Prior Information Research Articles

Bayesian and non-bayesian inference for logistic-exponential distribution using improved adaptive type-II progressively censored data.

Improved adaptive type-II progressive censoring schemes (IAT-II PCS) are increasingly being used to estimate parameters and reliability characteristics of lifetime distributions, leading to more accurate and reliable estimates. The logistic exponential distribution (LED), a flexible distribution with five hazard rate forms, is employed in several fields, including lifetime, financial, and environmental data. This research aims to enhance the accuracy and reliability estimation capabilities for the logistic exponential distribution under IAT-II PCS. By developing novel statistical inference methods, we can better understand the behavior of failure times, allow for more accurate decision-making, and improve the overall reliability of the model. In this research, we consider both classical and Bayesian techniques. The classical technique involves constructing maximum likelihood estimators of the model parameters and their asymptotic covariance matrix, followed by estimating the distribution's reliability using survival and hazard functions. The delta approach is used to create estimated confidence intervals for the model parameters. In the Bayesian technique, prior information about the LED parameters is used to estimate the posterior distribution of the parameters, which is derived using Bayes' theorem. The model's reliability is determined by computing the posterior predictive distribution of the survival or hazard functions. Extensive simulation studies and real-data applications assess the effectiveness of the proposed methods and evaluate their performance against existing methods.

Improved Variable Structure Interacting Multimodels for Target Trajectory Tracking and Extrapolation

To improve the lengthy computation time of conventional variable structure interacting multiple model (VSIMM) algorithm and increase the precision of target prediction and extrapolation, the target state and flight intent information captured by the Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) are used as the model’s prior information; combining this information with VSIMM theoretical framework, we purpose an intent variable structure interacting multiple model (INT-VSIMM) algorithm. Firstly, the motion pattern of the target in the flight phase of the flight path is decomposed, and complete sets of motion models are established. Secondly, according to the principle of directed graph switching, a model set switching method is designed, which is mainly based on “hard” switching and supplemented by “soft” switching. Finally, the INT-VSIMM algorithm is used to track the trajectory of the target aircraft, and short-term trajectory extrapolation is performed based on the target state estimation. The simulation results show that the target tracking performance computational time based on the INT-VSIMM algorithm is superior to the comparative existing methods, and the extrapolated trajectory has less error in the short term, which can satisfy the needs of conflict detection.

Optimizing one-axis twists for variational Bayesian quantum metrology

Quantum metrology and sensing seek advantages in estimating an unknown parameter of some quantum state or channel, using entanglement such as spin squeezing produced by one-axis twists or other quantum resources. In particular, qubit phase estimation, or rotation sensing, appears as a ubiquitous problem with applications to electric field sensing, magnetometry, atomic clocks, and gyroscopes. By adopting the Bayesian formalism to the phase estimation problem to account for limited initial knowledge about the value of the phase, we formulate variational metrology and treat the state preparation (or encoding) and measurement (or decoding) procedures as parameterized quantum circuits. It is important to understand how effective various parametrized protocols are as well as how robust they are to the effects of complex noise such as spatially correlated noise. First, we propose a family of parametrized encoding and decoding protocols called arbitrary-axis twist ansatzes, and show that it can lead to a substantial reduction in the number of one-axis twists needed to achieve a target estimation error. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the estimation error associated with these strategies decreases with system size in a faster manner than classical (or no-twist) protocols, even in the less-explored regimes where the prior information is limited. Last, using a polynomial-sized tensor network algorithm, we numerically analyze practical variational metrology beyond the symmetric subspace of a collective spin and find that quantum advantage persists for the arbitrary-axis twist ansatzes with a few one-axis twists and smaller total twisting angles for practically relevant noise levels. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Hierarchical modelling of variance components makes analysis of resolvable incomplete block designs more efficient

The standard approach to variance component estimation in linear mixed models for alpha designs is the residual maximum likelihood (REML) method. One drawback of the REML method in the context of incomplete block designs is that the block variance may be estimated as zero, which can compromise the recovery of inter-block information and hence reduce the accuracy of treatment effects estimation. Due to the development of statistical and computational methods, there is an increasing interest in adopting hierarchical approaches to analysis. In order to increase the precision of the analysis of individual trials laid out as alpha designs, we here make a proposal to create an objectively informed prior distribution for variance components for replicates, blocks and plots, based on the results of previous (historical) trials. We propose different modelling approaches for the prior distributions and evaluate the effectiveness of the hierarchical approach compared to the REML method, which is classically used for analysing individual trials in two-stage approaches for multi-environment trials.

