Initial Expansion Stage Research Articles

Risk estimation and stochastic control of innovation processes

Abstract The innovation introduction, no matter whether a product, technology, a method, etc., is being implemented, is connected with considerable risk of investments loss and highly stochastic behaviour, depending on unpredictable factors. It is acknowledged that the innovation passes at least through 6 general stages: 1 - Prestart stage; 2 - Start stage; 3 - Initial expansion stage; 4 - Quick expansion stage; 5 - Stage of reaching liquidity of venture investments; 6 - Stage of project failure and its cancelling. Each state may be refined in details. It is important for the Decision Maker (DM) on one hand to be able to estimate the risk of transitions from a state to state and the probability also for profitable outcome of the initiative - for this purpose a network flow model is proposed; and on the other hand - it is useful if the DM may apply different actions at each stage so that to minimize the losses and maximize the final profit - for this purpose a Markov Decision Process is proposed, which is very closely related to the network flow model and both may be united in a Markov flow.

The Combined Influence of Contact Gap and Axial Magnetic Field on the Expansion Speed of Cathode Spots in High-Current Triggered Vacuum Arc

The expansion speed of cathode spots (CSs) in the initial expansion stage of high-current triggered vacuum arc was investigated experimentally. Experiments were conducted with butt contacts in a demountable vacuum chamber. Images of CSs were photographed with a high-speed digital camera with exposure time of 2 μs. The uniform constant axial magnetic field (AMF) was supplied by an external magnetic field coil. The combined influence of contact gap of 2-10 mm and AMF of 0-70 mT on CSs expansion speed in the initial expansion stage was mainly investigated. Investigation results indicated that the variation of contact gap could influence the CSs expansion speed by changing the plasma density inside the cathode arc root in two ways: loss of arc plasma and constriction of arc column. AMF could weaken these two effects caused by the variation of contact gap. In addition, experimental results indicated that there existed a critical current for a given AMF. If the arc current peak was less than the critical current, the given AMF could inhibit the arc column constriction effectively both at contact gap of 8 and 10 mm, which could maintain the dependence that CSs expansion speed increased with contact gap; otherwise, the constriction of arc column played a major role in the influence on CSs expansion speed. In this case, the CSs expansion speed was lower at contact gap of 10 mm than that at 8 mm.

Long‐term changes of polar mesosphere summer echoes at 69°N

Polar mesosphere summer echoes (PMSE) are strong enhancements of received signal power at very high radar frequencies occurring at altitudes between about 80 and 95km at polar latitudes during summer. PMSE are caused by inhomogeneities in the electron density of the radar Bragg scale within the plasma of the cold summer mesopause region in the presence of negatively charged ice particles. Thus, the occurrence of PMSE contains information about mesospheric temperature and water vapor content but also depends on the ionization due to solar electromagnetic radiation and precipitating high energetic particles. Continuous and homogeneous observations of PMSE have been done on the North‐Norwegian Island Andøya (69.3°N, 16.0°E) from 1994 until 2008 using the ALOMAR SOUSY and the ALWIN radar at 53.5MHz. In 2009, the Leibniz‐Institute of Atmospheric Physics in Kühlungsborn, Germany started the installation of the Middle Atmosphere ALOMAR Radar System (MAARSY) at the same location. The observation of mesospheric echoes could be continued in spring 2010 starting with an initial stage of expansion of MAARSY and is carried out with the completed installation of the radar since May 2011. Since both the ALWIN radar and MAARSY are calibrated, the received echo strength of PMSE from 14 years of mesospheric observations (1999–2012) could be converted into absolute signal power. This data series could be extended to the years 1994 until 1997 on the basis of signal‐to‐noise ratio values derived during the years between 1994 and 2008. The PMSE occurrence rate is positively correlated with the geomagnetic Ap index (significance level χ=85−95%), however, is not correlated with the solar Lyman α radiation. Using different regression analysis methods, the PMSE occurrence rates show a significant positive trend during the time interval from 1994 until 2012 (χ=95−99%).

