Inform Management Decisions Research Articles

Perceived Obstacles in Land Use Change for Hybrid Sweetgum Plantations: Landowner Opinions from the South Central United States

Abstract Hybrid sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua × L. formosana) has received considerable attention as a potential feedstock for traditional and nontraditional forest-based enterprises due to its fast growth and large specific gravity. However, the perceptions of landowners are important to understand the degree of acceptance concerning land use change to consider this opportunity in the United States. We administered a survey instrument to three thousand landowners representing the states of Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Arkansas where hybrid sweetgum plantations would be feasible. A seemingly unrelated regression analysis was used to explore the attributes that may influence the environmental and economic obstacles in land use change for hybrid sweetgum plantations. Study results suggest that landowners who perceived higher importance of marketing aspects of hybrid sweetgum expressed greater economic concerns for land use change. In contrast, those having higher planted pine acres had higher environmental concerns about land use change. Female landowners were more concerned than their male counterparts. Landowners need access to accurate information from their trusted sources to make informed management decisions, especially when making decisions to adopt new opportunities such as hybrid sweetgum. Study Implications: Study results reveal the need for outreach to landowners in the south central United States, as many were not aware of fast-growing hardwood species such as hybrid sweetgum. Information on growth potential, economics, and management techniques can help facilitate the adoption of hybrid sweetgum. Field visits and peer-to-peer learning facilitated by early adopters can be effective strategies for outreach.

A new distribution and host record for the rare moth, Callioratis millari (Lepidoptera: Geometridae), and some ecological observations.

Callioratis millari Hampson (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) is a Critically Endangered moth endemic to South Africa. Despite extensive searches, it was previously known only from the Entumeni Nature Reserve in KwaZulu-Natal, where its larvae exclusively feed on the cycad Stangeria eriopus (Kunze) Baill (Cycadales: Stangeriaceae). In July 2022, a new population of C. millari was discovered in the Kabouga section of Addo Elephant National Park in the Eastern Cape. Larvae of C. millari were feeding on the cycad Encephalartos caffer (Thunb.) Lehm (Cycadales: Zamiaceae), which also constitutes a new host record. In June 2023, we determined larval incidence and herbivory at this new locality, offering insights into the ecological requirements of C. millari. Known C. millari localities, although ecologically different, share low altitudes (700-950 m a.s.l.), moderate to high rainfall, and grassy habitats with sparse woody cover. A total of 59 larvae were counted in Kabouga, mostly in the fifth and sixth (final) instars. Herbivory incidence was lower on smaller plants and those covered by other vegetation. The flight period of adult C. millari likely occurs between mid-March and April in Kabouga, but further investigation is needed to clarify this. The peak period of larval occurrence in Kabouga occurs during the driest and coldest months of the year (May-July). Considering limited habitat availability, host plant poaching, and the risk of untimely fires, the species should be considered highly threatened. This study adds to our understanding of the biology of C. millari and provides information on its ecological requirements and may contribute to making informed management decisions.

Imperfect detection and misidentification affect inferences from data informing water operation decisions

AbstractObjectiveManagers can modify river flow regimes using fish monitoring data to minimize impacts from water management infrastructure. For example, operation of the gate‐controlled Delta Cross Channel (DCC) in California can negatively affect the endangered Sacramento River winter‐run Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha. Although guidelines have been developed for DCC operations by using real‐time juvenile fish sampling count data, there is uncertainty about how environmental conditions influence fish occupancy and the extent to which those relationships are affected by sampling and identification error.MethodsWe evaluated the effect of environmental conditions, imperfect detection, and misidentification error on salmon occupancy by analyzing data using hierarchical multistate occupancy models. A total of 14,147 trawl tows and beach seine hauls were conducted on 1058 sampling days between October and December from 1996 to 2019. During these surveys, 2803 juvenile winter‐run Chinook Salmon were identified, and approximately 29% of the sampling days had at least one winter‐run juvenile detected.ResultThe probability of misidentifying an individual juvenile winter‐run Chinook Salmon in the field was estimated to be 0.056 based on fish identification examinations and genetic sampling. Occupancy varied considerably and was related to flow characteristics, water clarity, weather, time of year, and whether occupancy was detected during the previous sampling day. However, these relationships and their significance changed considerably when accounting for imperfect detection and the probability of misidentifying individual juvenile salmon. Detection was <0.3 under average sampling conditions during a single sample and was influenced by flow, water clarity, site, and volume sampled.ConclusionOur modeling results indicate that DCC gate closure decisions could occur on fewer days when imperfect detection and misidentification error are not accounted for. These findings demonstrate the need to account for identification and detection error while using monitoring data to assess factors influencing fish occupancy and inform future management decisions.

