Integrated Modeling Tool Research Articles

Optimising seafood nutritional value and environmental sustainability in aquaculture through a novel integrated modelling tool applicable to IMTA and monoculture

Aquaculture policies that decrease the reliance on wild-caught fish and promote integrated multi-trophic aquaculture (IMTA) both aim to lessen the environmental footprint but often overlook economic-environmental trade-offs and neglect social, health, and broad-scale sustainability considerations. Here we present a new bio-physical model (FYNE) that bridges some of these gaps, by linking farm operational choices, such as feed choices and farm siting, with the nutritional value of the farm-gate seafood products and the resulting environmental eutrophication footprint at the farm level. The FYNE model operates both in conditions of monoculture or of IMTA production, and estimates feed composition effects on growth and omega-3 fatty acid content of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and blue mussel (Mytilus edulis), and nitrogen and carbon concentrations, the latter being a measure of the environmental eutrophication footprint of the farm. The model here developed integrates for the first time (i) an ecosystem model of an IMTA and (ii) a fatty acid dynamics model, with new models for salmon feed digestibility and mussel ingestion. The outputs span (i) production analysis for simulation of biomass; (ii) farm mass-balance analysis on deposition analysis and environmental eutrophication footprint; and (iii) product nutritional quality, in terms of fatty acid content. An application of the model to an IMTA farm in Scotland (UK) demonstrates how fatty acid and environmental changes can be modelled in tandem and could be used to support the industry to optimize the nutritional value of cultured species and manage aquatic environmental eutrophication footprint at farm level, informing feed and siting decisions. The model effectively predicts changes in omega-3 fatty acids, particularly DHA and EPA, in response to variations in feed composition. Notably, our results confirm that salmon waste has limited influence on mussel growth due to the spatial separation within the IMTA system, which emphasizes the need for strategic siting to enhance system productivity through effective waste recycling. Additionally, results show that while increasing fishmeal in diets enhances environmental outcomes, it reduces levels of critical fatty acids like DHA and EPA, underscoring the need for balanced feed formulations. The method developed in this study described a novel integrated model (FYNE) that extend previous modelling work by incorporating the influence of farmed species feed composition on fatty acid dynamics as well as the farming environmental factors.

Land Subsidence Due to Groundwater Exploitation in Unconfined Aquifers: Experimental and Numerical Assessment with Computational Fluid Dynamics

Land subsidence is a global challenge that enhances the vulnerability of aquifers where climate change and driving forces are occurring simultaneously. To comprehensively analyze this issue, integrated modeling tools are essential. This study advances the simulation of subsidence using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD); it assessed the effects of exploitation and recharge of groundwater on the vertical displacement of coarse and fine sands in a laboratory-scale aquifer. A model was developed by integrating the Navier–Stokes equations to study the groundwater flow and Terzaghi’s law for the vertical displacement of sands. The boundary conditions used were Dirichlet based on the changes in the hydraulic head over time. The specific storage coefficient was used to calibrate the model. The findings confirmed that subsidence occurs at slower rates in soil with fine sands with average particle diameters of 0.39 mm than in coarse sands with average particle diameters of 0.67 mm. The maximum discrepancy between the experimental and the numerical reaffirms that CFD platforms can be used to simulate subsidence dynamics and potentially allow the simultaneous simulation of other dynamics. Concluding remarks and recommendations are highlighted considering the up-to-date advances and future work to improve the research on subsidence in unconfined aquifers.

Flexible, integrated modeling of tokamak stability, transport, equilibrium, and pedestal physics

