Integrated Modeling Environment Research Articles

Enhancing environmental data imputation: A physically-constrained machine learning framework

In water resources management, new computational capabilities have made it possible to develop integrated models to jointly analyze climatic conditions and water quantity/quality of the entire watershed system. Although the value of this integrated approach has been demonstrated so far, the limited availability of field data may hinder its applicability by causing high uncertainty in the model response. In this context, before collecting additional data, it is recommended first to recognize what improvement in model performance would occur if all available records could be well exploited. This work proposes a novel machine learning framework with physical constraints capable of successfully imputing a high percentage of missing data belonging to several environmental domains (meteorology, water quantity, water quality), yielding satisfactory results. In particular, the minimum NSE computed for meteorologic variables is 0.72. For hydrometric variables, NSE is always >0.97. More than 78 % of the physical-water-quality variables is characterized by NSE > 0.45, and >66 % of the chemical-water quality variables reaches NSE > 0.35. This work's results demonstrate the proposed framework's effectiveness as a data augmentation tool to improve the performance of integrated environmental modeling.

A new method for safety assessment of complex avionic systems

In this article, we propose a new approach for safety assessment of safety-critical systems. This approach, so-called Synthesis, is dedicated to the Preliminary System Safety Assessment included within the process of Safety Certification of avionic systems. The central idea consists in decomposing the assessment into two parts aiming at studying respectively the functional and the physical characteristics of the system under study. The whole approach is supported by a fully operational tool chain, dedicated to probabilistic safety assessment, which includes the AltaRica 3.0 integrated modeling environment, and a tool dedicated to the synthesis of functional minimal cutsets into physical minimal cutsets, making possible their quantitative assessment. We illustrate the benefits of the approach by means of a concrete avionic case study.

Applying FAIR4RS principles to develop an integrated modeling environment for the magnetic confinement fusion

Over the decades, the integrated modeling (IM) environment for magnetically confined fusion has evolved from a single, isolated, proprietary numerical computing software to an open, flexible platform emphasizing sharing, communication, and workflow. This development direction is consistent with the FAIR4RS principles put forward by the scientific community in recent years. In this article, we describe how the FAIR4RS principles were put into practice during the development of the IM management tool FyDev for the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST). FyDev integrates the process of building, deploying, and invoking research software, automating the entire process. FyDev can also assign a unique ID for each software, convert the software ID to a Python module, and encapsulate a package management tool to enhance the software building process, ensuring consistency throughout the entire phase of the research software find, access, use, and invocation in a uniform contextual environment.

BUILDING INTEGRATED MODELS IN ENVIRONMENTAL AND NATURAL RESOURCE ECONOMICS: THE CASE OF GORDON’S 1954 FISHERY MODEL

Environmental and natural resource economics lies inherently at the interface between economic and natural dynamics (e.g., geological constraints, climate change, biodiversity evolution). Building models in that field often means building integrated models, calling on knowledge and methods from economics and physics, climatology, biology, or ecology. Howard Scott Gordon’s 1954 article on fishery economics is considered to be seminal in the history of bioeconomic modeling, integrating biological and economic variables in a microeconomic model. Yet the precise role played by biology in Gordon’s initial work remains unclear. On the basis of archival material and thorough analysis of Gordon’s early research, this paper examines Gordon’s model building and his persistent oscillation between two objectives—the production of a heuristic economic model with standard assumptions, and the conception of a predictive policy tool relevant from a fishery-biology standpoint—and how he finally favored the first over the second. Moreover, contrary to received wisdom, we show that it was not Gordon but biologist Milner B. Schaefer who transformed Gordon’s model into an integrated model. These results shed new light not only on Gordon’s 1954 contribution but also on a whole tradition of integrated environmental and natural resource economics models, based on his work.

An integrated environmental nutrition model for dietary sustainability assessment

