Influenza Planning Research Articles

Cost-utility analysis of antiviral use under pandemic influenza using a novel approach - linking pharmacology, epidemiology and heath economics.

Simulation models are used widely in pharmacology, epidemiology and health economics (HEs). However, there have been no attempts to incorporate models from these disciplines into a single integrated model. Accordingly, we explored this linkage to evaluate the epidemiological and economic impact of oseltamivir dose optimisation in supporting pandemic influenza planning in the USA. An HE decision analytic model was linked to a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamics (PK/PD) - dynamic transmission model simulating the impact of pandemic influenza with low virulence and low transmissibility and, high virulence and high transmissibility. The cost-utility analysis was from the payer and societal perspectives, comparing oseltamivir 75 and 150 mg twice daily (BID) to no treatment over a 1-year time horizon. Model parameters were derived from published studies. Outcomes were measured as cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the integrated model's robustness. Under both pandemic scenarios, compared to no treatment, the use of oseltamivir 75 or 150 mg BID led to a significant reduction of influenza episodes and influenza-related deaths, translating to substantial savings of QALYs. Overall drug costs were offset by the reduction of both direct and indirect costs, making these two interventions cost-saving from both perspectives. The results were sensitive to the proportion of inpatient presentation at the emergency visit and patients' quality of life. Integrating PK/PD-EPI/HE models is achievable. Whilst further refinement of this novel linkage model to more closely mimic the reality is needed, the current study has generated useful insights to support influenza pandemic planning.

Ethical issues in national pandemic influenza plans

Ethical issues in national pandemic influenza plans

Anticipation and response: pandemic influenza in Malawi, 2009

ABSTRACT Background: In 2006, Malawi developed a national influenza plan to mitigate, prevent and manage the burden of infection should an outbreak occur. In 2009, it translated its contingency plan to respond to the unfolding influenza pandemic. However, little is known of how Malawi translated its national influenza plan into response actions, or the success of these responses. Objective: To investigate how Malawi translated its preparedness plan and so broaden our understanding of the outcomes of the responses. Methods: We draw on data from 22 in-depth interviews with government policymakers and people working at a policy level in various non-governmental organisations, conducted to assess the level of preparedness and the challenges of translating this. Results: Through a number of public health initiatives, authorities developed communication strategies, strengthened influenza surveillance activities and updated overall goals in pandemic training and education. However, without influenza drills, exercises and simulations to test the plan, activating the pandemic plan, including coordinating and deploying generic infection control measures, was problematic. Responses during the pandemic were at times ‘weak and clumsy’ and failed to mirror the activities and processes highlighted in the preparedness plan. Conclusions: Participants stressed that in order to achieve a coordinated and successful response to mitigate and prevent the further transmission of pandemic influenza, good preparation was critical. The key elements which they identified as relevant for a rapid response included effective communications, robust evidence-based decision-making, strong and reliable surveillance systems and flexible public health responses. To effectively articulate a viable trajectory of pandemic responses, the potential value of simulation exercises could be given more consideration as a mean of sustaining good levels of preparedness and responses against future pandemics. These all demand a well-structured planning for and response to pandemic influenza strategy developed by a functioning scientific and policy advisory committee.

Pandemic Risk Assessment Model (PRAM): a mathematical modeling approach to pandemic influenza planning.

The Pandemic Risk Assessment Model (PRAM) is a mathematical model developed to analyse two pandemic influenza control measures available to public health: antiviral treatment and immunization. PRAM is parameterized using surveillance data from Alberta, Canada during pandemic H1N1. Age structure and risk level are incorporated in the compartmental, deterministic model through a contact matrix. The model characterizes pandemic influenza scenarios by transmissibility and severity properties. Simulating a worst-case scenario similar to the 1918 pandemic with immediate stockpile release, antiviral demand is 20·3% of the population. With concurrent, effective and timely immunization strategies, antiviral demand would be significantly less. PRAM will be useful in informing policy decisions such as the size of the Alberta antiviral stockpile and can contribute to other pandemic influenza planning activities and scenario analyses.

Preparedness as a technology of (in)security: Pandemic influenza planning and the global biopolitics of emerging infectious disease.

