Integrated Modeling Environment Research Articles

Building a high-resolution regional climate model for the Heihe River Basin and simulating precipitation over this region

Based on the Regional Integrated Environmental Model System (RIEMS 2.0) developed by START TEA-COM RRC and Department of Atmospheric Science of Nanjing University, a dataset of observation and remote sensing over the Heihe River Basin (HRB) was used to recalibrate the model’s parameters, including topography elevation, land cover type, saturated soil water potential, saturated soil hydraulic conductivity, field moisture capacity, wilting point moisture, soil porosity, and parameter b of soil hydraulic conductivity, to build a high-resolution regional climate model for the HRB. Continuous simulation for the period from January 1 to December 31, 2000 was conducted using the regional climate model, with NCEP-FNL reanalysis data as the driving fields. The study focused on the ability of the model to simulate precipitation in the HRB. The analysis results showed the following: (1) For precipitation, the model could reproduce well the spatial pattern and seasonal cycle in different regions of the HRB, simulated precipitation was overestimated in the upper reaches of the HRB and underestimated in the lower reaches of the HRB, and seasonal precipitation biases were mostly in the range of −39.9%–9.6% of observations, which is mostly consistent with the IPCC report (2001). (2) The model could reproduce reasonably temporal evolution of pentad precipitation in different regions. Correlation coefficients between the simulated and observed pentad precipitation were 0.8123, 0.5064, and 0.7033 in the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the HRB, respectively. They reached a significance level of 1%. (3) Dynamical downscaling of a high-resolution regional climate model was used to overcome the deficiency of long-term, high-temporal/spatial-resolution meteorological dataset in the HRB, and to drive directly the integrated model that coupled ecological-hydrological and socioeconomic processes in the HRB.

The improvement of a regional climate model by coupling a land surface model with eco-physiological processes: A case study in 1998

The Atmospheric-Vegetation Interaction Model (AVIM) is coupled with a Regional Integrated Environment Modeling System (RIEMS) to improve the regional simulation of climate variables. A case study in 1998 is implemented to study the improvement mechanism through land-air interaction in East Asia, especially in Asian summer monsoon regions. The coupled model reduces the warming bias in July in East China through the surface heat fluxes changes. Compared to the original model of RIEMS, the strong precipitation of eastern China in July is weakened by coupling of the interactive vegetation. The surface heat flux in uncoupled model is remarkably overestimated in these regions, and the enhanced heating from land surface, particularly with latent heat flux in July, will produce the overestimated temperature and precipitation in East China. Through coupling AVIM with RIEMS, the simulated area-averaged latent heat flux of two key regions decreases (e.g. from 132.36 to 103.13 W/m2 over the region 1 between 105–125°E and 20–40°N) in July, which makes the overestimated temperature and precipitation declined, respectively.

A tool for mapping and spatio-temporal analysis of hydrological data

There is a need in water sciences for computational tools to integrate large spatially distributed datasets to provide insight into the spatial and temporal domains of the data while allowing visualization, analysis in the spatial and temporal dimensions, data metrics, and pattern recognition in the same application. Spatial and temporal variability of hydrological processes as well as the associated phenomena transport is better represented in high spatio-temporal resolution datasets. A conceptual data model and analysis tool, SPELLmap, was developed at the USDA Agricultural Research Service, Grazinglands Research Laboratory using the Delphi programming language to rapidly process, manipulate, analyze, and visualize large geo-located datasets. SPELLmap integrates the spatial and temporal domains of hydrological data to perform analyses in space and time while providing data metrics. SPELLmap has the capacity to represent three or four dimensional problems using a layer data structure. Three examples to illustrate SPELLmap functionalities were provided for the raster and raster-to-network domains. SPELLmap can be used for data interpolation, visualization, gridding, pattern recognition, and data metrics in integrated environmental modeling problems.

