Interstate Migration Research Articles

Growth Effects of Fiscal Policy of India States

As witnessed in the recent past, lopsided regional development has become a threat to inter-state migration in India. This can also thwart the peace and security in the country. No wonder then that development has become an electoral agenda at the state level. The development deficit at the state level is being taken cognisance of not only by the academicians but by political leadership as well. In view of this, this paper examines the role of fiscal policy implemented by the states in reducing the regional disparities in the economic growth across states. We examine the growth effects of fiscal policy instruments of the major states of India during the period 1980-81 to 2006-07, using the panel data approach. The study finds that fiscal deficits of the states result in contraction of growth. As regards the impacts of the various items that constitute the fiscal deficit, viz., taxes, revenue expenditures and capital expenditures, the impact of each of these items on the growth of the states has been found to differ. Capital expenditures, particularly those on transport, communications and education are found to promote economic growth, albeit with a time lag. The study also raises concerns over the deterioration in the quality of fiscal deficit of states due to its adverse implications on economic growth. Based on the empirical results, we advocate increased capital expenditure at the state level as an integral part of the strategy for regionally-balanced growth. A positive externality of this strategy could also reduce expenditure on the internal aggression across the states of India.

Modeling Network Autocorrelation in Space–Time Migration Flow Data: An Eigenvector Spatial Filtering Approach

Gravity-type spatial interaction models have been popularly utilized in modeling cross-sectional migration data, but their misspecification also has been raised in the literature. This misspecification issue principally concerns an insufficient accounting of underlying effects of spatial structure, including the presence of network autocorrelation among migration flows. Recent studies reveal that spatial interaction models are significantly improved by incorporating network autocorrelation in log-linear or Poisson regression estimation techniques, which are common estimation methods for spatial interaction models. However, when migration flows are structured as a panel data set from multiple time periods, the data set is likely to display temporal correlation within each measurement unit (here, each flow between a dyad of an origin and a destination) as well as network autocorrelation within each time period. Hence, spatial interaction models should be explicitly specified to account for these two different types of correlation structure. Using the eigenvector spatial filtering technique, this article outlines how to model network autocorrelation among migration flows structured through multiple time spans in either a linear or a generalized linear mixed model. An analysis of annual U.S. interstate migration data reported by the U.S. Internal Revenue Service shows that incorporation of two different types of autocorrelation leads to an improvement of model fitting and more intuitive parameter estimates.

The Changing Roles of Disability, Veteran, and Socioeconomic Status in Elderly Interstate Migration

This research explores how interstate elderly migration behavior through the life course has changed over time by examining the role of individual characteristics in different types of moves. The authors focus on disability, veteran, and socioeconomic status, which research suggests are linked with differing motives for elderly migration. Using data from the 1970-2000 Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS), descriptive and multivariate analyses show that disability status has grown in importance while veteran and socioeconomic status have declined or remained stable. These changes are unique to the elderly. The growing role of disability in elderly migration is geographically universal, extending to both return (a proxy for assistance-related migration) and nonreturn migration. Possible explanations include a tendency for the “first” (amenity-based) elderly move to occur at younger ages and a decline in primarily milder disabilities that leads to relatively more severe disabilities—and need for assistance—of those remaining.

Interstate Migration and Changing Food Preferences in India

India is a diversified country. Just as the geography, religion, and culture of India are diverse, so are Indians' food habits. Even so, regional heterogeneity in food consumption exists across states. But it may be hypothesized that regional heterogeneity in food consumption across states has been declining. This hypothesis is based on the fact that interstate migration has been growing since 1991. The present study tested whether or not regional heterogeneity in food consumption has been declining over the years 1993–1994, 1999–2000, and 2004–2005. The authors show that regional heterogeneity declined over these periods and that both rural and urban consumers shifted their preference from cereals to non-cereals. However, the article also provides some evidence that regional disparities remain in India. Implications of this shift in consumption are discussed.

