Intensity-duration Thresholds Research Articles

Relationships between natural terrain landslide magnitudes and triggering rainfall based on a large landslide inventory in Hong Kong

Rain-induced landslides are recognized as one of the most catastrophic hazards on hilly terrains. To develop strategies for landslide risk assessment and management, it is necessary to estimate not only the rainfall threshold for the initiation of landslides, but also the likely magnitudes of landslides triggered by a storm of a given intensity. In this study, the frequency distributions of both open hillside landslides and channelized debris flows in Hong Kong are established on the basis of the Enhanced Natural Terrain Landslide Inventory (ENTLI) with 19,763 records in Hong Kong up to 2013. The landslide magnitudes are measured in terms of the number, scar area, volume, or density of landslides. The mean values of the scar areas and volumes are 55.2 m2 and 102.0 m3, respectively, for the open hillside landslides and 91.3 m2 and 166.5 m3, respectively, for the channelized debris flows. Empirical correlations between the numbers, scar areas, and volumes of hillside landslides or channelized debris flows and the maximum rolling rainfall intensities of different periods have been derived. The maximum rolling 4- to 24-h rainfall amounts provide better predictions compared with those with the maximum rolling 1-h rainfall. Maximum rolling rainfall intensity-duration thresholds identifying the likely rainfall conditions that yield natural terrain landslides or debris flows of different magnitudes are also proposed. The initiation rainfall thresholds are identified as 75, 90, 100, 120, 150, 180, and 200 mm for the maximum rolling 1-, 2-, 4-, 6-, 8-, 12-, and 24-h rainfall, respectively.

Rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for landslide prediction in South Korea by considering the effects of antecedent rainfall

This study was conducted to determine the rainfall intensity-duration thresholds (ID curves) for landslide prediction by considering the effects of antecedent rainfall. Data for the time and location of landslides that occurred in South Korea from 1999 to 2016 were collected. Overall, 231 landslide histories from 1999 to 2013 were used to determine the rainfall thresholds, and 12 landslide histories from 2014 to 2016 were used to verify the proposed rainfall thresholds. Probabilistic ID curves were proposed to reflect the influence of other factors except rainfall, and ID curves for various inter-event time definitions (IETDs) were suggested to analyze the variation in the ID curves with the effects of antecedent rainfall. The results suggest that the IETD indicates the duration for which the antecedent rainfall affects the ground condition. It was also found that the ID curve for 12 h of the IETD was the most reliable of the verification procedures using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plot and threat score (TS).

Rainfall thresholds for the triggering of landslides considering previous soil moisture conditions (Asturias, NW Spain)

Given its geological and climatic conditions and its rugged orography, Asturias is one of the most landslide prone areas in the North of Spain. Most of the landslides occur during intense rainfall episodes. Thus, precipitation is considered the main triggering factor in the study area, reaching average annual values of 960 mm. Two main precipitation patterns are frequent: (i) long-lasting periods of moderate rainfall during autumn and winter and (ii) heavy short rainfall episodes during spring and early summer. In the present work, soil moisture conditions in the locations of 84 landslides are analysed during two rainfall episodes, which represent the most common precipitation patterns: October–November 2008 and June 2010. Empirical data allowed the definition of available water capacity percentages of 99–100% as critical soil moisture conditions for the landslide triggering. Intensity-duration rainfall thresholds were calculated for each episode, considering the periods with sustained high soil moisture levels before the occurrence of each analysed landslide event. For this purpose, data from daily water balance models and weather stations were used. An inverse relationship between the duration of the precipitation and its intensity, consistent with published intensity-duration thresholds, was observed, showing relevant seasonal differences.

