characteristics using Indian High‐Resolution Regional Reanalysis

AbstractThis study assesses the high‐resolution Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis (IMDAA) dataset in representing the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) precipitation over the Himalayan region against ground‐based gridded (IMD), satellite‐based (TRMM, GPM‐IMERG and CHIRPS) and ERA5 reanalysis datasets at seasonal mean, trends, interannual and diurnal timescales. We first evaluate the relative performance of IMDAA rainfall using various statistical performance measures against the aforementioned datasets. Analysis suggests that IMDAA successfully captures the spatial distribution of ISM mean precipitation and seasonal cycle of daily rainfall over the Himalayas as in gridded, satellite and ERA5 reanalysis datasets, albeit with some overestimation in magnitude. Furthermore, statistical results show that IMDAA exhibits a wetter tendency, more RMSE, and higher precipitation variations over the foothills of the Himalayas. The results of the skill score determine that IMDAA diligently captured moderate and extreme precipitation events but was unable to detect heavy and low‐precipitation events. Our analysis further reveals that IMDAA shows a positive trend in mean ISM precipitation over the western Himalayan region, in line with CHIRPS, IMERG, IMD, ERA5 and TRMM datasets. Investigation of rainfall trends from station observations over the foothills of the Himalayas revealed mixed trends, with some stations (Tehri, Uttarkashi and Mukhim) showing an increasing trend and others (Dunta and Bhatwari) showing a decreasing trend. However, IMDAA reanalysis agrees well with all gauge station‐based trends. Additionally, the interannual variability of Himalayan precipitation is well represented in IMDAA as its principal component correlates well with its seasonal precipitation anomalies. It is found that the leading empirical orthogonal function mode of IMDAA accounts 24% of the total variance, demonstrating a single mode of variability. Furthermore, it is noticeable that strong convective activity during wet ISM years than in dry years, suggesting that the IMDAA can capture these variations successfully compared to ERA5. The interannual variability of ISM precipitation over the Himalayas is strongly associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, which is well represented by IMDAA. In addition, IMDAA successfully replicated the diurnal cycle of precipitation over the central Himalayas, showing the presence of bimodal precipitation maxima: one in the afternoon and another one in the early morning, which is consistent with satellite observations. Thus, our results suggest that the IMDAA is a valuable dataset to understand the spatial–temporal pattern of summer precipitation over such a complex high mountain Asian region.

Precipitation Characteristics across the Three River Headwaters Region of the Tibetan Plateau: A Comparison between Multiple Datasets

Precipitation is crucial for managing water resources in the Three River Headwaters (TRH) region of the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Gridded precipitation datasets across the TRH region exhibit significant discrepancies in their results. Previous studies have primarily focused on assessing average or extreme precipitation for a single dataset or several datasets. In this study, based on the observed gridded precipitation dataset (CN05.1), a comprehensive evaluation of the climatic features and extreme precipitation across the TRH region from 1983 to 2014 is performed by employing two gauge-based gridded datasets (GPCC and CRU), two satellite-derived precipitation datasets (P-CDR and IMERG), and two reanalysis precipitation datasets (ERA5 and CRA40). The results show that all datasets are consistent in reproducing the climatology, interannual variability, and annual cycle of precipitation in the TRH region. However, the different datasets exhibit significant discrepancies in characterizing the long-term trends and extreme precipitation events. P-CDR and GPCC provide a good representation of the spatial variability of the annual mean climatology. ERA5 and CRU are more reliable in capturing interannual variabilities. The long-term trends can be closely described by employing CRU. P-CDR and GPCC exhibit higher skills in terms of the annual cycle. P-CDR performs better than IMERG for daily precipitation in terms of probability distributions and other assessment metrics. P-CDR and IMERG have advantages and disadvantages in characterizing the nine extreme precipitation indices. This study demonstrates a comprehensive comparison method using multiple precipitation datasets to gain essential insight into the strengths and weaknesses of various datasets across the TRH region.

Arctic Seasonal Variability and Extremes, and the Role of Weather Systems in a Changing Climate

AbstractThe effects of global warming are strongly amplified in the Arctic, causing rapidly rising temperatures and ongoing dramatic loss of sea ice, which itself is subject to large interannual variability. We investigate changes in seasonal‐mean temperature and precipitation, its variability and extremes, using large‐ensemble climate model data with a representative concentration pathway 8.5 forcing scenario for historical (S2000) and end‐of‐century projections (S2100). Our results reveal regionally and seasonally dependent changes in Arctic interannual temperature and precipitation variability that are strongly linked to sea‐ice loss. We show a doubling in precipitation variability over the Arctic Ocean and a significant reduction in temperature variability in the Barents Sea. Extremely warm seasons in S2000 rank among the coldest seasons or become unrealistic in S2100. We further show the key role of large‐scale weather systems for shaping seasonal temperature and precipitation extremes in the Arctic which persists under climate warming.