The STEP (Stability, Transport, Equilibrium, and Pedestal) integrated-modeling tool has been developed in OMFIT to predict stable, tokamak equilibria self-consistently with core-transport and pedestal calculations. STEP couples theory-based codes to integrate a variety of physics, including magnetohydrodynamic stability, transport, equilibrium, pedestal formation, and current-drive, heating, and fueling. The input/output of each code is interfaced with a centralized ITER-Integrated Modelling & Analysis Suite data structure, allowing codes to be run in any order and enabling open-loop, feedback, and optimization workflows. This paradigm simplifies the integration of new codes, making STEP highly extensible. STEP has been verified against a published benchmark of six different integrated models. Core-pedestal calculations with STEP have been successfully validated against individual DIII-D H-mode discharges and across more than 500 discharges of the H98,y2 database, with a mean error in confinement time from experiment less than 19%. STEP has also reproduced results in less conventional DIII-D scenarios, including negative-central-shear and negative-triangularity plasmas. Predictive STEP modeling has been used to assess performance in several tokamak reactors. Simulations of a high-field, large-aspect-ratio reactor show significantly lower fusion power than predicted by a zero-dimensional study, demonstrating the limitations of scaling-law extrapolations. STEP predictions have found promising scenarios for an EXhaust and Confinement Integration Tokamak Experiment, including a high-pressure, 80%-bootstrap-fraction plasma. ITER modeling with STEP has shown that pellet fueling enhances fusion gain in both the baseline and advanced-inductive scenarios. Finally, STEP predictions for the SPARC baseline scenario are in good agreement with published results from the physics basis.

Numerical tools for burning plasmas

The software stack under development within a European coordinated effort on tools for burning plasma modelling is presented. The project is organised as a Task (TSVV Task 10) under the new E-TASC initiative (Litaudon et al 2022 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 64 034005). This is a continued effort within the EUROfusion inheriting from the earlier European coordination projects as well as research projects based at various European laboratories. The ongoing work of the TSVV Tasks is supported by the Advanced Computing Hubs. Major projects requiring the high performance computing (HPC) resources are global gyrokinetic codes and global hybrid particle-magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) codes. Also applications using the integrated modelling tools, such as the Energetic-Particle Workflow, based on the ITER Integrated Modelling & Analysis Suite (IMAS), or the code package for modelling radio-frequency heating and fast-ion generation may require intensive computation and a substantial memory footprint. The continual development of these codes both on the physics side and on the HPC side allows us to tackle frontier problems, such as the interaction of turbulence with MHD-type modes in the presence of fast particles. One of the important mandated outcomes of the E-TASC project is the IMAS-enabling of EUROfusion codes and release of the software stack to the EUROfusion community.

Technology Focus: Production Monitoring (March 2023)

The oil and gas industry continues to face challenges. We have witnessed volatility in commodity prices (oil supply outstripping demand, leading to overall market slowdown), the COVID-19 pandemic affecting production and supply chains around the world, labor shortages, facilities-security issues, and the need to prepare for the energy transition, just to name a few. Operators, now more than ever, need to make the most of their assets, not only maintaining production but also understanding what is happening around the clock to be able to prevent potential threats or situations that may escalate and affect operations. New sensors and innovative uses of existing technology are allowing access to a variety of data that can be incorporated into integrated work flows and modeling tools for better understanding of the production system. There are initial signs of operations moving toward the use of real-time models supporting decision making, enabling fast response to external changes, and improved forecasting, resulting in overall improved asset performance. New technology and innovation in production monitoring is focusing more and more on data integration and the use of integrated work flows. Significant attention is being paid to leveraging digital technology (e.g., remote operations, advanced data analysis tools) and improving the accuracy of measured data for better surveillance planning aiming at efficiency gains. Some examples of advances in the past year include the following: - Successful integration of data from permanent reservoir monitoring systems into reservoir models, allowing a better understanding of reservoir changes in waterflooding applications, showing the value of 4D data - Demonstration of the value of using fiber optics (e.g., for distributed acoustic and distributed temperature sensing) for a variety of use cases including well-flow profiling, calibration of fracture propagation models, and understanding well interference - New sensors to monitor pressure and temperature beyond well-integrity barriers in zones with reduced clearance, just ready for field testing - Use of traditional acquired data (e.g., pressure) to infer inter- and intrazone well interference, affordable integration of tracers with sleeve technology for completion and reservoir diagnostic in horizontal wells - Digital methods such as machine learning and artificial intelligence for data interpretation and forecasting and even to serve as surrogate measurements to provide multiphase flow data (i.e., virtual flowmeters). Recommended additional reading at OnePetro: www.onepetro.org. SPE 210270 Innovative Applications of Oil-Soluble Tracers in Unstimulated and Stimulated Multistage Horizontal Wells for Long-Term Flow Assurance and Production Monitoring by Venky Ramanathan, Torxen Energy, et al. URTeC 3723767 Virtual Flow Metering for Continuous Real-Time Production Monitoring of Unconventional Wells by Torgeir Vanvik, Turbulent Flux, et al. SPE 204662 Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics for Virtual Flow Metering by Anton Gryzlov, Aramco Innovations, et al.

