Integrated Assessment Approach Research Articles

An integrated approach to assess safety and security risks in chemical process industries

Chemical process industries (CPIs) face significant safety and security risks that are closely intertwined. However, previous research has predominantly examined these risks separately, lacking a comprehensive scientific approach to simultaneously analyze safety and security in critical systems. This research aims to propose an integrated approach to assess safety and security risks in CPIs. To achieve this, a taxonomy of safety and security risk factors consisting of four dimensions (i.e., occurrence probability, severity, vulnerability, and securing) and their respective twenty contributing factors has been developed. The validity and reliability of the taxonomy were assessed using the Delphi method, involving Subject Matter Experts (N=25), and through statistical analysis. Subsequently, the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) was employed to determine the importance level of each contributing factor and dimension, thereby enabling the integration of safety and security risk levels. The proposed approach was validated through reality checks, and independent peer review. The findings of this study highlight the dimensions and contributing factors that have the most significant impact on the integrated safety and security risk level. Moreover, the approach provides insights into effectively assigning countermeasures to establish a safe and resilient operation in CPIs. By adopting this integrated assessment approach, CPIs can gain a deeper understanding of the interplay between safety and security risks, allowing for more informed decision-making and the implementation of targeted risk mitigation strategies.

An Integrated Assessment Approach for Socio‐Economic Implications of the Desert Locust in Eastern Africa

AbstractDesert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) infestations cause significant damage to crops and pastureland, impeding food security and livelihoods globally. In recent years, some East African countries have suffered severe desert locust outbreaks, causing significant harm to agriculture and local communities. To comprehensively understand and mitigate the socio‐economic impacts of this pest, an integrated assessment approach is crucial. This study proposes an integrated assessment model that combines ecological, economic, and social dimensions to analyze the multifaceted impacts of the desert locust on the rate of urbanization changes, farming expansion, and food production and how they lead to food unavailability (demand, supply, and price) and food and nutrition insecurity in Eastern Africa. A system dynamics‐based assessment model was first developed for Sudan using the dynamic relations among the factors and their variations over time and how they affect the socio‐economic variables. The developed model was used to spatially simulate the impacts over the entire Eastern Africa. Various scenarios were further simulated and analyzed, incorporating different policy options to effectively mitigate the impacts. Results demonstrated that in all the countries, desert locusts extensively contribute to the slowing down of farming expansion and food production and supply. Consequently, these factors lead to increased urbanization rates through people rural‐urban migration and food demand at different magnitudes across different countries. By considering both short‐term and long‐term effects, this approach aims to provide policymakers, researchers, and practitioners with a holistic understanding of the complex dynamics involved and inform effective management strategies. For example, communities equipped with accurate breeding detection tools and employing an integrated pest management strategy combining chemical pesticides and biopesticides had the highest potential for effectively mitigating the future impacts of desert locusts for enhancing community livelihood.

The Effects of Incorporating Caraway into a Multi-Cropping Farming System on the Crops and the Overall Agroecosystem

The scientific aim of this article is to investigate the potential benefits of implementing a multi-cropping system, specifically focusing on the incorporation of caraway, to improve soil agrochemical and biological properties, prevent soil degradation and erosion, and ultimately enhance soil quality and health to better adapt to climate change. This study aims to provide valuable insights into the comparative analysis of various soil parameters and biological indicators to showcase the promising perspectives and importance of perennial crop production for improving soil quality and agricultural sustainability. These crops are designed to provide multiple benefits simultaneously, including improved yields, enhanced ecosystem services, and reduced environmental effects. However, an integrated assessment of their overall effects on the agroecosystem is crucial to understand their potential benefits and trade-offs. The field experiment was conducted over three consecutive vegetative seasons (2017 to 2021) at the Experimental Station of Vytautas Magnus University Agriculture Academy (VMU AA) in Kaunas district, Lithuania. The experimental site is located at 54°53′7.5″ N latitude and 23°50′18.11″ E longitude. The treatments within a replicate were multi-cropping systems of sole crops (spring barley (1), spring wheat (2), pea (3), caraway (4)), binary crops (spring barley–caraway (5), spring wheat–caraway (6), pea–caraway (7)), and trinary crops (spring barley–caraway–white clover (8), spring wheat–caraway–white clover (9), pea–caraway–white clover (10)) crops. However, an integrated assessment of their impact on the agroecosystem is needed to understand their potential benefits and processes. To determine the complex interactions between indicators, the interrelationships between indicators, and the strength of impacts, this study applied an integrated assessment approach using the comprehensive assessment index (CEI). The CEI values showed that integrating caraway (Carum carvi L.) into multi-cropping systems can have several positive effects. The effect of the binary spring barley and caraway and the trinary spring barley, caraway, and white clover crops on the agroecosystem is positively higher than that of the other comparative sole, binary, and trinary crops. Caraway, after spring wheat together with white clover, has a higher positive effect on the agroecosystem than caraway without white clover. Specifically, this study addresses key aspects, such as soil health, nutrient cycling, weed management, and overall agricultural sustainability, within the context of multi-cropping practices. By evaluating the effects of these cropping systems on soil agrochemical properties and ecosystem dynamics, the research provides valuable insights into sustainable agricultural practices that promote environmental conservation and long-term soil health.