This article takes as its starting point the idea that re-emerging infectious disease has become a paradigmatic way of thinking about disease. The framing of infectious disease as a threat to global public health and economic security coincides with preemptive forms of control. A particular type of preemptive regulation is global pandemic influenza planning that entails the governing of an imminent, albeit uncertain, global health event. We examine the discourse of ‘preparedness’ within pandemic planning documents produced by the World Health Organization from 1999 to 2009. We present key findings on: the construction of the influenza virus in terms of its potential to transform and expand across corporeal and territorial boundaries; and the integration of pandemic preparedness into everyday practices. Our analysis illustrates how the discourse of preparedness links the justification for population-level preemptive approaches to discursive constructions of the virus. By articulating this relationship, this article contributes to understandings of the implications of ‘molecular’ constructions for the biopolitical regulation of the global population.

An early warning system for detecting H1N1 disease outbreak – a spatio-temporal approach

The outbreaks of new and emerging infectious diseases in recent decades have caused widespread social and economic disruptions in the global economy. Various guidelines for pandemic influenza planning are based upon traditional infection control, best practice and evidence. This article describes the development of an early warning system for detecting disease outbreaks in the urban setting of Hong Kong, using 216 confirmed cases of H1N1 influenza from 1 May 2009 to 20 June 2009. The prediction model uses two variables – daily influenza cases and population numbers – as input to the spatio-temporal and stochastic SEIR model to forecast impending disease cases. The fairly encouraging forecast accuracy metrics for the 1- and 2-day advance prediction suggest that the number of impending cases could be estimated with some degree of certainty. Much like a weather forecast system, the procedure combines technical and scientific skills using empirical data but the interpretation requires experience and intuitive reasoning.

An Early Warning Influenza Model using Alberta Real- Time Syndromic Data (ARTSSN)

We developed early warning algorithms for influenza using data from the Alberta Real-Time Syndromic Surveillance Net (ARTSSN). In addition to looking for signatures of potential pandemics, the model was operationalized by using the algorithms to provide regular weekly forecasts on the influenza trends in Alberta during 2012-2014. We describe the development of the early warning model and the predicted influenza peak time and attack rate results. We report on the usefulness of this model using real-time ARTSSN data, discuss how it was used by decision makers and suggest future enhancements for this promising tool in influenza planning and preparedness.

Challenges and changes: Immunization program managers share perspectives in a 2012 national survey about the US immunization system since the H1N1 pandemic response

In mid-2012 we conducted survey of immunization program managers (IPMs) for the purpose of describing relationships between immunization programs and emergency preparedness programs, IPM's perceptions of challenges encountered and changes made or planned in programmatic budgeting, vaccine allocation and pandemic plans as a result of the H1N1 vaccination campaign. Over 95% of IPMs responded (61/64) to the survey. IPMs reported that a primary budget-related challenge faced during H1N1 included staff-related restrictions that limited the ability to hire extra help or pay regular staff overtime resulting in overworked regular staff. Other budget-related challenges related to operational budget shortfalls and vaccine procurement delays. IPMs described overcoming these challenges by increasing staff where possible, using executive order or other high-level support by officials to access emergency funds and make policy changes, as well as expedite hiring and spending processes according to their pandemic influenza plan or by direction from leadership. Changes planned for response to future pandemic vaccine allocation strategies were to “tailor the strategy to the event” taking into account disease virulence, vaccine production rates and public demand, having flexible vaccine allocation strategies, clarifying priority groups for vaccine receipt to providers and the public, and having targeted clinics such as through pharmacies or schools. Changes already made to pandemic plans were improving strategies for internal and external communication, improving vaccine allocation efficiency, and planning for specific scenarios. To prepare for future pandemics, programs should ensure well-defined roles, collaborating during non-emergency situations, sustaining continuity in preparedness funding, and improved technologies.

Australia’s pandemic influenza ‘Protect’ phase: emerging out of the fog of pandemic

Recent sociological analyses of contemporary emergency planning foreground a potential break between preparedness plans animated by the spectre of an imaginary future catastrophe and classical public health efforts that are anchored in close knowledge of populations and efforts to prevent the transmission of disease. Whilst scholarly analysis to date suggests that the distinct rationales of public health governance underpinning these different approaches are likely to be entwined and to work in productive tension with each other, less attention has been paid to how this tension plays out in practice. Using 27 semi-structured interviews with public health experts involved in the development or implementation of Australia’s pandemic influenza plan, this paper examines how preparedness efforts established in anticipation of a catastrophic threat were reconfigured during the Australian 2009 (H1N1) pandemic influenza. Specifically, one Australian state broke with the national plan and rapidly inserted an entirely new pandemic phase – which became known as ‘Protect’ – into their response, thereby providing a critical reorientation in the ‘fog of pandemic’. Our analysis indicates that classical population health efforts interrupted not only the vision of catastrophe embedded within the plans, but the actual plans and their implementation, forcing the public health response in a new direction.

