Integrated Production Model Research Articles

An integrated system dynamics model of electricity production, consumption, and export policy in Iran considering carbon emissions

The electricity industry is a cornerstone of modern economies, requiring accurate forecasting to facilitate informed decision-making aligned with sustainable development goals. This study employs a novel, comprehensive system dynamics model comprising four subsystems: consumption, production, carbon emissions, and electricity trading. Our analysis reveals significant trends in Iran's electricity industry. The household sector is projected to become the largest energy consumer, with anticipated reductions in consumer sector subsidies over time. By 2040, total electricity production is forecasted to reach 862,835 million kWh, with renewable sources contributing only 3.3 percent. This trajectory is accompanied by a substantial increase in carbon emissions, reaching 448,383 tons, an alarming 2.6-fold surge compared to 2020. The private sector is anticipated to account for 70 percent of these emissions. Given the findings, prioritizing renewable electricity sources becomes imperative to align with sustainable development goals. Utilizing this integrated model, stakeholders can formulate informed strategies and interventions to navigate the evolving landscape of Iran's electricity sector.

Constraint optimization of an integrated production model utilizing history matching and production forecast uncertainty through the ensemble Kalman filter

The calibration of reservoir models using production data can enhance the reliability of predictions. However, history matching often leads to only a few matched models, and the original geological interpretation is not always preserved. Therefore, there is a need for stochastic methodologies for history matching. The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is a well-known Monte Carlo method that updates reservoir models in real time. When new production data becomes available, the ensemble of models is updated accordingly. The initial ensemble is created using the prior model, and the posterior probability function is sampled through a series of updates. In this study, EnKF was employed to evaluate the uncertainty of production forecasts for a specific development plan and to match historical data to a real field reservoir model. This study represents the first attempt to combine EnKF with an integrated model that includes a genuine oil reservoir, actual production wells, a surface choke, a surface pipeline, a separator, and a PID pressure controller. The research optimized a real integrated production system, considering the constraint that there should be no slug flow at the inlet of the separator. The objective function was to maximize the net present value (NPV). Geological data was used to model uncertainty using Sequential Gaussian Simulation. Porosity scenarios were generated, and conditioning the porosity to well data yielded improved results. Ensembles were employed to balance accuracy and efficiency, demonstrating a reduction in porosity uncertainty due to production data. This study revealed that utilizing a PID pressure controller for the production separator can enhance oil production by 59% over 20 years, resulting in the generation of 2.97 million barrels of surplus oil in the field and significant economic gains.

Experimental design and manufacturing of a smart control system for horizontal separator based on PID controller and integrated production model

During oil production, the reservoir pressure declines, causing changes in the hydrocarbon components. To ensure better separation of produced phases, separator dimensions should also be adjusted. It is not possible to change the dimensions of the separator during production. Therefore, to improve the separation of the phases, the level of the separator needs to be adjusted. An intelligent system is required to ensure that the liquid level is maintained at the desired level for optimal phase separation during changes in reservoir pressure. In this study, a novel correlation is presented to measure the desired liquid level using new separator pressures. For this purpose, an intelligent system was built in the laboratory and tested in different operational conditions. The intelligent system effectively maintained the desired liquid level of the separator through a new correlation technique. The system accomplished this by acquiring new separator pressure readings collected by installed sensors. This approach helped mitigate the negative effects of the slug flow regime and minimized issues such as foam formation and over-flushing of the separator. It could achieve a 99.1% separation efficiency between gas and liquid phases. This was possible during liquid and gas flow rates ranging from 0 to 2.35 and 8–17 m3/h, respectively. The system could operate under bubble, stratified, plug, and slug flow regimes. Then the intelligent model obtained from lab experiments was integrated into the production model for the southern Iranian oil field. The smart model increased oil production by 13% and prevented the separator from over-flushing in 840 days.

