Intertemporal Differences Research Articles

A Model-Based Estimate of the Cost-Effectiveness Threshold in Germany.

Value-based pricing of new, innovative health technologies defined as pricing through economic evaluation requires the use of a basic cost-effectiveness threshold. This study presents a cost-effectiveness model that determines the cost-effectiveness threshold for life-extending new, innovative technologies based on health system opportunity costs. To estimate health system opportunity costs, the study used German data and examined the period between 1896 and 2014. To this end, it determined intertemporal differences in the remaining lifetime spending and life expectancy by age and gender. To account for the age composition of the population, it weighted age-specific intertemporal changes in the remaining lifetime spending and life expectancy by the age-specific population size. To estimate life expectancy gains solely attributable to the health care system, it used aggregated data on amenable mortality. It calculated the cost-effectiveness ratio of health care spending in the German health care system on average and at the margin. Based on the cost-effectiveness ratio of health care spending at the margin, the threshold value for life-prolonging new, innovative technologies was at least €42,634 per life-year gained, with a point estimate of €88,107 per life-year gained. Based on the average ratio, the threshold value dropped below €34,000 per life-year gained. This study provides new evidence on the cost-effectiveness threshold for value-based pricing of new, innovative technologies. Data from Germany suggest that a threshold value based on health care spending at the margin is considerably higher than that based on the average ratio.

Intertemporal and cross-sectional contrasts in effects of trade: Significance of the technology content of exports

This study identifies cross-country and intertemporal differences in the effects of trade exposure on per capita national income. We develop a small open economy endogenous growth model with high- and low-technology sectors and endogenous human capital accumulation. We then test the predictions of our model on a sample of 70 countries over the period 1980–2017. Our main assertion is that gains from trade are not only disproportionate across countries but also contrasting over time, depending on the technology intensity of exports. Countries with lower initial experience in the production of technology-intensive goods and services tend to specialize in sectors with lower demand for better-educated and high-skilled workforce, which lowers the return to and individual incentives for education. Consequently, trade-induced specialization patterns, due to their implications about technological progress, appear to be an important factor causing cross-national divergence in welfare. Our theoretical model implies that, in an unskilled labor-abundant country, higher exposure to international trade can decrease the long-run growth rate, even though it increases short-run per capita income. In a skilled-labor abundant country, both short-run and long-run effects are positive. Our empirical findings, which identify short-run and long-run effects separately, strongly support these predictions.

Inter-temporal differences in regional development

ABSTRACT A comparison of major aspects of economic structure and access to resources (value added, consumption, diversity, sectoral shares, degree of urbanization, population with high-end skills and access to financial resources) for Indian regions (all states and union territories across the country with larger states divided into smaller and more comparable subregional units of NSS regions) between 2004–05 and 2011–12 identifies the factors that differentiate regions and shows that differences in these factors have increased over time. A step-wise discriminant analysis indicates that regional output and consumption were the key distinguishing factors, along with the sectoral composition of the regional economy. Clear evidence was found of a move towards greater diversity in the local economy, the emergence of construction and other service sectors with significant shares, and increased but more unequal access to finance and skills.

Price Discrimination along Multiple Dimensions: New Evidence from a Regional Airline

I examine the case of a firm that practices both second-degree and third-degree price discrimination. I present a model showing conditions under which the premium for higher quality can either rise or fall as the firm implements group pricing. I then use new data from a regional airline to estimate how the two kinds of price discrimination interact, and how each is affected by changes in competition. I establish three key results, all new to the literature. First, in different markets, the two kinds of price discrimination can either offset or reinforce each other, in a manner that fits the model's predictions. Second, inter-temporal differences in prices are purely driven by price discrimination, rather than by scarcity pricing. Third, competition increases the extent of both kinds of price discrimination.

Thousands Of Lives Could Be Saved In The US During The COVID-19 Pandemic If States Exchanged Ventilators.

It is thought that there are not enough mechanical ventilators in the United States for every patient who may need one during the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. However, there has been no analysis that measures the potential magnitude of the problem or proposes a solution. In this article I combine the pandemic forecasting model used by the federal government with estimates of ventilator availability from the literature to assess the expected shortage under various scenarios. I then propose that the federal government organize a national effort for ventilators to be exchanged between states to take advantage of the intertemporal differences in demand peaks. I evaluate versions of this proposal, including use of the national stockpile, to estimate the potentially substantial number of lives that could be saved. In the absence of other viable solutions, the government should begin this effort in earnest, or else make preparations for such coordination should the country face another pandemic in the future.