Influence of AMF on the Expansion Speed of Cathode Spots in High-Current Triggered Vacuum Arc

In this paper, the influence of an axial magnetic field (AMF) on the expansion speed of cathode spots (CSs) in the initial expansion stage of high-current triggered vacuum arc is investigated experimentally in a demountable vacuum chamber. Butt contacts with contact plate material of oxygen-free high-thermal-conductivity Cu and CuCr25 were used in experiments. Images of CSs are photographed with a high-speed digital camera with an exposure time of 2 $\mu{\rm s}$ . The uniform constant AMF in the intercontact region is supplied by external magnetic field coil. Experimental results indicate that, in an arc stabilized by AMF, CS expansion speed also increases with the increase of $di/dt$ , which is the same as that in arc burning freely. In addition, quasi-quantitative analysis of the experimental results show that the bending and lengthening of CS motion trajectory in AMF are not sufficient to explain the decrease of CS expansion speed with AMF. Another reason might be related to the inhibitory effect of AMF on the loss of arc plasma, which could also contribute to the decrease of CS expansion speed.

Occurrence frequencies of polar mesosphere summer echoes observed at 69° N during a full solar cycle

Abstract. Polar mesosphere summer echoes (PMSE) are strong enhancements of received signal power at very high radar frequencies occurring at altitudes between about 80 and 95 km at polar latitudes during summer. PMSE are caused by inhomogeneities in the electron density of the radar Bragg scale within the plasma of the cold summer mesopause region in the presence of negatively charged ice particles. Thus the occurrence of PMSE contains information about mesospheric temperature and water vapour content but also depends on the ionisation due to solar wave radiation and precipitating high energetic particles. Continuous and homogeneous observations of PMSE have been done on the North-Norwegian island Andøya (69.3° N, 16.0° E) from 1999 until 2008 using the ALWIN VHF radar at 53.5 MHz. In 2009 the Leibniz-Institute of Atmospheric Physics in Kühlungsborn, Germany (IAP) started the installation of the Middle Atmosphere Alomar Radar System (MAARSY) at the same location. The observation of mesospheric echoes could be continued in spring 2010 starting with an initial stage of expansion of MAARSY and is carried out with the completed installation of the radar since May 2011. Since both the ALWIN radar and MAARSY are calibrated, the received echo strength of PMSE from 14 yr of mesospheric observations could be converted to absolute signal power. Occurrence frequencies based on different common thresholds of PMSE echo strength were used for investigations of the solar and geomagnetic control of the PMSE as well as of possible long-term changes. The PMSE are positively correlated with the solar Lyman α radiation and the geomagnetic activity. The occurrence frequencies of the PMSE show slightly positive trends but with marginal significance levels.

Spallation reactions in shock waves at supernova explosions and related problems

The isotopic anomalies of some extinct radionuclides testify to the outburst of a nearby supernova just before the collapse of the protosolar nebula, and to the fact that the supernova was Sn Ia, i.e. the carbon-detonation supernova. A key role of spallation reactions in the formation of isotopic anomalies in the primordial matter of the Solar System is revealed. It is conditioned by the diffusive acceleration of particles in the explosive shock waves, which leads to the amplification of rigidity of the energy spectrum of particles and its enrichment with heavier ions. The quantitative calculations of such isotopic anomalies of many elements are presented. It is well-grounded that the anomalous Xe-HL in meteoritic nanodiamonds was formed simultaneously with nanodiamonds themselves during the shock wave propagation at the Sn Ia explosion. The possible effects of shock wave fractionation of noble gases in the atmosphere of planets are considered. The origin of light elements Li, Be and B in spallation reactions, predicted by Fowler in the middle of the last century, is argued. All the investigated isotopic anomalies give the evidence for the extremely high magneto- hydrodynamics (MHD) conditions at the initial stage of free expansion of the explosive shock wave from Sn Ia, which can be essential in solution of the problem of origin of cosmic rays. The specific iron-enriched matter of Sn Ia and its MHD-separation in turbulent processes must be taking into account in the models of origin of the Solar System.

