Spanish Flu Research Articles

Stock returns and the Spanish flu, 1918–1920

We study the impact of the 1918 Spanish Flu on U.S. stock prices. Using a new weekly hand collected sample of 131 firms that traded on the NYSE, we examine the impact of the four waves of the flu on stock returns using panel regressions. We find that the second and fourth wave of the pandemic significantly lowered stock returns by 65.5 and 21.6 percent relative to the sample mean return, respectively. The large, but temporary impact of the virus on stock returns can probably be attributed to the fact that, unlike Covid-19, the flu hit the working age population particularly hard.

A Statistical Analysis of Positive Excess Mortality at Covid-19 in 2020-2021

When it comes to making assessments about public health, the mortality rate is a very important factor. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated well-known biases that affect the measurement of mortality, which varies with time and place. The COVID-19 pandemic took the world off surveillance, and since the outbreak, it has caused damage that many would have thought unthinkable in the present era. By estimating excess mortality for 2020 and 2021, we provide a thorough and consistent evaluation of the COVID-19 pandemic's effects. Excess mortality is a term used in epidemiology and public health to describe the number of fatalities from all causes during a crisis that exceeds what would be expected under 'normal' circumstances. Excess mortality has been used for thousands of years to estimate health emergencies and pandemics like the 1918 "Spanish Flu"6. Positive excess mortality occurs when actual deaths exceed previous data or recognized patterns. It could demonstrate how a pandemic affects the mortality rate. The estimates of positive excess mortality presented in this research are generated using the procedure, data, and methods described in detail in the Methods section and briefly summarized in this study. We explored different regression models in order to find the most effective factor for our estimates. We predict the pandemic period all-cause deaths in locations lacking complete reported data using the Poisson, Negative Binomial count framework. By overdispersion test, we checked the assumption of the Poisson model, and then we chose the negative binomial as a good fitting model for this analysis through Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and Standardized residual plots, after that checking the P-value<0.05; we found some significant predictors from our choosing model Negative binomial model, and the coefficient of all predictors gave the information that some factors have a positive effect, and some has a negative effect at positive excess mortality at COVID-19 (2020-2021).

Membrane activity of viral proteins.

COVID-19 infection, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, has led to the largest pandemic since the Spanish flu in 1918. In view of this, the development of vaccines and antiviral drugs that can stop the spread of this infection has become an acute issue. Currently, in the search for antiviral drugs against COVID-19, much attention is paid to the study of the structure of the receptor-binding domain of the surface protein S. However, the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus strains indicates its high variability, which reduces the effectiveness of vaccines and antiviral drugs. At the same time, the envelope protein E of this virus is membrane active and shows a rather high conservatism. Despite the critical importance of this protein in the coronavirus life cycle, the physicochemical mechanisms of its interaction with cell membranes still remain unclear. So, we investigated the membrane activity of protein E of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus on models of giant unilamellar vesicles and lipid nanotubes. As a result, it was found that the protein forms pores in the lipid bilayer, i.e., performs the main function of viroporin. In addition, protein E is able to deform lipid membranes and form double-membrane vesicles depending on the concentration.

Using R to develop a corpus of full-text journal articles

Over the past two decades, databases and the tools to access them in a simple manner have become increasingly available, allowing historical and modern-day topics to be merged and studied. Throughout the recent COVID-19 pandemic, for example, many researchers have reflected on whether any lessons learned from the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 could have been helpful in the present pandemic. Most studies using text-mining applications rarely use full-text journal articles. This article provides a methodology used to develop a full-text journal article corpus using the R fulltext package. Using the proposed methodology, 2743 full-text journal articles were obtained. The aim of this article is to provide a methodology and supplementary codes for researchers to use the R fulltext package to curate a full-text journal corpus.

