Insect Outbreaks Research Articles

Which trees die during drought? The key role of insect host‐tree selection

Abstract During drought, the tree subpopulations (such as size or vigour classes) that suffer disproportionate mortality can be conceptually arrayed along a continuum defined by the actions of biotic agents, particularly insects. At one extreme, stress dominates: insects are absent or simply kill the most physiologically stressed trees. At the opposite extreme, host selection dominates: outbreaking insects kill trees independently of their stress, instead selecting trees based on size or other traits. Intermediate responses are also possible. Yet for mixed‐species forests, we lack a broad understanding of the relative importance of insects in determining exactly which subpopulations of trees suffer disproportionate mortality during drought, and whether these subpopulations differ among co‐occurring tree species. During an extreme drought, we documented the roles of native bark beetles in the mortality of five tree species in California’s Sierra Nevada. We analysed the patterns and agents of tree mortality in 12 permanent plots and the patterns of mortality in 89 temporary plots. Most tree mortality was associated with bark beetles. However, the growth rates (an indicator of chronic stress) and sizes of trees that suffered greatest bark beetle‐related mortality differed sharply among tree taxa, variously conforming with domination by stress (Abies concolor), domination by host selection (Pinus lambertiana and P. ponderosa) or a mix of the two (Calocedrus decurrens). Quercus kelloggii mortality remained relatively low. Thus, even during extreme drought substantial proportions of stressed trees survived because they were of sizes that mostly avoided fatal insect attack. Conversely, substantial proportions of comparatively unstressed trees died because they were of sizes that were selectively killed by outbreaking insects. Synthesis. Native bark beetles were primarily responsible for determining which subpopulations of trees suffered greatest mortality during drought. However, idiosyncratic host‐tree selection by the different bark beetle taxa meant that the tree subpopulations suffering greatest mortality differed strikingly among tree taxa—for example, high mortality of small trees of one species, but of large trees of another. If idiosyncratic host‐tree selection by biotic mortality agents proves to be a generally common phenomenon, it could help explain weak broadscale correlations between tree traits and tree mortality during drought.

Impact of Disturbances on the Carbon Cycle of Forest Ecosystems in Ukrainian Polissya

Climate change continues to threaten forests and their ecosystem services while substantially altering natural disturbance regimes. Land cover changes and consequent management entail discrepancies in carbon sequestration provided by forest ecosystems and its accounting. Currently there is a lack of sufficient and harmonized data for Ukraine that can be used for the robust and spatially explicit assessment of forest provisioning and regulation of ecosystem services. In the frame of this research, we established an experimental polygon (area 45 km2) in Northern Ukraine aiming at estimating main forest carbon stocks and fluxes and determining the impact caused by natural disturbances and harvest for the study period of 2010–2015. Coupled field inventory and remote sensing data (RapidEye image for 2010 and SPOT 6 image for 2015) were used. Land cover classification and estimation of biomass and carbon pools were carried out using Random Forest and k-Nearest Neighbors (k-NN) method, respectively. Remote sensing data indicates a ca. 16% increase of carbon stock, while ground-based computations have shown only a ca. 1% increase. Net carbon fluxes for the study period are relatively even: 5.4 Gg C·year−1 and 5.6 Gg C C·year−1 for field and remote sensing data, respectively. Stand-replacing wildfires, as well as insect outbreaks and wind damage followed by salvage logging, and timber harvest have caused 21% of carbon emissions among all C sources within the experimental polygon during the study period. Hence, remote sensing data and non-parametric methods coupled with field data can serve as reliable tools for the precise estimation of forest carbon cycles on a regional spatial scale. However, featured land cover changes lead to unexpected biases in consistent assessment of forest biophysical parameters, while current management practices neglect natural forest dynamics and amplify negative impact of disturbances on ecosystem services.

