Intensive Care Admission Research Articles

Psychometric analysis of the modified COVID-19 Yorkshire Rehabilitation Scale (C19-YRSm) in a prospective multicentre study

BackgroundLong COVID (LC) is a novel multisystem clinical syndrome affecting millions of individuals worldwide. The modified COVID-19 Yorkshire Rehabilitation Scale (C19-YRSm) is a condition-specific patient-reported outcome measure designed for assessment...

The effect of family-centered care on unplanned emergency room visits, hospital readmissions and intensive care admissions after surgery: a root cause analysis from a prospective multicenter study in the Netherlands

BackgroundOptimizing transitional care by practicing family-centered care might reduce unplanned events for patients who undergo major abdominal cancer surgery. However, it remains unknown whether involving family caregivers in patients’ healthcare also has negative consequences for patient safety. This study assessed the safety of family involvement in patients’ healthcare by examining the cause of unplanned events in patients who participated in a family involvement program (FIP) after major abdominal cancer surgery.MethodsThis is a secondary analysis focusing on the intervention group of a prospective cohort study conducted in the Netherlands. Data were collected from April 2019 to May 2022. Participants in the intervention group were patients who engaged in a FIP. Unplanned events were analyzed, and root causes were identified using the medical version of a prevention- and recovery-information system for monitoring and analysis (PRISMA) that analyses unintended events in healthcare. Unplanned events were compared between patients who received care from family caregivers and patients who received professional at-home care after discharge. A Mann-Whitney U test was used to analyze data.ResultsOf the 152 FIP participants, 68 experienced an unplanned event and were included. 112 unplanned events occurred with 145 root causes since some unplanned events had several root causes. Most root causes of unplanned events were patient-related factors (n = 109, 75%), such as patient characteristics and disease-related factors. No root causes due to inadequate healthcare from the family caregiver were identified. Unplanned events did not differ statistically (interquartile range 1–2) (p = 0.35) between patients who received care from trained family caregivers and those who received professional at-home care after discharge.ConclusionBased on the insights from the root-cause analysis in this prospective multicenter study, it appears that unplanned emergency room visits and hospital readmissions are not related to the active involvement of family caregivers in surgical follow-up care. Moreover, surgical follow-up care by trained family caregivers during hospitalization was not associated with increased rates of unplanned adverse events. Hence, the concept of active family involvement by proficiently trained family caregivers in postoperative care appears safe and feasible for patients undergoing major abdominal surgery.

Risk factors of early infectious complications after ureterorenoscopy for stone disease: a prospective study.

To prospectively evaluate the rate and associated risk factors of early infectious complications after ureterorenoscopy for urolithiasis. After ethical committee approval, 400 therapeutic retrograde ureterorenoscopy procedures between August 3, 2020 and November 24, 2021 were included for analysis in a single-center study. Postoperative infection was defined as an afebrile urinary tract infection, fever (≥ 38°C) with pyuria (≥ 300WBC/μL) or proven urinary pathogen, and urosepsis. The primary outcome was the rate of infectious complications after ureterorenoscopy. Secondary outcomes were the perioperative factors that increased the risk of infectious complications within 30days of surgery using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Twenty-nine of four hundred (7.3%) patients developed an infectious complication within 30days after ureterorenoscopy. Ten (2.5%) patients developed an afebrile urinary tract infection, eight (2.0%) developed fever with pyuria, five (1.3%) febrile urinary tract infection, and six (1.5%) urosepsis. On univariate analysis, preoperative stent-type JFil® pigtail suture stent was significantly associated with the dependent variable (p < 0.001). On multivariate logistic regression analysis, older age (OR 1.035; 95% CI 1.006-1.070; p = 0.02) was found to be significantly associated with developing a postoperative infectious complication. A 7.3% rate of postoperative infectious complications and 1.5% urosepsis rate were observed after therapeutic ureterorenoscopy, without the need of intensive care admission. The only significant risk factors were preoperative stent type (JFil® pigtail suture stent) on univariate analysis, and older age on multivariate logistic regression analysis. Further multicentric prospective observational data are needed in this field.