Performing Processions: Premonitions and palimpsests

Aligning historic modes of public performance and participation with anthropological theory that questions the hegemony of Western linear notions of time, this article considers processional performance as a way of looking forwards and back simultaneously through analysis of two case studies of work. Blast Theory's Spit Spreads Death: The Parade (2019), a performance procession including interactive light and sound, took place on the streets of Philadelphia acting as a memorial and celebration of the 20,000 lives that were lost in the city during the Spanish flu epidemic 101 years ago to the day on the 28 September after the Liberty Loan Parade. Six months later, the most deadly virus in living memory, the COVID-19 pandemic, spread around the world and Blast Theory's performance procession seemed to be not only a memorial of the lives lost in the previous epidemic, but a premonition of what was to come. Guyanese-British artist Hew Locke's installation The Procession (2022) snaked around the marble columns of the Duveen gallery at Tate Britain London. Described by Laura Cumming as a procession of the ‘never-ending theatre of humanity’ (2022), this installation of over 150 figures leading towards a pavilion adorned with images of colonial buildings in Guyana both encapsulates and performs a palimpsest of stories of slavery, migration and the movement of people. Rebecca Schneider suggests that it is in the future that our pasts await us: our responses, revisions, or refusals (2018). Analysing these two examples of artworks of premonition and palimpsest, this article argues that processional performance can disrupt linear temporal narratives and memorialize in a way that expands and complicates narratives of sadness, remembering and grief.

Convalescing Profiles

The influenza epidemic of 1918–20 was one of the deadliest events in recent human history, killing at least fifty million people worldwide and at least 675,000 Americans in just two years. Yet, because of government censorship during the pandemic and a lasting cultural silence about the flu, we still have a great deal to learn about this period. In the wake of the COVID-19 crisis, remembering the experience of the Spanish flu has become especially urgent. This essay argues that motion picture fan magazines, many of which are available digitally through the Media History Digital Library, are crucial archives of women’s experiences during the pandemic. Interactive sections of these publications gave readers—especially women and girls—rare opportunities to publicly share their own experiences with the flu. Celebrity “convalescing profiles” expressed anxieties and established expectations for women during the flu pandemic. Revisiting these publications today reveals the importance of celebrity and sites of fan engagement in forging ideas about illness and health.

A Comparison of the 1918 and 2019 Pandemics in the United States.

There are eerie similarities between the 1918 Spanish influenza and 2019 COVID-19 pandemics that are somewhat surprising and disheartening, given that the time interval between the 2 pandemics is more than 100 years. This article covers the national response, etiology and pathophysiology, disease course and treatments, nursing shortages, healthcare responses, sequelae following infections, and economic and social impacts of both pandemics. Understanding the development and course of both pandemics will inform clinical nurse specialists about the changes that need to be made to be better prepared to recognize the changes that need to be made to prepare for the next pandemic.

PIECING TOGETHER THE PUZZLE OF THE SPANISH INFLUENZA IN MADRAS, INDIA: INSIGHTS FOR FUTURE PANDEMIC MANAGEMENT

This research paper explores the impact of the Spanish Influenza outbreak in Madras, India, during the early 20th century. Despite the staggering loss of life caused by the outbreak, little information about its impact and vaccination history has been recorded in administrative, health, vaccination, and sanitary reports. Through the examination of primary sources, including historical accounts, medical reports, and official records, this study seeks to fill this knowledge gap and better understand the impact of the Spanish Influenza in Madras. In addition to analyzing the impact of the outbreak, the paper will compare and contrast the Spanish Influenza with the current COVID-19 pandemic. The results of this research could provide insights into better pandemic preparedness and response in the future.

Have Diagnostics, Therapies, and Vaccines Made the Difference in the Pandemic Evolution of COVID-19 in Comparison with "Spanish Flu"?

In 1918 many countries, but not Spain, were fighting World War I. Spanish press could report about the diffusion and severity of a new infection without censorship for the first-time, so that this pandemic is commonly defined as "Spanish flu", even though Spain was not its place of origin. "Spanish flu" was one of the deadliest pandemics in history and has been frequently compared with the coronavirus disease (COVID)-19 pandemic. These pandemics share similarities, being both caused by highly variable and transmissible respiratory RNA viruses, and diversity, represented by diagnostics, therapies, and especially vaccines, which were made rapidly available for COVID-19, but not for "Spanish flu". Most comparison studies have been carried out in the first period of COVID-19, when these resources were either not yet available or their use had not long started. Conversely, we wanted to analyze the role that the advanced diagnostics, anti-viral agents, including monoclonal antibodies, and innovative COVID-19 vaccines, may have had in the pandemic containment. Early diagnosis, therapies, and anti-COVID-19 vaccines have markedly reduced the pandemic severity and mortality, thus preventing the collapse of the public health services. However, their influence on the reduction of infections and re-infections, thus on the transition from pandemic to endemic condition, appears to be of minor relevance. The high viral variability of influenza and coronavirus may probably be contained by the development of universal vaccines, which are not easy to be obtained. The only effective weapon still remains the disease prevention, to be achieved with the reduction of promiscuity between the animal reservoirs of these zoonotic diseases and humans.