Comparative Risk Assessment of Cyber Threats Based on Average and Fuzzy Set Theory

Applied results of scientific analysis should be the key focus of modern security research. A comparative analysis of research results obtained using different methods, as an applied task, forms a broader basis for interpreting the results and substantiating the conclusions. A social survey and expert opinion research were conducted to implement the general concept of strategic analysis of cybersecurity in Ukraine. Using the method based on determining the average value in a certain set of estimates, as well as the method based on the theory of fuzzy sets, the risks of spreading certain cyber threats in Ukraine were assessed. The results were compared. Although the use of different measurement methods led to some differences in quantitative risk indicators, the comparative analysis of the ratio of the level of different cyber threats did not change significantly. At the same time, the fuzzy set method provided more flexible interpretation of the results to characterize cyber threats in terms of their upward or downward trend. In general, the combined approach to cyber threat risk assessment can become an important risk management tool, as it takes advantage of different methods and allows for a deeper understanding of the current situation and the formation of more informed management decisions.

Bacterial community assessment of drinking water and downstream distribution systems in highland localities of Ecuador.

Bacterial communities in drinking water provide a gauge to measure quality and confer insights into public health. In contrast to urban systems, water treatment in rural areas is not adequately monitored and could become a health risk. We performed 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing to analyze the microbiome present in the water treatment plants at two rural communities, one city, and the downstream water for human consumption in schools and reservoirs in the Andean highlands of Ecuador. We tested the effect of water treatment on the diversity and composition of bacterial communities. A set of physicochemical variables in the sampled water was evaluated and correlated with the structure of the observed bacterial communities. Predominant bacteria in the analyzed communities belonged to Proteobacteria and Actinobacteria. The Sphingobium genus, a chlorine resistance group, was particularly abundant. Of health concern in drinking water reservoirs were Fusobacteriaceae, Lachnospiraceae, and Ruminococcaceae; these families are associated with human and poultry fecal contamination. We propose the latter families as relevant biomarkers for establishing local standards for the monitoring of potable water systems in highlands of Ecuador. Our assessment of bacterial community composition in water systems in the Ecuadorian highlands provides a technical background to inform management decisions.

Individual variation in home‐range across an ocean basin and links to habitat quality and management

Abstract Overgrazing may lead to management intervention (e.g. culling, animal relocation) to try and prevent habitat destruction. Overgrazing leading to seagrass meadow collapse has been recorded for green turtles (Chelonia mydas) at several sites around the world, although the generality of this phenomenon and the need for intervention to prevent widespread seagrass destruction is unknown. Where turtles have degraded seagrass meadows, home‐ranges are expected to be large and turtles will relocate as meadows are destroyed. We used high resolution Fastloc GPS tracking (n = 32 individuals, mean = 171 days per individual, SD = 99) to record the home‐range of adult green turtles at foraging sites spanning 4523 km of longitude across the Western Indian Ocean. Contrary to predictions if overgrazing was occurring, we recorded small home‐ranges and turtles rarely relocated their daytime foraging areas. Based on all locations received, the mean 50% and 95% utilisation distributions (UD50 and UD95) were 2.4 km2 (SD = 2.7) and 15.4 km2 (SD = 17.7). Space use was often particularly small at night, when turtles rest, averaging 11% of the overall space use with the mean night‐time UD50 and UD95 being 0.15 km2 (SD = 0.1) and 1.1 km2 (SD = 0.8), respectively. Variation in home‐range across individuals was not influenced by the data volume (number of locations per day, duration of tracking) or animal size (carapace length) but increased significantly as the distance between the centre of day and night areas increased, that is individuals that had a larger daily commute had the larger home‐ranges. Synthesis and applications. Comparisons with home‐range estimates from 16 previous studies, showed that those we recorded are among the smallest for adult green turtles globally. These results suggest that despite population size increases at several major nesting sites in the Western Indian Ocean, green turtles are generally not destroying the seagrass meadows on which they forage and so management intervention to prevent overgrazing is not needed. In this way, our work illustrates how movement data may inform management decisions for green turtles. Further targeted work on the seagrass ecosystem health could help confirm this suggestion.

