Intended Nationally Determined Contributions Research Articles

Carbon emissions in countries that failed to ratify the intended nationally determined contributions: A case study of Kyrgyzstan

The Paris Agreement aims to increase global participation in climate change actions, yet attentions are not equally given among countries. The knowledge gap remains in understanding the structure and drivers of the emission in small developing countries. Eighteen countries have failed to ratify their Intended National Determined Contributions (INDCs) as an officially recognized emission target. Among these countries, we chose Kyrgyzstan as a case to construct its emission inventories from both production-based and consumption-based perspectives and to identify the drivers of emission changes using structural decomposition analysis (SDA). The empirical results revealed that CO2 emissions in Kyrgyzstan depicted a wavelike rise from 2007 to 2015, whilst the production structure contributed to 14% of the production-based CO2 emission growth from 2012 to 2015. As a net emission importer, Kyrgyzstan transferred large quantities of CO2 emissions to China and Russia through imports. However, if all manufacturing imports were produced within Kyrgyzstan, the emission would be over five times compared to the current level. It is helpful to reduce global emissions for Kyrgyzstan to import goods from other countries whose carbon intensities are lower. Overall, this study highlights the need to focus on these countries' failure to ratify INDCs while calling the Paris Agreement to provide a better understanding and mitigation mechanism for these small developing countries.

India’s INDC for Transport and 2 °C Stabilization Target

Transport sector accounted for 13 % of India's energy-related CO2 emissions. India's Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) specify an economy wide decarbonization target of 33 to 35 % between 2005 and 2030 and includes announcements for urban transport, intercity transportation infrastructures, sustainable logistics and inland waterways to achieve these reductions. The Paris agreement that followed the announcement of the INDC increased the global ambition to stabilize the greenhouse gases so that maximum temperature rise is limited to 2 ?C with an enhanced ambition for 1.5 ?C. The paper analyses how far INDC will reduce the emissions from transport and to what extent a 2 ?C temperature stabilization goal will decarbonize the transport sector. The analysis is carried out using ANSWER MARKAL model for evaluating the energy system in combination with a transport demand module to model future scenarios for India till year 2050. Three scenarios are explored in this paper: i) a business-As-usual scenario ii) an INDC scenario iii) implementation of INDC in a strong climate regime aiming for the 2 oC target. The assessment shows that CO2 reductions from transport would happen through a wide portfolio of options. The highest mitigation is achieved through sustainable mobility strategies, followed by fuel economy standards. Electric vehicles offer significant mitigation benefits, however these are more significant post 2030.

Assessing the contribution of harvested wood products under greenhouse gas estimation: accounting under the Paris Agreement and the potential for double-counting among the choice of approaches

BackgroundThere are multiple approaches for estimating emissions and removals arising from harvested wood products (HWP) based on differences between when and where a given carbon stock change is calculated. At this moment, countries are free to use any HWP approach to prepare their annual greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory and determine emission reduction targets for their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), although under the Paris Agreement (PA), the production approach is used for standard reporting in GHG inventories. Global double-counting and non-counting of HWP might occur depending on the HWP approach each country uses; however, the impact of such double-counting and non-counting has not been thoroughly evaluated.ResultsWe identified all cases of global double-counting and non-counting of HWP for combinations of the six HWP approaches: ‘instantaneous oxidation’, ‘stock-change’, ‘production’, ‘stock-changes approach for HWP of domestic origin (SCAD)’, ‘simple-decay’ and ‘atmospheric-flow’ approaches. In Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), forest land is often partly or completely excluded, especially by developing countries. In such cases, HWP approaches that require comprehensive national data on wood harvesting and trade are not suitable for estimating HWP contributions. In addition, most developing countries apply the ‘instantaneous oxidation’ at the time of harvesting. Recent GHG inventories from Annex I countries show the averaged contribution of annual HWP emissions or removals to national total emissions is nearly 1%; therefore, the potential contribution of HWP to the accounted emission reduction volume is assumed to be a smaller value.ConclusionsInstantaneous oxidation remains a pragmatic approach for countries in which wood production is not a dominant part of the economy. The combination of ‘instantaneous oxidation’ with the ‘production’, ‘SCAD’ or ‘simple-decay’ approaches could be a practical solution to realize a global HWP accounting approach the eliminates double-counting. Regardless of how global double-counting and non-counting occur, the amount is not large. To improve the accuracy of the global assessment, it is important to reduce the uncertainty of estimation regarding when and how much HWP-related emissions occur at national level.

