Interannual Sea Level Anomalies Research Articles

Interannual Sea Level Variability along the U.S. East Coast during the Satellite Altimetry Era: Local versus Remote Forcing

Abstract The contributions of local and remote forcings to the interannual sea level anomalies (SLAs) along the U.S. East Coast (USEC) during the satellite altimetry era from 1993 to 2019 are quantified with analytical models assisted by statistical methods. The local forcings from alongshore wind stress, sea level pressure via inverted barometer (IB) effect, and river discharges together explain 47%, 60.4%, and 66.8% of coastal sea level variance in the South Atlantic Bight (SAB), Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB), and Gulf of Maine (GOM), respectively, with river discharges having the minimum contribution. Over a longer period of 1960–2019, the contribution of local forcings reduces significantly, with the IB effect having the minimum contribution. The remote forcings associated with open-ocean signals from the east and from the northern boundary at the Scotian coast together with the Gulf Stream (GS) variability explain 45.7%, 28.5%, and 37.7% of coastal sea level variance in the SAB, MAB, and GOM, respectively, playing a role comparable to that of local forcings in the SAB. The open-ocean sea level signals from 35° to 38°N strongly influence coastal SLAs in the SAB. The coastal SLAs in the SAB are also affected by the upstream GS strength (28°–36°N) and basin-scale wind stress curl anomaly, which is linked to the meridional shift in the downstream GS (74°–68°W). Remote forcings from the subpolar North Atlantic and wind stress curl from the Grand Banks to the Scotian coast influence coastal SLAs in the GOM and MAB via the northern boundary of the USEC at the Scotian coast.

Sea Level Interannual Variability Along the West Coast of India

AbstractInterannual sea level anomalies (SLA), and the related thermocline variations, along the west coast of India (WCI) strongly impact the ecosystems, fisheries, and potentially the monsoon rainfall. Here we investigate the mechanisms driving the WCI interannual SLA using a linear continuously stratified ocean model, which realistically simulates the leading northern Indian Ocean SLA mode associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). During, for example, positive IOD events, easterly wind anomalies near Sri Lanka in late summer and fall force downwelling coastal Kelvin waves, which induce positive WCI SLA within days. Meanwhile, equatorial easterlies force upwelling Kelvin waves that travel to WCI through the Bay of Bengal coastal waveguide. Part of this opposite signal also transits slowly through the Bay of Bengal interior as Rossby waves, eventually yielding negative SLA along the WCI in winter. The WCI SLA thus shifts from positive in fall to negative in winter during positive IOD events.

Interannual and long-term sea level variability in the eastern Indian Ocean and South China Sea

Sea level anomalies (SLAs) derived from satellite observations (over a period of 22 years) and tide gauge data compiled from 66 stations from the eastern Indian Ocean and South China Sea (SCS) and western Pacific Ocean have been analyzed to study the interannual to long term variation of SLAs in the eastern Indian Ocean and SCS. Spatial patterns of sea level variability on the eastern boundary of the Indian Ocean exhibit non-coherent variability with SCS but show coherent variability with western Pacific Ocean. We find coherent variability in interannual SLAs in the Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea, Malacca Strait and Java Strait. A large fraction of interannual SLA variations in the eastern SCS and interior SCS is linked to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and rest of the region is characterized by small scale interannual variations. The interannual SLAs in the SCS show seasonality with pronounced variation during winter and fall seasons. Interannual surface wind anomalies associated with Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and ENSO explain sea level interannual variability in the eastern Indian Ocean and SCS. The decadal sea level variability associated with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and decadal ENSO are observed in the SCS.

Seasonal coastal sea level prediction using a dynamical model

AbstractSea level varies on a range of time scales from tidal to decadal and centennial change. To date, little attention has been focussed on the prediction of interannual sea level anomalies. Here we demonstrate that forecasts of coastal sea level anomalies from the dynamical Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) have significant skill throughout the equatorial Pacific and along the eastern boundaries of the Pacific and Indian Oceans at lead times out to 8 months. POAMA forecasts for the western Pacific generally have greater skill than persistence, particularly at longer lead times. POAMA also has comparable or greater skill than previously published statistical forecasts from both a Markov model and canonical correlation analysis. Our results indicate the capability of physically based models to address the challenge of providing skillful forecasts of seasonal sea level fluctuations for coastal communities over a broad area and at a range of lead times.

Inter-annual sea level variability in the southern South China Sea

The South China Sea (SCS) is the largest marginal sea in the western Pacific Basin. Sea level anomalies (SLAs) in the southern South China Sea (SSCS) are assumed to be governed by various phenomena associated with the adjacent parts of the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. We have used monthly sea level anomalies obtained from 12 tide gauge stations of PSMSL and UHSLC and merged and gridded AVISO products of SLAs (sea level anomalies) derived from satellite altimeter. We find that IOD-influenced inter-annual variations are found only in the southwestern and southeastern coastal regions of SSCS. Our analysis reveals that inter-annual regional sea level drops are associated with positive phase of the IOD, and the rises with negative phase of the IOD. SLA variations at decadal scale in the southeastern and northern Gulf of Thailand correlate with Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO). Multiple linear regression analysis of inter-annual SLAs and climate indices shows that IOD induced inter-annual variations dominate in the southwestern SCS and it contributes to about ~40% of inter-annual sea level variation. Meanwhile, ENSO contributes to around ~30% variation in sea level in the southwestern and ~40% variation in the southeastern SSCS. The present study also suggests that inter-annual SLA variations in the SSCS can occur by ENSO and IOD induced changes in wind stress curl and volume transport variations.