Methodology for Monitoring Border Crossing Delays with Connected Vehicle Data: United States and Mexico Land Crossings Case Study

International trade is a critical part of the United States economy. Land border crossings between the United States and Mexico accounts for a large proportion of the USD 779 billion in trade between these two countries. Monitoring and managing the operations of these land border crossings is critical for ensuring efficient trade and providing appropriate security. This paper examines the opportunity to use connected vehicle data to monitor the travel time delay of passenger vehicles crossing the border for system level assessment across 26 border crossing locations over an analysis period of 25 days in August 2020. A sample size of 51,341 trips from the US to Mexico and 41,708 trips from Mexico to the US were used in this study. Furthermore, 97% trips to the US and 76% trips to Mexico experienced delays. The average delay was 34 min for trips to the US compared to only 2 min for trips to Mexico. In terms of the predictability of border crossing times, there was also substantial variation by direction. The interquartile range of vehicle delay from the US to Mexico was 2 min, while the interquartile range of delay for vehicles travelling from Mexico to the US was 46 min. Border crossings were also ranked using four performance metrics—trip counts, median delay, delayed trip counts and total delays in vehicle hours. Methods for summarizing delay trends by time of the day and day of the week to identify time windows of interest are also presented. Land border crossing operations have a significant influence on security and economic efficiency. We believe the techniques presented in this paper provide a scalable methodology for providing near real-time factual data on border crossing delays that provide important information for land border transport-managing stakeholders to make informed management decisions that balance security and economic efficiency.

Development and evaluation of a novel single nucleotide polymorphism panel for North American bison.

Genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping platforms have become increasingly popular in characterizing livestock and wildlife populations, replacing traditional methods such as microsatellite fragment analysis. Herein, we report the development and evaluation of a novel bison SNP panel for population management and conservation. Initially, 2474 autosomal SNPs were selected from existing bison whole-genome sequences and variable sites among bison on the GGSP bovine 50K Chip, based on minor allele frequency, data completeness, and chromosome location. Additionally, 20 mitochondrial SNPs were chosen to identify known mitochondrial haplotypes in bison according to previous research. The SNPs were further evaluated using genotyping-by-sequencing with 190 bison, representing the historical lineages that survived the major population crash of the late 1800s. Variants with high potential for genotyping error were filtered out, and the remaining SNPs were placed on a custom Illumina™ array. The final panel consisting of 798 autosomal and 13 mitochondrial SNPs was used to establish baseline genetic parameters, compare populations, and assign mitochondrial haplotypes in 995 bison across ten populations. These SNPs were also found to be highly informative for individual animal identification and parentage assignment. This SNP panel provides a powerful new method to establish a baseline for estimating genetic health of bison populations and a new tool for bison managers to make informed management decisions based on genetic information specific to their populations.

ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AS A BUSINESS MANAGEMENT TOOL

In today's dynamic business environment and intensified competition among companies, the study of financial stability and management efficiency is crucial for any successful organization. Therefore, the analysis of financial statements is a necessary tool for enterprises to make rational management decisions and achieve strategic goals. Additionally, financial analysis is essential in the context of increasing competition and market volatility. The capacity to promptly respond to changes in the economic environment and adapt strategies is increasingly crucial for ensuring enterprise efficiency. Financial statement analysis, in particular, enables companies to assess their financial strength, determine optimal development strategies and make informed decisions in a changing market environment. Financial statement analysis is a crucial aspect of successful management. It involves a systematic analysis of an enterprise's financial and economic activities, including its structure, dynamics, and effectiveness. The scientific literature reviewed in this paper emphasizes the significance of financial statement analysis as a tool for identifying risks, formulating management strategies, and enhancing financial stability. In particular, the article discusses various aspects of the analytical approach, methods and tools of analysis that can help companies make informed management decisions. This article aims to explore the role and importance of financial statement analysis in business management. It covers various aspects of the analytical approach, methods, and implements of analysis to determine how this tool can become crucial for making informed strategic and operational decisions.

