Interregional Flows Research Articles

Detecting geographical patterns in the EU’s interregional flows: A multilayer hierarchical approach

This paper develops a multilayer statistical model to examine geographical patterns of different types of interregional flows within the European Union (EU). The results first reveal the success story of the EU regarding the goal of territorial cohesion in the flow of people. Next, they capture a differential level of each type of interregional flows contribution to the overall market, where flows of capital prevail and knowledge flows lag. The analysis also reveals a diversified degree of cohesion in the interregional flows market describing Germany, the United Kingdom, the “blue banana” regions, the Central and West Europe’s coastal regions, and the East Europe’s regions. Although the EU’s path to regional development looks in the right direction, there is evidence that “borders still matter”, equipping economic geographers and policymakers with an instrumented approach for modeling and evaluating the integration of spatial economies.

Intra- and interregional flows of business angel investment: mapping the winners and losers across UK regions and core urban economies

ABSTRACT Hitherto, the literature has largely overlooked the important role business angel finance plays in shaping different regional economies. Using a novel UK dataset, this paper calculates interregional inflows and outflows of business angel investment to identify the net winners and losers in terms of both the number of deals and the cash value of investment flows. We establish that only three regions were net beneficiaries while the other 11 UK regions and cities examined were net losers. The reduction in ‘home bias’ in angel investments may undermine the efficacy of policies aimed at stimulating localised investment and calls for greater demand stimulation policies to help alleviate the problem of ‘thin’ regional markets.

Interregional Flows of Embodied Carbon Storage Associated with Land-Use Change in China

With the continuous expansion of regional trade, interregional teleconnections have an increasingly pronounced impact on the changes in carbon storage caused by land use in China. Current research in this area remains remarkably limited, however. This study employs land-use data, carbon density data, and a multiregional input–output model to precisely quantify the embodied flow and spatial patterns of land-use carbon storage in China. We found that the carbon storage embodied in interprovincial trade in China accounts for 34.9 percent of total carbon storage, with cropland (44.9 percent) and woodland (43.6 percent) representing the highest proportions within their land-use categories. Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, and Tibet were found to be the most externally driven in terms of land-use-related carbon storage, with outflows exceeding 2,000 Tg C. Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai, on the other hand, were shown to consume up to 90 percent of land-use-related carbon storage inflows, showcasing the strongest external dependence. Additionally, Hunan (1,300.5 Tg C), Hubei (863.4 Tg C), Henan (1,534.6 Tg C), and Shanxi (2,223.6 Tg C) are the provinces where changes in land-use carbon storage are most significant, exerting the greatest influence on changes in China’s total carbon storage. China’s international export of land-use-related embodied carbon storage decreased by 3,964.7 Tg C during the study period, with woodland (1,516.8 Tg C) and grassland (1,505.7 Tg C) being the primary declining land types. Interestingly, as land utilization efficiency continues to rise, over half of the provinces have seen an increase in export trade value, while their corresponding embodied carbon storage has declined. The findings not only unveil the complex dynamics and spatial distribution at work in China’s embodied land-use-related carbon storage but also provide practical insights and directions for achieving carbon neutrality goals.

Social Networks and Brexit: Evidence from a Trade Shock

Regional exposure to Chinese import competition has often been linked to support for the Leave option in the 2016 UK EU membership referendum. Looking at 143 harmonised International Territorial Level 3 (ITL3) regions covering England and Wales, and using data on the density of online social ties between them, I show that regional support for leaving the EU was also associated with exposure in socially connected regions. I first delineate 18 commuting zones based on interregional flows over three Census years. For each region, I then construct a measure of own exposure to Chinese import competition and a measure of exposure in a set of social neighbours located outside its commuting zone. Exploiting variation within commuting zones, and using an instrumental variable approach, I find that the two measures have comparable positive effects on the regional share of the Leave vote. In a series of checks, I do not find evidence that the effect of social neighbours’ exposure is driven by an economic channel or a relationship between import competition and social ties. I also corroborate the regional results using survey data on vote choice. I interpret these findings as indicative of social spillovers between local labour markets: information flows from social neighbours are a likely channel behind the estimated spillover effects on voting outcomes.

