Intercensal Period Research Articles

Emerging Patterns of migration streams in India: A State Level Analysis of 2011 Census

This article discusses changing patterns of migration in India using the data from the 2011 Census. In this study, the statistical (growth rate, percentage distribution) and cartographic methods have been used to analyse and map the changing patterns of migration across the states in India. It is found that in India, 37.5 percent of the population experienced spatial mobility in the 2011 Census which is higher than that of the 2001 Census (30.8 percent). The volume of migrants in the intercensal period (2001 to 2011) increased from 98.3 million to 161.4 million, an increase of over 64 percent. Overall, migration is more likely among the rural populations compared to the urban. However, substantial increase in the volume of urban-urban movements (14 million in 2001 to around 33 million in 2011) is the focus of the current study along with the rural-urban flows. For the first time in Indian Census history, the volume of urban-urban migration overtook the rural-urban migration volume in the last intercensal period. Creation of additional 2700 new Census Towns in the 2011 Census may be the real driving force for this staggering increase

The trade-off between equity and efficiency in population health gain: Making it real

Two fundamental goals of health systems are to maximise overall population health gain (referred to as efficiency) and to minimise unfair health inequalities (equity). Often there is a trade-off in maximising efficiency vis a vis equity and the relative weight given to one goal over the other is acknowledged to be essentially a value judgement. Health systems necessarily make those value judgements but in making them would benefit from relevant and accurate opportunity cost information. Unfortunately the development of practical tools to measure equity-efficiency trade-offs has lagged theoretical advances in this area. We address this gap by presenting a practical technique to reveal opportunity costs of equity (and efficiency) gains in decentralised population-based health systems, applying stochastic data envelopment analysis to ethnic-specific life expectancy (LE) changes for 20 New Zealand (NZ) District Health Boards for the inter-census period 2006–2013, thereby deriving a notional health frontier from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Four different ways to increase health equity emerge. These show that a trade-off between equity and efficiency does not always exist. In particular, improving both productive efficiency and allocative efficiency (up to its maximum) can also yield gains in equity through reductions in LE inequalities. However, in NZ's case, the opportunity cost (in sacrificed European life-years) of achieving gains in equity beyond the point of maximum productive and allocative efficiency is relatively high, even for quite small reductions in the LE gap between Māori and European populations. This high opportunity cost may explain why, despite governments' strong rhetorical commitment to equity, NZ's health gains have not strayed far from the path of maximising allocative efficiency. Nevertheless, this opportunity cost could be reduced significantly by measures which shift the health frontier outward, highlighting the importance of technical and organisational innovation as potential drivers of greater equity in health outcomes.

Adjusting Inter-censal Population Estimates for Germany 1987-2011: Approaches and Impact on Demographic Indicators

To derive reliable demographic indicators, appropriate data on population exposures are needed. Access to such data is becoming increasingly challenging in many countries due to factors such as the growing diversity of international migration patterns and the trend towards replacing full censuses with register-based censuses. Germany represents a particularly challenging case in this respect. Before Germany implemented its first register-based census in 2011, the country had not conducted a census for more than two decades. This census revealed that the number of people living in Germany in 2011 was about 1.5 million lower than the previous official post-censal population estimates for that year indicated. It is likely that a large portion of this discrepancy had existed for quite some time prior to 2011. Due to the long inter-censal period, the Federal Statistical Office of Germany decided not to produce backward-adjusted population estimates by single-year ages and sex for the whole period. The main aim of this paper is thus to make such detailed adjusted inter-censal population estimates available. While we have to take the peculiarities of the German case into account, our evaluation of different strategies offers important insights for developing a generalised methodology to adjust inter-censal population estimates for globalised countries that face challenges in ensuring the proper registration of migration events. We discuss four alternative approaches for deriving adjusted inter-censal population estimates. The results suggest that even for a rather complicated case like Germany, a relatively simple approach seems to work reasonably well. Finally, we demonstrate to what extent the implemented adjustments affect mortality indicators. The adjusted inter-censal population estimates for Germany and its federal states are provided in the online data appendix.

Демографічна структура української етнічної групи у Чеській Республіці (1991–2011 роки).

