Interannual Sea Surface Temperature Research Articles

Indian Ocean Basin Warming in 2020 Forced by Thermocline Anomalies of the 2019 Indian Ocean Dipole

Abstract The Indian Ocean basin (IOB) mode is the dominant mode of the interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the Indian Ocean, with the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) as the second mode. An IOB event normally occurs after an El Niño or a concurrent IOD–El Niño event, the dynamics of which are traditionally believed as forced by ENSO through the Walker circulation anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean. A strong IOB in 2020 took place after the strongest 2019 IOD on record but independent of El Niño, which challenges the traditional atmospheric bridge dynamics of the IOB event. In this study, the dynamics of the 2020 IOB event are investigated using the numerical seasonal climate prediction system of the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center of China. It is found that the initialization of the Indian Ocean subsurface temperature during the 2019 IOD event has led to the outburst of the 2020 IOB event successfully, the dynamics of which are the propagation and the western boundary reflection of the equatorial and off-equatorial Rossby waves, inducing heat content recharge over the tropical Indian Ocean upper thermocline. In comparison, experiments of SST initialization over the tropical Indian Ocean, with the subsurface temperature in a climatological state, were unable to reproduce the onset of the 2020 IOB event, suggesting that the local air–sea interaction within the Indian Ocean basin is of secondary importance. The numerical experiments suggest that the thermocline ocean wave dynamics play an important role in forcing the IOB event. The revealed thermocline dynamics are potentially useful in climate prediction associated with IOB events.

Karadeniz'de 2000-2022 Yılları Arasında Yüzey Sıcaklığının Mekansal ve Zamansal Değişimi

This study presents a comprehensive assessment of the spatio-temporal variability of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Black Sea at monthly to interannual scales, with a focus on understanding its connection to major large-scale atmospheric forcing during the period 2000-2022. Monthly variations of SST in the Black Sea reveal distinct seasonal patterns. The study evaluates the potential impacts of large-scale atmospheric patterns on interannual SST variations using climate indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic/West Russia (EA-WR) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during the winter months. The results indicated that these large-scale atmospheric oscillations played a substantial role in influencing SST anomalies, with the NAO and EA-WR indices particularly affecting the Black Sea's SST anomalies. The NAO index exhibited negative values during warm winters and positive values during cold winters, with extreme cold and warm winters corresponding to specific years, as observed in 2003, 2006, 2012, 2017 (cold) and 2018, 2020, 2021 (warm). Notably, the relationship between NAO and SST anomalies was not as dominant during 2000-2022. This difference might be explained by the combined influence of NAO and ENSO, which is beyond the scope of this study. The EA-WR pattern was identified as another significant large-scale atmospheric dynamic affecting the Black Sea's SST. Although it explains the cold SST anomalies in certain years, it cannot account for extreme warm SST years. While the influence of ENSO remains somewhat inconclusive for the extreme warm period, the SST pattern between 2016-2022 aligns closely with El Niño events, particularly in 2018 and 2021 when positive SOI index values coincide with warm SST years in the Black Sea.

Future weakening of southeastern tropical Atlantic Ocean interannual sea surface temperature variability in a global climate model

AbstractFuture changes in the southeastern tropical Atlantic interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are investigated utilizing the global climate model FOCI. In that model, the Coastal Angola Benguela Area (CABA) is among the regions of the tropical Atlantic that exhibits the largest surface warming. Under the worst-case scenario of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5), the SST variability in the CABA decreases by about 19% in 2070–2099 relative to 1981–2010 during the model’s peak interannual variability season May–June–July (MJJ). The weakening of the MJJ interannual temperature variability spans the upper 40 m of the ocean along the Angolan and Namibian coasts. The reduction in variability appears to be related to a diminished surface-layer temperature response to thermocline-depth variations, i.e., a weaker thermocline feedback, which is linked to changes in the mean vertical temperature gradient. Despite improvements made by embedding a high-resolution nest in the ocean a significant SST bias remains, which might have implications for the results.