Bayesian risk prediction model: An accessible strategy to predict cadmium contamination risk in wheat grain grown in alkaline soils

Excessive cadmium (Cd) concentration in wheat grain is becoming a widespread concern in China. Considering the complexity of Cd transfer in the soil-wheat system, how the Cd risk in wheat grain be accurately predicted from the limited details available is of great significance for the risk management of Cd. Bayes' theory could leverage existing data by combining prior information and observational data, providing a promising strategy with which to calculate a more robust posterior probability of a grain sample exceeding the food safety standard (FSS) for Cd (0.1 mg kg−1). In the current study, a risk prediction model, based on Bayes’ theory, was established to achieve a more accurate prediction of the wheat grain Cd risk from a limited number of soil parameters. The risk prediction model could predict the risk probability of wheat grain with a Cd concentration exceeding the FSS under a given soil concentration of either total Cd or diethylenetriaminepentaacetic acid (DTPA)-extractable Cd. Soil total Cd concentration proved to be a better variable for the model with greater predictive accuracy. The model predicted that fewer than 5% of the wheat grain would have a Cd concentration exceeding the FSS when grown in soil with a total Cd concentration of less than 0.299 mg kg−1. The risk probability rose significantly to 50% when the soil total Cd reached 0.778 mg kg−1. The accuracy of the model was greater than the widely applied multiple linear regression model, whereas previously published data from similar soil conditions also confirmed that the Bayesian model could predict wheat Cd risk with minimal error. The proposed model provides an accurate, accessible and cost-effective methodology for predicting Cd risk in wheat grown in alkaline soils before harvest. The wider application to other soil conditions, crops or contaminants using the Bayesian model is also promising for risk management authorities.

Study of strength and toughness in pearlitic wheel steel via microstructural alteration

The present study investigates a thorough effect of composition, processing, and microstructure on the mechanical property counterpart of pearlitic wheel steel. Optical and scanning electron microscopes along with the ImageJ software are used to capture and quantify the microstructures. Mechanical properties such as hardness, tensile properties, and fracture toughness (K1 C) were measured for all the studied steel. The chemical composition along with the heat treatment parameters are varied in the plant scale processing schedule. It was observed that the volume fraction of ferrite, prior austenite grain (PAG) size and distribution, and pearlite hardness are the most important factors, affecting the strength-toughness combination in the wheel steel. The carbon equivalent and cooling rate are two important factors for the enhancement of tensile strength. The fracture surface investigated under the electron microscope represents the ductile ridges along with the cleavage facets owing to the presence of ferrite allotriomorphs along the PAG and pearlite matrix, respectively. The crack study in the secondary fracture plane shows that the deflection and arrest of cracks were taking place preferentially in the ferrite grain boundaries as well as non-lamellar pearlitic domains.

Comparative Mitogenome of Phylogenetic Relationships and Divergence Time Analysis within Potamanthidae (Insecta: Ephemeroptera).

Potamanthidae belongs to the superfamily Ephemeroidea but has no complete mt genome released in the NCBI (except for two unchecked and one partial mt genome). Since the sister clade to Potamanthidae has always been controversial, we sequenced seven mt genomes of Potamanthidae (two species from Rhoenanthus and five species from Potamanthus) in order to rebuild the phylogenetic relationships of Potamanthidae in this study. The divergence time of Potamanthidae was also investigated by utilizing five fossil calibration points because of the indeterminate origin time. In addition, because Rhoenanthus coreanus and Potamanthus luteus are always in low-temperature environments, we aimed to explore whether these two species were under positive selection at the mt genome level. Amongst the 13 PCGs, CGA was used as the start codon in COX1, whereas other genes conformed to initiating with an ATN start codon. From this analysis, UUA (L), AUU (I), and UUU (F) had the highest usage. Furthermore, the DHU arm was absent in the secondary structure of S1 in all species. By combining the 13 PCGs and 2 rRNAs, we reconstructed the phylogenetic relationship of Potamanthidae within Ephemeroptera. The monophyly of Potamanthidae and the monophyly of Rhoenanthus and Potamanthus were supported in the results. The phylogenetic relationship of Potamanthidae + (Ephemeridae + Polymitarcyidae) was also recovered with a high prior probability. The divergence times of Potamanthidae were traced to be 90.44 Mya (95% HPD, 62.80-121.74 Mya), and the divergence times of Rhoenanthus and Potamanthus originated at approximately 64.77 Mya (95% HPD, 43.82-88.68 Mya), thus belonging to the late Pliocene Epoch or early Miocene Epoch. In addition, the data indicated that R. coreanus was under negative selection and that ATP8 and ND2 in Potamanthidae had a high evolutionary rate.