The article deals with the demographic structure of Ukrainian ethnic group staying in the Czech Republic in 1991–2011. It touches the issue of the problem of the absence of objective statistical information sources in the national science for estimation of Ukrainian migration losses. It analyses the prospect of the involment of the foreign statistical sources for estiment of Ukrainian migration extent. The study is based on summarized data of population census of the Czech Republic in 1991, 2001 ,2011 which contained records about ethnic Ukrainians and Rusyns who lived in the country. It is reported about the features of age and gender composition of Ukrainian ethnic group in these years and of migration flows from Ukraine to the Czech Republic during the intercensal period. Special attention is paid to the dynamics of changes of age structure of Ukrainian ethnic group during the mentioned period. The article gives valuable information on causes and consequences of the rapid demographic rejuvenation of Ukrainians in the Czech Republic. The article provides the reader with some information about negative tendencies and risks for Ukrainian demographic structure.

Contribution of the aging to the dicrease in the rate of economic activity: Quantification with the decomposition method

To explain the causes of the recent decrease in economic activity in Serbia and ascertain the extent to which population aging has contributed to this phenomenon, this paper uses the decomposition method to quantify two different kinds of effects: composite and direct. Direct effects or rate effects occur due to changes in the population?s behaviour, typically brought on by a changed cultural or institutional context or changes in the state of the labour market. Composite effects represent purely demographic effects, arising due to age re-composition of the population. This paper uses census data and the Prithwis Das Gupta decomposition method - widely accepted as best practice for this type of research. The results have shown that behavioural factors were twice as important as demographic factors in explaining the decrease in the rate of economic activity seen in the most recent inter-censal period.

Demographically depressed areas in Croatia: What should population policy be like?

Population aging, as well as general depopulation, represents the most important demographic process in the Republic of Croatia, which is characterized by a high degree of aging. The results of this research show that the aging process is present at a large scale in Croatia, though there are differences in the values of various indicators of population aging in relation to regional differences. The aim of this research was to identify settlements which were demographically revitalized, demographically old or demographically depressed areas among 6,606 Croatian settlements. The analysis was made by utilizing 11 variables for 6,606 settlements (while ignoring those settlements which had no population at all): three variables related to total population change (growth rate, migration and natural change in the last intercensal period 2001-2011); seven variables related to demographic aging based on the results of 2011 census (mean age, the percentage of population aged 0-14, the percentage of population aged 65 or over, the percentage of population aged 75 or over, the percentage of population aged 80 or over, aging index, old age dependency ratio) and the demographic corrective variable related to the population of settlements in 2011. All these variables were compared to the mean values at the level of the Republic of Croatia in order to generate the model of demographically depressed areas (iddp): extremely depressed areas, weakly depressed areas, areas of the impending demographic depression, non-depressed areas and extremely non-depressed areas. Additionally, the use of GIS tools allowed the analysis of distance between demographically old settlements and healthcare centres, which provided information about whether those settlements were isolated or not according to the given standard of distance. The results show that a relatively better demographic situation is present in continental areas and coastal areas near larger cities. Most settlements in those areas belong to the non-depressed group or the group of the impending depression. Demographic situation is especially unfavourable in Karlovac County, Sisak-Moslavina County and the interior of Dalmatia and Istria. In other words, there are 3,300 settlements in Croatia characterized by demographic depression, which is equal to 50% of the total number of settlements. Those settlements take up 50% of Croatia?s total area and 8% of its total population (324,000). All these settlements have rural characteristics, they are poorly populated and spatially isolated. As much as three-quarters of those settlements are outside of their respective healthcare centres within 15-kilometre range. Additionally, nearly three-quarters of those settlements are characterized by the latest stage of demographic aging (most advanced demographic age). In many of those settlements, age pyramids have been inverted due to a significant reduction in their population as well as a high degree of aging. Those settlements can no longer (bio) dynamically regenerate. Those areas can no longer be revitalized by means of immigration either. Instead, it is necessary for the state to engage in providing (long-term) social and health care, not merely in its own institutions, but in people?s homes as well, in order to ameliorate the effects of demographic aging and depopulation and to provide the elderly population with quality and dignity in their old age.