Pandemic influenza plans in residential care facilities.

To identify characteristics of residential care facilities (RCFs) associated with having a pandemic influenza plan. Nationally representative, cross-sectional survey. RCFs in the United States. Participating facilities in the 2010 National Survey of RCFs (N = 2,294), representing 31,030 assisted living facilities and personal care homes. Facility-level characteristics associated with a pandemic influenza plan, including general organization descriptors, staffing, resident services, and immunization practices. Forty-five percent (95% confidence interval (CI) = 43-47%) had a pandemic plan, 14% (95% CI = 13-16%) had a plan in preparation, and 41% (95% CI = 38-43%) had no plan. In the multivariable model, organization characteristics, staffing, and immunization practices were independently associated with the presence of a pandemic preparedness plan. Organization characteristics were larger size (extra large, OR = 3.27, 95% CI = 1.96-5.46; large, OR = 2.60, 95% CI = 1.81-3.75; medium, OR = 1.66, 95% CI = 1.21-2.27 vs small), not-for-profit status (OR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.31-2.09 vs for profit), and chain affiliation (OR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.31-2.09 vs nonaffiliated). Staffing characteristics included number of registered nurse hours (<15 minutes, OR = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.07-1.74 vs no hours), any licensed practical nurse hours (OR = 1.47, 95% CI = 1.08-1.99 vs no hours), and at least 75 hours of required training for aides (OR = 1.34, 95% CI = 1.05-1.71 vs <75 hours). RCFs with high staff influenza vaccination rates (81-100%, OR = 2.12, 95% CI = 1.27-3.53 vs 0% vaccinated) were also more likely to have a pandemic plan. A majority of RCFs lacked a pandemic influenza plan. These facilities were smaller, for-profit, non-chain-affiliated RCFs and had lower staff vaccination rates. These characteristics may help target facilities that need to develop plans to handle a pandemic, or other disasters.

Hospital capacity and management preparedness for pandemic influenza in Victoria

This study was designed to investigate acute hospital pandemic influenza preparedness in Victoria, Australia, particularly focussing on planning and management efforts. A prospective study was conducted by questionnaire and semi-structured interview of health managers across the Victorian hospital system from July to October 2011. Participants with responsibility for emergency management, planning and operations were selected from every hospital in Victoria with an emergency department to complete a questionnaire (response rate 22/43 = 51%). Each respondent was invited to participate in a phone-based semi-structured interview (response rate 11/22 = 50%). Rural/regional hospitals demonstrated higher levels of clinical (86%) and non-clinical (86%) staff contingency planning than metropolitan hospitals (60% and 40% respectively). Pandemic plans were not being sufficiently tested in exercises or drills, which is likely to undermine their effectiveness. All respondents reported hand hygiene and standard precautions programs in place, although only one-third (33%) of metropolitan respondents and no rural/regional respondents reported being able to meet patient needs with high levels of staff absenteeism. Almost half Victoria's healthcare workers were unvaccinated against influenza. Hospitals across Victoria demonstrated different levels of influenza pandemic preparedness and planning. If a more severe influenza pandemic than that of 2009 arose, Victorian hospitals would struggle with workforce and infrastructure problems, particularly in rural/regional areas. Staff absenteeism threatens to undermine hospital pandemic responses. Various strategies, including education and communication, should be included with in-service training to provide staff with confidence in their ability to work safely during a future pandemic.

Leveraging Partnerships Among Community Pharmacists, Pharmacies, and Health Departments to Improve Pandemic Influenza Response

Response to public health emergencies requires coordination across multiple sectors and effective use of existing resources in communities. With the expanded role of community pharmacists in public health during the past decade, their participation in response to emergencies has become increasingly important. Local health departments play a lead role in local public health emergency responses, and their ability to develop and leverage partnerships has become increasingly vital given their funding and personnel shortages. This article offers insight and recommendations on how local health departments can most effectively develop and maintain relationships with community pharmacies and pharmacists that will allow for a more coordinated and resourceful public health response to emergencies, and specifically to pandemic influenza outbreaks. Additionally, state and local health departments should reach out to pharmacies in a synchronized way to incorporate them into their pandemic influenza planning and response efforts. As pharmacists continue to expand their role as part of the public health system, pharmacy staff can be active participants with public health agencies to improve community public health emergency response.