CO2 Mitigation in the Power Sector of Thailand: Analyses of Cleaner Supply-side Options Beyond the Paris Agreement

Background: The drastically increasing share of fossil fuel supply to meet the rapidly growing electricity demand resulting in increasing Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, is the major concern in Thailand. In 2015, fossil fuels used in electricity generation in Thailand accounted for around 85.3% of the total electricity generation. Aim: The aim of the study is to analyze carbon dioxide mitigation options under the cleaner supply-side option beyond the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) of Thailand. Methods: In this study, the Long-range Energy Planning (LEAP) model is used to analyze the share of electricity generation and CO2 mitigation from four main different scenarios, namely Business-as-Usual (BAU), Renewable Energy (RE), Carbon Capture Storage (CCS), and Carbon Tax (CT) scenarios during 2015 to 2050. The BAU scenario is constructed following the power development targets of the Power Development Plan in 2015. Results: The results illustrate that in the BAU scenario, electricity generation and carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector will increase by 57.7% and 37.3%, respectively in 2050 as compared to 2015. The imposition of carbon tax of $20/tCO2 from 2020 and an increase to $500/t CO2 by 2050 will have a high potential to reduce CO2 emissions from the power sector as compared with other scenarios. Conclusion: Results show that except for the RE scenarios considering the lower share of solar and biomass, all scenarios would help Thailand in achieving the target of INDC by 2030. Results provide that the share of imported electricity is higher with the imposition of carbon tax as compared to the scenarios with the promotion of renewable energy, CCS and EV technology.

India Wind Energy Auctions – The Way Forward

As part of its commitments in Conference of Parties (COP21), India under Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) (40% from renewables by 2030) plans to establish a total capacity of 175GW renewables by 2022, of which at least 100 Gigawatt (GW) would be solar, 60 GW wind, 5 GW small hydro and 10 GW from biomass [1]. Wind energy installation and generation had taken an early start in India and we already had an installed capacity of about 30 GW by 2016. This paper, discusses the impact of the important decision taken by Government of India in 2016 with regards to fading away of Feed in Tariff (FiT) regime and bringing in competitive bidding in wind energy in the country and tries to assess whether it was the right decision or not and what further steps should be done to ensure that the underlying objective of this transition is fully met. A total capacity of 12.5GW + has been allocated in various central and state government auctions and a detailed analysis in respect of the implementation status and applicable commissioning timelines for the same has been brought out. Further, an analysis has been done to highlight the challenges faced by Wind Power Developers (WPD’s) in the timely implementation of the allocated projects. This study brings out the recommendations in regards to changes to be made in the policy, guidelines and tenders to have a sustainable wind energy industry which is a win-win for the government through capacity additions at required pace & competitive tariffs and an economically beneficial ecosystem for both WPD’s and Wind Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs). Since the impact of wind energy auctions is still being analyzed, this may be one of the first papers and result in setting up of precedent for future papers & numerous case studies revolving around a specific wind power project.

Sharing the costs and benefits of climate change mitigation via Shapley value.

This paper examines the free rider problem that exists in the joint effort to mitigate climate change. There is a need to develop a model that is stable and that provides evidence of an objective burden sharing rule so that the environmental agreement is more acceptable. This study approaches this problem via a cooperative game at the global level to make International Environmental Agreements (IEA) more stable. For this purpose, we apply the Shapley value transfer mechanism and find that under the commitment scenario, some regions attain the maximum benefits by joining the coalition. Shapley value transfer improves the coalition size and increases the global benefits at a certain level of abatement under perfect cooperation. Imperfect cooperation leads to lower levels of global benefits. Our findings offer new implications on how to improve the international cooperation for climate change. Commitments by major regions could activate the IEA (e.g., Paris agreement) efficiently. For the maximum global response to climate change, the national governments must reformulate and implement policies to meet their intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs). The results of this study also help the national governments to set their implementation priorities to implement the Paris Accord at global level.