Passive acoustic monitoring and automated detection of the American bullfrog

AbstractBiological invasions pose significant threats to biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Removal of introduced species is most successful when detected early. We evaluate the effectiveness of passive acoustics combined with automated recognition in detecting the invasive American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus). We applied this technique to two real-world monitoring programs aimed at determining the optimal time of day for monitoring the species in Europe, for which we recorded the species in Belgium and Italy; and for evaluating the effectiveness of BirdNET (a free and user-friendly automated recognizer) in analyzing a large dataset collected in Spain. BirdNET was highly effective in automatically detecting the bullfrog presence, with a detection rate (compared to visual inspection of sonograms) of 89.5% using default settings (85 of 95 recordings with known presence), and 95.8% with user-specific settings (91 of 95 recordings detected). The system showed remarkable precision, correctly identifying 99.7% (612 out of 614) of the verified predictions, and with only one mislabelled recording (predicted to be present when it was absent). The species’ vocal activity in Belgium and Italy was higher during the night compared to crepuscular periods. Recording analyses and output verification of the dataset collected in Spain was carried out in 3.8% of the recorded time, and resulted in significantly reduced effort compared to visual inspection. Our study highlights the effectiveness of this technique for remotely surveying the American bullfrog, making it a significantly potential tool for informing management decisions, particularly for the early detection of the species’ arrival in new areas.

Enhanced watershed status evaluation: Towards an integrated framework to assess fish habitat in forested watersheds using airborne laser scanning data

Sustainable forest management is a key component of modern forestry practices; however, an often-overlooked component is watershed health. To support forest management objectives, practitioners need information on the long-term health of riparian and stream ecosystems. Herein we present a framework to assess the condition of, and risks to, riparian and stream ecosystems within two forested fish-bearing watersheds, the Nahmint river and Artlish river, in British Columbia, Canada using airborne laser scanning (ALS) data. To do so, we first, compare the current British Columbia Tier 1 geographic information system (GIS)-based watershed condition evaluation protocol supplemented with a number of stream and watershed attributes derived from ALS data. Second, we use these ALS derived attributes to develop an enhanced Tier 2 watershed status evaluation framework that can be applied to stream reaches, which is a much finer spatial scale than is considered in current assessment approaches. We found that supplementing the existing watershed condition evaluation protocol with ALS-derived stream location, elevation, and canopy height information consistently increased the risk of a reduction in functioning condition being determined by the Tier 1 watershed assessment protocol. Further, we found that the Nahmint watershed had 28%, 65% and 7% of stream reaches with good, fair, and poor overall rankings of habitat condition, respectively. We conclude that ALS derived steam reach attributes can integrate into existing watershed evaluation protocols and provide detail that is critical to making informed management decisions and mitigating the cumulative effects on for example salmon bearing streams. As ALS data become increasingly available, value-added applications of these data, such as the integrated watershed assessment protocol demonstrated herein, can provide useful information to support forest management.

ОСОБЛИВОСТІ МЕНЕДЖМЕНТУ В УМОВАХ BANI-СВІТУ

Today, rapid changes have become the norm for domestic enterprises. They encourage them to search for new effective management tools and change the management paradigm in general. Under these circumstances, managing the development of an enterprise is an extremely challenging task for managers at all levels of management, as only those enterprises that are able to adapt their management system to new challenges and opportunities to improve performance will be able to survive. The modification of the basic elements of the management process is closely of the fundamental change in the defining parameters of the environment and the formation of new realities of business. The BANI world order requires the management of enterprises to develop new management models that would ensure rapid adaptation to new circumstances. The BANI world is an extremely unstable world order in which changes are chaotic under the influence of global systemic changes, and technology development is occurring at an extremely rapid pace. In order to survive in the BANI world, a business entity needs to adapt and reorient quickly, be flexible and anti-fragile, think non-linearly, and form emotional supports, including developing empathy and emotional intelligence. In this regard, the modern management paradigm should be based on a systemic and situational approach to management and managerial art. The main principles of effective work of a modern manager in the BANI world are: flexibility and adaptability; innovation; risk-orientation; dynamism; efficiency; complexity; stress resistance; care for the interests of society and environmental protection; impartiality of thinking. The most effective tools for ensuring the effective functioning of enterprises in the BANI world order are the Agile-approach, design thinking technology, and value approach. Changing business conditions require modern managers to have not only traditional "hard skills" and "soft skills" but also "meta skills". The main qualities required of a modern manager are adaptability; critical and creative thinking; empathy; high emotional and social intelligence; creativity; ability to build horizontal relationships with employees; and the ability to make informed management decisions in the face of limited information.

