Inter-model Differences Research Articles

Controls of the transient climate response to emissions by physical feedbacks, heat uptake and carbon cycling

The surface warming response to carbon emissions is diagnosed using a suite of Earth system models, 9 CMIP6 and 7 CMIP5, following an annual 1% rise in atmospheric CO2 over 140 years. This surface warming response defines a climate metric, the Transient Climate Response to cumulative carbon Emissions (TCRE), which is important in estimating how much carbon may be emitted to avoid dangerous climate. The processes controlling these intermodel differences in the TCRE are revealed by defining the TCRE in terms of a product of three dependences: the surface warming dependence on radiative forcing (including the effects of physical climate feedbacks and planetary heat uptake), the radiative forcing dependence on changes in atmospheric carbon and the airborne fraction. Intermodel differences in the TCRE are mainly controlled by the thermal response involving the surface warming dependence on radiative forcing, which arise through large differences in physical climate feedbacks that are only partly compensated by smaller differences in ocean heat uptake. The other contributions to the TCRE from the radiative forcing and carbon responses are of comparable importance to the contribution from the thermal response on timescales of 50 years and longer for our subset of CMIP5 models and 100 years and longer for our subset of CMIP6 models. Hence, providing tighter constraints on how much carbon may be emitted based on the TCRE requires providing tighter bounds for estimates of the physical climate feedbacks, particularly from clouds, as well as to a lesser extent for the other contributions from the rate of ocean heat uptake, and the terrestrial and ocean cycling of carbon.

Preoperative identification of clinicopathological prognostic factors for relapse-free survival in clinical N1 non-small cell lung cancer: a retrospective single center-based study

BackgroundGiven the difficulty in preoperatively diagnosing lymph node metastasis, patients with Stage I–III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are likely to be included in the clinical N1 (cN1) group. However, better treatment options might be selected through further stratification. This study aimed to identify preoperative clinicopathological prognostic and stratification factors for patients with cN1 NSCLC.MethodsThis retrospective study evaluated 60 patients who were diagnosed with NSCLC during 2004–2014. Clinical nodal status had been evaluated using routine chest computed tomography (CT) and/or positron emission tomography (PET). To avoid biasing the fluorodeoxyglucose uptake values based on inter-institution or inter-model differences, we used only two PET systems (one PET system and one PET/CT system). Relapse-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were the primary study outcomes. The maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) was calculated for each tumor and categorized as low or high based on the median value. Patient sex, age, histology, tumor size, and tumor markers were also assessed.ResultsPoor OS was associated with older age (P = 0.0159) and high SUVmax values (P = 0.0142). Poor RFS was associated with positive carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) expression (P = 0.0035) and high SUVmax values (P = 0.015). Multivariate analyses confirmed that poor OS was independently predicted by older age (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.751, confidence interval [CI]: 1.300–5.822; P = 0.0081) and high SUVmax values (HR = 5.121, 95% CI: 1.759–14.910; P = 0.0027). Furthermore, poor RFS was independently predicted by positive CEA expression (HR = 2.376, 95% CI: 1.056–5.348; P = 0.0366) and high SUVmax values (HR = 2.789, 95% CI: 1.042–7.458; P = 0.0410). The primary tumor’s SUVmax value was also an independent prognostic factor for both OS and RFS.ConclusionsFor patients with cN1 NSCLC, preoperative prognosis and stratification might be performed based on CEA expression, age, and the primary tumor’s SUVmax value. To enhance the prognostic value of the primary tumor’s SUVmax value, minimizing bias between facilities and models could lead to a more accurate prognostication.

The Diurnal Temperature Range in CMIP6 Models: Climatology, Variability, and Evolution

AbstractThe diurnal temperature range (DTR) is an identifiable and sensitive indicator of the synchronicity of changes in diurnal temperature extrema, but capturing DTR dynamics is challenging for climate models. This study investigates the climatology, variability, and changes of DTR in recent models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The results show that the CMIP6 models underestimate DTR climatology relative to observations. Most individual models overestimate December–February variability, particularly at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The models show substantially different changes over land surfaces and do not fully capture the observed spatiotemporal evolution of DTR. Large intermodel differences seem to be controlled by daily minimum air temperature. In the Northern Hemisphere, precipitation and cloud longwave and shortwave radiative effects appear to make important contributions to the intermodel discrepancies. Evaporative fraction is an important factor contributing to the intermodel differences in DTR during the summer in the Northern Hemisphere. In general, CMIP6 models have not improved their ability to simulate temporal DTR changes in a consistent way over the entire analysis period (1901–2005) relative to their CMIP5 counterparts. For periods of rapid DTR decline (e.g., 1951–80) CMIP6 models are typically better than the CMIP5 versions at simulating DTR, whereas for other periods CMIP6 models underperform their CMIP5 counterparts.

