Evaluating operational risk for train control system using a revised risk matrix and FD-FAHP-Cloud model: A case in China

Abstract

An accident caused by train control system may not only bring expensive loss, but also result in severe destruction to surrounding environment. The purpose of this study is to study operational risk of Chinese Train Control System- Level 3 (CTCS-3). An integrated risk assessment method is developed by combining fishbone diagram (FD), Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) with cloud model. Based on fishbone diagram, risk factors (RFs) of train control system are identified from two perspectives of hazard event, namely occurrence frequency and sequence severity. To further classify RFs quantitatively, a revised risk matrix based on FAHP is introduced to calculate the consequence and likelihood weights for each risk factor (RF), and then Risk Index (RI) is getting by making product of consequence and likelihood weights, which reflects relative influence degree on operational risk. Finally, in order to assess the comprehensive operational risk of CTCS, cloud model is used to logically calculate quantitative results, and the CTCS-3 in Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway is empirically investigated to analyze its overall operational risk level. The result shows that its risk level is between medium and low, and more inclined to low, which means being acceptable but not ideal. Meanwhile, some specific suggestions and measures are proposed to eliminate or reduce RFs with higher frequency and worse consequence.