Integrated Drought Management Research Articles

HESS Opinions: Drought impacts as failed prospects

Abstract. Human actions induce and modify droughts. However, scientific gaps remain with respect to how hydrological processes, anthropogenic dynamics, and individuals' perceptions of impacts are intrinsically entangled in drought occurrence and evolution. This adds complexity to drought assessment studies that cannot be addressed by the natural and environmental sciences alone. Furthermore, it poses a challenge with respect to developing ways to evaluate human behaviour and its pattern of co-evolution with the hydrological cycle – mainly related to water use and landscape modifications. During fieldwork in Brazil, we observed how drought impacts were experienced by people who were exposed to a multi-year drought. Evaluating our data, it appeared that prospect theory, a behavioural economic theory that is usually applied to explain decision-making processes under uncertainty, has explanatory power regarding what we observed in the field. Therefore, we propose an interdisciplinary approach to improve the understanding of drought impact emergence using this theory. When employing prospect theory in this context, drought impacts are considered failed welfare expectations (“prospects”) due to water shortage. A shifting baseline after prolonged exposure to drought can therefore mitigate experienced drought impacts. We demonstrate that this theory can also contribute to explaining socio-hydrological phenomena, such as reservoir effects. This new approach can help bridge natural science and social science perspectives, resulting in integrated drought management that considers the local context.

Drought Diagnosis: What the Medical Sciences Can Teach Us

AbstractDrought management is currently informed by a variety of approaches, mostly responding to drought crisis when it happens. Toward more effective and integrated drought management, we introduce a conceptual drought diagnosis framework inspired by diagnostic concepts from the field of medicine. This framework comprises five steps: 1. Initial diagnostic assessment; 2. Diagnostic testing; 3. Consultation; 4. Communication of the diagnosis; and 5. Treatment and prognosis. To illustrate the need for the proposed approach, four case studies of recently drought‐affected regions were selected: the city of Cape Town, the state of California, the Northeast region of Brazil, and the Horn of Africa. Contrasting elements for these cases include the geographic extent and political boundaries, climate, socio‐economics, and the relevance of different water resources (e.g., rainfall, reservoirs, and aquifers). For each case, we identified documented practices and policies and reflected on them in terms of drought misdiagnosis or incomplete diagnosis that have aggravated socio‐economic and environmental drought impacts. A common example is the preference for technical solutions (e.g., installing infrastructure to augment water supply), rather than measures that reduce vulnerability. Analysis of these four drought case studies confirmed the anticipated need for a comprehensive approach to drought diagnosis for more successful treatment and prevention of drought. Using an analogy with medical science can be helpful toward comprehensively diagnosing droughts for a variety of contexts and assessing the effectiveness of proposed interventions. This framework can help drought managers to be more proactive in enabling drought‐affected regions to become more drought resilient in the future.

Improving Transboundary Drought and Scarcity Management in the Iberian Peninsula through the Definition of Common Indicators: The Case of the Minho-Lima River Basin District

Drought is one of the most damaging natural hazards in the Iberian Peninsula, causing varied socioeconomic and environmental impacts. To prevent these impacts, there must be close cooperation between Portugal and Spain, as the two countries share five river basins. However, regarding drought planning and management the two countries are clearly in different stages. Portugal approved a national drought plan in 2017, while Spain has already had drought plans in place for all River Basin Districts since 2007 and approved an updated version of these plans in 2018. The Spanish drought plans currently in place foresee two sets of indicators: prolonged drought and scarcity indicators. This paper presents the definition of similar indicators for the Portuguese part of the shared Minho and Lima river basins, according to European guidelines and in common with Spain, with the aim of developing a joint international drought management plan for these basins. For the period from October 1980 to September 2017, the comparison of the indicators obtained for the Portuguese parts of the basins with the corresponding Spanish ones shows a similarity in the occurrence of drought and scarcity in both parts of the basins, although with a higher prevalence of scarcity situations in the Lima Spanish part. This work was developed in close collaboration with the River Basin District competent authorities of both countries, aiming to be a prototype for the definition of new and comparable drought and operational scarcity indicators. Therefore, this work is a starting point for the creation of common tools for integrated drought management of transboundary basins in the IP.

Assessing the effect of spatial-temporal droughts on dominant crop yield changes in Central Malawi.