Design and performance of a novel multi-function debris flow mitigation system in Wenjia Gully, Sichuan

The post-earthquake debris flows in the Wenjia Gully led to the exposure of the shortcomings in the design of the original conventional debris flow mitigation system. A predicament for the Wenjia mitigation system is a large amount of loose material (est. 50 × 106 m3) that has been deposited in the gully by the co-seismic landslide, providing abundant source material for debris flows under saturation. A novel design solution for the replacement mitigation system was proposed and constructed, and has exhibited excellent performance and resilience in subsequent debris flows. The design was governed by the three-phase philosophy of controlling water, sediment, and erosion. An Early Warning System (EWS) for debris flow that uses real-time field data was developed; it issues alerts based on the probabilistic and empirical correlations between rainfall and debris flows. This two-fold solution reduces energy of the debris flow by combining different mitigation measures while minimizing the impact through event forecasting and rapid public information sharing. Declines in the number and size of debris flows in the gully, with increased corresponding rainfall thresholds and mean rainfall intensity-duration (I-D) thresholds, indicate the high efficacy of the new mitigation system and a lowered debris flow susceptibility. This paper reports the design of the mitigation system and analyzes the characteristics of rainfall and debris flow events that occurred before and after implementation of the system; it evaluates the effectiveness of one of the most advanced debris flow mitigation systems in China.

Spatio-temporal analysis and simulation on shallow rainfall-induced landslides in China using landslide susceptibility dynamics and rainfall I-D thresholds

An empirical simulation method to simulate the possible position of shallow rainfall-induced landslides in China has been developed. This study shows that such a simulation may be operated in real-time to highlight those areas that are highly prone to rainfall-induced landslides on the basis of the landslide susceptibility index and the rainfall intensity-duration (I-D) thresholds. First, the study on landslide susceptibility in China is introduced. The entire territory has been classified into five categories, among which high-susceptibility regions (Zone 4- ‘High’ and 5-‘Very high’) account for 4.15% of the total extension of China. Second, rainfall is considered as an external triggering factor that may induce landslide initiation. Real-time satellite-based TMPA 3B42 products may provide real rainfall spatial and temporal patterns, which may be used to derive rainfall duration time and intensity. By using a historical record of 60 significant past landslides, the rainfall I-D equation has been calibrated. The rainfall duration time that may trigger a landslide has resulted between 3 hours and 45 hours. The combination of these two aspects can be exploited to simulate the spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall-induced landslide hazards when rainfall events exceed the rainfall I-D thresholds, where the susceptibility category is ‘high’ or ‘very high’. This study shows a useful tool to be part of a systematic landslide simulation methodology, potentially providing useful information for a theoretical basis and practical guide for landslide prediction and mitigation throughout China.

The canopy interception–landslide initiation conundrum: insight from a tropical secondary forest in northern Thailand

Abstract. The interception and smoothing effect of forest canopies on pulses of incident rainfall and its delivery to the soil has been suggested as a factor in moderating peak pore water pressure in soil mantles, thus reducing the risk of shallow landslides. Here we provide 3 years of rainfall and throughfall data in a tropical secondary dipterocarp forest characterized by few large trees in northern Thailand, along with selected soil moisture dynamics, to address this issue. Throughfall was an estimated 88 % of rainfall, varying from 86 to 90 % in individual years. Data from 167 events demonstrate that canopy interception was only weakly associated (via a nonlinear relationship) with total event rainfall, but not significantly correlated with duration, mean intensity, or antecedent 2-day precipitation (API2). Mean interception during small events (≤ 35 mm) was 17 % (n = 135 events) compared with only 7 % for large events (> 35 mm; n = 32). Examining small temporal intervals within the largest and highest intensity events that would potentially trigger landslides revealed complex patterns of interception. The tropical forest canopy had little smoothing effect on incident rainfall during the largest events. During events with high peak intensities, high wind speeds, and/or moderate-to-high pre-event wetting, measured throughfall was occasionally higher than rainfall during large event peaks, demonstrating limited buffering. However, in events with little wetting and low-to-moderate wind speed, early event rainfall peaks were buffered by the canopy. As rainfall continued during most large events, there was little difference between rainfall and throughfall depths. A comparison of both rainfall and throughfall depths to conservative mean intensity–duration thresholds for landslide initiation revealed that throughfall exceeded the threshold in 75 % of the events in which rainfall exceeded the threshold for both wet and dry conditions. Throughfall intensity for the 11 largest events (rainfall = 65–116 mm) plotted near or above the intensity–duration threshold for landslide initiation during wet conditions; 5 of the events were near or above the threshold for dry conditions. Soil moisture responses during large events were heavily and progressively buffered at depths of 1 to 2 m, indicating that the timescale of any short-term smoothing of peak rainfall inputs (i.e., ≤ 1 h) has little influence on peak pore water pressure at depths where landslides would initiate in this area. Given these findings, we conclude that canopy interception would have little effect on mitigating shallow landslide initiation during the types of monsoon rainfall conditions in this and similar tropical secondary forest sites.

