Intense Solar Activity Research Articles

Unusual Cosmic Ray Variations During the Forbush Decreases of June 2015

Although the current Solar Cycle 24 is characterized by low solar activity, an intense geomagnetic storm (G4) was recorded in June 2015. It was a complex phenomenon that began on 22 June 2015 as the result of intense solar activity, accompanied by several flares and coronal mass ejections that interacted with the Earth’s magnetic field. A Forbush decrease was also recorded at the neutron monitors of the worldwide network, with an amplitude of 8.4%, and in its recovery phase, a second Forbush decrease followed, with an amplitude of 4.0% for cosmic rays of 10 GV obtained with the global survey method. The Dst index reached a minimum value of −204 nT that was detected on 23 June 2015 at 05:00 – 06:00 UT, while the Kp index reached the value eight. For our analysis, we used hourly cosmic-ray intensity data recorded by polar, mid-, and high-latitude neutron monitor stations obtained from the High Resolution Neutron Monitor Database. The cosmic-ray anisotropy variation at the ecliptic plane was also estimated and was found to be highly complex. We study and discuss the unusual and complex cosmic-ray and geomagnetic response to these solar events.

Schumann resonance parameters at Kuju station during solar flares

We examined the Schumann resonance (SR) at low-latitude station KUJ by comparing with solar X-ray flux and solar proton flux at a geostationary orbit. For intense solar activity in October-November 2003, the reaction of the SR frequency to X-ray enhancement and SPEs was different. The SR frequency in H component increased at the time of the Xray enhancement. The response of SR seems to be caused by the increase of the electron density in the ionospheric D region which ionized by the enhanced solar X-ray flux. In the case of the SPEs, the SR frequency in D component decreased with enhancement of solar proton flux. We suggest that the SPEs caused the decrease of altitude on the ionopheric D region at high-latitude region, and the SR frequency decreased.

The effects of solar activity: Electrons in the terrestrial lower ionosphere

Solar flare X-ray energy can cause strong enhancements of the electron density in the Earth’s atmosphere. This intense solar radiation and activity can cause sudden ionospheric disturbances (SIDs) and further create ground telecommunication interferences, blackouts as well as some natural disasters and caused considerable material damage. The focus of this contribution is on the study of these changes induced by solar X-ray flares using narrowband Very Low Frequency (VLF, 3–30 kHz) and Low Frequency (LF, 30–300 kHz) radio signal analysis. The model computation and simulation were applied to acquire the electron density enhancement induced by intense solar radiation. The obtained results confirmed the successful use of applied technique for detecting space weather phenomena such as solar explosive events as well for describing and modeling the ionospheric electron density which are important as the part of electric terrestrial-conductor environment through which external-solar wind (SW) electrons can pass and cause natural disasters on the ground like fires.

Historical Auroras in the 990s: Evidence of Great Magnetic Storms

Recently, a significant carbon-14 enhancement in the year 994 in tree rings has been found, suggesting an extremely large cosmic ray flux event during a short period. The origin of this particular cosmic ray event has not been confirmed, but one possibility is that it is of solar origin. Contemporary historical records of low latitude auroras can be used as supporting evidence for intense solar activity around that time. We investigated the previously reported as well as the new records found in contemporary observations from the 990s to determine potential auroras. Records of potential red auroras in the late 992 and early 993 were found around the world, i.e. in the Korean Peninsula, Germany, and the Island of Ireland, suggesting the occurrence of an intense geomagnetic storm driven by solar activity.

Solar energetic particle interactions with the Venusian atmosphere

Abstract. In the context of planetary space weather, we estimate the ion production rates in the Venusian atmosphere due to the interactions of solar energetic particles (SEPs) with gas. The assumed concept for our estimations is based on two cases of SEP events, previously observed in near-Earth space: the event in October 1989 and the event in May 2012. For both cases, we assume that the directional properties of the flux and the interplanetary magnetic field configuration would have allowed the SEPs' arrival at Venus and their penetration to the planet's atmosphere. For the event in May 2012, we consider the solar particle properties (integrated flux and rigidity spectrum) obtained by the Neutron Monitor Based Anisotropic GLE Pure Power Law (NMBANGLE PPOLA) model (Plainaki et al., 2010, 2014) applied previously for the Earth case and scaled to the distance of Venus from the Sun. For the simulation of the actual cascade in the Venusian atmosphere initiated by the incoming particle fluxes, we apply the DYASTIMA code, a Monte Carlo (MC) application based on the Geant4 software (Paschalis et al., 2014). Our predictions are afterwards compared to other estimations derived from previous studies and discussed. Finally, we discuss the differences between the nominal ionization profile due to galactic cosmic-ray–atmosphere interactions and the profile during periods of intense solar activity, and we show the importance of understanding space weather conditions on Venus in the context of future mission preparation and data interpretation.