Examining the Social Costs of Carbon Emissions and the Ecosystem Service Value in Island Ecosystems: An Analysis of the Zhoushan Archipelago

Assessments of the ecosystem service value (ESV) and the social cost of carbon (SCC) inform national and government management decisions in the areas of human well-being and climate change mitigation and adaptation, respectively. Studying the correlation between the two provides a theoretical basis for low-carbon and high-quality regional development, achieving economic decarbonization, and improving human well-being. In this study, we take Zhoushan Archipelago as a case study, consider the ESV and SCC in Zhoushan Archipelago during the period 2010–2020, analyze their spatial development characteristics, and analyze the correlation between the two in time and space. The findings indicate that, with only a 1.5% change, the overall ESV in the Zhoushan Archipelago fell between 2010 and 2020. Conversely, there was a 1604.01 × 104 t increase in net carbon emissions and a quick 2452% increase in SCC. During the study period, a substantial positive association was found between ESV and SCC in the Zhoushan Archipelago, according to the global spatial correlation analysis of the two variables. It passed the test for p-value. This study presents a new potential way to solve the environmental and economic difficulties caused by climate change by providing a mechanism for quantitatively assessing the environment from the perspective of monetary worth. In order to improve the ecological security pattern and ease the burden of regional carbon emissions, it is vital to make use of regional advantages, maintain forests, and develop blue-carbon resources such as mudflats. It is a good idea to cooperate regionally with nearby metropolitan agglomerations. The study’s findings are crucial for advancing sustainable development planning in the Zhoushan Archipelago, both theoretically and practically.

Social acceptability of conservation interventions for flatback turtles: comparing expert and public perceptions

Sea turtles are facing significant threats, including anthropogenic warming, predation from feral animals, and sea level rise. While a range of intervention options are available, resource constraints and increasing time pressures means managers face the difficult task of prioritising options. To achieve successful conservation outcomes, managers are increasingly seeking to understand the social acceptability, as well as biological plausibility and economic feasibility, of these intervention options. Previous studies have used expert opinion as predictors of social acceptability, given their technical knowledge and experience implementing the interventions; however, the assumption that the social acceptability of interventions is the same for both the general public and experts is largely untested. We tested this assumption using surveys to assess the social acceptability of 24 interventions proposed for a population of flatback turtles Natator depressus in northwest Australia. Survey responses were collected from community members (residents) and experts (resource managers and researchers). Experts were asked to provide their own opinion of acceptability and how they perceived community members would rate intervention options. In general, residents ranked interventions that directly intervene with human behaviour or the environment as more acceptable than those that directly target turtles, while experts tended to favour direct turtle interventions. Experts incorrectly predicted that the community would not be influenced by the target of the intervention. Our findings highlight the importance of understanding social acceptability of interventions before implementation to inform management decisions and engagement and communication strategies, particularly when interventions might be controversial or restrict human behaviour directly.

Group structure and individual relationships of sanctuary-living Grauer's gorillas (Gorilla beringei graueri).