Modeling Influenza Pandemic and Planning Food Distribution

Based on the recent incidents of H5N1, H1N1, and influenza pandemics in history (1918, 1957, and 1968) experts believe that a future influenza pandemic is inevitable and likely imminent. Although the severity of influenza pandemics vary, evidence suggests that an efficient and rapid response is crucial for mitigating morbidity, mortality, and costs to society. Hence, preparing for a potential influenza pandemic is a high priority of governments at all levels (local, state, federal), nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and companies. In a severe pandemic, when a large number of people are ill, infected persons and their families may have difficulty purchasing and preparing meals. Various government agencies and NGOs plan to provide meals to these households. In this paper, in collaboration with the American Red Cross, we study food distribution planning during an influenza pandemic. We develop a disease spread model to estimate the spread pattern of the disease geographically and over time, combine it with a facility location and resource allocation network model for food distribution, and develop heuristics to find near-optimal solutions for large instances. We run our combined disease spread and facility location model for the state of Georgia and present the estimated number of infections and the number of meals needed in each census tract for a one-year period along with a design of the supply chain network. Moreover, we investigate the impact of voluntary quarantine on the food demand and the food distribution network and show that its effects on food distribution can be significant. Our results could help decision makers prepare for a pandemic, including how to allocate limited resources and respond dynamically.

Going Viral

The objective of this study was to assess hospital and emergency department (ED) pediatric surge strategies utilized during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic as well as compliance with national guidelines. Electronic survey was sent to a convenience sample of emergency physicians and nurses from US EDs with a pediatric volume of more than 10,000 annually. Survey questions assessed the participant's hospital baseline pandemic and surge preparedness, as well as strategies for ED surge and compliance with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines for health care personal protection, patient testing, and treatment. The response rate was 54% (53/99). Preexisting pandemic influenza plans were absent in 44% of hospitals; however, 91% developed an influenza plan as a result of the pandemic. Twenty-four percent reported having a preexisting ED pandemic staffing model, and 36% had a preexisting alternate care site plan. Creation and/or modifications of existing plans for ED pandemic staffing (82%) and alternate care site plan (68%) were reported. Seventy-nine percent of institutions initially followed CDC guidelines for personal protection (use of N95 masks), of which 82% later revised their practices. Complete compliance with CDC guidelines was 60% for patient testing and 68% for patient treatment. Before the H1N1 pandemic, greater than 40% of the hospitals in our study did not have an influenza pandemic preparedness plan. Many had to modify their existing plans during the surge. Not all institutions fully complied with CDC guidelines. Data from this multicenter survey should assist clinical leaders to create more robust surge plans for children.

A review of the winter influenza strategy for hospitals within a major district health board in New Zealand following the 2012 Influenza season

Abstract Winter influenza planning is an integral part of a health services preparation for the annual increase in respiratory virus infections and associated hospital admissions in New Zealand. A moderate to severe influenza A (H3N2) outbreak occurred in the winter of 2012 resulting in an unprecedented number of attendances of patients with influenza-like illness at the Canterbury District Health Board (CDHB) hospital’s emergency assessment areas. A review of the hospital winter influenza strategy following this outbreak, included the use of dedicated influenza wards, extensive diagnostic testing of patients, infection control advice, staff influenza vaccination and the use of Oseltamivir for treatment of patients and prophylaxis of their contacts. The review found that 534 patients were seen and laboratory confirmed to have influenza, 347 patients were admitted and 40 nosocomial influenza infections recorded over an 11 weeks period. The strategy contributed to the management of the hospital admission of patients with influenza, a relatively low number of nosocomial influenza infections in the dedicated admission wards and low in-hospital mortality. The use of diagnostic testing for influenza with planned escalation of services supported the clinical decision to treat patients with confirmed influenza and prophylaxis contacts with Oseltamivir probably facilitated appropriate discharge of patients.

Assessing the Utility of the Nominal Group Technique as a Consensus-Building Tool in Extension-Led Avian Influenza Response Planning

The intent of the project described was to apply the Nominal Group Technique (NGT) to achieve a consensus on Avian Influenza (AI) planning in Northeastern Ohio. Nominal Group Technique is a process first developed by Delbecq, Vande Ven, and Gustafsen (1975) to allow all participants to have an equal say in an open forum setting. A very diverse group of experts were gathered to determine direction for regional AI response planning. The findings of the study indicate that the NGT is an appropriate technique for planning for the emergency management of an AI outbreak in a defined geographical area.

