Initial Probability Research Articles

Changing patterns of cigarette and ENDS transitions in the USA: a multistate transition analysis of youth and adults in the PATH Study in 2015–2017 vs 2017–2019

IntroductionIt is unknown how recent changes in the tobacco product marketplace have impacted transitions in cigarette and electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS) use.MethodsA multistate transition model was applied to 24...

Риск-ориентированный анализ безопасности и защищенности промышленных объектов на основе характеристик прочности и ресурса

The concept of computation and experimental determination of safety and protectability of industrial facilities on parameters of risk of initiation of refusals, accidents and disasters taking into account possibility of regular and emergency situations is considered. The scientifically substantiated, normalized and controlled parameters of risks estimated by criteria of strength, life-time and survivability are its basis. Risks at the same time are estimated on probabilities of initiation of emergency situations and losses accompanying them at their interdependence. It is shown that generally safety is defined by ability of installations not to pass into emergency and catastrophic states with drawing significant damages to the person, a technosphere and environment; the risk is defined by probability of initiation on installation of adverse situations and possible losses from these situations; protectability is defined by ability of installation to resist to initiation and an evolution of adverse situations (refusals, accidents, disasters) in regular and emergency conditions. The new perspective direction for maintenance of conditions of safe service of industrial facilities is that which initially forms the level of their protectability, and this protectability is defined by the formed and acceptable risks. In this case the solution of basic problems of protectability, safety and risk has to be guided surely by the solution of problems of strength, a life-time, survivability in their direct interaction This circumstance is based on a quantitative estimation of conditions of service damages accumulation and on the analysis of conditions of transition from regular to the damaged and limit states of installation taking into account criteria of strength, fatigue life and survivability. The solution of practical problems of maintenance of strength, life-time and safety within of strength, life-time and risk-focused design assumes determination of nominal and local stresses from service loadings in the most loaded zones with use of characteristics of mechanical properties of constructional materials. In the paper it is put and solved the new scientific and almost important problem about risk-focused definition, maintenance, increase and a standartization of complex safety and protectability of technosphere installations by criteria of the acceptable and controlled risks.

#1922 Patterns and 2-year outcomes of preemptive vascular access creation in France

Abstract Background and Aims Most studies on clinical practices regarding the type and the timing of vascular access creation are limited to patients on kidney replacement therapy (KRT) from North American settings. Our aim was to describe patterns of preemptive vascular access creation in patients under nephrology care in France, and to assess the subsequent risks of hemodialysis (HD) initiation with arteriovenous (AV) access use, HD initiation with central venous catheter (CVC) use, initiation of other KRT modality, and competing death. Method From 2013 through 2016, the CKD-REIN cohort included 3033 adult patients with CKD stages 3 to 5 from 40 outpatient nephrology clinics in France, nationally representative geographically and in terms of facility legal status (public, private not for profit, and private for profit). Participants were followed for 5 years or until initiation of kidney replacement therapy (KRT) or death, whichever came first. Patients who underwent a first vascular access creation during follow-up were eligible for this analysis. We described the type, anatomical site and timing of the first vascular access created, as well as patients’ associated characteristics. The number and type of subsequent accesses were also described. Among patients who underwent AV fistula creation first, we used the cumulative incidence functions to estimate the 2-year probabilities of HD initiation with AV access use (independently of its type or order), HD initiation with CVC use, initiation of other KRT modality, and death. Results Over a median follow-up of 5.0 years (interquartile range [IQR], 4.6 to 5.2), 535 patients (18% of the total population) underwent a first vascular access creation. 408 patients (75%) had an AV fistula as their first vascular access, 7 patients (1%), an AV graft, and 127 patients (24%), a CVC. AV fistulas were predominantly located in the lower arm (76%). The median eGFR levels at access creation were 13 (IQR, 10 to 16), 12 (10 to 14) and 9 (6 to 13) ml/min/1.73 m2 for AV fistula, AV graft, and CVC, respectively. Groups defined by their first vascular access did not differ with regards to diabetes status, but patients who received AV fistula as their first vascular access stood out for being younger and having less cardiovascular comorbidities than their counterparts who received AV graft or CVC (Table 1). In contrast to the 7 patients with first AV graft who did not have any subsequent access creation, 22% of those with first AV fistula had at least one subsequent access creation before initiating KRT. The subsequent access was a fistula in 49% of cases (54% of them in the lower arm), a CVC in 48% and a graft in 2%. The 2-year cumulative incidences of HD initiation with AV access use, HD initiation with CVC use, preemptive kidney transplantation and pre-KRT death were 61%, 14%, 2% and 5%, respectively (Fig. 1); 18% of patients undergoing a first AV fistula creation did not experience any event within two years, and 25% did not start HD. No patients received peritoneal dialysis as other KRT modality. Conclusion In this nationwide description of patterns of preemptive vascular access creation, we highlight that lower arm AV fistula is largely prioritized, even after a first failed AV fistula creation. This may contribute to the higher use of AV fistula among HD patients in France compared to North American countries. Most patients who undergo a first AV fistula creation eventually start hemodialysis with an AV access within 2 years of this creation, but 1 out of 4 do not start HD at all (because of death, preemptive transplantation, or stable kidney function). Novel tools assisting clinical decision making in preemptive AV fistula creation are needed.