Integrated Multi-Network Modeling Environment for Spectrum Management

We describe a first principles based integrated modeling environment to study urban socio-communication networks which represent not just the physical cellular communication network, but also urban populations carrying digital devices interacting with the cellular network. The modeling environment is designed specifically to understand spectrum demand and dynamic cellular network traffic. One of its key features is its ability to support individual-based models at highly resolved spatial and temporal scales. We have instantiated the modeling environment by developing detailed models of population mobility, device ownership, calling patterns and call network. By composing these models using an appropriate in-built workflow, we obtain an integrated model that represents a dynamic socio-communication network for an entire urban region. In contrast with earlier papers that typically use proprietary data, these models use open source and commercial data sets. The dynamic model represents for a normative day, every individual in an entire region, with detailed demographics, a minute-by-minute schedule of each person's activities, the locations where these activities take place, and calling behavior of every individual. As an illustration of the applicability of the modeling environment, we have developed such a dynamic model for Portland, Oregon comprising of approximately 1.6 million individuals. We highlight the unique features of the models and the modeling environment by describing three realistic case studies.

Toward open science at the European scale: Geospatial Semantic Array Programming for integrated environmental modelling

Toward open science at the European scale: Geospatial Semantic Array Programming for integrated environmental modelling

Assessment of Carbon Dynamics of Forest Ecosystems in the Poyang Lake Basin Responding to Afforestation and Future Climate Change

Afforestation projects were applied in the Poyang Lake Basin of China at the beginning of 1980s. The large-scale plantation may dramatically influence the changes in carbon storage of forests in this basin. Therefore, climate-induced variations in the carbon balance of the Poyang Lake Basin's forests may play an important role in the carbon cycle of China. However, we have little understanding of their long-term behavior, especially the future trend of carbon sink/source patterns under climate change and rising atmospheric CO2. The annual carbon budget of the Poyang Lake Basin's forests during 1981–2050 was estimated by using the Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon-budget model (InTEC) coupled with projected climate change simulated by Regional Integrated Environmental Model System (RIEMS 2.0). During 1981–2000, the rapid increment of annual NPP in this basin was possible due to large plantation. Soil organic carbon storage (0–30cm) of forests generally decreased by 1.0% per year at the beginning of plantation. Moreover, forests in this basin converted from carbon source in 1980s to carbon sink in 1990s. By 2040–2050, total carbon stocks of forest ecosystems will increase by 0.78Pg C, compared to recent years (2001–2010). Under future climate and CO2 concentration in A1B scenario, NEP of forests in Poyang Lake Basin lean to keep relative stable (20-30Tg C y-1) because of old forests except for some years induced by extreme droughts. Our results also showed that prediction of NEP of forests in Poyang Lake Basin was controlled by water limitation; in contrast, temperature was the main factor on inter-annual variability of NPP.

Seasonal and intraseasonal variations of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation simulated by a regional air-sea coupled model

The performance of a regional air-sea coupled model, comprising the Regional Integrated Environment Model System (RIEMS) and the Princeton Ocean Model (POM), in simulating the seasonal and intraseasonal variations of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall was investigated. Through comparisons of the model results among the coupled model, the uncoupled RIEMS, and observations, the impact of air-sea coupling on simulating the EASM was also evaluated. Results showed that the regional air-sea coupled climate model performed better in simulating the spatial pattern of the precipitation climatology and produced more realistic variations of the EASM rainfall in terms of its amplitude and principal EOF modes. The coupled model also showed greater skill than the uncoupled RIEMS in reproducing the principal features of climatological intraseasonal oscillation (CISO) of EASM rainfall, including its dominant period, intensity, and northward propagation. Further analysis indicated that the improvements in the simulation of the EASM rainfall climatology and its seasonal variation in the coupled model were due to better simulation of the western North Pacific Subtropical High, while the improvements of CISO simulation were owing to the realistic phase relationship between the intraseasonal convection and the underlying SST resulting from the air-sea coupling.