Legacy Gulf of Mexico Oil and Gas Facilities Hold Promise for Role in Blue Economy

_ This article, written by JPT Technology Editor Chris Carpenter, contains highlights of paper OTC 31940, “Repurposing Gulf of Mexico Oil and Gas Facilities for the Blue Economy,” by Roy Robinson, SPE, Excipio Energy; Georg Englemann, Diamond Infrastructure Development; and Kent Saterlee, Gulf Offshore Research Institute. The paper has not been peer reviewed. _ This synopsis presents portions of the results of a Department of Energy (DOE) study of the potential for repurposing legacy oil and gas facilities in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) for uses in a blue economy. The study was limited and was designed to summarize practical options for repurposing. The conclusions list those areas in which further modeling or studies are warranted, with the objective of building an integrated modeling tool to assist companies, government agencies, and nongovernmental organizations in assessing benefits and risks of repurposing facilities. Scope Limits of the Repurposing Study The term “blue economy” is defined by the World Bank as a sustainable use of ocean resources for economic growth, improved livelihoods and jobs, and ocean ecosystem health. The study upon which the paper is based was confined to the repurposing of oil and gas facilities in the GOM, specifically platforms, wells, pipelines, and rights of way. Producing, idle, and abandoned assets were considered. The objective was to explore how leveraging these existing facilities can reduce the carbon load of offshore oil and gas production, speed the energy transition by tapping the tremendous energy potential of the ocean, reduce US dependence on imported seafood and minerals, and create secure long-term employment along the Gulf Coast. Energy Resource Potential and Definition In 2020, the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), at the request of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), produced a report on the renewable energy potential of the GOM. NREL divides resource assessments into gross and technical potential. “Gross” is intended to be the total available resource. “Technical” is based on NREL’s assessment of how much of the resource could be captured economically using proven technology. Details are included in the complete paper because the NREL/BOEM report has caused some questions to be raised by those reviewing the DOE study. The authors’ commentary on this report is detailed in the complete paper.

An Analysis of Agricultural Systems Modelling Approaches and Examples to Support Future Policy Development under Disruptive Changes in New Zealand

Agricultural systems have entered a period of significant disruption due to impacts from change drivers, increasingly stringent environmental regulations and the need to reduce unwanted discharges, and emerging technologies and biotechnologies. Governments and industries are developing strategies to respond to the risks and opportunities associated with these disruptors. Modelling is a useful tool for system conceptualisation, understanding, and scenario testing. Today, New Zealand and other nations need integrated modelling tools at the national scale to help industries and stakeholders plan for future disruptive changes. In this paper, following a scoping review process, we analyse modelling approaches and available agricultural systems’ model examples per thematic applications at the regional to national scale to define the best options for the national policy development. Each modelling approach has specificities, such as stakeholder engagement capacity, complex systems reproduction, predictive or prospective scenario testing, and users should consider coupling approaches for greater added value. The efficiency of spatial decision support tools working with a system dynamics approach can help holistically in stakeholders’ participation and understanding, and for improving land planning and policy. This model combination appears to be the most appropriate for the New Zealand national context.

