Abstract Background/Introduction In previous studies, level of exercise and AF risk seems to have nonlinear relationship. Vigorous physical activities have been considered as a risk factor of atrial fibrillation (AF). However, other studies have shown regular exercise to be associated with reduced incidence, symptoms, recurrence, and burden of AF. Conversely, a sedentary lifestyle is an important risk factor for the development of AF. Currently, the effect of exercise amount on the risk of AF among patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) according to diabetes duration has not been examined. Purpose This study aimed to evaluate the effect of exercise amount on incident AF among patients with DM using a nationwide population cohort. Methods The subjects with type 2 DM who underwent the Korean National Health Insurance Service health examination during 2015 and 2016 were identified. The study population was divided into four groups according to DM duration (new onset, less than 5 years, 5 to 10 years, and more than 10 years). Also, they were categorized into four groups according to the amount of exercise (0, <500, 500 to 1000, 1000-1500, and ≥1500 METs-Min per week). The study outcome was incident AF. Results A total of 2,392,486 subjects with a mean follow-up duration of 3.9 ± 0.9 years were enrolled (mean age 59.3 ± 12.0, female 39.8%). The mean DM duration was 5.3 ± 5.1 years, and the mean exercise amount was 643.0 ± 638.0 METs-min/week. 704,732 subjects were new-onset DM, 649,811 subjects had less than 5 years of DM duration, 464,870 subjects had DM duration between 5 to 10 years, and 573,073 subjects had more than 10 years of DM. As the DM duration became longer, age, the prevalence of comorbidities (hypertension, chronic kidney disease, chronic heart failure, prior myocardial infarction, prior stroke, and prior peripheral artery disease), the prevalence of more than three oral anti-diabetes medications, and insulin usage increased sequentially (all p<0.0001). In each DM duration group, the exercise amount of AF risk showed slightly different relationship. The new-onset DM group and DM duration 5 to 10 years groups showed the most reduced AF risk in exercise amounts 1000 -1500 METs-Min/week (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.98, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.82-0.96 p=0.0016 and adjusted HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.77-0.89, p=0.0098, respectively). The DM duration less than 5 years and more than 10 years groups both showed the lowest risk in exercise ≥1500 METs-Min/week (adjusted HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.85-0.97; adjusted HR 0.85, 95% CI 0.81-0.90, both p<0.001). Conclusions Regular exercise of more than ≥1500 METs-Min/week did not increase the risk of AF risk in DM patients. It was associated with reduced AF risk in all DM patients except new-onset DM. Further study is needed to assess the biophysiological change regarding DM duration that could affect the AF risk.
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