Chasing Interannual Marine Paleovariability

AbstractSeveral modes of tropical sea‐surface temperature (SST) variability operate on year‐to‐year (interannual) timescales and profoundly shape seasonal precipitation patterns across adjacent landmasses. Substantial uncertainty remains in addressing how SST variability will become altered under sustained greenhouse warming. Paleoceanographic estimates of changes in variability under past climatic states have emerged as a powerful method to clarify the sensitivity of interannual variability to climate forcing. Several approaches have been developed to investigate interannual SST variability within and beyond the observational period, primarily using marine calcifiers that afford subannual‐resolution sampling plans. Amongst these approaches, geochemical variations in coral skeletons are particularly attractive for their near‐monthly, continuous sampling resolution, and capacity to focus on SST anomalies after removing an annual cycle calculated over many years (represented as geochemical oscillations). Here we briefly review the paleoceanographic pursuit of interannual variability. We additionally highlight recent research documented by Ong et al., (2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022PA004483) who demonstrate the utility of Sr/Ca variations in capturing SST variability using a difficult‐to‐sample meandroid coral species, Colpophyllia natans, which is widespread across the Caribbean region and can be used to generate records spanning multiple centuries.

Characterizing Atlantic interhemispheric teleconnection established by South American monsoon in austral summer

This study aims to characterize the interhemispheric teleconnection pattern, which is established by the South America (SA) summer monsoon over the Atlantic Ocean during January and February, and referred it as the Atlantic symmetric pattern (ASP). The ASP is characterized using the leading mode of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability of the Southwest Atlantic Ocean, where strong convection-SST coupling occurs. The pattern is manifested as two anomalous cyclonic-anticyclonic-cyclonic circulation trains aligned meridionally over the Atlantic Ocean, with a distinct SST dipole of the Southwest Atlantic Ocean and a tripole of the North Atlantic Ocean. The interhemispheric wave trains of the ASP are excited as a Gill-type response to convective activity in the SA summer monsoon, as confirmed in linear baroclinic model. Complementing previous studies on observed interhemispheric connection in the Atlantic, our findings highlight the importance of characterizing the ASP and its role in linking the South Atlantic SST, the SA summer monsoon, and North Atlantic climate. Further research is warranted to explore the impacts of the ASP on the Northern Hemisphere and its interactions with other climatic modes.

Tropical coral reefs in Sri Lanka are threatened due to the fluctuation of seasonal and interannual sea surface temperature.

The thermal stress of oceans causes coral bleaching, which induces loss of life in coral reefs and makes them exposed to other threats which directly and indirectly affect millions of other species that inhabit the reef. However, studies focusing on how those thermal stresses affect Sri Lankan fringing reef ecosystems are scarce. Hence, the patterns of long-term and short-term fluctuations of sea surface temperature (SST) over the shallow reefs around the country were studied by separating them into different zones as the eastern coast (Passikudha, Kayankerni, Adukkuparu, Parrot Rock, and Pigeon Island), the southern coast (Beruwala Barbarian, Hikkaduwa, Unawatuna, Ahangama, Mirissa, Madiha, Polhena, and Devundara), and northern-northwestern coasts (Valiththoondal, Palk Bay, Mannar, Kalpitiya, Thalwila, and Uswatakeiyawa). The 1km Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR) Level 4 SST dataset was used to analyze seasonal and interannual SST variability from 2005 to 2021. The data were correlated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Ekman velocity, and wind stress curl. The annual, seasonal, and monthly variability of SST on different coasts is significantly different. Higher increasing trends of SST from 0.0324 to 0.0411 ℃/year are observed on different coasts, and most of the time higher positive anomalies are recorded after 2014. The First Inter Monsoon (IM-1) and the month of April are more critical since they reach the maximum SST, and the minimum is in the North West Monsoon (NWM) and January. Significant positive relationships are recorded between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index and the monthly average SST on different coasts, which was robust on the southern coast. Therefore, tropical coral reefs in Sri Lanka are severely threatened due elevation of SST by global warming and climate variability.

The Weakened Upwelling at the Upstream Kuroshio in the East China Sea Induced Extensive Sea Surface Warming

AbstractThe interannual sea surface temperature trend of the Kuroshio in the East China Sea (ECS‐Kuroshio) is significantly different from that of the ECS‐shelf region. Based on 33 years (1982–2014) of observational temperature data in the ECS, the upstream ECS‐Kuroshio, as an upwelling region, shows an opposite temperature trend to the downstream ECS‐Kuroshio, creating a horizontal “dipole” structure. Vertical heat transport modulated by upwelling variability in the upstream ECS‐Kuroshio can be the main factor for the distinct temperature trend in the upstream ECS‐Kuroshio. This upstream trend can expand to downstream areas through horizontal advections. As a result, the weakened upwelling triggered a significant warming trend in the entire upper layer of the ECS‐Kuroshio during the warming period (1999–2014). The weakening trend of upwelling and global rewarming conditions may lead to robust warming in the Kuroshio region in the middle of this century.