Neural network based fast prediction of β N limits in HL-2M

Artificial neural networks (NNs) are trained, based on the numerical database, to predict the no-wall and ideal-wall β N limits, due to onset of the n = 1 (n is the toroidal mode number) ideal external kink instability, for the HL-2M tokamak. The database is constructed by toroidal computations utilizing both the equilibrium code CHEASE (Lütjens et al 1992 Comput. Phys. Commun. 69 287) and the stability code MARS-F (Liu et al 2000 Phys. Plasmas 7 3681). The stability results show that (1) the plasma elongation generally enhances both β N limits, for either positive or negative triangularity plasmas; (2) the effect is more pronounced for positive triangularity plasmas; (3) the computed no-wall β N limit linearly scales with the plasma internal inductance, with the proportionality coefficient ranging between 1 and 5 for HL-2M; (4) the no-wall limit substantially decreases with increasing pressure peaking factor. Furthermore, both the NN model and the convolutional neural network (CNN) model are trained and tested, producing consistent results. The trained NNs predict both the no-wall and ideal-wall limits with as high as 95% accuracy, compared to those directly computed by the stability code. Additional test cases, produced by the Tokamak Simulation Code (Jardin et al 1993 Nucl. Fusion 33 371), also show reasonable performance of the trained NNs, with the relative error being within 10%. The constructed database provides effective references for the future HL-2M operations. The trained NNs can be used as a real-time monitor for disruption prevention in the HL-2M experiments, or serve as part of the integrated modeling tools for ideal kink stability analysis.

Defining and Characterizing Habitable Environments in Ocean World Systems

We explore the major characteristics of habitable environments on ocean worlds and how we can study them using Earth analogs and autonomous instrumentation. Earth analogs for habitable regions on ocean worlds include interfaces (e.g., ice-water and seafloor-water boundaries), hydrothermal systems, and inside of ice, snow, clathrates, and crustal rocks. These analogs are best known in Earth’s ocean, but they may also exist on Earth’s land, particularly in polar regions. Importantly, ocean habitability requires that parts of the planetary body interact dynamically with the ocean. Probing the habitability of currently inaccessible extraterrestrial ocean worlds will require establishing biogenicity and abiotic reference frames for organic compounds on ocean worlds and technological advances to explore subsurface liquid water environments beyond Earth. Next generation studies of ocean world habitability will also require integrated modeling tools and coordination between the Earth/ocean sciences and the planetary science communities.

Using species distribution models only may underestimate climate change impacts on future marine biodiversity

In face of global changes, projecting and mapping biodiversity changes are of critical importance to support management and conservation measures of marine ecosystems. Despite the development of a wide variety of ecosystem models capable of integrating an increasing number of ecological processes, most projections of climate-induced changes in marine biodiversity are based on species distribution models (SDMs). These correlative models present a significant advantage when the lack of knowledge on the species physiology is counterbalanced by the availability of relevant environmental variables over the species geographical range. However, correlative SDMs neglect intra- and inter-specific interactions and thereby can lead to biased projections of changes in biodiversity distribution. To evaluate the influence of trophic interactions on projections of species richness and assemblage composition under climate change scenarios, we compared biodiversity projections derived from an ensemble of different SDMs to projections derived from a hybrid model coupling SDMs and a multispecies trophic model in the Mediterranean Sea. Our results show that accounting for trophic interactions modifies projections of future biodiversity in the Mediterranean Sea. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, SDMs tended to overestimate the gains and underestimate the losses of species richness by the end of the 21st century, with marked local differences in projections, both in terms of magnitude and trend, in some biodiversity hotspots. In both SDMs and hybrid approaches, nestedness with gains in species richness was the main pattern driving dissimilarity between present and future fish and macro-invertebrate species assemblages at the Mediterranean basin scale. However, at local scale, we highlighted some differences in the relative contribution of nestedness vs replacement in driving dissimilarity. Our results call for the development of integrated modelling tools that can mechanistically consider multiple biotic and abiotic drivers to improve projections of future marine biodiversity.