Patterns of Interstate Migration in the United States from the Survey of Income and Program Participation

The authors describe the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) as a data source for migration studies. The SIPP is a panel dataset that provides information on income, employment outcomes, and participation in government programs. Survey participants are interviewed for up to four years even if they move to a new household or that household migrates within the United States. This unique longitudinal design gives the survey a strong advantage over traditional data sources. The authors illustrate differences in the propensity for interstate migration among differ ent demographic groups over the 12-year period from 1996 to 2008. They also analyze the rela tion ship between migration choices and life-changing events, such as becoming jobless or dissolu tion of a marriage. Their findings suggest that future research should consider the migration choices of individuals near retirement age. (JEL J11, J24, J61, R23)

The Effect of Expected Income on Individual Migration Decisions

The paper develops a tractable econometric model of optimal migration, focusing on expected income as the main economic influence on migration. The model improves on previous work in two respects: it covers optimal sequences of location decisions (rather than a single once-for-all choice), and it allows for many alternative location choices. The model is estimated using panel data from the NLSY on white males with a high school education. Our main conclusion is that interstate migration decisions are influenced to a substantial extent by income prospects. The results suggest that the link between income and migration decisions is driven both by geographic differences in mean wages and by a tendency to move in search of a better locational match when the income realization in the current location is unfavorable.

The Demographic Dividend: Evidence From the Indian States

Large cohorts of young adults are poised to add to the working-age population of developing economies. Despite much interest in the consequent growth dividend, the size and circumstances of the potential gains remain under-explored. This study makes progress by focusing on India, which will be the largest individual contributor to the global demographic transition ahead. It exploits the variation in the age structure of the population across Indian states to identify the demographic dividend. The main finding is that there is a large and significant growth impact of both the level and growth rate of the working age ratio. This result is robust to a variety of empirical strategies, including a correction for inter-state migration. The results imply that a substantial fraction of the growth acceleration that India has experienced since the 1980s - sometimes ascribed exclusively to economic reforms - is attributable to changes in the country’s age structure. Moreover, the demographic dividend could add about 2 percentage points per annum to India’s per capita GDP growth over the next two decades. With the future expansion of the working age ratio concentrated in some of India’s poorest states, income convergence may well speed up, a theme likely to recur on the global stage.

Trade, Tastes and Nutrition in India

This paper introduces habit formation into an otherwise standard model of international trade. Household tastes evolve over time to favor foods consumed as a child. The opening of trade causes preferred goods to rise in price, as these were relatively inexpensive in autarky. Neglecting the correlation between tastes and agro-climatic endowments overstates the short-run nutritional gains from agricultural trade liberalization and masks potential caloric losses for laborers. I examine the predictions of this model of trade with habit formation using household survey data from India, both by looking across Indian regions and by examining the consumption patterns of inter-state migrants.

The Influence of Booms and Busts in the U.S. Economy on the Interstate Migration System

ABSTRACTMigration flows around the U.S. have shown a great deal of temporal and geographical differentiation over the past few decades. However, the recent downturn in the U.S. economy provides a renewed motivation to explore the relationship between the macro‐economy and interstate migration. To address this issue, in this paper patterns of interstate migration are analyzed using IRS data and several migration efficiency measures for 18 2‐year time periods, 1988–2006. Included in the analysis is an examination of the relationship between system migration and economic change, structural changes in the migration system over time (national and state level), and changes in the geography of state‐level migration efficiency rates. As might be expected, the two full business cycles that occurred over this time period saw significant short‐term changes in migration flows, although the economic downturn of 2001‐02 may indicate more fundamental changes in the migration system.

Credible Redistributive Policies and Migration across US States

Does worker mobility undermine governments ability to redistribute income? This paper analyzes the experience of US states in the recent decades. We build a tractable model where both migration decisions and redistribution policies are endogenous. We calibrate the model to match skill premium and worker productivity at the state level, as well as the size and skill composition of migration flows. The calibrated model is able to reproduce the large changes in skill composition as well as key qualitative relationships of labor flows and redistribution policies observed in the data. Our results suggest that regional differences in labor productivity are an important determinant of interstate migration. We use the calibrated model to compare the cross-section of redistributive policies with and without worker mobility. The main result of the paper is that interstate migration has induced substantial convergence in tax rates across US states, but no race to the bottom. Skill-biased in-migration has reduced the skill premium and the need for tax-based redistribution in the states that would have had the highest tax rates in the absence of mobility.