A Strategic Examination of the Electric Vehicle (EV) Industry: Unveiling Opportunities and Challenges for Tesla's Continued Dominance

This study delves into a strategic examination of the burgeoning Electric Vehicle (EV) industry. By employing Porter's Five Forces framework and analyzing industry trends, the research unveils the key factors influencing competition, profitability, and growth potential. The analysis sheds light on the bargaining power of suppliers and buyers, the threat of new entrants and substitutes, and the intensity of competitive rivalry within the EV landscape.Furthermore, the study conducts an in-depth evaluation of Tesla, the current frontrunner in the EV market. It dissects Tesla's core strengths, including its brand recognition, technological innovation, and vertically integrated production model. However, the analysis also unveils potential weaknesses, such as dependence on a limited product portfolio and high production costs.By meticulously assessing the industry landscape and Tesla's competitive positioning, the research aims to identify strategic opportunities and challenges that the company faces. It explores how Tesla can leverage its current advantages to capitalize on emerging market trends, such as increasing government support for EVs and growing consumer demand for sustainable transportation solutions. Additionally, the study addresses the potential threats posed by established automakers aggressively entering the EV market and innovative startups disrupting the industry with disruptive technologies.Ultimately, the strategic examination provides valuable insights for investors, business leaders, and industry stakeholders. It offers a comprehensive understanding of the competitive dynamics shaping the future of the EV industry and helps to assess Tesla's potential for continued dominance in this rapidly evolving market.

Origins of the Concept of Circular Economy and its Evolution

The first concepts connected with the material circularity have been introduced through the terms of Industrial Symbiosis and Industrial Ecology since the 1940s. In 1947 Renner, G. included in his works the term of ‘reuse – exchange’ as processes by which waste or by-products of an industry or industrial processes become the raw materials for another one (exchange). In 1966, Economy in Washington – with the paper ‘The Economics of the Coming Spaceship Earth’ presented the idea of a circular loop for the materials, considering open and closed systems. Moreover, in the 1970s, Stahel, W. R. introduced the concept with the expression ‘cradle-to-cradle’ in opposition with ‘cradle-to grave’. As a consequence of the environmental revolution, the industrial ecology gained more and more importance. In the 1980s, Frosh, R. A. proposed an analogy of natural ecosystems, for the eco-industrial ones: in addition to reducing the production of wastes, they should maximize the efficient use of residue materials and end-of-life products, as an input for other production processes. In 1994, Pauli, G. in ‘Zero Emissions Research and Initiatives’ divided the economic models in three: red, green and blue economy. Later, Ayres went ahead using the metaphor of the biosphere (ecology) – technosphere (economy), followed by Biomimicry of Benyus, thanks to the ‘Spiral of Life’. At the end of the 19th and the beginning of the 20th centuries, the Linear Economy based on the terms take, make, consume, throw away was introduced. Its development is connected with the technological innovations encouraged by the growing scientific development increased productivity and promoted the progress of the linear economy. The Circular Economy, was introduced in 2015 by the European Union, and its aim is connected with the concept of: a) more efficient and sustainable use of resources; b) new integrated model of production, distribution and consumption.

Nodal and least-cost analysis on the optimization of natural gas production system constraints to extend the plateau rate of a conceptual gas field