Quantifying massive outbreaks of the defoliator mothOrmiscodes amphimonein deciduousNothofagus‐dominated southern forests using remote sensing time series analysis

AbstractForest insect outbreaks are one of the major biotic disturbances on natural and artificial landscapes. Although abundant literature of insect outbreaks exists in the Northern Hemisphere, studies for the Southern Hemisphere are rare. Recently, massive outbreaks of the native mothOrmiscodes amphimone(Fabricius) (Lepidoptera: Hemileucinae) have been reported in the southern cone of South America. TheseO. amphimoneoutbreaks have defoliated large areas of temperate forests, raising great concern among local inhabitants, but yet the spatio‐temporal patterns of these events have not been evaluated. Here, we quantify the extension of the massiveO. amphimoneoutbreaks occurred in the Aysén region (southern Chile) in the period 2000–2015 using a novel remote sensing approach and field data. Remote sensing detections were strongly in agreement with field observations and showed that massive outbreaks ofO. amphimoneare among the largest biotic disturbances in the forests of the Southern Hemisphere. Considering only field‐confirmed outbreaks, the defoliated area reached 164,000 hectares in total between 2000 and 2015. The estimation of the spatial impact ofO. amphimone, and its recurrence, represents the first step for the search of management alternatives of this massive disturbance.

Resistance, Resilience or Change: Post-disturbance Dynamics of Boreal Forests After Insect Outbreaks

Understanding and measuring forest resistance and resilience have emerged as key priorities in ecology and management, particularly to maintain forest functioning. The analysis of the factors involved in a forest’s ability to cope with disturbances is key in identifying forest vulnerability to environmental change. In this study, we apply a procedure based on combining pathway analyses of forest composition and structure with quantitative indices of resistance and resilience to disturbances. We applied our approach to boreal forests affected by a major spruce budworm outbreak in the province of Quebec (Canada). We aimed to identify the main patterns of forest dynamics and the environmental factors affecting these responses. To achieve this goal, we developed quantitative metrics of resistance and resilience. We then compared forests with different pre-disturbance conditions and explored the factors influencing their recovery following disturbance. We found that post-outbreak forest dynamics are determined by distinct resistance and resilience patterns according to dominant species and stand composition and structure. Black spruce forests are highly resistant to spruce budworm outbreaks, but this resistance is conditioned by the length of the defoliation period, with long outbreaks having the potential to lead the system to collapse. In contrast, balsam fir forests easily change to a different composition after outbreaks but are highly resilient when mixed with hardwood species. Overall, the severity of the disturbance and the tree species affected are the main drivers contributing to boreal forest resistance and resilience. Our procedure is valuable to understand post-disturbance dynamics of a broad range of communities and to guide management strategies focused on enhancing the resistance and resilience of the system.

Field evaluation of insecticides and application timing on natural enemies of selected armored and soft scales

Scale insects (Hemiptera: Coccoidea) are among the most problematic pests of woody plants in protected culture and urban landscapes. When outbreaks of scale insects occur, insecticides are often applied to reduce host damage. To select reduced risk insecticides that can complement the mortality contributed by natural enemies, the selectivity and residual toxicity of each insecticide must be considered within the context of the seasonal biology of both the pest and its natural enemies. We studied how timing of applying reduced risk insecticides affected the natural enemies of scales in relation to their life histories and seasonal abundance. This study was conducted on trees that were naturally infested with either the soft scale, calico scale Eulecanium cerasorum (Cockerell) or armored scales, striped pine scale Toumeyella pini (King) and pine needle scale Chionaspis pinifoliae (Fitch). Insecticides were applied to target the most susceptible life stages of each scale insect. We found that patterns of the seasonal abundance of natural enemies were synchronized with the life history of each scale insect and took the shape of a rising and falling wave. Overall, impacts of insecticides on parasitoids and predators were influenced by the timing of their applications in relation to when natural enemy abundance began to rise at the cusp of their wave of abundance. Application one month prior to this cusp did not reduce seasonal totals of natural enemy abundance, regardless of insecticide selectivity or residual toxicity. In contrast, when applications were made at the cusp of the natural enemy wave, foliar applications of bifenthrin had greater adverse side effects on natural enemy populations compared to foliar applications of pyriproxifen, spirotetramat, spiromesifin, and chlorantraniliprole or a soil application of dinotefuran. We present evidence to suggest that restricting applications during the cusp of the natural enemy activity wave can result in a better integration of chemical and biological control.