Influences of hydroxyl radicals (OH) on top-down estimates of the global and regional methane budgets

Abstract. The hydroxyl radical (OH), which is the dominant sink of methane (CH4), plays a key role in closing the global methane budget. Current top-down estimates of the global and regional CH4 budget using 3D models usually apply prescribed OH fields and attribute model–observation mismatches almost exclusively to CH4 emissions, leaving the uncertainties due to prescribed OH fields less quantified. Here, using a variational Bayesian inversion framework and the 3D chemical transport model LMDz, combined with 10 different OH fields derived from chemistry–climate models (Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative, or CCMI, experiment), we evaluate the influence of OH burden, spatial distribution, and temporal variations on the global and regional CH4 budget. The global tropospheric mean CH4-reaction-weighted [OH] ([OH]GM-CH4) ranges 10.3–16.3×105 molec cm−3 across 10 OH fields during the early 2000s, resulting in inversion-based global CH4 emissions between 518 and 757 Tg yr−1. The uncertainties in CH4 inversions induced by the different OH fields are similar to the CH4 emission range estimated by previous bottom-up syntheses and larger than the range reported by the top-down studies. The uncertainties in emissions induced by OH are largest over South America, corresponding to large inter-model differences of [OH] in this region. From the early to the late 2000s, the optimized CH4 emissions increased by 22±6 Tg yr−1 (17–30 Tg yr−1), of which ∼25 % (on average) offsets the 0.7 % (on average) increase in OH burden. If the CCMI models represent the OH trend properly over the 2000s, our results show that a higher increasing trend of CH4 emissions is needed to match the CH4 observations compared to the CH4 emission trend derived using constant OH. This study strengthens the importance of reaching a better representation of OH burden and of OH spatial and temporal distributions to reduce the uncertainties in the global and regional CH4 budgets.

Intermodel Spread in the Pattern Effect and Its Contribution to Climate Sensitivity in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models

AbstractRadiative feedbacks depend on the spatial patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) and thus can change over time as SST patterns evolve—the so-called pattern effect. This study investigates intermodel differences in the magnitude of the pattern effect and how these differences contribute to the spread in effective equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) within CMIP5 and CMIP6 models. Effective ECS in CMIP5 estimated from 150-yr-long abrupt4×CO2 simulations is on average 10% higher than that estimated from the early portion (first 50 years) of those simulations, which serves as an analog for historical warming; this difference is reduced to 7% on average in CMIP6. The (negative) net radiative feedback weakens over the course of the abrupt4×CO2 simulations in the vast majority of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, but this weakening is less dramatic on average in CMIP6. For both ensembles, the total variance in the effective ECS is found to be dominated by the spread in radiative response on fast time scales, rather than the spread in feedback changes. Using Green’s functions derived from two AGCMs shows that the spread in feedbacks on fast time scales may be primarily due to differences in atmospheric model physics, whereas the spread in feedback evolution is primarily governed by differences in SST patterns. Intermodel spread in feedback evolution is well explained by differences in the relative warming in the west Pacific warm-pool regions for the CMIP5 models, but this relation fails to explain differences across the CMIP6 models, suggesting that a stronger sensitivity of extratropical clouds to surface warming may also contribute to feedback changes in CMIP6.