The non-audit fee and the auditee’s failure risk

This paper examines whether the auditee’s financial situation affects the auditor’s non-audit fee and independ- ence. Three sets of tests were used to address the issue. The first examines whether there are cross-border and intertemporal differences in relationships between non-audit fees and audit fees. The second tests whether there is a relationship between non-audit fees and report modification. The third addresses the relationships between audit fees and the auditee’s financial situation. The results suggest a lack of coexistence of all three motives for the purchase of non-audit fee services, and substantial similarities of auditor and auditee behaviors across Po- land and New Zealand. We documented the lack of a significant link between auditee failure risk and the quality of the audit report. Our findings indicate an operational rather than a strategic nature of non-audit services to incumbent clients.

Beliefs and Economic Growth: Cross-National Evidence Based on the World Values Survey (WVS)

This paper is concerned with the relationship between beliefs and economic performance and explains the differences of country performance in global economic growth over the past two decades based on the composite belief index comprising the beliefs on trust, social justice, competition and work-leisure. By influencing personal motivations, beliefs shape society and the institutions and policies of a country in the form of collective ideology. Beliefs demonstrate great differences across countries and change with time, which helps explain the country and intertemporal differences of growth. This paper also found that China’s composite belief index is very high, which helps explain China’s economic growth miracle.

Intertemporal Differences Among MTurk Workers: Time-Based Sample Variations and Implications for Online Data Collection

The online labor market Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk) is an increasingly popular source of respondents for social science research. A growing body of research has examined the demographic composition of MTurk workers as compared with that of other populations. While these comparisons have revealed the ways in which MTurk workers are and are not representative of the general population, variations among samples drawn from MTurk have received less attention. This article focuses on whether MTurk sample composition varies as a function of time. Specifically, we examine whether demographic characteristics vary by (a) time of day, (b) day of week, and serial position (i.e., earlier or later in data collection), both (c) across the entire data collection and (d) within specific batches. We find that day of week differences are minimal, but that time of day and serial position are associated with small but important variations in demographic composition. This demonstrates that MTurk samples cannot be presumed i...

The Cardinal Anomalies that Led to Behavioral Economics: Cognitive or Motivational?

The field of behavioral economics (BE) has been defined by the study of anomalies in choice, that is, choices that do not obey what is called rational choice theory or expected utility theory. Expected utility theory holds that an intelligent and well‐informed agent (‘economic man’) will make choices that maximize his expected utility, which by implication means avoiding choice patterns that would make him (her hereafter) vulnerable in competitive markets—for instance, to be money pumped, or make intransitive choices or choices that could be reversed by reframing. Research in two disparate schools has found that people commit a number of apparent violations of the maximizing principle. These traditions have formed the two legs on which BE stands: behavioral and cognitive.During the 1970s and 1980s, both schools found anomalies in expected utility theory that called for new approaches. The behavioral school revealed anomalies in choice as a function of intertemporal differences in motivation, thus creating the topics of dynamic inconsistency and hyperbolic and quasihyperbolic delay discounting. The cognitive school revealed anomalies in choice as a function of cognitive framing, which are summarized in prospect theory. These anomalies have remained the cardinal phenomena of BE. Critics have called the resulting literature ‘a ragbag’, but I argue that the 12 best‐known framing effects have coherent motivational roots. Most anomalies that persist after reflection can be understood as strategies in intertemporal bargaining, for maximizing hyperbolically discounted utility (or reward). Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA

Social and intertemporal differences of basic numeracy in Pannonia (first century BCE to third century CE)

In this study, we assess the human capital of Roman legionaries, officers and the civilian population born between the first century BCE and the third century CE in Pannonia (today’s West Hungary). Age-heaping techniques allow the measurement of human capital for this early period, although we need to discuss intensively potential selectivity. We find that the Roman military benefited strongly from occupational choice selectivity: those social groups who decided for a military career had better numeracy values than the remainder of the population. This applied especially to the first centuries BCE and CE. Over time, however, the civilian population converged to the military occupational groups. This ‘military bias’ analysis also contributes to the debate about long-term growth determinants: in some societies, the most educated parts of the elites selected a military career, rather than opting for entreprenuerial activities which might have impacted more positively on macroeconomic growth.

