Integrated Assessment Framework Research Articles

Co‐development of an integrated assessment framework to evaluate the effectiveness and impact of selected nature‐based water treatment technologies in Sri Lanka, The Philippines, and Vietnam

AbstractWater quality is a critical challenge in Asia in the context of growing industrialization, urbanization, and climate change. Nature‐based solutions (NbS) could play an important role in reducing urban water pollution, while generating multiple co‐benefits that could make cities more liveable and resilient. In this regard, a number of pilot and demonstration projects have been set up to explore their potential across cities in Asia. Their effectiveness and impacts, however, have not been adequately documented, thus how they can be sustained, replicated and up‐scaled remain poorly understood. This study aims to contribute to addressing this challenge by co‐developing an integrated assessment framework and employing it to understand how existing evaluations of NbS in the region can be improved. It focuses specifically on a set of nature‐based solutions that have been employed for water treatment across six cities in Southeast Asia (two in each Sri Lanka, the Philippines, and Vietnam), namely, floating wetlands, constructed wetlands and maturation ponds. The study also suggests specific methodologies for capturing a set of core indicators considered relevant for assessing the effectiveness and capturing the multi‐faceted impacts of the examined NbS.

Knowledge management maturity assessment frameworks: A proposed holistic approach

AbstractThe paper aims to provide a systematic overview of the maturity models used in knowledge management (KM) with the purpose of identifying different perspectives, contributions, shortcomings, and implementation gaps. This study can be characterized as a theoretical research based on a systematic literature review. As a result of this analysis, KM key points and knowledge management maturity models (KMMMs) critical success factors (CSFs) are pointed out and recorded. The concept of standardization and its relation to KM, presenting known KM Standards and their core principles is explored. Even though there is a large number of publications on KM, a literature gap is identified in publications regarding the field of KM Standards and corresponding case studies. Based on the most widely spread critical success factors used in the knowledge management maturity assessment presented in the literature survey, the objective of this paper is to propose a holistic and integrated knowledge management maturity assessment framework encompassing the core guidelines of ISO 30401 in order to be used by researchers and practitioners for future reference in the form of a generic maturity assessment web matrix.

An integrated socio-cyber-physical system framework to assess responsible digitalisation in agriculture: A first application with Living Labs in Europe

CONTEXTIt is still an open question how to assess the contribution of digitalisation in agriculture to the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals, and how digitalisation then can be done in a responsible way. A socio-cyber-physical system (SCPS) concept can help this analysis, but little experience exists with its operationalisation and application, and its integration with the Responsible Research and Innovation approach. OBJECTIVETo address this gap, this paper has a twofold purpose: a) operationalise the SCPS concept within an integrated assessment framework adaptable to multiple levels of analysis, contexts, and purposes (e.g. ex-ante, ongoing, ex post evaluation) to shed light on impacts of digitalisation in relation to SCPS entities, relationships, and activities; b) apply the designed framework in 21 multi-stakeholder platforms (Living Labs), which were established to explore needs and expectations in specific subjects relevant for European agriculture, forestry and rural areas. METHODSImpacts were assessed through interviews (158 respondents), focus groups (378 participants), online surveys (273 respondents), and other secondary data. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONSThe findings indicate that the SCPS framework enables elucidating relationships between digital and broader sustainable development goals and needs, and can sharpen earlier assessments, going beyond a pessimistic or optimistic dichotomy associated to digitalisation by specifying effects and trade-offs in terms of enabling, disenabling, boosting and depleting impacts of digital agriculture. However, the framework being comprehensive and open to emerging socio-cyber-physical interactions, makes that Livings Labs doing participatory impact assessments struggled with the complexity and multiple dimensions of the topic. SIGNIFICANCEThe paper provides both conceptual and operational knowledge to set up impact evaluations of responsible digitalisation in agriculture and outline concepts that can help anticipating the consequences and trade-offs.

Integrated assessment of the supply–demand relationship of ecosystem services in the Loess Plateau during 1992–2015

ABSTRACT Landscape alterations and ecosystem services (ES) are crucial elements that affect the socio-ecological development of ecologically fragile regions. To provide scientific support for the land-use planning and regional ecological restoration to achieve sustainable development goals (SDGs) in the Loess Plateau from 1992 to 2015, this study proposes an integrated assessment framework for assessing the supply – demand match and equilibrium of ES combining potential relationships between landscape alterations, ES, and sustainable development at the county and regional scales. Results show that more than 85% of local counties have a supply – demand mismatch in terms of ecosystem services. Supply – demand distributions for provisioning and supporting services were relatively balanced compared to cultural services, which were imbalanced. Although the overall supply – demand relationship is relatively balanced because of the significant influence of ecological restoration, it shows an increasing trend toward imbalance as human – land conflict is prominent in some regions. SDGs emphasize on specific ES information such as ecosystem conservation, sustainable agriculture, and urban construction. Furtherly, positive impacts from landscape dynamics can improve the supply capacity of the ES and contribute to regional sustainability.