The Extratropical Linear Step Response to Tropical Precipitation Anomalies and Its Use in Constraining Projected Circulation Changes under Climate Warming

AbstractRossby wave trains triggered by tropical convection strongly affect the atmospheric circulation in the extratropics. Using daily gridded observational and reanalysis data, we demonstrate that a technique based on linear response theory effectively captures the linear response in 250-hPa geopotential height anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere using examples of steplike changes in precipitation over selected tropical areas during boreal winter. Application of this method to six models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), using the same tropical forcing, reveals a large intermodel spread in the linear response associated with intermodel differences in Rossby waveguide structure. The technique is then applied to a projected tropicswide precipitation change in the HadGEM2-ES model during 2025–45 December–February, a period corresponding to a 2°C rise in the mean global temperature under the RCP8.5 scenario. The response is found to depend on whether the mean state underlying the technique is calculated using observations, the present-day simulation, or the future projection; indeed, the bias in extratropical response to tropical precipitation because of errors in the basic state is much larger than the projected change in extratropical circulation itself. We therefore propose the linear step response method as a semiempirical method of making near-term future projections of the extratropical circulation, which should assist in quantifying uncertainty in such projections.

Impact of Higher Spatial Atmospheric Resolution on Precipitation Extremes Over Land in Global Climate Models

AbstractFiner grids in global climate models could lead to an improvement in the simulation of precipitation extremes. We assess the influence on model performance of increasing spatial resolution by evaluating pairs of high‐ and low‐resolution forced atmospheric simulations from six global climate models (generally the latest CMIP6 version) on a common 1° × 1° grid. The differences in tuning between the lower and higher resolution versions are as limited as possible, which allows the influence of higher resolution to be assessed exclusively. We focus on the 1985–2014 climatology of annual extremes of daily precipitation over global land, and models are compared to observations from different sources (i.e., in situ‐based and satellite‐based) to enable consideration of observational uncertainty. Finally, we address regional features of model performance based on four indices characterizing different aspects of precipitation extremes. Our analysis highlights good agreement between models that precipitation extremes are more intense at higher resolution. We find that the spread among observations is substantial and can be as large as intermodel differences, which makes the quantitative evaluation of model performance difficult. However, consistently across the four precipitation extremes indices that we investigate, models often show lower skill at higher resolution compared to their corresponding lower resolution version. Our findings suggest that increasing spatial resolution alone is not sufficient to obtain a systematic improvement in the simulation of precipitation extremes, and other improvements (e.g., physics and tuning) may be required.

Summertime Temperature Variability Increases With Local Warming in Midlatitude Regions

AbstractClimate change presents risks both in terms of warming and increased variability that are heightened when compounded. It is thus notable that the simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) showing greater Northern midlatitude continental warming also show a greater increase in monthly average temperature variance, particularly in Europe. European variability increases with warming at a rate of 0.40°C2/°C (95% C.I. [0.28, 0.50]), with local warming rates explaining 71% of the intermodel difference in variability changes. Coupling between warming and variance increases the probability of high temperatures compared to a scenario where variance is stable. If warming were to reach 6°C, the risk of monthly average temperature exceeding a 30°C threshold is 4 times greater in the increased‐variance scenario. Despite the simple scaling across models suggesting some common origin, changes in model temperature and variance potentially involve a range of mechanisms whose contributions remain unclear.

Why do models perform differently on particulate matter over East Asia? A multi-model intercomparison study for MICS-Asia III

Abstract. This study compares the performance of 12 regional chemical transport models (CTMs) from the third phase of the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia III) on simulating the particulate matter (PM) over East Asia (EA) in 2010. The participating models include the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ; v4.7.1 and v5.0.2), the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System coupled with CMAQ (RAMS-CMAQ; v4.7.1 and v5.0.2), the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem; v3.6.1 and v3.7.1), Goddard Earth Observing System coupled with chemistry (GEOS-Chem), a non-hydrostatic model coupled with chemistry (NHM-Chem), the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (NAQPMS) and the NASA-Unified WRF (NU-WRF). This study investigates three model processes as the possible reasons for different model performances on PM. (1) Models perform very differently in the gas–particle conversion of sulfur (S) and oxidized nitrogen (N). The model differences in sulfur oxidation ratio (50 %) are of the same magnitude as that in SO42- concentrations. The gas–particle conversion is one of the main reasons for different model performances on fine mode PM. (2) Models without dust emission modules can perform well on PM10 at non-dust-affected sites but largely underestimate (up to 50 %) the PM10 concentrations at dust sites. The implementation of dust emission modules in the models has largely improved the model accuracies at dust sites (reduce model bias to −20 %). However, both the magnitude and distribution of dust pollution are not fully captured. (3) The amounts of modeled depositions vary among models by 75 %, 39 %, 21 % and 38 % for S wet, S dry, N wet and N dry depositions, respectively. Large inter-model differences are found in the washout ratios of wet deposition (at most 170 % in India) and dry deposition velocities (generally 0.3–2 cm s−1 differences over inland regions).