Predicting Solar Cycle 24 Using a Geomagnetic Precursor Pair

We describe using Ap and F10.7 as a geomagnetic-precursor pair to predict the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24. The precursor is created by using F10.7 to remove the direct solar-activity component of Ap. Four peaks are seen in the precursor function during the decline of Solar Cycle 23. A recurrence index that is generated by a local correlation of Ap is then used to determine which peak is the correct precursor. The earliest peak is the most prominent but coincides with high levels of non-recurrent solar activity associated with the intense solar activity of October and November 2003. The second and third peaks coincide with some recurrent activity on the Sun and show that a weak cycle precursor closely following a period of strong solar activity may be difficult to resolve. A fourth peak, which appears in early 2008 and has recurrent activity similar to precursors of earlier solar cycles, appears to be the “true” precursor peak for Solar Cycle 24 and predicts the smallest amplitude for Solar Cycle 24. To determine the timing of peak activity it is noted that the average time between the precursor peak and the following maximum is ≈ 6.4 years. Hence, Solar Cycle 24 would peak during 2014. Several effects contribute to the smaller prediction when compared with other geomagnetic-precursor predictions. During Solar Cycle 23 the correlation between sunspot number and F10.7 shows that F10.7 is higher than the equivalent sunspot number over most of the cycle, implying that the sunspot number underestimates the solar-activity component described by F10.7. During 2003 the correlation between aa and Ap shows that aa is 10 % higher than the value predicted from Ap, leading to an overestimate of the aa precursor for that year. However, the most important difference is the lack of recurrent activity in the first three peaks and the presence of significant recurrent activity in the fourth. While the prediction is for an amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 of 65±20 in smoothed sunspot number, a below-average amplitude for Solar Cycle 24, with maximum at 2014.5±0.5, we conclude that Solar Cycle 24 will be no stronger than average and could be much weaker than average.

Flowering of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica in NW Mediterranean: is there a link with solar activity?

Time series on the leaf biometry and rhizome production of the endemic Mediterranean seagrass Posidonia oceanica (L.) Delile were investigated in a meadow of the Ligurian Sea (NW Mediterranean) in order to assess changes in the plant growth during a massive flowering event occurred in 2003, in coincidence with the warmest summer temperatures recorded in the last centuries. P. oceanica exhibited the highest values of leaf surface area during the flowering year and the highest values of rhizome production in the previous year. The years immediately following the flowering event were characterized by a decrease in both parameters. Comparison of the years of massive flowering events reported in the literature at the whole Mediterranean-wide spatial scale with the historical series (spanning the last 50 years) of the air temperature and of the sunspot number suggested that intense solar activity, and not warmer temperature per se, was likely to be the main trigger of massive flowering events in Posidonia oceanica.

Application of Grey Theory to Ionospheric Short-term Forecasting

By analysis of historical data of the ionosphere, it is suggested to apply grey theory to ionospheric short-term forecasting, grey range information entropy is defined to determine the optimum grey length of the sample sequence, the prediction model based on residual error is constructed, and the observation data of multiple ionospheric observation stations in China are adopted for test. The prediction result indicates that the average grey range information entropy calculation results reflect the cyclical effects of solar rotation, precision of the forecasting method in high latitudes is higher than low latitudes, and its error is large relatively in more intense solar activity season, the effect of forecasting 1 day in advance of average relative residuals are less than 1 MHz, the average precision is more than 90%. It provides a new way of thinking for the ionospheric foF2 short-term forecast in the future.