Carbon footprint accounts of Pakistan: an input-output life cycle assessment model.

The Paris agreement (2015) seems a significant achievement towards a global mitigation policy to climate change. However, implementing the promised Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) targets by the participating countries has become a real challenge. In this aspect, the input-output life cycle assessment (IO-LCA) model provides an important assessment mechanism to design suitable abatement policies limiting the rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The present paper develops an IO-LCA model for Pakistan and estimates all the direct and indirect GHG emissions caused by all the production activities during all the stages of production. This task is achieved in three phases. In phase 1, the Pakistan input-output table (IOT) is constructed. In phase 2, the GHG environmental satellite accounts are created for each sector in the economy. In phase 3, the GHG emissions are linked to different categories of final demand.

Forecasting of Turkey's greenhouse gas emissions using linear and nonlinear rolling metabolic grey model based on optimization

Abstract This study aims to contribute to the development of energy policies for Turkey's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the future. For this purpose, linear and nonlinear metabolic grey models are combined with the optimization technique to obtain more accurate forecasting results. Optimization technique provides estimation of the parameters in metabolic grey model (MGM(1,1)) and nonlinear metabolic grey model (NMGM(1,1)). In this study, MGM(1,1), NMGM(1,1), optimized metabolic grey model OMGM(1,1), and optimized nonlinear metabolic grey model (ONMGM(1,1)) are applied for prediction of Turkey's GHG emissions including the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF), excluding LULUCF and from the energy sector. The ONMGM(1,1) gives more accurate results than the others from 1995 to 2016. The MAPE values of the ONMGM(1,1) are 4.80%, 4.14% and 5.19% for Turkey's GHG emissions with LULUCF, without LULUCF and from the energy sector, respectively. On the other hand, results of the ONMGM(1,1) show that the annual growth rates are forecasted as 0.56%, 0.66% and 0.49% for Turkey's GHG emissions with LULUCF, without LULUCF and from the energy sector, respectively, from 2017 to 2025. Furthermore, Turkey's highest GHG emissions with LULUCF, without LULUCF and from the energy sector are estimated by MGM(1,1) as 606.9 Mt of CO2 equivalent, 726.4 Mt of CO2 equivalent and 585.2 Mt of CO2 equivalent in 2025, respectively. According to Turkey's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), target of its GHG emissions including LULUCF is estimated as 934 Mt of CO2 equivalent in a Business-As-Usual scenario and 790 Mt of CO2 equivalent in a Mitigation scenario for the year 2025. Therefore, this study presents lower values of Turkey's GHG emissions with LULUCF than the values of Turkey's INDC for the year 2025. Additionally, results of this study present that energy sector has the largest share of Turkey's GHG emissions from 2017 to 2025. Therefore, Turkish Government should develop policies to use energy more efficiently and to increase the capacity of renewable energy sources in electricity generation. Especially, Turkey's ambition to increase the share of renewable energy in total is very assertive. This can be seen from the Turkey's 11th Development Plan. According to the Plan, the share of total renewable energy and natural gas in total electricity generation is going to be increased from 32.5% in 2018 to 38.8% in 2023 and to be decreased from 29.85% in 2018 to 20.7% in 2023, respectively.

Assessment of the carbon emissions reduction potential of China's iron and steel industry based on a simulation analysis

This study provides a feasible approach for decreasing the carbon emissions of China's iron and steel industry (ISI) by 2030 using the environmental-economic simulation model. The ISI and its upstream industries are optimized by introducing both technological upgrades and environmental policies. Six scenarios are designed, including business-as-usual (BaU), industrial upgrades (tec), carbon tax (tax), carbon trading (tra), and combination (cob) 1 and cob2, which combine the tec, tax and tra scenarios. The results show that the tec scenario can effectively curb carbon emissions. The tax scenario significantly promotes low emissions technologies. The cob2 scenario has the most stringent carbon emissions control effect and helps the ISI meet the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) target of China. Moreover, the rates of carbon emissions increase under the tec, cob1, and cob2 scenarios will decrease after 2027, indicating that it is highly possible that carbon emissions will peak in 2030. The decrease in crude steel production and electricity demand is also essential for the carbon emissions reduction of the ISI. This research comprehensively analyzes the factors influencing carbon emissions from the Chinese ISI. Analyzing this issue from the industrial chain perspective provides a new research scope for future simulation model studies.

