Innovative Risk Research Articles

Navigating systemic risks: governance of and for systemic risks

Abstract Non-technical summary Systemic risks such as climate change and pandemics are complex and interconnected. Managing such risks requires effective organisational structures and processes. This publication presents conceptually robust, evidence-based approaches for assessing and managing systemic risks. Technical summary Systemic risks originate and evolve in the nexus of tightly coupled dynamic systems, which are a characteristic of modern societies in the Anthropocene. Systemic risk implies the breakdown of a system which provides essential functions to society. Connectivity between systems is a key enabler for systemic risk to manifest through cascading effects. Thus, systemic risks originate and evolve in the nexus of tightly coupled dynamic systems. Cascading effects and the convergence of systemic risks with conventional risks as well as other systemic risks challenge the established modes of risk governance that still rest to a large extent on differentiation and compartmentalisation. Thus, governance of systemic risks requires an integrative approach towards risk governance that combines interdisciplinary risk analysis with iterative, adaptive and inclusive governance procedures. By drawing on the case studies of the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change, this paper proposes an innovative risk governance framework for systemic risks based on the integration of systems analysis and a governance procedure with the salient features of reflection, iteration, inclusion, transparency and accountability. Social media summary Systemic risks highlight the interconnected nature of our contemporary societies which calls for tailored responses.

La gouvernance d’entreprise: Un déterminant du management du risque bancaire

The aim of our study is to propose ownership structure and board of directors as two innovative risk management criteria. Our mixed-method approach, combining a qualitative, exploratory study with 7 executives and a confirmatory quantitative study with 78 executives, aimed to assess the impact of these mechanisms on the risk of corporate failure. The results significantly demonstrate the influence of ownership structure and board of directors on default risk. Thus, examination of the interactions between the various players in the governance system reveals a relationship of support and complementarity rather than one of discipline. Our study confirms that the configuration of the ownership structure and the composition of the board of directors play a key role in preventing corporate credit risk. Thus, these results suggest that optimizing these mechanisms may not only reduce the risk of default, but also provide a perspective for a comprehensive and proactive approach to bank credit risk.

Formation of environmentally friendly production in conditions of sustainable development

The modern economy is developing in the context of globalization, this is what has a significant impact on the realization of the opportunities of the world economy and gives rise to economic, social and environmental problems. Greening today is becoming one of the main indicators of the country’s level of development. We analyzed the possibilities of greening production in conditions of sustainable growth. The development strategy of any state integrates all the main directions of development of the socio-economic system of society, forcing states to look for a unique path of development in the conditions of the formation of a single world space. We also looked at the innovative risks of greening the economy. The relevance of the article is due to the requirement to green the economies of the countries of the global economic community.

Research on Risk Prediction of New Energy Photovoltaic Power Projects Oriented to Extreme Weather Conditions

Abstract In light of the increasing frequency of extreme weather events—including persistent low temperatures, rain, snow, freezing conditions, and haze—globally, the vulnerability of photovoltaic (PV) power projects to severe weather has escalated. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of the current construction practices and associated risks of PV power projects. Subsequently, it introduces two innovative risk prediction models: the gray risk prediction model and the CEMD-LSTM risk prediction model, which is enhanced by an improved k-shape clustering algorithm. These models are specifically designed for assessing the risks of new energy PV power projects under extreme weather conditions. To validate the effectiveness of these models, simulation tests are conducted, offering insights into the risk dynamics of new energy PV power projects in adverse meteorological scenarios. The assessment results show that the absolute error of the prediction results of the gray prediction model is large. The absolute value of the absolute error reaches a maximum of 8.0×104 W. The fluctuation of the prediction value is huge, so it is not possible to accurately carry out the risk prediction. The values of MAPE and MSE of the CEMD-LSTM model are 3.26% and 0.21, respectively, and the rate of identification of the risk level of the CEMD-LSTM model is 98.25%, which is higher than 93.48% of the LSTM model. The CEMDLSTM model is capable of predicting the risk of PV power projects with accuracy, and the recognition accuracy of the risk level is superior to that of the LSTM model. This study provides lessons and references for risk prediction of PV power projects in extreme weather conditions.