ENSO components of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and their relation to North Atlantic interannual coastal sea level anomalies

Abstract. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) are known to influence coastal water levels along the East Coast of the United States. By identifying empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), which coherently contribute from the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) to the AMO index (AMOI), we characterize both the expression of ENSO in the unsmoothed AMOI, and coherent relationships between these indices and interannual sea level anomalies at six stations in the Gulf of Mexico and western North Atlantic. Within the ENSO band (2–7 yr periods) the total contribution of MEI to unsmoothed AMOI variability is 79%. Cross correlation suggests that the MEI leads expression of the ENSO signature in the AMOI by six months, consistent with the mechanism of an atmospheric bridge. Within the ENSO band, essentially all of the coupling between the unsmoothed AMOI and sea level anomalies is the result of ENSO expression in the AMOI. At longer periods we find decadal components of sea level anomalies linked to the AMOI at three southern stations (Key West, Pensacola, Charleston), but not at the northern stations (Baltimore, Boston, Portland), with values of coherence ranging from 20 to 50%. The coherence of MEI to coastal sea level anomalies has a different structure and is generally weaker than that of the ENSO expressed AMOI influence, suggesting distinct physical mechanisms are influencing sea level anomalies due to a direct ENSO teleconnection when compared to teleconnections based on ENSO expression in the AMOI. It is expected that applying this analysis to extremes of sea level anomalies will reveal additional influences.

Sea Level Expression of Intrinsic and Forced Ocean Variabilities at Interannual Time Scales

Abstract This paper evaluates in a realistic context the local contributions of direct atmospheric forcing and intrinsic oceanic processes on interannual sea level anomalies (SLAs). A ¼° global ocean–sea ice general circulation model, driven over 47 yr by the full range of atmospheric time scales, is quantitatively assessed against altimetry and shown to reproduce most observed features of the interannual SLA variability from 1993 to 2004. Comparing this simulation with a second driven only by the climatological annual cycle reveals that the intrinsic part of the total interannual SLA variance exceeds 40% over half of the open-ocean area and exceeds 80% over one-fifth of it. This intrinsic contribution is particularly strong in eddy-active regions (more than 70%–80% in the Southern Ocean and western boundary current extensions) as predicted by idealized studies, as well as within the 20°–35° latitude bands. The atmosphere directly forces most of the interannual SLA variance at low latitudes and in most midlatitude eastern basins, in particular north of about 40°N in the Pacific. The interannual SLA variance is almost entirely due to intrinsic processes south of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in the Indian Ocean sector, while half of this variance is forced by the atmosphere north of it. The same simulations were performed and analyzed at 2° resolution as well: switching to this laminar regime yields a comparable forced variability (large-scale distribution and magnitude) but almost suppresses the intrinsic variability. This likely explains why laminar ocean models largely underestimate the interannual SLA variance.

A global comparison of Argo and satellite altimetry observations

Abstract. Differences, similarities and complementarities between Sea Level Anomalies (SLA) deduced from altimeter measurements and dynamic height anomalies (DHA) calculated from Argo in situ temperature (T) and salinity (S) profiles are globally analyzed. SLA and DHA agree remarkably well and, compared to previous studies, Argo dataset allows an improvement in the coherence between SLA and DHA. Indeed, Argo data provides a much better spatial coverage of all oceans and particularly the Southern Ocean, the use of an Argo mean dynamic height, the use of measured salinity profiles (versus climatological salinity), and the use of a deeper reference level (1000 m versus 700 m). The large influence of Argo salinity observations on the consistency between altimetry and hydrographic observations is particularly demonstrated with an improvement of 35% (relative to the SLA minus DHA signal) by using measured salinity profiles instead of climatological data. The availability of observations along the Argo float trajectories also provides a means to describe the sea level variability of the global ocean both for the low frequency and the mesoscale part of the circulation. Results indicate that sea level variability is dominated by baroclinic signal at seasonal to inter-annual periods for all latitudes. In the tropics, sea level variability is baroclinic for meso-scale to interannual periods and at high latitudes, sea level variability is barotropic with also deep baroclinic signals (i.e. influence of deep temperature and salinity signals) for intra seasonal and mesoscale periods. These results emphasize the need to separate the different time and space scales in order to improve the merging of the two data sets. The qualitative study of seasonal to interannual SLA minus DHA signals finally reveals signals related to deep ocean circulation variations and basin-scale barotropic signals. Future work is, however, needed to understand the observed differences and relate them to different forcing mechanisms.

A 20-year varve record of siliceous phytoplankton variability in the central Gulf of California

Year-to-year variability in the structure of the preserved siliceous phytoplankton assemblage is reconstructed from a box core retrieved from the varved sediments along the Guaymas slope of the Gulf of California. A 20-year record from 1953 through 1972 is obtained from interpretation of the varve stratigraphy supported by 210Pb and 228Th dating. Ecological time series derived from microfossil analysis show a strong coherence with interannual sea-level anomalies indicating a response to large-scale climatic variability associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon. El Niño periods are generally marked by increases in preserved abundances of the total siliceous assemblage and in particular by greater numbers of individuals within species whose distribution is limited to tropical and subtropical waters.