Variation of F-region critical frequency (foF2) over equatorial and low-latitude region of the Indian zone during 19th and 20th solar cycle

The effect of solar cycle and seasons on the daytime and nighttime F-layer ionization has been investigated over the equatorial and low-latitude region during 19th (1954–1964) and 20th (1965–1976) solar cycle. The F-layer critical frequency (foF2) data observed from the three Indian Ionosonde stations has been used for the present study. The dependence of foF2 on solar cycle has been examined by performing regression analysis between the foF2 values and R 12 (twelve month running average sunspot number). The result shows that the magnitude of the cycle, seasons and the location of station has considerable effects on foF2. There is a significant nonlinear relationship between the foF2 values and R 12 during 19th solar cycle as compared to 20th solar cycle. Further, the nighttime saturation effect is prominently seen during the 19th solar cycle and summer season. It is also observed that the most profound saturation effect appears at the equatorial ionization anomaly crest region. Seasonally, it is seen that all the stations exhibits semiannual anomaly. The phenomenon of winter anomaly decays as we move higher along the latitude and is prominently seen during the intense solar activity.

Using a new set of space-borne particle monitors to investigate solar-terrestrial relations

Context. We investigated the solar origin of Solar Particle Events (SPEs) which occurred during four time periods of the 23rd solar cycle with intense solar activity and were detected by the Standard Radiation Environment Monitor (SREM) onboard the INTEGRAL satellite. SREM is a second generation ESA particle radiation monitor, already flying onboard seven spacecraft.Aims. The present study attempts to establish the association of recorded SPEs by INTEGRAL/SREM with their solar sources and hence evaluate the potential of SREM units as an alarm system for hazardous SPEs.Methods. X-ray, optical and radio data of solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that were observed by several space-based instruments during the aforementioned solar cycle were reduced and thoroughly analyzed to establish the corresponding solar origin of the selected SPEs.Results. The analysis produced clear associations with X-class solar flares and respective CMEs for the events of the October–November 2003, January 2005 and December 2006 periods, while for the events that occurred during September 2005, associations with X-class flares are possible but not straightforward due to the complexity of the registered solar particle fluxes.Conclusions. SREM proves to be a new valuable asset for a comprehensive study of SPEs and a useful alert instrument for explosive geoeffective solar events.

ENERGETIC PARTICLE OBSERVATIONS AND PROPAGATION IN THE THREE-DIMENSIONAL HELIOSPHERE DURING THE 2006 DECEMBER EVENTS

We report observations of solar energetic particles obtained by the HI-SCALE and COSPIN/LET instruments onboard Ulysses during the period of isolated but intense solar activity in 2006 December, in the declining phase of the solar activity cycle. We present measurements of particle intensities and also discuss observations of particle anisotropies and composition in selected energy ranges. Active Region 10930 produced a series of major solar flares with the strongest one (X9.0) recorded on December 5 after it rotated into view on the solar east limb. Located over the South Pole of the Sun, at >72°S heliographic latitude and 2.8 AU radial distance, Ulysses provided unique measurements for assessing the nature of particle propagation to high latitudes under near-minimum solar activity conditions, in a relatively undisturbed heliosphere. The observations seem to exclude the possibility that magnetic field lines originating at low latitudes reached Ulysses, suggesting either that the energetic particles observed as large solar energetic particle (SEP) events over the South Pole of the Sun in 2006 December were released when propagating coronal waves reached high-latitude field lines connected to Ulysses, or underwent perpendicular diffusion. We also discuss comparisons with energetic particle data acquired by the STEREO and Advanced Composition Explorer in the ecliptic plane near 1 AU during this period.

Light sterile neutrinos, spin flavor precession, and the solar neutrino experiments

We generalize to three active flavors a previous two-flavor model for the resonant spin flavor conversion of solar neutrinos to sterile ones, a mechanism which is added to the well-known large mixing angle (LMA) one. The transition magnetic moments from the muon and tau neutrinos to the sterile play the dominant role in fixing the amount of active flavor suppression. We also show, through numerical integration of the evolution equations, that the data from all solar neutrino experiments except Borexino exhibit a clear preference for a sizable magnetic field either in the convection zone or in the core and radiation zone. This is possibly related to the fact that the data from the first set are average ones taken during a period of mostly intense solar activity, whereas in contrast Borexino data were taken during a period of quiet Sun. We argue that the solar neutrino experiments are capable of tracing the possible modulation of the solar magnetic field. Those monitoring the high-energy neutrinos, namely, the $^{8}\mathrm{B}$ flux, appear to be sensitive to a field modulation either in the convection zone or in the core and radiation zone. Those monitoring the low-energy fluxes will be sensitive to the second type of solar field profiles only. In this way Borexino alone may play an essential role, since it examines both energy sectors, although experimental redundancy from other experiments will be most important.