Innovative Risk Management: Identification, Assessment and Management of Risks in the Context of Innovative Project Management

"The article aims to solve the critical problem of risk management in the context of innovative projects, which affects the competitiveness and sustainability of organizations in the modern business environment. The purpose of the article is to highlight and develop an innovative approach to risk management in innovative projects to improve their success. The article examines the theoretical foundations of risk management in the context of innovative projects, including concepts, principles, and methods of risk management. The article identifies and analyzes the key risks that arise in the process of implementing innovative projects, including technological, financial, market and organizational risks. The article proposes the development of risk assessment methods and tools in the context of innovative projects, which may include the use of analytical methods, models, and approaches to assess the probability of risk occurrence and their potential impact on projects. The article offers effective methods of risk management in innovative projects the development of proactive measures to prevent risks, the determination of control points, the implementation of backup plans, and the development of a risk monitoring and control system. The article provides practical recommendations and examples of implementing innovative risk management in the real field of innovative project management. The authors examine various aspects of risk management and offer practical recommendations for managing them effectively. The results of the study will contribute to the improvement of risk management practices in organizations engaged in innovative activities and contribute to ensuring sustainable development and competitiveness."

Research on Influencing Factors and Countermeasures of Risk Control of State-Owned Enterprises under the Background of Big Data

This study explores the risk control and response strategies of state-owned enterprises in the context of big data. Global economic uncertainty poses new challenges to state-owned enterprises, necessitating innovative risk management approaches. This article proposes response strategies from four key aspects: establishing a proactive risk management culture, building a foundation in technology and data, conducting big data-driven risk analysis, and implementing predictive analysis and real-time monitoring. State-owned enterprises can foster a proactive risk management culture by cultivating employee risk awareness, demonstrating leadership, and establishing transparency and open communication. Additionally, data integration and analysis, leveraging the latest technology, are crucial factors that can help companies better identify risks and opportunities.

The categorizations of vasculogenic mimicry in clear cell renal cell carcinoma unveil inherent connections with clinical and immune features.

Background: Clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) stands as the prevailing variant kidney cancer in humans. Unfortunately, patients with disseminated RCC at diagnosis often have a diminished prognosis. Rapid tumor growth necessitates efficient blood supply for oxygen and nutrients, involving the circulation of blood from vessels to tumor tissues, facilitating tumor cell entry into the extracellular matrix. Vasculogenic mimicry (VM) significantly contributes to tumor growth and metastasis. Within this investigation, we identified vasculogenic mimicry-related genes (VMRGs) by analyzing data from 607 cases of kidney renal clear cell carcinoma (KIRC) in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/geo/). These findings offer insights into ccRCC progression and metastasis. Method: We identified VMRGs-related subtypes using consistent clustering methods. The signature of the VMRGs was created using univariate Cox regression and LASSO Cox regression analyses. To evaluate differences in immune cell infiltration, we employed ssGSEA. Afterwards, we created an innovative risk assessment model, known as the VM index, along with a nomogram to forecast the prognosis of ccRCC. Additionally, we verified the expression of an important gene related to VM, peroxiredoxin 2 (PRDX2), in tissue samples. Furthermore, we assessed the sensitivity to drugs in various groups by utilizing the pRRophetic R package. Results: Significant predictors of survival rates in both high- and low-risk groups of KIRC patients were identified as VMRGs. The independent prognostic factors for RCC were confirmed by both univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, validating VMRG risk signatures. Differences were observed in drug sensitivity, immune checkpoint expression, and responses to immune therapy between patients classified into high- and low-VMRG-risk groups. Our nomograms consistently demonstrated precise predictive capabilities. Finally, we experimentally verified PRDX2 expression levels and their impact on prognosis. Conclusion: The signature predicts patient prognosis and therapy response, laying the groundwork for future clinical strategies in treating ccRCC patients.