Why so skeptical? The role of animals in fluvial geomorphology

AbstractDespite acknowledgement of zoogeomorphological impacts and a positive trajectory for biogeomorphology, the cumulative geomorphic significance of animals remains largely unknown across geomorphic scales. We do not know the proportion of erosion, transport and deposition that is mediated by animal activity in different environments and cannot answer questions like how changing animal distributions under climate change will affect sediment fluxes and landscapes? This partly reflects a healthy skepticism about the net significance of biological energy and zoogeomorphic processes when set against the orthodox assumption that geophysical energy dominates. Zoogeomorphology is regarded as a “niche” interest, or worse, as inconsequential. Drawing on examples from fluvial geomorphology, this essay challenges that skepticism with the aim of encouraging greater consideration of the relevance of coupled biomorphodynamic systems. Five assumptions that belittle the role of animals are considered: that the number of species acting as geomorphic agents is small and their abundance limited; that limited geographical extent and periods of activity preclude widespread effects; and that impacts on sediment fluxes and morphological change are insignificant. In the hope that some skepticism is overcome, four interrelated challenges for future research are outlined: empirical investigation of zoogeomorphic processes, scaling‐up process understanding, embracing new technologies and approaches, and developing suitably integrated modeling tools. Such advances, alongside a willingness to recognize coupled biomorphodynamic interactions as the norm, rather than the exception, can improve our ability to understand both geomorphological and ecological phenomena and transform our understanding of how landscapes interact with the animals that live on, and in, them.This article is categorized under:Water and Life > Conservation, Management, and AwarenessWater and Life > Nature of Freshwater Ecosystems

Estimating Road Transport Pollutant Emissions Under Traffic-Congested Conditions with an Integrated Modelling Tool—Emissions Reduction Scenarios Analysis

Estimating Road Transport Pollutant Emissions Under Traffic-Congested Conditions with an Integrated Modelling Tool—Emissions Reduction Scenarios Analysis

Pyomo.GDP: an ecosystem for logic based modeling and optimization development

We present three core principles for engineering-oriented integrated modeling and optimization tool sets—intuitive modeling contexts, systematic computer-aided reformulations, and flexible solution strategies—and describe how new developments in Pyomo.GDP for Generalized Disjunctive Programming (GDP) advance this vision. We describe a new logical expression system implementation for Pyomo.GDP allowing for a more intuitive description of logical propositions. The logical expression system supports automated reformulation of these logical constraints to linear constraints. We also describe two new logic-based global optimization solver implementations built on Pyomo.GDP that exploit logical structure to avoid “zero-flow” numerical difficulties that arise in nonlinear network design problems when nodes or streams disappear. These new solvers also demonstrate the capability to link to external libraries for expanded functionality within an integrated implementation. We present these new solvers in the context of a flexible array of solution paths available to GDP models. Finally, we present results on a new library of GDP models demonstrating the value of multiple solution approaches.

An OMA-SIM Approach to Study OMA Kinetics for the Cleanup of Marine Oil Spill

Breaking waves can break oil slicks into fine droplets and entrain them in the water column. An interesting hypothesis has emerged in recent years that oil droplets and mineral fines may form Oil-Mineral Aggregates (OMAs) and enhance oil dispersion in aquatic environments. The present research investigated physical processes of marine oil spills, including oil slick breakup, the formation of OMAs, and oil/OMAs vertical mixing. In this study, a modeling approach is developed for simulating the formation and vertical mixing of oil droplets and OMAs, namely Oil Droplet and OMAs Simulation (OMA-SIM). This integrated modeling tool combines the oil vertical mixing model and density-based OMAs formation model to examine the dispersion of oil droplets and OMAs. The OMA-SIM is validated using data obtained from a mesoscale wave tank experimental study. Simulation results show that the energy dissipation rate of breaking waves is the predominant factor affecting the concentration and particle size of formed oil droplets and OMAs. It also confirms that oil viscosity has a significant influence on dispersed oil concentration. High temperature, low oil viscosity, together with more formed OMAs lead to a higher concentration of dissolved oil. Other findings based on the validated OMA-SIM approach include that: the dispersants reduce oil/water interfacial tension and decrease the size of oil droplets and OMAs, and the application of mineral fines facilitates the formation of OMAs. This study indicates that the OMA-SIM is an effective modeling tool for examining the vertical dispersion of spilled oil with or without the use of dispersant and other green particle materials like mineral fines under breaking waves.