Hyperbaric air mobilizes stem cells in humans; a new perspective on the hormetic dose curve.

Hyperbaric air (HBA) was first used pharmaceutically in 1662 to treat lung disease. Extensive use in Europe and North America followed throughout the 19th century to treat pulmonary and neurological disorders. HBA reached its zenith in the early 20th century when cyanotic, moribund "Spanish flu pandemic" patients turned normal color and regained consciousness within minutes after HBA treatment. Since that time the 78% Nitrogen fraction in HBA has been completely displaced by 100% oxygen to create the modern pharmaceutical hyperbaric oxygen therapy (HBOT), a powerful treatment that is FDA approved for multiple indications. Current belief purports oxygen as the active element mobilizing stem progenitor cells (SPCs) in HBOT, but hyperbaric air, which increases tensions of both oxygen and nitrogen, has been untested until now. In this study we test HBA for SPC mobilization, cytokine and chemokine expression, and complete blood count. Ten 34-35-year-old healthy volunteers were exposed to 1.27ATA (4 psig/965 mmHg) room air for 90 min, M-F, for 10 exposures over 2-weeks. Venous blood samples were taken: (1) prior to the first exposure (served as the control for each subject), (2) directly after the first exposure (to measure the acute effect), (3) immediately prior to the ninth exposure (to measure the chronic effect), and (4) 3 days after the completion of tenth/final exposure (to assess durability). SPCs were gated by blinded scientists using Flow Cytometry. SPCs (CD45dim/CD34+/CD133-) were mobilized by nearly two-fold following 9 exposures (p = 0.02) increasing to three-fold 72-h post completion of the final (10th) exposure (p = 0.008) confirming durability. This research demonstrates that SPCs are mobilized, and cytokines are modulated by hyperbaric air. HBA likely is a therapeutic treatment. Previously published research using HBA placebos should be re-evaluated to reflect a dose treatment finding rather than finding a placebo effect. Our findings of SPC mobilization by HBA support further investigation into hyperbaric air as a pharmaceutical/therapy.

CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) VACCINATION: SCIENTIFIC FACTS. THE GREEK REPORT

Since its emergence in Wuhan, China, in late 2019, COVID-19 has rapidly become a pandemic spreading to all countries worldwide and demanding urgent healthcare response. The social and economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has taken variable shapes and forms regarding its effect on communities and decision-making, while the major risks probably arise not from the virus itself but from the indirect effects of the control measures and the societal activities. Owing to experiences from previous pandemics generating global health crises such as the HIV5 pandemic (1980), the Spanish flu (1918) and the 2009 flu the healthcare community had now more scientific facts to handle the COVID-19 pandemic as shown by the faster time it took for the development and licensing of the vaccines from the time the first case was identified. Although the control and vaccination strategies against the COVID-19 virus are still controversial issues as they have the potential to multiply the impact of the pandemic, this report aims to provide a timely review on the facts regarding the measures and the policy-making in Greece and how they affected the citizens in a socioeconomic and psychological context.<p> </p><p><strong> Article visualizations:</strong></p><p><img src="/-counters-/soc/0007/a.php" alt="Hit counter" /></p>

Influenza pandemics and macroeconomic fluctuations 1871-2016.

This paper documents the short-run macroeconomic impacts of influenza pandemics across 16 countries spanning 1871-2016 using the Jordà-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database and the Human Mortality Database. We find pandemic-induced mortality contributed meaningfully to business cycle fluctuations in the post 1870 era. We identify negative causal impacts on the cyclical component of GDP using pandemics to instrument for working-age mortality. The analysis of short-run economic outcomes extends literature dominatedby long-run economic growth outcomes and case studies of several specific health shocks such as the Black Death, Spanish Flu or COVID-19. Our findings illustrate that less catastrophic pandemics still have important economic implications.

Interaction of COVID-19 With Common Cardiovascular Disorders.