Intensification of Interannual Cross-Basin SST Interaction between the North Atlantic Tripole and Pacific Meridional Mode since the 1990s

Abstract The cross-basin interaction of the second EOFs of the interannual SST in the North Atlantic and North Pacific—the North Atlantic tripole (NAT) SST and Pacific meridional mode (PMM)—is discussed. Observations revealed that the total variances of the NAT and PMM have simultaneously experienced interdecadal enhancement since the 1990s. Wavelet analysis indicated that this enhancement was associated with the interdecadal variations (8–16 years) of the NAT and PMM, which have become significantly and positively coherent since the 1990s. This interdecadal variation also changed the interannual NAT–PMM relationship from negative to positive. The regression analysis indicated that the NAT forced a Matsuno–Gill circulation anomaly, which had a substantial lag impact on the PMM SST through wind–evaporation–SST feedback. Additionally, the NAT induced oceanic temperature advection, which also partially contributed to the PMM SST. On the other hand, the PMM-associated middle–upper atmospheric teleconnection, a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like circulation anomaly in the North Atlantic, gave positive feedback to the NAT. The numerical experiments suggest that the enhancement of the NAT–PMM interaction since the 1990s was associated with the eastward shift of PMM-associated convection, which was further enhanced by eastward extension of the upper-level extratropical jet in the North Pacific. Significance Statement This study aimed at a better understanding of the cross-basin interaction between the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Our study indicates that the cross-basin interaction in the interannual sea surface temperature between the Pacific meridional mode (PMM) and North Atlantic tripole (NAT) became stronger since the 1990s. The observation yields that this enhancement was associated with the interdecadal variations of the NAT and PMM, which have become significantly and positively coherent since the 1990s. The observation yields that the NAT-forced atmospheric large-scale circulation anomaly had a substantial lag impact on the PMM. On the other hand, the PMM-induced middle–upper atmospheric teleconnection, a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like circulation anomaly, gave positive feedback to the NAT. The numerical experiments suggest that the enhancement of the NAT–PMM interaction since the 1990s primarily resulted from the eastward shift of PMM-associated convection.

Predictability of sea surface temperature anomalies at the eastern pole of the Indian Ocean Dipole—using a convolutional neural network model

In this study, we train a convolutional neural network (CNN) model using a selection of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 and 6 models to investigate the predictability of the sea surface temperature (SST) variability off the Sumatra-Java coast in the tropical southeast Indian Ocean, the eastern pole of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Results show that the CNN model can beat the persistence of the interannual SST variability, such that the eastern IOD (EIOD) SST variability can be forecast up to 6 months in advance. Visualizing the CNN model using a gradient weighted class activation map shows that the strong positive IOD events (cold EIOD SST anomalies) can stem from different processes: internal Indian Ocean dynamics were associated with the 1994 positive IOD, teleconnection from the equatorial Pacific was important in 1997, and cooling off the Australian coast in the southeast Indian Ocean contributed to the 2019 positive IOD. The CNN model overcomes the winter prediction barrier of the IOD, to a large extent due to the frequent transition from a warm state of the Indian Ocean to a negative IOD condition (warm EIOD SST anomalies) over the boreal winter to the following spring period. The forecasting skills of the CNN model are on par with predictions from a coupled seasonal forecasting model (ACCESS-S2), even outperforming this dynamic model in seasons leading to the IOD peaks. The ability of the CNN model to identify key dynamic drivers of the EIOD SST variability suggests that the CMIP models can capture the internal Indian Ocean variability and its teleconnection with the Pacific climate variability.

