Integrated Risk Assessment Research Articles

Environmental risk source management system for the petrochemical industry

We identify environmental risk sources within the petrochemical industry with a bow-tie analysis, evaluate environmental risk sources with an integrated environmental risk assessment index, and classify environmental risk sources considering both environmental consequences and management costs. Furthermore, we develop a routine management system for environmental risk sources based on browser/server model and web-GIS technology. The system has four main functions: petrochemical enterprise registration and declaration, environmental risk source information correction and confirmation, environmental risk source evaluation and classification, and environmental risk source management. The system runs with the following sequential steps. (1) Petrochemical enterprises register and declare their environmental risk source information. (2) The registered environmental risk source information is checked, corrected and confirmed by local environmental officials. (3) The probability and intensity of environmental risk are calculated for all registered petrochemical factories. (4) All environmental risk sources are classified into high, medium and low risk sections based on their potential regional environmental and ecological impacts. (5) The system provides recommendations on the routine risk management based on empirical expert opinions. The software provides an effective tool for safety production of petrochemical enterprises and can be applied by local governments for environmental risk source management.

Assessing the Risk Relative to Indoor Environment Quality in Education Buildings

The study involves the risk factors analysis for indoor environment quality in education buildings with high occupancy, in terms of the occupants’ vulnerability, but also in terms of the effects of environmental factors on the constructive elements. Integrated risk assessment methodology for environment quality has to establish clear assessment methods, verification and validation of models, identifying factors that influence the environment quality and the possibility of improving their effects. This paper presents the application results of risk assessment methodology concerning the health and intellectual performance of occupants caused by indoor environmental quality for an education building. Are taken into account the results obtained from systematic measurements, over a specified period, of higrothermal parameters and of CO2 content in atmosphere, in a classroom. The analysis conclusions allow some recommending solutions for the risk reduction through constructive measures and improvement of way it is used.

Dynamic Vulnerability Analysis of Population for Flood Disaster in Urban Area

Vulnerability analysis is a key step of risk analysis of natural disaster. Based on information diffusion theory and incomplete information, it analyzes the changes of the affected population in urban flood and identifies the function relationship between the hazard (rainstorm) and disaster-bearing body (population), which is called vulnerability curve of population in flood disaster.This curve not only can present some changing extent of urban flood risk, but also could provide an important basis for integrated risk assessment of urban flood.

An integrated risk assessment tool for team-based periodontal disease management.

Mounting evidence suggests a potential association of periodontal disease with systemic diseases such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease, cancer and stroke. The objective of this study is to develop an integrated risk assessment tool that displays a patients' risk for periodontal disease in the context of their systemic disease, social habits and oral health. Such a tool will be used by not just dental professionals but also by care providers who participate in the team-based care for chronic disease management. Displaying relationships between risk factors and its influence on the patient's general health could be a powerful educational and disease management tool for patients and clinicians. It may also improve the coordination of care provided by the provider-members of a chronic care team.

Integrated Risk Assessment for CCS

Currently there is no standard for risk assessment tools in Carbon Capture and Storage. Existing projects use a range of tools from the very simple to the sophisticated and probabilistic. It is likely that no standard will ever be appropriate for all uses and all stakeholders within CCS. A key component of risk assessment is to effectively communicate to stakeholders whether the risks have been thoroughly investigated and any potential risk is well understood. Using a suite of risk assessment tools across the lifecycle of a project will provide the best estimates of the risk and enable communicating this knowledge in the most effective manner. A key component in designing a risk assessment protocol is in selecting an expert elicitation method that is appropriate for the level of detail required by the tool. By using a structured elicitation to match the detail of the risk assessment tool, the best possible estimate of the risk will be obtained. Finally, we recommend a staged suite of risk assessment tools including brainstorming, bow tie diagrams, risk registers and Bayesian Belief Networks.

RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY AT ISLA DEL CARMEN, MEXICO

Extreme hydro-meteorological phenomena lead annually to serious damage and losses in the coastal zone of Isla del Carmen, on the Gulf of Mexico. The importance of the risk assessment is the possibility of preventing or reducing those harmful effects. In this context, an integrated risk assessment approach is performed based on the source-pathway-receptor concept to assess the flooding risk in the area. The paper analyses the consequences on the dune ecosystem that extends longitudinally along the island; and the effects on the population, infrastructure and natural habitat located next to the beach. The results of the study will be used to define the zones with a higher level of risk and to propose flood risk mitigation measures. Moreover, the study will contribute to the establishment of specific legislation which supports the protection of the coastal dune.