Non-Markovian processes on heteroclinic networks.

Sets of saddle equilibria connected by trajectories are known as heteroclinic networks. Trajectories near a heteroclinic network typically spend a long period of time near one of the saddles before rapidly transitioning to the neighborhood of a different saddle. The sequence of saddles visited by a trajectory can be considered a stochastic sequence of states. In the presence of small-amplitude noise, this sequence may be either Markovian or non-Markovian, depending on the appearance of a phenomenon called lift-off at one or more saddles of the network. In this paper, we investigate how lift-off occurring at one saddle affects the dynamics near the next saddle visited, how we might determine the order of the associated Markov chain of states, and how we might calculate the transition probabilities of that Markov chain. We first review methods developed by Bakhtin to determine the map describing the dynamics near a linear saddle in the presence of noise and extend the results to include three different initial probability distributions. Using Bakhtin's map, we determine conditions under which the effect of lift-off persists as the trajectory moves past a subsequent saddle. We then propose a method for finding a lower bound for the order of this Markov chain. Many of the theoretical results in this paper are only valid in the limit of small noise, and we numerically investigate how close simulated results get to the theoretical predictions over a range of noise amplitudes and parameter values.

Prevalence of the use of oral nutritional supplements among acute inpatients at risk of malnutrition and associated patient characteristics.

To provide a snapshot of the current use of oral nutritional supplements, its association with inpatient characteristics, and with a focus on the role of nursing monitoring of food intake and implementing nutritional interventions for patients with low intake. Retrospective cohort study. The study collected data from a hospital database regarding oral nutritional supplement initiation and variables of patients hospitalised in internal medicine departments, who did not receive enteral or parenteral nutrition. Of the 5155 admissions, 1087 fulfilled the inclusion criteria (47% female; mean age, 72.4 ± 14.6 years; mean length of stay, 14.6 ± 11.4 days). Sufficient food intake reporting was noted in 74.6% of the patients; of these 17% had decreased intake. Oral nutritional supplements and non-oral nutritional supplements groups did not differ in terms of sex, age, length of stay, Charlson Comorbidity Index, proportion of nursing reports, and absence of intake monitoring. Oral nutritional supplements were initiated in 31.9% of patients with a Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool score ≥2 and in 34.6% with decreased food intake. On multivariable analysis, hypoalbuminemia (adjusted odds ratio, 3.70), decreased food intake (adjusted odds ratio, 3.38), Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool score ≥2 (adjusted odds ratio, 2.10), and age <70 years (adjusted odds ratio, 1.56) were significantly associated with oral nutritional supplements use. The prevalence of oral nutritional intervention was suboptimal in patients at risk of malnutrition during acute hospitalisation, although decreased food intake and Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool score ≥2 independently increased the probability of oral nutritional supplements initiation. Understanding the clinical practice and nursing impact of care management in relation to nutritional intervention can assist in reviewing and improving patient care. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PROFESSION AND/OR PATIENT CARE IMPACT (ADDRESSING): This study informs clinical management and influences nursing practice standards related to assessing, monitoring, and managing malnutrition risk. The study impacts the quality of care for patients at risk of malnutrition. We adhered to the STROBE Checklist for cohort studies. No Patient or Public Contribution.