Predicting Heavy Metal Concentrations in Shallow Aquifer Systems Based on Low-Cost Physiochemical Parameters Using Machine Learning Techniques.

Monitoring ex-situ water parameters, namely heavy metals, needs time and laboratory work for water sampling and analytical processes, which can retard the response to ongoing pollution events. Previous studies have successfully applied fast modeling techniques such as artificial intelligence algorithms to predict heavy metals. However, neither low-cost feature predictability nor explainability assessments have been considered in the modeling process. This study proposes a reliable and explainable framework to find an effective model and feature set to predict heavy metals in groundwater. The integrated assessment framework has four steps: model selection uncertainty, feature selection uncertainty, predictive uncertainty, and model interpretability. The results show that Random Forest is the most suitable model, and quick-measure parameters can be used as predictors for arsenic (As), iron (Fe), and manganese (Mn). Although the model performance is auspicious, it likely produces significant uncertainties. The findings also demonstrate that arsenic is related to nutrients and spatial distribution, while Fe and Mn are affected by spatial distribution and salinity. Some limitations and suggestions are also discussed to improve the prediction accuracy and interpretability.

Multifunctional landscapes for dedicated bioenergy crops lead to low-carbon market-competitive biofuels

Switchgrass is a promising feedstock for cellulosic biorefineries, due to its ability to maintain comparatively high biomass yields across a wide range of soil and climatic conditions. However, there is an incomplete understanding of the economic and environmental tradeoffs associated with cultivating switchgrass on low-productivity land for conversion to biofuels. This study surveys prior literature and demonstrates a new integrated assessment framework, including agroecosystem, ecosystem services valuation, technoeconomic, and life-cycle assessment models, to quantify and contextualize the economic and environmental impacts of switchgrass cultivation on marginal land with downstream conversion to biofuels. Monetizing and incorporating the value of ecosystem services, such as improved water quality benefits from nitrate and sediment reductions, climate change mitigation benefits from CO2 emission reduction, and recreational and pollination benefits from increased biodiversity, the modeled multifunctional landscape reduces the ethanol production cost by 33.3–58.9 cents/l-gasoline-equivalent ($1.3–2.2/gge). Planting switchgrass in low productivity land improves soil health, resulting in the carbon footprint reduction credit of 12.8–20.2 gCO2e/MJ. For an improved switchgrass-to-ethanol conversion pathway with the maximum benefits from ecosystem services, the minimum ethanol selling price and carbon footprint of ethanol, respectively, could reach to 31 cents/l-gasoline-equivalent (47% reduction relative to average gasoline price) and 3 gCO2e/MJ (97% reduction relative to gasoline). This low carbon renewable ethanol leads to substantial State and/or Federal policy incentives (∼$1/l-gasoline-equivalent) providing a large benefit to biorefinery operators, farmers, and the public as a whole.

An integrative Whole Building Life Cycle Assessment (WBLCA) framework: A survey of software developers’ perspective

Whole Building Life Cycle Assessment (WBLCA) is an effective way of evaluating the environmental impact of a building's systems and materials. Designers usually rely on software tools to evaluate a building's environmental performance, and the barriers to the smooth use of these tools during design are extensive. Given the critical role software tools are playing in design practice, this research sought the opinions of WBLCA software tool developers to create a framework that better integrates WBLCA into the Building Project Process (BPP). A questionnaire of software attributes in each stage of BPP and the challenges associated with incorporating WBLCA into the BPP was followed by interviews to establish a greater understanding of the software tool developers' responses. The integrative framework illustrates the character of the WBLCA in each stage of BPP, including the goal of the assessment, the relevant software attributes, the applicable databases, and the primary stakeholders engaged in the process. For instance, design-oriented software attributes are more relevant in the early stages, and, as the BPP progresses, the assessment requires more transparency in the assumptions and outcomes. The findings from this study will guide software developers and policymakers to develop tools and procedures more aligned with designers interests. • Sustainability software capabilities define the design process. • The sustainable design process moves from qualitative to quantitative metrics. • The key decision for LCA building design does not match certification requirements. • In-use results need to feed into the early stages of future projects.