Comparison of composite adverse perinatal outcomes in early- and late-onset intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy

Comparison of composite adverse perinatal outcomes in early- and late-onset intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy

Clinical Profile of Acute Poisoning Cases at a Tertiary Care Hospital in Kashmir, India: A Descriptive Cross Sectional Study

Acute poisoning from a variety of substances is common in every part of the world. The sooner the initial resuscitation, decontamination, and use of specific antidotes, the better the outcome. The main objective of this study was to describe the clinical profile and outcome of poisoning cases admitted to SKIMS Medical college, a tertiary care hospital located in central part of Jammu and Kashmir India. Descriptive cross sectional evaluations were conducted on all cases that were admitted to the hospital’s emergency room over a period of one year from March 2022 to February 2023. The following parameters were examined using data taken from hospital medical records: socioeconomic factors, substances consumed, routes of intake, clinical symptomatology and severity of poisoning.300 patients were included in the study with different poisonings of which 35% were males and 65% were females. The most common form of poisoning was due to pesticides followed by rodenticides and opioid intoxication respectively. Majority of the patients had suicidal intent followed by accidental ingestion reported mainly in children. Few patient required intensive care admissions rest all were managed in general ward depicting mild severity of poisoning in majority of the patients. Three patients were brought dead to hospital secondary to opoid overdose and one patient died in hospital who had pesticide ingestion complicated by ventilator associated pneumonia. The less mortality in this study was likely due to mild severity of poisoning, early gut lavage and easy access to hospital. The effects of poisoning on the human body are negative regardless of the agents or method used and this has an impact on the treatment and outcome. Due consideration must be given to clinical, toxicological and epidemiological profiles. Therefore precise and prompt diagnosis, adequate treatment and effective preventative efforts are required. This study highlighted the importance of awareness and for the establishment of poison information centre for the better management and prevention of all poisoning cases.

SpO2/FiO2 and PaO2/FiO2 for Predicting Intensive Care Admission in Wheezy Children: An Observational Study

SpO2/FiO2 and PaO2/FiO2 for Predicting Intensive Care Admission in Wheezy Children: An Observational Study

Deviations in RSV epidemiological patterns and population structures in the United States following the COVID-19 pandemic

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is a leading cause of acute respiratory tract infection, with the greatest impact on infants, immunocompromised individuals, and older adults. RSV prevalence decreased substantially in the United States (US) following the implementation of COVID-19-related non-pharmaceutical interventions but later rebounded with abnormal seasonality. The biological and epidemiological factors underlying this altered behavior remain poorly defined. In this retrospective cohort study from 2009 to 2023 in Chicago, Illinois, US, we examined RSV epidemiology, clinical severity, and genetic diversity. We found that changes in RSV diagnostic platforms drove increased detections in outpatient settings post-2020 and that hospitalized adults infected with RSV-A were at higher risk of intensive care admission than those with RSV-B. While population structures of RSV-A remained unchanged, RSV-B exhibited a genetic shift into geographically distinct clusters. Mutations in the antigenic regions of the fusion protein suggest convergent evolution with potential implications for vaccine and therapeutic development.

Investigation of the Association between Bilateral Selective Anterograde Cerebral Perfusion and Postoperative Ischemic Stroke in Obese Patients with Emergency Surgery for Acute Type A Aortic Dissection.