Drought Impacts and Compounding Mortality on Forest Trees in the Southern Sierra Nevada

The increase in compounding disturbances, such as “hotter droughts” coupled with insect outbreaks, has significant impacts on the integrity of forested ecosystems and their subsequent management for important ecosystem services and multiple-use objectives. In the Southern Sierra Nevada, years of severe drought have resulted in unprecedented tree mortality across this mountainous landscape. Additionally, past land management practices, including fire suppression, have led to overly stocked, homogenous forest stand structures, dominated by small diameter, shade-tolerant and fire-intolerant tree species. Thus, the current condition of the landscape has further increased the susceptibility of forest trees to multiple stressors. We sought to determine the effects of extreme drought and insect outbreaks on tree mortality and their influence on forest stand structure and composition. To characterize mortality patterns, we monitored the condition of mature forest trees (>25.4 cm diameter at breast height) across 255 monitoring plots with four repeated measurements from 2015 through 2017. Tree mortality varied by species and through time. Reductions in pine species (Pinus lambertiana Douglas and P. ponderosa Lawson & C. Lawson) occurred earlier in the study period than Abies concolor (Gord. & Glend.) Lindl. Ex Hildebr. or Calocedrus decurrens (Torr.) Florin. Across species, larger tree size, most often associated with tree height, was consistently related to increased survival in mature, overstory trees. As expected, sites with greater pine stocking and subsequently more bark beetle (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) host availability had increased pine mortality, especially for P. ponderosa. For Abies concolor, lower overstory basal area increased tree survival for this species. This study highlights the importance of effective forest monitoring, especially during a period of unprecedented ecological change as the compounding disturbance had a disproportional effect on pine species in smaller diameter classes. Proactive forest management may be necessary to maintain and promote these ecologically important species in heterogeneous mixtures across the landscape.

Living on the edge: trailing edge forests at risk of fire‐facilitated conversion to non‐forest

AbstractForests are an incredibly important resource across the globe, yet they are threatened by climate change through stressors such as drought, insect outbreaks, and wildfire. Trailing edge forests—those areas expected to experience range contractions under a changing climate—are of particular concern because of the potential for abrupt conversion to non‐forest. However, due to plant‐climate disequilibrium, broad‐scale forest die‐off and range contraction in trailing edge forests are unlikely to occur over short timeframes (<~25–50 yr) without a disturbance catalyst (e.g., wildfire). This underscores that explicit attention to both climate and disturbance is necessary to understand how the distribution of forests will respond to climate change. As such, we first identify the expected location of trailing edge forests in the intermountain western United States by mid‐21st century. We then identify those trailing edge forests that have a high probability of stand‐replacing fire and consider such sites to have an elevated risk of fire‐facilitated transition to non‐forest. Results show that 18% of trailing edge forest and 6.6% of all forest are at elevated risk of fire‐facilitated conversion to non‐forest in the intermountain western United States by mid‐21st century. This estimate, however, assumes that fire burns under average weather conditions. For a subset of the study area (the southwestern United States), we were able to incorporate expected fire severity under extreme weather conditions. For this spatial subset, we found that 61% of trailing edge forest and 30% of all forest are at elevated risk of fire‐facilitated conversion to non‐forest under extreme burning conditions. However, due to compounding error in our process that results in unknowable uncertainty, we urge caution in a strict interpretation of these estimates. Nevertheless, our findings suggest the potential for transformed landscapes in the intermountain western United States that will affect ecosystem services such as watershed integrity, wildlife habitat, wood production, and recreation.