Comparisons and evaluation of aerosol burden and optical depth in CMIP5 simulations over East Asia

Aerosol plays an important role in the climate system by affecting the radiative and energy balances. Hence, in this paper, the spatial patterns of aerosol burden and aerosol optical properties (AOD) in four the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models over East Asia during 2001–2005 are compared to quantify inter-model differences and to evaluate AOD simulations against observations. The evaluation of AOD against Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite retrievals shows that CMIP5 models can reproduce the spatial pattern of MODIS AOD reasonably well. The mean AOD over eastern China shows that NorESM1-M underestimates MODIS AOD by 40%, due to the lack of emissions of some aerosol components, such as nitrate, biogenic aerosol, and non-desert mineral dust. In contrast to that, CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 overestimates annual mean of MODIS AOD over eastern China by 20%, partially caused by larger aerosol emissions and burden. Compared to MODIS AOD, GFDL-CM3 performs the best in simulating AOD in eastern China, because ammonium and nitrate are included in this model. The comparisons of CMIP5 and Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) AOD show similar results. In addition, the simulated AOD values are closer to AERONET AOD in Mongolia, China, Japan and Korea than that in India. The results also reveal that there are some inter-model differences of aerosol burden over East Asia, caused by the inter-model differences of aerosol emissions, wet scavenging, and transport. Over eastern and northwestern China and the west Pacific, the inter-model differences of anthropogenic aerosol burden and spatial variabilities are smaller than that of natural aerosol burden.

Evaluating fidelity of CT based 3D models for Zebrafish conductive hearing system

The zebrafish Weberian apparatus is an emerging model for human conductive hearing system. Their Weberian apparatus comprises minute bones and ligamentary links, and conducts sound pressure transmission from the gas bladder to inner ear through four pairs of Weberian ossicles along the vertebral column. We herein present a methodological study using MicroCT to image the Weberian apparatus for biomechanical and morphological analysis. The aim of this work is to evaluate computational models generated from multiple MicroCT scans with different parameters, to identify the most feasible scan combination for practical (minimized scan time) yet accurate (relative to highest resolution) biomechanical simulations. We segmented and created 3D models from CT scan image stacks at 4.64 μm, 5.05 μm, 9.30 μm and 13.08 μm voxel resolutions, respectively. Then, we used geometric morphometrics analysis to quantify inter-model shape differences, as well as a series of finite element modal and harmonic analyses to simulate auditory signal vibrations. Relative to the highest resolution and most accurate model, the Model 9.30 is closest in overall geometry and biomechanical behavior of all lower resolution models. The differences in resolution and quality of the CT substantially affect the segmentation and reconstruction process of the three-dimensional model of the ossicles, and the subsequent analyses. We conclude that scan voxel resolution is a key factor influencing outcomes of biomechanical simulations of delicate and minute structures, especially when studying the harmonic response of minute ossicles connected by ligaments using finite element modeling. Furthermore, contrast variations in CT images as determined by x-ray power and scan speed, also affect fidelity in 3D models and simulation outcomes.

Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems

Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of Arctic amplification. Here, we assessed the climatic impacts of low-end, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C global temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, on the warming of terrestrial ecosystems in northern high latitudes (NHL, above 60 °N including pan-Arctic tundra and boreal forests) under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b protocol. We analyzed the simulated changes of net primary productivity, vegetation biomass, and soil carbon stocks of eight ecosystem models that were forced by the projections of four global climate models and two atmospheric greenhouse gas pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). Our results showed that considerable impacts on ecosystem carbon budgets, particularly primary productivity and vegetation biomass, are very likely to occur in the NHL areas. The models agreed on increases in primary productivity and biomass accumulation, despite considerable inter-model and inter-scenario differences in the magnitudes of the responses. The inter-model variability highlighted the inadequacies of the present models, which fail to consider important components such as permafrost and wildfire. The simulated impacts were attributable primarily to the rapid temperature increases in the NHL and the greater sensitivity of northern vegetation to warming, which contrasted with the less pronounced responses of soil carbon stocks. The simulated increases of vegetation biomass by 30–60 Pg C in this century have implications for climate policy such as the Paris Agreement. Comparison between the results at two warming levels showed the effectiveness of emission reductions in ameliorating the impacts and revealed unavoidable impacts for which adaptation options are urgently needed in the NHL ecosystems.