Performance of Regional Integrated Environment Modeling System (RIEMS) in precipitation simulations over East Asia

Regional climate models (RCMs) can provide much more precise information on surface characteristics and mesoscale circulation than general circulation models. This potential for obtaining more detailed model results has motivated to a significant focus on RCMs development in East Asia. The Regional Integrated Environment Modeling System, version 2.0 (RIEMS2.0) has been developed from an earlier RCM, RIEMS1.0, at the Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia and Nanjing University. To test the ability of RIEMS2.0 to simulate long-term climate and climate changes in East Asia and to provide a basis for further development and applications, we compare simulated precipitation from 1979 to 2008 (simulation duration from 1 January 1978 to 31 December 2008) to observed meteorological data. The results show that RIEMS2.0 reproduces the spatial distribution of precipitation in East Asia but that the simulation overestimates precipitation. The simulated 30-year precipitation average is 26 % greater than the observed precipitation. Simulated upper and root soil water correlate well with remote sensing derived soil moisture. Annual and interannual variation in the average precipitation and their anomalies are both well reproduced by the model. A further analysis of three subregions representing different latitude ranges shows that there is good correlation and consistency between the simulated results and the observed data. Annual variation, interannual variation of average precipitation, and the anomalies in the three sub-regions are also well captured by the model. The model’s performance on atmospheric circulation and moisture transport simulations is discussed to explore the bias between the simulation and observations. In summary, RIEMS2.0 shows stability and does well in both simulating long-term climate and climate changes in East Asia and in describing subregional characteristics.

Integrated environmental modeling

Integrated environmental modeling (IEM) is inspired by modern environmental problems, decisions, and policies and enabled by transdisciplinary science and computer capabilities that allow the envir...

Managing uncertainty in integrated environmental modelling

Web-based distributed modelling architectures are gaining increasing recognition as potentially useful tools to build holistic environmental models, combining individual components in complex workf...

A GIS-based multi-source and multi-box modeling approach (GMSMB) for air pollution assessment—A North American case study

This article presents a GIS-based multi-source and multi-box modeling approach (GMSMB) to predict the spatial concentration distributions of airborne pollutant on local and regional scales. In this method, an extended multi-box model combined with a multi-source and multi-grid Gaussian model are developed within the GIS framework to examine the contributions from both point- and area-source emissions. By using GIS, a large amount of data including emission sources, air quality monitoring, meteorological data, and spatial location information required for air quality modeling are brought into an integrated modeling environment. It helps more details of spatial variation in source distribution and meteorological condition to be quantitatively analyzed. The developed modeling approach has been examined to predict the spatial concentration distribution of four air pollutants (CO, NO2, SO2 and PM2.5) for the State of California. The modeling results are compared with the monitoring data. Good agreement is acquired which demonstrated that the developed modeling approach could deliver an effective air pollution assessment on both regional and local scales to support air pollution control and management planning.

A methodological frame for assessing benzene induced leukemia risk mitigation due to policy measures

The study relies on the development of a methodology for assessing the determinants that comprise the overall leukemia risk due to benzene exposure and how these are affected by outdoor and indoor air quality regulation. An integrated modeling environment was constructed comprising traffic emissions, dispersion models, human exposure models and a coupled internal dose/biology-based dose–response risk assessment model, in order to assess the benzene imposed leukemia risk, as much as the impact of traffic fleet renewal and smoking banning to these levels. Regarding traffic fleet renewal, several “what if” scenarios were tested. The detailed full-chain methodology was applied in a South-Eastern European urban setting in Greece and a limited version of the methodology in Helsinki.Non-smoking population runs an average risk equal to 4.1·10−5 compared to 23.4·10−5 for smokers. The estimated lifetime risk for the examined occupational groups was higher than the one estimated for the general public by 10–20%. Active smoking constitutes a dominant parameter for benzene-attributable leukemia risk, much stronger than any related activity, occupational or not.From the assessment of mitigation policies it was found that the associated leukemia risk in the optimum traffic fleet scenario could be reduced by up to 85% for non-smokers and up to 8% for smokers. On the contrary, smoking banning provided smaller gains for (7% for non-smokers, 1% for smokers), while for Helsinki, smoking policies were found to be more efficient than traffic fleet renewal.The methodology proposed above provides a general framework for assessing aggregated exposure and the consequent leukemia risk from benzene (incorporating mechanistic data), capturing exposure and internal dosimetry dynamics, translating changes in exposure determinants to actual changes in population risk, providing a valuable tool for risk management evaluation and consequently to policy support.