Environmental nutrition is gradually replacing the environmentally siloed sustainability assessment models to enhance sustainable dietary decisions. However, prominent concerns like the incomprehensive representation of nutritional quality and the difficulty in replicating existing models continue to limit the application of environmental nutrition. In addressing this, the current study presents an easily replicable and comprehensive nutrition mediated life cycle assessment approach termed the Environmental Impact Weighted Daily Value score (EIWDVs) model. This newly developed model comprehensively captures nutrient quantity in a daily value perspective as a nutritional indicator, and environmental impacts results as environmental indicators in the estimation of a nutrition mediated sustainability score. For validation purposes, the study applied this new model and the life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology, respectively, for comparing animal and plant-based foods within two major food categories: dairy products and analogs (e.g., cow milk versus soymilk) and meat and alternative meat products (e.g., beef sausage versus soy meatballs) in a defined future market scenario. Life cycle assessment and environmental nutrition results proved the plant-based alternatives to be sustainable dietary alternatives for achieving environmental nutrition co-benefits. For instance, production of soymilk and soy meatballs could offset up to 64–85% of global warming potential relative to cow milk and beef sausage. About 10% increase in offset values for global warming potential can be achieved when environmental nutrition is considered in dietary sustainability assessment. Nonetheless, the authors challenge the possibility of completely displacing animal-based diets, outlining existing gaps in global capacity and social acceptance, dynamic consumer behavior, and other socio-cultural factors as critical constraints to such a transition. Therefore, an integrated sustainable dietary system that considers plant and animal products with appreciable environmental nutrition performances is proposed as a feasible starting point for a gradual transition to a future of sustainable healthy dieting.

The role of nonfood bioethanol production in neutralizing China's transport carbon emissions: An integrated life cycle environmental-economic assessment

Lignocellulosic bioethanol may contribute significantly to neutralizing global greenhouse gases emissions as an alternative fuel, but controversies have increasingly arisen in relevant researches as to whether the ethanol production pathway is environmental- and cost-competitive or not and which hotspots may impede its commercial-scale deployment. Here we explore a cost-effective biorefinery pathway of sugarcane bagasse, molasses and Dioscorea composite hemls, from an integrated environmental and economic assessment model to evaluate the performance of bioethanol, as an alternative to gasoline, characterized by gCO2eq and MSP, in terms of its emission mitigation potential and cost, as well as its other environmental impacts with the CML method of assessment. Specifically, this study examines the production of 1 ton bioethanol with the considered environmental and economic indicators by three defensible allocation approaches affecting the total mitigation potential with anywhere between 20% and 82.5%, where the electricity consumed in the process of the bioethanol conversion is produced with more sustainable means, increasing the emission savings by up to 48.5%. The economic competitivity have also been examined to promote dialogues across environmental and economic fields, exemplified by the emission mitigation cost with the calculation of minimum selling price at 49.1/ton CO2eq, comparable with the EU-ETS carbon permit price. Signs of advantages abound in the current emission trading scheme, where the decrease in carbon tax levels can cut down the price of bioethanol production, especially with regard to the supply chain collaboration with electricity, and thus enhance the overall revenue of neutralizing transport emissions.

Digital Collaborative Environments: A Digital Engineering Perspective

AbstractThe systems engineering discipline focuses on managing and coordinating many domains, specialties, and lines of business. It enables the successful creation of new complex systems using rigorous principles and concepts, scientific thinking, technological tools, and management methods. Engineering collaboration occurs when individuals unite in an effort too large or complex for any of them to perform independently. A digital collaborative environment facilitates the sharing, revision, storage, and publication of ideas, documents, and products through digital means. Until recently, efforts to assemble teams to solve the problems of large, complex systems focused primarily on infrastructure: co‐locating teams, integrated modeling environments, efforts to connect tools, and model‐based systems engineering (MBSE). Today new technologies offer opportunities to bring systems engineering collaboration into a new era, one which is cloud‐based, interdisciplinary, secure, and efficient. This paper introduces a framework for understanding the modern digital collaborative environment as well as its current technical limitations.

Extreme precipitation-based vulnerability assessment of road-crossing drainage structures in forested watersheds using an integrated environmental modeling approach

The goal of this study is to develop geospatial-hydrology models incorporating design rainfall intensities and land morphologic features to identify erosion hazards and vulnerability risks to road culverts/stream crossings in three watersheds at USDA Forest Service long-term experimental forests: i) Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, NC, ii) Santee Experimental Forest, SC, and iii) Alum Creek Experimental Forest, AR. These models developed in an ArcGIS ModelBuilder platform were: i) Streambank Erosion Vulnerability Assessment (SBEVA) and ii) Modified Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (MODIFIED-RUSLE) for potential erosion and streambank vulnerability estimation. The SBEVA model, developed using a Delphi-based weighted-probability scale, and MODIFIED-RUSLE were integrated to identify locations of culverts/stream-crossings morphologically vulnerable to erosion and scouring, which were ground-truthed for the SC site only. As the MODIFIED-RUSLE model does not assess streambank erosion, its integration with the SBEVA helps to develop a better decision-support tool for relevant agencies for safeguarding these road culverts/stream crossings.