Interdecadal changes in SST variability drivers in the Senegalese-upwelling: the impact of ENSO

Sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Eastern Tropical Atlantic has its center of action in the Senegalese–Mauritanian upwelling system, where its drivers are wind-induced ocean dynamics and air–sea thermodynamic processes. Thus, a better understanding of the local wind variations, together with their predictability, contributes to a more comprehensive assessment of the SST variability in that region. In this study, we use monthly data from two ocean reanalyses, SODA and ORAS-5, and a regional forced-ocean simulation to characterize the interannual SST variability off the Senegalese Coast in the common period 1960–2008. Local indices of the mixed layer heat budget during the major upwelling season (February–March–April) exhibit pronounced interannual to decadal variability. We demonstrate that the local interannual SST variability undergoes inter-decadal fluctuation and concomitant changes in its local and remote drivers. Off-Senegal SST variability was largely controlled by wind-induced Ekman transport during the 1960s–1970s, acting under favorable thermocline and mixed layer conditions. However, from 1980s onwards, the drastically reduced Ekman impact observed on local SSTs is associated with a deeper thermocline. This shift in the effectiveness of the dynamic mechanisms coincides with a more active ENSO teleconnection with upwelling before the 1980s. An extended SODA record reveals that the multidecadal modulator of the ENSO impact on the North-eastern Tropical Atlantic resembles the negative phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Our results bring to light the fundamental role played by the global decadal background state in the activation of the drivers and air-sea mechanisms responsible for generating the interannual off-Senegal SST variability.

The Influence of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves on Atlantic Niños

AbstractAtlantic Niños dominate the equatorial Atlantic variability during boreal summer (June–August). The coupled ocean‐atmosphere processes associated with Atlantic Niños have been extensively documented. However, the role of atmospheric convectively coupled Kelvin waves (CCKWs), which are uncorrelated to those previously identified processes, in triggering Atlantic Niños has been unclear. Here we identify CCKWs using Wheeler‐Kiladis filtering based on 10°S–10°N averaged daily outgoing longwave radiation. CCKWs propagate eastward from South America and induce surface zonal wind anomalies over the equatorial Atlantic Ocean. Strong anomalous CCKWs during spring (March–May) and their associated surface westerly wind anomalies can trigger downwelling oceanic Kelvin waves that change the east–west slope of the thermocline, consequently leading to Atlantic Niño. A causal effect network reveals that interannual sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Atlantic Niño Index area and CCKWs, both in spring, are uncorrelated, but both appear to influence SST anomalies over the Atlantic Niño Index area in summer. The CCKWs are also uncorrelated to other coupled ocean‐atmosphere sources, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Meridional Mode. Among a total of 15 Atlantic Niño/Niña events identified for the period of 1980–2017, two‐thirds of the events are linked to CCKWs. In particular, three Atlantic Niña events (1982, 1994, and 2005) are mainly triggered by CCKWs, under unfavorable SST preconditions. Thus, CCKWs in spring, due to atmospheric internal variability, provide another mechanism for triggering Atlantic Niños and probably weaken their predictability.

Influence of environmental variability on the distribution and abundance of the pantropical spotted dolphin (Stenella attenuata) in the Mexican Central Pacific

The Mexican Central Pacific (MCP) has complex oceanographic dynamics, with a well-defined seasonal pattern and influence of interannual sea surface temperature anomalies. The present study investigated the relationship between the distribution/abundance of spotted dolphins and the environmental conditions in the MCP. Dolphin sighting data were collected during January 2010–December 2015; distance to coast, sea surface temperature, and chlorophyll a (Chla) were obtained for each sighting location through georeferenced maps and satellite images. A total of 746 spotted dolphin sightings were obtained with a survey effort of 31,695 km. Spotted dolphins in the MCP showed a predominantly coastal distribution regardless of environmental conditions. Significant differences were detected concerning regional seasonal variation, with higher mean sighting rate during the stratified periods and higher density/abundance estimates during the mixed periods. Spotted dolphins showed preference for warmer conditions, with higher mean sighting rate, abundance, and distance to coast during the neutral and warm interannual periods. During the coolest conditions (cold periods), mean sighting rate and abundance decreased and spotted dolphins were located closer to the coast, where Chla concentration increased. These results suggest that changes in the distribution/abundance of these dolphins could be associated with habitat quality related to tropical (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) and extratropical (The Blob) oceanographic phenomena, which could be modulating their foraging activities.