Occupational risk assessment in AOPs labs and management system that comply with UN sustainable development goals

Accidents in chemical laboratories are usually less significant than in the chemical industry but, sometime, they have serious consequences. As mandated by legislation, risk assessment is also needed at laboratory. In the present work, risk analysis is applied to laboratory dedicated to wastewater treatment by Advanced Oxidation Processes (AOPs). The analysis was carried out according to widely accepted methodologies, although innovative aspects, such as a new occupational risk index or the specific application to AOP laboratories, are introduced. Based on the hazards detected, a risk level with a normalized score between 0 and 10 is established. Based on the suggested prevention measures, their cost and their execution time, an annual cost and its relation to the previously assigned score are calculated. This gives a new index (another novelty) for the prioritization of preventive measures. To be able to identify the accident causes, Root Cause Analysis techniques were also included in the risk assessment. AcciMap, Why technique as well as the Ishikawa diagram, that shows the relationship between risk factors and accidents or occupational diseases have been used. This innovative risk assessment has been also framed in the implementation of management system for occupational health and safety, according to ISO 45001:2018. The here proposed improvements in safety are also a way of achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

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The article is aimed at solving the important problem of risk management in the context of innovative projects, which affects the competitiveness and sustainability of organizations in the modern business environment. The purpose of the article is to highlight and develop an innovative approach to risk management in innovative projects to improve their success. The article examines the theoretical foundations of risk management in the context of innovative projects, including concepts, principles, and methods of risk management. The article identifies and analyzes the key risks that arise in the process of implementing innovative projects, including technological, financial, market and organizational risks. The article proposes the development of risk assessment methods and tools in the context of innovative projects, which may include the use of analytical methods, models, and approaches to assess the probability of risk occurrence and their potential impact on projects. The article offers effective methods of risk management in innovative projects the development of proactive measures to prevent risks, the determination of control points, the implementation of backup plans, and the development of a risk monitoring and control system. The article provides practical recommendations and examples of the implementation of innovative risk management in the real field of innovative project management. The authors examine various aspects of risk management and offer practical recommendations for managing them effectively. The results of the study will contribute to the improvement of risk management practices in organizations engaged in innovative activities and contribute to ensuring sustainable development and competitiveness.

Factors of reducing innovation risks in the agroindustrial complex

Factors of reducing innovation risks in the agroindustrial complex

Design and engineering of value-driven Smart PSS for manufacturing companies: Design risk anticipation with sPS2Risk Framework

Digital servitization has emerged over the last years, at the convergence between digital- and service-oriented business strategies, leading manufacturing companies to transform their business models through the adoption of so-called Smart PSS (Smart Product-Service-Systems). As a contribution to the relatively recent scientific literature on Smart PSS design, this paper presents a framework for the design and engineering of Smart PSS offers, based on a value-driven approach. The added-value of the framework is notably to integrate (i) a smart PSS prototyping approach associated with (ii) a risk management process, all along the design process. When a manufacturing company has to shift from a ‘product-centric’ to a ‘Smart PSS’ business model, sPS2Risk Framework helps decision-makers anticipating and mitigating key innovation risks. The paper presents the generic framework and its experimentation for an industrial case study, in the heating appliance sector.

The Influence of Risk Perception on Business Model Innovation

Entrepreneurship in Indonesia is believed to be poorly developed compared to other Asian countries. Many efforts have been done to foster the entrepreneurial spirit, particularly the ways to change the mindset of young people that when they graduate from universities, seeking for jobs is not the only option. They can also be entrepreneurs. The lack of students' interest in the business and entrepreneurship is influenced by the perception of risk in business model innovation. Risk perception is the evaluation of people's decision making that is associated with a particular scenario. This study aims to empirically examine the effect of risk perception on business model innovation and measure the influence level of risk perception on business model innovation. This analysis uses the independent variable; the perception of risk. The dependent variable is business model innovation.. The researchers set some criteria to choose some respondents such as the active status of students at Faculty of Entrepreneurship, Garut University. The reason for choosing the entrepreneurship students because they have learned more about entrepreneurial procedures so that they have a better understanding of risk perceptions of business model innovation. Researchers used a causal research design on 30 respondents. Data were collected by distributing online questionnaires via e-mail and analyzed using SPSS 25 software. The statistical method used simple linear regression analysis, with hypothesis testing the t-statistic test. The results of this study indicate that risk perception has a significantly positive effect on business model innovation. This research has an impact for business actors to continue to consider risk perceptions because it has an influence on business model innovation.