Background and objectives: The relationship between cerebral perfusion and new postoperative ischemic stroke in obese patients is not well defined. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between selective bilateral anterograde cerebral perfusion and new postoperative ischemic stroke in obese patients with emergency surgery for acute type A aortic dissection. Materials and methods: A total of 292 patients with emergency surgery for acute type A aortic dissection were included in this study. Patients with hemorrhagic stroke or ischemic stroke with severe neurological dysfunction at admission that were not candidates for surgery; patients who died in the first 48 h after intensive care admission and patients with incomplete medical records were excluded. Results: The mean age was 59.42 ± 10.68 years and the mean Euroscore was 9.12 ± 1.63. Obesity was present in 76.4%, the incidence of new postoperative ischemic stroke was 27.5%, and the postoperative mortality rate was 26.7%. The mean cardiopulmonary bypass time was 206.81 ± 75.48 min, the aortic cross-clamp time was 118.2 ± 46.42 min, and 90% of cases required cerebral perfusion. The mean cerebral perfusion time was 30.8 ± 24.41 min. Obese patients had a higher frequency of in-hospital death (p = 0.009), smoking (p = 0.036), hypertension (p = 0.023), left common carotid artery dissection (p < 0.001), right common carotid artery dissection (p = 0.029), femoral artery cannulation (p = 0.026), aortic root replacement (p = 0.009), aortic valve replacement (p = 0.005) and early reintervention for bleeding (p = 0.004). Using logistic regression, selective bilateral anterograde cerebral perfusion over 40 min in obese patients was independently associated with new postoperative ischemic stroke (OR = 2.35; 95%CI = 1.36-4.86; p = 0.021). Conclusions: A patient-tailored strategy for cerebral perfusion should be considered in obese patients, considering the high atheromatous burden of the supra-aortic vessels in these patients and the potential risk of atheromatous embolization associated with this technique.

Evaluation of risk factors for postoperative neurologic intensive care admission after brain tumor craniotomy: A single-center longitudinal study.

Perioperative variable parameters can be significant risk factors for postoperative intensive care unit (ICU) admission after elective craniotomy for intracranial neoplasm, as assessed by various scoring systems such as Cranio Score. This observational study evaluates the relationship between these factors and early postoperative neurological complications necessitating ICU admission. In total, 119 patients, aged 18 years and above, of either sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grades I-III, scheduled for elective craniotomy and tumor excision were included. The primary objective was to evaluate the relationship between perioperative risk factors and the incidence of early postoperative complications as a means of validation of the Cranio Score. The secondary outcomes studied were 30-day postoperative morbidity/mortality and the association with patient-related risk factors. Forty-five of 119 patients (37.82%) required postoperative ICU care with the mean duration of ICU stay being 1.92 ± 4.91 days. Tumor location (frontal/infratemporal region), preoperative deglutition disorder, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) less than 15, motor deficit, cerebellar deficit, midline shift >3 mm, mass effect, tumor size, use of blood products, lateral position, inotropic support, elevated systolic/mean arterial pressures, and duration of anesthesia/surgery were associated with a higher incidence of ICU care. Maximum (P = 0.035, AOR = 1.130) and minimum systolic arterial pressures (P = 0.022, Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 0.861) were the only independent risk factors. Cranio Score was found to be an accurate predictor of complications at a cut-off point of >10.52%. The preoperative motor deficit was the only independent risk factor associated with 30-day morbidity (AOR = 4.66). Perioperative hemodynamic effects are an independent predictor of postoperative ICU requirement. Further Cranio Score is shown to be a good scoring system for postoperative complications.

Effectiveness of Copeptin, MR-proADM and MR-proANP in Predicting Adverse Outcomes, Alone and in Combination with Traditional Severity Scores, a Secondary Analysis in COVID-19 Patients Requiring Intensive Care Admission.

Objective: To investigate whether copeptin, MR-proADM and MR-proANP, alone or integrated with the SOFA, MuLBSTA and SAPS II scores, are capable of early recognition of COVID-19 ICU patients at increased risk of adverse outcomes. Methods: For this predefined secondary analysis of a larger cohort previously described, all consecutive COVID-19 adult patients admitted between March and December 2020 to the ICU of a referral, university hospital in Northern Italy were screened, and clinical severity scores were calculated upon admission. A blood sample for copeptin, MR-proADM and MR-proANP was collected within 48 h (T1), on day 3 (T3) and 7 (T7). Outcomes considered were ICU and in-hospital mortality, bacterial superinfection, recourse to renal replacement therapy (RRT) or veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, need for invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and pronation. Results: Sixty-eight patients were enrolled, and in-hospital mortality was 69.1%. ICU mortality was predicted by MR-proANP measured at T1 (HR 1.005, 95% CI 1.001-1.010, p = 0.049), although significance was lost if the analysis was adjusted for procalcitonin and steroid treatment (p = 0.056). Non-survivors showed higher MR-proADM levels than survivors at all time points, and an increase in the ratio between values at baseline and at T7 > 4.9% resulted in a more than four-fold greater risk of in-hospital mortality (HR 4.417, p < 0.001). Finally, when considering patients with any reduction in glomerular filtration, an early copeptin level > 23.4 pmol/L correlated with a more than five-fold higher risk of requiring RRT during hospitalization (HR 5.305, p = 0.044). Conclusion: Timely evaluation of MR-proADM, MR-proANP and copeptin, as well as changes in the former over time, might predict mortality and other adverse outcomes in ICU patients suffering from severe COVID-19.