3D shear wave velocity imaging of the subsurface structure of granite rocks in the arid climate of Pan de Azúcar, Chile, revealed by Bayesian inversion of HVSR curves

Abstract. Seismic methods are emerging as efficient tools for imaging the subsurface to investigate the weathering zone. The structure of the weathering zone can be identified by differing shear wave velocities as various weathering processes will alter the properties of rocks. Currently, 3D subsurface modelling of the weathering zone is gaining increasing importance as results allow the identification of the weathering imprint in the subsurface not only from top to bottom but also in three dimensions. We investigated the 3D weathering structure of monzogranite bedrock near the Pan de Azúcar National Park (Atacama Desert, northern Chile), where the weathering is weak due to the arid climate conditions. We set up an array measurement that records seismic ambient noise, which we used to extract the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) curves. The curves were then used to invert for 1D shear wave velocity (Vs) models, which we then used to compile a pseudo-3D model of the subsurface structure in our study area. To invert the 1D Vs model, we applied a transdimensional hierarchical Bayesian inversion scheme, allowing us to invert the HVSR curve with minimal prior information. The resulting 3D model allowed us to image the granite gradient from the surface down to ca. 50 m depth and confirmed the presence of dikes of mafic composition intruding the granite. We identified three main zones of fractured granite, altered granite, and the granite bedrock in addition to the mafic dikes with relatively higher Vs. The fractured granite layer was identified with Vs of 1.4 km s−1 at 30–40 m depth, while the granite bedrock was delineated with Vs of 2.5 km s−1 and a depth range between 10 and 50 m depth. We compared the resulting subsurface structure to other sites in the Chilean coastal cordillera located in various climatic conditions and found that the weathering depth and structure at a given location depend on a complex interaction between surface processes such as precipitation rate, tectonic uplift and fracturing, and erosion. Moreover, these local geological features such as the intrusion of mafic dikes can create significant spatial variations to the weathering structure and therefore emphasize the importance of 3D imaging of the weathering structure. The imaged structure of the subsurface in Pan de Azúcar provides the unique opportunity to image the heterogeneities of a rock preconditioned for weathering but one that has never experienced extensive weathering given the absence of precipitation.

Detection of data tampering attack in FIR system identification with binary-valued observations

This paper addresses the security detection of data tampering attack in identification of finite impulse response systems with quantized observations. First, we designed a detection algorithm for data tampering attack based on the prior information of the system and gave its online detection form. Second, the introduction of the concepts of the false judgment rate and the missed judgment rate gave a specific evaluation index for the performance of the detection algorithm. Considering the high nonlinearity of binary quantized and the difficulty of obtaining distribution function, we provided calculation methods for two indexes and gave expressions under large samples. Then, the effects of the data length, the prior information of the system parameter, and the attack strategy on the detection algorithm are discussed in this paper. Finally, the theoretical results are verified by numerical simulation.

A unified Bayesian framework for bias adjustment in multiple comparisons from clinical trials.

In clinical trials, multiple comparisons arising from various treatments/doses, subgroups, or endpoints are common. Typically, trial teams focus on the comparison showing the largest observed treatment effect, often involving a specific treatment pair and endpoint within a subgroup. These findings frequently lead to follow-up pivotal studies, many of which do not confirm the initial positive results. Selection bias occurs when the most promising treatment, subgroup, or endpoint is chosen for further development, potentially skewing subsequent investigations. Such bias can be defined as the deviation in the observed treatment effects from the underlying truth. In this article, we propose a general and unified Bayesian framework to address selection bias in clinical trials with multiple comparisons. Our approach does not require a priori specification of a parametric distribution for the prior, offering a more flexible and generalized solution. The proposed method facilitates a more accurate interpretation of clinical trial results by adjusting for such selection bias. Through simulation studies, we compared several methods and demonstrated their superior performance over the normal shrinkage estimator. We recommended the use of Bayesian Model Averaging estimator averaging over Gaussian Mixture Models as the prior distribution based on its performance and flexibility. We applied the method to a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study investigating the cardiovascular effects of dulaglutide.