The supply of natural gas in any country is determined by energy demand. Furthermore, supply agreements specify that gas should be supplied at a constant rate for a specified period. However, due to the decline in reservoir pressure as gas fields continue to produce, high constant rate production is usually uncertain, and the plateau may not reach the agreed-upon period. Therefore, this study was conducted to optimize gas production system constraints and extend the production plateau rate of a conceptual dry gas field. The field was made up of the sand packages CF2 upper, CF2 lower, CF1 upper, and CF1 lower. A total of 1316.9 Bscf were assumed to be the estimated gas field reserves, and 423.3 Bcf were assumed to be the remaining economically recoverable gross 2 P sales of natural gas. The field also contained natural gas at the Miocene and five production wells, numbered PW-1, PW-2, PW-3, PW-4, and PW-5. The field's estimated average constant gas production rate as of July 2021 was 85 MMscfd. The field's gas demand was forecasted in three phases, with the third beginning on November 1, 2019, at a rate of 130 MMscfd. After applying Nodal Analysis with the help of Integrated Production Modelling (IPM) and Least Cost Analysis methods, the study found that the gas production plateau of that field started to decline on March 1, 2017, after 1 year and 5 months of production when constrained to 130 MMscfd. However, after modifying the constraints to match various assumed production histories, it was discovered that the plateau would start to decline on June 1, 2023, after 8 years of production. Therefore, eight possible combinations of varying the three production constraints were developed and simulated to examine their effect on extending the field production plateau. These constraints were separator pressure, tubing size, and the number of layers perforated. The best combination was to lower the separator pressure to 725 psia, increase the tubing size to 4 inches, and perforate three more zones (zones I, C, and D). This was the only combination that appeared to extend the production plateau for 8 years until October 1, 2031, as required in the 16 years gas sales agreement (GSA). This approach was economically compared to the options of using a compressor and drilling future wells, and it was found to be 34.05% cheaper than the compressor usage option and 98.25% cheaper than drilling a well. As a result, the operators of this conceptual gas field are advised to adopt this approach to extend the field's plateau.

Circular Economy: Origins, Evolution and Role of MSW

Abstract Circular economy is presented today in opposition to linear economy. This last one was introduced at the end of the 19th, based on the terms: take, make, consume, through away. Its development was connected with the technological innovations for increasing the productivity as an absolute target. The analysis of the literature demonstrates that the first concepts of the material circularity were introduced before an official definition of waste, through the terms of Industrial Symbiosis and Industrial Ecology since the 40s. In the following decades important enhancements can be met in the criteria available for having an economy more oriented towards sustainability. A milestone can be considered the issue of the circular economy package from EU in 2015, specifically related to MSW, with the concepts of efficient and sustainable use of resources and new integrated model of production, distribution and consumption. As the EU decided to give centrality to MSW, this article analyses its role in the above-mentioned literature. CE and MSW were analysed also from another aspect: the generation of detailed information on the characteristics of residual MSW management is discussed as a strategy to support CE. Finally, the expectations of the sector as a consequence of the adoption of circularity concepts were analysed.

Modeling of green agricultural environment and rape hyperspectral analysis based on machine learning algorithm

In recent years, China's agricultural Internet of Things technology has attracted great attention. Document No. 1 emphasizes that we will make every effort to use Internet of Things technology, big data, mobile Internet, cloud computing technology, etc. to promote the progress of "Internet + " modern agriculture. Government departments have taken the lead in accelerating the development of agricultural and animal husbandry technology, improving the infrastructure construction of the agricultural industry chain and upgrading the management decision-making management system, building a comprehensive logistics information management service platform, ensuring effective production scheduling in the agricultural and animal husbandry sales market, and improving the construction Agriculture and animal husbandry industry chain. WSN-based has many advantages over traditional solutions, such as long-term monitoring, accuracy, scalability, easy deployment, and low cost, making wireless sensors widely used in the environment and agriculture. Therefore, in the agricultural Internet of Things, a variety of sensor connection points can be arranged around the crops to form system software and a comprehensive monitoring website, which can help farmers deal with problems in a timely manner and propose corresponding solutions to this. Form an integrated production model based on the agricultural Internet of Things system that generates intelligent decisions.

A fully integrated reservoir/pipeline network model and its application on the evaluation of subsea water separation performance

Subsea water separation (SSWS) is a promising cutting-edge technology in handling specific problems related to offshore development, but the close evaluation of SSWS performance is quite lacking. This work develops an integrated production modeling (IPM) approach to comprehensively quantify the effect of SSWS both from technological and economical perspectives. A fully-implicit integrated production model is proposed, which assembles 3D reservoir equations and pipeline network equations together and seeks for simultaneous solutions. The feature of simultaneous hydro-thermal solution provides a remarkable value in the analysis of flow assurance issues related to wax deposition in the subsea flowlines. The indexing and mapping frameworks make the model prone to configuring different scenarios, both in temporal and spatial dimensions. A case study is presented to analyze the performance of SSWS under four subsea configurations in a pre-salt deepwater condition by three quantitative indicators: NPV, oil recovery, and wax-free index. Results show that subsea water separation has the potential to increase final oil recovery and project NPV for a clustered well system, while limited benefits shall be expected in a satellite well configuration. Also, higher risk of wax deposition is observed in a satellite well configuration compared to a clustered well system. The IPM approach, together with an economic model, provide decision makers with a way to estimate the break-even price on the investment of a subsea water separation station. The methodology proposed in this work also provides a guide in future assessment of other potential subsea technologies.