Prediction of MicroRNA-Disease Potential Association Based on Sparse Learning and Multilayer Random Walks.

More and more studies have shown that microRNAs (miRNAs) play an indispensable role in the study of complex diseases in humans. Traditional biological experiments to detect miRNA-disease associations are expensive and time-consuming. Therefore, it is necessary to propose efficient and meaningful computational models to predict miRNA-disease associations. In this study, we aim to propose a miRNA-disease association prediction model based on sparse learning and multilayer random walks (SLMRWMDA). The miRNA-disease association matrix is decomposed and reconstructed by the sparse learning method to obtain richer association information, and at the same time, the initial probability matrix for the random walk with restart algorithm is obtained. The disease similarity network, miRNA similarity network, and miRNA-disease association network are used to construct heterogeneous networks, and the stable probability is obtained based on the topological structure features of diseases and miRNAs through a multilayer random walk algorithm to predict miRNA-disease potential association. The experimental results show that the prediction accuracy of this model is significantly improved compared with the previous related models. We evaluated the model using global leave-one-out cross-validation (global LOOCV) and fivefold cross-validation (5-fold CV). The area under the curve (AUC) value for the LOOCV is 0.9368. The mean AUC value for 5-fold CV is 0.9335 and the variance is 0.0004. In the case study, the results show that SLMRWMDA is effective in inferring the potential association of miRNA-disease.

Synaptotagmin-7 Counteracts Short-Term Depression during Phasic Dopamine Release.

Dopamine neurons switch from tonic pacemaker activity to high-frequency bursts in response to salient stimuli. These bursts lead to superlinear increases in dopamine release, and the degree of this increase is highly dependent on firing frequency. The superlinearity and frequency dependence of dopamine release implicate short-term plasticity processes. The presynaptic Ca2+-sensor synaptotagmin-7 (SYT7) has suitable properties to mediate such short-term plasticity and has been implicated in regulating dopamine release from somatodendritic compartments. Here, we use a genetically encoded dopamine sensor and whole-cell electrophysiology in Syt7 KO mice to determine how SYT7 contributes to both axonal and somatodendritic dopamine release. We find that SYT7 mediates a hidden component of facilitation of release from dopamine terminals that can be unmasked by lowering initial release probability or by predepressing synapses with low-frequency stimulation. Depletion of SYT7 increased short-term depression and reduced release during stimulations that mimic in vivo firing. Recordings of D2-mediated inhibitory postsynaptic currents in the substantia nigra pars compacta (SNc) confirmed a similar role for SYT7 in somatodendritic release. Our results indicate that SYT7 drives short-term facilitation of dopamine release, which may explain the frequency dependence of dopamine signaling seen in vivo.

