he paper explores the impact of terms of trade on the industrialization and economic growth in Ukraine due to significant vulnerability of national economy to foreign economic shocks, its openness and mainly commodity structure of exports. In this research we have chosen manufacturing value added as percent in GDP to identify periods of industrialization, as its growth corresponds to periods of accelerated industrial development and vice versa. Also we considered GDP per capita as indicator of national economy’s performance. The changes in terms of trade were investigated based on the analysis of terms of trade adjustments, which are determined by the ability to import goods and services minus exports at constant prices. As an empirical research tool vector autoregressive models have been chosen to explore the relationship between endogenous and exogenous variables in dynamics. Thus, the endogenous variables in the model are the annual growth rate of GDP per capita, manufacturing value added and terms of trade adjustments in 1991-2018. Therefore, the first-order vector autoregression model was constructed to examine this relationship. According to the results of research, acceleration of terms of trade adjustments growth rate (deterioration of terms of trade) in Ukraine leads to fluctuations in the manufacturing value added growth with an increase of almost 3% in the second period and further declining. It indicates an increase in industrial production in response to the deterioration of terms of trade in the short run and possible intensification of innovative economic growth triggers. Fluctuations in manufacturing value added account for from almost 7% to 14% in fluctuations of GDP per capita growth. In turn, fluctuations in terms of trade adjustments account for only from 3% to almost 5%. At the same time, fluctuations in manufacturing value added from 8% to 13% are explained by fluctuations in terms of trade adjustments.
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