The study of individual social relationships and group structure provides insights into a species' natural history and can inform management decisions for animals living in human care. The Gorilla Rehabilitation and Conservation Education (GRACE) center provides permanent sanctuary for a group of 14 Grauer's gorillas (Gorilla beringei graueri), a critically endangered and poorly studied subspecies of the genus gorilla, in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. We monitored the association patterns of the gorillas at GRACE over eight months and here describe their individual relationships and group structure via multiple social network statistics. The group was highly connected but associations between individuals were weak on average. Social network metrics describe that an adult female was the most gregarious and socially central individual within the group. In fact, adult females were the most gregarious and socially central on average. Group level association patterns were significantly correlated over the study period and across observation types, suggesting the group was socially stable during the eight month study period. The data collected in this study were done so by GRACE caregivers as part of their daily husbandry routine and provided important insights into this group's behavior, ultimately informing on their care, welfare and future release considerations. The methodological approaches implemented here are easily scalable to any primate sanctuary or care facility seeking to use data to inform husbandry and management procedures. Lastly, our study is the first social network analysis to be conducted on Grauer's gorillas and provides tentative insights into the behavior of this poorly studied subspecies. Though more research is needed to evaluate if the findings here are reflective of this subspecies' natural history or the idiosyncrasies of the group.

Rates of Occult Invasive Disease in Patients With Biopsy-Proven Oral Cavity Squamous Cell Carcinoma in Situ

The likelihood that an oral cavity lesion harbors occult invasive disease after biopsy demonstrating carcinoma in situ (CIS) is unknown. While de-escalated treatment strategies may be appealing in the setting of CIS, knowing whether occult invasive disease may be present and its association with survival outcomes would lead to more informed management decisions. To evaluate rate of occult invasive disease and clinical outcomes in patients with oral cavity CIS. This was a retrospective population-based cohort study using the National Cancer Database and included adults with biopsy-proven oral cavity CIS as the first diagnosis of cancer between 2004 and 2020. Data were analyzed from October 10, 2022, to June 25, 2023. Surgical resection vs no surgery. Analyses calculated the rate of occult invasive disease identified on resection of a biopsy-proven CIS lesion. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression with odds ratios and 95% CIs were used to identify significant demographic and clinical characteristics associated with risk of occult invasion (age, year of diagnosis, sex, race and ethnicity, oral cavity subsite, and comorbidity status). Kaplan-Meier curves for overall survival (OS) were calculated for both unresected and resected cohorts (stratified by presence of occult invasive disease). A total of 1856 patients with oral cavity CIS were identified, with 122 who did not undergo surgery (median [range] age, 65 [26-90] years; 48 female individuals [39.3%] and 74 male individuals [60.7%]) and 1458 who underwent surgical resection and had documented pathology (median [range] age, 62 [21-90] years; 490 female individuals [33.6%] and 968 male individuals [66.4%]). Of the 1580 patients overall, 52 (3.3%) were Black; 39 (2.5%), Hispanic; 1365 (86.4%), White; and 124 (7.8%), other, not specified. Among those who proceeded with surgery with documented pathology, 408 patients (28.0%) were found to have occult invasive disease. Higher-risk features were present in 45 patients (11.0%) for final margin positivity, 16 patients (3.9%) for lymphovascular invasion, 13 patients (3.2%) for high-grade invasive disease, and 14 patients (3.4%) for nodal involvement. For those patients with occult disease, staging according to the American Joint Committee on Cancer's AJCC Cancer Staging Manual, eighth edition, was pT1 in 341 patients (83.6%), pT2 in 41 (10.0%), and pT3 or pT4 disease in 26 (6.4%). Factors associated with greater odds of occult invasive disease at resection were female sex, Black race, and alveolar ridge, vestibule, and retromolar subsite. With median 66-month follow-up, 5-year OS was 85.9% in patients who proceeded with surgical resection vs 59.7% in patients who did not undergo surgery (difference, 26.2%; 95% CI, 19.0%-33.4%). This cohort study assessed the risk of concurrent occult invasion with biopsy-proven CIS of the oral cavity, demonstrating that 28.0% had invasive disease at resection. Reassuringly, even in the setting of occult invasion, high-risk disease features were rare, and 5-year OS was nearly 80% with resection. The findings support the practice of definitive resection if feasible following biopsy demonstrating oral cavity CIS.