Jump processes in natural gas markets

Many analysts believe that natural gas will have an increasingly important role in the next few decades. Accordingly, understanding the underpinnings of natural gas prices is likely to be critical, both to policy analysts and to market participants. At present, it is common to assume that these prices follow a geometric Brownian motion, i.e., that log returns – the inter-temporal differences in the natural log of prices – are normally distributed (possibly allowing for some form of mean-reversion). Increasingly, however, it has been recognized that the arrival of new information can lead to unexpectedly rapid changes – or jumps – in spot prices. The implication is that the presumption of normally distributed log-returns may be suspect. In particular, the prospect for abnormally fat tails becomes important. This article investigates the potential presence of jumps in two key natural gas prices: the spot price at the Henry Hub in the U. S., and the spot price for natural gas at the National Balancing Point in the U. K. We found compelling empirical evidence for the importance of jumps in both markets, though jumps appear to be more important in the U. K.

Firms, Markets, and the State: Institutional Change and Manufacturing Sector Profitability Variances in India

We assess absolute magnitudes, relative importance, and intertemporal differences in firm, industry, and business group effects in explaining the variance of Indian manufacturing firms’ profitability over the 26-year period between 1980–1981 and 2005–2006. We stratify the data by institutional phases to place emphasis on the role of changing institutional factors in an emerging economy: first as a regime of command and control transits to partial liberalization (between 1985 and 1991) and then to an open competitive market economy (after 1991); thereafter, financial reforms occur, followed by legal reforms. We find that liberalization significantly affects and alters the relative importance of firm, industry, and group effects. Firm effects are always important, whether in a command and control regime, with benefits accruing from protectionism and political rent seeking, or in liberalized periods where firm-specific capabilities and dynamic efficiencies are valued. Industry effects are significant in the command and control regime, when mandatory sector placement benefits firms in industries with superior profits, and in the liberalized period, when the choice of the industry segment in which to operate is open to firms. Thereafter, industry effects dissipate. Business group effects matter in explaining profitability variances. Group effects’ magnitudes, however, do not change significantly over time.

The Social Costs of Gun Ownership: Spurious Regression and Unfounded Public Policy Advocacy

In 2006, a study, published in the Journal of Public Economics, employing a panel regression of 200 U.S. counties across 20 years, found a significant elasticity of homicides with respect to firearms ownership. Based on this finding the authors made the public policy recommendation of taxing gun ownership. However that study fell prey to the ratio fallacy, a trap known since 1896. All the explanatory power (goodness-of-fit-wise and significance-wise) of the original analysis was due to regional and inter-temporal differences and population being explained by itself. When the ratio fallacy is accounted for, all authors’ results can no longer be found. This is illustrated in this paper using a balanced panel from the data for 1980 to 2004. My findings are robust to (i) alternative specifications not subject to the ratio problem, (ii) using only data from 1980 to 1999 as in the original paper, (iii) using an unbalanced panel for 1980 to either 1999 or 2004, (iv) applying weighting as done by the original authors and (v) using data aggregated at the state level.

Understanding the effects on HR-QoL of treatment for overactive bladder: a detailed analysis of EQ-5D clinical trial data for mirabegron

Background:Analysis of EQ-5D data often focuses on changes in utility, ignoring valuable information from other parts of the instrument. The objective was to explore how the utility index, EQ-5D profile, and EQ-VAS captured change in clinical trials of mirabegron, a new treatment for overactive bladder (OAB).Data:Data were pooled from three phase III clinical trials that investigated the efficacy and safety of mirabegron vs placebo. Tolterodine ER 4 mg was included as an active control in one study: (1) placebo, mirabegron 50 mg and 100 mg, and tolterodine 4 mg ER; (2) placebo, mirabegron 50 mg and 100 mg; (3) placebo, and mirabegron 25 mg and 50 mg. Data were collected at baseline, week 4, 8, and 12.Methods:Analyses were performed on full analysis and modified intention to treat (ITT) data sets using UK utilities. Analysis controlled for relevant patient characteristics. Analysis of Covariance identified changes from baseline at each time point in utilities and EQ-VAS. Areas Under the Curve were estimated to summarize inter-temporal differences in effect. EQ-5D profile data were analysed using the Paretian Classification of Health Change.Results:In modified ITT analyses, mirabegron 50 mg was superior to tolterodine 4 mg in changes from baseline utilities after 12 weeks (p < 0.05); similarly, AUC results showed mirabegron 50 mg to be superior to tolterodine (p < 0.05) and placebo (p < 0.05) with the benefit already apparent at 4 weeks (p < 0.05). EQ-VAS more consistently indicated superior outcomes: all three mirabegron doses showed statistically significant greater effectiveness compared to tolterodine at 12 weeks. Individual EQ-5D dimensions and the overall profile showed no significant differences between study arms.Conclusion:Mirabegron showed quicker and superior improvement in HR-QoL compared to tolterodine 4 mg ER. A limitation of the study is that EQ-5D was a secondary outcome in the pivotal trials, which were not powered to measure differences on EQ-5D.

