Input-output Multipliers Research Articles

Some reflections on input-output multipliers

It is possible to identify some important inconsistencies in the definition of the components of input-output multipliers derived in the conventional manner. This paper identifies these inconsistencies which occur in output, income and employment multipliers, with the result that valid comparison of direct and indirect effects between multipliers is not possible. A suggested re-definition of input-output multipliers, considered to be free of these inconsistencies, is provided and illustrated.

The Effect of Relative Coefficient Size on Input—Output Multipliers

This paper provides a measure of the effect of relative coefficient size on input–output multipliers. Fourteen input–output tables, including a national table and tables for state, metropolitan region, city, rural town, and large and small rural region economies are included in experiments which measure the effect on output, income, and employment multipliers of (1) removal with replacement and (2) cumulative removal without replacement of coefficients from the A matrix. The experimental results illustrate the dominant role of the larger coefficients in multiplier formation and enable the derivation of a multiplier accuracy-maximising approach to table preparation.

Measurement of growth equalized employment multiplier effects: An empirical example

This paper is an expository note in which it is demonstrated that conventional input-output multipliers based upon the Leontief matrix may provide misleading information concerning the relative importance of the processing sectors within a regional economy. An alternative technique is presented in which economic multipliers are based upon percentage changes in sales to final demand. Evidence that size variation among economic sectors prevents meaningful comparisons of multipliers is shown using the Colorado Input-Output Model. A comparison between several types of conventional employment multipliers and growth equalized multipliers is used to indicate the magnitude of the effects of non-equal sector size.

Some accounting procedures and their effects on input-output multipliers

This paper examines three accounting procedures in input-output analysis, namely the valuation of transactions (purchasers' v. producers' prices), the allocation of competitive imports (direct v. indirect allocation), and the treatment of intrasectoral transactions (gross v. net tables). Two tables, namely the Australian National tables, and the Central Queensland regional tables were modified to express common combinations of accounting procedures; output multipliers were obtained for each form of the tables and compared. The results show some substantial differences in both the magnitude and ranking of the multipliers from different forms of the tables.

The Stability of Regional Input—Output Multipliers

Changes in regional input—output structures are studied by analyzing the temporal stability of income and output multipliers derived from the Washington State input—output tables for 1963, 1967, and 1972. One conclusion is that for impact analysis, as it is most commonly practiced, the instability of multipliers over time appears to be a minor problem. This judgment is based upon a comparison of forecasting errors in impact studies due to temporal changes in multipliers with forecasting errors arising from other aspects of the impact estimating procedure. The implication is that regional analysts should reassess the commonly felt need to update tables on a regular basis.

A Short-Cut to Estimates of Regional Input-Output Multipliers: Methodology and Evaluation

A Short-Cut to Estimates of Regional Input-Output Multipliers: Methodology and Evaluation

Economic base and input-output multipliers a comparison for Vancouver, B. C.

Employment multipliers for the metropolitan economy of Vancouver are derived from both economic base and input-out-put models of the region. The principal shortcomings of the location quotient approach in delineating the economic base of a region are reviewed, and empirical estimates are made of the understatement of exports resulting from this approach in light of survey data. The survey data and the author's judgment are then employed to yield a base employment multiplier of 1.99 for the region. Sectoral input-output employment multipliers are presented and conditions are derived under which an aggregated I-O multiplier is equal to the multiplier associated with the economic base model.

On input-output multipliers with errors in input-output coefficients

On input-output multipliers with errors in input-output coefficients

Impact of the Space Shuttle Program on the National Economy

ABSTRACT An Input-Output model constructed ond operated at the University of Maryland was used by economists at North Americon Rockwell Corporation to measure and compare the economic impact of three lorge progroms of o notional scale. Compared were: (1) the Space Shuttle program; (2) a residential housing construction program; and (3) a progrom to increase personal consumption expenditures. For each program, the increase in production and employment in each sector of the economy and the effect upon the balance of trade were estimoted. This study is considered an excellent example of cooperation between academic and industrial economists in presenting relevant comparisons to aid the policy formulation ond decision making processes. The aggregate impact upon production and employment was quite similar for the three programs, but these impacts were distributed differently throughout the various sectors of the economy. Input-Output multipliers were found to be 2.1 for the Space Shuttle, 1.7 for housing construction, and 2.0for personal consumption. It was concluded that an aerospace program such as the Space Shuttle would be at least as good o stimulus to the economy as other types of programs.