Environmental performance of patient rooms using an integrated approach considering operational energy, daylight and comfort analysis

PurposeThe aim is to holistically assess the environmental performance of windows and analyse how their design and characteristics contribute to the overall performance of the building/space. This study focuses on the performance of windows in patient rooms hosting less mobile people.Design/methodology/approachThis study investigates the life cycle environmental impacts of different glazing types, window frames and fire safety doors at the product level. This article also presents a building-integrated environmental analysis of patient rooms that considers the multiple functionalities of windows by incorporating dynamic energy analysis, comfort and daylighting performance with a life cycle assessment (LCA) study.FindingsThe results indicate that the amount of flat glass is the main contributor to the environmental impacts of the glazing units. As for the patient rooms, global warming shows the most significant contribution to the environmental costs, followed by human toxicity, particulate matter formation and eutrophication. The key drivers for these impacts are production processes and operational energy use. This study highlights the significance of evaluating a wide range of criteria for assessing the performance of windows.Originality/valueAn integrated assessment approach is used to investigate the influence of windows on environmental performance by considering the link between window/design parameters and their effects on energy use/costs, daylighting, comfort and environmental impacts. The embodied impacts of different building elements and the influence of various design parameters on environmental performance are assessed and compared. The environmental costs are expressed as an external environmental cost (euro).

Screening for Palliative Care Need in Oncology: Validation of Patient-Reported Outcome Measures

ContextLeading oncology societies recommend monitoring symptoms and support needs through patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs), but their use for assessing specialist palliative care (SPC) need has not yet been explored. Research on SPC integration has focused on staff-assessed screening tools, which are time-consuming. ObjectivesThis study aimed to assess the diagnostic validity of the Integrated Palliative Outcome Scale (IPOS) and NCCN Distress Thermometer (NCCN DT) in identifying need for SPC in patients with incurable cancer. MethodsIn a cross-sectional study, patients with incurable cancer (prognosis <2 years) completed PROMs. In an independent process, the palliative care consultation service (PCCS) assessed the need for SPC in each patient through multiprofessional case review, and this was used as the reference standard. ROC analyses were employed to determine diagnostic validity. ResultsOf the 208 participants, 71 (34.1 %) were classified as having SPC need by the PCCS. Aiming for a minimum sensitivity of 80%, a cut-off of ≥2 items with high/very high burden in the IPOS resulted in a 90.2% sensitivity (specificity = 50; AUC = 0.791; CI 95%= 0.724–0.858). A cut-off of ≥5 resulted in a sensitivity of 80 % for NCCN DT (specificity = 49.5 %; AUC = 0.687; CI 95% = 0.596–0.777). ConclusionPROMs are useful for identifying SPC need in cancer patients. Their implementation might facilitate timely integration of SPC. Future research should focus on an integrated assessment approach with PROMs that combines the requirements of the different specialties to save patient and staff resources.