Молодежная миграция в Горном Дагестане как индикатор устойчивого развития территории

Introduction. Identification of the specifics of the course of youth migration in the most problematic mountainous regions of Dagestan. Methods. Comparative geographical, statistical, descriptive-analytical, cartographic research methods were used in the course of the study. Results and discussion. The number of young people in Dagestan has been declining in recent years, which indicates an increase in unfavorable trends in demographic development. The share of young people in the migration loss of the population of Dagestan is more than 42%. The most significant indicators of youth decline are observed in the southern regions with a predominance of Lezgins, Rutulians, Tsakhurs, as well as the Lak and Akushinsky districts, dominated by Lak. This trend is somewhat weaker in the areas of predominant residence of Avars. Magaramkent (more than 12%), Derbent, Akushinsky, Akhtyn (more than 9%) districts are leading in terms of the rate of reduction of the number of young population. The migration decline of young people is typical for all mountain settlements, but the intensity of this process varies by region, one of the provoking factors is inaccessibility. According to the direction of migration flows of young people, interregional outflow prevails (especially in the Rutul and Tabasaran districts). In a significant part of mountain municipalities, the importance of intra-regional youth migrations is high (Agulsky, Dakhdaevsky, Dokuzparinsky districts are in the lead), while the urban area receives a small replenishment. A very insignificant positive balance can be traced in international migration (the Lak and Magaramkent districts are distinguished). Conclusions. The mountainous territories of Dagestan are losing young people, which is one of the most important factors provoking a decrease in the sustainability of socio-economic development. The unfavorable geographical position of settlements and the peculiarities of the ethnic composition of the population are among the determinants that increase the outflow of young people from mountainous areas. The dominance of interregional youth decline in inter-regional flows is traced. Less significant intraregional flows are directed to the plains and coastal more dynamically developing territories.

Assessment of supply-demand relationships considering the interregional flow of ecosystem services.

Accurate assessment of ecosystem service (ES) supply, demand, and flow is essential for identifying and enhancing the ES supply-demand relationship and promoting regional sustainable development. Based on the InVEST model, supply-demand ratio, coupling coordination analysis, breakpoint and field strength model, and GIS spatial analysis method, we evaluated the supply and demand of water yield, food supply, carbon storage, and soil conservation service in the Loess Plateau in 2000 and 2020 and analyzed the supply-demand relationship before and after considering the interregional ecosystem service flow (ESF). The results showed that (1) from 2000 to 2020, the supply and demand of the four types of ESs in the Loess Plateau increased. Before considering ESF, the surplus degree in water yield, food supply, and soil conservation increased, and carbon storage decreased. In most counties, the coupling coordination between the supply and demand of the soil conservation is mostly extreme incoordination and moderate incoordination, and other types of ESs are mostly reluctant coordination and moderate incoordination. The degree of incoordination in water yield and soil conservation have eased, while food supply and carbon storage have strengthened. For the comprehensive supply-demand relationship of ES, the degree of surplus and coordination increased, with most counties were in a state of surplus and coordination. (2) Water yield and soil conservation services flow primarily to the western and northwestern portions of the Loess Plateau, with a decrease in the number of flow paths but an increase in the total flow rate for the former and a decrease in flow paths and total flow rate for the latter. The food supply and carbon storage flow in all directions and the total flow rate increases, with a significant increase in the number of flow paths for carbon storage. (3) After considering ESF, the supply-demand relationship of each type of ES and the comprehensive ES supply-demand relationship are changed, in which the degree of surplus and coordination of deficit counties are significantly improved, and some counties even become surplus or improve the level of coordination. After considering ESF, the supply-demand ratio changes even more relative to the degree of coupling coordination. This study is of great significance for identifying the cross-regional transfer pattern of ES, understanding in-depth the dynamic supply-demand relationship of ES, and mitigating the mismatch between supply and demand of ES. It provides a scientific and objective theoretical basis for promoting regional sustainable development.

Analysis of the evolution and drivers of carbon inequality based on a human well-being equity perspective

Regional development imbalances lead to the geographic separation of producers and consumers in interregional trade, thus resulting in an unequal distribution of carbon emissions (CE) and human well-being (HWB). Few studies have analyzed the long-term dynamic evolution and driving factors of interregional carbon inequality from the perspective of HWB equity. This study calculates the changes in embodied CE and HWB and their interregional flows and changes in carbon inequality in 2007, 2012, and 2017 using a multiregional input‒output (MRIO) model, and analyzes the drivers of interregional CE/HWB transfer, and then makes policy implications. The results indicate that carbon inequality in China shows a worsening trend because of the mismatch between the change in CE transfers in carbon-intensive sectors and the change in HWB transfers in economic and social capital. At the national level, CE intensity, HWB intensity, production structure, and per capita consumption have the most significant effects on embodied CE and embodied HWB. The direction of the factor drivers affecting interregional net carbon emissions (NCE) and net human well-being (NWB) transfer depends largely on the resource endowment and the extent of the effects of the different drivers and development status of two regions. This study provides a new perspective for analyzing the evolution of carbon inequality in China and provides important insights for reducing carbon inequality and realizing carbon equity.