Designing and Validating an Integrated Environmental Education Curriculum Model for General Medicine

Background: Concerns about the environment have persisted over decades, and governments determinedly pursue the issue of environmental education. Designing an integrated curriculum is an effective approach to learning, participation, behavior, and critical thinking. Objectives: The presented study aimed to propose and validate an integrated model of environmental education curriculum for general medicine. Methods: This study was conducted using a mixed method (quantitative and qualitative). Data were collected using a questionnaire and via interviews. By using the Morgan’s table, the target population was determined to be 280 in Isfahan University of Medical Sciences (15 professors and 265 students). Results: The students had inadequate knowledge and low positive attitudes toward environmental education. Given the maximum consistency of the data obtained and the curriculum models provided by Silver and Alexander and Taylor and Kelvin, the integrated environmental education curriculum model was designed in 11 stages, including needs assessment, objectives, content, area determination, learning materials and resources, learning-teaching strategies, implementation and the role of professors, grouping, time, place, and evaluation. The proposed model was validated based on experts’ comments, and the content validity ratio was considered appropriate. Conclusions: Considering the integrated features of the proposed model, it applies to all stages of medical education and could foster effective interactions between students and environmental education during the seven-year study period, which confirms the efficacy of the model if implemented correctly. Considering the subjects of environmental education based on health-centered environment and the effects on physical, mental, and social health, the proposed model recognizes the contents of the current medical curriculum (i.e., disease prevention and treatment and the position of integration in organizing the content). In addition, it selects the contents of the model, which are reflected in its integrated approaches. The model composes of thematic knowledge, efficient knowledge, and functional knowledge in environmental education in medicine in the form of an integrated curriculum.

A multi-objective adaptive surrogate modelling-based optimization algorithm for constrained hybrid problems

Many multi-objective optimization problems in integrated environmental modelling and management involve not only continuous decision variables but also variables like integers and/or discrete variables. Furthermore, the optimization problems are often subject to various constraints. Solving this kind of constrained hybrid problems usually requires a huge number of model evaluations that can be computationally expensive. This study presents an algorithm known as multi-objective adaptive surrogate modelling-based optimization for constrained hybrid problems (MO-ASMOCH). It incorporates several evolutionary operators to handle different types of decision variables and uses a classification surrogate model to deal with model constraints. MO-ASMOCH was evaluated against the widely used NSGA-II method on three engineering design problems and three water distribution system design problems with up to 30 dimensions. The results showed that MO-ASMOCH is able to obtain nondominated solutions of similar quality as that of NSGA-II using much fewer model evaluations.

Towards a model-driven approach for multiexperience AI-based user interfaces

Software systems start to include other types of interfaces beyond the “traditional” Graphical-User Interfaces (GUIs). In particular, Conversational User Interfaces (CUIs) such as chat and voice are becoming more and more popular. These new types of interfaces embed smart natural language processing components to understand user requests and respond to them. To provide an integrated user experience all the user interfaces in the system should be aware of each other and be able to collaborate. This is what is known as a multiexperience User Interface. Despite their many benefits, multiexperience UIs are challenging to build. So far CUIs are created as standalone components using a platform-dependent set of libraries and technologies. This raises significant integration, evolution and maintenance issues. This paper explores the application of model-driven techniques to the development of software applications embedding a multiexperience User Interface. We will discuss how raising the abstraction level at which these interfaces are defined enables a faster development and a better deployment and integration of each interface with the rest of the software system and the other interfaces with whom it may need to collaborate. In particular, we propose a new Domain Specific Language (DSL) for specifying several types of CUIs and show how this DSL can be part of an integrated modeling environment able to describe the interactions between the modeled CUIs and the other models of the system (including the models of the GUI). We will use the standard Interaction Flow Modeling Language (IFML) as an example “host” language.

From UAF to SysML: Transitioning from System of Systems to Systems Architecture

AbstractThe fourth industrial evolution, Internet of Things, and large‐scale machine‐to‐machine interactions are driving digital transformation in the industry. Model‐based Systems engineering (MBSE), as a new paradigm of capturing and analyzing knowledge about the system, is one of the core factors to drive this transformation. MBSE practices are more and more widely applied to system‐of‐systems (including enterprise and mission) engineering, which becomes a crucial part of the successful digital transformation. The core challenge today is how digital continuity can be maintained by connecting system models to system‐of‐systems models, especially when multiple parties are involved in their creation and exploration. This paper studies Systems Modeling Language (SysML) as the standard language to model systems, and Unified Architecture Framework (UAF) as the framework and Unified Architecture Framework Profile (UAFP) as the language to model system of systems and proposes an approach for transitioning from one to another in an integrated modeling environment.

