Innovative Risk Research Articles

Innovation risk management based on simulation modeling

Innovation risk management based on simulation modeling

Research on Path Dependence of Industrial Clusters: Taking Xuchang Tobacco Industrial Cluster as an Example

As the major carriers for the development of the regional economy and small-and-medium-sized enterprises, industry clusters are faced with challenges of sustainable development in the process of China's industrial upgrading and transformation. This study takes the development history of China's Xuchang tobacco industry cluster as the background, extracts some key concepts from Path-Dependence Theory and then constructs the relational model of path dependence elements, hoping to find out the formation mechanism of path dependence. The study shows that, firstly, learning costs, transaction costs, transformation costs and innovation risks determine what decisions to be taken for those enterprises in the clusters, and they are also the internal economic factors for formation of path-dependence. Secondly, the competence of an enterprise is the main reason accounting for the path dependence of the cluster. Lastly, habit seem to be the social cause and the highlight of the path dependence. Moreover, those path dependence elements are interactive and reciprocally enhanced.

A Conceptual Innovative Risk Management Model for Commercial Buildings Refurbishment Projects

In construction industry, refurbishment is an alternativewayto upgrade the lifespan of the existing infrastructure. The refurbishment approach has been widely used even though it seems riskier, complex, and more difficult than constructing new projects. Despite several risk-management tools are available, a high level of uncertainties, risks and requirements of refurbishment for commercial projects have not been reduced and it becomes more challenging. There is a relatively low implementation of formal risk-management methods in practice and in fact, there have been limited studies focusing on this issue, particularly in Malaysia context. This study aims to promote a comprehensive tool to managing risks of refurbishment projects, particularly for commercial buildings in developing country including Malaysia. A critical review of the existing studies in regard to risks management from different perspectives was used to develop a conceptual framework. A qualitative method of face-to-face interviews was used in the study. Content analysis showed that the proposed tool would be beneficial and pave a way to developers as risk management can influence their decision-making process.This paper will be useful for developers in making decisions before undertaking refurbishment projects. In fact, the proposed risk-management model would be potentially providing a pave in motivating clients, consultants, and other participants to enhance their service and product quality in refurbishment project for commercial buildings.

Research on the Prewarning Model of Relationship Risk Levels in Industry Collaborative Innovation Alliances across Provinces in China

The governments need beforehand to perceive the innovative relationship risk because they are one of the innovation subjects in those industry collaborative innovation alliances. However, it is difficult for innovation subjects to quantify the risks for industry collaborative innovation alliances due to the complexity, nonlinear, and dynamic condition. This paper firstly constructs an ordered logistic model, uses the following as independent variables: the collaborative degree, the ratio of science technology expenditure to GDP, the ratio of education expenditure to GDP, the ratio of finances to GDP, and uses the levels of risk as the dependent variable. Then, this paper uses the panel data of 30 provinces in China (Hainan is not included) from 2010 to 2018 to fit the model. Based on the fitting results, the research has gained the relationship risk prewarning model in industry collaborative innovation alliances by using the collaborative degree as an independent variable. The governments at all levels can use this relationship risk prewarning model to percept risk levels and reckon the corresponding probability which exists in industry collaborative innovation alliances. Furthermore, there are regional influences existing in the prewarning relationship risk levels in industry collaborative alliances. The east and middle areas have significant regional influence, but it does not exist among west areas and others. The governments at all levels may consider the regional differences.

Developing Mechanisms of Reducing Risks in Managing Innovation Projects and Programs in Russian On-Line Retail Organizations

Currently, the market is crowded with commercial enterprises, which makes it necessary to maintain the competitiveness of modern companies. One of the effective ways to support its functioning in the market and successful further development is the development and implementation of innovative projects. At the same time, when managing innovative projects, developers face various risks that should be minimized in a timely manner. Risk reduction is a rather complex process, as there is a high level of uncertainty inherent in innovative projects. Therefore, in order to minimize the risks of innovative projects, it is important to choose the best quality methods and tools that will form an effective risk reduction mechanism as a result. This article presents the concepts of innovation project, risk management and risk reduction mechanism. Methods and tools for reducing the risks of innovative projects are considered, the main types of risk minimization mechanisms are identified. In addition, the author conducted an analysis of innovative projects of the Russian retail chains "Magnit" and "X5 Retail Group", identified the main mechanisms for reducing the risks of innovative projects and programs used in these retail chains.