MAARSY – the new MST radar on Andøya: first results of spaced antenna and Doppler measurements of atmospheric winds in the troposphere and mesosphere using a partial array

Abstract. MST radars have been used to study the troposphere, stratosphere and mesosphere over decades. These radars have proven to be a valuable tool to investigate atmospheric dynamics. MAARSY, the new MST radar at the island of Andøya uses a phased array antenna and is able to perform spaced antenna and Doppler measurements at the same time with high temporal and spatial resolution. Here we present first wind observations using the initial expansion stage during summer 2010. The tropospheric spaced antenna and Doppler beam swinging experiments are compared to radiosonde measurements, which were launched at the nearby Andøya Rocket Range (ARR). The mesospheric wind observations are evaluated versus common volume meteor radar wind measurements. The beam steering capabilities of MAARSY are demonstrated by performing systematic scans of polar mesospheric summer echoes (PMSE) using 25 and 91 beam directions. These wind observations permit to evaluate the new radar against independent measurements from radiosondes and meteor radar measurements to demonstrate its capabilities to provide reliable wind data from the troposphere up to the mesosphere.

Horizontally resolved structures of radar backscatter from polar mesospheric layers

Abstract. The Leibniz-Institute of Atmospheric Physics in Kühlungsborn, Germany (IAP) installed a new powerful VHF radar on the North-Norwegian island Andøya (69.30° N, 16.04° E) from 2009 to 2011. The new Middle Atmosphere Alomar Radar System (MAARSY) replaces the existing ALWIN radar which has been in continuous operation on Andøya for more than 10 yr. MAARSY is a monostatic radar operated at 53.5 MHz with an active phased array antenna consisting of 433 Yagi antennas each connected to its own transceiver with independent control of frequency, phase and power of the transmitted signal. This arrangement provides a very high flexibility of beam forming and beam steering. It allows classical beam swinging operation as well as experiments with simultaneous multiple beams and the use of modern interferometric applications for improved studies of the Arctic atmosphere from the troposphere up to the lower thermosphere with high spatial-temporal resolution. The installation of the antenna was completed in August 2009. An initial expansion stage of 196 transceiver modules was installed in spring 2010, upgraded to 343 transceiver modules in December 2010 and the installation of the radar was completed in spring 2011. Beside standard observations of tropospheric winds and Polar Mesosphere Summer Echoes, multi-beam experiments using up to 91 beams quasi-simultaneously in the mesosphere have been carried out using the different expansion stages of the system during campaigns in 2010 and 2011. These results provided a first insight into the horizontal variability of Polar Mesosphere Summer and Winter Echoes in an area of about 80 km by 80 km with time resolutions between 3 and 9 min.

Experimental Investigation on the Initial Expansion Process in a Drawn Vacuum Arc and the Influence of Axial Magnetic Field

The initial expansion process in a drawn vacuum arc and the influence of axial magnetic field (AMF) were investigated experimentally in a demountable vacuum chamber. Arc characteristics were investigated with the aid of a high-speed digital camera with an exposure time of 2 μs . In a drawn vacuum arc, the arc sequence begins with the bridge column arc formed after the rupture of the molten metal bridge. This column evolves into the transition mode, which consisted of a central column with few or no cathode spots (CSs) outside the column, and then into the fully diffuse mode. Experimental results indicated that in transition mode arc, the expansion process could be characterized by the appearance of CSs outside the central column, and could be classified into two patterns, “slow” expansion and “quick” expansion according to the characteristics of the formation and motion of new CSs (conducting channels) outside the central column of arc. The influence of AMF and its distribution on the expansion process was also investigated. Investigation results indicated that AMF had two contrary effects, i.e., inhibiting effect and prompting effect, on the initial expansion stage of drawn vacuum arc. Furthermore, saddle-shaped AMF could encourage the arc transition into diffuse mode more effectively than bell-shaped AMF.