An improved dynamic game analysis of farmers, enterprises and rural collective economic organizations based on idle land reuse policy

Land use is a crucial symbol of sustainable development. Rural homestead idleness is problem that is caused by market failure and related to the national economy and people's livelihood. (1) Background: Developing countries should use idle land to develop their economies. The government has introduced various land policies for the reuse of idle residential land to improve the land utilization rate. (2) Methods: This paper investigates players' behavior in reusing rural homesteads based on an improved dynamic game model. An improved tripartite evolutionary game model is developed by introducing principal-agent theory, which is the major contributor to behavioral investigation. MATLAB2022a is used to simulate the analysis to propose countermeasures and suggestions for optimizing homestead reuse. (3) Results: In this paper, it was found that disputes among participants about the sharing of reuse costs and the distribution of potential benefits constituted a potent system of explanatory coordinates that effectively revealed the hidden logic of homestead reuse. The government can strengthen incentives by providing dynamic subsidies linked with individual behavior. (4) Conclusions: Regardless of the initial probability, players will jointly reuse homesteads in the end. Local governments and rural collective economic organizations play an important role in reusing homesteads, so the carrot-and-stick approach supervised by local government is the key to maintaining the stability of cooperation. Moreover, under the concept of sustainable development, governments of all countries actively release the policy of reusing idle land to promote the utilization of resources.

Research on compression-compression fatigue properties of carbon nanotubes reinforced closed-cell aluminum matrix composite foams by reinforcement content design

As the requirement of compressive fatigue loading on the mechanical properties of aluminium foams increase rapidly, the limited fatigue performance of them significantly restricts their engineering applications. In this study, the compression-compression fatigue properties of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) reinforced closed-cell Al-Si composite foams (C-ASCFs) were investigated. The fatigue strength of C-ASCFs with 0.50 wt% CNTs increased by 54% than that of Al-Si foams, where the CNTs contributed to decrease the crack expansion rate, transfer the fatigue load and hence change the fatigue failure mode, causing a combination of plastic and brittle deformation in them. Meanwhile, the appropriate incorporation of CNTs decreased pore nucleation threshold, optimized the pore morphology, and promoted the formation and refinement of eutectic Si. Such inhibited the probability of fatigue cracks initiation, resulting in the enhancement of fatigue life. This work provides theoretical and practical basis of design strategy of Al-Si composite foams and broadens their application prospect.

RIM-BP2 regulates Ca2+ channel abundance and neurotransmitter release at hippocampal mossy fiber terminals

Synaptic vesicles dock and fuse at the presynaptic active zone (AZ), the specialized site for transmitter release. AZ proteins play multiple roles such as recruitment of Ca2+ channels as well as synaptic vesicle docking, priming, and fusion. However, the precise role of each AZ protein type remains unknown. In order to dissect the role of RIM-BP2 at mammalian cortical synapses having low release probability, we applied direct electrophysiological recording and super-resolution imaging to hippocampal mossy fiber terminals of RIM-BP2 knockout (KO) mice. By using direct presynaptic recording, we found the reduced Ca2+ currents. The measurements of excitatory postsynaptic currents (EPSCs) and presynaptic capacitance suggested that the initial release probability was lowered because of the reduced Ca2+ influx and impaired fusion competence in RIM-BP2 KO. Nevertheless, larger Ca2+ influx restored release partially. Consistent with presynaptic recording, STED microscopy suggested less abundance of P/Q-type Ca2+ channels at AZs deficient in RIM-BP2. Our results suggest that the RIM-BP2 regulates both Ca2+ channel abundance and transmitter release at mossy fiber synapses.

A three-player game model for promoting enterprise green technology innovation from the perspective of media coverage.

The objective of this study was to explore the game relationship among enterprise, the government, and the public under the new media environment, so as to provide decision-making reference for improving enterprise green technology innovation and promoting economy high-quality development with new media participation. This study constructs a three-subject evolutionary game model of enterprise, government, and public based on multi-agent relationship analysis and evolutionary game theory. In addition, the derivation of an evolutionary equilibrium strategy and numerical simulation analysis is carried out to comprehensively explore the evolution trajectory of green technology innovation system under the new media environment. (1) The system may have four stable evolutionary strategies: (1,0,0), (0,0,1), (1,0,1), and (1,1,1). (2) The initial strategy probability of various actors would affect the system evolution speed but not the evolution result, and the authenticity of new media reports is an important factor determining the system evolution of green technology innovation. (3) Numerical simulation results show that a fair and just new media environment can effectively constrain the traditional production behavior of enterprise, actively guide the public to participate in supervision, and play an alternative role to government regulation to a certain extent. This study explores the evolutionary balance strategy of green technology innovation system under the new media environment, which not only enriches relevant theories of media environment governance but also has important reference value for promoting enterprises' green technology innovation and establishing an environmental governance system jointly governed by government, enterprise, public, and media.