Central Malawi has intensely been subjected to different climate-related shocks such as floods, dry spells, and droughts, resulting in decreases in crop yields. Due to their recurrence arising from the effects of climate change, drought characterization, monitoring, and prediction are crucial in guiding agriculture-water users and planners to prepare drought risk management plans and early warning systems. This research analyzed droughts, using multiple drought indices and their impacts on dominant crops over Central Malawi. Forty years of hydro-meteorological data (1977-2017) from nine rain-gauging stations and crop yield data from 1983 to 2017 from four districts were analyzed. The study discovered that drought events in the Agricultural Development Division (ADD) are highly a function of rainfall deficit and high temperatures. The results highlighted that the rainfall patterns in the area are not dependable, calling for the utilization of climate-smart irrigation systems such as drip irrigation and rainwater harvesting technologies. Furthermore, we achieved that crops such as cassava and groundnuts must be promoted to withstand the long water stress duration. These crops also have a multiplier effect; hence, they can enhance food security in the region. This study recommends that using more robust variables in drought analysis studies is necessary for effective drought monitoring and early warning systems. In corroboration with disaster management NGOs, it is recommended that the government should be proactive in developing integrated drought management policies and planning strategies for drought adaptation and mitigation.

Integrated drought management: moving from managing disasters to managing risk in the Mediterranean region

Integrated drought management: moving from managing disasters to managing risk in the Mediterranean region

Developing drought resilience in irrigated agriculture in the face of increasing water scarcity

In many countries, drought is the natural hazard that causes the greatest agronomic impacts. After recurrent droughts, farmers typically learn from experience and implement changes in management to reduce their future drought risks and impacts. This paper aims to understand how irrigated agriculture in a humid climate has been affected by past droughts and how different actors have adapted their activities and strategies over time to increase their resilience. After examining recent drought episodes from an agroclimatic perspective, information from an online survey was combined with evidence from semi-structured interviews with farmers to assess: drought risk perceptions, impacts of past drought events, management strategies at different scales (regional to farm level) and responses to future risks. Interviews with the water regulatory agency were also conducted to explore their attitudes and decision-making processes during drought events. The results highlight how agricultural drought management strategies evolve over time, including how specific aspects have helped to reduce future drought risks. The importance of adopting a vertically integrated drought management approach in the farming sector coupled with a better understanding of past drought impacts and management options is shown to be crucial for improving decision-making during future drought events.

Drought management policies – from global collaboration to national action

The article provides an overview of the development of national drought management policies (NDMP). It explores collaborative efforts that were started at the High-level Meeting on National Drought Policy – whose declaration provides the backdrop to this article – and are implemented through the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)/Global Water Partnership (GWP) Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) and related initiatives. Early outputs, e.g., the National Drought Management Policy Guidelines – A template for action and the Handbook on Drought Indices and Indicators, provide an indication of how expert-reviewed guidance is brought together and applied by drought practitioners for developing NDMP and applying drought indices/indicators. Regional examples from Central and Eastern Europe and the Horn of Africa, including a brief country example from Kenya, highlight how these guidelines and collaborative efforts and outputs are applied. The role of IDMP is to provide a framework and commensurate technical support to countries but the actual development and implementation of national drought plans and policies still needs to be done by governmental ministries and national stakeholders. The article emphasizes how information from different sources is used to support countries to shift from only reacting to droughts when they occur to adopt proactive national drought policies that focus on improved collaboration and the mitigation of drought impacts.

Integrated Drought Management Programme in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE)

Abstract Integrated Drought Management Programme in Central and Eastern Europe (IDMP CEE). The Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is one of the European regions seriously vulnerable to drought events and there is an urgent need in the region to develop better drought management systems. In February 2013 the Global Water Partnership for Central and Eastern Europe region launched the Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP CEE) involving more than 40 organizations from 10 CEE countries. The Programme is structured to provide both policy advice and practical solutions in drought management. The specific objectives of the IDMP CEE are to develop understanding, knowledge and planning for integrated drought management, map and assess the impact of droughts. Moreover, several case studies (demonstration projects) in pilot basins involving local communities are initiated. The national governments are supported to incorporate drought management in their national programs, develop monitoring framework and raise drought awareness through efficient dissemination mechanisms. All countries of the CEE region need to improve both their short-term and long-term responses across sectors to meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts. In spite of the fact that several basins in the region are of transboundary character, regional integration of drought monitoring and early warning is not at the level desired. Whilst the lack of water is the primary cause of drought, there are still a large number of factors which exacerbate and intensify its effects. If these factors - many of which have little to do with water per se - are adequately managed, the consequences of the lack of water can be greatly reduced. For example, there are several specific problems and challenges related to the current process of economic transition in the region, including macroeconomic and financial problems

From national to regional plans – the Integrated Drought Management Programme of the Global Water Partnership for Central and Eastern Europe