Broad-scale impacts of coastal mega-infrastructure project on obligatory inshore delphinids: A cautionary tale from Hong Kong

Inshore marine habitats experience considerable anthropogenic pressure, as this is where many adverse effects of human activities concentrate. In the rapidly-changing seascape of the Anthropocene, Hong Kong waters at the heart of world's fastest developing coastal region can serve as a preview-window into coastal seas of the future, with ever-growing anthropogenic footprint. Here, we quantify how large-scale coastal infrastructure projects can affect obligatory inshore cetaceans, bringing about population-level consequences that may compromise their long-term demographic viability. As a case in point, we look at the construction of world's longest sea crossing system and broad-scale demographic, social and spatial responses it has caused in a shallow-water delphinid, the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin (Sousa chinensis). Soon after the infrastructure project began, dolphins markedly altered their home range near construction sites such that these waters no longer functioned as dolphin core areas despite the apparent presence of prey, indicating that anthropogenic impacts outweighed foraging benefits. The contraction of key habitats has in turn led individuals to interact over spatially more constricted area, reshaping their group dynamics and social network. Although there was no apparent decline in dolphin numbers that could be detected with mark-recapture estimates, adult survival rates decreased drastically from 0.960 to 0.904, the lowest estimate for these animals anywhere across the region to date, notably below the previously estimated demographic threshold of their long-term persistence (0.955). It is apparent that during an advanced stage of this coastal infrastructure project, dolphins were under a major anthropogenic pressure that, if sustained, could be detrimental to their long-term persistence as a viable demographic unit. As effective conservation of species and habitats depends on informed management decisions, this study offers a valuable lesson in environmental risk assessment, underscoring the implications of human-induced rapid environmental change on obligatory inshore delphinids—sentinels of coastal habitats that are increasingly degraded in fast-changing coastal seas.

Prevalence of Avian Influenza Virus in Atypical Wild Birds Host Groups during an Outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Strain EA/AM H5N1

The global outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 Eurasian lineage goose/Guangdong clade 2.3.4.4b virus that was detected in North America in 2021 is the largest in history and has significantly impacted wild bird populations and domestic poultry across the continent. Synanthropic birds may play an important role in transmitting the virus laterally to other wild bird species and domestic poultry. Understanding the dynamics of HPAI in atypical, or nonreservoir, wild bird hosts may help inform management decisions and potential risk factors to both wild and domestic bird populations. Following the confirmation of infections of HPAI H5N1 in domestic poultry at two commercial premises in Indiana, United States, we sampled and tested 266 Columbiformes and Passeriformes birds and found no detections of the virus at either location. We further queried laboratories within the National Animal Health Laboratory Network for avian influenza (AI) virus diagnostic test results for wild birds submitted from morbidity/mortality events, for a total of 9,368 birds tested across eight orders and 1,543 avian influenza virus detections between February 2022 and March 2023. Query results were assessed for viral prevalence by taxonomic group and suggested that the virus most often was observed in predatory and scavenging birds. The highest prevalence was observed in raptors (0.2514), with prevalence rates in exclusively scavenging Cathartidae reaching up to 0.5333. There is evidence that the consumption of infected tissues is a key pathway for transmission of AI viruses in predatory and scavenging birds. Although detections were found in nonpredatory synanthropic birds, including orders Columbiformes and Passeriformes, the risk of transmission from and between these groups appears comparatively low. Understanding the dynamics of AI viruses in synanthropic bird orders during the global HPAI H5N1 outbreak in wild bird populations can provide pertinent information on viral transmission, disease ecology, and risk to humans and agriculture.

Rhizoctonia solani AG1-IB, AG1-IC, and AG4-HGII cause bottom rot of field lettuce in Vermont.