Boreal Summer Negative Correlation Relationship Between Interannual SST and Precipitation Anomalies in the Tropical and Subtropical Western North Pacific

AbstractWestern North Pacific (WNP) is a key region for ENSO development and its effect on East Asian summer monsoon. Different from most other tropical oceanic areas, sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation anomalies over the WNP are negatively correlated in boreal summer, indicating the ocean is mainly driven by the atmosphere rather than the opposite over there. Two interannual variability modes of such negative correlation relationship are revealed with SVD method, called tropical and subtropical WNP air‐sea coupled modes (WNP‐TCM and WNP‐STCM) in terms of their locations accordingly. Their core regions are both consistent with the near‐zero line of low‐level zonal wind, corresponding to the Northwest Pacific monsoon trough and the west ridge of WNP subtropical high, respectively. In WNP‐TCM, precipitation anomaly is caused by local vorticity anomaly, which is the result of Matsuno‐Gill response to SST anomalies with the reversed signs in central equatorial Pacific and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. In WNP‐STCM, it is produced by local divergence anomaly, which is remotely forced by SST anomalies with the same signs in equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean through anomalous Hadley circulation. SST anomalies in the two modes are both controlled by ocean thermal process, especially the solar radiation anomaly. The key factors determining such unique WNP air‐sea interaction are the weak latent heat flux and horizontal SST advection anomalies, which are both closely related to the near‐zero low‐level zonal wind. In addition, WNP‐TCM often happens in ENSO developing summer whereas WNP‐STCM usually appears in ENSO decaying summer.

Seasonality in the relationship between equatorial-mean heat content and interannual eastern equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature variability

Interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the tropical Atlantic Ocean lead to anomalous atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns with important ecological and socioeconomic consequences for the semiarid regions of sub-Saharan Africa and northeast Brazil. This interannual SST variability is characterized by three modes: an Atlantic meridional mode featuring an anomalous cross-equatorial SST gradient that peaks in boreal spring; an Atlantic zonal mode (Atlantic Niño mode) with SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Atlantic cold tongue region that peaks in boreal summer; and a second zonal mode of variability with eastern equatorial SST anomalies peaking in boreal winter. Here we investigate the extent to which there is any seasonality in the relationship between equatorial warm water recharge and the development of eastern equatorial Atlantic SST anomalies. Seasonally stratified cross-correlation analysis between eastern equatorial Atlantic SST anomalies and equatorial heat content anomalies (evaluated using warm water volume and sea surface height) indicate that while equatorial heat content changes do occasionally play a role in the development of boreal summer Atlantic zonal mode events, they contribute more consistently to Atlantic Niño II, boreal winter events. Event and composite analysis of ocean adjustment with a shallow water model suggest that the warm water volume anomalies originate mainly from the off-equatorial northwestern Atlantic, in agreement with previous studies linking them to anomalous wind stress curl associated with the Atlantic meridional mode.

Sea surface temperature trend analysis by Mann-Kendall test and sen’s slope estimator: a study of the Hai Phong coastal area (Vietnam) for the period 1995-2020

Based on the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope method, this study investigates the monthly, seasonal, and annual sea surface temperature (SST) trends in the coastal area of Hai Phong (West of Tonkin Gulf) based on the measurements at Hon Dau Station from 1995 to 2020. The results show a sea surface warming trend of 0.02°C/year for the period 1995-2020 (significant level α = 0.1) and of 0.093°C/year for the period 2008-2020 (significant level α = 0.05). The monthly SSTs in June and September increased by 0.027°C/year and 0.036°C/year, respectively, for the period 1995-2020, and by 0.080°C/year and 0.047°C/year, respectively, for the period 2008-2020. SST trends in winter, summer, and other months were either different for the two periods or not significant enough. This may be due to the impact of ENSO, which caused interannual SST variability in the Hai Phong coastal with two intrinsic mode functions (IMF) signals a period of ~2 (IMF3) and ~5.2 years cycle (IMF4). A combination of these signals had a maximum correlation of 0.22 with ONI (Oceanic Niño Index) delayed by 8 months. ENSO events took ~8 months to affect SST at Hai Phong coastal area for 1995-2020 and caused a variation of SST within 1.2°C.