MAARSY: The new MST radar on Andøya—System description and first results

The Middle Atmosphere Alomar Radar System (MAARSY) on the North‐Norwegian island Andøya is a 53.5 MHz monostatic radar with an active phased array antenna consisting of 433 Yagi antennas. The 3‐element Yagi antennas are arranged in an equilateral triangle grid forming a circular aperture of approximately 6300 m2. Each individual antenna is connected to its own transceiver with independent phase control and a scalable power output up to 2 kW. This arrangement provides a very high flexibility of beam forming and beam steering with a symmetric radar beam of a minimum beam width of 3.6° allowing classical beam swinging operation as well as experiments with simultaneous multiple beams and the use of interferometric applications for improved studies of the Arctic atmosphere from the troposphere up to the lower thermosphere with high spatio‐temporal resolution. The installation of the antenna array was completed in August 2009. The radar control and data acquisition hardware as well as an initial expansion stage of 196 transceiver modules was installed in spring 2010 and upgraded to 343 transceiver modules in November 2010. The final extension to 433 transceiver modules has recently been completed in May 2011. Beside standard observations of tropospheric winds and Polar Mesosphere Summer Echoes, the first multi‐beam experiments using up to 97 quasi‐simultaneous beams in the mesosphere have been carried out in 2010 and 2011. These results provide a first insight into the horizontal variability of polar mesosphere summer and winter echoes with time resolutions between 3 and 9 minutes. In addition, first meteor head echo observations were conducted during the Geminid meteor shower in December 2010.

The effect of the target structure and composition on the ejection and transport of polymer molecules and carbon nanotubes in matrix-assisted pulsed laser evaporation

Matrix-assisted pulsed laser evaporation (MAPLE) is a prominent member of a broad and expanding class of laser-driven deposition techniques where a matrix of volatile molecules absorbs laser irradiation and provides the driving force for the ejection and transport of the material to be deposited. The mechanisms of MAPLE are investigated in coarse-grained molecular dynamic simulations focused on establishing the physical regimes and limits of the molecular transfer from targets with different structures and compositions. The systems considered in the simulations include dilute solutions of polymer molecules and individual carbon nanotubes (CNTs), as well as continuous networks of carbon nanotubes impregnated with solvent. The polymer molecules and nanotubes are found to be ejected only in the ablation regime and are incorporated into matrix-polymer droplets generated in the process of the explosive disintegration of the overheated matrix. The ejection and deposition of droplets explain the experimental observations of complex surface morphologies in films deposited by MAPLE. In simulations performed for MAPLE targets loaded with CNTs, the ejection of individual nanotubes, CNT bundles, and tangles with sizes comparable or even exceeding the laser penetration depth is observed. The ejected CNTs align along the flow direction in the matrix plume and tend to agglomerate into bundles at the initial stage of the ablation plume expansion. In a large-scale simulation performed for a target containing a network of interconnected CNT bundles, a large tangle of CNT bundles with the total mass of 50 MDa is separated from the continuous network and entrained with the matrix plume. No significant splitting and thinning of CNT bundles in the ejection process is observed in the simulations, suggesting that fragile structural elements or molecular agglomerates with complex secondary structures may be transferred and deposited to the substrate with the MAPLE technique.

Nonlinear thermo-optical properties of two-layered spherical system of gold nanoparticle core and water vapor shell during initial stage of shell expansion

Nonlinear thermo-optical properties of two-layered spherical system of gold nanoparticle core and water vapor shell, created under laser heating of nanoparticle in water, were theoretically investigated. Vapor shell expansion leads to decreasing up to one to two orders of magnitude in comparison with initial values of scattering and extinction of the radiation with wavelengths 532 and 633 nm by system while shell radius is increased up to value of about two radii of nanoparticle. Subsequent increasing of shell radius more than two radii of nanoparticle leads to rise of scattering and extinction properties of system over initial values. The significant decrease of radiation scattering and extinction by system of nanoparticle-vapor shell can be used for experimental detection of the energy threshold of vapor shell formation and investigation of the first stages of its expansion.PACS: 42.62.BE. 78.67. BF

R-Java: anr-process code and graphical user interface for heavy-element nucleosynthesis

We present r-Java, an r-process code for open use, that performs r-process nucleosynthesis calculations. Equipped with a simple graphical user interface, r-Java is capable of carrying out nuclear statistical equilibrium (NSE) as well as static and dynamic r-process calculations for a wide range of input parameters. In this introductory paper, we present the motivation and details behind r-Java, and results from our static and dynamic simulations. Static simulations are explored for a range of neutron irradiation and temperatures. Dynamic simulations are studied with a parameterized expansion formula. Our code generates the resulting abundance pattern based on a general entropy expression that can be applied to degenerate as well as non-degenerate matter, allowing us to track the rapid density and temperature evolution of the ejecta during the initial stages of ejecta expansion. At present, our calculations are limited to the waiting-point approximation. We encourage the nuclear astrophysics community to provide feedback on the code and related documentation, which is available for download from the website of the Quark-Nova Project: http://quarknova.ucalgary.ca/