Soil Nitrogen Leaching in Logged Beetle-Killed Forests and Implications for Riparian Fuel Reduction.

Recent extensive forest mortality and subsequent salvage logging may threaten the water supply from headwater catchments in western North America. Land managers confronting current insect outbreaks and projected increases in forest disturbance require information about the potential water quality consequences of these changes. This study is a hillslope-scale evaluation of soil N and C leaching in lodgepole pine forests that have experienced 80% overstory tree mortality. I measured extractable inorganic and ion resin exchangeable-N forms, in situ net mineralization and nitrification, and leaching in upland and riparian forests with the following treatment combinations: (i) uncut upland with uncut riparian, (ii) harvested upland with uncut riparian buffer, and (iii) harvested upland with harvested riparian. This design permitted comparison of N cycling and leaching in 30-m-wide riparian buffers and a riparian fuel break designed to remove canopy fuels and reduce wildfire concerns in areas with extensive bark beetle infestation. Harvesting increased NO-N, total dissolved N, and dissolved organic C leachate concentrations in upland landscapes but had little effect on net N transformations. Leachate N and C concentrations were 1.5 times higher in riparian buffers downslope of harvested uplands than those in riparian zones downslope of uncut uplands. Riparian forest harvest increased N leaching relative to uncut buffers, although postharvest concentrations remained well below regional water quality standards. Thus, while this study provides evidence that N leaching from dead buffers is low, it also suggests that riparian fuel reduction may complement wildfire mitigation objectives without compromising watershed protection.

Paleoecological and historical data as an important tool in ecosystem management

In recent decades, it has been observed that most forest fires in Europe were caused by people. Extreme droughts, which are more often prolonged, can increase the risk of forest fires, not only in southern Europe but also, in Central Europe. Nonetheless, catastrophic fire events are not well recognized in the Central European Lowlands (CEL), where large forest complexes are located. Knowledge of past fire activity in this part of Europe is scarce, although several fires have occurred in this area during the previous millennia. Large coniferous forest monocultures located in the CEL are highly susceptible to fires and other disturbances. Here, we present a case study from the Tuchola Pinewoods (TP; northern Poland), where large pine monocultures are present. The main aim of this study is to document the potential effects past land management has on modern day disturbance regimes using state-of-the-art paleoecological data, historical documents and cartographic materials. We then present a protocol that will help forest managers utilize long-term paleoecological records. Based on paleoecological investigations, historical documents, and cartographic materials, our results show that, in the past 300 years, the TP witnessed not only disastrous fires and but also windfalls by tornados and insect outbreaks. A change in management from Polish to Prussian/German in the 18th century led to the transformation of mixed forests into Scots pine monocultures with the purpose to allow better economic use of the forest. Those administrative decisions led to an ecosystem highly susceptible to disturbances. This article provides a critical review of past forest management as well as future research directions related to the impacts of fire risk on land management and ecosystem services: (a) habitat composition and structure (biodiversity); (b) natural water management; and (c) mitigation of climate changes. Designated forest conditions, management, and future fire risk are a controversial and highly debated topic of forest management by Forestry Units. More research will allow the gathering of reliable information pertinent to management practices with regard to the current fire risks. It is necessary to develop a dialog between scientists and managers to reduce the risk of fires in projected climate change.

Pathogens-The Hidden Face of Forest Invasions by Wood-Boring Insect Pests.