The onset and widespread dissemination of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 in late 2019 impacted the world in a way not seen since the 1918 H1N1 pandemic, colloquially known as the Spanish Flu. Much like the Spanish Flu, which was observed to disproportionately impact young adults, it became clear in the early days of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic that certain groups appeared to be at higher risk for severe illness once infected. One such group that immediately came to the forefront and garnered international attention was patients with preexisting cardiovascular disease. Here, we examine the available literature describing the interaction of COVID-19 with a myriad of cardiovascular conditions and diseases, paying particular attention to patients diagnosed with arrythmias, heart failure, and coronary artery disease. We further discuss the association of acute COVID-19 with de novo cardiovascular disease, including myocardial infarction due to coronary thrombosis, myocarditis, and new onset arrhythmias. We will evaluate various biochemical theories to explain these findings, including possible mechanisms of direct myocardial injury caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 virus at the cellular level. Finally, we will discuss the strategies employed by numerous groups and governing bodies within the cardiovascular disease community to address the unprecedented challenges posed to the care of our most vulnerable patients, including heart transplant recipients, end-stage heart failure patients, and patients suffering from acute coronary syndromes, during the early days and height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Coping With Pandemics: A Historical Perspective About Society's Tools to Deal With Global Infectious Diseases.

Throughout history, society has dealt with several devastating pandemics. Our objective is to analyze society's coping mechanisms to deal with pandemic-related stress in history congruent with the values of the time. For that purpose, we have carefully selected some of the most significant pandemics based on their impact and the available psychosocial literature. After a brief introduction, society's coping tools are reviewed and analyzed for the Antonine Plague, the second bubonic plague, the third cholera pandemic, the Spanish flu, the HIV pandemic, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite occurring at different times in history, parallels can be established in the study of society's psychological reactions among different pandemics. Magical thinking, political skepticism, fake accusations, and discrimination of minorities are recurrent reactions in society among different pandemics in history.

HRL4EC: Hierarchical reinforcement learning for multi-mode epidemic control

Infectious diseases, such as Black Death, Spanish Flu, and COVID-19, have accompanied human history and threatened public health, resulting in enormous infections and even deaths among citizens. Because of their rapid development and huge impact, laying out interventions becomes one of the most critical paths for policymakers to respond to the epidemic. However, the existing studies mainly focus on epidemic control with a single intervention, which makes the epidemic control effectiveness severely compromised. In view of this, we propose a Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning decision framework for multi-mode Epidemic Control with multiple interventions called HRL4EC. We devise an epidemiological model, referred to as MID-SEIR, to describe multiple interventions' impact on transmission explicitly, and use it as the environment for HRL4EC. Besides, to address the complexity introduced by multiple interventions, this work transforms the multi-mode intervention decision problem into a multi-level control problem, and employs hierarchical reinforcement learning to find the optimal strategies. Finally, extensive experiments are conducted with real and simulated epidemic data to validate the effectiveness of our proposed method. We further analyze the experiment data in-depth, conclude a series of findings on epidemic intervention strategies, and make a visualization accordingly, which can provide heuristic support for policymakers' pandemic response.

Heat-Denatured Lysozyme is a Novel Potential Non-alcoholic Disinfectant Against Respiratory Virus.

Respiratory diseases are significant recurrent threats to global public health. Since the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, seasonal influenza viruses continue to cause epidemics around the world each year. More recently, the COVID-19 global pandemic conducted a public health crisis with more than 6 million deaths and it also severely affected the global economy. Due to the phenomenon that people get infection from objects carrying viruses, it has aroused people's attention to home disinfection. As there is no ideal existing common domestic disinfectant, new and safer antiviral disinfectants are urgently needed. Lysozyme is a natural antibacterial agent widespread in nature and widely used in healthcare and food industry because of is recognized safety. Recently, it has been shown that thermally denatured lysozyme has the ability to kill murine norovirus and hepatitis A virus. In our study, we also demonstrated that heat-denatured lysozyme (HDLz) had an antiviral effect against H1N1 influenza A virus, and we optimized its antiviral activities by testing different heating denaturation conditions, to generalize this property, using pseudotype virus neutralization assay, we found that HDLz can also inhibit the entry of H5N1, H5N6, and H7N1 avian influenza viruses as well as SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 particles in cell with IC50 at the ng/mL range. Finally, using western blot analysis, we provide evidence that HDLz polymerization correlates with antiviral effect, which may be a precious possible quality control test. Altogether, our data support HDLz as a powerful anti-respiratory virus disinfectant as a sole or additive of current disinfectants to reduce concentration of toxic component.