Educational attainment and family health risk behaviors

Many studies have shown that education does play a role in personal health risk behaviors, but few studies have focused on whether education significantly affects family health risk behaviors. In this article, we aim to examine the effects of educational attainment on family health behaviors using survey data from China Family Panel Studies (CFPS). The ordinary least squares (OLS) approach and the instrumental variable (IV) method are adopted. Regression results show that the educational attainment of respondents has a significant inhibitory effect on household smoking participation, the number of smokers, and the number of cigarettes smoked per day, but has no significant effect on household drinking behavior. Results of mechanism analysis reveal that a one-stage increase in the population's education level would reduce the probability of smoking initiation by 7.89% and decrease the daily cigarettes consumption by 4.59. Heterogeneity analyses suggest that compared to women, men's increased educational attainment has a significant inhibitory effect on smoking participation not only for themselves but also for the rest of the household. From a health perspective, we suggest that the government should further promote the development of education.

Bacterial infections in patients with COVID-19: the impact of procalcitonin testing on antibiotics prescription in the real world

BackgroundBacterial infections are not prevalent among patients hospitalized with COVID-19, while unnecessary prescription of antibiotics was commonly observed. This study aimed to determine the impact of procalcitonin testing on antibiotics prescription in the real-world setting.MethodsWe performed a territory-wide retrospective cohort study involving all laboratory-confirmed patients hospitalized in public hospitals in Hong Kong in 2020 with COVID-19. We determined the prevalence of bacterial co-infections (documented infections within 72 h of admission) and secondary bacterial infections (infections after 72 h of admission) and antibiotics consumption, and the correlation between procalcitonin testing and antibiotics prescription.ResultsThe cohort included 8666 patients, with mean age 45.3 ± 19.9 years, 48.5% male, and comorbidities in 26.9%. Among 2688 patients with bacterial cultures performed, 147 (5.5%) had bacterial co-infections, and 222 (8.3%) had secondary bacterial infections. Antibiotics were prescribed for 2773 (32.0%) patients during the hospital admission. Procalcitonin tests were performed for 2543 (29.3%) patients. More patients with procalcitonin testing received antibiotics (65.9% vs. 17.9%, p < 0.001). Procalcitonin testing was associated with 5-fold increased risk of antibiotics prescription after adjusting for confounding variables. At hospital level, procalcitonin testing correlated with antibiotics prescription. Patients with procalcitonin level < 0.5 ng/mL had a lower probability of antibiotics initiation and shorter duration of antibiotics therapy.ConclusionsProcalcitonin testing was not associated with lower prescription of antibiotics. Patients with low procalcitonin level had lower antibiotics exposure, supporting the use of procalcitonin to exclude bacterial infections aiding early stopping of antibiotics among patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

The curious case of CO2 dissociation on Cu(110).

Dissociation of CO2 on copper surfaces is an important model system for understanding the elementary steps in catalytic conversion of CO2 to methanol. Using molecular beam-surface scattering methods, we measure the initial dissociation probabilities (S0) of CO2 on a flat, clean Cu(110) surface under ultrahigh vacuum conditions. The observed S0 ranges from 3.9 × 10-4 to 1.8 × 10-2 at incidence energies of 0.64-1.59eV. By extrapolating the trend observed in the incidence energy dependence of S0, we estimate the lower limit of the dissociation barrier on terrace sites to be around 2eV. We discuss these results in the context of what is known from previous studies on this system using different experiments and theoretical/computational methods. These findings are anticipated to be valuable for correctly understanding the elementary steps in CO2 dissociation on Cu surfaces.

