ABSTRACT Scheduling significantly contributes to fatigue among high-speed rail (HSR) drivers, impacting both driving performance and safety. This study aims to analyse distinctiveness and evolutionary patterns of driver fatigue across different scheduling shifts, leveraging an HSR simulator and wearable devices. Through an extensive statistical examination, differences in most heart rate variability features were identified across shifts. The evolution of self-reported fatigue and physiological fatigue was investigated using a Markov chain and a hidden Markov model (HMM) that is extended using softmax regression, respectively. Results indicated a similarity in the initial fatigue state distribution and evolution trends across shifts, albeit with varying degrees of fluctuation. Morning shifts exhibited a higher likelihood of fatigue accumulation. The study revealed that even adequate pre-rest did not entirely counterbalance the impact of circadian rhythms. These findings may contribute to comprehending the temporal dynamics of driver fatigue evolution and offer insights for optimizing driver scheduling practices.