Atmospheric carbon removal via industrial biochar systems: A techno-economic-environmental study

It is critical to develop carbon removal projects that are both effective and financially viable. Herein, we investigated the carbon removal potential of an industrial biochar system in Spain. This study is the first to assess the techno-economic-environmental impact of large-scale olive tree pruning residue pyrolysis for atmospheric carbon removal, using an integrated assessment framework that is based on current market dynamics. Production optimization using response surface methodology (RSM) was carried out, aiming to maximize yield, production throughput and stable carbon content while prioritizing stability. It was determined that optimized biochar production was attained at 650 °C and 15 min residence time. Furthermore, a biochar plant with a biomass processing capacity of 6.5 tonnes-per-hour was designed for further analysis. A thermodynamic model was developed using Advanced System for Process Engineering (ASPEN Plus) software, and the process was determined to be self-sufficient with the availability of surplus energy. Moreover, a life cycle assessment (cradle-to-grave) revealed that approximately 2.68 tCO2e are permanently removed from the atmosphere per tonne of biochar produced, after accounting for the carbon footprint of the entire process. This corresponds to a carbon removal capacity of 3.26 tCO2e per hour and the removal of approximately 24,450 tCO2e annually. The economic assessment revealed that the project is profitable; however, profitability is sensitive to pricing of the carbon removal service and biochar. A project internal rate of return (IRR) of 22.35% is achieved at a price combination of EUR 110/tonne CO2e removal and EUR 350/tonne biochar, and a feedstock cost of 45 EUR/tonne (delivered with 20% moisture content), where service and product pricing are both within the lower bound of market pricing. If the project was exclusively designed to offer a carbon removal service, a minimum price of EUR 206/tonne CO2e removal is required to achieve project profitability, based on the same feedstock cost. The findings of this study demonstrate the viability of immediately deploying large-scale biochar-based carbon removal via pyrolytic conversion of olive tree pruning residues to address the climate crisis.

Bridging the transparency gap in energy efficiency financing by co-designing an integrated assessment framework with involved actors

Energy efficiency investments are subject to various risks and uncertainties, which may affect involved actors’ profitability, and as such, there is a need for developing tools to support their decisions. So far, the developed methodological frameworks that aim at projecting the profitability and risk of such investments present a high technical complexity, and involved actors have difficulties in digesting their results. Consequently, despite their technical and academic value, the existing frameworks cannot achieve the essence of their scope, i.e., to provide concrete implications to capital providers. This article introduces the concept of IRR curve, as an appropriate tool for assessing the economic performance of energy efficiency investments from investors’ point of view. Based on this tool, an integrated framework for profitability assessment of energy efficiency investments is developed, by linking their economic performance and riskiness to investor preferences. The added value of this methodological framework lies in the comparability that it provides between different energy efficiency investments, thereby facilitating investment selection. Utilising this framework, capital providers can be supported in the selection of the country, sector, and project type to invest, while on the other hand, they can better comprehend the risk nature of energy efficiency investments as well as project their profitability and optimal investment holding period. To demonstrate the functionality of the proposed framework, we applied it to the German energy efficiency sector. Our findings provide evidence for the profitability potential of energy efficiency investments and implications about investment holding period.

Carrying out a multi-model integrated assessment of European energy transition pathways: Challenges and benefits

With the publication of the European Green Deal, the European Union has committed to reaching carbon neutrality by 2050. The envisaged reductions of direct greenhouse gases emissions are seen as technically feasible, but if a wrong path is pursued, significant unintended impacts across borders, sectors, societies and ecosystems may follow. Without the insights gained from an impact assessment framework reaching beyond the techno-economic perspective, the pursuit of direct emission reductions may lead to counterproductive outcomes in the long run. We discuss the opportunities and challenges related to the creation and use of an integrated assessment framework built to inform the European Commission on the path to decarbonisation. The framework is peculiar in that it goes beyond existing ones in its scope, depth and cross-scale coverage, by use of numerous specialised models and case studies. We find challenges of consistency that can be overcome by linking modelling tools iteratively in some cases, harmonising modelling assumptions in others, comparing model outputs in others. We find the highest added value of the framework in additional insights it provides on the technical feasibility of decarbonisation pathways, on vulnerability aspects and on unintended environmental and health impacts on national and sub-national scale.

