Development of Integrated Drought Evaluation and Monitoring System: Case Study of Aharchay River Basin

Abstract

AbstractIn this paper, an integrated drought management scheme (IDMS) is developed for the Aharchay River Basin, located in northwestern Iran. This region is located in a semiarid region and has experienced considerable drought damage in recent years. Therefore, application of the proposed IDMS could greatly help to mitigate drought damage. The developed IDMS includes different tools and models needed for drought management. The utilized tools are classified into four groups, as follows: (1) data collection and validation, (2) rainfall-runoff prediction, (3) reservoir operation, and (4) drought analysis and monitoring. Future rainfall and runoff are projected using two computer models. Optimal reservoir operation is determined using a Bayesian stochastic genetic algorithm and Bayesian stochastic dynamic programming. These models are capable of incorporating new data of reservoir inflow and expert opinion in decision-making. For reservoir operation in drought conditions, hedging rules are also developed ba...