Integrated environmental modeling: A vision and roadmap for the future

Integrated environmental modeling (IEM) is inspired by modern environmental problems, decisions, and policies and enabled by transdisciplinary science and computer capabilities that allow the environment to be considered in a holistic way. The problems are characterized by the extent of the environmental system involved, dynamic and interdependent nature of stressors and their impacts, diversity of stakeholders, and integration of social, economic, and environmental considerations. IEM provides a science-based structure to develop and organize relevant knowledge and information and apply it to explain, explore, and predict the behavior of environmental systems in response to human and natural sources of stress. During the past several years a number of workshops were held that brought IEM practitioners together to share experiences and discuss future needs and directions. In this paper we organize and present the results of these discussions. IEM is presented as a landscape containing four interdependent elements: applications, science, technology, and community. The elements are described from the perspective of their role in the landscape, current practices, and challenges that must be addressed. Workshop participants envision a global scale IEM community that leverages modern technologies to streamline the movement of science-based knowledge from its sources in research, through its organization into databases and models, to its integration and application for problem solving purposes. Achieving this vision will require that the global community of IEM stakeholders transcend social, and organizational boundaries and pursue greater levels of collaboration. Among the highest priorities for community action are the development of standards for publishing IEM data and models in forms suitable for automated discovery, access, and integration; education of the next generation of environmental stakeholders, with a focus on transdisciplinary research, development, and decision making; and providing a web-based platform for community interactions (e.g., continuous virtual workshops).

Enhancing integrated environmental modelling by designing resource-oriented interfaces

Integrated environmental modelling is gaining momentum for addressing grand scientific challenges such as monitoring the environment for change detection and forecasting environmental conditions along with the consequences for society. Such challenges can only be addressed by a multi-disciplinary approach, in which socio-economic, geospatial, and environmental information becomes inter-connected. However, existing solutions cannot be seamlessly integrated and current interaction paradigms prevent mainstream usage of the existing technology. In particular, it is still difficult to access and join harmonized data and processing algorithms that are provided by different environmental information infrastructures. In this paper we take a novel approach for integrated environmental modelling based on the notion of inter-linked resources on the Web. We present design practices for creating resource-oriented interfaces, driven by an interaction protocol built on the combination of valid linkages to enhance resource integration, accompanied by associated recommendations for implementation. The suggested resource-oriented approach provides a solution to the problems identified above, but still requires intense prototyping and experimentation. We discuss the central open issues and present a roadmap for future research.

An integrated modelling framework for regulated river systems

Management of regulated water systems has become increasingly complex due to rapid socio-economic growth and environmental changes in river basins over recent decades. This paper introduces the Source Integrated Modelling System (IMS), and describes the individual modelling components and how they are integrated within it. It also describes the methods employed for tracking and assessment of uncertainties, as well as presenting outcomes of two case study applications.Traditionally, the mathematical tools for water resources planning and management were generally designed for sectoral applications with, for example, groundwater being modelled separately from surface water. With the increasing complexity of water resources management in the 21st century those tools are becoming outmoded. Water management organisations are increasingly looking for new generation tools that allow integration across domains to assist their decision making processes for short-term operations and long-term planning; not only to meet current needs, but those of the future as well.In response to the need for an integrated tool in the water industry in Australia, the eWater Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) has developed a new generation software package called the Source IMS. The Source IMS is an integrated modelling environment containing algorithms and approaches that allow defensible predictions of water flow and constituents from catchment sources to river outlets at the sea. It is designed and developed to provide a transparent, robust and repeatable approach to underpin a wide range of water planning and management purposes. It can be used to develop water sharing plans and underpin daily river operations, as well as be used for assessments on water quantity and quality due to changes in: i) land-use and climate; ii) demands (irrigation, urban, ecological); iii) infrastructure, such as weirs and reservoirs; iv) management rules that might be associated with these; and v) the impacts of all of the above on various ecological indices. The Source IMS integrates the existing knowledge and modelling capabilities used by different state and federal water agencies across Australia and has additional functionality required for the river system models that will underpin the next round of water sharing plans in the country. It is built in a flexible modelling environment to allow stakeholders to incorporate new scientific knowledge and modelling methods as they evolve, and is designed as a generic tool suitable for use across different jurisdictions. Due to its structure, the platform can be extended/customised for use in other countries and basins, particularly where there are boundary issues.