Forests are one of the most important global vegetation types, serving functions from supporting healthy watershed, to wildlife habitat, and economic industries through their harvesting and tourism value. Understanding and mitigating threats to these resources is therefore of great societal importance. Forest pests are among the most pertinent and obvious threats to forest health, with their impacts amplified by contemporary issues such as climate change and global trade (Allen et al., 2010; Wingfield et al., 2016). In particular, recent increases in the frequency and severity of insect outbreaks have led to the loss of significant forest areas from across the globe (Roy et al., 2014) and highlighted the need for rigorous research to understand the underlying basis of their impacts. Introduced wood-boring beetles have been particularly damaging, which are often released from competitors and predators in their new environments, and target healthy trees without evolved resistance. In their native range, they typically colonize only dead or dying trees and are, therefore, not recognized as harmful. Recent examples of invasive pests include the emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis), which primarily attacks ash trees, the redbay ambrosia beetle (Xyleborus glabratus) infesting members of the laurel family (Lauraceae), and the Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) and polyphagous shot hole borer (PSHB), which are capable of infesting a wide range of tree species (Baranchikov et al., 2008; Fraedrich et al., 2008; Haack et al., 2010; Eskalen et al., 2013; Paap et al., 2018). Since their accidental introductions from Asia, these aggressive pests have been implicated in the mortality of millions of trees in Europe and North America, and the potential for the further spread of these and other pest species poses a major threat to the health of global forests. While forest insect pests have understandably attracted strong research attention, especially in countries where forestry is a major economic industry, far less understood are the pathogens they carry and how these contribute to forest damage, especially under climate change. For instance, the redbay ambrosia beetle, PSHB and longhorned beetles described above have each been found to carry assemblages of fungi, including pathogenic species (Fraedrich et al., 2008; Linnakoski et al., 2018; Paap et al., 2018). Here we focus on fungal pathogens vectored by wood-boring insect pests, and argue that they can amplify the negative effects of these pests and cause significant forest damage in their own right (Fraedrich et al., 2008; Ploetz et al., 2013). The purpose of this opinion article is to shed light on these implications, discuss the mechanisms underlying their interactions with host trees, and highlight the research required to resolve gaps in knowledge and progress understanding of this topic.

ЕКОЛОГІЧНА ОБУМОВЛЕНІСТЬ СУЧАСНОГО СТАНУ ЛІСОВИХ КУЛЬТУРФІТОЦЕНОЗІВ КРИВОРІЖЖЯ

Досліджено лісові культурфітоценози Криворіжжя, які репрезентують усі основні різновиди штучних деревних насаджень регіону. Сучасний стан лісових культурфітоценозів характеризується несформованою вертикальною структурою (в більшості випадків відсутні яруси підліску та чагарників); ущільненими посадками першого та другого ярусів; невисокими значеннями запасів стовбурної деревини; ослабленим та сильно ослабленим життєвим станом деревостану.

A Self-Calibrated Non-Parametric Time Series Analysis Approach for Assessing Insect Defoliation of Broad-Leaved Deciduous Nothofagus pumilio Forests

Folivorous insects cause some of the most ecologically and economically important disturbances in forests worldwide. For this reason, several approaches have been developed to exploit the temporal richness of available satellite time series data to detect and quantify insect forest defoliation. Current approaches rely on parametric functions to describe the natural annual phenological cycle of the forest, from which anomalies are calculated and used to assess defoliation. Quantification of the natural variability of the annual phenological baseline is limited in parametric approaches, which is critical to evaluating whether an observed anomaly is “true” defoliation or only part of the natural forest variability. We present here a fully self-calibrated, non-parametric approach to reconstruct the annual phenological baseline along with its confidence intervals using the historical frequency of a vegetation index (VI) density, accounting for the natural forest phenological variability. This baseline is used to calculate per pixel (1) a VI anomaly per date and (2) an anomaly probability flag indicating its probability of being a “true” anomaly. Our method can be self-calibrated when applied to deciduous forests, where the winter VI values are used as the leafless reference to calculate the VI loss (%). We tested our approach with dense time series from the MODIS enhanced vegetation index (EVI) to detect and map a massive outbreak of the native Ormiscodes amphimone caterpillars which occurred in 2015–2016 in Chilean Patagonia. By applying the anomaly probability band, we filtered out all pixels with a probability <0.9 of being “true” defoliation. Our method enabled a robust spatiotemporal assessment of the O. amphimone outbreak, showing severe defoliation (60–80% and >80%) over an area of 15,387 ha of Nothofagus pumilio forests in only 40 days (322 ha/day in average) with a total of 17,850 ha by the end of the summer. Our approach is useful for the further study of the apparent increasing frequency of insect outbreaks due to warming trends in Patagonian forests; its generality means it can be applied in deciduous broad-leaved forests elsewhere.

