Integrated Risk Assessment Method Research Articles

Integrated physical safety–cyber security risk assessment based on layers of protection analysis

The extensive application of information technology in process industries has increased production efficiency but has also introduced new risks. Therefore, it is necessary to systematically analyse the risks within factories to ensure the stable operation of their production systems. This study proposes an integrated risk assessment method based on layers of protection analysis (LOPA), which combines physical safety and cyber security analyses to provide comprehensive risk assessments for the process industry. The method first identifies the hazardous scenarios and protection layers relevant to a process facility. It then identifies potential cyberattack types and existing countermeasures. Subsequently, the functional impacts of attacks on protection layers and potential coupling relationships are discussed. Using common vulnerability scoring system (CVSS) and semi-quantitative methods, the probability of attack is determined to optimize the probability of failure on demand (PFD) of the protection layers. Finally, a case study of a steam separator in a catalytic cracking unit is used to quantitatively explore the potential attacks and risks of coupled protection layers. The application of Bayesian network (BN) is used for further validation of the method. This study offers a novel quantitative tool for risk assessment in the process industry, which can enhance the security and reliability of industrial production and control systems.

An integrated risk assessment method for urban areas due to chemical leakage accidents

Chemical parks which hold large inventories of hazardous materials have become one important type of urban critical infrastructure. The hazardous chemical leakage such as toxic gas leakage has emerged in recent years, resulting in not only serious environmental pollution but also catastrophic consequences to certain urban areas. It is critical to make scientific risk assessment for such events to reduce negative effects. To address this issue, an integrated urban risk assessment (IURA) method coupling consequences of chemical leakage accidents and the vulnerability of local population is proposed in this work. The threat zones and hazard maps of toxic gas dispersion are present by using the ALOHA software. The population vulnerability is decided by three indicators including exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of residents in affected areas, the Grey Correlation-TOPSIS (GC-TOPSIS) method is used to rank the vulnerability of different regions. The ArcGIS software is applied to generate an integrated risk map through superimposing the hazard map and the population vulnerability map. The original risk matrix evaluation results were subdivided using the Borda count method. A case about an industrial city in Hubei, China is analyzed to test the method. Result shows the new integrated risk assessment method is more accurate and effective, which is beneficial for the government to develop emergency plans and enhance the safety of people.

IRA-3MSS: Integrated Risk Assessment Method for Three Management System Standards in the Field of Information Technology Service

IRA-3MSS: Integrated Risk Assessment Method for Three Management System Standards in the Field of Information Technology Service

An integrated risk assessment method for cross-regional mega construction projects

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to develop a novel integrated risk assessment method from the system perspective to evaluate the risk of the cross-regional mega construction project (CMCP). Furthermore, this paper aims to confirm the core risk source factors and refine the risk management strategies of CMCPs through a case study.Design/methodology/approachBased on the analysis of the risk system of CMCPs, the concept model and risk assessment principles of integrated risk assessment were confirmed. The risk source factors and project objectives of the CMCP were identified from a literature review, export interview and case analysis. According to the vulnerability theory, the integrated risk assessment model was developed by involving vulnerabilities, threats, objectives and interaction of those factors synthetically. Then, ZW high-speed railway from China was analyzed to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.FindingsAs a result, 12 threat factors and 12 vulnerability factors were identified. Based on the case study, the main external threat comes from T13 (conflicts of interest between local governments) and T23 (harsh natural environment); the most easily exploited internal vulnerabilities were V11 (complexity of technology), V13 (lack of experience in technical application), V21 (inadequate experience) and V23 (lack of interest coordination mechanism). Moreover, the economic objective was most affected.Practical implicationsIt is essential to develop an interest coordination mechanism for CMCPs. The harsh natural environment is a critical factor, but it also promotes technological innovation and iteration. Public opinions in different regions are critical for CMCPs, and more emphasis should be placed on public opinion surveys of CMCPs. Moreover, diverse and flexible environmental protection strategies should apply in CMCPs.Originality/valueThis research has the following three contributions. First, based on vulnerability theory, an integrated risk assessment approach of CMCPs is developed, which enriches the risk measurement method system and provides inspiration for future research on risk in the construction industry. Second, the risk sources of CMCPs are identified from the perspective of vulnerability and threat to provide clear guidance for the risk management of CMCPs. Third, the core risk source factors and management strategies confirmed by the case study will be beneficial for various governments in different regions and project managers to optimize the project management scheme, as they are transferable management experiences.