Rainfall intensity–duration threshold and erosion competence of debris flows in four areas affected by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

Debris flows in the Wenchuan seismic region have caused human casualties and severe damage to local infrastructure. Consequently, the triggering rainfall threshold and erosion capability of post-quake debris flows has become an important research topic worldwide. In this study, we analyze five years of rainstorms and debris flow data from four typical earthquake-hit regions in order to examine the local rainfall intensity–duration (I-D) thresholds and debris supply conditions. It was found that debris flow events in the four seismic areas exhibited different I-D thresholds, related to local mean annual hourly precipitation and debris flow supply conditions. The I-D thresholds, normalized by mean annual maximum hourly rainfall, illustrate that post-quake rainfall thresholds were reduced by at least 30% compared to pre-quake levels. Regression analysis revealed a clear linear relationship between the debris supply condition and the empirical coefficient, α, of the I-D equation. This means that rainfall thresholds of post-quake debris flows in different areas are distinctive and are strongly affected by sediment volume. Different relationships between the entrainment rate and the debris volume per watershed area and its product with the channel gradient illustrate that stream sediments in Yingxiu and Dujiangyan are more eroded, and that local debris flows might persist over a shorter time than in Qingping and Beichuan in the future. Finally, debris flows in the studied area exhibit no tendency of reduction in erosion competence entrainment rate, as found in Taiwan, which might be indicative of a higher entrainment rate persisting for a longer time.

Prediction of spatially explicit rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for post-fire debris-flow generation in the western United States

Early warning of post-fire debris-flow occurrence during intense rainfall has traditionally relied upon a library of regionally specific empirical rainfall intensity–duration thresholds. Development of this library and the calculation of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds often require several years of monitoring local rainfall and hydrologic response to rainstorms, a time-consuming approach where results are often only applicable to the specific region where data were collected. Here, we present a new, fully predictive approach that utilizes rainfall, hydrologic response, and readily available geospatial data to predict rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for debris-flow generation in recently burned locations in the western United States. Unlike the traditional approach to defining regional thresholds from historical data, the proposed methodology permits the direct calculation of rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for areas where no such data exist. The thresholds calculated by this method are demonstrated to provide predictions that are of similar accuracy, and in some cases outperform, previously published regional intensity–duration thresholds. The method also provides improved predictions of debris-flow likelihood, which can be incorporated into existing approaches for post-fire debris-flow hazard assessment. Our results also provide guidance for the operational expansion of post-fire debris-flow early warning systems in areas where empirically defined regional rainfall intensity–duration thresholds do not currently exist.