Diagnosing Potential Impacts of Tibetan Plateau Spring Soil Moisture Anomalies on Summer Precipitation and Floods in the Yangtze River Basin

AbstractSoil moisture as a key variable of land processes greatly influences the weather and climate. This study investigates the observed linkage between Tibetan Plateau (TP) spring soil moisture and summer precipitation and floods in the Yangtze River basin during 1988–2008 using satellite and in‐situ observations. A significant (p = 1%) proportion of interannual variations of summer precipitation (about 25%) in the Yangtze River basin can be attributed to spring TP soil moisture anomalies which show a dipole pattern. When spring soil moisture anomalies are positive (negative) over eastern (western) TP, there is more summer precipitation and consequently river discharge in the Yangtze River basin, or vice versa. The possible mechanisms can be explained from the perspectives of surface energy balance and atmospheric thermodynamics. More (less) spring soil moisture over the eastern (western) plateau enhances summer diabatic heating, which may be related to soil moisture memory. The enhanced summer diabatic heating stimulates vigorous ascending motions over TP, which diverge in the upper troposphere (200 hPa) and descend over the western Pacific. This is conducive to the enhancement and mutual proximity of the South Asian High (SAH) and the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH). As a result, the warm and humid air flows from the Bay of Bengal and the western Pacific and the cold and dry air flows from the boreal continent converge in the Yangtze River basin, causing excessive summer precipitation. Therefore, TP spring soil moisture can be considered a seasonal predictor of summer precipitation and possible subsequent floods in the Yangtze River basin.

Synoptic Drivers of Atmospheric River Induced Precipitation Near Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica

AbstractAtmospheric rivers (ARs) that reach the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) transport anomalous moisture from lower latitudes and can impact the AIS via extreme precipitation and increased downward longwave radiation. ARs contribute significantly to the interannual variability of precipitation over the AIS and thus are likely to play a key role in understanding future changes in the surface mass balance of the AIS. Dronning Maud Land (DML) is one of four maxima in AR frequency over coastal East Antarctica, with AR precipitation explaining 77% of the interannual variability in precipitation for this region. We employ a 16‐node self‐organizing map (SOM) trained with MERRA‐2 sea‐level pressure anomalies to identify synoptic‐scale environments associated with landfalling ARs in and around DML. Node composites of atmospheric variables reveal common drivers of precipitation associated with ARs reaching DML including anomalous high‐low surface pressure couplets, anomalously high integrated water vapor, and coastal barrier jets. Using a quasi‐geostrophic framework, we find that upward vertical motion associated with the occlusion process of attendant cyclones dominates atmospheric lift in AR environments. We further identify mechanisms that explain the variability in AR precipitation intensity across nodes, such as the lift associated with the occlusion process of attendant cyclones and the spatial coincidence of ascent induced by the occlusion process and frontogenesis. The latter suggests that ARs making landfall during the mature phase of cyclogenesis result in higher precipitation intensity compared to landfalling ARs that occur during the occluded phase.

Interannual variability of extreme precipitation in late summer over west China during 1961–2021

The characteristics and related mechanisms of the interannual variability of late summer (August) extreme precipitation in West China (WC) were investigated from 1961 to 2021. Precipitation and extreme precipitation (defined as the 99th percentile) generally decreased in the southeast-northwest direction, with a maximum in the Sichuan Basin. The non-linear trends in extreme precipitation have increased since the 1980s. Therefore, we further found that the interannual increase in extreme precipitation in the WC was significantly related to the eastward-strengthened South Asian high, western-stretched Western Pacific Subtropical high, enhanced westerly jet, anomalous cyclone in Mongolia, and anomalous anticyclone in the western Pacific. The anti-cyclonic anomaly is a Gill-type response to increase the sea surface temperature in the western Pacific. A mid-high latitude barotropic Rossby-wave train can be induced and has essential effects on the above key circulation patterns, further cooperating with the strong updrafts rather than strengthening and maintaining extreme precipitation in the WC.