Evaluating vaccine allocation strategies using simulation-assisted causal modeling

We develop a model to retrospectively evaluate age-dependent counterfactual vaccine allocation strategies against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. To estimate the effect of allocation on the expected severe-case incidence, we employ a simulation-assisted causal modeling approach that combines a compartmental infection-dynamics simulation, a coarse-grained causal model, and literature estimates for immunity waning. We compare Israel's strategy, implemented in 2021, with counterfactual strategies such as no prioritization, prioritization of younger age groups, or a strict risk-ranked approach; we find that Israel's implemented strategy was indeed highly effective. We also study the impact of increasing vaccine uptake for given age groups. Because of its modular structure, our model can easily be adapted to study future pandemics. We demonstrate this by simulating a pandemic with characteristics of the Spanish flu. Our approach helps evaluate vaccination strategies under the complex interplay of core epidemic factors, including age-dependent risk profiles, immunity waning, vaccine availability, and spreading rates.

Melting of permafrost: rise of Zombies

Melting of permafrost: rise of Zombies

Antiviral Resistance in Influenza Virus: Mechanism of Action

The "Spanish flu" pandemic caused by H1N1 virus in 1918 caused 50 million deaths. The best-known drugs for treating influenza viruses are antiviral drugs, including amantadine, rimantadine, zanamivir, and oseltamivir. Amantadine and rimantadine are excellent prophylactic drugs against influenza A. Whereas, Zanamivir and oseltamivir have comparable efficacy against influenza A and B viruses. This paper reviews antiviral drugs, approved for clinical use. This review evaluates neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs), focusing on their mechanism of action and the emergence of resistance to them. The results showed that the viruses mutated and developed resistance during the treatment with NAIs for seasonal, pandemic, and avian influenza

Immunopathogenesis of Nipah Virus Infection and Associated Immune Responses

Pandemics in the last two centuries have been initiated by causal pathogens that include Severe Acute Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and Influenza (e.g., the H1N1 pandemic of 2009). The latter is considered to have initiated two prior pandemics in 1918 and 1977, known as the “Spanish Flu” and “Russian Flu”, respectively. Here, we discuss other emerging infections that could be potential public health threats. These include Henipaviruses, which are members of the family Paramyxoviridae that infect bats and other mammals. Paramyxoviridae also include Parainfluenza and Mumps viruses (Rubulavirus) but also Respiratory Syncytial virus (RSV) (Pneumovirus). Additionally included is the Measles virus, recorded for the first time in writing in 1657 (Morbillivirus). In humans and animals, these may cause encephalitis or respiratory diseases. Recently, two more highly pathogenic class 4 viral pathogens emerged. These were named Hendra Henipavirus (HeV) and Nipah Henipavirus (NiV). Nipah virus is a negative-sense single-stranded ribonucleic acid ((−) ssRNA) virus within the family Paramyxoviridae. There are currently no known therapeutics or treatment regimens licensed as effective in humans, with development ongoing. Nipah virus is a lethal emerging zoonotic disease that has been neglected since its characterization in 1999 until recently. Nipah virus infection occurs predominantly in isolated regions of Malaysia, Bangladesh, and India in small outbreaks. Factors that affect animal–human disease transmission include viral mutation, direct contact, amplifying reservoirs, food, close contact, and host cell mutations. There are different strains of Nipah virus, and small outbreaks in humans limit known research and surveillance on this pathogen. The small size of outbreaks in rural areas is suggestive of low transmission. Person-to-person transmission may occur. The role that zoonotic (animal–human) or host immune system cellular factors perform therefore requires analysis. Mortality estimates for NiV infection range from 38–100% (averaging 58.2% in early 2019). It is therefore critical to outline treatments and prevention for NiV disease in future research. The final stages of the disease severely affect key organ systems, particularly the central nervous system and brain. Therefore, here we clarify the pathogenesis, biochemical mechanisms, and all research in context with known immune cell proteins and genetic factors.