Rainfall control of debris-flow triggering in the Réal Torrent, Southern French Prealps

This paper investigates the occurrence of debris flow due to rainfall forcing in the Réal Torrent, a very active debris flow-prone catchment in the Southern French Prealps. The study is supported by a 4-year record of flow responses and rainfall events, from three high-frequency monitoring stations equipped with geophones, flow stage sensors, digital cameras, and rain gauges measuring rainfall at 5-min intervals. The classic method of rainfall intensity–duration (ID) threshold was used, and a specific emphasis was placed on the objective identification of rainfall events, as well as on the discrimination of flow responses observed above the ID threshold. The results show that parameters used to identify rainfall events significantly affect the ID threshold and are likely to explain part of the threshold variability reported in the literature. This is especially the case regarding the minimum duration of rain interruption (MDRI) between two distinct rainfall events. In the Réal Torrent, a 3-h MDRI appears to be representative of the local rainfall regime. A systematic increase in the ID threshold with drainage area was also observed from the comparison of the three stations, as well as from the compilation of data from experimental debris-flow catchments. A logistic regression used to separate flow responses above the ID threshold, revealed that the best predictors are the 5-min maximum rainfall intensity, the 48-h antecedent rainfall, the rainfall amount and the number of days elapsed since the end of winter (used as a proxy of sediment supply). This emphasizes the critical role played by short intense rainfall sequences that are only detectable using high time-resolution rainfall records. It also highlights the significant influence of antecedent conditions and the seasonal fluctuations of sediment supply.

Characteristics of landslides in unwelded pyroclastic flow deposits, southern Kyushu, Japan

Abstract. We investigated 184 landslides that occurred in unwelded pyroclastic flow deposits (Shirasu) on southern Kyushu Island, Japan, that included detailed data on the rainfall characteristics and the timing of slope failure. Localized rainfall intensity, antecedent precipitation index (API), and topography affected the hydrologic processes that triggered landslides. API (adjusted for evapotranspiration losses) for large ( > 200 mm) storms that triggered landslides was much lower than for smaller ( ≤ 200 mm) storms. Mean storm intensity and 7-day API (API7) thresholds of > 5 mmh−1 and ≤ 30 mm (or API30 ≤ 60 mm), respectively, were useful to identify landslides triggered by rapid pore water pressure response, especially for shorter ( < 20 h) duration events. During smaller storms with lower intensity, landslides are likely affected by a combined increase in soil weight and loss of suction when API30 ≥ 150 mm; simulations indicated that these weight and suction changes due to rainfall accumulation decreased the factor of safety in steep Shirasu slopes, but did not necessarily trigger the landslides. Most of the landslides that were plotted below a general rainfall intensity–duration threshold for landslide initiation occurred during smaller storms with API30 values > 200 mm, indicating that they were highly influenced by the combined effects of the accumulated weight of rainfall and loss of suction. Our findings show that both event rainfall characteristics and API affect the hydrogeomorphic processes that trigger different types of landslides in Shirasu. This knowledge and the thresholds we have identified are useful for predicting the occurrence of different types of landslides in unwelded Shirasu deposits and improving sediment disaster prevention practices, including real-time warning systems.

Is there Predictive Power in Hydrological Catchment Information for Regional Landslide Hazard Assessment?

Regional landslide hazard assessment is often carried out by means of empirical meteorological thresholds, which reliability is sometimes limited by the lack of information about the hydrological processes which lead to landslide triggering in slopes. Hence, in this paper the inclusion of hydrological information at catchment scale in the definition of landslide triggering thresholds is applied to a catchment in the northern Apennines (Italy). In particular, an hydro-meteorological threshold based on event precipitation and catchment specific storage (H-S threshold) is proposed. The performance of the proposed threshold is compared with the one of the usually adopted precipitation Intensity-Duration (I-D) threshold. Although most of the landslide recorded in the observed period (2002-2013) were triggered by short and intense precipitation events with little influence of the slope conditions prior the precipitation, the H-Sthreshold performs slightly better than the I-D threshold.