Beyond the obvious: A comparison of some demographic changes across selected shrinking and growing cities in the United States from 1990 to 2010

AbstractShrinking cities have undergone rapid demographic changes since World War II, especially as many of these urban centres deindustrialized during the 1970s and onwards. However, not all shrinking cities have experienced the same type of demographic changes. In fact, the shrinking designation may even be considered misleading in some places because not all population segments decrease during periods of overall total population decline. In order to gain a better grasp of these changes and trends over the past two decades, this paper use Franklin's () demographic shift‐share analysis to explore and compare changes in a series of racial and ethnic population characteristics across a selection of five shrinking cities (Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, Pittsburgh, and St. Louis) and five growing cities (Atlanta, Denver, Phoenix, San Diego, and Seattle) in the United States during the two intercensal periods of 1990 to 2000 and 2000 to 2010. The list of case studies is hardly exhaustive or necessarily representative but was rather chosen as a set of fairly high‐profile cities in the United States that would be useful in making comparisons with respect to their recent decline or growth. Results show that each of the shrinking cities and growing cities had exceptions among the population segments considered in this paper. For example, shrinking cities generally experienced growth in terms of their Mexican, Puerto Rican, Asian, and foreign‐born populations even as their White and Black populations rapidly declined between 1990 and 2010.

Vulnerability to poverty in Brazilian municipalities in 2000 and 2010: A multidimensional approach

Abstract The introduction of the temporal component into poverty analysis takes us to the study of the poverty dynamic, which focuses on investigating events of entering, remaining in and getting out of deprivation. As an effort to consider the diverse aspects unrelated to income in the study of vulnerability to poverty, the monetary approach is put aside and the multidimensional approach is used to elaborate the well-being index. The Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) is constructed with data from Brazil’s 2000 and 2010 Demographic Census. First, this article intends to quantify and describe the results of the MPI in Brazilian territory, using municipalities as unit of analysis. Second, it intends to analyze the factors associated to the poverty dynamics, which can be understood through the transition probability from a non-vulnerable state to a vulnerable state, in a distribution of the MPI in deciles. Finally, it intends to identify the municipalities that went through this transition in a regional level during the intercensal period. Results show that, despite the improvement observed in its whole national territory, Brazil’s North and Northeast remain with deeper deprivations while the Southern and Southeastern regions present the lowest incidence of multidimensional poverty. Dropout Rate of Grades 3–4 of High School, HDI-M Education, HDI-M Longevity, Logarithm of the Population, Gross Value Added per capita of Industry, Service Concentration Index and Entrepreneur Rate contribute positively to the reduction of municipal vulnerability to poverty. Compared to Northern municipalities, Southeastern Brazil has reduced more significantly the likelihood of position loss and has had a greater effect of increasing the probability of its upward movement.

Trends in Indigenous Language Usage

There has been substantial research into trends in maintenance and shift of community languages among Australian migrants; however, similar studies for Indigenous language usage in Australia are scarce. Studies of language maintenance and shift have tended to focus on language shift across specific languages. In this paper, we report on a study based on census data to identify reports of Indigenous language usage across three census periods; 2001, 2006 and 2011. The study examines the linguistic distribution of Indigenous language groups and identifies changes in numbers of speakers of specific Indigenous languages over the last inter-censal period. It then investigates language use on the basis of the age and gender distribution of Indigenous language speakers. We conclude with a discussion of the motivations for some of the changes observed in the language landscapes of Indigenous languages in Australia.

Just how many people live in central Sydney

This brief note examines population growth in central Sydney over the past two intercensal periods, highlighting the difficulties the Australian Bureau of Statistics has had in accurately tracking this growth in its annual estimates of resident population numbers and its 2001 Census operations. The paper is a reminder that published population data are not always what they seem. Copyright. Monash University and the author/s

Demografska kretanja i granični promet kao indikatori (ne)postojanja transgranične regije u hrvatsko-mađarskom pograničnom području

This paper analyzes passengers' traffic across the border crossings and demographic trends in Croatian-Hungarian border area. The aim of this work is to determine the intensity of transborder relations and processes in neighbouring areas in the period of "loosening" of the Croatian-Hungarian border and their reflection in space. This will be determined through the analysis of the population trends in the last intercensal period (1991-2001 in Croatia, 1990-2001 in Hungary). The assumption is that significant transborder cooperation has not been established yet and that a transborder region has not been formed despite the "loosening" of the border. This statement has been confirmed by comparing demographic trends in the settlements with border crossings, in the settlements along the border, but without border crossings, in the settlements that are within 10 km from the border, but do not have an exit to it and finally, in other settlements of the border area from the Croatian and Hungarian side of the border.