VIS-SLAM: A Real-Time Dynamic SLAM Algorithm Based on the Fusion of Visual, Inertial, and Semantic Information

A deep learning-based Visual Inertial SLAM technique is proposed in this paper to ensure accurate autonomous localization of mobile robots in environments with dynamic objects. Addressing the limitations of real-time performance in deep learning algorithms and the poor robustness of pure visual geometry algorithms, this paper presents a deep learning-based Visual Inertial SLAM technique. Firstly, a non-blocking model is designed to extract semantic information from images. Then, a motion probability hierarchy model is proposed to obtain prior motion probabilities of feature points. For image frames without semantic information, a motion probability propagation model is designed to determine the prior motion probabilities of feature points. Furthermore, considering that the output of inertial measurements is unaffected by dynamic objects, this paper integrates inertial measurement information to improve the estimation accuracy of feature point motion probabilities. An adaptive threshold-based motion probability estimation method is proposed, and finally, the positioning accuracy is enhanced by eliminating feature points with excessively high motion probabilities. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm achieves accurate localization in dynamic environments while maintaining real-time performance.

Bayesian network modelling of phosphorus pollution in agricultural catchments with high-resolution data

A Bayesian Belief Network was developed to simulate phosphorus (P) loss in an Irish agricultural catchment. Septic tanks and farmyards were included to represent all P sources and assess their effect on model performance. Bayesian priors were defined using daily discharge and turbidity, high-resolution soil P data, expert opinion, and literature. Calibration was done against seven years of daily Total Reactive P concentrations. Model performance was assessed using percentage bias, summary statistics, and visually comparing distributions. Bias was within acceptable ranges, the model predicted mean and median P concentrations within the data error, with simulated distributions more variable than the observations. Considering the risk of exceeding regulatory standards, predictions showed lower P losses than observations, likely due to simulated distributions being left-skewed. We discuss model advantages and limitations, the benefits of explicitly representing uncertainty, and priorities for data collection to fill knowledge gaps present even in a highly monitored catchment.

Resolution enhancement for a seismic velocity model using machine learning

Summary To address complex subsurface structures, a high-resolution velocity model must be constructed. Conventionally, algorithms such as full waveform inversion (FWI) have been used to derive accurate high-resolution velocity structures, but obstacles such as high computational costs remain. Therefore, we propose a high-resolution U-NET (HR U-NET) machine learning model to derive a high-resolution velocity model from a low-resolution velocity model. The low-resolution velocity model and migration data obtained through the corresponding velocity information were used as input data for training. In addition, we tried to improve the accuracy of the high-resolution velocity model by using prior information containing accurate velocity values. A prior model generated through geophysical logging data and a weight model including the reliability information of the prior model were also utilized. Therefore, the HR U-NET model was trained using the low-resolution velocity model, the migration data, the prior model, and the weight model. Numerical experiments conducted using synthetic and field data demonstrated that the proposed model could accurately construct a high-resolution velocity model and verified that the prior model and weight model play important roles in the training process. Additionally, we confirmed that the proposed method derived almost similar results using only 8.2 per cent of the computational cost of the conventional inversion method. In other words, there is an advantage that it is possible to predict high-resolution velocity information more efficiently in terms of computational cost.

Impact of a health-system specialty pharmacy on time to upadacitinib initiation.