Integrated management model of production and yard stock for in-situ precast concrete production

ABSTRACT In-situ production of precast concrete (PC) members is affected by various factors, such as cost, time, quantity, lead-time, number of molds, production cycle, number of cranes, and yard stock area. Particularly, the yard stock area constitutes over 84% of the total required area, considerably larger than the production area. This is important because in-situ production is not applicable if the yard stock area is not satisfied. However, most existing studies related to in-situ production of PC members have focused on the production area, and no study has specifically focused on the yard stock area. Therefore, research on in-situ production, considering various influencing factors centering on the yard stock area, is required. This study developed a system dynamics-based integrated management model of production and yard stock for in-situ production. Cost reduction up to 739,000 USD was demonstrated possible in a case project, wherein the yard stock area was 5,941m2. The influencing factors of in-situ production can be numerically controlled in the proposed model. It is thus possible to perform an effective simulation study and obtain appropriate values of the yard stock area, which varies during the project, under various scenarios based on the real site situations.

Representativeness of the fluid model in integrated production models

Representativeness of the fluid model in integrated production models

Overcoming challenges in field development plan optimization with integrated Production Modelling (IPM): an example of a Giant ultra-deepwater oil field

Overcoming challenges in field development plan optimization with integrated Production Modelling (IPM): an example of a Giant ultra-deepwater oil field

Optimization of MBR Field Integrated Production Model

MBR Field is an onshore field located at East Kalimantan. In this field, there are five clusters with 2 main stations and 1 supporting station. With the current pipe flow conditions, this field has several constraints which are ESP maximum motor loads, ESP maximum frequencies, and current maximum water injection plant capacity. First, modeling is done with deviations of less than 10 percent to reach matching conditions in several parameters such as upstream pressure, downstream pressure, liquid rate, water rate, oil rate, and gas rate. Afterward, the first optimization is done by increasing the ESP frequency, increasing choke bean size, and shutting-in relatively low oil production wells with high water cut. But due to the water production is almost exceeding the water injection plant capacity, then the second optimization is done. The second optimization is done by increasing choke bean size and shutting-in relatively low oil production wells with high water cut. Each optimization is then followed by an analysis of pressure and flowrates alterations and the existence of backpressure in unoptimized wells.

Influence of well management in the development of multiple reservoir sharing production facilities

Well prioritization rules on integrated production models are required for the interaction between reservoirs and restricted production systems, thus predicting the behavior of multiple reservoir sharing facilities. This study verified the impact of well management with an economic evaluation based on the distinct prioritizations by reservoir with different fluids. We described the impact of the well management method in a field development project using a consolidated methodology for production strategy optimization. We used a benchmark case based on two offshore fields, a light oil carbonate and a black-oil sandstone, with gas production constraint in the platform. The independent reservoir models were tested on three different approaches for platform production sharing: (Approach 1) fixed apportionment of platform production and injection, (Approach 2) dynamic flow-based apportionment, and (Approach 3) dynamic flow-based apportionment, including economic differences using weights for each reservoir. Approach 1 provided the intermediate NPV compared with the other approaches. On the other hand, it provided the lowest oil recovery. We observed that the exclusion of several wells in the light oil field led to a good valuation of the project, despite these wells producing a fluid with higher value. Approach 2 provided the lower NPV performance and intermediate oil recovery. We found that the well prioritization based on flow failed to capture the effects related to the different valuation of the fluids produced by the two reservoirs. Approach 3, which handled the type of fluids similarly to Approach 1, provided a greater NPV and oil recovery than the other approaches. The weight for each reservoir applied to well prioritization better captured the gains related to different valuation of the fluids produced by the two reservoirs. Dynamic prioritization with weights performed better results than fixed apportionment to shared platform capacities. We obtained different improvements in the project development optimization due to the anticipation of financial returns and CAPEX changes, due mainly from adequate well apportionment by different management algorithm. Well management algorithms implemented in traditional simulators are not developed to prioritize different reservoir wells separately, especially if there are different economic conditions exemplified here by a different valuation of produced fluids. This valuation should be taken into account in the short term optimization for wells.