Credible redistributive policies and migration across U.S. states

We ask whether worker mobility has undermined the ability of U.S. states to redistribute income. We build a tractable model where both migration decisions and redistribution policies are jointly determined. Our model features a large number of heterogeneous regions and skilled and unskilled workers with idiosyncratic migration costs. The calibrated model is able to account for the main features of interstate migration, as well as some qualitative features of the cross-sectional distribution of redistributive policies. We conduct a counterfactual experiment in order to isolate the effect of worker mobility on state-level redistributive policies. We find that migration has induced substantial convergence in tax rates across U.S. states, but no race to the bottom. Interestingly, the degree of convergence has been much lower for transfers due to an offsetting tax-base effect.

The effect of income taxes on interstate migration: an analysis by age and race

The topic of interstate migration and the effects of taxes on migration have been extensively studied. Prior research has examined not only many possible determinants of migration but also the migrations of various populations, including the elderly, African-Americans, and the college educated. The present study will attempt to differentiate itself from this prior research by looking at the effect of income taxes on the interstate migration of both whites and African-Americans at various ages. Another distinguishing feature of the present study is that it will use data from the NLSY-Geocode, a data set not used previously for this type of study. Results of the present study are similar to the results of prior works; income taxes have an effect on migration for most races and age groups. Individuals move from states with high income taxes to states with low income taxes; these results corroborate the results obtained from the use of aggregate, state-level data. In addition, results of the present study suggest that non-economic factors, such as ties to a particular state and changes in employment status, are also important factors in an individual’s migration decision.

Distance and intrastate college student migration

Most studies of student migration focus on interstate migration of college students, largely because the aggregate data typically used are limited in geographic specificity to states. However, interstate migration is only a small part of the total student migration. Public institutions generally get most of their students from within their state; for example, 88 percent of first-time freshmen who enrolled in University System of Georgia institutions in 2002 graduated from Georgia schools. Such intrastate migration is seldom considered. This paper examines intrastate college student migration, using data for Georgia. Aside from such traditional measures of benefits and costs like tuition, financial aid, and school quality, a crucial explanatory variable in our analysis is the distance from a student's home to the different Georgia state institutions. Our empirical results indicate that student intrastate migration is strongly discouraged by greater distance, but with effects that differ across types of higher education institutions.

Visualizing Migration Flows Using Kriskograms

This paper describes a new approach called kriskogram to visualizing migration flows. To create a kriskogram, geographical units are projected as a set of points on a straight line segment called a location line. The migration flow between two points on the location line is represented using a half-circle drawn from the origin to the destination in a clockwise direction. Translucent symbols and a classification scheme can be used to make a kriskogram more effective. We demonstrate this method using a set of interstate migration data of four time periods for the conterminous United States.

Interstate migration, spatial assimilation, and the incorporation of US immigrants

AbstractThe recent trend of immigrant geographical diffusion in the United States has increased the relevance of a detailed understanding of the consequences of secondary migration for immigrant families, and a consideration of what is to be learned about immigrant incorporation from their patterns of domestic migration. In this paper, a regional variant of the spatial assimilation model is tested using longitudinal data on immigrant economic well‐being. The results of this research indicate that, like their native counterparts, immigrants benefit, both in terms of employment and earnings, from making interstate moves. Consistent with the spatial assimilation model, immigrants migrating to states with smaller relative foreign‐born populations see additional gains, with higher‐skilled and better‐acculturated immigrants enjoying the greatest returns. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Immigrant redistribution and life course trigger events: Evidence from US interstate migration

Our focus in this paper is on the impact of life course trigger events demonstrates that the life course theoretical perspective provides relevant explanations for immigrant interstate relocation decisions in the United States (US). Utilizing longitudinal individual- and family-level migration, human capital, and life course transition data from the 1996-1999 and 2001-2003 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation, integrated with state economic conditions and immigrant co-ethnic population concentration data, we apply a discrete-time event history approach to estimate departure relocation decision models for immigrants. The results provide evidence that family life course trigger events exert independent and more robust effects on the redistribution of immigrants than alternative individual and family-level human capital explanations.