An Integrated Neutrosophic Approach for the Urban Energy Internet Assessment under Sustainability Dimensions

&#x0D; The urgent issue of climate change has resulted in an increasing preoccupation with the transition to low-carbon energy. The urban energy internet (UEI) enables the efficient utilization of renewable energy via the integration of contemporary energy grids, smart energy services, and cyber-physical systems. Consequently, the assessment of urban energy is vital for the construction of low-carbon cities. This study intends to provide an integrated decision-making approach for addressing assessment challenges related to UEI, with a focus on sustainability. The introduced approach adopts the opinions of three experts to express their opinions through semantic terms in evaluating sustainability factors and evaluating UEI projects. Determining the most suitable project for sustainable UEI is a difficult task. In addition, there are multiple sustainability dimensions, including: economic, social, technical, environmental and resource dimension. This paper presents an integrated approach through which experts can use semantic terms to express their opinions to evaluate the priorities of sustainability dimensions that affect the sustainability of UEI projects. Therefore, this study applies a hybrid multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approach that takes into account multiple dimensions. Also, the uncertainty in the study is handled by type 2 neutrosophic numbers (T2NNs). Initially, the CRiteria Importance through Inter-criteria Correlation (CRITIC) method was used to determine the relative importance of the sustainability dimensions used in the study. Also, the evaluation based on distance from average solution (EDAS) method was used to rank the selected alternatives. The results indicate that the technical dimension is the most important with a weight of 0.384. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to prove the validity and reliability of the developed framework with differences in weights.&#x0D;

Comprehensive evaluation of air pollution emission permit allocation: Effectiveness, efficiency, and equity in China's environmental management framework

Though the emission permit system is a pivotal policy in China's environmental management, there's a lack of comprehensive assessments for air pollutant emission quota allocation. In this study, a comprehensive 3E integrated assessment approach, encompassing the dimensions of Effectiveness, Efficiency, and Equity, was employed to thoroughly evaluate methods for allocating air pollution emission permits. This analysis was based on plant-level data derived from 9181 industrial enterprises situated in seven major cities within the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China during the year 2017. The Effectiveness assessment encompassed the utilization of the WRF-CMAQ model for simulating air pollution concentrations of PM2.5, SO2, and NO2. The findings underscored the imperative need for intensified efforts to control PM2.5 and NO2 emissions, particularly in achieving compliance with the national annual average level II thresholds. Efficiency assessment navigated the delicate balance between environmental benefits and costs, with a particular emphasis on health benefits and expenses associated with pollution abatement. The results revealed annual net benefits ranging from 8.4 to 19.9 billion yuan, illuminating a highly favorable cost-benefit equilibrium. Equity assessment delved into the examination of the equitable distribution of resources and impacts. Utilizing metrics of Environmental Gini Coefficient (EGC) and Green Contribution Coefficient (GCC), the analysis uncovered disparities in most scenarios and cities, shedding light on areas necessitating targeted policy interventions. Overall, the integrated 3E assessment offers a holistic comprehension of policy impacts. Based on the overall 3E weighted scores, results showed that the allocation method that considered both the emission standard and the pollutant transmission (Scenario S2) outperformed among the three designed allocation methods. In the future, policy efforts should focus on enhancing comprehensive assessments, ensuring the sustainable development and betterment of environmental quality through air pollution control measures.

Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Risks under Future Climate and Land-Use-Change Scenarios in the Yellow River Basin

The primary innovation of this study lies in the development of an integrated modeling framework that combines downscaled climate projections, land-use-change simulations, and copula-based risk analysis. This framework allows for the assessment of localized sub-seasonal and seasonal drought hazards under future scenarios. The BCC-CSM1-1 climate model projections from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset are utilized to represent the future climate for 2025–2060 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The CA-Markov model is employed to predict future land-use-change distributions. The climate–land use–drought modeling nexus enables the generation of refined spatio-temporal projections of meteorological and hydrological drought risks in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) in the future period of 2025–2060. The results highlight the increased vulnerability of the upper YRB to sub-seasonal meteorological droughts, as well as the heightened sub-seasonal hydrological drought risks in the Loess Plateau. Furthermore, downstream areas experience escalated seasonal hydrological drought exposure due to urbanization. By providing actionable insights into localized future drought patterns, this integrated assessment approach advances preparedness and climate adaptation strategies. The findings of the study enhance our understanding of potential changes in this integral system under the combined pressures of global climate change and land use shifts.