Evaluating operational risk for train control system using a revised risk matrix and FD-FAHP-Cloud model: A case in China

An accident caused by train control system may not only bring expensive loss, but also result in severe destruction to surrounding environment. The purpose of this study is to study operational risk of Chinese Train Control System- Level 3 (CTCS-3). An integrated risk assessment method is developed by combining fishbone diagram (FD), Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) with cloud model. Based on fishbone diagram, risk factors (RFs) of train control system are identified from two perspectives of hazard event, namely occurrence frequency and sequence severity. To further classify RFs quantitatively, a revised risk matrix based on FAHP is introduced to calculate the consequence and likelihood weights for each risk factor (RF), and then Risk Index (RI) is getting by making product of consequence and likelihood weights, which reflects relative influence degree on operational risk. Finally, in order to assess the comprehensive operational risk of CTCS, cloud model is used to logically calculate quantitative results, and the CTCS-3 in Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway is empirically investigated to analyze its overall operational risk level. The result shows that its risk level is between medium and low, and more inclined to low, which means being acceptable but not ideal. Meanwhile, some specific suggestions and measures are proposed to eliminate or reduce RFs with higher frequency and worse consequence.

An integrated risk assessment method using Z‐fuzzy clouds and generalized TODIM

AbstractAs a systematic risk assessment instrument, failure mode, and effects analysis (FMEA) has been extensively applied for enhancing systems’ quality. However, the classical FMEA technique has limitations in many application scenarios. Although fuzzy logic‐based risk assessment techniques are introduced to enhance conventional FMEA, they still have limitations, for example, needing prior presumptions, neglecting decision‐makers’ bounded rationality, and lacking the capability to reflect the judgmental reliability and randomness of experts’ evaluations simultaneously. To cover these limitations, an extended FMEA method is presented in this paper by using Z‐fuzzy clouds and generalized TODIM (An acronym in Portuguese of interactive and multiple attribute decision‐making). First, a novel concept of Z‐fuzzy clouds is proposed to handle various factors of uncertainties by combining the advantages of the Z‐number theory, the interval‐valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets theory, and the cloud model theory, and the basic operations and Minkowski‐type distance measure of Z‐fuzzy clouds are also defined and discussed. Furthermore, more risk factors are added into the conventional three risk factors and to further build a multiple dimension risk factor system for better evaluating failures. Additionally, the experts’ bounded rationality and the risk factors’ interrelationships are considered by two developed weighting models. Finally, a real study case, sensitivity analysis, and several comparisons are performed to validate the effectiveness of the proposed model. Results demonstrate that the proposed model is more rational compared with the previous several methods.

Flood risk assessment and application of risk curves for design of mitigation strategies

A transportation network is a critical infrastructure system that forms the backbone for economy, serves the everyday life, and is critical to national safety. Holistic design of such a system is required to ensure smooth operation under both operational and emergency conditions. However, with ever-changing climate, transportation systems are exposed to significant weather-related hazards. For example, flood events are proven to be a dominant hazard in the U.S. due to their frequency and intensity. While flood events affect state agencies by requiring direct tax-dollar investments to repair damages, they also adversely influence communities by producing substantial indirect losses. This motivates state agencies, asset owners, and planners to developcost-effective mitigation strategies. However, the uncertainty of flooding and the interdependency between assets (such as roads and bridges) within the transportation system and traffic users on one hand and limited budgetary resources on the other hand, challenge the design of a cost-effective risk mitigation strategy. This is exacerbated by the fact that the estimation of indirect losses associated with closures resulting from damaged assets is difficult to assess. To address such gaps, this paper develops an integrated risk assessment method that synthesizes various inputs, including hazards, geographic features, spatial distribution of assets, and traffic, to simulate the flood-induced risk to a real-life transportation system. This framework is capable of estimating actual physical infrastructure damages as well as quantitatively evaluating the indirect losses of traffic users such as traffic delays and opportunity costs closely associated with flood risk. The developed flood risk curves can be used by decision-makers to implement proper pre-event mitigation or post-event response plans.

An Improving the Occupational Risk Assessment in Industrial Enterprises

Abstract An occupational risk assessment is one of the main processes to assure a safe and healthy workplace. It was shown, that this process is particularly important in the cause of industrial enterprises, in which the number of accidents is the largest. In these enterprises, one of the most often practiced methods is the PN-N-18002 method. However, it was concluded this method has some limitations. They concern the way of assessing the risks in the traditional number scale, which is less precise than the fuzzy triangular number (using in FAHP). Therefore, the aim is to improve the process of assessment in industrial enterprises by integrated the PN-N-18002 method with the FAHP method (Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process). The test of the proposed method was made for three machine operator positions used to aggregate extraction in one of the Podkarpacie enterprises. These positions were: loader operator (Ł-34), digger operator (CAT 323), dredge operator (300/250 KREBS 10/8). The concept of the method was to identify in a precise way what is the greatest extent danger to the operators of these workplaces. It was shown, that it is the work at height. It was concluded, that this method can be practice to risk assessment of other workplaces, among others from industrial enterprises. The originality is the integrated risk assessment method (PN-N-18002) with the fuzzy multicriteria decision method (FAHP) as part of achieving the precise results of risk assessment.