Lower polar ionosphere during a solar flare as revealed from radiooccultation data in satellite-to-satellite links

It is shown that there are typical variations in the amplitude and phase of decimetric radio waves in satellite-to-satellite links due to variations in the polar ionosphere structure. The altitude profiles of the electron number density and vertical size of the ionospheric sporadic structures in the nighttime polar regions during the period of intense solar activity in October 25 to November 09, 2003 are estimated. Correlation between the the ionosphere characteristics and the solar-wind parameters is discussed. It is noted that the effect of energetic-particle precipitation due to the influence of shock waves of the solar wind is the main factor responsible for strong variations in the nighttime polar ionosphere.

Bracing for a solor superstorm

The article discusses solar superstorms, rare bursts of intense solar activity which hit the earth with a blast of solar particles. One recorded in 1859 created intense aurora light effects as far south as the Caribbean, and wreaked havoc with magnetic compasses and electric telegraph systems. The importance of guarding satellites and the power grid against major damage from such an event is emphasized. INSETS: Impact of a Coronal Mass Ejection;The 1859 Superstorm;IT'S RAINING PROTONS.

Energetic particle measurements from the <I>Ulysses</I>/COSPIN/LET instrument obtained during the August/September 2005 events

Abstract. We report recent observations of energetic particles at energies 1–40 MeV/n made by the COSPIN/LET instrument onboard the Ulysses spacecraft during the period of intense solar activity in August/September 2005 during the declining phase of solar cycle 23. Ulysses, having started its climb to high southern latitudes for the third time, was located at ~5 AU, at a helio-latitude of ~30 degrees south. It detected the arrival of a solar wind compound stream resulting from the merging of a series of fast halo CMEs ejected from the Sun in late August and early September 2005 and their interaction with the pre-existing pattern of solar wind Stream Interaction Regions (SIRs) in the ambient medium through which they propagated. The heavy ion intensities are observed by COSPIN/LET to remain elevated for at least 20 days following the very intense X17.0/3B solar flare on 7 September and its associated very fast CME (plane of sky projected CME speed ~2400 km s−1). We carry out an analysis of the composition of the particle increases observed at the location of the spacecraft. Although the composition signatures were predominantly Solar Energetic Particle (SEP)-like, after the passage of the compound stream over Ulysses, in association with a characteristic forward and reverse shock pair, the observations showed evidence of an enhanced He content.

SNO+: predictions from standard solar models and resonant spin flavour precession

Time variability of the solar neutrino flux especially in the low and intermediate energy sector remains an open question and, if it exists, it is likely to be originated from the magnetic moment transition from active to light sterile neutrinos at times of intense solar activity and magnetic field. We examine the prospects for the SNO+ experiment to address this important issue and to distinguish between the two classes of solar models which are currently identified as corresponding to a high (SSM I) and a low (SSM II) heavy element abundance. We also evaluate the predictions from these two models for the Chlorine experiment event rate in the standard LMA and LMA+Resonant Spin Flavour Precession (RSFP) scenarios. It is found that after three years of SNO+ data taking, the pep flux measurement will be able to discriminate between the standard LMA and LMA+RSFP scenarios, independently of which is the correct solar model. If the LMA rate is measured, RSFP with B0 ∼ 280kG can be excluded at more than 4σ. A low rate would signal new physics, excluding all the 90% allowed range of the standard LMA solution at 3σ, and a time variability would be a strong signature of the RSFP model. The CNO fluxes are the ones for which the two SSM predictions exhibit the largest differences, so their measurement at SNO+ will be important to favour one or the other. The distinction will be clearer after LMA or RSFP are confirmed with pep, but still, a CNO measurement at the level of SSM I/LMA will disfavour SSM II at about 3 σ. We conclude that consistency between future pep and CNO flux measurements at SNO+ and Chlorine would either favour an LMA+RSFP scenario or favour SSM II over SSM I.

Cosmic Ray Radiation Effects on Space Environment Associated to Intense Solar and Geomagnetic Activity

Intense cosmic ray fluxes during Forbush decreases can be responsible for a number of radiation effects in electronics and sensor systems of spacecrafts and aircrafts. Monitoring, modeling and possible prediction, from the real-time database of the Athens Neutron Monitor Data Processing (ANMODAP) Center are being considered. A different kind of cosmic ray events that evolves during a Forbush decrease, as an additional intermediate enhancement and its impact on electronic systems, is also identified.