Multicriteria assessment of alternative cropping systems at farm level. A case with maize on family farms of South East Asia

CONTEXTIntegration of farms into markets with adoption of maize as a cash crop can significantly increase income of farms of the developing world. However, in some cases, the income generated may still be very low and maize production may also have strong negative environmental and social impacts. OBJECTIVEMaize production in northern Laos is taken as a case to study how far can farms' performance be improved with improved crop management of maize with the following changes at field level: good timing and optimal soil preparation and sowing, allowing optimal crop establishment and low weed infestation. METHODSWe compared different farm types' performance on locally relevant criteria and indicators embodying the three pillars of sustainability (environmental, economic and social). An integrated assessment approach was combined with direct measurement of indicators in farmers' fields to assess eleven criteria of local farm sustainability. A bio-economic farm model was used for scenario assessment in which changes in crop management and the economic environment of farms were compared to present situation. The farm model was based on mathematical programming maximizing income under constraints related to i) household composition, initial cash and rice stocks and land type, and ii) seasonal balances of cash, labour and food. The crop management scenarios were built based on a diagnosis of the causes of variations in the agronomic and environmental performances of cropping systems, carried out in farmers' fields. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONSOur study showed that moderate changes in crop management on maize would improve substantially farm performance on 4 to 6 criteria out of the 11 assessed, depending on farm types. The improved crop management of maize had a high economic attractiveness for every farm type simulated (low, medium and high resource endowed farms) even at simulated production costs more than doubling current costs of farmers' practices. However, while an improvement of the systems performance was attained in terms of agricultural productivity, income generation, work and ease of work, herbicide leaching, improved soil quality and nitrogen balance, trade-offs were identified with other indicators such as erosion control and cash outflow needed at the beginning of the cropping season. SIGNIFICANCEUsing farm modelling for multicriteria assessment of current and improved maize cropping systems for contrasted farm types helped capture main opportunities and constraints on local farm sustainability, and assess the trade-offs that new options at field level may generate at farm level.

Integrative risk assessment method via combining geostatistical analysis, random forest, and receptor models for potentially toxic elements in selenium-rich soil

Revealing the spatial features and source of associated potentially toxic elements (PTEs) is crucial for the safe use of selenium (Se)-rich soils. An integrative risk assessment (GRRRA) approach based on geostatistical analysis (GA), random forest (RF), and receptor models (RMs) was first established to investigate the spatial distribution, sources, and potential ecological risks (PER) of PTEs in 982 soils from Ziyang City, a typical natural Se-rich area in China. RF combined with multiple RMs supported the source apportionment derived from the RMs and provided accurate results for source identification. Then, quantified source contributions were introduced into the risk assessment. Eighty-three percent of the samples contain Cd at a high PER level in local Se-rich soils. GA based on spatial interpolation and spatial autocorrelation showed that soil PTEs have distinct spatial characteristics, and high values are primarily distributed in this research areas. Absolute principal component score/multiple line regression (APCS/MLR) is more suitable than positive matrix factorization (PMF) for source apportionment in this study. RF combined with RMs more accurately and scientifically extracted four sources of soil PTEs: parent material (48.91%), mining (17.93%), agriculture (8.54%), and atmospheric deposition (24.63%). Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) demonstrates a 47.73% probability of a non-negligible risk (RI > 150) caused by parent material and 3.6% from industrial sources, respectively. Parent material (64.20%, RI = 229.56) and mining (16.49%, RI = 58.96) sources contribute to the highest PER of PTEs. In conclusion, the GRRRA method can comprehensively analyze the distribution and sources of soil PTEs and effectively quantify the source contribution to PER, thus providing the theoretical foundation for the secure utilization of Se-rich soils and environmental management and decision making.

