Influence In Central Asia Research Articles

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MIGRATION PROCESSES IN CENTRAL ASIA

The article discusses the problems of climate change, water scarcity, desertification and how these problems affect migration processes in Kazakhstan and the Central Asian region. The main objective of the study is to analyze the conceptual problems of climate migration in Central Asia, as well as to identify their key aspects and the possibility of mitigating the effects of global warming. The main objectives of the study include analyzing scientific research, legislative acts and international studies related to new aspects of migration, reviewing environmental factors of migration processes, studying the relationship between climate change and migration. The study used methods of qualitative analysis of expert opinions and methods of substantive analysis of scientific publications. The use of social forecasting methods made it possible to identify the scientific novelty that global warming is an important factor in migration processes. The results of the study allow for a better understanding of the challenges under consideration, which have a global context. But given their degree of influence in Central Asia in general and Kazakhstan in particular, global warming may have a more negative effect. The interrelation of these challenges on migration processes, security and development of Kazakhstan and Central Asian countries is considered. In addition, possible approaches to reduce the effect of global warming are analyzed, as well as the need to increase research in this direction.

THE POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC FOUNDATIONS OF THE RADICAL CHANGE IN THE DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS OF THE RUSSIAN EMPIRE WITH THE REGIONS OF CENTRAL ASIA IN THE 60S OF THE XIX CENTURY

This article will reveal the physiological and economic foundations of the radical turn of the Russian Empire in relations with Central Asia, which took place precisely from the middle of the XIX century. In particular, it has been shown that there are also several external influences in combination with domestic needs such as owning a market with the purchasing power of industrial products that are developing in the country, meeting the demand for cotton raw materials that have arisen, expanding their territory at the expense of southern borders. In this regard, these include the defeat in the Crimean War, the inability to compete with the Western European powers, the need to have its own influence in Central Asia in order to gain an advantage over the Balkan issue.

Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan Border Skirmishes (2022) and Waning Russian Influence in Central Asia

Since their independence, Central Asian republics witnessed most serious interstate military escalation between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in 2022 which left several dead and hundreds injured. There is around 600 KMs of disputed border between the two states which is the major bone of contention. This war also led to a substantial damage to civilian properties. This study analyses the reasons, intensity and outcomes of the war. It particularly evaluates the Russian role in conflict resolution and impacts of this war on the regional security. Findings show that Russian involvement in Ukraine war has negatively impacted its ability to keep influence in the Central Asian region. Russian led CSTO also offered diplomatic solution by connecting both parties through telephonic conversation. Research recommends a regional mechanism to resolve the border conflicts not only between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan but in the whole region. 

Potential of Organization of Turkic States in the International System: Promises and Vulnerabilities

This article examines the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) in the context of the complex geopolitical landscape of Central Asia and the Caucasus. It aims to assess its potential in economic, strategic, and social dimensions within international and regional systems. Employing an eclectic theoretical framework, this study looks at the multifaceted factors that influence the OTS’s potential to foster cooperation and solidarity among Turkic states. The research examines this mechanism in interconnected strategic, economic, and social structures. The strategic dimension encompasses defense alliances and security arrangements, the economic dimension focuses on cooperation and trade, and the social dimension emphasizes cultural and normative aspects. Overall, one of the most important rationales behind the OTS is the idea that it serves as a cohesive force enabling Turkic states to navigate the intricate geopolitical environment of Central Asia and the Caucasus where multiple great powers are vying for influence. This research sheds light on the nuanced interplay of economic, strategic, and soft power activities, providing valuable insights into the OTS’s position and influence in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Aside from its contribution to the literature, this article also aims to assist policymakers wishing to explore the potential and limitations of OTS’s increasing influence.

China-Russia Relations and the Crimea Crisis: Does China Still Insist on the Non-interference Principle?

The crisis in Crimea caused the world to condemn Russia's invasive actions. China, as Russia's strategic partner, is in a dilemmatic situation because on the other hand, China has authority at the UN Security Council to maintain world peace. At the same time, China is also implementing its non-interference principle to respond to this challenge. This article will discuss further about how China can balance its interests with Russia through its non-interference principle and the interests that China has towards Russia. The method used in this research is a qualitative method through document study. The theory used is David Welch's theory of foreign policy change. The findings of this study are China's interests towards Russia, namely energy, military cooperation, and influence in Central Asia so that China's pragmatism arises to support Russia.

Economic instruments of the EU's political influence in Central Asia

The subject of this article is the assessment of the competitiveness of the European Union in the "Big Game" for influence in Central Asia. Brussels is actively using economic opportunities to promote its foreign policy interests. It is worth noting that for the Central Asian countries that pursue a multi-vector and pragmatic foreign policy, economic cooperation with the European Union is also a priority. The article examines the effectiveness of the use of some economic instruments of EU influence in relation to the countries of Central Asia. Particular attention is paid to assessing the effectiveness of the development of trade relations and the creation of preferential regimes, the provision of financial assistance as an instrument of political coercion. Based on the analysis of statistical data, the position is confirmed that the restrictions in the field of trade and investment, the conditions for providing financial assistance imposed by Brussels to exert political pressure on the countries of the region are ineffective. The author comes to the conclusion that political blackmail by the EU against the Central Asian states reduces the level of their trust. Ignorance of local specifics complicates the implementation of joint projects and programs. It is stated that the EU strategy in Central Asia is losing out to the strategies of third countries, primarily China and Russia.