Energetic particle observations by Ulysses during the declining phase of solar cycle 23

We present recent energetic particle measurements from 1–20 MeV/n recorded by the Ulysses/COSPIN/LET instrument from mid‐October to the end of November 2003 and from May 2004 to the end of February 2005. Long‐lasting periods with enhanced solar activity occurred during the declining phase of the current solar cycle contributing to the high‐intensity particle events and heavy ion signatures observed by Ulysses near the ecliptic plane, at ∼5 AU from the Sun. The energetic particles injected from the Sun during the January 2005 intense solar activity were not observed at Ulysses until a stream interface that acted as a barrier for the particles reached the spacecraft. Our observations during this period thus show that the propagation of energetic particles is largely governed by the existence of large‐scale solar wind structures that impede the transport of the particles. We use the elemental composition of the particle fluxes recorded by COSPIN/LET to gain insight into the possible origin of the particle events. We study and provide a possible interpretation of the composition signatures observed at ∼5 AU during periods of CME/CIR combinations. Although predominantly SEP‐like, the observed composition showed evidence for enhancements in He, which we suggest is of interstellar origin, consistent with CIR shocks accelerating ions from multiple sources.

Predictions of Intense Solar Activity Needed

Many of the sophisticated modeling efforts of the Sun-to-Earth system currently underway do not address some very important impacts of the Sun on terrestrial technologies. Thus, there is a serious need for more detailed models and improved predictions of intense solar activity. This gap in current capabilities of predicting the intensity of solar activity–especially the intensities of solar X-ray and radio bursts–was spectacularly illustrated in December 2006 during the passage of solar active region 0930 across the Sun. The solar radio burst at about 1900 UT on 6 December lasted for more than an hour, is reported to have been one of the largest (if not the largest) bursts ever recorded at gigahertz frequencies, and caused havoc for GPS measurements on Earth. Accompanying the solar burst was one of the largest increases in solar electron fluxes observed at the L1 ACE spacecraft in the past decade or more. If the active region at the time of the solar burst was more centered in the direction of the Earth, a coronal mass ejection with a resulting huge magnetic disturbance with resulting technology impacts might have been expected at Earth. As it was, the technologies largely affected were GPS receivers and other receiving systems such as radars oriented slightly towards the Sun (including possibly some cellular phone cell sites, a situation still under investigation by researchers). None of these effects are addressed by most current modeling of the Sun-Earth system. Just because the effects from this event were limited to certain technologies and did not generate a large magnetic storm (which is what most space weather modeling is currently directed toward) does not make this solar event less important for space weather researchers, modelers, and system operators. Rather, it clearly points out that considerably more research and understanding are needed to predict the types of solar activity that can produce so unexpectedly the intense electromagnetic emissions observed on 6 December. Like large magnetic storms, we now know first hand that these types of events can also affect important navigation and communications technologies at essentially the same moment (just the light travel time) when the solar event is first observed at Earth. Louis J. Lanzerotti is editor of Space Weather, a distinguished research professor at the New Jersey Institute of Technology, and a consultant at Alcatel-Lucent Technologies’ Bell Laboratories.

Latest results on Jovian disk X-rays from XMM-Newton

We present the results of a spectral study of the soft X-ray emission (0.2–2.5 keV) from low-latitude (‘disk’) regions of Jupiter. The data were obtained during two observing campaigns with XMM-Newton in April and November 2003. While the level of the emission remained approximately the same between April and the first half of the November observation, the second part of the latter shows an enhancement by about 40% in the 0.2–2.5 keV flux. A very similar, and apparently correlated increase, in time and scale, was observed in the solar X-ray and EUV flux. The months of October and November 2003 saw a period of particularly intense solar activity, which appears reflected in the behavior of the soft X-rays from Jupiter's disk. The X-ray spectra, from the XMM-Newton EPIC CCD cameras, are all well fitted by a coronal model with temperatures in the range 0.4–0.5 keV, with additional line emission from Mg XI (1.35 keV) and Si XIII (1.86 keV): these are characteristic lines of solar X-ray spectra at maximum activity and during flares. The XMM-Newton observations lend further support to the theory that Jupiter's disk X-ray emission is controlled by the Sun, and may be produced in large part by scattering, elastic and fluorescent, of solar X-rays in the upper atmosphere of the planet.