Abstract PL05-02: Translational Epidemiology: Towards Personalized Risk Assessment, Prevention, and Therapy

Abstract Delivery of personalized cancer risk assessment, prevention, and therapy is challenged by the complex gene-gene, gene-environment, and gene-therapeutic agent interactions that differentially impact diverse populations. We have been using a translational epidemiologic approach to construct comprehensive, clinically applicable risk prediction models along the entire cancer continuum, from etiology to screening, prognosis, treatment response, progression, quality of life, and survivorship. We assimilate epidemiologic, genetic and clinical variables with genotypic and phenotypic biomarkers to develop robust personalized risk prediction models that inform clinical care and empower clinical risk stratification. I will present our ongoing strategies to integrate molecular epidemiology into the individualized clinical management of cancer, and highlight key aspects of our most prominent research that has employed various “Omic” platforms and cell-based phenotypic assays to address key issues in risk assessment, prevention, and treatment outcome across several malignancies. We are establishing several large prospective cohorts of general public, pre-cancer, and cancer patients, respectively, for integrative risk assessment along the cancer continuum. The MD Anderson Cancer Patient Cohort is comprised of all newly-presenting patients that seek care at our institution. The cohort infrastructure encompasses an all-inclusive blood biorepository that is linked to an electronic patient history database of core epidemiologic risk factors with networking to institutional clinical patient data resources. This clinically well-characterized patient cohort provides a rich resource to develop personalized risk assessment tools and clinically useful models that aid in treatment stratification. In another initiative, the Premalignant Genome Atlas (PGA) program is focusing on earlier aspects of the cancer continuum to assess the full spectrum of risk factors contributing to initiation and progression of precancerous lesions, such as Barrett's esophagus and colorectal polyps. We have produced preliminary data on molecular profiling to identify biomarkers of progression risk. Our goals to delineate targets for prevention intervention will be discussed, as will our strategies to develop integrative risk prediction models to identify individuals who may benefit most from such intervention trials. Finally, in collaboration with the MJ Health Management Institution, we are developing the large prospective MJ Cohort with over half a million individuals undergoing comprehensive health screening in Taiwan. I will highlight the key public health take-home messages that we have derived from our analyses of risk factors associated with cancer and other diseases. Overall, our mission is to integrate translational epidemiologic discoveries into fundamental clinical applications and public health initiatives to enable individualized strategies that improve patients' lives and reduce the global burden of cancer. Citation Format: Xifeng Wu. Translational epidemiology: Towards personalized risk assessment, prevention, and therapy. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Eleventh Annual AACR International Conference on Frontiers in Cancer Prevention Research; 2012 Oct 16-19; Anaheim, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Prev Res 2012;5(11 Suppl):Abstract nr PL05-02.

Integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system based on a non-linear information dynamics model

This paper describes a non-linear information dynamics model for integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system from an evolution perspective. According to the occurrence and evolution of natural disaster system with complicated and nonlinear characteristics, a non-linear information dynamics mode is introduced based on the maximum flux principle during modeling process to study the integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system. Based on the non-equilibrium statistical mechanics method, a stochastic evolution equation of this system is established. The integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system can be achieved by giving reasonable weights of each evaluation index to stabilize the system. The new model reveals the formation pattern of risk grade and the dynamics law of evolution. Meanwhile, a method is developed to solve the dynamics evolution equations of complex system through the self-organization feature map algorithm. The proposed method has been used in complex disaster integrated risk assessment for 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China mainland. The results have indicated that the model is objective and effective.