Women on the move for science, technology, engineering and mathematics: Gender selectivity in higher education student migration

AbstractDespite the gendered rebalancing of enrolments in higher education (HE) in the West, the underrepresentation of women in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) disciplines persists. Gendered selectivity of field of study influences higher education student migration (HESM) and in turn sheds light on HE participation. Framed by gender intersectionality theories both in HE studies and migration scholarship, this paper uses innovative data to analyse the intersectional effect of gender and field of study on HESM in Canada. Based on Statistics Canada's postsecondary student information system for the 2019/20 academic year, Canadian interregional flow matrixes structured by gender, field and level of study are constructed and analysed. The results show compelling evidence of the influence of gendered differences in HESM when intersected with field and level of study. Notably, women pursuing STEM studies migrate significantly more than any other grouping (i.e. gender, field and level of study groupings). The paper concludes with a discussion of policy implications for the influence of HESM on community demographic make‐up and local labour markets, as well as future research including the need to understand gendered dimensions of migration intentions and motivations.

Модель стратегического управления субъектами Уральского федерального округа РФ в контексте межрегиональной интеграции

The authors of the article conducted a study of trends in regional integration in the Russian Federation in the context of transformation processes and globalization changes in the world. The subject of the work is the trends in the regionalization of integration processes in the Russian Federation, taking into account the transformational external environment. In the context of the topic, the authors tried to show current trends in the interregional integration agenda using the example of the Ural Federal District of the Russian Federation in the context of strategic management of regional integration processes. The article proposes a methodological approach to the strategic management of socio-economic development of regions. The applicable research methods in the article were the method of systematization and generalization, as well as the method of content analysis. The proposed methodological approach to the strategic management of regional integration of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation allows us to develop an effective system of methods for making management decisions. Investigating the category of integration, the authors noted that it is closely related to the category of space, and also concluded that the more intense and varied the interaction between agents belonging to different territorial units, the higher the degree of integration. The socio-economic consequences of competition between the constituent entities of the Russian Federation for resources are of particular interest today in light of the extreme differentiation of regions and the growing gap between them. The study identified industries in the constituent entities of the Ural Federal District where regional integration is most actively observed. The authors of the article also found that interaction between regions is carried out through the transfer of functions in the field of housing policy, tourism, services and retail trade. The article identifies the main trends in regional integration in the areas of various types of interregional flows: imports and exports, migration, information, investments, and also evaluates the effects of regional integration.

A dynamic multi-region MFD model for ride-sourcing with ridesplitting

Dynamic network-level models directly addressing ride-sourcing services can support the development of efficient strategies for both congestion alleviation and promotion of more sustainable mobility. Recent developments presented models focusing on ride-hailing (solo rides) and traditional ride-sharing, but no work addressed ridesplitting (a type of ride-sourcing service with shared rides) in dynamic contexts. Here, we sought to develop a dynamic aggregated traffic network model capable of representing ride-sourcing services and background traffic in a macroscopic multi-region urban network. We combined the Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD) with detailed state-space and transition descriptions of background traffic and ride-sourcing vehicles in their activities to formulate mass conservation equations. Accumulation-based MFD models might experience additional errors due to the variation profile of trip lengths, e.g., when vehicles cruise for passengers. We integrate the so-called M-model that utilizes the total remaining distance to capture dynamics of regional and inter-regional flows and accumulations for different vehicle (private or ride-sourcing) states. This aggregated model is capable to reproduce the dynamics of complex systems without using resource-expensive simulations. We also show that the model can accurately forecast the vehicles’ conditions in near-future predictions (e.g., 30 min ahead). Later, a comparison with benchmark models shows lower errors in the proposed model in all states. Finally, we evaluate the model’s robustness to noises in its inputs, and forecast errors remain below 15% even where inputs are 20% off the actual values for ride-sourcing vehicles. The development of this model prepares the path for developing real-time feedback-based management policies such as priority-based perimeter control or repositioning strategies for idle ride-sourcing vehicles and developing regulations over ride-sourcing in congested areas.

