An Analysis of Agricultural Systems Modelling Approaches and Examples to Support Future Policy Development under Disruptive Changes in New Zealand

Clémence Vannier,Thomas A Cochrane,Larry Bellamy,Peyman Zawar Reza

doi:10.3390/app12052746

Abstract

Agricultural systems have entered a period of significant disruption due to impacts from change drivers, increasingly stringent environmental regulations and the need to reduce unwanted discharges, and emerging technologies and biotechnologies. Governments and industries are developing strategies to respond to the risks and opportunities associated with these disruptors. Modelling is a useful tool for system conceptualisation, understanding, and scenario testing. Today, New Zealand and other nations need integrated modelling tools at the national scale to help industries and stakeholders plan for future disruptive changes. In this paper, following a scoping review process, we analyse modelling approaches and available agricultural systems’ model examples per thematic applications at the regional to national scale to define the best options for the national policy development. Each modelling approach has specificities, such as stakeholder engagement capacity, complex systems reproduction, predictive or prospective scenario testing, and users should consider coupling approaches for greater added value. The efficiency of spatial decision support tools working with a system dynamics approach can help holistically in stakeholders’ participation and understanding, and for improving land planning and policy. This model combination appears to be the most appropriate for the New Zealand national context.

Highlights

The future of agriculture depends on the system’s responses to the global challenges of climate change adaptation, carbon emission reduction, water availability, water quality restoration, and ecosystem services’ provision
There is currently an urgent need for a national scale agricultural systems modelling in NZ to address key questions of the sector, due to critical global environmental, socioeconomic, and technological disruptions
There are a number of models available for agricultural systems modelling, none are intended to be used for modelling major national or regional disruptions to agriculture, or their usability outside inbuilt geographic boundaries is low

Summary

Introduction

The future of agriculture depends on the system’s responses to the global challenges of climate change adaptation, carbon emission reduction, water availability, water quality restoration, and ecosystem services’ provision. The most studied of global change challenges, is already causing major disruptions in food supply due to yield losses and subsequent chain reactions on socio-economic systems [4,5]. Fever outbreak [6,7], socio economic factors (war, conflict, etc.), trade restrictions/barriers or agreements [8], new food consumption trends [9,10], and disruptive technologies such as cowless milk [11]. Technology can be a positive factor: precision agriculture to optimise yields and minimise nutrient losses [12,13], biotechnology such as the use of seaweed for reduction of methane emissions [14,15], water/irrigation optimisation, and efficiency improvements [16], and others. The range of potential beneficial and detrimental disruptive elements highlight the urgent need to address long-term sustainability of agricultural systems [17,18]

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Methods

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Discussion

Conclusion