Sea Surface Temperature Variability and Marine Heat Waves over the Aegean, Ionian, and Cretan Seas from 2008–2021

The sea surface temperature (SST) is an important factor and indicator of the sea water quality, with various ecological and anthropogenic implications. We used high-resolution satellite-derived SST data, in tandem with field observations and long-term meteorological data, to investigate the spatial and interannual SST variability over the Aegean, Ionian, and Cretan (AIC) Seas during the recent 14-year period (2008–2021). Increasing trends were identified for most of the sub-basins of the AIC Seas. The numbers and durations (days) of the marine heat waves (MHWs) have significantly increased, especially during the last quadrennial period (2018–2021). Changes have been detected in both the maximum and minimum values; however, the trend of the mean annual values is mainly associated with the interannual increases in the lowest values (weaker minima during the cold seasons). The interannual variability and the increasing positive trends of the air temperature are very similar to the SST variations, showing a 5-to-10-day lag between the seasonal time series of the two parameters for all regions; however, extreme atmospheric events (e.g., cold fronts or heat waves) have a more direct impact on the SST variability (zero lag). MHWs were more frequent over the northern Aegean Sea, especially in Thermaikos Gulf, which is characterized as a “hot spot” for MHWs. MHWs were rarer over the southern regions, especially over the southeastern Aegean and Cretan Seas. A stratified upper ocean, controlled by buoyant brackish plumes, such as the Black Sea Waters (BSW) in the northern Aegean, may increase the heat storage capacity of the surface water masses, contributing to the further warming of the ocean. This was the case in the summer of 2021, which was a unique year for the AIC Seas, and especially for the northern Aegean, which revealed the highest SST values among all the study years. The satellite-derived observations of the 2008–2021 period showed increasing trends for all coastal waters, strong trend slopes for most of the coasts of the northern Aegean and central Ionian Seas, and milder trend slopes in the eastern Aegean.

The 2019 Benguela Niño

High interannual sea surface temperature anomalies of more than 2°C were recorded along the coasts of Angola and Namibia between October 2019 and January 2020. This extreme coastal warm event that has been classified as a Benguela Niño, reached its peak amplitude in November 2019 in the Angola Benguela front region. In contrast to classical Benguela Niños, the 2019 Benguela Niño was generated by a combination of local and remote forcing. In September 2019, a local warming was triggered by positive anomalies of near coastal wind-stress curl leading to downwelling anomalies through Ekman dynamics off Southern Angola and by anomalously weak winds reducing the latent heat loss by the ocean south of 15°S. In addition, downwelling coastal trapped waves were observed along the African coast between mid-October 2019 and early January 2020. Those coastal trapped waves might have partly emanated from the equatorial Atlantic as westerly wind anomalies were observed in the central and eastern equatorial Atlantic between end of September to early December 2019. Additional forcing for the downwelling coastal trapped waves likely resulted from an observed weakening of the prevailing coastal southerly winds along the Angolan coast north of 15°S between October 2019 and mid-February 2020. During the peak of the event, latent heat flux damped the sea surface temperature anomalies mostly in the Angola Benguela front region. In the eastern equatorial Atlantic, relaxation of cross-equatorial southerly winds might have contributed to the equatorial warming in November 2019 during the peak of the 2019 Benguela Niño. Moreover, for the first time, moored velocities off Angola (11°S) revealed a coherent poleward flow in the upper 100 m in October and November 2019 suggesting a contribution of meridional heat advection to the near-surface warming during the early stages of the Benguela Niño. During the Benguela Niño, a reduction of net primary production in the Southern Angola and Angola Benguela front regions was observed.