Effects of Topography and Realistic Drag on the Southern Hemisphere Midlatitude Jet in a Dry Model

AbstractClimate models have substantial biases in the climatological latitude of the Southern Hemisphere eddy‐driven jet and the time scale of annular mode variability and disagree on the jet response to climate change. Zonally symmetric dry dynamical cores are often used for idealized modeling of the jet response to forcing and its sensitivity to model setup changes. The limits to which these models represent the key mechanisms that control the jet in complex models or the real world have not been systematically investigated. Here we show that substantial intermodel differences in jet latitude and strength can arise from differences in dynamical cores and resolved topography. Including topography and a more realistic surface drag in a dry model substantially alters the jet response to changes in drag strength. Using real‐world maps, enhanced drag over land shifts the jet poleward, whereas enhanced drag over the ocean leads to an equatorward shift. No universal relationship between annular mode time scale and forced response emerges in the dry model with topography. These results suggest that zonally symmetric models with Rayleigh drag lack important mechanisms that control the behavior of the midlatitude jet in coupled climate models. A dry model with topography and quadratic surface drag can fill this gap in the model hierarchy.

Emulating Earth system model temperatures with MESMER: from global mean temperature trajectories to grid-point-level realizations on land

Abstract. Earth system models (ESMs) are invaluable tools to study the climate system's response to specific greenhouse gas emission pathways. Large single-model initial-condition and multi-model ensembles are used to investigate the range of possible responses and serve as input to climate impact and integrated assessment models. Thereby, climate signal uncertainty is propagated along the uncertainty chain and its effect on interactions between humans and the Earth system can be quantified. However, generating both single-model initial-condition and multi-model ensembles is computationally expensive. In this study, we assess the feasibility of geographically explicit climate model emulation, i.e., of statistically producing large ensembles of land temperature field time series that closely resemble ESM runs at a negligible computational cost. For this purpose, we develop a modular emulation framework which consists of (i) a global mean temperature module, (ii) a local temperature response module, and (iii) a local residual temperature variability module. Based on this framework, MESMER, a Modular Earth System Model Emulator with spatially Resolved output, is built. We first show that to successfully mimic single-model initial-condition ensembles of yearly temperature from 1870 to 2100 on grid-point to regional scales with MESMER, it is sufficient to train on a single ESM run, but separate emulators need to be calibrated for individual ESMs given fundamental inter-model differences. We then emulate 40 climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to create a “superensemble”, i.e., a large ensemble which closely resembles a multi-model initial-condition ensemble. The thereby emerging ESM-specific emulator parameters provide essential insights on inter-model differences across a broad range of scales and characterize core properties of each ESM. Our results highlight that, for temperature at the spatiotemporal scales considered here, it is likely more advantageous to invest computational resources into generating multi-model ensembles rather than large single-model initial-condition ensembles. Such multi-model ensembles can be extended to superensembles with emulators like the one presented here.

Cybernetic Approach to Problem of Interaction Between Nature and Human Sosiety in Context of Unprecedented Climate Change

In this paper, from a cybernetic perspective, the human-nature interactions are considered in the context of modern climate change, unprecedented in its scale and rate caused by anthropogenic activity. The developed structure of the “climate-economy” cybernetic system is presented, the weaknesses of the global governance bodies are analysed, and the main causes of the uncertainties in assessing climate change and the economic damage caused by this change are discussed. It is noted that adaptation measures and strategies developed and implemented by governments of different countries and intergovernmental organizations do not eliminate the causes of global warming and, therefore, have limited capacities, since humans and nature can exist only under specified environmental conditions. Going beyond these conditions, due to climate change, can lead to a global biological catastrophe. Climate policy decisions are made under uncertainty due to the ambiguity of estimates of the future climate, which, in turn, is the result of an insufficiently adequate description of feedbacks in the climate system models. Using low-parametric models of the Earth's climate system, the influence of system’s feedbacks on tangible inter-model differences of climate change estimates obtained using modern climate models of a high degree of complexity is illustrated. Since the climate change adaptation measures proposed by experts are not the struggle with causes, but the fight with consequences, we see geoengineering as a radical adaptation strategy. In contrast to previous studies, we consider the problem of purposefully modifying climatic conditions, implemented by geoengineering methods, within the framework of optimal control theory with mathematical formalization of geoengineering objectives and methods for achieving them. In this paper, an example of the formulation and solution of the optimization problem for stabilizing the Earth’s climate through the injection of finely dispersed sulfate aerosol into the stratosphere is presented.