Integrated energy-water-land nexus planning to guide national policy: an example from Uruguay

Despite broad consensus on the benefits of a nexus approach to multi-sector planning, actual implementation in government and other decision-making institutions is still rare. This study presents an approach to conducting integrated energy-water-land (EWL) planning, using Uruguay as an example. This stakeholder-driven study focuses on assessing the EWL nexus implications of actual planned policies aimed at strengthening three of Uruguay’s key exports (beef, soy, and rice), which account for more than 40% of total national export revenue. Five scenarios are analyzed in the study: a reference scenario, a climate impacts scenario, and three policy scenarios. The three policy scenarios include measures such as increasing the intensity of beef production while simultaneously decreasing emissions, increasing irrigated soybean production, and improving rice yields. This study supplements previous sector-specific planning efforts in Uruguay by conducting the first stakeholder-driven integrated multi-sector assessment of planned policies in Uruguay using a suite of integrated modeling tools. Key insights from the study are: as compared to a reference scenario, improving beef productivity could lead to cropland expansion (+30%) and significant indirect increases in water requirements (+20%); improving rice yields could lead to increases in total emissions (+3%), which may partially offset emissions reductions from other policies; expanding irrigated soy could have the least EWL impacts amongst the policies studied; and climate-driven changes could have significantly less impact on EWL systems as compared to human actions. The generalizable insights derived from this analysis are readily applicable to other countries facing similar multi-sector planning challenges. In particular, the study’s results reinforce the fact that policies often have multi-sector consequences, and thus policies can impact one another’s efficacy. Thus, policy design and implementation can benefit from coordination across sectors and decision-making institutions.

Evaluating the Risks of Groundwater Extraction in an Agricultural Landscape under Different Climate Projections

Groundwater resources worldwide are being depleted at alarming rates since 1960 to support agriculture, industry, and domestic water demand. Water harvesting and the implementation of reduced application or more efficient irrigation technologies were identified as two of the most efficient practices to mitigate the declining patterns on groundwater resources. However, prior to implementing these practices, understanding how groundwater interacts with surface water and responds to natural and anthropogenic stressors is crucial. Integrated modeling tools that are able to exchange fluxes in both domains are needed to assess how conservation practices will affect our water resources under different projected climate and land use scenarios. This study aimed to evaluate the most likely impacts of current land management practices under the most severe projections of future climate and quantify the potential mitigation effects of three conservation scenarios on the water resources of the Fort Cobb Reservoir Experimental Watershed (FCREW) in western Oklahoma. The semicoupled SWAT-MODFLOW (SWATmf) model was used to simulate the hydrologic responses of the FCREW to a 50% reduction in the irrigation depths and the transition of 50% and 75% of croplands to rangelands under 32 distinct climate projections. Results showed that future climate can drive a reduction in the streamflow (−18%) and an increase to the depth of the water table (99%–120%) in the western part of the FCREW by the end of the century. The Fort Cobb Reservoir was expected to reduce its release after the mid-2060s to maintain its current target level. All the scenarios, aimed at decreasing groundwater extractions or implementing conservation measures, signaled a full recovery response in the groundwater levels 7–10 years after the year the conservation practices were implemented. The 50% reduction in the irrigation depths was found to elicit faster hydrologic systemic responses than the two that implemented conservation measures, which contravene tradition and would imply cessation of agricultural activities. This study can enable stakeholders to formulate timely adaptation and mitigating strategies to adopt to land use changes.

Modelling a ‘business case’ for blue-green infrastructure: lessons from the Water Sensitive Cities Toolkit