Development of Black Oil Correlations for approximation of PVT properties for Integrated Production Modeling for Heera Oil Field.

Integrated Production Modeling approach mainly aims at integrating the Inflow performance and Outflow Performance of oil wells along with the analysis of the multiphase flow through wellhead up to the processing plant. Results of Reservoir and Production simulation studies heavily rely upon the accuracy of the PVT data as input. It is observed that sufficient high-quality experimental data from PVT Lab are not always available for fluids characterization. It makes the use of PVT modeling with Equation of state (EOS), Simulation techniques, and other statistical and empirical regression approaches viz. Black Oil Correlations to provide approximations of these PVT physical properties. Black Oil Correlations developed by previous researchers were based on crudes of different geologic locations with different crude compositions, paraffinicity and chemical properties and have their own range of applicability. Hence, for the reservoir fluids of a new study area, to achieve better approximation of PVT properties new regional correlations are required. In this work, a study has been made for determination of the four most important PVT properties based on limited available lab determined PVT data sets, by developing four regional black oil PVT correlations for (i) Bubble Point Pressure (ii) Oil Formation Volume Factor (iii) Solution Gas Oil Ratio and (iv) Dead Oil Viscosity, for a part of Heera Oil Field of Western Indian Offshore. These correlations were developed by taking reference of a few existing correlations and determined the new coefficients by Non-linear regression analysis. Comparative error analysis shows that these correlations are capable of better approximations of these physical properties with least Average Percentage Relative Error and Average Absolute Percentage Relative Error. Hence found as best suitable for the reservoir fluids of Heera Field. These correlations may be useful for calculation of important PVT data required for Integrated Production Modeling and optimization of Heera Field wells and for any oil field with similar geologic location and with reservoir fluids having similar ranges of physical properties.

An assessment of hydrates inhibition in deepwater production systems using low-dosage hydrate inhibitor and monoethylene glycol

In this study, a deepwater pipeline-riser system that experienced hydrates was modelled in MAXIMUS 6.20 (an integrated production modelling tool) to understand, predict and mitigate hydrates formation in typical deepwater system. Highlights of the results from this study suggest that the injection of low-dosage hydrate inhibitors (LDHIs) into the hydrate-forming structures within the multiphase flow stream disperses the hydrates particles in an irregular manner and subsequently decreases the nucleation rate of the hydrate and prevents the formation of hydrates. This study found that the cost of using monoethylene glycol was significantly higher than that of LDHI by over $500/day although low-dosage hydrate inhibitors have initial relatively high CAPEX. In the long run, its OPEX is relatively low, making it cost-effective for hydrate inhibition in deepwater scenarios.

Impact of saline intrusion and adaptation options on rice- and fish-farming households in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam

Saline intrusion is threatening rice- and fish-farming households in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam. This study was conducted, based on interviews with 390 rice- and fish-farming households in An Giang, Can Tho, and Soc Trang—upstream, midstream, and downstream provinces, respectively—in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. The results revealed that saltwater intensively intruded inland during the dry season and seriously affected rice- and fish-farming households. Not only the productivity of rice and fish was affected, but also household income, and the quality of natural resources and environment deteriorated. The fish-farming households faced the most serious effects and had fewer adaptation options compared to households undertaking farming with rice and integrated rice- and fish-farming. Households in all groups have developed adaptation options following the increasing degree of salinity, including: (1) changing their agricultural activity calendar, (2) using tolerant rice varieties and fish species, (3) changing cropping patterns and farming practices, (4) applying integrated production models, and (5) diversifying non-farming activities.