ISO 9001 diffusion analysis according to activity sectors

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to analyse the evolution of the world‐wide diffusion, according to industrial sectors of activity, of the ISO 9000 family of quality standards.Design/methodology/approachUsing data provided by the ISO itself, the evolution of the world‐wide diffusion of the ISO 9000 family of standards from 1998 to 2008 is studied. Using two indices of instability, these data are then analysed in terms of individual industrial sectors to assess the heterogeneity of diffusion across different sectors of activity.FindingsThe results show that the diffusion of ISO 9001 follows a logistic curve in all sectors, although the current stage of diffusion (in terms of initial stage, expansion stage, and saturation stage) differs between different sectors of activity. The sectors have been classified into three groups according to their possible future evolution.Research limitations/implicationsBecause the analysis of prediction is based on mathematical models, the validity of the data is crucial. Two weaknesses are detected in the data: the number of certificates during the transition period 2001‐2003; and the number of certificates in 2008. However, both weaknesses are overcome in the paper.Originality/valueThe paper presents the first study of the heterogeneous diffusion pattern of ISO 9001 in different sectors of activity.

In-situ observation of bubble formation at silicon melt–silica glass interface

The generation mechanism of pinhole defects in the Czochralski (CZ)-grown silicon (Si) single crystals was clarified by in-situ observations of bubble formation at the interface between Si melt and a silica glass crucible in a small experimental apparatus. The nucleation and growth of bubbles were facilitated by creating small cavities on the inner wall of the crucible. Si melting was conducted in an argon (Ar) atmosphere, and the pressure was maintained at either 100Torr or close to a vacuum (no Ar-gas flow). It was found that in the presence of Ar, bubbles formed in the cavities immediately after the cavities came in contact with the melt. However, no bubbles formed in a vacuum in the experimental apparatus. These results indicate that the bubbles formed in the cavities are largely filled with Ar, and the initial bubble volumes are nearly comparable with those of the cavities. In an initial stage of expansion of a bubble, estimated volumes changed nearly in accordance with the Boyle–Charles law. Further, participation of SiO gas in bubble growth may explain the deviation of the bubble volume from the theoretical value anticipated if only Ar gas was involved in the bubble growth.

Numerical simulation of the 12 May 1997 CME Event: The role of magnetic reconnection

We perform a numerical study of the evolution of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) and its interaction with the coronal magnetic field based on the 12 May 1997, CME event using a global MagnetoHydroDynamic (MHD) model for the solar corona. The ambient solar wind steady‐state solution is driven by photospheric magnetic field data, while the solar eruption is obtained by superimposing an unstable flux rope onto the steady‐state solution. During the initial stage of CME expansion, the core flux rope reconnects with the neighboring field, which facilitates lateral expansion of the CME footprint in the low corona. The flux rope field also reconnects with the oppositely orientated overlying magnetic field in the manner of the breakout model. During this stage of the eruption, the simulated CME rotates counter‐clockwise to achieve an orientation that is in agreement with the interplanetary flux rope observed at 1 AU. A significant component of the CME that expands into interplanetary space comprises one of the side lobes created mainly as a result of reconnection with the overlying field. Within 3 hours, reconnection effectively modifies the CME connectivity from the initial condition where both footpoints are rooted in the active region to a situation where one footpoint is displaced into the quiet Sun, at a significant distance (≈1R⊙) from the original source region. The expansion and rotation due to interaction with the overlying magnetic field stops when the CME reaches the outer edge of the helmet streamer belt, where the field is organized on a global scale. The simulation thus offers a new view of the role reconnection plays in rotating a CME flux rope and transporting its footpoints while preserving its core structure.