Hormone replacement therapy for gynaecological cancer

Treatment of gynaeeological cancer frequently results in the loss of ovarian function and menopausal syndrome.The most effective treatment is hormone replacement therapy (HRT).According to the current studies,HRT does not increase the risk of recurrence or death in patients with early stage endometrial cancer and uterine leiomyosarcomas. The safety of HRT in ovarian cancer patients is inconclusive. Cervical squamous cell carcinoma, vaginal cancer and vulvar cancer are not contraindications for HRT. Estrogen replacement therapy (ERT) is contraindicated for low-grade endometrial stromal sarcomas. Therefore,after integrated risk assessment and discussion,patients with severe menopausal symptoms can be treated with HRT to improve the quality of life. Key words: Hormone replacement therapy; Menopause; Genital neoplasms, female

Diabetes Management Using Modern Information and Communication Technologies and New Care Models

BackgroundDiabetes, a metabolic disorder, has reached epidemic proportions in developed countries. The disease has two main forms: type 1 and type 2. Disease management entails administration of insulin in combination with careful blood glucose monitoring (type 1) or involves the adjustment of diet and exercise level, the use of oral anti-diabetic drugs, and insulin administration to control blood sugar (type 2).ObjectiveState-of-the-art technologies have the potential to assist healthcare professionals, patients, and informal carers to better manage diabetes insulin therapy, help patients understand their disease, support self-management, and provide a safe environment by monitoring adverse and potentially life-threatening situations with appropriate crisis management.MethodsNew care models incorporating advanced information and communication technologies have the potential to provide service platforms able to improve health care, personalization, inclusion, and empowerment of the patient, and to support diverse user preferences and needs in different countries. The REACTION project proposes to create a service-oriented architectural platform based on numerous individual services and implementing novel care models that can be deployed in different settings to perform patient monitoring, distributed decision support, health care workflow management, and clinical feedback provision.ResultsThis paper presents the work performed in the context of the REACTION project focusing on the development of a health care service platform able to support diabetes management in different healthcare regimes, through clinical applications, such as monitoring of vital signs, feedback provision to the point of care, integrative risk assessment, and event and alarm handling. While moving towards the full implementation of the platform, three major areas of research and development have been identified and consequently approached: the first one is related to the glucose sensor technology and wearability, the second is related to the platform architecture, and the third to the implementation of the end-user services. The Glucose Management System, already developed within the REACTION project, is able to monitor a range of parameters from various sources including glucose levels, nutritional intakes, administered drugs, and patient’s insulin sensitivity, offering decision support for insulin dosing to professional caregivers on a mobile tablet platform that fulfills the need of the users and supports medical workflow procedures in compliance with the Medical Device Directive requirements.ConclusionsGood control of diabetes, as well as increased emphasis on control of lifestyle factors, may reduce the risk profile of most complications and contribute to health improvement. The REACTION project aims to respond to these challenges by providing integrated, professional, management, and therapy services to diabetic patients in different health care regimes across Europe in an interoperable communication platform.

Benchmark analysis and numerical investigation on probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis codes for NPPs piping

In this paper, a benchmark analysis was conducted using two probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis codes for aged piping in nuclear power plants, in order to confirm their reliability and applicability. These analysis codes have been improved or developed in Japan for the structural integrity evaluation and risk assessment considering the age related degradation mechanisms. In the benchmark analysis, the primary loop recirculation system piping in the boiling water reactor was selected as the typical piping system and stress corrosion cracking and fatigue were taken into account as the typical aging mechanisms. Moreover, a criterion was proposed for judging whether the differences between analysis results from the two codes are acceptable. This criterion is useful for general benchmark analysis of probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis codes. Based on the benchmark analysis results and numerical investigation, it was concluded that the analysis results of these two codes agree very well.