AbstractStormwater management through Blue-Green Infrastructure (BGI) delivers multiple benefits across urban environments. However, current integrated modelling tools fail to provide a simplified way of assessing these benefits. In this study, we reflected upon the development of an interdisciplinary BGI planning-support tool, known as the Water Sensitive Cities Toolkit (the WSC Toolkit) and offer guidance for effective tool development going forward. Based on interdisciplinary research, the WSC Toolkit incorporates a suite of independent sub-modules but can be connected together to provide integrated assessment, allowing evidence-based quantification of multiple benefits associated with BGI, e.g., stormwater treatment and harvesting, stream hydrology, erosion, minor flooding, urban microclimate, etc. Distinguished from other larger complex models, the WSC Toolkit was characterised by its simplicity, modularity and extensibility, providing scenario-based integrated assessment of these benefits. Through case studies, we demonstrated how the WSC Toolkit can be used to support improved decision-making towards maximising the benefits of BGI. We also showed how it can act as a platform for practical application of latest research outcomes and meanwhile encouraging interdisciplinary collaboration. We reflect upon five key lessons that could guide future researchers in developing effective integrated assessment tools, particularly within highly interdisciplinary fields such as BGI.

Participatory water management modelling in the Athabasca River Basin

Water is often used for a variety of conflicting purposes. Furthermore, as water is a dynamic resource, its equitable allocation across boundaries often poses problems for involved stakeholders. Integrated water resource management (IWRM) aims to promote the coordinated management of water across all boundaries. In theory IWRM is an effective solution to address multiple conflicting uses: however, in practice it is difficult to implement. This paper presents a case-study of an IWRM initiative in which the key component of participatory modelling is played out. Other important processes are integrated as well, such as problem structuring, social learning, and stakeholder engagement. In 2016-2017, approximately 30 stakeholders representing industry, municipalities, environmental NGOs, and federal/provincial government collaborated in order to explore opportunities to achieve sustainable watershed management in the Athabasca River Basin, Alberta Canada. Stress scenarios (including potential changes in climate, land use, and water use) were developed and used to test a series of water management strategies throughout the basin. These strategies were simulated within an integrated modelling tool in a live setting. Through this interactive process, promising strategies for sustainable water management were explored, and a series of recommendations for policy makers were identified. Recommendations include, but are not limited to, identifying areas for land conservation and reclamation priority, establishing in-stream flow need targets, and reducing water navigation limitations in the lower basin. Outlined through this paper, this case-study shows that examples of real-world participatory modelling efforts are in fact possible.

Cross-sectoral and trans-national interactions in national-scale climate change impacts assessment\u2014the case of the Czech Republic

Assessing the combined impacts of future climate and socio-economic change at the country level is vital for supporting national adaptation policies. Here, we use a novel modelling approach to study the systemic impacts of climate and socio-economic changes on the Czech Republic, taking account of cross-sectoral interactions between agriculture, water, forestry, land-use and biodiversity, and, for the first time, trans-national interactions. We evaluate the national-level baseline results, scenario-neutral model sensitivities, and climate and socio-economic scenario impacts using a European-scale integrated modelling tool. Consistently across most climate and socio-economic scenarios, the Czech Republic is projected to have increasing importance as a crop-growing region in Europe, due to an increased competitive advantage within the continent. Arable land in the Czech Republic expands, at the expense of livestock farming and forestry, with associated impacts of increased water scarcity and reduced biodiversity for the country. Accounting for trans-national interactions in national-scale assessments provides more realistic assessments of impacts and helps to identify the changing role of the country within its regional and continental domain. Such improved understanding can support policy-makers in developing national adaptation actions that reduce adverse impacts and realise opportunities.

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and influencing mechanism of ecosystem services in the Pearl River Delta from the perspective of LUCC

Land use/land cover change (LUCC) has considerable impact on ecosystem services. It is essential to quantify the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of ecosystem services from the perspective of LUCC, which will benefit regional land management and ecological protection. We analyzed land use change in the Pearl River Delta from 2000 to 2015, and we used a spatially explicit integrated modeling tool (InVEST) for quantification of ecosystem services–water yield, carbon storage, soil retention, and food supply. The results revealed increases in the areas of grassland and built-up land, and decreases in the areas of woodland, cropland, water body, and unused land during 2000 to 2015, which have caused increase in water yield and carbon storage, while decrease in soil retention and food supply. The dynamic changes of woodland, grassland, cropland, and built-up land were the main driving factors in the relationship of trade-offs and synergies among the four ecosystem services, which are ubiquitous. Those all illustrate the importance of considering ecosystem services in decision making related to land use and land management.