A Hybrid Group Decision Approach Based on MARCOS and Regret Theory for Pharmaceutical Enterprises Assessment under a Single-Valued Neutrosophic Scenario

Evaluating pharmaceutical enterprises with sustainable and high-quality development ability (SHQDA) can not only provide strategies for the pharmaceutical management department in formulating enterprise development plans, but also provide suggestions and guidance for enterprises to enhance their core competitiveness. Nevertheless, the prior research possesses several deficiencies in coping with the assessment of enterprises with SHQDA under uncertain environments to predict the psychological behavior of the evaluator and the correlation among the evaluation criteria. To conquer the aforementioned defects, we propose an integrated framework for rating pharmaceutical enterprises that incorporates regret theory, measurement alternatives and ranking based on the compromise solution (MARCOS) and Heronian mean operating within a single-value neutrosophic set (SVNS) environment. First, the single-valued neutrosophic number (SVNN) is employed to portray the assessment information of experts. Then, a novel single-valued neutrosophic score function is presented to enhance the rationality of the SVNN comparison. Next, a combined criteria weight model is constructed by synthesizing the best and worst method (BWM) and criteria importance through intercriteria correlation (CRITIC) approach to attain more reasonable and credible weight information. Furthermore, the integrated assessment framework combining regret theory-MARCOS method and Heronian mean operator is put forward to assess and select the enterprises with SHQDA under a single-valued neutrosophic setting. Ultimately, an empirical concerning the pharmaceutical enterprises assessment is presented within SVNS to illustrate the usefulness and effectiveness of the presented SVNS regret theory-MARCOS method. Thereafter, the sensitivity analysis and comparison analysis are implemented to provide evidence for the rationality and superiority of the proposed method.

A New Integrated Assessment Framework for Climate-Smart Nutrition Security in sub-Saharan Africa: The Integrated Future Estimator for Emissions and Diets (iFEED)

Climate change will put millions more people in Africa at risk of food and nutrition insecurity by 2050. Integrated assessments of food systems tend to be limited by either heavy reliance on models or a lack of information on food and nutrition security. Accordingly, we developed a novel integrated assessment framework that combines models with in-country knowledge and expert academic judgement to explore climate-smart and nutrition-secure food system futures: the integrated Future Estimator for Emissions and Diets (iFEED). Here, we describe iFEED and present its application in Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia. The iFEED process begins with a participatory scenario workshop. In-country stakeholders identify two key drivers of food system change, and from these, four possible scenarios are defined. These scenarios provide the underlying narratives of change to the food system. Integrated modeling of climate change, food production and greenhouse gas emissions is then used to explore nutrition security and climate-smart agriculture outcomes for each scenario. Model results are summarized using calibrated statements—quantitative statements of model outcomes and our confidence in them. These include statements about the way in which different trade futures interact with climate change and domestic production in determining nutrition security at the national level. To understand what the model results mean for food systems, the calibrated statements are expanded upon using implication statements. The implications rely on input from a wide range of academic experts—including agro-ecologists and social scientists. A series of workshops are used to incorporate in-country expertise, identifying any gaps in knowledge and summarizing information for country-level recommendations. iFEED stakeholder champions help throughout by providing in-country expertise and disseminating knowledge to policy makers. iFEED has numerous novel aspects that can be used and developed in future work. It provides information to support evidence-based decisions for a climate-smart and nutrition-secure future. In particular, iFEED: (i) employs novel and inclusive reporting of model results and associated in-country food system activities, with comprehensive reporting of uncertainty; (ii) includes climate change mitigation alongside adaptation measures; and (iii) quantifies future population-level nutrition security, as opposed to simply assessing future production and food security implications.

An Integrated Assessment Framework for Transition to Water Circularity

Changing our unsustainable linear water management pattern is necessary to face growing global water challenges. This article proposes an integrated framework to analyse and understand the role of different contextual conditions in the possible transition towards water circularity. Our framework combines a systematic multi-level perspective to explore the water system and the institutional work theory for technology legitimation. The framework consists of the following stages: (1) describing and understanding the water context, (2) assessment of the selected technologies’ circularity level, (3) assessment of the alternative circular technologies’ legitimacy, and (4) identification of the legitimation actions to support the upscale of alternative circular technologies. The practical applicability of the integrated assessment framework and its four assessment stages was demonstrated in the exploration of circular water technologies for the horticulture sector in Westland, the Netherlands. The results revealed the conditions that hinder or enable the legitimation of the circular water technologies, such as political environmentalism, trust in water governing authorities, and technical, financial, and knowledge capabilities.