Risk management in the healthcare safety management system

The paper discusses the main components of the modern system of risk management in medicine. Using the ISO 31000 standard of risk management and the ARIS integrated modeling environment, the authors have built a model of the risk management process in a medical organization, including the accounting subsystem, the risk analysis subsystem, and the risk processing subsystem. The concept of risk management proposed in the article is formulated on the basis of a system safety model, which assumes that adverse events related to the provision of medical care are based on systemic causes that under certain conditions turn into a hazard, and the latter is used to receive active threats and incidents. The risk management system is an executive block of the safety management system in a medical organization, which includes (in addition to risk management) an ideological block (a new safety culture) and an educational block (an organizational learning subsystem).

ЦИФРОВИЗАЦИЯ ОРГАНИЗАЦИОННОЙ СТРУКТУРЫ УПРАВЛЕНИЯ ПРОИЗВОДСТВЕННЫМ ПРЕДПРИЯТИЕМ

The article discusses the problem of finding a rational share of artificial intelligence in the organizational system of a manufacturing enterprise. An original formal-logical model of a mixed integrated information environment of a digital enterprise is proposed, which differs from analogues in the possibility of an ontological description of the processes of interaction between personnel and artificial intelligence systems. On the basis of the proposed model, a technique has been developed for the optimal replacement of staffing for cyber-physical systems with artificial intelligence components, which allows balancing the load of human resources and intelligent systems. The proposed developments can be applied in the organization of the production process of enterprises for planning and management, as well as the introduction of new technologies and artificial intelligence. Research results are recommended under the framework of implementation of the concept of Industry 4.0 for modern enterprises of industrial engineering.

Assessment of integrating Environmental Factors into Healthcare Models for Enhancing Timely Epidemics Analysis: A Case study of Cholera in Dar es Salaam –Tanzania

The objective of this study is to assess the perspectives of users on the feasibility of using an integrated environmental factors-based healthcare model to enhance timely cholera epidemics analysis in Tanzania. The study used a mixed-design approach of quantitative and qualitative methods with focus group discussion and interviewer-administered questionnaires. Participants or users included; medical and epidemiological experts, environmental experts, Information and Communication Technology (ICT) experts, and cholera patients from Ilala, Ubungo, Kigamboni, Temeke, and Kinondoni districts in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. In the process, a total of 500 interviews were conducted, consisting of 200 medical experts, 50 environmental experts, 50 ICT experts, and 200 cholera patients, with an average age of 28 years old, and at 3:2 female to male ratio. Overall, our findings showed that Health and Environmental Integrated Modelled Systems (HEIMs) interventions are acceptable, feasible, and capable in assisting timely analysis towards effective prediction and eradication of epidemics such as; cholera outbreaks at 79% acceptability, 90% aid-value and 69% awareness levels. Despite, the high acceptability level, participants also highlighted barriers of the model, such as; sustainability and operation costs, which need to be addressed. These findings confirm that the program of HEIMS is of high potential towards enhancing timely cholera analysis, clear public health significance, and relevant to policy-makers, government, society, and related stakeholders at large. Therefore, the study, recommends that there is a need for all these organs to work together towards clearing all obstacles in order to achieve the intended goal of the HEIMs program.

URUNME: A generic software for integrated environmental modeling

A new software application, called URUNME, was developed in C#.NET for integrated environmental modeling. URUNME provides functionality for model coupling, data storage, analysis, visualization, scenario management, and decision support systems. A graphical user interface (GUI) based on drag-and-drop flowchart type diagrams allow modelers to set-up a model application once and then focus on running and analyzing results, without needing to further address housekeeping details. Data are stored in the embedded SQLite database. Interactive dashboards can be created using multiple screens and visual elements. The built-in scenario management feature provides the capability of running multiple scenarios of a model using different input parameters, initial, and boundary conditions. This paper presents URUNME's architecture and describes how it can be utilized for creating automated integrated modeling applications by domain experts. A demonstration of capabilities is shown in a series of case studies of increasing complexity in the water and wastewater applications.