Современные подходы к управлению рисками инновационных проектов сетевых организаций розничной торговли в условиях пандемии

The relevance of the research is due to the fact that in the conditions of the pandemic the priority for the retailers is to do business through the innovative projects implementation. These processes are associated with the various risks when it is required to choose a competent approach to their management. There are many different modern approaches, but it is necessary to choose the most effective one, which will not entail serious losses. In the article the concepts of an innovative project and risk management are discussed, the modern approaches to risk management are explored and their classification is considered. It has been carried out the analysis of the developed and implemented innovative projects by the largest Russian retailer X5 Retail Group in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Statistical data on the implementation of innovative projects are presented, problems in the risk management of innovative projects are identified and recommendations for solving these problems are proposed.

Avoiding Burnout at the Digital Forensics Coalface: Targeted strategies for forensic agencies in the management of job-related stress

Recent evidence shows digital forensics experts are at risk of burnout and job-related stress. This may be related to the increase in digital evidence and/or repetitive exposure to challenging material, either face to face or via digital imagery in real time or post-event. This exposure includes footage and/or sound recording of extreme violence, child exploitation, suicide, and death scenes. This increase in the risk of stress also aligns with the changing nature of policing with rates of serious crime, especially robbery and homicide decreasing, while digital crime in many countries increases. This increase changes workload demands and requires new skillsets in addition to traditional investigation methods. Workplace stress has high financial and personal costs, impacting organisations, teams, family, friends, and the individual. For organisations and teams, occupational stress is associated with increases in workplace accidents, absenteeism, early retirement, higher intention to quit, lower motivation and disillusionment with work, all of which impacts the cohesion of forensic teams. The aim of this paper is to present a set of key evidence-based, targeted strategies that forensic science and policing agencies can roll-out in order to manage workplace stress, thereby managing the risk of higher turnover, absenteeism and lower workplace innovation.

Modern factors and classification of enterprise’s innovative risks

Introduction. Today enterprises have a problem in minimizing the risk to increase the efficiency of the result, which is actualized by the general specifics of innovative activity. It makes extremely necessary to study the risks that significantly affect the innovative activity. Despite all the study of problems in the field of innovative risk management, some of the issues remain insufficiently covered. In particular, it is about modern factors and the availability of well-developed classification of innovative risks, which creates an opportunity for effective using the appropriate risk management tools, because each type of risk has its own management system. The purpose of the paper is to highlight the factors that affect the innovative risks of the enterprise and to propose a system of these risks according to certain classification signs. Results. The concept of innovative risk of the enterprise is considered. The factors of emergence of necessity of innovative changes in activity of the enterprises and the factors influencing innovative risks are highlighted. The conditions for the formation of risks of innovative activity are indicated. Some modern approaches to the classification of innovative risks of the enterprise and the need for its development are shown. The system of innovative risks of the enterprise according to certain classification signs is offered. Conclusion. The presented classification set of innovative risks makes it possible to state that all the signs are either tied to the direction of innovative activity of the enterprise, or are temporary. However, they are not entirely focused on those factors, levers and sources that specifically lead to the emergence of innovative risk, that is, we are talking about the causal orientation of risk formation: risks are usually classified according to the results of manifestation in practice. For timely identification of risk and its localization, it is not always enough to know the time parameters and general characteristics – you need to take into account the specifics of the influence. Effective risk management requires a well-developed, modern classification of innovative risks, which allows for the effective use of appropriate risk management tools, because each type of risk has its own management system. The mechanism of this system, which includes the implementation of appropriate systematic actions, should be aimed at both preventing and responding to risk events.

Adapting to Environmental Changes: the Risks of Social and Technological Innovations

The initial methodological position mentioned in the article is the following statement: changes at any level contain a potential threat of damage — that is, a risk — and require developing a strategy for taking on these risks. The article expands on why scientific research is relevant, and speaks of how important it is for management practices to accumulate and generalize sociological knowledge about the social and personal determinants affecting how the population chooses its adaptation strategies in response to such changes in the institutional environment that violate their traditional way of life. The study object is the population, the subject — the main determinants that define how one adapts to the risks of environmental innovations. Adaptation in the context of this article is interpreted by the author as the process of choosing and implementing a decision pertaining to the types of actions that ensure the subject’s minimal vulnerability when dealing with the risks of a changing living environment. In order to identify the factors that influence choice of strategy for adapting to such environmental changes that may cause damage to a human being’s health and lifestyle, the projective situation method was used. Data from the 27th wave of RLMS–HSE was used as the empirical data base. The author correlates the interpretation of empirical data with the resource approach, specifically with the idea of “total life resource” (N.F. Naumova). The goal is to identify the relationship between choosing a particular strategy for adapting to the risks of environmental innovations and individual elements and indicators of total life resource. Our analysis allowed for us to propose an expanded typology of strategies for forced adaptation to the risks of environmental changes, as well as to identify a number of factors that determine the choice. Overall it can be argued that such a type of resource as one’s natural abilities seems to contribute to differentiation in the most significant way. If we look into individual factors, the following contribute to strategy differentiation: age, presence of and desire to achieve life goals, ability to adapt, emotional and psychological status, preferred method for solving problems, health, life satisfaction, gender, level of education, social status.