Urban Green Development and Resilient Cities: A First Insight into Urban Forest Planning in Italy

The research proposes an application of a modification of the 3–30–300 rule to identify areas that require Urban Forestry implementation in small and medium-sized Roman and/or medieval urban areas. The selected case study is that of Asti in Piedmont, Italy. An open source, cross-platform desktop geographic information system is used to process geospatial datasets via qualitative analyses of electoral sections (or wards). An analysis of the number and distribution of trees around each building is performed, in addition to the calculation of tree canopy cover and distance between buildings and green spaces. Findings reveal that 64 out of 70 wards have an average of at least three trees per building and sufficient green areas of at least 0.5 hectares within 300 m of the buildings. Additionally, the tree canopy cover ranges from approximately 0.6% (lowest) to about 55% (highest) for the electoral sections. Lastly, findings suggest that the highly built-up urban fabric in these areas may significantly affect the availability and quality of green spaces. In conclusion, the case study proves the benefits of applying the 3–30–300 rule to small and medium-sized urban areas using an integrated assessment approach based on nature-based solutions and ecosystem services.

A review on the integrative approach for economic valuation of forest ecosystem services

Forests have the most biodiversity and provide vital ecosystem services. They offer numerous forest-related services, some of which can be commercialized. This improves social, cultural, health, and scientific life. Nonmarketable and intangible services are discounted because people think they're endless and free. Humans have changed the natural and social worlds through using resources and improving well-being. Public and private decision-makers often compete over natural capital. The loss of biodiversity, climate change, and global warming are interconnected with social development and ensuring an acceptable level of well-being for the majority of humanity, making it difficult for a single, individual approach to estimating the value of these goods and services to generate and support decisions and policies in these complex areas. The complexity of ecosystem products and services requires an integrated assessment with cutting-edge technologies and approaches using a pluralist framework of heterogeneous values. This evaluation should encompass costs and benefits of several ecosystem commodity and service applications. These usage' effects on economic, social, and cultural advancement are also crucial. The extensive and thorough enthronization of natural ecosystems can affect the amount and quality of ecosystem goods and services; thus, it is vital to quantify the complicated inverse effect from civilization to nature. Studies show that incorporating sustainability sciences approaches into an integrative assessment approach may be vital to environmental policy in the future.

Numerical investigations and evaluation of a puga geothermal reservoir with horizontal wells using a fully coupled thermo-hydro-geomechanical model (THM) and EDAS associated with AHP

Puga geothermal reservoir in India gives promising results for the extraction of geothermal energy. On the other hand, no systematic studies were conducted to analyze the Puga geothermal reservoir's thermo-hydro-geomechanical behavior while heat extraction. Most of the researchers concentrated more on the geological and geophysical aspects of the Puga hot spring and provided basic geological data. This information is now being examined as input towards the construction of geothermal reservoirs. In this study, the THM model is enhanced by including additional dynamic fluid, rock, and fracture features, and an integrated assessment approach is anticipated to improve the heat extraction possibilities of the Puga geothermal reservoir. The variation in rock temperature in the vicinity of the production well is influenced less compared to the vicinity of the injection well. The low-temperature region is initially befalling in the vicinity of hydraulic fractures with high conductivity, flow rate, and strong heat convection further it extends to the rock matrix. Twelve injection-production scenarios were proposed for the Puga geothermal reservoir to extract heat energy with single and dual production wells and single injection well. Scenario-2 and scenario-8 are significantly showing high production temperatures when compared to other proposed scenarios. A multi-index-based evaluation system that consists of geothermal reservoir life, thermal breakthrough time, reservoir impedance, heat power, and heat recovery is employed to examine the geothermal extraction from the Puga geothermal reservoir. An integrated evaluation technique was projected for geothermal extraction which is created by coupling the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and evaluation based on distance from average solution (EDAS) techniques. The performance of twelve injection-production scenarios of the Puga geothermal reservoir are evaluated using the integrated evaluation technique. The results show that scenario-11 and scenario-9 were found to be the top two scenarios for the extraction of heat from the Puga geothermal reservoir. The results demonstrate that the proposed integrated evaluation system and improved THM model can be used for the evaluation of geothermal reservoirs effectively.