Building the Bioeconomy through Innovation, Monitoring and Science‐based Policies

SummaryConcerns about climate change, food security and biodiversity loss are challenging society and the scientific community to modify our modes of operation. This involves the transition from relying on non‐renewable resources to renewable resources, reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases, sequestering and storing carbon, and at the same time, improving the well‐being of much of humanity who live in poverty. Establishing a modern bioeconomy is essential for the transition. The BioMonitor Project highlights benefits of establishing a modern bioeconomy and the constraints slowing its development. We propose policies to overcome these constraints, emphasising the importance of monitoring its progress. We present some of its findings and recommendations to improve the performance of the EU bioeconomy. This includes a science‐based regulatory process to balance risk and benefit of new innovations, combined with effective liability rules and sound assessment of the side effects of new regulations without unnecessary delay and extra regulatory costs. Government support is crucial for agricultural and industrial research and development leading to the emergence of new supply chains. Since developing bioeconomy industries that increase productivity and reduce externalities provide public goods, some government support for infant bioeconomy sectors may be justified.

Sustaining business as usual or enabling transformation? A discourse analysis of climate change mitigation policy in Swedish municipalities

AbstractThis article explores how discourses may influence the potential for success in mitigating climate change in Swedish municipalities. We identify dominant discourses in climate change mitigation policy in three Swedish municipalities using argumentative discourse analysis, based on policy documents and interviews as empirical material. Political leadership and adequate organizational preconditions are necessary for working with climate change mitigation in municipalities, but the role of discourse is also significant. Policy discourse constructs preconditions for certain scenarios while rendering others less likely. Previous studies have shown that the ecological modernization (EM) discourse tends to be dominant, something which this study confirms and investigates further. We find that the dominant discourse is strong EM, which largely considers it possible to decouple economic growth and environmental problems through renewable energy and technology. A focus on collaboration between stakeholders is central and a global climate justice perspective is present to some extent. Potential solutions that are not related to the market or technological innovation risk being rendered invisible when this discourse is dominant, but the inclusion of a diversity of actors and an increased focus on climate justice could potentially minimize this risk. Finally, emerging discourses around transformation and circular economy have potential to enable the forging of new paths. This depends, however, on how these concepts are framed and how they are used.

Should Companies Take the Risks of Investing in New Product Development: A Case Study of Coca-Cola C2

The enormous changes in the corporate environment over the previous few decades have kept an emphasis on new product development (NPD) alive. Companies currently are exposed to multiple risks in product innovation that lead to low willingness in NPD investment, whereas existing research has neglected how to conduct risk management regarding new product development. Therefore, this paper will examine whether it is desirable for businesses to take the risk of investing in the creation of new goods, focusing on these risks using a case study approach and developing risk management solutions. Analysis of the risks and benefits of product development leads to the conclusion that the company should try to develop new products based on the case analysis of Coca-Cola C2. On the basis of the risks of product innovation, this paper aims to propose some risk management strategies to encourage companies to assess the risks of developing products from all aspects and thereby conduct NPD procedures.

Innovative methods of evaluating the counterparty during the organization internal control

The article discusses the key issues of internal control measures when choosing a counterparty during the formation of an innovative economy. The purpose of the study is to develop indicators characterizing the counterparty, as well as an innovative risk matrix used when choosing a counterparty and allowing to identify risks and visually represent the characteristics of the counterparty. To achieve this goal of the article, the following tasks were solved: indicators of economic stability and information support used when choosing a counterparty were proposed; An innovative risk matrix and risk assessment criteria have been developed that allow the organization to objectively assess the counterparty and conclude contracts on the principles of economic validity, reliability and integrity, significantly reducing economic risks. As a result of the conducted research, innovative methods of assessing the counterparty are proposed, which provide an opportunity to obtain its objective characteristics before concluding a business agreement, as well as to rank tax risks. The article uses the methods of a systematic approach, analysis and synthesis, as well as the method of expert assessments.