The role of food and land use systems in achieving India’s sustainability targets

The food and land use sector is a major contributor to India’s total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. On one hand, India is committed to sustainability targets in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sectors, on the other, there is little clarity whether these objectives can align with national developmental priorities of food security and environmental protection. This study fills the gap by reviewing multiple corridors to sustain the AFOLU systems through an integrated assessment framework using partial equilibrium modeling. We create three pathways that combine the shared socio-economic pathways with alternative assumptions on diets and mitigation strategies. We analyze our results of the pathways on key indicators of land-use change, GHG emissions, food security, water withdrawals in agriculture, agricultural trade and production diversity. Our findings indicate that dietary shift, improved efficiency in livestock production systems, lower fertilizer use, and higher yield through sustainable intensification can reduce GHG emissions from the AFOLU sectors up to 80% by 2050. Dietary shifts could help meet EAT-Lancet recommended minimum calorie requirements alongside meeting mitigation ambitions. Further, water withdrawals in agriculture would reduce by half by 2050 in the presence of environmental flow protection and mitigation strategies. We conclude by pointing towards specific strategic policy design changes that would be essential to embark on such a sustainable pathway.

A Framework for Assessing the Dynamic Coastlines Induced by Urbanization Using Remote Sensing Data: A Case Study in Fujian, China

The coastline plays an important role in indicating the conditions of social-economic development in the coastal zone. In this study, an integrated assessment framework was proposed to address the provincial and county-level spatiotemporal dynamics of continental coastlines from the perspectives of length, position, composition, and anthropogenic utilization quantitatively, and to explore the exact impacts of urbanization on coastline changes in the Fujian Province over the period from 1985 to 2020. Results showed that the total length of coastlines decreased first and then increased due to the different patterns of economic development. The proportion of artificial coastlines and the index of coastal utilization degree increased rapidly during the same period. Moreover, the seaward movement of coastlines due to the coastal reclamation projects resulted in a considerable increment in land areas. The pressure brought by the continuous concentration of population, built-up areas, and industrial districts under the rapid urbanization was the primary factor that increased the degree of anthropogenic disturbances in the coastal zone. Furthermore, the policies issued by the local or central government can be critical tipping points for coastline changes in different periods.

An Integrated DPSIR-SD Framework for Sustainability Assessment of Roads in Australia

The Australian Sustainability Development Goals (SDGs) Summit in 2018 attracted much-needed national attention towards environmental goals and targets compared with other aspects of sustainability. Road infrastructure is the backbone of modern society and plays a crucial role in accomplishing a targeted balance between these aspects of sustainability and achieving the SDGs. This article presents an integrated sustainability performance assessment methodology that acts as a decision support tool. A series of two conceptual modelling techniques—drivers—pressure—state—impact—response (DPSIR) and system dynamics (SD)—is employed, with the cause-and-effect relationships of the sustainability indicators developed utilising the DPSIR framework, and a quantitative analysis carried out through a subsequent SD model. The end result is the generation of a Sustainability Performance Index (SPI) for road infrastructure created by analysing the SD model and DPSIR index layer relationship. The benefits and applicability of the proposed methodology are validated through case study analysis. The overall aim is to determine restricting factors and response strategies influencing road infrastructure and transport sustainability performance during the operation and maintenance phase. Thus, a significant contribution is made through the proposed methodology for assessing factors influencing the long-term achievement of the SDGs.

Short-Term and Long-Term Impacts of Air Pollution Control on China's Economy.

To deal with severe air pollution arising from rapid development, a series of air pollution control policies have been implemented in China. Previous literature has explored the short-term economic impacts of air pollution control, but the long-term economic impacts, which can better reflect the effectiveness of air pollution control, have received less attention. This paper has constructed an integrated assessment framework combining a multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, air quality estimation module, and health impact module, to explore the short-term (2016) and long-term (2030) impacts of air pollution control on China's economy, by setting 2015 as the base year. The possible future air pollution reduction scenarios were set based on the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan (FYP13) proposed by the Chinese government. Our results have shown that air pollution control would harm China's economy and such adverse effects would be increased by stricter pollution reduction targets. Taking the health benefits of air pollution control into account can effectively alleviate the GDP losses, and even reverse them into economic benefits in the long term. Compared with business-as-usual (BAU) scenario (no policy constraints on SO2 and NOx emissions), the impact of air pollution control on GDP in the TAC_VIII scenario (emission reduction targets of 20% for SO2 and NOx are set every five years after 2015) would change from a loss of 1.20% in 2016 to an increase of 0.28% in 2030. Our results can provide policy implications for the optimization of China's air emissions control in the future.