Heat Stress Response to National-Committed Emission Reductions under the Paris Agreement.

With the changes in global temperature and humidity, heat stress is expected to intensify in the coming decades. Under the scenario that greenhouse gas emissions keep increasing until the end of this century, there is the possibility of extensive global exposure to high heat stress. While under new mitigation efforts (as part of the Paris Agreement, signatory nations pledged to implement the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) for emission reductions), the regional response of heat stress to pledged emission reductions remains unclear. In this study, we analyze the heat stress response in global hotspot regions, targeting emission scenarios resulting from the INDCs pledges. Our study revealed that under the INDCs-continuous mitigation, the heat stress effect in global hotspot regions (North China, South Asia, and the Amazon) is estimated to be lower than 29 °C in the next three decades and to be from >33 °C to less than 30 °C to this century end. The heat stress effect indicates a great reduction at the continuous mitigation compared with the delayed mitigation, and the population exposed to dangerous heat stress would also decrease approximately one order of magnitude. If limiting warming to a lesser amount (1.5/2 °C targets), significantly further reduction of the population exposed to heat stress in the middle and low latitudes can be achieved, thus avoiding the adverse effects associated with heat stress. Therefore, the national intended mitigation actions under the Paris Agreement will play a crucial role in reducing the heat stress risk in these hot and humid regions. These findings will help to improve the understanding of the future risks of heat stress and are crucial for mitigation and adaptation actions in hotspot areas (approximately 1/3 of the world’s population).

Climate governance in Turkey: a forward-looking perspective

ABSTRACTThis paper aims to examine four dimensions of the climate governance issue in Turkey: legislation; institutional capacity; mitigation and adaptation; and the role of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC). After conceptualizing the concept of climate governance and identifying its components, the current situation of each dimension will be analyzed, along with its shortcomings and the uncertainties concerning climate governance. The challenges of the current system will then be discussed on the basis of these dimensions. Finally, based on the findings, a forward-looking perspective will suggest ways to eliminate the existing shortcomings and improve climate governance in Turkey.

The global carbon budget and the Paris agreement

Purpose The main purpose of this paper is to introduce the concept of global carbon budget (GCB) as a key concept that should be introduced as a reference when countries formulate their mitigation contributions in the context of the Paris Agreement and in all the monitoring, reporting and verification processes that must be implemented according to the decisions of the Paris Summit. Design/methodology/approach A method based on carbon budget accounting is used to analyze the intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) submitted by the 15 countries that currently head the ranking of global emissions. Moreover, these INDCs are analyzed and compared with each other. Sometimes, inadequate methodologies and a diverse level of ambition in the formulated targets are observed. Findings It is found that the INDCs of those 15 countries alone imply the release into the atmosphere of 84 per cent of the GCB for the period 2011-2030, and 40 per cent of the GCB available until the end of the century. Originality/value This is the first time the INDCs of the top 15 emitters are analyzed. It is also the first analysis made using the GCB approach. This paper suggests methodological changes in the way that the future NDCs might be formulated.

Population health impacts of China's climate change policies

Rapid and wide-ranging reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are required to meet the climate targets agreed upon at the 2015 Paris climate conference. There will be significant transition risks for health, livelihoods, and ecosystems associated with large-scale mitigation, but also opportunities. The aim of this study was to investigate the impacts, positive and negative, of climate policies on population health in China. We review the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) that China took to the Paris meeting, link commitments in the INDC to national planning documents relevant to environment and health, and search the literature for Chinese publications on health trade-offs and synergies. Synergies are evident in the measures taken to reduce local air pollution in China: controls on coal burning have materially improved local air quality and benefited health. But there may be risks to health also, depending on how policies are implemented and what safeguards are provided. To date most assessments of the health impacts of climate policies in China have been modelling studies. We recommend work of this kind is complemented by observational research to identify unexpected impacts and vulnerabilities. It will become even more important to undertake this work as emission reductions accelerate to meet the Paris climate targets.