Time to Treatment Initiation and HIV Viral Suppression in People Diagnosed With HIV-1 During COVID-19 Pandemic in Ex-Aquitaine, France (ANRS CO3 AQUIVIH-NA Cohort-QuAliCOV Study).

The COVID-19 pandemic's impact on initiation and effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in people diagnosed with HIV remains unclear. We evaluated critical delays in HIV care in people diagnosed before and during the pandemic in ex-Aquitaine, France. We considered adults diagnosed with HIV-1 in 2018-2021 and enrolled in the ANRS CO3 AQUIVIH-NA and followed them until October 10, 2022 for those diagnosed during the pandemic (April 01, 2020-December 31, 2021) and until March 31, 2020 for historical controls. We compared their characteristics at inclusion and the median time between diagnosis and ART initiation, ART initiation and viral suppression, and diagnosis and virologic, suppression (effective management). Eighty-three individuals were diagnosed during the pandemic versus 188 during the prepandemic period. Median follow-up was 549 (interquartile range: 329-713) days. Populations were similar in sex, age, HIV acquisition mode, hospital type, and clinical characteristics at diagnosis; however, fewer were foreign-born during the pandemic (15.7% versus 33.5%, P = 0.003). The probability of ART initiation, therapeutic success, and effective management was higher in people living with HIV (PLWH) diagnosed during the pandemic in adjusted analyses (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.0; 95% CI: 1.5 to 2.7; HR: 1.7; 95% CI: 1.2 to 2.3; HR: 1.8; 95% CI: 1.3 to 2.6, respectively). Those diagnosed during the pandemic were 2.3 (95% CI: 1.2 to 4.1) times more likely to be virologically suppressed within six months of diagnosis compared with historical controls. Pandemic-related reorganizations may have resulted in newly diagnosed PLWH being prioritized; however, the lower proportion of foreign-born PLWH diagnosed during the pandemic period, likely because of reduced migration and potential delays in diagnosis, may contribute to these preliminary findings.

Different roles of initial and final character positional probabilities on incidental word learning during Chinese reading

Different roles of initial and final character positional probabilities on incidental word learning during Chinese reading

Cost-effectiveness of endovascular treatment after 6-24 h in ischaemic stroke patients with collateral flow on CT-angiography: A model-based economic evaluation of the MR CLEAN-LATE trial.

The MR CLEAN-LATE trial has shown that patient selection for endovascular treatment (EVT) in the late window (6-24 h after onset or last-seen-well) based on the presence of collateral flow on CT-angiography is safe and effective. We aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of late-window collateral-based EVT-selection compared to best medical management (BMM) over a lifetime horizon (until 95 years of age). A model-based economic evaluation was performed from a societal perspective in The Netherlands. A decision tree was combined with a state-transition (Markov) model. Health states were defined by the modified Rankin Scale (mRS). Initial probabilities at 3-months post-stroke were based on MR CLEAN-LATE data. Transition probabilities were derived from previous literature. Information on short- and long-term resource use and utilities was obtained from a study using MR CLEAN-LATE and cross-sectional data. All costs are expressed in 2022 euros. Costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were discounted at a rate of 4% and 1.5%, respectively. The effect of parameter uncertainty was assessed using probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). On average, the EVT strategy cost €159,592 (95% CI: €140,830-€180,154) and generated 3.46 QALYs (95% CI: 3.04-3.90) per patient, whereas the costs and QALYs associated with BMM were €149,935 (95% CI: €130,841-€171,776) and 2.88 (95% CI: 2.48-3.29), respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per QALY and the incremental net monetary benefit were €16,442 and €19,710, respectively. At a cost-effectiveness threshold of €50,000/QALY, EVT was cost-effective in 87% of replications. Collateral-based selection for late-window EVT is likely cost-effective from a societal perspective in The Netherlands.