Members of Rhizoctonia solani (teleomorph: Thanatephorus cucumeris) species complex cause bottom rot on lettuce (Latuca sativa) and yield losses up to 70% (Subbarao et al. 2017). Severe symptoms include necrosis, stem rot, and/or discoloration especially on the leaf midrib. In Vermont, vegetable farms are small (0.5-30 acres) and grow lettuce concurrently with other vegetable crops in the same field but the AG(s) that causes the disease in Vermont has not been determined. Isolates (n = 157) were collected from 31 fields with reported history of bottom rot between July 10 and October 8, 2019, across Addison, Caledonia, Chittenden, Franklin, Lamoille, and Orleans counties. Isolates were collected from lettuce tissue or potato (Solanum tuberosum), a common rotation crop, or uncropped soil baited using radish (Raphanus sativus). Pieces of tissue (5-10 mm) were cut from the leading margin of lesions, surface disinfested with 0.1% NaClO for 1 min followed by 2 rinses with sterile water, blotted dry, and plated onto acidified 2% water agar (0.085% lactic acid, pH 4.8). After incubation for 48 to 72 h, mycelia resembling Rhizoctonia were examined for morphological characteristics including hyphal branching at ca. 90o angles, a septum near the branching point, multiple nuclei per cell, and lack of both clamp connections and conidia (Sneh et al. 1991). Colonies were white to dark brown, and some produced small sclerotia. Koch's postulates were performed by inoculating nine 8-week-old (9 leaf pairs) romaine lettuce plants (Johnny's Seeds, Winslow, ME, cv. Monte Carlo) per isolate. Isolates were grown on 2% potato dextrose agar for 1 week, from which a 5-mm agar plug was placed on the adaxial leaf surface at the base of a petiole. Plants were enclosed in a plastic bag to maintain high humidity and grown under a 16-hour photoperiod at 24 °C. Disease severity was rated 4 days after inoculation (0: healthy, 1: isolated lesions, 2: lesions across multiple petioles, and 3: systemic disease). Putative AG were determined by Sanger sequencing of the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region using the ITS1F and ITS4B primer pair (758 bp) (Gardes and Bruns 1993). Contigs were assembled using CAP3 software (Huang and Madan 1999). Taxonomy was assigned to each OTU via the NCBI BLASTn database with criteria as 0.0 E and nucleotide match of at least 97%. Of the 10 isolates sequenced with sufficient coverage (735 to 784 bp alignment length) and definitive resolution (96.7 to 99.9% identity), 5 were putative AG 1-IB (Genbank Accession HG934430.1), 2 AG 1-IC (Genbank Accession AF354058.1), 2 AG 3 (Genbank Accession AF354064.1), and 1 AG 4-HGII (Genbank Accession AF354074.1). Fasta files and metadata are archived at 10.6084/m9.figshare.20301324, 10.6084/m9.figshare.20301375. Putative AG 1-IB was highly virulent on lettuce plants whether it originated from potato (mean 2.6) or lettuce (mean 1.3 to 3). AG 4-HGII and AG 1-IC isolated from lettuce and radish, respectively, were moderately severe (mean 1.4 to 2.2) on lettuce with identical symptoms. The two potato isolates (AG3) were not pathogenic on lettuce. Similarly, higher incidence of AG 1-IB is reported on lettuce in Quebec (Wallon et al. 2021), Ohio (Herr 1993), and Germany (Grosch et al. 2004). Because AG vary in their host range (Sneh et al. 1991), knowing the AG will inform management decisions such as crop rotation and weed control. This is the first report of the causal agent of bottom rot of lettuce or any AG of R. solani in Vermont.

The predictability of near‐term forest biomass change in boreal North America

AbstractClimate change is driving substantial changes in North American boreal forests, including changes in productivity, mortality, recruitment, and biomass. Despite the importance for carbon budgets and informing management decisions, there is a lack of near‐term (5–30 year) forecasts of expected changes in aboveground biomass (AGB). In this study, we forecast AGB changes across the North American boreal forest using machine learning, repeat measurements from 25,000 forest inventory sites, and gridded geospatial datasets. We find that AGB change can be predicted up to 30 years into the future, and that training on sites across the entire domain allows accurate predictions even in regions with only a small amount of existing field data. While predicting AGB loss is less skillful than gains, using a multi‐model ensemble can improve the accuracy in detecting change direction to >90% for observed increases, and up to 70% for observed losses. Higher stem density, winter temperatures, and the presence of temperate tree species in forest plots were positively associated with AGB change, whereas greater initial biomass, continentality (difference between mean summer and winter temperatures), prevalence of black spruce (Picea mariana), summer precipitation, and early warning metrics from long‐term remote sensing time series were negatively associated with AGB change. Across the domain, we predict nondisturbance‐induced declines in AGB at 23% of sites by 2030. The approach developed here can be used to estimate near‐future forest biomass in boreal North America and inform relevant management decisions. Our study also highlights the power of machine learning multi‐model ensembles when trained on a large volume of forest inventory plots, which could be applied to other regions with adequate plot density and spatial coverage.