A Roadmap for an Integrated Assessment Approach to the Adaptation of Concrete Bridges to Climate Change

Bridges play a crucial role in modern societies, regardless of their culture, geographical location, or economic development. The safest, most economical, and most resilient bridges are those that are well managed and maintained. Recently, climate change has been posed as one of the greatest concerns for the health of bridges. Although the uncertainty associated with the magnitude of the change is large, the fact that our climate is changing is unequivocal. As a result, making bridges resilient to climate change is a priority for the authorities. A well-planned early intervention may save lives and money. Until now, the focus of scientific research has mostly been on the climate science, but any practical plan for the adaptation of bridges has to be rooted in other disciplines, including physics, chemistry, engineering, economics, and finance. Therefore, the goal of this paper is to review the work already done from climate change to bridges and set a roadmap for an integrated assessment approach to the adaptation of bridges to climate change. This approach is grounded in a probabilistic- and physics-based framework able to prioritize bridge adaptation measures as a function of bridge location, climate scenario, impact, vulnerability, risk, and cost in order to assist the authorities in the decision-making process. Because adaptation to climate change is highly context-specific, this approach is mainly focused on concrete bridges. Structural health monitoring technology is proposed as a mechanism for assessing and continuously evaluating the structural condition of bridges and for triggering adaptation measures as a function of the predicted severity of climate change.

Adaptive fisheries responses may lead to climate maladaptation in the absence of access regulations

Adaptive fishery responses to climate-induced changes in marine fish populations may lead to fishery maladaptation. Using a stylised bio-economic model of the global fishery, we demonstrate the importance of adaptive management regimes. We show how the losses resulting from poor access regulation increase in a fishery system negatively impacted by environmental change, and demonstrate the proportional benefits provided by management strategies that control the levels and allocation of fishing effort. Indeed, under poor to nonexistent access regulation, highly adaptive actors can generate significant bio-economic losses. This might lead to foregone benefits and cascading economic and ecological losses, whereas well-designed adaptive management regimes may enable making the most of the best, and the least of the worst, climate-induced outcomes for fisheries. These findings emphasize the need for integrated assessment approaches to the impacts of climate change on fisheries, that should incorporate not only ecological responses but also the industry and management responses.

An integrated conceptual model to characterize the effects of offshore wind farms on ecosystem services

Offshore wind farm development has become a key measure of energy transition in recent years. Coastal territories are particularly favorable to the development of offshore wind farms due to their high energy potential. However, these areas are also hotspots of biodiversity, provide attractive landscapes and are under strong anthropogenic pressures. Preserving and sharing the natural and cultural resources of coastal territories while intensifying renewable marine energies, represents one of the most important challenges for future management of coastal environments. Consequently, systemic models that consider all the effects of offshore wind farms on ecosystems and society are essential. Here, we propose a conceptual model for studying these effects, by mobilizing the concept of ecosystem service in a systemic and integrated assessment approach. To that aim, we reviewed the literature and compiled experts’ knowledge in order to characterize the effects of offshore wind farms on food webs during the construction and operation phases. Then, we analyzed the contribution of trophic compartments on ecosystem functions, ecosystem services and beneficiaries, and how offshore wind farms modify the relationships between these compartments of the marine coastal social-ecological systems. Our approach helps identify the causal chains that generate the most important modifications in this system. This information could then be used to predict impacts of offshore wind farms on ecosystem services, and to suggest management trade-offs. This study reveals the need for further studies relating marine biodiversity to ecosystem services, and developing systemic approaches at different scales. The analysis of the effects of offshore wind farms on ecosystem services is crucial since it is linked to strong ecological, socio-economic and political issues.

An Integrated Multi-Factor Coupling Approach for Marine Dynamic Disaster Assessment in China’s Coastal Waters

Marine dynamic disasters, such as storm surges and huge waves, can cause large economic and human losses. The assessment of marine dynamic disasters is, thus, important, but improvements to its reliability are needed. The current study improved and integrated the assessment from the perspective of multi-factor coupling. Using a weighted index system, a marine dynamic disaster assessment indicator system suitable for China’s coastal waters was established, and a method for calculating the weight of disaster indicators was proposed from the perspective of rapid assessment. To reduce the assessment deviation in coastal waters, a multi-factor coupling algorithm was proposed. This algorithm obtained amplitude variations of wave orbital motion in horizontal and vertical directions, which was used to evaluate the influence of background current and terrain slope on coastal ocean waves. Landsat 8 remote sensing images were used to carry out an object-oriented extraction of raft and cage aquaculture areas in China’s coastal waters. The aquaculture density was then used as the main basis for a vulnerability assessment. Finally, the whole assessment system was integrated and verified during a typical storm surge process in coastal waters around the Shandong Peninsula in China. The coupled variations were also added to the assessment process and increased the risk value by an average of 12% in the High Sea States of the case study.