The effect of local land use on aerial insectivorous bats (Chiroptera) within the two dominating crop types in the Northern-Caribbean lowlands of Costa Rica.

Land transformation into agricultural areas and the intensification of management practices represent two of the most devastating threats to biodiversity worldwide. Within this study, we investigated the effect of intensively managed agroecosystems on bat activity and species composition within two focal areas differing in landscape structure. We sampled bats via acoustic monitoring and insects with flight interception traps in banana and pineapple monoculture plantations and two nearby protected forested areas within the area of Sarapiquí, Costa Rica. Our results revealed that general occurrence and feeding activity of bats was higher above plantations compared to forested areas. We also recorded higher species richness at recording sites in plantations. This trend was especially strong within a fragmented landscape, with only four species recorded in forests, but 12 above pineapple plantations. Several bat species, however, occurred only once or twice above plantations, and forest specialist species such as Centronycteris centralis, Myotis riparius and Pteronotus mesoamericanus were only recorded at forest sites. Our results indicated, that mostly mobile open space and edge foraging bat species can use plantations as potential foraging habitat and might even take advantage of temporal insect outbreaks. However, forests are vital refugia for several species, including slower flying forest specialists, and thus a prerequisite to safeguard bat diversity within agricultural dominated landscapes.

Analyzing the impacts of forest disturbance on individual tree diameter increment across the US Lake States.

Disturbances play a critical role in forest ecosystem dynamics. Disturbances cause changes in forest structure which in turn influence the species composition of the site and alter landscape patterns over time. The impacts of disturbance are seen over a broad spectrum of spatial scales and varying intensities, ranging from biotic agents such as insect and leaf disease outbreaks to abiotic agents such as a windstorm (a stand-replacing disturbance). This study utilized Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data collected between 1999 and 2014 in the US Lake States (Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) to examine the impacts that disturbances have on the growth of residual trees using species-specific diameter increment equations. Results showed that animal and weather damage were the most common disturbance agents and fires were the least common in the region. Results also indicated that while the diameter increment equations performed well on average (overprediction of 0.08 ± 1.98cm/10years in non-disturbed stands), when the data were analyzed by species and disturbance agent, the model equation was rarely validated using equivalence tests (underprediction of 0.30 ± 2.24cm/10years in non-disturbed stands). This study highlights the importance of monitoring forest disturbances for their impacts on forest growth and yield.

Salvage logging after an insect outbreak reduces occupancy by snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) and their primary predators

Salvage logging after a natural disturbance is controversial because it may disrupt forest succession and reduce the value of wildlife habitat, but few studies have examined consequences on predator-prey systems. For herbivores that consume early-seral vegetation, salvage logging may simultaneously improve food abundance and reduce protective cover, imposing trade-offs that influence their habitat selection and that of their predators. We examined habitat use by snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus)—a keystone prey species in the boreal forest—and their primary predators, Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) and coyotes (Canis latrans), in response to salvage logging following a bark beetle outbreak in Yukon, Canada. We monitored hare, lynx, and coyote presence in beetle-affected forests and salvage-logged stands of different tree retention levels and ages (up to 25 years post-logging) using wildlife cameras, and modelled species occupancy as a function of forest structure at local and landscape scales. Snowshoe hares occupied stands with dense canopies and avoided salvage-logged stands regardless of retention class or age, selecting habitat with the most cover from aerial and terrestrial predators. Lynx and coyote generally used the same habitat as hares, selecting unsalvaged stands with high snowshoe hare occupancy. Habitat use by coyote and hare was more strongly linked than that of lynx and hare, perhaps because coyotes are versatile predators that can adjust their hunting tactics in dense habitat. Our study demonstrates that salvage-logged stands have lower value than beetle-affected forest for snowshoe hares and their predators in the short-term—regardless of retention levels—which may have localized impacts on boreal forest food webs. Higher tree retention, long harvest intervals, and small cut areas interspersed with large unlogged forest patches are recommended to mitigate negative impacts of salvage logging on these species.