Committing to the Climate: A Global Study of Accountable Climate Targets

The Paris Agreement has been described by many as a historical event, a turning point in the United Nations’ climate negotiations. Its success is often attributed to the intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs), in which countries have committed themselves to individually set targets in order to reduce emissions. However, it still remains to be agreed upon how to review and compare countries’ efforts, as outlined in the INDCs (and at later stages in the nationally determined contributions—NDCs). In this paper we suggest (and construct) a simple quantitative measure which is transparent, ensures valid comparison over time, and which can be determined for a large share of countries; a comparable indicator of country commitments in terms of so called accountable climate targets (ACTs). This indicator is then combined with a global data set of political–institutional, economic and geographic variables to understand more about which factors may affect country commitments. The results from multivariate probability unit (probit) regressions show that egalitarian principles, as well as GDP per capita, tend to be positively associated with climate commitments, while a negative association is found for CO2 emissions per capita.

Adoption of green practices throughout the supply chain: an empirical investigation

PurposeThere is a dichotomy in the actual and expected environmental performances of the Indian enterprises even though the Indian enterprises have aligned their businesses with intended nationally determined contributions (INDC) targets. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the supply chain of Indian enterprises to understand influences to adopt green practices throughout the supply chains, and how these green practices influence economic, operational and environmental performances to reveal the underlying currents explaining difference in actual and expected performance.Design/methodology/approachFive research propositions are developed based on the existing literature. Data are collected from 233 ceramic enterprises in India. Exploratory factor analysis has been done to test construct validity and correlation. Confirmatory factor analysis is used to check unidimensionality of constructs. Structural equation modeling is used to test the strength and direction of the relations between the constructs and to develop the model.FindingsThe findings of the study suggest that the Indian companies have aligned their businesses with INDC targets but they have not adopted the green practices in inbound and outbound supply chains; therefore, the actual environmental performance is not as expected. Other major finding is that the enterprise and government are not focusing on the informative pressure and instead the focus is on coercive techniques which are not yielding positive results. The statistical results show that the adoption of green practices led to the improvements in environmental and operational performances but reduction in economic performance.Originality/valueThis paper has analyzed green supply chain management pressure, practice and performance measure for Indian ceramic enterprises and proposed a structural model with their interrelation.

Sufficient or insufficient: Assessment of the intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) of the world’s major greenhouse gas emitters

The recent Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has resulted in the submission of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) of 190 countries. This study aims to provide an analysis of the ambitiousness and fairness of the mitigation components of the INDCs submitted by various parties. We use a unified framework to assess 23 INDCs that cover 50 countries, including European Union (EU)-28 countries as parties to the Convention, which represent 87.45% of the global greenhouse gas emissions in 2012. First, we transform initial INDC files into reported reduction targets. Second, we create four schemes and six scenarios to determine the required reduction effort, which considers each nation’s reduction responsibility, capacity, and potential, thereby reflecting their historical and current development status. Finally, we combine the reported reduction target and the required reduction effort to assess INDCs. Evaluation results of the 23 emitters indicate that 2 emitters (i.e., EU and Brazil) are rated as “sufficient,” 7 emitters (e.g., China, the United States, and Canada) are rated as “moderate,” and 14 emitters (e.g., India, Russia, and Japan) are rated as “insufficient.” Most pledges exhibit a considerable distance from representing a fair contribution.