In the past few decades it has become evident that the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are affected by droughts which are becoming more and more lasting and severe. The region׳s vulnerability to this natural hazard alerted the public, governments, and operational agencies to the many socio-economic problems accompanying water shortage and to the need for drought mitigation measures. In addition, climate change amplifies the frequency and severity of droughts in the region. In this context, the CEE region of the Global Water Partnership (GWP) recently launched the regional Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) as part of the global joint World Meteorological Organization (WMO)/GWP IDMP. The purpose of this paper is to present the work plan of the GWP CEE IDM Programme which is being implemented in the years 2013–2015. The planning process for this Programme carried out in 2012 included national and regional reviews of existing drought risks, policies and strategies. The programme inception phase was summarized in October 2012 by a regional workshop organized jointly by GWP and WMO, with the participation of representatives of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) Secretariat, the Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe (DMCSEE), the EU Joint Research Centre, the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the European Drought Centre. The Programme was launched in February 2013 and involves more than 40 organizations from 9 CEE countries. The basic four elements of the Programme include policy advice, demonstration projects, capacity building knowledge management and regional cooperation (from national to regional plans). The major output, building upon national initiatives, shall be a coordinated regional framework for drought monitoring, early warning, prediction and management, accompanied by a set of guidelines and tools for the development of regional, national and local drought policies and plans. The proposed integrated approach will place emphasis on working with a range of stakeholders from various sectors, such as government officials, municipal and local officers, farmers, water supply operators, and others. Work will fully observe the Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) principles which are the cornerstone of all GWP activities.

Toward Global Drought Early Warning Capability: Expanding International Cooperation for the Development of a Framework for Monitoring and Forecasting

Drought is a global problem that has far-reaching impacts, especially on vulnerable populations in developing regions. This paper highlights the need for a Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS), the elements that constitute its underlying framework (GDEWF), and the recent progress made toward its development. Many countries lack drought monitoring systems, as well as the capacity to respond via appropriate political, institutional, and technological frameworks, and these have inhibited the development of integrated drought management plans or early warning systems. The GDEWS will provide a source of drought tools and products via the GDEWF for countries and regions to develop tailored drought early warning systems for their own users. A key goal of a GDEWS is to maximize the lead time for early warning, allowing drought managers and disaster coordinators more time to put mitigation measures in place to reduce the vulnerability to drought. To address this, the GDEWF will take both a top-down approach to provide global realtime drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting, and a bottom-up approach that builds upon existing national and regional systems to provide continental-to-global coverage. A number of challenges must be overcome, however, before a GDEWS can become a reality, including the lack of in situ measurement networks and modest seasonal forecast skill in many regions, and the lack of infrastructure to translate data into useable information. A set of international partners, through a series of recent workshops and evolving collaborations, has made progress toward meeting these challenges and developing a global system.

Development of the standardised precipitation index for Greece

The use of standardised precipitation index (SPI) may lead to an understanding of a droughts magnitude and duration and thus contributing to integrated drought management options. Greece, a semi-arid country, has very often faced the hazardous impacts of droughts. The worst drought on record lasted from 1989 to 1993, and affected all the country, particularly the urban water supply of Athens metropolitan area. Rainfall time series from 41 rain stations were used to calculate SPI, for time scales of 3, 6, 12 and 24 months. Forty eight (48) interpolation surfaces were produced and assessed using historical data and statistical parameters for the SPI spatial visualisation through GIS kriging of the 1989–1993 drought. The results suggest the use of SPI as a drought monitoring tool, namely in areas with a distinct dry season, supporting drought forecasting and assisting integrated strategies for drought management.

Development of Integrated Drought Evaluation and Monitoring System: Case Study of Aharchay River Basin

AbstractIn this paper, an integrated drought management scheme (IDMS) is developed for the Aharchay River Basin, located in northwestern Iran. This region is located in a semiarid region and has experienced considerable drought damage in recent years. Therefore, application of the proposed IDMS could greatly help to mitigate drought damage. The developed IDMS includes different tools and models needed for drought management. The utilized tools are classified into four groups, as follows: (1) data collection and validation, (2) rainfall-runoff prediction, (3) reservoir operation, and (4) drought analysis and monitoring. Future rainfall and runoff are projected using two computer models. Optimal reservoir operation is determined using a Bayesian stochastic genetic algorithm and Bayesian stochastic dynamic programming. These models are capable of incorporating new data of reservoir inflow and expert opinion in decision-making. For reservoir operation in drought conditions, hedging rules are also developed ba...

Integrated drought management and forestry

Integrated drought management and forestry

Decision Support Systems for Drought Management Strategies in Metropolitan Athens

Drought constitutes a rather severe hazard to all human activities, and especially to water supply. After numerous efforts to improve planning and management actions against droughts, many deficiencies still remain. The major new challenge is the development of integrated, comprehensive, and effective drought management schemes, with the aid of decision support systems (DDS), particularly under extreme and adverse condition. These conditions can be found in the physical, structural, socio-economic and institutional environment. The metropolitan Athens area in Greece, a semiarid area where the water supply is accomplished by a series of reservoirs and conveyance structures approximately 190 km to the west of the region, reflects such a case. In this regard, the present paper is trying to identify appropriate solutions for the above problematic areas by incorporating elements of integrated drought management strategies. The resulting options may be used as a means to avoid undesirable effects or major future crises in meeting the continuous challenge of drought and in fortifying a risk management commitment.