The integrated risk assessment of transgenic crops

The integrated risk assessment of transgenic crops

Integrated risk assessment of urban water supply systems from source to tap

Urban water supply systems (UWSS) are generally composed of water sources, transmission pipes, treatment plants, and distribution networks from source to tap and usually are exposed to variety of uncertain threatening hazards. These threats can be divided to three main groups of natural, human-made, and operational hazards which affect either water quantity or water quality. In order to evaluate the reliability of water supply systems, risk assessment tools must be used to identify threats, their probability, and consequences and vulnerabilities of each element of these systems against the hazards. Due to the complexity and uncertainties affecting water supply systems and threatening hazards, a comprehensive and effective risk assessment method is required. In this study, an integrated fuzzy hierarchical risk assessment model for water supply systems (IFHRA-WSS) is proposed to assess hazards in a complex UWSS using a systematic approach incorporating both water quantity and quality issues. This model uses a hierarchical framework for breaking down the UWSS infrastructures to their interrelated elements to reduce the overall complexity of the system. It also considers uncertainties using Fuzzy Logic approach. Effects of functional interdependencies between different components of the system have also been considered in the vulnerability analysis. IFHRA-WSS incorporates the contributions of urban water experts in a group risk assessment procedure in a way that they can be easily expressed in terms of the qualitative and quantitative risk measures. Efficiency of this model has been examined in a case study which includes a large part of a drinking water supply system in a major city in Iran. This system includes all the elements of the UWSS from the delivery point to the consumption point. In the case study, different components and subcomponents of this system have been ranked based on their estimated risk values. It is envisaged that the results of the proposed model can help the decision makers to plan for effective risk mitigation measures.

Toxicokinetics as a key to the integrated toxicity risk assessment based primarily on non-animal approaches

Toxicokinetics (TK) is the endpoint that informs about the penetration into and fate within the body of a toxic substance, including the possible emergence of metabolites. Traditionally, the data needed to understand those phenomena have been obtained in vivo. Currently, with a drive towards non-animal testing approaches, TK has been identified as a key element to integrate the results from in silico, in vitro and already available in vivo studies. TK is needed to estimate the range of target organ doses that can be expected from realistic human external exposure scenarios. This information is crucial for determining the dose/concentration range that should be used for in vitro testing. Vice versa, TK is necessary to convert the in vitro results, generated at tissue/cell or sub-cellular level, into dose response or potency information relating to the entire target organism, i.e. the human body (in vitro–in vivo extrapolation, IVIVE). Physiologically based toxicokinetic modelling (PBTK) is currently regarded as the most adequate approach to simulate human TK and extrapolate between in vitro and in vivo contexts. The fact that PBTK models are mechanism-based which allows them to be ‘generic’ to a certain extent (various extrapolations possible) has been critical for their success so far. The need for high-quality in vitro and in silico data on absorption, distribution, metabolism as well as excretion (ADME) as input for PBTK models to predict human dose–response curves is currently a bottleneck for integrative risk assessment.

Operationalizing the Assessment and Management of Violence Risk in the Short‐term

Assessing risk of violence in the short term is crucial for managing and preventing violence, especially in institutions such as psychiatric units and prisons. Despite a lack of consensus on the definition of "short term", a number of recent tools and guidelines have been developed to aid short-term clinical decision-making. Whereas the supporting evidence for the new tools is impressive, limitations remain in terms of the focus on prediction, limited consideration of strengths, and poor integration with formulation and risk management. The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) is a brief clinical guide for the dynamic assessment of risks, strengths and treatability. It focuses on short-term risks and the characteristics of the individual that, if changed, might lead to an increase or decrease in risk. The START has the potential to operationalize the structured professional judgment (SPJ) approach in order to inform the evaluation of multiple risk domains relevant to everyday psychiatric clinical practice. However, explicit guidance on integrating risk assessment, formulation and management is limited in the START and this paper describes the SPJ approach, reviews recent developments in approaches to risk, and considers how the START can be used to inform SPJ approaches and link risk assessment, formulation, and management.