Integrated risk assessment method for spent fuel road transportation accident under complex environment

Current risk assessment of Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) transportation has the problem of the incomplete risk factors consideration and the general particle diffusion model utilization. In this paper, the accident frequency calculation and the detailed simulation of the accident consequences are coupled by the integrated risk assessment method. The “man-machine-environment” three-dimensional comprehensive risk indicator system is established and quantified to characterize the frequency of the transportation accidents. Consideration of vegetation, building and turbulence effect, the standard k-ε model is updated to simulate radioactive consequence of leakage accidents under complex terrain. The developed method is applied to assess the risk of the leakage accident in the scene of the typical domestic SNF Road Transportation (SNFRT). The critical risk factors and their impacts on the dispersion of the radionuclide are obtained.

Analysing the effects of liquefaction on capsizing through integrating interpretive structural modelling (ISM) and fuzzy Bayesian networks (FBN)

The main purpose of this research is to analyse the effect of cargo liquefaction on the capsizing of bulk carriers through an integrated model. To do this, initially, an interpretive structure modelling (ISM) was carried out to construct the relationship hierarchy of risk factors while a fuzzy Bayesian networks (FBN) were conducted to quantify impact level. The results revealed that liquefaction and improper actions to upright, among 19 factors, have a significant effect on capsizing. The findings also emphasize that the factors (improper loading (29%), lack of cargo care at sea (27.4%) and insufficient knowledge (22%)) arising from human error play an important role in cargo liquefaction. Unlike experimental researches in the literature, this research analyses the liquefaction risk and the other basic causes resulting from the capsizing of bulk carriers using an integrated risk assessment method. For further researches, it is recommended to consider other risk identification and assessment models for better results.

Development of an Integrated Risk Assessment Method to Quantify the Life Safety Risk in Buildings in Case of Fire

An integrated probabilistic risk assessment methodology is developed for the purpose of quantifying the life safety level of people present in buildings in the context of fire safety design. Multiple risk based concepts and tools have been developed in previous research to objectify performance based design methods for simple building types and layouts. However, these available models lack an integrated approach for challenging building designs and moreover they are not adequately coupled, most often resulting in a significant computational effort. Hence, there is a need for a pratical and efficient framework for dealing with complicated building layouts and different occupancy types. Therefore, a computationally efficient quantitative risk assessment method is developed that provides a framework by combining deterministic sub-models and probabilistic techniques to quantify the fire safety level by means of failure probabilities, individual and societal risk. The deterministic framework is supported by analytical and numerical models. The probabilistic framework is supported by response surface modelling, sampling techniques and limit state design. Following the theoretical description of the model, a case study of a five storey commercial shopping mall of 25,000 m² is elaborated and discussed as proof of concept. Multiple fire, building and occupant variables are implemented in the model. Three different fire safety designs are compared, resulting in quantified risks between 10-6 and 10-8. The case study proves the validity of the newly developed integrated methodology for this type of buildings and its benefits in fire safety engineering.

Tunnel collapse risk assessment based on multistate fuzzy Bayesian networks

AbstractExcessive structural deformation or collapse can lead to heavy casualties and substantial property loss. This paper presents a novel integrated risk assessment method based on multistate fuzzy Bayesian networks integrated with historical data, expert investigations, probability distribution calculations, discrepancy analysis, sensitivity analysis, and decision‐making. A new expert investigation is proposed with small probability intervals, expert weights, confidence index, etc. After gaining expert judgment by expert investigation, Chauvenet's criterion is first introduced in a discrepancy analysis to eliminate outlier data from the expert judgment and obtain a more reliable value. The t distribution and its confidence interval are also adopted to determine the characteristic value of the survey data as a triangular fuzzy number. A conditional probability table of the model is integrated with historical data and prior knowledge through the weight index. Sensitivity analysis is used to identify the critical factors by changing the probability distribution of each factor and observing the related changes in the risk event. The proposed method ensures the accuracy and scientific rigor of the assessment and the diagnosis of a tunnel accident. This method is successfully applied to assess the collapse probability of the Yu Liao Tunnel.