Integrated assessment of trypanosomosis challenge on cow health and milk based on The Gambia's agropastoralism

To improve understanding of African Animal Trypanosomosis (AAT) and associated host-parasite relationship's challenges on cow and milk, The Gambia was examined given its enzootic status. Based on an integrated assessment framework, semi-structured questionnaires which were pre-tested and then administered in five regions were used. Relationships among the investigated variables were statistically explored with Pearson chi-square test and strength of association quantified with Phi or Cramer's V coefficient. Rough coat, eye and nose discharge, loss of appetite and weight were more consistently observed as signs of AAT in infected lactating cows. Older cows with more than three calving (75.8%) were indicated as the most susceptible and there is no fixed number of times (85.2%) a cow is treated for AAT in a year. The most commonly recognized effect (91.7%) of AAT is milk reduction. Statistically significant positive but moderate relationship exist between milk reduction and late dry season (phi coefficient of 0.221), between milk contamination and early dry season (phi coefficient of 0.226), and also between wateriness and rainy season (phi coefficient of 0.220). Milk discolouration is not statistically related to any season with highest AAT infection rates. The need for integrated assessment of veterinary challenges based on factors such as herd affiliation status, ethnic affiliation, and farmers’ objectives before preventive veterinary and production interventions are designed or implemented is implied. Useful information to advance research in this direction are presented.

Assessing Hydrological Cost-Effectiveness of Stormwater Multi-Level Control Strategies in Mountain Park under the Concept of Sponge City

Within the concept of sponge city in China, green stormwater measures have been widely used in urban mountain parks. This study provides an integrated assessment framework for hydrological cost-effectiveness in the Nanjing Guanyao Mountain Park under various precipitation scenarios. A grey drainage basic strategy and four multi-level control strategies with progressively increasing graded interception or storage facilities at mid-and terminal levels were designed and evaluated. Results show that the multi-level interception and storage strategy (S4) proved to be the most beneficial, followed by the multi-level interception strategy (S2) having slightly lower results than the multi-level storage strategy (S3), while the terminal strategy (S1) showed poor results. However, the hydrological cost-effectiveness exhibits the opposite trend under 2–5-year storms. A high multi-level strategy limited by life-cycle costs may not impart high hydrological cost-effectiveness in response to each return period of storms in this mountain stormwater practice. This study validates the hydrological performance and cost-effectiveness of multi-level distributed strategies in an urban mountain park, bridges the limitations of the previous studies on single scheme design and hydrological performance assessment for sloped sites, and provides a technical reference and design basis for similar studies and practices.

Development and synergetic evolution of the water-energy-food nexus system in the Yellow River Basin.

The water-energy-food nexus is a complex system where balancing the trade-offs across water, energy, and food sectors is especially difficult in resource-deficient areas. The Yellow River Basin is an area in which water shortages lead to conflicts among water, energy, and food resources. Thus, investigating the evolution state and spatial characteristics of the water-energy-food nexus in the Yellow River Basin is essential for the management of resources and sustainable development orientation of the region's water-energy-food nexus system. This study proposed an integrated assessment framework by using synergy theory and the integrated index system method. The improved Lotka-Volterra symbiotic model was used to elucidate the development and synergy evolution status of the water-energy-food nexus system in prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin between 2004 and 2019. The results show that the order degree of the water and energy subsystems in the Yellow River Basin increased by an average of 0.12 and 0.42, on average respectively, from 2004 to 2019, whereas that of the food subsystem only increased by an average of 0.004 compared to the initial year. Furthermore, most prefecture-level cities experienced subsystem degradation of one or two subsystems during the evolution of the water-energy-food nexus system. Based on the uniqueness and evolution process of each city, there are eight possibilities for system evolution and three types of feedback state between each pair of subsystems, which may lead to a certain spatial aggregation. Additionally, the interaction and competition states are more common than synergy states in the water-energy-food nexus system of the Yellow River Basin. This study provides an important basis and suggestions for the internal relationship and sustainable orientation of water-energy-food nexus systems in such water-deficient areas.