Characteristics of historical precipitation for winter wheat cropping in the semi-arid and semi-humid area.

Winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is one of major crops in the area along Huai river, China where it is a semi-arid and semi-humid region with sufficient precipitation for an entire season, but with uneven distribution within various growth stages. The instability of precipitation is an important factor in limiting wheat production potential under climate change. Therefore, it is essential to characterise the precipitation associated with different crop developmental stages. Based on climate data from 1999 to 2020 in six representative meteorological stations, we characterised the historical precipitation relating to seven key growth stages in winter wheat. There is no clear trend of interannual variation of precipitation for wheat season, with an average of precipitation of 414.4 ± 121.2mm. In terms of the distribution of precipitation grade within a season, light rain was dominant. Continuous rain occurred frequently during the pre-winter seedling and overwintering stages. The critical period of water demand, such as jointing and booting, has less precipitation. The fluctuation range of precipitation in sowing, heading-filling and maturation stages is large, which means that there is flood and drought at times. In conclusion, these findings provide a foundation for instructing winter wheat cropping in confronting with waterlogging and drought risk due to uneven precipitation in 'Yanhuai' region, China.

Increasing interannual climate variability during crop flowering in Europe

Climate change has increasingly adverse effects on global crop yields through the occurrence of heat waves, water stress, and other weather-related extremes. Besides losses of average yields, a decrease in yield stability—i.e. an increase in variability of yields from year to year—poses economic risks and threatens food security. Here we investigate a number of climate indices related to adverse weather events during the flowering of wheat, maize and rapeseed, in the current cultivation areas as well as the main European producer countries. In 52 projections from regional climate models, we identify robust increases in the interannual variability of temperature, precipitation and soil moisture by ∼+20% in standard deviation in the model median. We find that winter wheat is most exposed to variability increases, whereas rapeseed flowering escapes the largest increases due to the early flowering time and the northern locations of cultivation areas, while the opposite (escape due to southern locations and late flowering) is true for maize to some extent. Considering the timing of crop development stages, we also find a robust increase in the variability of the temporal occurrence of flowering, which suggests a decreased reliability in the timing of crop stages, hampering management steps like fertilization, irrigation or harvesting. Our study raises concerns for European crop yield stability in a warmer climate and highlights the need for risk diversification strategies in agricultural adaptation.

South drying and north wetting over the Tibetan Plateau modulated by a zonal temperature dipole across timescales

Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding highlands is a crucial process in the hydrological cycle and is very important for local and downstream ecology, and previous research mainly focused on a certain range of timescales. A better understanding of the variability across various timescales, which has been largely ignored, can provide new insight on the regional weather and climate. Here, a north‒south dipole pattern of precipitation shaped by a zonal dipole of the upper-tropospheric temperature is revealed in this region. Both dipole patterns of the precipitation and the accompanied temperature exist from daily to interdecadal scales. The three-dimensional circulation anomalies connecting the temperature and precipitation dipoles are consistent across various timescales. The frequencies of daily events with opposite phases of the temperature dipole modulate the interannual and interdecadal variability in precipitation. The south drying and north wetting pattern over the Tibetan Plateau is an interdecadal manifestation of the precipitation dipole and can be ascribed to the temperature trend favourable for the positive phase of the zonal temperature dipole. The consistent dipole pattern constructs a more complete portrayal of precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau from synoptic scale to climatology.

Current status and progress in the seasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoon

The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) has a considerable impact on human lives in the most populated region in the world. Thus, its seasonal prediction is a high-profile application in Earth Science. However, the prediction skill of the regional ASM variability has long been limited due to a formidable difficulty in accurately simulating the complex interactions of the atmosphere-ocean variability and its remote influence on regional climate in numerical models. This study updates the current status and assesses progress in the ASM seasonal prediction performance. This study evaluated the seasonal prediction skill of two generations of models in hindcast data archived by the WCRP Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP) and Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). A special focus was put on the representation of the predominant teleconnections associated with the ENSO and Indian Ocean variability. It was found that the latest seasonal prediction systems (C3S) generally outperform previous-generation systems (CHFP) in terms of the reproducibility of the observed precipitation climatology and the prediction skill of the interannual variability of seasonal precipitation over the ASM region. Furthermore, the results suggested that the improvement of the prediction skill of the ASM likely stems from the improved representation of the monsoon climatology and teleconnections in the models. These analyses highlight the steady progress of the atmosphere-ocean coupled modelling and promise future improvements in the seasonal ASM prediction.