The impact of embodied land flow in interregional trade on carbon emissions in China

The interregional flow of land embodied in remote linkages exerts a significant impact on land use and transfer of carbon emissions from land use patterns among regions, underscoring the importance of investigating this process for sustainable land utilization. This study quantifies the embodied land flow and its impact on carbon emissions in China, and further clarifies its characteristics by constructing the contribution and dependency index. The results show that more economically developed regions occupy land in less developed regions through embodied land flow. The flow of various land types is heterogeneous across regions, reflecting disparities in regional endowments. The developed coastal provinces of Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai all transfer more than 10 million tons of carbon emissions to other regions. The average levels of contributions to and dependence on embodied land flow in Chinese provinces increased from 20.51% to 23.13% in 2012 to 27.14% and 27.23% in 2017, respectively. This suggests that interregional land system linkages have strengthened and land supply and demand have intensified. Furthermore, the embodied land flow and its associated transfer of carbon emissions from land use can be assessed to ascertain the entities responsible for land consumption and carbon emissions. This study underscores the significance of examining the interplay between land use and carbon emissions in shaping sustainable development pathways.

A Linear-Parameter-Varying Formulation for Model Predictive Perimeter Control in Multi-Region MFD Urban Networks

An alternative approach for real-time network-wide traffic control in cities that has recently gained attention is perimeter flow control. Many studies have shown that this method is more efficient than state-of-the-art adaptive signal control strategies for heterogeneously congested urban networks. The basic concept of such an approach is to partition heterogeneous cities into a small number of homogeneous regions (zones) and apply perimeter control to the interregional flows along the boundaries between regions. The transferring flows are controlled at the traffic intersections located at the borders between regions so as to distribute the congestion in an optimal way and minimize the total delay of the system. The focus of current work is the mathematical formulation of the original nonlinear problem in a linear parameter-varying (LPV) form so that optimal control can be applied in a (rolling horizon) model predictive concept. This work presents the mathematical analysis of the optimal control problem as well as the approximations and simplifications that are assumed in order to derive the formulation of a linear optimization problem. Numerical simulation results for the case of a macroscopic environment (plant) are presented in order to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approach. Results for the closed-loop model predictive control scheme are presented for the nonlinear case, which is used as “benchmark,” as well as the linear case. Furthermore, the developed scheme is applied to a large-scale microsimulation of a European city with more than 500 signalized intersections in order to better investigate its applicability to real-life conditions. The simulation experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the scheme compared with fixed-time control because all of the performance indicators are significantly improved. Funding: This work was supported by Dit4Tram “Distributed Intelligence & Technology for Traffic & Mobility Management” project from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under [Grant agreement 953783].

Quantifying Interregional Flows of Ecosystem Services to Enhance Water Security in the Yellow River Basin, China

Ecosystem services (ES) have complex flow dynamics that operate across distances. However, ES assessments have focused more on their supply. Few studies consider the impacts of interregional flows on ES provision and the spatial and temporal changes of interregional flows are little known. Here, we quantified interregional flows and analyzed their variations by evaluating the interregional dependency of four water-related ES (water yield, flood mitigation, water purification, and soil retention) in the Yellow River Basin, China. The results showed that about one-third of the basin area had 51.3%–98.9% of the ES sourced from interregional flows, and these areas increased by 2.6%–11.9% during 2000–2015. Generally, the upstream regions with contributions of 64.0%–79.7% of water yield, 93.2%–96.9% of flood mitigation, 89.0%–95.3% of water purification, and 53.7%–97.4% of soil retention played an important role in sustaining the human well-being in downstream regions. Our approach offers a reference for building a telecoupled decision-making for other regions based on interregional flows. Moreover, the results of this study provide insights into interregional dependency on and responsibility for the transboundary ES impacts, and can help in sustainable development of watersheds by achieving environmental equality through guiding transboundary management.