A socio-environmental model for exploring sustainable water management futures: Participatory and collaborative modelling in the Lower Campaspe catchment

Study regionLower Campaspe, North Central Victoria, Australia Study focusThis paper presents a component-based integrated environmental model developed through participatory processes to explore sustainable water management options. Possible futures with improved farm profitability and ecological outcomes relative to modelled baselines were identified through exploratory modelling. The integrated model and the results produced are intended to raise awareness and facilitate discussion with and amongst stakeholders. New hydrological insightsThe modelling illustrates that improved farm level knowledge and management with regard to crop water requirements, soil water capacity, and irrigations are the most significant factors towards achieving outcomes that are robust to a range of climate and water policy futures. Assuming farmer management with regard to these factors are at their most optimal, increasing irrigation efficiency alone did not lead to improved farm profitability and ecological outcomes under drier climate conditions. Likelihood of achieving robust outcomes were further improved through the conjunctive use of surface and groundwater, with increased consideration of groundwater use a key factor. Further discussion on the viability and impact of increased groundwater use and conjunctive use policies should be further considered.

Reflective communication to improve problem-solving pathways: Key issues illustrated for an integrated environmental modelling case study

The pathway of a modelling project is commonly described as an adaptively adjusted chain of steps at which various decisions are made. Communication and documentation about these decisions are crucial to enabling reflection and adapting the pathway to changing circumstances, such that well-informed planning is required. Project decision making, however, often remains a black box; it is rare to find reporting of dead ends, alternative decisions, and changes in decisions during the project. This paper uses an integrated environmental management case study in Iran to demonstrate the importance of reflective documentation and communication within the pathway. We show how a pathway diagram, incorporating some 14 symbols depicting steps, decision forks, options (selected and alternatives), actions, communication and documentation, can illustrate the role of communication within the project and identify lessons learnt. We also encourage further work on application of agile project management and social science techniques to improve modelling practices.

A System and Method for improving the Model Based Systems Engineering Environment capability

AbstractAs the evolution of new technologies such as IOT and Cloud Computational Analysis continue, the Systems have become more and more complex and it is grown much in size. Unfortunately the present day SE Environments, Modeling languages and the related tool sets are not sufficient enough to represent the multiple streams problem at hand in one integrated modeling environment which makes all of the Stakeholders and Engineers & Non‐engineers understand the problem scenarios. This lack of integrated modelling environment and a methodology for an additional representation of multiple problem domains limits off the analysis capabilities, timely communication of the technical and project risks to various stakeholders for decision making. It happens due to the inherent capability & limitations of each modeling languages followed so far by the Model Based System Engineering (MBSE) community & to bridge across them. This research paper focuses on improving the SE modeling environment capability from at least three distinct directions. First, it proposes a way to strengthen the SysML semantics with concrete guidelines which helps to reduce the incompleteness & ambiguous nature of the SysML elements especially in the Non Functional Requirements modeling. Then it explores the possibility of integrating the ontology aspects offered in evolving Life‐cycle Modeling Language (LML) specification to an extended SysML profile to complement its constructs to facilitate communication with non‐system engineers as well. Finally, this paper draws parallel between the LML architectural modeling concepts with the Architecture Analysis & Design Language (AADL) constructs and realizes them in an extended SysML profile. This will facilitate the seamless flow of models at various abstraction levels & translation of architectural model information from LML to AADL analytical environment. A case study implemented using an extended SysML profile & a methodology will be presented to measure its effectiveness.

Longer-term aircraft fleet modelling: narrative review of tools and measures for mitigating carbon emissions from aircraft fleet

Aviation industry stakeholders such as International Air Transport Association (IATA) agreed on ambitious goals and a basket of measures for mitigating aircraft emissions. Determining the emissions mitigation potentials (EMPs) of these measures requires the use of a set of assumptions or longer-term forecasts in an integrated modelling environment. However, the results of longer-term forecasts are only as reliable as the reliability and consistencies of their assumptions and methods with industry trends, as well as their compatibility with other dominating external developments. In this article, nine approaches to modelling aircraft fleet development were reviewed. Each of the first eight approaches used a unique fleet development model, while the last approach combines two additional models with one of the eight models. Therefore, ten global and regional longer-term aircraft fleet development models were reviewed and compared. The review focus was on their individual methods used for aircraft addition to and disposal from the fleet. Where available, the EMPs of individual measures were compared in order to create an overview of the EMPs of the measures. Furthermore, methods used for fleet development modelling in the studies were compared with the airline industry trends and practices for fleet planning in order to identify opportunities for research. This study is useful to policy-makers in knowing the expected emissions mitigation benefit of proposed environmental policies related to the IATA basket of measures. Aviation stakeholders like aircraft manufacturers and airlines would also have an overview of expected emissions savings of individual and combined measures. Lastly, researchers can also understand state-of-the-art modelling methods and scenario assumptions for the purpose of duplication studies, as well as identify unexplored areas for research.