RISKS OF INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTAINING A SUFFICIENT LEVEL OF ECONOMIC SECURITY

This article considers the issues of innovative activity, which is the engine of progress and constant improvement of competitive advantages and the impact of the risk degree in such activity and economic security. Therefore, the study of the risks of innovative development and maintaining a sufficient level of economic security of both business structures and state and regional administration do not lose their relevance, but on the contrary increase their expediency in view of the turbulence of the operating conditions in the country and the international environment. The purpose of this research is to study the risks of innovative development affecting the maintenance of a sufficient level of economic security. The essence of economic security, innovative activity and the concept of «risk» were considered. Attention is paid to two groups of threats that may arise in the framework of innovative activities. The sources of innovative risks and threats to economic security at the state level was studied, in particular, it was outlined that such threats remain the instability of the environment, the imperfection of normative and legal legislation, the growth of economic crime, the low professional competence of management personnel of regional governing bodies, etc. Such types of investment activities as managerial, financial, production, marketing, market, personnel, economic and contractual, intellectual property risks, risks of loss of investors, information and environmental risks are highlighted. It was established that the process of managing innovative risks should include the following stages: to carry out an assessment of possible risks; to make a decision to carry out innovative activities or to abandon such decisions and consider other projects; to decide on the expediency of full or partial transfer of risk to other entities. The essence of ambitious and non-ambitious risk avoidance measures in innovative activities is considered. In order to minimize investment decisions, it is recommended to approach the collection and processing of information carefully, to develop methodological approaches to solving risky situations, to increase the ability to manage investment risks and to promote the development of professional qualifications of employees. Prospects for further research are the modeling of situations during the implementation of innovative projects and the development of response mechanisms for each threatening situation. Keywords: risks, innovative activity, economic security, economic development, management, financial stability, project activity.

New Thresholds for AFP and Des-γ-Carboxy Prothrombin in Chronic Liver Disease Depending on the Use of Nucleoside Analogs and an Integrated Nomogram.

BackgroundThe thresholds of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin (PIVKA-II) when detecting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with antiviral nucleoside analog (NA) remain controversial. A relevant integrated nomogram needs to be developed.MethodsWe enrolled a consecutive series of 5666 cases diagnosed with CHB either with or without antiviral agents and randomly allocated them to the training set (n=3966, 70.00%) and the validation set (n=1700, 30.00%).ResultsIn the training set, the levels of AFP and PIVKA-II of NA-treated patients were significantly lower than those of untreated patients. The most appropriate cut-off values of AFP and PIVKA-II were 151.40 ng/mL (a sensitivity of 39.77% and a specificity of 92.17%) and 35.50 mAU/mL (a sensitivity of 84.85% and a specificity of 69.43%) for NA-treated patients. As for BCLC-0/A HCC, the most appropriate cut-off values of AFP and PIVKA-II were 151.40 ng/mL and 32.50 mAU/mL for NA-treated patients, respectively. A logistic regression model composed of AFP, PIVKA-II and other clinical parameters to predict the risk of HBV-related HCC for NA-treated patients was established and verified to have an AUROC of 0.868 (95% CI, 0.827–0.909) for all-stage HCC and an AUROC of 0.856 (95% CI, 0.809–0.903) for BCLC-0/A HCC.ConclusionThe new detection thresholds of AFP and PIVKA-II might lead to the ability to perform early detection for hepatoma in NA-treated patients and the innovative risk prediction model is a valuable tool for identifying high-risk CHB patients.