Assessment of Rural Vulnerability to Sand and Dust Storms in Iran

Climate-related hazards such as sand and dust storms (SDS) have various impacts on human health, socio-economy, environment, and agroecosystems. Iran has been severely affected by domestic and external SDS during the last two decades. Considering the fragile economy of Iran’s rural areas and the strong dependence of livelihood on agroecosystems, SDS cause serious damage to human communities. Therefore, there is an urgent need to conduct a vulnerability assessment for developing SDS risk mitigation plans. In this study, various components of SDS vulnerability were formulated through a geographic information system (GIS)-based integrated assessment approach using composite indicators. By implementing a GIS multiple-criteria decision analysis (GIS-MCDA) model using socioeconomic and remote sensing data, a map of rural vulnerability to SDS was produced. Our results show that about 37% of Iran’s rural areas have experienced high and very high levels of vulnerability to SDS. Rural areas in the southeast and south of Iran, especially Sistan and Baluchestan and Hormozgan provinces are more vulnerable to SDS. The findings of this study provide a basis for developing SDS disaster risk-reduction plans and enabling the authorities to prioritize SDS mitigation policies at the provincial administrative scale in Iran.

The CASPER project: an integrated approach for pollution risk assessment in peri-urban groundwater catchment areas

Abstract. In 2020, the European Union has established a recast of the 1998 EU Directive on the quality of water intended for human consumption, hereafter called Drinking Water Directive – DWD. One of the most significant innovative point in this recast is the introduction of an innovative “complete risk-based approach to water safety, covering the whole supply chain from the catchment area, abstraction, treatment, storage and distribution to the point of compliance” (article 7). In practice, a 3-level risk assessment and risk management is expected: (1) at the level of the catchment area (article 8), (2) at the level of the water supply systems (article 9) and (3) at the level of the domestic distribution system (article 10). In this context, the CASPER project, funded by SPGE in the Walloon Region of Belgium, aims at developing an integrated approach for the evaluation and management of pollution risks for peri-urban groundwater catchments. The approach, which fully complies with the requirements of the DWD recast, consists of several key components. First, point and diffuse pollution sources are identified in the groundwater catchment area based on a mapping of hazardous activities combined with a specific groundwater monitoring survey aiming at identifying specific tracers of such sources of pollution. In a second step, risks associated to each of the identified source of pollution is estimated based on the measurement of pollutant mass fluxes and mass discharges downgradient these sources. Finally, a groundwater flow and transport model is developed at the scale of the groundwater catchment area, with the aim of evaluating the cumulative effect of the multiple sources on groundwater quality deterioration in the catchment and at the abstraction points. The objective here is to describe the CASPER approach and to illustrate it using ongoing investigations in a peri-urban groundwater catchment exploiting groundwater from a chalk aquifer in Western Belgium.

Epidemiology and Transmission Dynamics of Infectious Diseases and Control Measures.

The epidemiology and transmission dynamics of infectious diseases must be understood at the individual and community levels to improve public health decision-making for real-time and integrated community-based control strategies. Herein, we explore the epidemiological characteristics for assessing the impact of public health interventions in the community setting and their applications. Computational statistical methods could advance research on infectious disease epidemiology and accumulate scientific evidence of the potential impacts of pharmaceutical/nonpharmaceutical measures to mitigate or control infectious diseases in the community. Novel public health threats from emerging zoonotic infectious diseases are urgent issues. Given these direct and indirect mitigating impacts at various levels to different infectious diseases and their burdens, we must consider an integrated assessment approach, 'One Health', to understand the dynamics and control of infectious diseases.