Research on Innovative Activities for Regional Development: Analysis of the Origin of the Kursk Region

Relevance. The article is devoted to the study of the impact of innovation activity on the socio-economic development of the regions of Russia and the Kursk region, in particular. The innovative potential of the region is analyzed, the results of innovative activity in previous periods are evaluated and the ways of possible development are considered.The purpose is to determine the impact of innovation activity on the socio–economic development of the Kursk region, highlighting significant challenges, prospects and risks.Objectives: to evaluate the results of innovation activity retrospectively and predict opportunities for future development; to consider the impact of innovation activity on employment and incomes of the population; to identify challenges and problems of innovation development in the Kursk region, identify risks; to propose ways of further innovative development of the Kursk region with an assessment of the role of state support.Methodology. Methods of analysis of statistical data on the development of innovation activity in the Kursk region and other regions of Russia, obtained from open sources devoted to the problems of the development of innovation activity in the regions; monitoring and evaluation methods, including the analysis of data on employment and income of the population.Results. The challenges and problems arising in the process of development of innovation activity in the region are highlighted, the prospects for the development of innovation activity in the Kursk region are analyzed. Comparative information of methods of research of the level of innovation activity is presented. A comparative analysis of the innovative potential of the Kursk region with other regions of Russia was carried out. The data on the regulatory framework of innovation activity in the Kursk region are presented.Conclusions. In recent years, there has been an increase in innovation activity in the Kursk region. However, it is necessary to continue work on creating an innovative infrastructure, attracting qualified personnel, and improving the quality of state support. Innovative activity has a significant impact on employment and incomes of the population, as well as on the social sphere of the region. It is necessary to take into account the risks of innovation, such as potential negative impacts on the environment and public health.

Innovation Under Ambiguity and Risk

Abstract We view innovation investments as real options and explore the implications of risk (volatility) as well as a newly defined outcome independent measure of ambiguity (Knightian uncertainty) for innovation decisions. The empirical analysis uses stock returns to compute an implementable measure of ambiguity. We also control for risk and other determinants of innovation. We find a consistently significant negative effect of ambiguity on R&D, patents, and citations, as predicted. The effect of risk on R&D is positive and significant, but the corresponding effect on patents and citations is negative and significant. Ambiguity matters more for high-tech firms, consistent with intuition.

ABOUT NECESSITY OF ACCOUNTING OF INNOVATION RISKS IN MANAGEMENT PROCESSES

The article examines the impact of risks, especially innovation risks, on the effectiveness of innovative activities of entities. The reasons for the emergence of innovative risks and their dependence on various factors were also considered, and the expediency of taking measures aimed at identifying and gradually reducing the risks of an innovative project was noted. Attention was also drawn to the need to apply a new synergistic approach based on "risk management" to identify and manage the level of innovation risks in the face of uncer-tainty. Keywords: innovations, innovation economy, risks, uncertainty, risk’s theory, risk manage- ment.

Green innovation decision and coordination of supply chain under corporate social responsibility and risk preferences

Consumers' green awareness can induce enterprises to pay attention to corporate social responsibility (CSR), but the risk aversion preference of enterprises often makes them cautious about investment in new fields. The joint effect of CSR and manufacturer's risk preferences in green innovation investment on supply chain decision-making is worth exploring. This paper studies the green innovation decisions of supply chain enterprises when different entities undertake CSR under the random demand for green products, and the joint impact of manufacturer's risk preference and CSR on corporate decision-making and utility. Given the inefficiency of decentralized models with risk aversion, a side-payment self-enforcing contract is designed to reduce the green innovation risk of risk-averse manufacturer. The following conclusions are drawn: (i) A higher CSR ratio promotes lower prices, higher green innovation level and supply chain utility. And, manufacturer’s strong risk aversion inhibits green innovation level and manufacturer’s utility. (ii) Green innovation level and corporate utility are highest when the manufacturer and retailer share CSR. When only one company undertakes CSR, the CSR ratio plays a critical role in decision-making. (iii) After coordination, the utilities of both risk-averse manufacturer and retailer are improved, achieving a win–win situation. And green innovation level reaches the equilibrium in the centralized scenario, which is of great benefit to supply chain enterprises and the environment.