803 Integrative Marker Analysis and Risk Assessment in Stage II Colon Cancer

803 Integrative Marker Analysis and Risk Assessment in Stage II Colon Cancer

암반 지반의 재해도 스펙트럼에 기반한 토사지반 원전 부지의 등재해도 스펙트럼 평가 기법

암반지반에 주어진 등재해도 스펙트럼에 상응하는 원전부지 토사지반에서의 등재해도 스펙트럼을 도출하기 위한 확률론적 방법론을 제시하였다. 이를 위해 지진 운동 및 지반의 불확실성을 고려한 지반응답 해석을 통해 토사지반 지표에서의 지진동 증폭계수를 산정하였다. 증폭계수는 가장 상관관계가 높은 지반운동의 스펙트럴 가속도 규모와의 회귀분석을 통해 계산되었다. 이 방법론을 적용하여 국내 KNGR (Korean Next Generation Reactor) 및 APR1400 (Advanced Power Reactor 1400) 원전의 포괄부지 지반 중 B1, B4, C1 및 C3 지반을 대상으로 등재해도 스펙트럼을 도출하였다. 등재해도 스펙트럼을 통해 지진동 발생 빈도 별 위험 주파수 대역을 평가하고 분석하였다. 이 결과는 원전의 종합적 지진리스크 평가 결과를 보다 합리적으로 개선하는 데에 활용될 수 있으며, 향후 다양한 종류의 토사지반에 대한 등재해도 스펙트럼을 평가하는 데에 적용할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. We propose a probabilistic method to evaluate the uniform hazard spectra (UHS) of the soil of nuclear power plant(NPP) sites corresponding to that of a bedrock site. To do this, amplification factors on the surface of soil sites were estimated through site response analysis while considering the uncertainty in the earthquake ground motion and soil deposit characteristics. The amplification factors were calculated by regression analysis with spectral acceleration because these two factors are mostly correlated. The proposed method was applied to the evaluation of UHS for the KNGR (Korean Next Generation Reactor) and the APR1400 (Advanced Power Reactor 1400) nuclear power plant sites of B1, B4, C1 and C3. The most dominant frequency range with respect to the annual frequency of earthquakes was evaluated from the UHS analysis. It can be expected that the proposed method will improve the results of integrated risk assessments of NPPs rationally. We expect also that the proposed method will be applied to the evaluation of the UHS and of many other kinds of soil sites.

DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK FOR INTERNAL/EXTERNAL EVENTS AND ALL POWER MODES

From the PSA point of view, the Fukushima accident of Japan in 2011 reveals some issues to be re-considered and/or improved in the PSA such as the limited scope of the PSA, site risk, etc. KAERI (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) has performed researches on the development of an integrated risk assessment framework related to some issues arisen after the Fukushima accident. This framework can cover the internal PSA model and external PSA models (fire, flooding, and seismic PSA models) in the full power and the low power-shutdown modes. This framework also integrates level 1, 2 and 3 PSA to quantify the risk of nuclear facilities more efficiently and consistently. We expect that this framework will be helpful to resolve the issue regarding the limited scope of PSA and to reduce some inconsistencies that might exist between (1) the internal and external PSA, and (2) full power mode PSA and low power-shutdown PSA models. In addition, KAERI is starting researches related to the extreme external events, the risk assessment of spent fuel pool, and the site risk. These emerging issues will be incorporated into the integrated risk assessment framework. In this paper the integrated risk assessment framework and the research activities on the emerging issues are outlined.

The integrated risk assessment of transgenic rice Oryza sativa: A comparative proteomics approach

The identification of unintended effects resulting from genetic modification processes is an important but difficult aspect of evaluations of the biosafety of genetically modified organisms (GMOs). Non-targeted techniques offer considerable potential for improving the detection of unintended effects of genetic modification in crop plants. In this study, total seed protein expression patterns of two strains of transgenic rice (Bt rice and PEPC rice) were examined using a comparative proteomics approach with two-dimensional electrophoresis (2-DE), and differences determined comparing to each line’s non GM counterpart. The results indicated that some of the seed proteins from the two transgenic rice lines differed in their relative intensities. Twenty eight proteins were successfully identified with MALDI-TOF-MS, five of which were well-characterized and these were discussed. In summary, transgenic rice were found to differ in their protein contents from their non-GM counterparts, which might raise concerns regarding their potential risks for human health and ecology.

GIS-Based Seismic Damage Estimation: Case Study for the City of Kelowna, BC

AbstractThis study integrates risk assessment tools for diagnosis of urban areas against seismic disasters (RADIUS) and geographic information system (GIS), hence forth denoted as GBR (GIS based RADIUS). The GBR is applied for seismic damage estimation of city of Kelowna, in the interior of British Columbia, Canada. Ground-shaking intensity in the area was developed utilizing the seismic source zones defined by the Geological Survey of Canada and opinions from the local experts. Building inventories were compiled by aggregating data from municipal databases as well as sidewalk surveys and surveys through Google Maps. The GIS tool came in to be handy to provide a basis for effective decision making and gauge the vulnerable areas. Estimated damage and damage distributions were mapped on a block-by-block (5×5 km) basis. The assessment revealed that an earthquake scenario of M8.5 in the Cascadia Zone may potentially damage around 58 buildings within the city, causing 12 injuries. Plus, the study showed some d...