The role of renewable energy in achieving Turkey's INDC

The aim of this study is to analyse impacts of renewable energy sources in achieving Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) targets of Turkey. INDCs as a part the Paris Agreement are based on national circumstances of countries on climate change. In order to reach the global goal of the Paris Agreement, countries shall monitor, update and upgrade their INDCs. The overall target of Turkish INDC is to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions up to 21 per cent from the Business as Usual (BaU) level by 2030. In this study, three scenarios are developed namely Low-INDC, Reference-INDC and High-INDC. These scenarios are used to analyse impacts of utilization of renewable energy on INDC target of Turkey. It is projected that Low-INDC, Reference-INDC and High-INDC can reduce cumulative 566, 511 and 428 million tons of CO2 emissions respectively. These mitigation amounts could correspondingly provide 32, 29 and 24 per cent of the cumulative emission reduction targets in Turkey's INDC. Total additional costs of Low-INDC, Reference-INDC and High-INDC scenarios are estimated as 12.52, 11.80 and 10.73 billion USD for the period of 2018–2030. Average unit costs of emissions reduction vary between 6.36 and 61.13 USD per reduced ton of CO2 emissions. In order to guarantee INDC target, Turkey should set new renewable energy targets for the INDC period.

Revisiting the social cost of carbon after INDC implementation in Malaysia: 2050.

This article projects the social cost of carbon (SCC) and other related consequences of climate change by using Malaysia's intended nationally determined contribution (INDC) and climate vision 2040 (CV2040) by 2050. It compares the projections derived from the Dynamic Integrated Model of the Climate and Economy (DICME) based on the respective INDC and CV2040 scenario. The results reveal that industrial emissions would incur a substantial increase every 5years under the scenario CV2040, while Malaysia would experience lower industrial emissions in the coming years under the scenario INDC. Emission intensity in Malaysia will be 0.61 and 0.59tons/capita in 2030 for scenario CV2040 and scenario INDC respectively. Malaysia would face climate damage of MYR456 billion and MYR 49 billion by 2050 under CV2040 and INDC scenario respectively. However, climate damage could be much lower if the INDC regime were adopted, as this scenario would decrease climatic impacts over time. The estimated SSC per ton of CO2 varies between MYR74 and MYR97 for scenario CV2040 and MYR44 and MYR62 for scenario INDC in 2030 and 2050 respectively. Considering different aspects, including industrial emissions, damage cost, and social cost of carbon, INDC is the best policy compared to CV2040. Thus, Malaysia could achieve its emissions reduction target by implementing INDC by 2050.

The Voices of Local NGOs in Climate Change Issues: Examples from Climate Vulnerable Nations

The contributions of small local non-government organisations (NGOs) in countries at risk from climate change to knowledge creation and action on climate change are rarely considered. This study sought to remedy this by focusing on NGOs in member countries of the Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF). Analysing data from Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), NGO websites and email correspondence with NGO staff through a knowledge brokering typology, this study examines the ways in which local NGOs in five members of the CVF (Afghanistan, Bhutan, Kiribati, Nepal and Tuvalu) take action, generate new knowledge and understandings and contribute to the plans and actions of their government and the international community. The study found that local NGOs are involved in the creation of new knowledge both at the scientific and community level and engage in actions to support adaptation to climate change. However, there are differences in the approaches they take when making contributions to scientific knowledge and climate change debates. The findings of this study suggest the need to reconceptualise the role of local NGOs in small countries at risk from climate change.

Achieving China’s Long-Term Carbon Emission Abatement Targets: A Perspective from Regional Disparity

As China is the largest greenhouse gas emitter and has the characteristics of significant regional disparity, the issue of regional low-carbon development strategy is of vital importance for the achievement of the country’s long-term emission targets. This work focused on China’s long-term carbon emission abatement from the perspective of regional disparity. We firstly analyzed the national emission trajectories consistent with the current Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), 2 °C, and 1.5 °C goals in two economic growth pathways by 2050 using a linear programming model, then classified the provinces into three categories, and compared results of different scenarios of regional disparity patterns, economic growth rates, and emission targets. Results showed that different regional patterns led to different required carbon reduction targets for all categories, and the regional emission reduction measures had to be stronger in a higher growth rate or a more stringent emission target, especially for the developed areas. A scheme of regionally coordinated low-carbon development was then recommended for the formulation of long-term regional emission targets, and carbon reduction strategies for categories were proposed in terms of energy mix optimization, industrial transformation, and technology innovation, which is of great policy implication for China in regional development and national emission targets enhancement.