Tracing toxic chemical releases embodied in U.S. interstate trade and their unequal distribution

Toxic chemicals have severe impacts on ecosystem, climate change and human health, and the current toxic releases are inequitably distributed across regions. Investigating the toxic release embodied in final demand by states and income groups can reveal the responsibility transfer of different entities. In this paper, we extended the U.S. multi-regional input–output (MRIO) model with toxic chemical release data in 2017 to conduct the production- and consumption-based accounting of toxic release by each state, and the inter-regional transfer of embodied toxic release between states. In addition, this paper analyzed how the toxic releases and inter-state transfer of embodied toxic release have been driven by income groups across states. The results showed that the toxic release from production was highly concentrated on the central states and the Great Lakes Region, while the consumption-based accounting of toxic release was more equally distributed across regions in the US. The non-metallic and metallic products manufacturing sectors were the most important sectors for most states from both production and consumption-based perspectives and were also the most essential sectors for interregional flows of embodied toxic release from Great Lake Region to Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Our results also showed that the largest portion (41.88%) of embodied toxic releases were triggered by households’ final demand, and that the consumption of the richest 35% of households contributed to more than 50% of the total toxic chemical releases triggered by total final demand of all households.

Pollution exacerbates interregional flows of virtual scarce water driven by energy demand in China

Existing studies on the virtual scarce water flows within the water-energy context focus on water quantity while largely ignoring water quality. This study improves the quantification method of scarce water uses by considering both blue water (representing water quantity) and grey water (indicating water quality). Based on a scarce-water extended multi-regional input–output model, we investigate the virtual scarce water flows driven by energy demand across 31 Chinese regions in 2012 and 2017. The results show that considering water quality provides new insights into the patterns of interregional flows of virtual scarce water driven by energy demand. The virtual integrated scarce water (VISW) flows, which consider both water quantity and quality, are 5 times the volume of virtual quantity-based scarce water (VQSW) flows. Moreover, certain regions (e.g., Hebei) are recognized as net VISW exporters, but are net importers in terms of VQSW. There are significant differences in the critical interregional pairs identified based on net VISW flows (e.g., Shandong–Zhejiang, and Shandong-Guangdong) and net VQSW flows (e.g., Heilongjiang-Guangdong, and Liaoning–Shaanxi). To reduce water scarcity based on the combined effect of both quantity and quality, the critical VISW interregional pairs should enhance cooperation through compensation payments and interregional technology transfer. This study highlights the importance of water quality in the assessment of virtual scarce water uses. Employing virtual scarce water as a policy tool to mitigate water scarcity might fail without the consideration of water quality.

The Impact of Transportation Cost on Inventor Mobility and Knowledge Spillovers

We contribute to the understanding of the microfoundations of regional competitive advantage by investigating the flows of human capital and knowledge when the transportation costs across regions are reduced by newly launched airline routes. We construct a dataset of interregional flows of human capital and knowledge between dyads of 362 U.S. mainland MSAs using the U.S. patent and inventor data to the U.S. airline data, from 1990 to 2014. To minimize the endogeneity concerns, we used two-stage linear squares (2SLS) estimation. The results show that the regions experience lower outmigration of inventors and are more active in technological innovation (e.g., the number of patents, the number of patenting firms). However, once we classify the regions as “core” or “periphery” on the basis of their patenting activities, we find that the technologically advanced core gains from lower transportation costs more than the technologically lagging periphery, which is in line with the agglomeration mechanism.

Interregional flows of virtual cropland within China

Cropland is an essential resource for agricultural system and greatly impacts agricultural sustainability. Cropland can be embodied in the goods and transferred among regions. Managing cropland as a virtual resource, similar with virtual water strategy, is an effective measure to achieve sustainability. Therefore, it is of significance for policymakers to understand how virtual cropland transfers in the economic society. This study employed a Multi-Regional Input-Output model with high resolution in the agriculture sectors (nine categories of crops) to examine the interregional flows of virtual cropland within China in 2015. The results show that Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Jilin contributed the most virtual cropland, while Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shandong were the largest receivers. The largest flow was from Heilongjiang to Guangdong embodied in cereals. Most of virtual flows were embodied in cereals, followed by sugar crops, other crops, legumes, and vegetables. Heilongjiang, Xinjiang, and Guangxi dominated the virtual outflows embodied in legumes, fruits, and oilseeds, respectively. This study is informative and implicative for policymakers to understand the spatial transfer pattern of virtual cropland, identify the key nodes, and design the effective measures to achieve sustainability.