Suggestions for Developing Integrated Risk Assessment Method for High-Rise Buildings in Korea: Based on Analysis of FEMA’s IRVS

The purpose of this study was to develop the integrated risk assessment system for high-rise buildings reflecting the Korean Building Code and guidelines of Preliminary Disaster Inspection and Consultation Systems based on the analysis of FEMA’s IRVS in US. Through reviewing various hazards’ assessment factors, a classification system and methodology for evaluating risk scores in IRVS, applicable factors, limitation of systems to apply to a Korean future system and improvement to verify the assessment methodology are determined. The results of this study will be used to provide the framework and establish the practical goals for developing a Korean risk assessment system for high-rise buildings.

Method for Assessing the Integrated Risk of Soil Pollution in Industrial and Mining Gathering Areas.

Industrial and mining activities are recognized as major sources of soil pollution. This study proposes an index system for evaluating the inherent risk level of polluting factories and introduces an integrated risk assessment method based on human health risk. As a case study, the health risk, polluting factories and integrated risks were analyzed in a typical industrial and mining gathering area in China, namely, Binhai New Area. The spatial distribution of the risk level was determined using a Geographic Information System. The results confirmed the following: (1) Human health risk in the study area is moderate to extreme, with heavy metals posing the greatest threat; (2) Polluting factories pose a moderate to extreme inherent risk in the study area. Such factories are concentrated in industrial and urban areas, but are irregularly distributed and also occupy agricultural land, showing a lack of proper planning and management; (3) The integrated risks of soil are moderate to high in the study area.

Integrated risk assessment method of waterlog disaster in Huaihe River Basin of China

Regional waterlog disaster integrated risk system, affected by natural, social, and economic systems and its combination relationship, is a complex system with certain structure and function. Waterlog disaster integrated risk results from the combined effects of regional environment, impact factors, vulnerability, and disaster-reducing capability of flood hazards in the drainage area. Waterlog disaster integrated risk system can be divided into four subsystems of hazard, vulnerability, disaster-reducing capability, and disaster conditions. Evaluation indexes are selected using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method, and the evaluation index system is established. Then, the waterlog disaster integrated risk evaluation model is proposed based on set pair analysis method. Taking Huaihe river in Anhui Province of China as the typical area in this study, the results show that the proposed approach is able to obtain the spatial distribution characteristics of waterlog hazard, vulnerability, mitigation capabilities, and integrated disaster risk within the study area. From the quantitative point of view, identification of the areas with high flood risk can provide a scientific basis for the flood management and technical support.

ARAMIS Project: Reference Accident Scenarios Definition in SEVESO Establishment

ARAMIS (Accidental Risk Assessment Methodology for IndustrieS) is an European project aiming to build up a new integrated risk assessment method that will be used as a supportive tool to speed up the harmonized implementation of Seveso II Directive. A part of ARAMIS is devoted to the identification of accident scenarios in process industries. First, a Methodology for the Identification of Major Accident Hazards (MIMAH) is defined. According to a bow‐tie approach, the major accidents are identified through generic fault and event trees. The term “Major Accidents” must be understood as the worst accidents likely to occur on an installation, assuming that no safety systems are installed. Second, a Methodology for the Identification of Reference Accident Scenarios (MIRAS) studies the influence of safety systems placed on the branches of generic trees. The deep study of causes of accidents, probability levels, safety systems effectiveness and safety management efficiency allows us to define Reference Accident Scenarios, representing the real hazardous potential of the installation. This approach is intended to give an acute estimation of the risk level and to promote the implementation of safety systems. Test cases were carried out in five companies across Europe in order to validate the application of ARAMIS.

PROTEUS, a technical and management model for aquatic risk assessment of industrial spills

The assessment of risks to the aquatic environment related to industrial installations is a priority in environmental pollution control in the Netherlands. Major accidents to the surface water such as the Sandoz incident, but also the high number of smaller accidents that occur every year has invoked the need for an effective method to assess these risks. Two different models have been used in this field in the Netherlands over several years. These two software applications, VERIS and RISAM were developed from two different perspectives: VERIS from the perspective of supplying major accidents related information in the safety report, RISAM form the perspective of controlling risks for both smaller and larger facilities that may pollute surface waters through accidents. Both systems comprised particular strong points: VERIS considers safety management aspects in the assessment, RISAM considers differences in surface water vulnerability and involves quantitative probabilities in the assessment. It was decided to integrate both methods and maintain these strong points in the resulting method. This paper describes the new integrated risk assessment method that now has been developed in a concerted effort between the Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, the Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and Environment, and the National Institute for Public Health and Environment. It also describes the essential elements of the computer program PROTEUS that is based on the new method and that makes the assessment of aquatic risks for industrial activities an easy task, partly due to the automatic generation of the assessment report.