Future Reductions in Polar Cold Air Mass and Cold Air Outbreaks Revealed From Isentropic Analysis

AbstractThis study quantifies future changes in the polar cold air mass (PCAM) below a threshold potential temperature of 280 K and its horizontal fluxes, which are an indicator for the intensity of cold air outbreaks, by analyzing the outputs from five climate models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Under the business‐as‐usual scenario, the multimodel means of the wintertime total hemispheric PCAM decrease by 37% in the Northern Hemisphere and by 34% in the Southern Hemisphere by the end of the 21st century. The midlatitude equatorward PCAM fluxes are projected to decrease significantly by around 2050. This is primarily due to the reduction of the PCAM and to a lesser extent due to the weakening of the extratropical meridional circulation. Finally, intermodel differences in the total hemispheric PCAM reduction are shown to be linearly related to the climate sensitivity to the global mean surface air temperature.

Are contributions of emissions to ozone a matter of scale? – a study using MECO(n) (MESSy v2.50)

Abstract. Anthropogenic and natural emissions influence the tropospheric ozone budget, thereby affecting air quality and climate. To study the influence of different emission sources on the ozone budget, often source apportionment studies with a tagged tracer approach are performed. Studies investigating air quality issues usually rely on regional models with a fine spatial resolution, while studies focusing on climate-related questions often use coarsely resolved global models. It is well known that simulated ozone mixing ratios depend on the resolution of the model and the resolution of the emission inventory. Whether the contributions simulated using source apportionment approaches also depend on the model resolution, however, is still unclear. Therefore, this study attempts for the first time to analyse the impact of the model, the model resolution, and the emission inventory resolution on simulated ozone contributions using a diagnostic tagging method. The differences in the ozone contributions caused by these factors are compared with differences that arise from the usage of different emission inventories. To do so, we apply the MECO(n) (MESSy-fied ECHAM and COSMO models nested n times) model system which couples online a global chemistry-climate model with a regional chemistry-climate model equipped with a tagging scheme for source apportionment. The results of the global model (at 300 km horizontal resolution) are compared with the results of the regional model at 50 km (Europe) and 12 km (Germany) resolutions. Besides model-specific differences and biases that are discussed in detail, our results have important implications for other modelling studies and modellers applying source apportionment methods. First, contributions from anthropogenic emissions averaged over the continental scale are quite robust with respect to the model, model resolution, and emission inventory resolution. Second, differences on the regional scale caused by different models and model resolutions can be quite large, and regional models are indispensable for source apportionment studies on the subcontinental scale. Third, contributions from stratospheric ozone transported to the surface differ strongly between the models, mainly caused by differences in the efficiency of the vertical mixing. As stratospheric ozone plays an important role for ground level ozone, but the models show large differences in the amount of downward transported ozone, source apportionment methods should account for this source explicitly to better understand inter-model differences.

On the Superposition of Mean Advective and Eddy-Induced Transports in Global Ocean Heat and Salt Budgets

AbstractOcean thermal expansion is a large contributor to observed sea level rise, which is expected to continue into the future. However, large uncertainties exist in sea level projections among climate models, partially due to intermodel differences in ocean heat uptake and redistribution of buoyancy. Here, the mechanisms of vertical ocean heat and salt transport are investigated in quasi-steady-state model simulations using the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator Ocean Model (ACCESS-OM2). New insights into the net effect of key physical processes are gained within the superresidual transport (SRT) framework. In this framework, vertical tracer transport is dominated by downward fluxes associated with the large-scale ocean circulation and upward fluxes induced by mesoscale eddies, with two distinct physical regimes. In the upper ocean, where high-latitude water masses are formed by mixed layer processes, through cooling or salinification, the SRT counteracts those processes by transporting heat and salt downward. In contrast, in the ocean interior, the SRT opposes dianeutral diffusion via upward fluxes of heat and salt, with about 60% of the vertical heat transport occurring in the Southern Ocean. Overall, the SRT is largely responsible for removing newly formed water masses from the mixed layer into the ocean interior, where they are eroded by dianeutral diffusion. Unlike the classical advective–diffusive balance, dianeutral diffusion is bottom intensified above rough bottom topography, allowing an overturning cell to develop in alignment with recent theories. Implications are discussed for understanding the role of vertical tracer transport on the simulation of ocean climate and sea level.