Quantifying Carbon Sequestration Service Flow Associated with Human Activities Based on Network Model on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

The flow of ecosystem services between regions as a result of the mismatch of supply and demand has increasingly become a new research focus. Clarifying the spatial regularity of ecosystem service flow is of great significance for realizing regional sustainable development and improving human well-being. This study applied a network model to map the interregional carbon flow based on the supply and demand of carbon sequestration service, and the driving effect of various driving factors was further analyzed. The results showed that the demand for carbon sequestration service on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau increased steadily from 2000 to 2019, resulting in an increasingly significant difference between supply and demand with more than 20 million tons. In the carbon sequestration service flow network, the number of defined deficit nodes increased to 22 in 2010, but decreased to 21 in 2019. The interrupted edges continued to increase to 16, and the network density dropped to 0.022. The carbon sequestration service flow network on the northeastern parts of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was severely damaged. With the high-quality development of animal husbandry, the impact of grazing intensity on the difference between the supply and demand of carbon sequestration service has been weakened. When urbanization reached a certain level, the driving effects of urbanization and agricultural activities increased significantly. The study provided a reference for the use of network models to analyze ecosystem service flow, and provided a theoretical basis and data support for local ecological management decisions.

From the Region Attracting to the Region Pushing Out the Population (on the Example of the Silesian Voivodeship)

Abstract Subject and purpose of work: The subject of the research is the Silesian Voivodeship, identified with the region which, almost until the end of the 20th century, was characterized by a positive balance of population migration in interregional flows. Since 1999, it has become a runoff area. The aim of the article is to present the size of the links in terms of permanent migration of the Silesian region population with other voivodeships and the resulting demographic losses that this region has suffered over 20 years. Materials and methods: The research method is reduced to the analysis of data on the migration of people to and from the Silesian region in 1999-2018 with the use of statistical methods. The basic source of data that formed the basis for the analysis of inter-voivodeship population flows were the numbers included in the Demographic Yearbooks 2000-2019. Results: The demographic processes taking place over 20 years caused a decrease in the region’s population by 251,934, of which 60,956 were inter-voivodeship flows, 97,059 for a negative increase, 93,919 for a negative foreign balance. Conclusions: From the analysis of population flows between the Silesian region and the rest of the country, the following correlations can be seen: – in the analyzed period of research, the attractiveness of settlement in the Silesian region decreased, – the Silesian region showed the strongest migration ties with its immediate surroundings, which would be in line with Ravenstein’s law, – the ties between the population of the Silesian region and voivodeships with a higher level of development, especially in the outflow, are tightening, and it is weakening with underdeveloped regions, – the migration efficiency of the population of the Silesia region was the lower, the higher level of development was represented by a given group of voivodeships.

A multi-level assessment of changes in stakeholder constellations, interest and influence on ecosystem services under different landscape scenarios in southwestern Ethiopia

Growing global interconnections facilitate inter-regional flows of ecosystem services (ES). Several studies have focused on the opportunities, risks, and governance of telecoupled ES. However, considerable theoretical, methodological, and empirical gaps exist regarding how future demand for ES will shape trajectories of land use change, the bundles of ecosystem services and related livelihoods provided by future landscapes. This paper explores how multi-level stakeholder constellations, interests, and influence on ES change with a shift in the landscape from the current landscape to alternative future scenario landscapes. We integrated three methodological concepts: space-for-time substitution, scenario planning, and multi-level stakeholder interest and influence mapping. We focused on a smallholder farming landscape in southwestern Ethiopia that is characterized by, and sensitive to, rapid social-ecological change. We build on previous research that developed four plausible scenarios of landscape change for the landscape over the coming 20 years: the “Cash crops”, “Coffee investors”, “Biosphere reserve”, and “Food first” scenarios. We treated the current (focal) landscape as the baseline. Based on space-for-time substitution, we selected four existing landscapes nearby as proxies representing the types of changes described in the four scenarios. In both focal and scenario landscapes, we then identified stakeholders and interviewed them about their interest and influence related to ES (n = 122). Stakeholder constellations, interests, and influences on ES differed considerably between the focal and the scenario landscapes. Generally, a shift to the “Cash crops”, “Coffee investors”, and “Food first” scenarios increased the proportion of local, regional and global private organizations that engaged with the landscape. Many of these stakeholders sought to maximize profit through commercializing a few provisioning ES, often relying on regulatory and economic power to influence the landscape. In contrast, a change to the “Biosphere reserve” scenario increased the proportion of non-governmental organizations engaging with the landscape, and drew on stakeholders from multiple governance scales that were interested in diverse provisioning, cultural, regulating, and supporting ES. Our findings suggest that future landscapes imply divergent changes in stakeholder constellations and interests, both from proximate and remote locations. Landscape management should consider such possible changes in multi-level stakeholder constellations, interests, and influence. Our methodological approach enriches existing scenario narratives with empirically grounded social and governance layers that can improve proactive land management decisions.