Sociodemografske značajke i procesi u hrvatskim obalnim gradovima

Polarisation processes, which began in Croatia in the 1950's, resulted in disparate socio-economic development, in an uneven spatial distribution of the population, and in a concentration of people, jobs and housing in urban settlements. Coastal cities, as hubs and agents of socio-economic development, in their regions became focal points for the concentration of the population, while islands and hinterland areas suffered depopulation and demographic ageing. Intense in-migration had a positive influence on the demographic development of coastal cities. They became hotbeds of bioreproduction and up to the most recent intercensus period (1991–2001) displayed dynamic population growth. However political and economic changes in this recent period, together with the effects of the war, deepened and accelerated increasingly unfavourable demographic processes, which were reflected in an overall reduction of the population of coastal Adriatic cities, as well as in a deterioration of its structure. Decreasing fertility, demographic ageing and changes in life values brought about a transformation of the family, and hence changes in the size of households and in the relations among family members. The general trend today involves a gradual reduction in the number of household members, and a continuous increase in the number of two and one-member households.

Stanovništvo kao strateški potencijal sistema odbrane Republike Srbije

The population represents the strategic potential of every country including Serbia. Nowadays Serbia is characterized by an accelerated and intensive process of population ageing, which can have negative implications for the defense system. On the basis of the census data, this paper analyzes the age structure of the population in Serbia with a special emphasis on the inter-census period between 2002 and 2011. The increase in ageing will continue, and the importance of population ageing in considering the defense function of the Republic of Serbia has been pointed out, as well as the further movement of the population in Serbia until 2041.

Use of Remote Sensing for Population Number Determination

Ideally, in a country the population censuses are held regularly (five or ten-year intervals), population surveys, called “control surveys” are then conducted during the intercensal period. The latter, as well as the registers of civil status (information on the movements of the population), help determining a representative sample, called “scale model of the population.” Random, stratified and weighted, it has the advantage of providing a good statistical database for any generalizations about the target population with relatively little risk of error. Our study area, Bukavu city, doesn't comply with the classical scheme of data collection for two main reasons: - there are more than twenty years that real demographic censuses have been carried out in the province, the records of the `civil status is poorly maintained and often incomplete—if any!—Especially during this post-conflict period. A study was conducted in Bukavu City to determine the number of people living in this city. Two GeoEye satellite images of 50 cm resolution captured in July 2012 were used. A net of 200 × 200 meters was created with ArcGIS to divide the satellite images into regular cells. In total 2772 cells were created to cover the two satellite images but only 2353 cells were considered for classification. Three classes were identified in the satellite images according to houses density: High density, medium density and low density zones. Three samples were selected and for each different density type, a point map was created covering each house of the selected sample zones received a point. Using the three different density patterns, 95 highly populated zones were identified, 307 medium density zones and 800 low density zones having each respectively a total of 30'400, 46'050, and 40'000 houses. The population of the city was obtained by taking the number of houses times an average of 8, 7 and 6 habitants per house respectively in high, medium and low density zones. A total of 805550 habitants was obtained for Bukavu city which is almost the same number of people estimated (830'000) by the Inspection Provinciale de la Sante which is the health office in charge of vaccination campaign in South-Kivu Province. This method can be used whenever there is a need to quickly estimate the number of the population in a region where there is no census data.

Variations in basic demographics consequential to population size of governorate in Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia, divided into 5 planning regions, 13 administrative regions and further to 118 governorates (administrative units), has diverse demographic characteristics from one region to another and from one governorate to another. Rural to urban migration and an exodus of immigrants characterize the Kingdom, where development planning depend largely upon local level requirements based on economic activities. An attempt was made to analyze the population characteristics, such as population size, sex ratio, native to foreigner ratio, and households and persons per households by keeping governorate as unit of analysis. Data of two census period (2004 and 2010) was used in order to explore the situation and track the intercensal changes. Large variations in population were observed between governorates and it varied from 3686 to 5,007,886 in 2010. Governorates are divided according to the number of native population demarcating urbanization, modernization and infrastructure. During the intercensal period, the number of small governorates reduced and medium and large sized governorates increased mainly due to population growth. The average population in governorates was increased in total and in the larger governorates during the period. However, we noticed a reduction in the average population size in the small and medium sized governorates. The size of native population in a governorate influences the sex ratio, the native-foreigner ratio and the persons per household as well as the variations within the group of governorates. Analyses of lower level data shall aid not only to understand the situation but also to support local development policies.