PH1N1 - a comparative analysis of public health responses in Ontario to the influenza outbreak, public health and primary care: lessons learned and policy suggestions

BackgroundOntario’s 36 Public Health Units (PHUs) were responsible for implementing the H1N1 Pandemic Influenza Plans (PIPs) to address the first pandemic influenza virus in over 40 years. It was the first under conditions which permitted mass immunization. This is therefore the first opportunity to learn and document what worked well, and did not work well, in Ontario’s response to pH1N1, and to make recommendations based on experience.MethodsOur objectives were to: describe the PIP models, obtain perceptions on outcomes, lessons learned and to solicit policy suggestions for improvement. We conducted a 3-phase comparative analysis study comprised of semi-structured key informant interviews with local Medical Officers of Health (n = 29 of 36), and Primary Care Physicians (n = 20) and in Phase 3 with provincial Chief-Medical Officers of Health (n = 6) and a provincial Medical Organization. Phase 2 data came from a Pan-Ontario symposium (n = 44) comprised leaders representing: Public Health, Primary Care, Provincial and Federal Government.ResultsPIPs varied resulting in diverse experiences and lessons learned. This was in part due to different PHU characteristics that included: degree of planning, PHU and Primary Care capacity, population, geographic and relationships with Primary Care. Main lessons learned were: 1) Planning should be more comprehensive and operationalized at all levels. 2) Improve national and provincial communication strategies and eliminate contradictory messages from different sources. 3) An integrated community-wide response may be the best approach to decrease the impact of a pandemic. 4) The best Mass Immunization models can be quickly implemented and have high immunization rates. They should be flexible and allow for incremental responses that are based upon: i) pandemic severity, ii) local health system, population and geographic characteristics, iii) immunization objectives, and iv) vaccine supply.Conclusion“We were very lucky that pH1N1 was not more severe.” Consensus existed for more detailed planning and the inclusion of multiple health system and community stakeholders. PIPs should be flexible, allow for incremental responses and have important decisions (E.g., under which conditions Public Health, Primary Care, Pharmacists or others act as vaccine delivery agents.) made prior to a crisis.

Pandemic influenza planning, United States, 1978-2008.

During the past century, 4 influenza pandemics occurred. After the emergence of a novel influenza virus of swine origin in 1976, national, state, and local US public health authorities began planning efforts to respond to future pandemics. Several events have since stimulated progress in public health emergency planning: the 1997 avian influenza A(H5N1) outbreak in Hong Kong, China; the 2001 anthrax attacks in the United States; the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome; and the 2003 reemergence of influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in humans. We outline the evolution of US pandemic planning since the late 1970s, summarize planning accomplishments, and explain their ongoing importance. The public health community’s response to the 2009 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic demonstrated the value of planning and provided insights into improving future plans and response efforts. Preparedness planning will enhance the collective, multilevel response to future public health crises.

Information Technology Systems for Critical Care Triage and Medical Response During an Influenza Pandemic: A Review of Current Systems

To assess local, state, federal, and global pandemic influenza preparedness by identifying pandemic plans at the local, state, federal, and global levels, and to identify any information technology (IT) systems in these plans to support critical care triage during an influenza pandemic in the Canadian province of Ontario. The authors used advanced MEDLINE and Google search strategies and conducted a comprehensive review of key pandemic influenza Web sites. Descriptive data extraction and analysis for IT systems were conducted on all of the included pandemic plans. A total of 155 pandemic influenza plans were reviewed: 29 local, 62 state, 63 federal, and 1 global. We found 70 plans that examined IT systems (10 local, 33 state, 26 federal, 1 global), and 85 that did not (19 local, 29 state, 37 federal). Of the 70 plans, 64 described surveillance systems (10 local, 32 state, 21 federal, 1 global), 2 described patient data collection systems (1 state, 1 federal); 4 described other types of IT systems (4 federal), and none were intended for triage. Although several pandemic plans have been drafted, the majority are high-level general documents that do not describe IT systems. The plans that discuss IT systems focus strongly on surveillance, which fails to recognize the needs of a health care system responding to an influenza pandemic. The best examples of the types of IT systems to guide decision making during a pandemic were found in the Kansas and the Czech Republic pandemic plans, because these systems were designed to collect both patient and surveillance data. Although Ontario has yet to develop such an IT system, several IT systems are in place that could be leveraged to support critical care triage and medical response during an influenza pandemic.

Biopiracy and vaccines: Indonesia and the World Health Organization’s new Pandemic Influenza Plan

Biopiracy and vaccines: Indonesia and the World Health Organization’s new Pandemic Influenza Plan