In an effort to expedite the publication of articles, AJHP is posting manuscripts online as soon as possible after acceptance. Accepted manuscripts have been peer-reviewed and copyedited, but are posted online before technical formatting and author proofing. These manuscripts are not the final version of record and will be replaced with the final article (formatted per AJHP style and proofed by the authors) at a later time. Upadacitinib has been found to improve symptoms as early as day 1 in patients with inflammatory bowel disease. As a result, early and timely initiation of upadacitinib is paramount to prevent hospital admission for an acute flare. The purpose of this study was to identify the time to initiation of upadacitinib, comparing external specialty pharmacies (ESPs) to a health-system specialty pharmacy (HSSP). This was a single-center, retrospective study at the University of Chicago Medicine (UCM) Inflammatory Bowel Disease Center and included patients initiated on upadacitinib between March 1, 2022, and April 1, 2023. Data collected included demographics, prior authorization information, appeal information, insurance type, date the prescription was sent, and date the patient initiated therapy (patients were called to confirm the date). The primary outcome evaluated was the days from prescribing to patient initiation. Secondary outcomes included the total time to initiation and the time to notification from insurance regarding determination of a prior authorization or appeal. Patients were excluded if they were lost to follow-up, initiated therapy through alternative means, or had previously initiated upadacitinib. A total of 107 patients were initiated on upadacitinib during the study period (n = 18 through the UCM HSSP, n = 89 through an ESP). The median number of days to patient initiation was 3 days (interquartile range, 3-6 days) for the UCM specialty pharmacy vs 9 days (interquartile range, 4-13 days) for ESPs (P = 0.003). A total of 88.9% of patients filling through the UCM specialty pharmacy initiated upadacitinib within 7 days, compared to 47.2% of patients filling through an ESP (P = 0.001). Seven patients needed earlier initiation of therapy to prevent hospital admission. This study validates the ability of HSSPs to initiate therapies earlier than ESPs with a particular focus on upadacitinib.

Rapid in-situ calibration of computational micro-spectrometer with few-shot meta-learning

Computational micro-spectrometers comprised of detector arrays and encoding structure arrays, such as on-chip Fabry-Perot (FP) cavity filters, have great potential in many in-situ applications owing to their compact size and snapshot imaging ability. Given manufacturing deviation and environmental influence are inevitable, easy and effective calibration for spectrometer is necessary, especially for in-situ applications. Currently calibration strategies based on iterative algorithms or neural networks require accurate measurements of pixel-level (spectral) encoding functions through monochromator or large amounts of standard samples. These procedures are time-consuming and expensive, thereby impeding in-situ applications. Meta-learning algorithms with few-shot learning ability can address this challenge by incorporating the prior knowledge in the simulated dataset. In this work, we propose a meta-learning algorithm free of measuring encoding function or large amounts of standard samples to calibrate a micro-spectrometer with manufacturing deviation effectively. Our micro-spectrometer comprises 16 types of FP filters covering a wavelength range of 550-720 nm. The center wavelength of each filter type deviates from the design up to 6 nm. After calibration with 15 different color data, the average reconstruction error on the test dataset decreased from 7.2 × 10 − 3 to 1.2 × 10 − 3, and further decreased to 9.4 × 10 − 4 when the calibration data increased to 24. The performance is comparable to algorithms trained with measured encoding function both in reconstruction error and generalization ability. We estimated that the cost of in-situ calibration through reflectance measurements of color chart decreased to one percent of the cost through monochromator measurements. By exploiting prior deviation information in simulation data with meta-learning, the efficiency and cost of calibration are significantly improved, thereby facilitating the large-scale production and in-situ application of micro-spectrometers.

Joint identification of groundwater pollution source information, model parameters, and boundary conditions based on a novel ES-MDA with a wheel battle strategy

Groundwater pollution source identification (GPSI) is an important prerequisite for pollution remediation and risk assessment. However, an accurate GPSI is usually difficult to achieve due to the need to simultaneously consider practical problems and theoretical research. For practical problems, the boundary conditions, especially the concentration boundary, are often given as known constants through prior information. However, in most practical situations, the boundary conditions are complex and cannot be accurately estimated in advance, which leads to the distortion of the final identification results. Therefore, this study focused on the concentration boundary, and first proposed to jointly identify three types of unknown variables (source information, model parameters, and boundary conditions) to ensure that the identification results had more practical value. For theoretical research, as the number of unknown variable types increases, the difficulty of solving the inverse problem often increases, which may lead to inaccurate inversion results. Thus, a novel ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ES-MDA) with a wheel battle strategy was proposed, enhancing the identification accuracy. We designed two cases to verify the effectiveness and practicality of the above ideas: a low-dimensional Case 1 (including four different synthetic scenarios: three scenarios with unknown boundary conditions under three concentration boundary modes and a scenario with known boundary conditions) and a high-dimensional complex Case 2. Identifying the boundary conditions in GPSI was found to be of great significance. Compared to the standard ES-MDA method, the ES-MDA with a wheel battle strategy proposed here could improve the inversion accuracy, and had certain effectiveness and practicality.