Transport Supply and Demand Changes in Relation to Unemployment: Empirical Evidence from the Czech Republic in a Time of Crisis

AbstractThe continuing European recession underlines the urgency of the unemployment and labour force mobility issue. Therefore, the objective of this study is to scrutinise the relationship between changes in unemployment rate and transport indicators in the intercensal period 2001–2011. Both primary and secondary data are used in the analysis. Rate of car ownership and commuting data were taken from national censuses in 2001 and 2011 which surrounded the 2008 crisis. Primary data came from 1,023 interviews. The relationships among indicators are identified with the help of several statistical techniques whose results are analysed. Further, analyses have confirmed the dominant importance of passenger car ownership and car use in relation to decreased unemployment. It is particularly important in economically weaker areas with a poor access, that are endangered by social exclusions. Furthermore, it is necessary to emphasise the importance of public transport as a means of preventing social exclusion.

‘Missing girls’ in China and India: trends and policy challenges

ABSTRACTChild sex ratios plateaued in China between the censuses of 2000 and 2010, a major change from decades of sharp rises. In India they rose by 1.4 per cent during the intercensal period 2001–2011, which is a much slower rate of increase than in previous decades, and reported son preference is falling. In both countries, the largest declines are in regions that had the highest child sex ratios earlier, while some surrounding regions show rises. State policies to reduce sex-selection through offering financial incentives or banning the use of sex-selective technology show limited evidence of effectiveness. In China, the overall level of sex-selection remained stable, while the census data show a sharp shift towards sex-selection at the first birth—likely related to the mode of implementation of the program to reduce sex-selection. Studies indicate that media outreach can be very effective at changing norms and behaviors, including reducing son preference. Reducing the demand for sex-selection may offer the most effective long-term solution.

The stability of geodemographic cluster assignments over an intercensal period

A geodemographic classification provides a set of categorical summaries of the built and socio-economic characteristics of small geographic areas. Many classifications, including that developed in this paper, are created entirely from data extracted from a single decennial census of population. Such classifications are often criticised as becoming less useful over time because of the changing composition of small geographic areas. This paper presents a methodology for exploring the veracity of this assertion, by examining changes in UK census-based geodemographic indicators over time, as well as a substantive interpretation of the overall results. We present an innovative methodology that classifies both 2001 and 2011 census data inputs utilising a unified geography and set of attributes to create a classification that spans both census periods. Through this classification, we examine the temporal stability of the clusters and whether other secondary data sources and internal measures might usefully indicate local uncertainties in such a classification during an intercensal period.

Change in trade wind inversion frequency implicated in the decline of an alpine plant

Detailed assessments of species responses to climate change are uncommon, owing to the limited nature of most ecological and local climate data sets. Exceptions, such as the case of the Haleakalā silversword, can provide important insights into the complexity of biological responses to changing climate conditions. We present a time series of decadal population censuses, combined with a pair of early population projections, which together span the past 80 years of demographic history for this alpine plant. The time series suggests a strong population recovery from the 1930s through the 1980s, likely owing at least in part to management actions taken on its behalf. In contrast, the population is estimated to have suffered a decline of approximately 60 % since the early 1990s. Fine-scale estimates of rainfall within silversword habitat are strongly correlated with these decadal-scale population changes over the past 50 years, with rainfall estimated to be substantially lower on average during the two most recent inter-census periods (after 1991). The reversal in the silversword population trajectory, and declines in rainfall in silversword habitat, coincide with an abrupt increase in the frequency of occurrence of the trade wind inversion (TWI) in Hawaiʻi around 1990. The shift in TWI incidence, which is linked to stronger subsidence in the Hadley circulation, has led to drier conditions in high elevation ecosystems in Hawaiʻi and appears to be eliciting ecological responses. Other regions influenced by the TWI could be similarly affected. The silversword case study reveals additional unexpected outcomes, such as the likely initial retraction from wetter, rather than drier, portions of the range in response to drying conditions. This pattern may stem in part from variation in drought tolerance across the range, highlighting the importance of detailed ecological and climatic information for making accurate predictions about climate change responses.

Demografski razvoj otoka Brača i sklonost otočana iseljavanju

Demografski razvoj otoka Brača i sklonost otočana iseljavanju