Quantitative comparison between two different methodologies to define rainfall thresholds for landslide forecasting

Abstract. This work proposes a methodology to compare the forecasting effectiveness of different rainfall threshold models for landslide forecasting. We tested our methodology with two state-of-the-art models, one using intensity–duration thresholds and the other based on cumulative rainfall thresholds. The first model identifies rainfall intensity–duration thresholds by means of a software program called MaCumBA (MAssive CUMulative Brisk Analyzer) (Segoni et al., 2014a) that analyzes rain gauge records, extracts intensity (I) and duration (D) of the rainstorms associated with the initiation of landslides, plots these values on a diagram and identifies the thresholds that define the lower bounds of the I–D values. A back analysis using data from past events is used to identify the threshold conditions associated with the least number of false alarms. The second model (SIGMA) (Sistema Integrato Gestione Monitoraggio Allerta) (Martelloni et al., 2012) is based on the hypothesis that anomalous or extreme values of accumulated rainfall are responsible for landslide triggering: the statistical distribution of the rainfall series is analyzed, and multiples of the standard deviation (σ) are used as thresholds to discriminate between ordinary and extraordinary rainfall events. The name of the model, SIGMA, reflects the central role of the standard deviations. To perform a quantitative and objective comparison, these two models were applied in two different areas, each time performing a site-specific calibration against available rainfall and landslide data. For each application, a validation procedure was carried out on an independent data set and a confusion matrix was built. The results of the confusion matrixes were combined to define a series of indexes commonly used to evaluate model performances in natural hazard assessment. The comparison of these indexes allowed to identify the most effective model in each case study and, consequently, which threshold should be used in the local early warning system in order to obtain the best possible risk management. In our application, none of the two models prevailed absolutely over the other, since each model performed better in a test site and worse in the other one, depending on the characteristics of the area. We conclude that, even if state-of-the-art threshold models can be exported from a test site to another, their employment in local early warning systems should be carefully evaluated: the effectiveness of a threshold model depends on the test site characteristics (including the quality and quantity of the input data), and a validation procedure and a comparison with alternative models should be performed before its implementation in operational early warning systems.

Intensity–duration threshold of rainfall-triggered debris flows in the Wenchuan Earthquake affected area, China

The Ms 8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake has greatly altered the rainfall threshold for debris flows in the affected areas. This study explores the local intensity–duration (I–D) relationship based on 252 post-earthquake debris flows. It was found that I=5.25 D-0.76 accounts for more than 98% of the debris flow occurrences with rainfall duration between 1 and 135h; therefore the curve defines the threshold for debris flows in the study area. This gives much lower thresholds than those proposed by the previous studies, suggesting that the earthquake has greatly decreased the thresholds in the past years. Moreover, the rainfall thresholds appear to increase annually in the period of 2008–2013, and present a logarithmic increasing tendency, indicating that the thresholds will recover in the future decades.

Rainfall thresholds for the occurrence of debris flows in the Jiangjia Gully, Yunnan Province, China

The Jiangjia Gully (JJG), Yunnan Province, China, is one of several debris flow gullies that characterize the topography of mountainous areas in China. Rainfall-triggered debris flows are frequent in the JJG. In order to model and predict these debris flow occurrences, we analyzed precipitation parameters (including intensity–duration thresholds and rainfall event–duration thresholds) that triggered past debris flow events in the JJG. Since the JJG is unique, any model used for predicting debris flows in this gully must be developed using data from only this gully. Furthermore, the effects of normalized precipitation and antecedent precipitation on debris flows in the JJG were considered. Debris flow data and precipitation data were compiled from 47 debris flow events in 1993, 1994, 1998–2001, 2004 and 2006 in JJG. All of these debris flows were triggered following a precipitation event with a duration of 6h or less, with most of the precipitation events exhibiting a duration of 3 to 6h. Only three rainfall events with a duration of less than 1h and average intensity between 1.0 and 42.0mm/h produced debris flows. The 90%, 70% and 50% probability curves for debris flow events were then constructed. Intensity–duration (I–D) and rainfall event–duration (RE–D) thresholds were then used for debris flow modeling based on preliminary tests and comparisons. Antecedent precipitation was found not to be a significant factor in triggering debris flows in the JJG; however, intraday precipitation played a significant role. Normalized precipitation threshold curves from adjacent areas were not well-correlated with the patterns observed in the JJG. Determination of unique thresholds for each gully is necessary for developing an effective prediction system.

Rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for the initiation of landslides in Zhejiang Province, China

Zhejiang Province, located in the southeast coastal region of China, is highly prone to rainfall-triggered landslides because of its geologic, geomorphologic, and climatic settings. The rainfall–landslide relationship is critically important for predicting rainfall-induced landslides. This study defines landslide-triggering rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for the entire Zhejiang region; and the 62 individual areas that comprise the region, based on 1569 shallow landslides which occurred from 1990 to 2013 and their corresponding detail rainfall records from 2457 rain gauges in the region. The results indicate that the rainfall thresholds vary spatially over the region. For rainfall durations from 1 to 24h, the threshold tends to increase from the northwestern part of Zhejiang to its southeastern coastal region; and it is lower in the central and coastal hill–basin regions than that in the western and southern mountainous regions. Variability of the threshold in space is mainly affected by the slope-forming materials and terrain slope gradients. Different soil types have different thresholds, and the thresholds for weathered rock slides are generally higher than those for soil slides. For the soil–weathered rock on slopes, the slope gradient has no obvious influence on the thresholds when the slope angle is <30°; the thresholds have an obviously increasing trend with the increase of slope angles in the range of slope angles from 30 to about 40°; and when slope angle is larger than about 40°, the thresholds rapidly decrease with gradient on the whole. These findings will facilitate the improvement of warning systems for regional rainfall-triggered landslides.

Estimation of debris flow triggering rainfall: Influence of rain gauge density and interpolation methods

The forecast of debris flow occurrence relies mainly on empirical rainfall intensity–duration thresholds, which are based on rain gauge observations. This work focuses on the effect of rainfall estimation uncertainty on the estimation of debris flow triggering rainfall events and on the identification of rainfall thresholds for debris flow occurrence. Specifically, the influence of rain gauge network density and the interpolation method on the estimation of debris flow triggering rainfall is investigated. These questions are examined using high-resolution, carefully corrected radar data to represent space–time patterns of true precipitation at the debris flow initiation points and in the surrounding area. Radar rainfall fields are sampled by simulated rain gauge networks, stochastically generated with varying rain gauge densities. Based on these networks, rainfall is estimated by using three rainfall interpolation methods: nearest neighbor (NN), inverse distance weighting (IDW) and ordinary kriging (OK). Results show that NN provides the estimates with bias smaller than IDW and OK but larger estimation variance. Overall, decrease in gauge density leads to increased underestimation and increased estimation variance of debris flow triggering rainfall. Rainfall estimation error leads to large underestimation of the intensity–duration thresholds. However, comparison of results shows that no particular benefit in intensity–duration threshold estimation is obtained by using approaches that are more complex than the NN method.

Debris flows in the eastern Italian Alps: seasonality and atmospheric circulation patterns

Abstract. The work examines the seasonality and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns associated with debris-flow occurrence in the Trentino–Alto Adige region (eastern Italian Alps). Analysis is based on classification algorithms applied to a uniquely dense archive of debris flows and hourly rain gauge precipitation series covering the period 2000–2009. Results highlight the seasonal and synoptic forcing patterns linked to debris flows in the study area. Summer and fall season account for 92% of the debris flows in the record, while atmospheric circulation characterized by zonal west, mixed and meridional south and southeast (SE–S) patterns account for 80%. Both seasonal and circulation patterns exhibit geographical preference. In the case of seasonality, there is a strong north–south separation of summer–fall dominance, while spatial distribution of dominant circulation patterns exhibits clustering, with both zonal west and mixed patterns prevailing in the northwest and central east part of the region, while the southern part relates to meridional south and southeast pattern. Seasonal and synoptic pattern dependence is pronounced also on the debris-flow-triggering rainfall properties. Examination of rainfall intensity–duration thresholds derived for different data classes (according to season and synoptic pattern) revealed a distinct variability in estimated thresholds. These findings imply a certain control on debris-flow events and can therefore be used to improve existing alert systems.