Numerical study of the expansion of metallic vapor plasma by a nanosecond laser pulse

The interaction between a laser-produced aluminum plasma and the ambient air, at a pressure of 173.3 Pa, is studied at the plasma thermalization stage. A two-dimensional approach is developed to solve the Navier–Stokes equations, where a finite volume discretization allows for obtaining a numerical solution. The simulation runs over a time representing 10 μs of plasma expansion. It is shown that the shock and drag models are good approximations for the two successive regimes after the initial strong expansion stage, and the calculation makes evident the plume sharpening on the axial direction before its confinement by the ambient gas, which is in good agreement with the experimental observation.

The role of continuum radiation in laser induced plasma spectroscopy

This paper focuses on the interpretation of the origin of the continuum radiation in Laser Induced Plasma (LIP) emission spectra, a subject that has received little consideration in the literature when compared to the analysis of the line emission spectrum. The understanding of the spectral peculiarities observed immediately after the laser pulse, when the continuum radiation prevails on discrete emission lines, can be extremely important to retrieve the initial conditions of LIP and to correlate the produced plasma to the ablation mechanism. In this work, in addition to a qualitative interpretation of the LIP continuum in the initial stage of expansion, a methodology is proposed for a better measurement of the atomic temperature in the expansion stage of the LIP. Such methodology is based on the analysis of the combined Boltzmann and Planck plots. The results obtained stress once again the importance of considering non equilibrium effects in the initial stage of LIP expansion.

Effect of neutron irradiation on the characteristics of laser-produced plasma

Using the mass-spectrometric method we studied the formation of multi-charged plasma ions during the interaction of laser radiation with solid targets irradiated by neutron beams. We found that structural defects, caused by the neutron irradiation, influence not only the efficiency of the process of material evaporation and emission of plasma, but also the ionization and recombination processes taking place at the initial stage of plasma formation and expansion. We also show the effect of the dose of neutron irradiation on the threshold of plasma formation from the surface of the target.

Temporal changes in distribution, prevalence and intensity of northern fowl mite ( Ornithonyssus sylviarum) parasitism in commercial caged laying hens, with a comprehensive economic analysis of parasite impact

Establishment and spread of Ornithonyssus sylviarum were documented through time on sentinel hens (50 per house of 28,000–30,000 hens) in the first egg production cycle of three large commercial flocks (12 houses) of white leghorn hens. Mites were controlled using acaricide, and the impacts of treatment on mite populations and economic performance were documented. Mite prevalence and intensity increased rapidly and in tandem for 4–8 weeks after infestation. Intensity declined due to immune system involvement, but prevalence remained high, and this would affect mite sampling plan use and development. Early treatment was more effective at controlling mites; 85% of light infestations were eliminated by a pesticide spray (Ravap), versus 24% of heavy infestations. Hens infested later developed lower peak mite intensities, and those mite populations declined more quickly than on hens infested earlier in life. Raw spatial association by distance indices (SADIE), incorporating both the intensity and distribution of mites within a house, were high from week-to-week within a hen house. Once adjusted spatially to reflect variable hen cohorts becoming infested asynchronously, this analysis showed the association index tended to rebound at intervals of 5–6 weeks after the hen immune system first suppressed them. Large, consistent mite differences in one flock (high vs. low infestation levels) showed the economic damage of mite parasitism (assessed by flock indexing) was very high in the initial stages of mite expansion. Unmitigated infestations overall reduced egg production (2.1–4.0%), individual egg weights (0.5–2.2%), and feed conversion efficiency (5.7%), causing a profit reduction of $0.07–0.10 per hen for a 10-week period. Asynchronous infestation patterns among pesticide-treated hens may have contributed to a lack of apparent flock-level economic effects later in the production cycle. Individual egg weights differed with mite loads periodically, but could be either higher or lower, depending on circumstances and interactions with hen weight. Individual hen weight gains were depressed by high/moderate mite loads, but the heavier hens in a flock harbored more mites. This led to compensatory weight gains after mites declined. Tradeoffs between resource allocation to body growth or production versus immune system function appeared to be operating during the early and most damaging mite infestation period, when high egg production was beginning and the hens were gaining weight. The results were related to other studies of mite impact on domestic hens and to wild bird–ectoparasite studies. Much of the mite economic damage probably is due to engaging and maintaining the immune response.