Climate models disagree on the sign of total radiative feedback in the Arctic

Climate feedbacks have been found to strongly impact the observed amplified Arctic warming. However, Arctic amplification is modeled with a wide spread which partly arises from intermodel differences of the various feedbacks. To explain the spread in modeled Arctic warming, feedback uncertainties and their origins are investigated in 13 climate models in an experiment with abruptly quadrupled CO2. While intermodel differences in the cloud feedback, being strongest in the Tropics, have been found to determine the spread of global mean effective climate sensitivity, we find that in the Arctic the cloud feedback is not responsible for the spread of Arctic warming as its contribution is too small. Instead, the spread of Arctic warming is explained by differing estimates of surface albedo and Planck feedbacks which show the largest intermodel differences. Our results indicate that these uncertainties not only arise from different degrees of simulated Arctic warming but also are partly related to the large differences in initial sea ice cover and surface temperatures which contribute to the increased spread in estimated warming compared to lower latitudes. Further investigations of feedback dependencies to the base state are needed to constrain the impact of initial uncertainties and to obtain robust results. The most significant distinction between models is the sign of the total feedback parameter. While all models investigated here simulate a negative global mean total feedback, only half of them also show negative Arctic feedbacks which implies that Arctic local feedbacks alone suffice to stably adjust Arctic surface temperatures in response to a radiative perturbation. The other half exhibits positive total Arctic feedbacks indicating local runaway systems which need to be balanced by decreased meridional heat transports. Whether or not a model features such a behaviour depends upon the strength of the simulated positive surface albedo versus the negative Planck feedback.

ПРИРОДНЫЕ ПОЖАРЫ: ДАННЫЕ НАБЛЮДЕНИЙ И МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ

A review of the contemporary knowledge on natural fires (NF) and on contemporary approaches for their modelling is presented. The review is targeted to the implementation of NF models into the global Earth system models. In the last years, satellite retrievals are able to detect even small (with the size < 500 m) fires. Nonetheless, marked uncertainties of the estimates for the burned are and for the NF-associated release of different substances into the atmosphere still persist. For the most detailed satellite dataset GFED-4.1, the annual burned area is close to 5 mln km2 , including at least 2.9 Mkm2 due to NF themselves. This leads to the carbon release of ~2 PgC year into the atmosphere, mostly in the form of CO2.In the Russian territory, the annual burned area is close to 135 thnd km2 , and the annual carbon release into the atmosphere is equal to 0.12 PgC year. These estimates appear much larger the respective estimates reported in the Russian National Report for 1900-2015. NF Characteristics follow the interannual climate variability, including that in the El Niño years. Nevertheless, no significant trends are found at the global and subcontinental spatial scales based on the satellite data. Proxy data and modelling results exhibit a general increase of the NF activity during the preindustrial Holocene (including cold epochs) as well as an overall enhancement of this activity from cold stadials to warm interstadials in the Pleistocene. Currently the NF simulation modules are started to be implemented into the Earth system models. These modules take into account fire-affecting weather and/ or climate characteristics, the number of ignitions depending on lightning activity and population density (sometimes, depending on landuse type as well), fire suppression, amount and type of fuel for fires, and combustion completeness. A number of models is able to simulate even the simplified dynamics of individual fires. However, the limited contemporary knowledge on NF leads to the marked intermodel scatter even in the simulated climatology of the NF characteristics and in the simulated trend slopes of such characteristics. In particular, the intermodel differences in the 20th century variations in the simulated NF characteristics are mostly caused by the implemented assumptions on the landuse impact on NF dynamics. As a result, further development of the NF modules is needed.