Managing uncertainty in integrated environmental modelling: The UncertWeb framework

Web-based distributed modelling architectures are gaining increasing recognition as potentially useful tools to build holistic environmental models, combining individual components in complex workflows. However, existing web-based modelling frameworks currently offer no support for managing uncertainty. On the other hand, the rich array of modelling frameworks and simulation tools which support uncertainty propagation in complex and chained models typically lack the benefits of web based solutions such as ready publication, discoverability and easy access. In this article we describe the developments within the UncertWeb project which are designed to provide uncertainty support in the context of the proposed ‘Model Web’. We give an overview of uncertainty in modelling, review uncertainty management in existing modelling frameworks and consider the semantic and interoperability issues raised by integrated modelling. We describe the scope and architecture required to support uncertainty management as developed in UncertWeb. This includes tools which support elicitation, aggregation/disaggregation, visualisation and uncertainty/sensitivity analysis. We conclude by highlighting areas that require further research and development in UncertWeb, such as model calibration and inference within complex environmental models.

Integrated modeling within a Hydrologic Information System: An OpenMI based approach

This paper presents a prototype software system for integrated environmental modeling that provides interoperability between the Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science, Inc. (CUAHSI) Hydrologic Information System (HIS) and the Open Modeling Interface (OpenMI). The primary motivation for making these two systems interoperable is that the CUAHSI HIS has a primary focus on hydrologic data management and visualization while the OpenMI has a primary focus on integrated environmental modeling. By combining the two systems into a single software application, it is possible to create an integrated environmental modeling environment that scientists and engineers can use to understand and manage environmental systems. Using standards to achieve the steps required to find, gather, integrate, and analyze hydrologic data allows for a wide community of groups to participate because it establishes key rules and protocols that must be followed in order to add to the overarching system. The key contribution of this work, therefore, is an investigation of two standards in the community and exploring ways to provide interoperability between them. HydroModeler is a software implementation of our work and provides an OpenMI-compliant modeling environment embedded within the CUAHSI HIS HydroDesktop software system. We describe the design and implementation of this prototype software system, and then present an example application in which evapotranspiration is modeled using OpenMI components that consume HIS time series data for input. Finally, we conclude with a summary of our experience exploring the potential for interoperability between data and modeling systems, and suggest ways in which future development can better facilitate connections between the various subsystems needed within an integrated environmental modeling system.

Fuzzy inference systems: An integrated modeling environment for collaboration between expert knowledge and data using FisPro

The present paper aims to demonstrate the interest of fuzzy inference systems in system modeling when human interaction is important. It discusses the originality of FIS and their capability to integrate expertise and rule learning from data into a single framework, analyzing their place relatively to concurrent approaches. An open source software implementation is presented, with a focus on the useful features for modeling. Two real world case studies are presented to illustrate the approach and the software utility.

Performance of Regional Integrated Environment Modeling System (RIEMS) in the Simulation of Surface Air Temperature over East Asia

Regional climate models (RCMs) have the potential for more detailed surface characteristic and mesoscale modeling results than general circulation models (GCMs). These advantages have drawn signifi...

Prototype Development for an Integrated Modeling Environment Based on Plugins

Integrated Modeling Environment is mainly used for the rapid realization of model integration,enhancement of the authenticity of modeling and model predictive analysis capabilities.IME is the point of model disassembling and reassembling in the final analysis,focusing on how to modularize the existing model and reassemble the appropriate module together in the support of the modeling environment.This paper discusses the development method of IME prototype based on plugins and establishes a visual integrated modeling environment,in which we can implement the composition and connection of the hydrology and water resources model,and generates new model through graphical operation.