Comparative Analysis of the Results of Modeling of Extreme Population Processes for Fish and Insects

Situations of sharp short-term changes in population processes can not be calculated by traditional mathematical models — a system for balance equilibrium. Unstable and short time shifts can not be expressed in terms of asymptotic dynamics — closed limit sets of the trajectory, stable cycles or even chaotic attractors. In our studies, it is carried out computational modeling of practically important scenarios of outbreaks and dangerous invasions related to extreme and transient dynamics. Ecosystems, like organisms, can not last for long in such transitional regimes. Outbreaks of the number of harmful insects in the form of individual peaks but not oscillating regimes have a number of features of threshold development. Unexpectedly, the problem of analysis of outbreaks intersects with the problem of modeling depletion of stocks in the fishery of fish. Rapid degradation of population size in the collapse scenarios could not be predicted in time by the methods of calculating the catch quotas (shown on examples of cod of the North Atlantic and anchovy of Peru), because the rates of restoration of reserves were incorrectly estimated. A key aspect in the methodology for constructing hybrid models is the formalization of nonlinear reproduction efficiency, which varies in a threshold manner. In the article it is proved the advantages of the method of purposeful realization of bifurcations in hybrid systems. It has been carried out the comparative analysis of new model scenarios for extreme situations with similar phases during the collapse of fish stocks and insect outbreaks of pests obtained by modifying functional in the basic hybrid system. Five variants of qualitative behavior of hybrid systems that are important for modeling of biosystems were identified.

SIMULATION OF FLUCTUATIONS OF AGGRESSIVE ALIEN SPECIES IN CONTINUOUS MODELS WITH INDEPENDENT REGULATION

Traditional models in biology do not describe modern extraordinary situations when the whole species composition is mixed. The article deals with oscillatory equations and non-dissipative population dynamics for specific environmental situations that are associated with alien species in ecosystems. During the invasion of new species, the resistance of the biotic environment may be completely absent for a considerable time. Under such conditions, with a high specific fecundity, nonstationary regimes of change in numbers arise. A pest outbreak is realized with an explosive growth phase. All outbreaks of fish and insects are some brief extreme episodes that end with a new state of the environment and the aggressive new species. Completion options are varied even in the example of one malicious species of comb jelly Mnemiopsis leidyi in Azov and Caspian Sea. Transition to relaxation oscillations after a comb jelly outbreak is possible. A new species may become a small group or even disappear in case minN(t; r) = 0. The paper proposes a model based on the lagging regulation for actual scenarios of population behaviour in a new environment. In computational experiments we have shown the conditions for stabilization after an outbreak in an extremely small group of individuals or complete disappearance after collapse. A separate scenario describes the complete depletion of environmental resources during fluctuations with asignificant amplitude. The most relevant is the model scenario of stabilization at minimum values after a rapid change in the phases of the outbreak and a transition to the depression of the pest number in the modification of the differential equation of Bazykin and Hutchinson model.

Changes in Spatiotemporal Patterns of 20th Century Spruce Budworm Outbreaks in Eastern Canadian Boreal Forests.