The use of integrated production modelling to assess network efficiency and production system optimisation

This paper investigates the use of integrated production models to apply a consistent and repeatable approach to assess petroleum production network efficiency and aid production system optimisation. Assessing network efficiency in the manner detailed in this paper allows petroleum professionals to define a maximum network production through the analysis of the pressure drop within a network. This is achieved by comparing the system base production to a simulation of theoretical wellhead water separation (for all inflows), larger diameters of all surface pipelines (double the diameter is used as a maximum case) and a combination of the two using integrated production modelling (IPM). The combination of water separation and larger diameter of all the pipelines represented the maximum network production possible for tangible projects. This allowed the definition of network efficiency value of a petroleum production system on a scale of 0% to 100%. At a screening level, the lower the Network Efficiency Metric (NEM) the greater the likelihood of an optimisation opportunity, prompting additional assessment of special cases. This method was applied to a network of 40 wells using IPM, and NEM values of 95.9% (water separation), 94.6% (double pipeline diameter) and 83.5% (combined) were obtained. These values of network efficiency also corresponded to incremental reserve difference of 4.3, 5.8 and 20.1 Bscf, respectively. The NEM was a crucial component of the screening process and demonstrated an alternative and efficient method for the identification of optimisation projects, which increased production and reserves.

A Methodological Note for the Development of Integrated Aquaculture Production Models

Aquaculture production can yield significant economic, social and environmental effects. These exceed the financial costs and benefits aquaculture producers are faced with. We propose a methodology for the development of integrated production models that allow for the inclusion of the socio-economic and environmental effects of aquaculture into the production management. The methodology develops on a Social Cost-Benefit Analysis context and it includes three parts: i) environmental, that captures the interactions of aquaculture with the environment, ii) economic, that makes provision for the incorporation of economic determinants in the production models and iii) social, that introduces the social preferences to the production and management process. Alternatives to address data availability issues are also discussed. The methodology extends the assessment of the costs and benefits of aquaculture beyond pure financial metrics and beyond the quantification of private costs and benefits. It can also support the development of integrated models of aquaculture production that take into consideration both the private and the social costs and benefits associated with externalities and effects not appropriately captured by market mechanisms. The methodology can support aquaculture management and policies targeting sustainable and efficient aquaculture production and financing from an economic, financial, social and environmental point of view.

Maiella, an oil massif in the Central Apennines ridge of Italy: exploration, production and innovation in the oil fields of Abruzzo across the nineteenth and twentieth centuries

Abstract This article aims to present selected episodes of the scientific and entrepreneurial activities realized in the Majella oil district, Abruzzo, central Italy, between the 1830s and the 1940s. Majella had an important role in the early process of modernization of the Italian oil industry. As we will see, the application of science and technology in the wellsite, a pioneering integrated production model, unexpected environmental constraints and the longevity of the business made Abruzzo into a benchmark. Between 1864 and 1865, the pattern of the secular and unchanged local manufacturing of bitumen, based on human labour and the manual harvesting of the mineral from natural outcrops, was outdone by two new conditions: the study of subsoil and the utilization of mechanical drilling. These early records of paid oil consultancies and the utilization of steam power were followed by the impressive, but short and illusory, peak in production never recorded before. In the following decades, the Majella district was very active and drew the attention of several international operators, in spite of the declining production of crude – compensated for by the yield of bitumen and shales – and the unstoppable rising of the Emilian Apennine ridge in the provinces of Pavia, Piacenza and Parma. From the early 1900s, foreign companies gradually reduced investment in new exploration in Maiella, where the core production was now bitumen and asphalts rather than oil and, by the 1920s, most of the industry was controlled by government authorities and local business. The advent of Fascism in the 1930s saw Maiella become a stronghold of the autarchy's policies; later, the improvised and inefficient national fuel planning of Italy at the start of the Second World War saw Abruzzo's oil and bitumen supplies become a strategic resource. The Maiella district has the longest production history in Italy and today geoscientists are surveying and interpreting the geology of the area with a new perspective.