Susceptibility mapping and estimation of rainfall threshold using space based input for assessment of landslide hazard in Guwahati city in North East India

Abstract. Slopes are the most common landforms in North Eastern Region (NER) of India and because of its relatively immature topography, active tectonics, and intense rainfall activities; the region is susceptible to landslide incidences. The scenario is further aggravated due to unscientific human activities leading to destabilization of slopes. Guwahati, the capital city of Assam also experiences similar hazardous situation especially during monsoon season thus demanding a systematic study towards landslide risk reduction. A systematic assessment of landslide hazard requires understanding of two components, "where" and "when" that landslides may occur. Presently no such system exists for Guwahati city due to lack of landslide inventory data, high resolution thematic maps, DEM, sparse rain gauge network, etc. The present study elucidates the potential of space-based inputs in addressing the problem in absence of field-based observing networks. First, Landslide susceptibility map in 1 : 10,000 scale was derived by integrating geospatial datasets interpreted from high resolution satellite data. Secondly, the rainfall threshold for dynamic triggering of landslide was estimated using rainfall estimates from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis. The 3B41RT data for 1 hourly rainfall estimates were used to make Intensity-Duration plot. Critical rainfall was estimated for every incidence by analysing cumulative rainfall leading to a landslide for total of 19 incidences and an empirical rainfall intensity-duration threshold for triggering shallow debris slides was developed (Intensity = 5.9 Duration-0.479).

Radar rainfall estimation for the identification of debris-flow occurrence thresholds

Summary This work aims to evaluate the potential benefits and limitations of radar rainfall estimates for the identification of debris flow occurrence rainfall thresholds. Observations from a C-band weather radar and raingauge data are analyzed for seven convective rainfall events that triggered 117 debris flows in the Upper Adige river basin (Eastern Italian Alps). Four radar rainfall scenarios characterized by incrementally increasing accuracy are used for the estimation of rainfall intensity–duration thresholds. Error sources considered in the radar correction chain include beam blockage, attenuation and vertical profile of reflectivity. The impact of rainfall accuracy on the estimation of the intensity–duration thresholds is analyzed by comparing the thresholds derived from the various radar rainfall scenarios, using the rainfall estimates obtained from the application of the complete correction algorithm as a reference scenario. Results show that the application of the complete correction algorithm improves significantly the accuracy of radar rainfall estimates: Fractional Standard Error is decreased by 20%, Correlation Coefficient is increased by 24% relative to uncorrected data. Correction for atmospheric attenuation is the most important step in the correction chain. The use of uncorrected radar estimates leads to substantially underestimated thresholds with respect to the reference scenario; adjusting radar data for bias is not sufficient to overcome this problem. Radar rainfall estimates which are corrected but not adjusted with raingauge data are able to provide intensity–duration thresholds which are almost indistinguishable from the reference scenario. The derivation of the radar-based threshold is shown to be very sensitive to spatial location errors of rainfall and debris flows. Raingauge-based thresholds are severely underestimated with respect to the reference scenario. This clearly demonstrates the severity of the raingauge-based estimation problem for the derivation of debris flow triggering rainfall and highlights the benefits of using weather radar observations, at least for the case of short duration convective storms.

Rainfall intensity-duration thresholds and recurrence intervals for shallow landslide occurrences in Mt. Ichifusa and the Abukuma Mountains

Rainfall intensity-duration thresholds and recurrence intervals for shallow landslide occurrences in Mt. Ichifusa and the Abukuma Mountains