Locating clustered seismicity using Distance Geometry Solvers: applications for sparse and single-borehole DAS networks

Summary The determination of seismic event locations with sparse networks or single-borehole systems remains a significant challenge in observational seismology. Leveraging the advantages of the location approach HADES (eartHquake locAtion via Distance gEometry Solvers), which was initially developed for locating clustered seismicity recorded at two stations, through the solution of a Distance Geometry Problem, we present here an improved version of the methodology: HADES-R (HADES-Relative). Where HADES previously needed a minimum of 4 absolutely located master events, HADES-R solves a least-squares problem to find the relative inter-event distances in the cluster, and uses only a single master event to find the locations of all events, and subsequently applies rotational optimizer to find the cluster orientation. It can leverage iterative station combinations if multiple receivers are available, to describe the cluster shape and orientation uncertainty with a bootstrap approach. The improved method requires P- and S-phase arrival picks, a homogeneous velocity model, a single master event with a known location, and an estimate of the cluster width. The approach is benchmarked on the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence recorded at two stations, and applied to two seismic clusters at the FORGE geothermal test site in Utah, USA, with a microseismic monitoring scenario with a DAS in a vertical borehole. Traditional procedures struggle in these settings due to the ill-posed network configuration. The azimuthal ambiguity in such a scenario is partially overcome by the assumption that all events belong to the same cluster around the master event and a cluster width estimate. We are able to find the cluster shape in both cases, although the orientation remains uncertain. HADES-R contributes to an efficient way to locate multiple events simultaneously with minimal prior information. The method’s ability to constrain the cluster shape and location with only one well-located event offers promising implications, especially for environments where limited or specialised instrumentation is in use.

The data-driven rogue waves of the Hirota equation by using Mix-training PINNs approach

Recently, solving differential equations by deep neural networks has attracted lots of attention, however, when the solution of differential equations has localized areas such as the rogue waves, the classical physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) cannot guarantee its prediction accuracy. In this paper, we propose two neural networks methods: mix-training physics-informed neural networks (MTPINNs) and prior information mix-training physics-informed neural networks (PMTPINNs), two deep learning models with more approximation ability based on PINNs. A series of numerical experiments show that the learning efficiency and absolute error accuracy of our proposed model can be improved significantly. The PMTPINNs model can so as to make up for the shortcomings of PINNs in this aspect. Furthermore, by testing the robustness of these two methods, for two kinds of rogue waves of the Hirota equation, it is surprising that these models also have good performance and thereby may provide more possibilities for solving mathematical physics problems better.

Fusing Repeated Cross-Sectional Revealed Preference Datasets based on Rational Inattention Theory: Accounting for Changing Modal Preferences

To address the methodological limitation of cross-sectional studies and the data constraints of longitudinal/panel studies, this paper presents a model-based method to fuse repeated cross-sectional travel survey data based on the theory of rational inattention (RI) in discrete choice modeling. In the proposed framework, older cross-sectional data are used to model the prior probability of choice alternatives, and more recent cross-sectional data are used to capture conditional heterogeneous choices. The fusion method is theoretically more robust and computationally less burdensome than existing data pooling techniques. The method is empirically tested using data from two cycles of a large-sample post-secondary student travel survey in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area to investigate the commuting mode choices of post-secondary students. Parameter estimates of the RI-based multinomial logit (MNL) model indicate that the proposed method can generate behaviorally consistent results. Validation of the estimated model using a holdout sample indicates its improved forecasting performance compared with the classical random utility maximizing MNL model. The fusion method can be extended to more than two cycles of repeated cross-sectional data by updating the prior probabilities whenever new cross-sectional data become available. Thus, the study presents a continuous framework for fusing information from multiple time points using repeated cross-sectional datasets to capture preference evolution better and enhance the forecasting robustness of discrete choice models.

Kernel-Based Multivariate Nonparametric CUSUM Multi-Chart for Detection of Abrupt Changes

In many cases, it is difficult to obtain precise distributional information on multivariate sequences. Therefore, there is a need to propose nonparametric methods for monitoring multivariate sequences. This article discusses the multivariate change detection problem and utilizes the kernel function as the statistic to construct the nonparametric Multivariate Cumulative Sum multi-chart, under the assumption that there is prior information about the abrupt changes. Through theoretical and numerical analysis, we show that the proposed control chart is more effective compared to other existing control charts. The good monitoring effect of this method demonstrates a strong potential for application.