The Influence of Enterprise Design Risk Attitude on the Choice of Heterogeneous Open Innovation Alliance

The choice of open innovation alliance has a significant impact on avoiding potential design risk. In order to reduce the enterprise design risk, an evaluation index system of innovation capability, including design risk, is constructed by considering the aspects of design risk identification, risk response, and risk monitoring. Then, a design risk evaluation method based on the prospect theory and fuzzy TOPSIS method is proposed. Combined with the prospect theory, the influences of three different risk attitudes (risk-taking, intermediate, and conservative) on design decisions are analyzed. Finally, the evaluation system and method are applied to the design evaluation of digital welding power source, and its feasibility is verified by a numerical example. The results show that the conservative risk attitude is consistent with the closeness evaluation results, and the intermediate risk attitude is consistent with the risk-taking attitude evaluation results. Introducing the psychological risk factors of the subject into the design decision-making behavior can help enterprises to choose the innovation alliance, which is more in line with the actual needs and reduces the innovation risk to the greatest extent. The index system and evaluation method established in this paper can provide theoretical reference for enterprise design risk analysis.

Digital Innovation Risk Management Model of Discrete Manufacturing Enterprise Based on Big Data Analysis

At present, most risk management work mainly relies on manpower, and manpower relies on the professional knowledge of relevant skilled workers to discover hidden safety risks in production activities. This article combines relevant big data theories and 4V characteristics to analyze and investigate safety production and big data, study data structure, data source and data type. Using 5W1H scientific big data and applications, this analysis method analyzes the theoretical basis, applications and beneficiaries of big data related to safety production, some of which are application links and important theoretical issues. Secondly, it studies the security risk management model based on big data, proposes a risk management model based on big data, the technical basis of big data and the idea of a three-dimensional model, and applies the systematic space method, which is reflected in three aspects of risk management. In the end, a risk identification model based on big data, a risk assessment classification model, and a risk early warning and pre-control model are defined.

Innovative Risk Early Warning Model under Data Mining Approach in Risk Assessment of Internet Credit Finance

Innovative Risk Early Warning Model under Data Mining Approach in Risk Assessment of Internet Credit Finance

Board Gender Diversity and its Impact on Firm Innovation Strategies

We examine the effect of board gender diversity on innovation outcomes. Using upper-echelons and construal level theory, we argue that female representation on corporate boards increases the diversity of information sets, influences how information is processed, generates within-person changes in board member construal, and thereby affects the board’s decisions related to innovation strategies. Consequently, board gender diversity is not only likely to affect the quantum of innovations, but also the impact of innovations, and a greater tendency to aim for moon shots – that is high risk, high value innovations. Using 20 years of panel data and instrumental variable (IV) regressions, we find that board gender diversity is positively associated with the quantum, impact, and risk of innovations. We explore the path through which board gender diversity influences innovation outcomes. Results indicate that existence of female innovators is an important mediator of the positive relation between board gender diversity and innovation outcomes. Further, the information brought by women directors from their membership in other corporate boards significantly influences innovation. Innovation outcomes positively influence firm financial performance in subsequent periods. We conclude that board gender diversity is a crucial driver of innovation strategy.

Use Your Broken Part into My Art? Industry Peers’ Failures in Competitive Markets and Firm Innovatio

In competitive settings, the ability to attend to failures in the environment can help firms identify market opportunities or threats without the drawbacks of in-house experimentation, particularly under conditions of uncertainty. In this paper, we build theory about how firms make inferences based on their industry peers’ failures and how such inferences may affect firms’ innovative output. While existing studies primarily focus on failures as a foundation for experiential learning, especially as it pertains to strategic behavior such as mergers and acquisitions or R&D, how managers interpret failures happening outside the firm has received comparatively less attention. We contribute to this area of research by examining the effect on a firm’s innovative output not only of failures by other firms, but also of their geographical location and underlying cause. In particular, we hypothesize that firms are more likely to pursue product innovations when others’ failures are more geographically dispersed, yet refrain from doing so when they are causally complex. Firms’ own production experience may also strengthen firms’ perceived risk in innovation when failures in the environment are causally complex. Building on firm-level data on product recalls and new product introductions in the medical device industry from 2003 through 2017, we find support for our arguments.