In scenarios of future climate change, there is a projectedincrease in the occurrence and severity of natural disturbances inboreal forests. Spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana)(SBW) is the main defoliator of conifer trees in the North American boreal forests affecting large areas and causing marked losses of timber supplies. However, the impact and the spatiotemporal patterns of SBW dynamics at the landscape scale over the last century remain poorly known. This is particularly true for northern regions dominated by spruce species. The main goal of this study is to reconstruct SBW outbreaks during the 20th century at the landscape scale and to evaluate changes in the associated spatiotemporal patterns in terms of distribution area, frequency, and severity. We rely on a dendroecological approach from sites within the eastern Canadian boreal forest and draw from a large dataset of almost 4,000 trees across a study area of nearly 800,000 km2. Interpolation and analyses of hotspots determined reductions in tree growth related to insect outbreak periods and identified the spatiotemporal patterns of SBW activity over the last century. The use of an Ordinary Least Squares model including regional temperature and precipitation anomalies allows us to assess the impact of climate variables on growth reductions and to compensate for the lack of non-host trees in northern regions. We identified three insect outbreaks having different spatiotemporal patterns, duration, and severity. The first (1905–1930) affected up to 40% of the studied trees, initially synchronizing from local infestations and then migrating to northern stands. The second outbreak (1935–1965) was the longest and the least severe with only up to 30% of trees affected by SBW activity. The third event (1968–1988) was the shortest, yet it was also the most severe and extensive, affecting nearly up to 50% of trees and 70% of the study area. This most recent event was identified for the first time at the limit of the commercial forest illustrating a northward shift of the SBW distribution area during the 20th century. Overall, this research confirms that insect outbreaks are a complex and dynamic ecological phenomena, which makes the understanding of natural disturbance cycles at multiple scales a major priority especially in the context of future regional climate change.

Droughts drive outbreak dynamics of an invasive forest insect on an exotic host

Insect outbreaks are among the most important biotic disturbances in forest ecosystems and can exert immense economic and ecological impacts. Understanding the spatio-temporal patterns of eruptive insects can provide insights into the mechanisms driving their dynamics and help predict future responses under climate change. The aims of this study were to analyze the spatio-temporal patterns of outbreaks of the woodwasp Sirex noctilio –a major invasive pest of pines– in an invaded region of South America, to assess the relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent mechanisms on population dynamics, and to identify the primary factors that influence the magnitude of outbreaks. We used tree ring and insect sampling data of more than 1000 trees to reconstruct S. noctilio outbreaks in 29 pine stands across Patagonia-Argentina over a 16-year period. We found marked spatial synchrony in S. noctilio outbreaks at a regional scale. Rates of tree mortality from S. noctilio were influenced by both density-dependent and density-independent factors. The occurrence of S. noctilio outbreaks are triggered by an abrupt increase in drought, which likely increases the availability of susceptible host trees. The damage caused by the outbreaks is determined by stand level variables, closely related with tree stress. Rates of tree mortality decreased over time due to negative density-dependence in S. noctilio populations, likely due to the loss of suitable resources over time. Depicting mechanisms of large-scale tree mortality in ecosystems provides insights to the drivers of forest outbreaks and other factors such as responses to a changing climate.

Role of Modelling in International Crop Research: Overview and Some Case Studies

Crop modelling has the potential to contribute to global food and nutrition security. This paper briefly examines the history of crop modelling by international crop research centres of the CGIAR (formerly Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research but now known simply as CGIAR), whose primary focus is on less developed countries. Basic principles of crop modelling building up to a Genotype × Environment × Management × Socioeconomic (G × E × M × S) paradigm, are explained. Modelling has contributed to better understanding of crop performance and yield gaps, better prediction of pest and insect outbreaks, and improving the efficiency of crop management including irrigation systems and optimization of planting dates. New developments include, for example, use of remote sensed data and mobile phone technology linked to crop management decision support models, data sharing in the new era of big data, and the use of genomic selection and crop simulation models linked to environmental data to help make crop breeding decisions. Socio-economic applications include foresight analysis of agricultural systems under global change scenarios, and the consequences of potential food system shocks are also described. These approaches are discussed in this paper which also calls for closer collaboration among disciplines in order to better serve the crop research and development communities by providing model based recommendations ranging from policy development at the level of governmental agencies to direct crop management support for resource poor farmers.