Assessing the dynamics of CO adsorption on Cu(110) using the vdW-DF2 functional and artificial neural networks

In this work, we revisit the dynamics of carbon monoxide molecular chemisorption on Cu(110) by using quasi-classical trajectory calculations. The molecule–surface interaction is described through an atomistic neural network approach based on Density Functional Theory calculations using a nonlocal exchange–correlation (XC) functional that includes the effect of long-range dispersion forces: vdW-DF2 [Lee et al. Phys. Rev. B, 82, 081101 (2010)]. With this approach, we significantly improve the agreement with experiments with respect to a similar previous study based on a semi-local XC functional. In particular, we obtain excellent agreement with molecular beam experimental data concerning the dependence of the initial sticking probability on surface temperature and impact energy at normal incidence. For off-normal incidence, our results also reproduce two trends observed experimentally: (i) the preferential sticking for molecules impinging parallel to the [1̄10] direction compared to [001] and (ii) the change from positive to negative scaling as the impact energy increases. Nevertheless, understanding the origin of some remaining quantitative discrepancies with experiments requires further investigations.

Quantification of climate change impact on rainfall-induced shallow landslide susceptibility: a case study in central Norway

ABSTRACT Climate change impact on rainfall-induced landslide susceptibility of a certain region is often implied based on expected changes in rainfall patterns and rarely explicitly quantified. This study aims to address this gap by implementing coupled landslide and climate modelling chains to explicitly assess the effects of changing rainfall patterns on rainfall-induced landslide susceptibility. The effects of climate change are integrated into the landslide modelling chain via Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves for the present and future climate conditions for a landslide-prone study area located in central Norway. The effects of climate change on landslide susceptibility are examined by using a physical-based landslide prediction model with rainfall events of varying duration and intensity that are simulated based on the climate-dependent IDF curves. The novelty of this study is the proposition of a novel probabilistic framework to assess the climate change impact on landslide susceptibility for rainfall events with a given duration. The proposed framework accounts for both the uncertainties of rainfall events through probabilistic interpretation of IDF curves and the uncertainties in the landslide model with the Monte Carlo method. Compared to results based on only intense rainfall events, the proposed framework leads to a lower increase in the probability of landslide initiation and landslide-susceptible extents due to climate change.

A flexible framework for coding and predicting acute hypotensive episodes using Markov chains

Over the past decade, the prediction of acute hypotensive episodes (AHEs) using computational models has gained significant attention. AHEs in patients admitted to intensive care units can lead to severe or life-threatening conditions. AHEs are defined as a drop in the mean arterial pressure (MAP) below a threshold during an observation period. However, adaptable AHE modeling approaches are required to account for patient-specific definitions caused by inter-patient variability. This study proposes a flexible three-stage framework for the AHE prediction problem capable of modeling different hypotension states. The initial stage involves encoding the MAP time series using the proposed scheme. A clustering process is then performed to determine the k≥2 hypotension states and transition probabilities between them. The proposed AHE prediction model is built using a cohort of 453 MAP waveforms from MIMIC-II. In the third stage, we use 173 MAP waveforms to validate the proposed prediction method. Given a patient’s MAP time series, we compute the initial probability distribution by considering (a) an encoded observation interval and (b) a similarity measure to determine the closest kth cluster (state) to the encoded interval. Based on the properties of the Markov process, we predict the most probable state for look-ahead times h ranging from 1 to 30 min. The proposed framework offers competitive performance for h=7 with an accuracy of 0.965, which is clinically relevant for medical practitioners. We also provide a comparative analysis to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, which exhibits a significant statistical difference (α=0.05) compared with other state-of-the-art methods.