Analysis of Ningaloo Niño simulated by two coupled models of FGOALS3

Ningaloo Niño, an interannual sea surface temperature (SST) warming phenomenon off western Australia, has a significant impact on the regional ecosystem and arouses economic damage. Using two coupled models of FGOALS-g3 and FGOALS-f3-L, we evaluated their simulation ability for Ningaloo Niño. The results show that the two models can reproduce the basic characteristics of Ningaloo Niño well, including the spatial pattern and phase-locking feature. The amplitude of Ningaloo Niño is underestimated in FGOALS-g3 but is well duplicated in FGOALS-f3-L. We found that the difference in cloud shortwave radiation-SST feedback between the two models is the key contributor to the different Ningaloo Niño amplitudes between the two models. A positive stratus cloud shortwave radiation-SST regime exhibits in the FGOALS-f3-L, which is similar to that operates in the observation; while FGOALS-g3 unsuccessfully simulates such shortwave radiation-SST regime, which may be traced back to the model parameterization schemes in the atmospheric component of FGOALS-g3. In the observation, the development of Ningaloo Niño involves two different modes (local mode and non-local mode). Our results show that the two modes can be reproduced well in FGOALS-g3, whereas only one single mode (say, local mode) is manifested in FGOALS-f3-L. From the statistical perspective, both the observation and FGOALS-g3 show that there is a significant connection between tropical ENSO signals and the Ningaloo Niño/Niña to some extent; while the FGOALS-f3-L does not have such a significant statistical relationship. Thus, it is argued that the failure in representing the inter-basin connection in the FGOALS-f3-L may be responsible for the absent non-local mode.

S2P3-R v2.0: computationally efficient modelling of shelf seas on regional to global scales

Abstract. The marine impacts of climate change on our societies will be largely felt through coastal waters and shelf seas. These impacts involve sectors as diverse as tourism, fisheries and energy production. Projections of future marine climate change come from global models. Modelling at the global scale is required to capture the feedbacks and large-scale transport of physical properties such as heat, which occur within the climate system, but global models currently cannot provide detail in the shelf seas. Version 2 of the regional implementation of the Shelf Sea Physics and Primary Production (S2P3-R v2.0) model bridges the gap between global projections and local shelf-sea impacts. S2P3-R v2.0 is a highly simplified coastal shelf model, computationally efficient enough to be run across the shelf seas of the whole globe. Despite the simplified nature of the model, it can display regional skill comparable to state-of-the-art models, and at the scale of the global (excluding high latitudes) shelf seas it can explain >50 % of the interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in ∼60 % of grid cells and >80 % of interannual variability in ∼20 % of grid cells. The model can be run at any resolution for which the input data can be supplied, without expert technical knowledge, and using a modest off-the-shelf computer. The accessibility of S2P3-R v2.0 places it within reach of an array of coastal managers and policy makers, allowing it to be run routinely once set up and evaluated for a region under expert guidance. The computational efficiency and relative scientific simplicity of the tool make it ideally suited to educational applications. S2P3-R v2.0 is set up to be driven directly with output from reanalysis products or daily atmospheric output from climate models such as those which contribute to the sixth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project, making it a valuable tool for semi-dynamical downscaling of climate projections. The updates introduced into version 2.0 of this model are primarily focused around the ability to geographical relocate the model, model usability and speed but also scientific improvements. The value of this model comes from its computational efficiency, which necessitates simplicity. This simplicity leads to several limitations, which are discussed in the context of evaluation at regional and global scales.

Remote and Local Processes Controlling Decadal Sea Ice Variability in the Weddell Sea

AbstractSea ice in the Weddell Sea plays important roles in the albedo, air‐sea heat, freshwater, and gas exchanges and the formation of the Antarctic Bottom Water on the continental shelf that regulates global climate through deep thermohaline circulation. Sea ice extent (SIE) in the Weddell Sea does not show any significant trend in the four‐decade satellite observation period but does experience large interannual‐to‐decadal variability. Physical processes underlying this variability are difficult to examine because of a paucity of prolonged observations. Using a coupled general circulation model, we corroborate the observational finding that decadal increases in SIE are preceded by weakening of the mean westerly winds linked to the Southern Annular Mode. Weakening of the westerly winds over the Weddell Sea reduces the northward Ekman current and suppresses upwelling of warm water from the subsurface ocean; this lowers the upper‐ocean temperature, causing an increase in sea ice. In a sensitivity experiment where the interannual sea surface temperature variations are suppressed outside the South Atlantic and the Weddell Sea, decadal increase in the SIE over the Weddell Sea is induced by a decrease in the upper‐ocean temperature owing to enhanced horizontal advection by the Weddell Gyre. The strengthening of the Weddell Gyre increases the upper‐ocean salinity as a result of enhanced evaporation and brine rejection associated with the sea ice increase. These results demonstrate that both the remote atmospheric forcing and local ice‐ocean interaction are crucial for generation of decadal sea ice variability in the Weddell Sea.