Conceptualizing and Measuring Rule of Law Constructs, 1850–2010

AbstractThis article outlines an effort to gauge cross-national and intertemporal differences in law-based orders for 165 nations from 1850 to 2010. Despite the increasing importance attributed to “the rule of law,” there have been few efforts to develop objective measures of it. The conceptual foundations for this effort rest on a review of centuries of scholarship concerning the societal utility of law. Data are drawn from a variety of sources to create two composite measures. The derivation of these measures is reported and the measures are examined to determine whether they present reinforcing profiles of a country's legal order.

Why aren't developed countries saving?

National saving rates differ enormously across developed countries. But these differences obscure a common trend, namely a dramatic decline over time. France and Italy, for example, saved over 23% and 19% of national income in 1970, but only 9% and 4% respectively in 2008. Japan saved almost 33% in 1970, but only 7% in 2008. And the U.S. saved around 11% in 1970, but only 1% in 2008. What explains these international and intertemporal differences? Is it demographics, government spending, productivity growth or preferences?For the U.S. and France, whose saving behavior we study, preferences appear to be an important factor. American and French societies are placing increasing weight on the welfare of those currently alive, particularly contemporaneous older generations. Government spending also appears to be one of the reasons why France is saving at much lower rates. These conclusions emerge from estimating two models in which society makes consumption and labor supply decisions in light of uncertainty over future government spending, productivity, and social preferences. The two models differ in terms of the nature of preference uncertainty and the extent to which current society can control future societies' spending and labor supply decisions.

GOVERNMENT FISCAL BEHAVIOR AND ECONOMIC GROWTH OF SINGAPORE IN THE TWENTIETH CENTURY

This paper reviews the trends in the government fiscal structure and explores the possible relationships between government fiscal expenditure and economic growth in Singapore over the 20th century. It is a reasonable conjecture that the government fiscal behavior and in particular vis-à-vis economic growth had undergone a significant shift as Singapore switched from British colonial rule to self-government. The paper first traces out the characteristics of the colonial government fiscal behavior and compares them with those during the period of self-government in terms of sources and uses of revenue and fiscal balance. This is then followed by econometric exercises to ascertain whether the government fiscal expenditure responds to income movements broadly in the spirit of Wagner's law in 1900–1939 and 1966–2000. Generally, attention is focused upon inter-temporal similarities and differences.

A Question of Timing: Intertemporal Performance Differences for Exploration and Exploitation in the Mutual Fund Industry

A Question of Timing: Intertemporal Performance Differences for Exploration and Exploitation in the Mutual Fund Industry

Who Is Affected by Neighbourhood Income Mix? Gender, Age, Family, Employment and Income Differences

This paper analyses the degree to which the mixture of low-, middle- and high-income males in the neighbourhood affects the subsequent earnings of individuals, and aims to test explicitly the degree to which these impacts vary across gender, age, presence of children, employment status or income at the start of the analysis period. An intertemporal differences specification of an econometric model is employed to eliminate the potential selection bias arising from unmeasured individual characteristics, utilising data on 1.67 million adults living in Swedish metropolitan areas 1991—99. It is found that there are important differences in the nature and magnitude of neighbourhood income mix effects in several dimensions, but many are statistically and economically significant. Neighbourhood mix effects are consistently stronger for parents and those who do not work full-time, independently of other individual dimensions, although a combination of personal attributes typically governs the vulnerability of the individual to the neighbourhood.

Party Non-Systems

This article makes a case for expansion of the conceptual framework for the classification of party universe types. In particular, it introduces the concept of ‘party non-systems’, defined as those party universes characterized by a fundamental absence of inter-temporal continuity in the identity of the main parties. At the heart of this concept is the explicit differentiation between intra- and extra-systemic volatility. Party non-systems are characterized by persistently high transfers of votes away from the main parties towards new and small parties (i.e. high extra-systemic volatility), an ever-changing constellation of parties without a stable ‘core’. It is argued that the difference between non-systems and all other party universe types is not only one of degree (in level of institutionalization), but also one of kind. This conceptual innovation is then applied to a number of Latin American cases (Guatemala, Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia) at the low end of the institutionalization continuum to highlight important cross-country and inter-temporal differences in the nature of (core) party competition.