Merit-Based Student Aid and Freshman Interstate College Migration: Testing a Dynamic Model of Policy Change

This study examines how state merit-based scholarships individually and simultaneously with prepaid tuition plans influence the interstate migration of college-bound freshmen. State freshman migration percentages were examined over a 10-year period. Results of an interrupted time-series model suggested that students generally respond to merit-based tuition aid in accordance with our initial prediction based on factors influencing student choice in attending postsecondary institutions. More specifically, many students choose to attend an in-state college in order to be eligible for state merit-based scholarships. Moreover, for home states that adopted both merit-based scholarships and prepaid tuition contracts, student out-migration was further reduced over time.

Modeling network autocorrelation within migration flows by eigenvector spatial filtering

Although the assumption of independence among interaction flows frequently is engaged in spatial interaction modeling, in many circumstances it leads to misspecified models and incorrect inferences. An informed approach is to explicitly incorporate an assumed relationship structure among the interaction flows, and to explicitly model the network autocorrelation. This paper illustrates such an approach in the context of U.S. interstate migration flows. Behavioral assumptions, similar to those of the intervening opportunities or the competing destinations concepts, exemplify how to specify network flows that are related to particular origin–destination combinations. The stepwise incorporation of eigenvectors, which are extracted from a network link matrix, captures the network autocorrelation in a Poisson regression model specification context. Spatial autocorrelation in Poisson regression is measured by the test statistic of Jacqmin-Gadda et al. (Stat Med 16(11):1283–1297, 1997). Results show that estimated regression parameters in the spatial filtering interaction model become more intuitively interpretable.

Demographic variation in housing cost adjustments with US family migration

AbstractThis paper examines the demographic variation in housing‐cost adjustment associated with family migration in the United States. The American population continues to migrate away from very large metropolitan areas down the urban hierarchy towards smaller metropolitan and micropolitan areas, an exodus that is frequently attributed to the push effects of diseconomies and congestion, increasing presence of foreign‐born population, and housing affordability problems, particularly in the large gateway cities. Yet, there is no empirical study of the housing‐cost adjustments associated with migration. This study addresses this gap by empirically assessing whether migration is associated with housing affordability adjustments, whether migrating families increase or decrease their housing costs, whether demographic variations occur in these adjustments, and whether there are significant differences in the geographies of housing‐cost adjustments among migrant families. These questions are addressed using the Census 2000 county‐to‐county migration flows merged with Census measures, and the 2000 Public Use Micro‐Sample 5% National file. The results indicate significant changes in housing costs associated with migration, and interstate migration in particular. On average, the direction of migration is to more affordable places. Families migrating from the traditional gateway cities with a relatively high percentage of foreign‐born populations are the most likely to make enormous shifts in affordability. However, these moves do not correspond neatly with regional white‐flight theory. Hispanics are far more likely to decrease housing costs with migration, as are non‐citizens and naturalised citizens. This research makes an important contribution to debates within the family migration literature, including conjectures of regional white flight and gendered theories of migration. Family migration towards greater housing affordability appears strategic and embedded in larger issues of family work–life balance. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Family life course transitions and the economic consequences of internal migration

AbstractDo family life course and migration events combine to improve or hurt family economic well‐being? The interaction effects of family life course events (i.e. became married, had a child, became separated/divorced) with migration are seldom conceptualised and measured in research on the economic well‐being of families. The more usual focus of the migration literature is on family and household structure rather than on family life course processes. Based on life course transition theory and longitudinal population survey data for the 1996–1999 and 2001–2003 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation, we utilise random coefficients models in an event‐history framework to provide new evidence on how before‐ and after‐migration life course events affect post‐migration family employment, family income and family poverty, for inter‐ and intra‐state migrants. The results show that, net the effect of factors selecting families and individuals to migrate, both inter‐ and intra‐state migration have negative impacts on family employment, poverty levels and income levels, but interstate migrants experience positive income growth. Separation and divorce markedly intensify the negative effects, but becoming married consistently interacts with migration to improve family economic well‐being. The causal order of family life course events and migration matters, with childbirth and separation/divorce after migration being particularly harmful to family economic well‐being. These effects are not mediated by state economic conditions. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.