Harnessing Big Data in Critical Care: Exploring a new European Dataset

Freely available datasets have become an invaluable tool to propel data-driven research, especially in the field of critical care medicine. However, the number of datasets available is limited. This leads to the repeated reuse of datasets, inherently increasing the risk of selection bias. Additionally, the need arose to validate insights derived from one dataset with another. In 2023, the Salzburg Intensive Care database (SICdb) was introduced. SICdb offers insights in currently 27,386 intensive care admissions from 21,583 patients. It contains cases of general and surgical intensive care from all disciplines. Amongst others SICdb contains information about: diagnosis, therapies (including data on preceding surgeries), scoring, laboratory values, respiratory and vital signals, and configuration data. Data for SICdb (1.0.6) was collected at one single tertiary care institution of the Department of Anesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine at the Salzburger Landesklinik (SALK) and Paracelsus Medical University (PMU) between 2013 and 2021. This article aims to elucidate on the characteristics of the dataset, the technical implementation, and provides analysis of its strengths and limitations.

Are Deep Odontogenic Infections Associated With an Increased Risk for Sepsis?

Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) is recommended to identify sepsis. Odontogenic infection (OI) can progress to sepsis, causing systematic inflammatory complications or organ failure. The purpose of the study was to measure the association between OI location and risk for sepsis at admission. This retrospective cohort study included subjects treated for OI at Baylor University Medical Center in Dallas, TX, from January 9, 2019 to July 30, 2022. Subjects > 18years old who were treated under general anesthesia were included. OI limited to periapical, vestibular, buccal, and/or canine spaces were excluded from the sample. The primary predictor variable was OI anatomic location (superficial or deep). Superficial OI infection includes submental, submandibular, sublingual, submasseteric, and/or superficial temporal spaces. Deep OI includes pterygomandibular, deep temporal, lateral pharyngeal, retropharyngeal, pretracheal, and/or prevertebral. The primary outcome variable was risk for sepsis measured using a qSOFA score (0 to 3). A higher score (>0) indicates the patient has a high risk for sepsis. Covariates were demographics, clinical, laboratory, and radiological findings, antibiotic route, postoperative endotracheal intubation, tracheostomy, intensive care unit, admission, and length of stay. Descriptive and bivariate analyses were performed. A χ2 test was used for categorical variables. The Mann-Whitney U test was used for continuous variables. Statistical significance was P<.05. The sample was composed of 168 subjects with a mean age of 42.8±21.5 and 69 (48.6%) subjects were male. There were 11 (6.5%) subjects with a qSOFA score > 0. The relative risk of a qSOFA > 0 for a deep OI is 5.4 times greater than for a superficial OI (136 (95.8) versus 21 (80.8%): RR (95% confidence interval): 5.4 (1.51 to 19.27), P=.004). After adjusting for age, sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists score, and involved anatomical spaces, there was a significant correlation between laterality and the number of involved anatomical spaces and qSOFA score (odd ratio=9.13, 95% confidence interval: 2.48 to 33.55, adjusted P= <.001). The study findings suggest that the OI location is associated with the qSOFA score >0.

Risk of Invasive Meningococcal Disease in Preterm Infants.

Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) is most common in the first year of life. We hypothesized that preterm infants may have a higher risk of IMD and more severe disease than term infants. We compared the incidence, demographics, clinical presentation, and outcomes of IMD in preterm compared with term infants during the first 5 years after implementation of a national meningococcal group B vaccine (4CMenB) for infants in England. The UK Health Security Agency conducts enhanced national IMD surveillance with detailed follow-up of all confirmed cases in England. Infants aged <1 year (uncorrected for gestational age) with IMD confirmed between 1 September 2015 and 31 August 2020 were included. There were 393 infant IMD cases (incidence, 12.4/100 000 live births). Among 363 (92.4%) of the infants with known gestational age, the IMD incidence was higher in preterm (<37 weeks' gestation) than in term infants (18.3/100 000 vs 10.9/100 000; incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.68 [95% confidence interval, 1.23-2.29]; P = .001). The IMD incidence was highest in those born at <32 weeks' gestation (32.9/100 000; incidence rate ratio for <32 weeks' gestation vs term, 3.01 [95% confidence interval, 1.73-5.24]; P ≤ .001). There were no differences in demographics, clinical presentation, rate of intensive care admission, or case-fatality rate, but preterm infants were more likely than term infants to have ≥1 reported sequela (14 of 39 [35.9%] vs 51 of 268 [19.0%]; P = .02). Preterm infants had a higher incidence of IMD than term infants and the IMD incidence was highest in infants born at <32 weeks' gestation. Preterm infants also had a higher risk of IMD sequelae.

Incidence, management and prognosis of new-onset sarcoidosis post COVID-19 infection.

SARS-CoV-2 infection has been linked to hyperinflammation in multiple organs with a potential mechanistic link with resulting autoimmunity. There have been reports of many inflammatory complications following COVID-19, including sarcoidosis. A literature review on new-onset sarcoidosis following COVID-19 is lacking. We evaluated potential associations between COVID-19 and development of new-onset sarcoidosis. Articles discussing biopsy-proven sarcoidosis after confirmed COVID-19 infection, published 1956 until April 2023, were included. All article types were deemed eligible except opinion and review articles. A pooled total of 15 patients with new-onset diagnosis of sarcoidosis after COVID-19 infection were included, 45.5% female, mean age 46.1 years (standard deviation 14.7) at onset of sarcoidosis. Patients were from: Europe (n=11); North America (n=2); South America (n=1); Asia (n=1). The mean time between COVID-19 infection and diagnosis of sarcoidosis was 56.3 days, although this ranged from 10 to 140 days. Organ systems predominantly affected by sarcoidosis were: pulmonary (n=11); cutaneous (n=3); cardiac (n=2); ocular (n=1); systemic (n=1) (with overlapping features in certain patients). Sarcoidosis was treated as follows: glucocorticoids (n=8); azathioprine (n=1); cardiac re-synchronisation therapy (n=1); heart transplant (n=1). All patients were reported to have survived, with one requiring intensive care admission. Our result suggests there is a potential link between COVID-19 and new-onset sarcoidosis. The potential mechanism for this is through cytokine mediated immune modulation in COVID-19 infection. Obtaining a tissue sample remains key in confirming the diagnosis of sarcoidosis and this may be delayed during active COVID-19 infection.