The hidden risks of incumbent open innovation: A reappraisal of the US national innovation ecosystem

Innovation scholars over the years have highlighted several benefits of using a more Open Innovation (OI) approach to commercialize industrial R&D. In this study, however, we ask if there are any systemic risks incurred when incumbent R&D organizations use OI without considering its long-run societal and economic implications? Our answer is yes. Specifically, we assert that OI practices have a strong potential to jeopardize sustainable technical change at the level of the national innovation system in the imminent future. We use a historical case study of the US ecosystem to highlight three types of social costs incurred on the national innovation system through incumbent OI, and three key social benefits the entrepreneurial network state exerts over the ecosystem that are equally important for OI. We document how the most recent wave of industrial R&D also corresponds with a techno-economic paradigm that increases the rate of invention but skews the direction of innovation towards short-term profits. As such, a key insight of this study is that unless technology managers embrace a more long-term stakeholder orientation, OI will continue to lead to externalizing the riskiest aspects of R&D to the taxpayers, while privatizing the rewards for industrial R&D executives and shareholders at the expense of what is best for society. A number of implications follow for public policy to create a more stakeholder friendly national innovation system.

A multi-vector model for understanding the risks of innovation: synthesis of psychology, economics and technology

The article is theoretical in nature and represents a methodological analysis of risks and their role in innovation. The article highlights and analyses different approaches to the study of risks – economic, technological, political, social, institutional, socio-psychological and philosophical-psychological. On the basis of the listed approaches, the authors have proposed a multi-vector model for analysing the risks of innovation, which includes three vectors – economic and technological, socio-environmental and psychological. The advantages and directions for improving the proposed model are also disclosed. It is assumed that the model will be in demand for training the specialists in entrepreneurship and innovation, in assessing the risks of innovation and as a basis for further research in multidimensional risks of innovation and the role of the human factor in such risks.

РИСКИ НА ЗЕРНОВОМ РЫНКЕ СИБИРСКОГО ФЕДЕРАЛЬНОГО ОКРУГА: ПРИЧИНЫ ВОЗНИКНОВЕНИЯ, ИНСТРУМЕНТЫ И МЕТОДЫ УПРАВЛЕНИЯ

The article presents the factors that negatively affect the development of grain production and the grain market of the Siberian Federal District (SFD). The key types of risks that have a negative impact on the development of the grain market of the SFD are presented: production, market and social. The reasons for the emergence of agroecological, technological, innovative, macroeconomic, foreign trade, commercial and social risks in the grain market of the Siberian Federal District are determined. Macroeconomic risks are represented by external and internal risks. Effective tools and methods for risk management in the grain market of the Siberian Federal District are proposed. The applied tariff barriers (the average bound tariff) and their size, which are applied by the main grain importing countries of the SFD for the commodity group «Cereals», are determined. The countries-importers of grain of the SFD applying non-tariff barriers to the commodity group «Cereals» are presented. The forecast of grain production in the SFD until 2025 is given. The article draws conclusions and presents the volume of grain export from the SFD, which will be achieved as a result of the application of the proposed tools aimed at minimizing the negative impact of risks on the grain market and the development of transport and logistics infrastructure.

Environmental risks of innovations in the management of motor transport systems

In modern conditions, when the negative impact on the components of the environ-ment is constantly increasing, and global environmental problems are becoming more and more urgent, the issues of attracting environmental investments in energy and resource-intensive sectors of the economy are becoming more and more urgent. Among all the sources of destructive influence, one of the least studied are motor transport systems, which are a combination of highway and flow of motorvehicles that move along it. In the current conditions of the modern development of the state road network and the implementation of the "Big Construction" program, the problem of assessing the environmental risks of innovations in the management of motor transport systems becomes especially relevant and requires a solution in the context of ensuring the state's environmental safety. Goal. The goal of the work is to develop approaches to assessing the envi-ronmental risks of innovations in the management of motor transport systems to ensure an appropriate level of the state environmental safety. Methodology. The analytical methods to develop an organizational and economic mechanism for managing environmental risks of innovation in the functioning of the state's motor transport systems were used in the work. Re-sults. The main environmental problems of the functioning of motor transport systems are analyzed and priority ones are highlighted. The general foundations of environmental risk management of innovative activity are analyzed. The efficiency of the state motor transport systems management system is estimated. Measures to determine the environmental risks of innovation have been developed. The organizational and economic mechanism for managing the environmental risks of innovation in the functioning of the transport systems of Ukraine were proposed. Originality. The system of environmental risk man-agement of innovation has been further developed in the context of the eco-innovation process of develop-ment of motor transport systems, which will increase the level of environmental safety of the state. Practical value. The use of the proposed general organizational and economic mechanism for managing the environmental risks of innovation in the functioning of the state's motor transport systems will increase the efficiency of this process. The obtained result is the basis for the development and implementation of effective mechanisms for the ecoinvestment in the development of motor transport systems. In the long term, this will help to improve the state's ecoinvestment climate and indirectly increase the level of environmental safety.