Antibiotic Use in Late Preterm and Full-Term Newborns

Antibiotic treatment saves lives in newborns with early-onset sepsis (EOS), but unwarranted antibiotic use is associated with resistant bacteria and adverse outcomes later in life. Surveillance is needed to optimize treatment strategies. To describe antibiotic use in association with the incidence and mortality from EOS among late-preterm and full-term newborns. The Sweden Neonatal Antibiotic Use study was a nationwide observational study that included all late-preterm and full-term neonates born from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2020, in neonatal units of all levels. All hospital live births from 34 weeks' gestation during the study period were included in the study. Data were collected from the Swedish Neonatal Quality Register and the Swedish Medical Birth Register. Data were analyzed from August 2022 to May 2023. Admission for neonatal intensive care during the first week of life. The main outcomes were the usage of intravenous antibiotics during the first week of life, the duration of antibiotic therapy, the rate of culture-proven EOS, and mortality associated with EOS. A total of 1 025 515 newborns were included in the study; 19 286 neonates (1.88%; 7686 girls [39.9%]; median [IQR] gestational age, 40 [38-41] weeks; median [IQR] birth weight, 3610 [3140-4030] g) received antibiotics during the first week of life, of whom 647 (3.4%) had EOS. The median (IQR) duration of antibiotic treatment in newborns without EOS was 5 (3-7) days, and there were 113 antibiotic-days per 1000 live births. During the study period there was no significant change in the exposure to neonatal antibiotics or antibiotic-days per 1000 live births. The incidence of EOS was 0.63 per 1000 live births, with a significant decrease from 0.74 in 2012 to 0.34 in 2020. Mortality associated with EOS was 1.39% (9 of 647 newborns) and did not change significantly over time. For each newborn with EOS, antibiotic treatment was initiated in 29 newborns and 173 antibiotic-days were dispensed. This large nationwide study found that a relatively low exposure to antibiotics is not associated with an increased risk of EOS or associated mortality. Still, future efforts to reduce unwarranted neonatal antibiotic use are needed.

Is There Utility in Preoperative Testing of Hemoglobin Before Primary Cheiloplasty?

To examine whether a preoperative hemoglobin of less than 10 g/dL is associated with a higher rate of perioperative complications. Retrospective review. Tertiary academic hospital at Arkansas Children's Hospital of Little Rock, Arkansas. A retrospective chart review evaluated patients undergoing primary cleft lip surgery from 2012 to 2017. No prospective intervention was performed for this study care. Age, sex, medical history, weight, and perioperative complications. Hemoglobin level was collected in the preoperative area. The primary outcome was rate of perioperative complications including infection, dehiscence, return to the operating room, unplanned admission, and emergency department visit within two weeks postoperatively. 105 patients undergoing primary cheiloplasty met inclusion criteria. Hemoglobin levels were obtained on all patients. 93.3% (n = 98) of patients had a hemoglobin of >10 g/dL before surgery, and 6.6% (n = 7) had levels <10 g/dL. 1 of 7 patients with a hemoglobin of <10 g/dL experienced a postoperative complication (Tet spell) and one patient with a hemoglobin of >10 g/dL experienced a postoperative complication (unplanned intensive care admission for respiratory distress). Post-operative complications are rare after primary cheiloplasty in patients with low or normal hemoglobin levels. The results of this study show that a preoperative hemoglobin of <10 g/dL does not predict perioperative complications in patients undergoing primary cheiloplasty.

Physiologic parameters and radiologic findings can predict pulmonary complications and guide management in traumatic rib fractures

BackgroundTraumatic rib fracture is associated with a high morbidity rate and identifying patients at risk of developing pulmonary complications (PC) can guide management and potentially decrease unnecessary intensive care admissions. Therefore, we sought to assess and compare the utility of a physiologic parameter, vital capacity (VC), with the admission radiologic findings (RibScore) in predicting PC in patients with rib fractures. MethodsThis is a single-center retrospective review (2015–2018) of all adult (≥18 years) patients admitted to a Level I trauma center with traumatic rib fracture. Exclusion criteria included no CT scan and absence of VC within 48 h of admission. The cohort was stratified into two groups based on presence or absence of PC (pneumonia, unplanned intubation, unplanned transfer to the intensive care unit for a respiratory concern, or the need for a tracheostomy). Multivariable logistic regression models were constructed to identify predictors of PC. ResultsA total of 654 patients met the inclusion criteria of whom 70 % were males. The median age was 51 years and fall (48 %) was the most common type of injury. A total of 36 patients (5.5 %) developed a pulmonary complication. These patients were more likely to be older, had a higher ISS, and were more likely to require a tube thoracostomy placement. On multivariable logistic regression, first VC ≤30 % (AOR: 4.29), day 1 VC ≤30 % (AOR: 3.61), day 2 VC ≤30 % (AOR: 5.54), Δ(Day2-Day1 VC) (AOR: 0.96), and RibScore ≥2 (AOR: 3.19) were significantly associated with PC. On discrimination analysis, day 2 VC had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AuROC), 0.81, and was superior to first VC and day 1 VC in predicting PC. There was no statistically significant difference in predicting PC between day 2 VC and RibScore. On multivariable analysis, first VC ≤30 %, day 1 VC ≤30 %, day 2 VC ≤30 %, and admission RibScore ≥2 were associated with prolonged hospital and ICU LOS. ConclusionVC and RibScore emerged as independent predictors of PC. However, VC was not found to be superior to RibScore in predicting PC. Further prospective research is warranted to validate the findings of this study.

Description of a national, multi-center registry of patients with sickle cell disease and SARS-CoV-2 infection: Data from the Pediatric COVID-19 United States Registry.

Children with sickle cell disease (SCD) are at risk of complications from viral infections, including SARS-CoV-2. We present the clinical characteristics and outcomes of pediatric patients with SCD from the Pediatric COVID-19 United States Registry who developed acute COVID-19 due to SARS-CoV-2 infection (n=259) or multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C; n=4). Nearly half of hospitalized children with SCD and SARS-CoV-2 infection required supplemental oxygen, though children with SCD had fewer intensive care (ICU) admissions compared to the general pediatric and immunocompromised populations. All registry patients with both SCD and MIS-C required ICU admission. Children with SCD are at risk of severe disease with SARS-CoV-2 infection, highlighting the importance of vaccination in this vulnerable population.

Projecting COVID-19 intensive care admissions for policy advice, the Netherlands, February 2020 to January 2021.

BackgroundModel projections of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidence help policymakers about decisions to implement or lift control measures. During the pandemic, policymakers in the Netherlands were informed on a weekly basis with short-term projections of COVID-19 intensive care unit (ICU) admissions.AimWe aimed at developing a model on ICU admissions and updating a procedure for informing policymakers.MethodThe projections were produced using an age-structured transmission model. A consistent, incremental update procedure integrating all new surveillance and hospital data was conducted weekly. First, up-to-date estimates for most parameter values were obtained through re-analysis of all data sources. Then, estimates were made for changes in the age-specific contact rates in response to policy changes. Finally, a piecewise constant transmission rate was estimated by fitting the model to reported daily ICU admissions, with a changepoint analysis guided by Akaike's Information Criterion.ResultsThe model and update procedure allowed us to make weekly projections. Most 3-week prediction intervals were accurate in covering the later observed numbers of ICU admissions. When projections were too high in March and August 2020 or too low in November 2020, the estimated effectiveness of the policy changes was adequately adapted in the changepoint analysis based on the natural accumulation of incoming data.ConclusionThe model incorporates basic epidemiological principles and most model parameters were estimated per data source. Therefore, it had potential to be adapted to a more complex epidemiological situation with the rise of new variants and the start of vaccination.

Thick Data Analytics (TDA): An Iterative and Inductive Framework for Algorithmic Improvement

A gap remains between developing risk prediction models and deploying models to support real-world decision making, especially in high-stakes situations. Human-experts’ reasoning abilities remain critical in identifying potential improvements and ensuring safety. We propose a thick data analytics (TDA) framework for eliciting and combining expert-human insight into the evaluation of models. The insight is 3-fold: (a) statistical methods are limited to using joint distributions of observable quantities for predictions but often there is more information available in a real-world than what is usable for algorithms, (b) domain experts can access more information (e.g., patient files) than an algorithm and bring additional knowledge into their assessments through leveraging insights and experiences, and (c) experts can re-frame and re-evaluate prediction problems to suit real-world situations. Here, we revisit an example of predicting temporal risk for intensive care admission within 24 hr of hospitalization. We propose a sampling procedure for identifying informative cases for deeper inspection. Expert feedback is used to understand sources of information to improve model development and deployment. We recommend model assessment based on objective evaluation metrics derived from subjective evaluations of the problem formulation. TDA insights facilitate iterative model development toward safer, actionable, and acceptable risk predictions.