Iran and Regional Convergence in Eurasia

AbstractRegional convergence in Eurasia has been evolving since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Commonwealth of Independent States was Russia's initial attempt to forge a comprehensive regional integration. However, Russia gradually shifted its focus to economics, and this produced the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). This organization has concluded numerous cooperation agreements, even with countries outside the borders of Eurasia, raising questions about regional convergence. In addition, with the expansion of China's influence in Central Asia, there has been a shift in the role and scope of the EEU. Iran has concluded a preferential trade agreement with the EEU, including non‐tariff measures and a list of commodities for which barriers have been reduced or cut to zero. The main question of this study is how Iran's presence in this organization will influence Eurasian convergence. We examine the opportunities for, and obstacles to, convergence through an analysis of the forces that can bind an institution like the EEU: cultural and ideological affinities; the hegemony of the most powerful actors; and the potential for solving common problems.

The China-Russia strategic relationship: Efforts to limit the United States' influence in Central Asia

During the post-cold war era, China and Russia have recognized the considerable influence of each other and are making attempts for the protection of their own national interests and manipulated strategic partnership. The Chinese and Russian Strategic partnership is comprehensive because both the states have enhanced coordination in regional and international topical issues. Their joint statements for the bilateral, regional, and international issues and joint military exercises are a signal of increasing geopolitical and security cooperation. This Beijing and Moscow coordination scenario provoked Washington D.C. and her political, economic and security interests in Central Asia. The substance of this China-Russia policy is rooted against United States (US) influence and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) policies in the region. The multifaceted ties between both countries have the potential to limit the US influence in Eurasia. The study evaluates how the China-Russia strategic partnership is fit to key tenets of them and to develop the multi-polarization to counter US hegemonic influence in Central Asia. This paper follows critical look at the open discussion and comparison of both the countries scholars, journalists and experts. The study elucidates that both the Chinese and Russian partnership has certain features and trajectory of their foreseeable future in the region.

The Belt and Road Initiative is a new impetus for the development of the Central Asian region

The article examines China’s global economic and logistics project “One Belt– One Road”. The long-term project is aimed at promoting the economic integration of the Central Asian region. The concept proposed by the PRC shows that China’s political relations are not aimed at creating an alliance against any countries. The global project provides transparency in terms of economic interaction. China demonstrates its readiness to coordinate this initiative with the development strategies of other parties and the mechanisms of its regional cooperation. The structural basis of the Chinese project is that all participants use a winning format of cooperation. In the economic analysis of the concept, it becomes obvious that the countries located in the belt and road zone have rich resources, their economic bases complement each other and have great potential and space for the development of cooperation. The Central Asian countries have a great transit potential. Due to its geographical location in the center of Eurasia, Kazakhstan can connect Europe and China by land transport. Get the opportunity to become a major logistics center for cargo flows from Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Iran and receive income from the transit of cargo transportation. Beijing may strengthen its influence in Central Asia and block the cargo flow from Southeast Asia to Europe. An additional advantage of the project is significant financial resources to. In the course of the study, the author tried to determine the economic mechanisms and political patterns of the global Belt and Road project ten years after the publication of the mega project.

My Enemy’s Enemy: Iran’s Approach to the Re-emergence of the Taliban

Over the years, Iran’s approach to the Taliban has had ups and downs. Iran welcomed the United States’ 2001 invasion of Afghanistan and worked with the American forces to overthrow the Taliban. Nevertheless, it was not long before Iran adopted an utterly opposite policy by compromising with the Taliban and supplying it with political and military support. This article examines domestic and regional factors contributing to this dramatic change in Iran’s behaviour toward the Taliban. It provides an assessment of how Tehran’s threat perception of the US military presence across its borders, the rise of the Islamic State in Khorasan Province, the increasing Afghan drug trafficking, and the influx of refugees from Afghanistan to Iranian territory have prompted Tehran to pursue a different approach toward the Taliban. It also explains how Iran’s intention to sustain water supply from Afghanistan’s rivers to the eastern provinces of Iran and resume profitable trade with Afghanistan has acted as a catalyst in expanding Iran–Taliban relations. This article argues that Iran sees the Taliban as an agent to weaken the United States, prevent the spread of ISIS in Khorasan, and strengthen Iran’s influence in Central Asia. The article concludes that although the Taliban’s rise to power in Afghanistan poses challenges for Iran, the benefits it brings are such that it prevents Tehran from relinquishing ties with the Taliban.

Роль России и Китая в Шанхайской организации сотрудничества в свете теории институционального баланса

The article analyzes the activities of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the efforts of China and Russia to promote the idea of forming Greater Eurasia as a non-Western international community in order to embody their geostrategic, foreign policy and economic interests. Based on the theory of institutional balance, the article reveals the significance of the SCO over the past 20 years, the expansion of membership and geographical coverage, as well as some of the problems that it faced in consolidating and realizing its potential. Although Beijing and Moscow have many common interests in the region, their priorities and approaches may not always coincide.
 The author argues that the most important transformation of the SCO as a regional organization lies in its usefulness in an exclusive institutional balancing strategy for the PRC and Russia to prevent widespread US influence in Central Asia, to build trust among member states, and to turn the SCO into a regional security community for protecting the interests of member countries.

The Influence of Pan-Turkism on the Political Identity Formation of the Turkic States of Central Asia in the XXI Century (Part 2)

The negative tone of statements about pan-Turkism and Turkey’s policy in the post-Soviet space in the Central Asian region prevails in the Russian media. Indeed, pan-Turkism is a strong factor in the emerging statehood of the newly independent states of the region. At the same time, and it is important to emphasize this, it is not the only and far from defining one. His influence manifested itself mainly in the first half of the 1990s. All the authors note the role of Turkey at the initial stage of the sovereignty of the countries of this region. Then, first, due to lack of resources, its influence in Central Asia began to wane. New players appeared in the region, representing the interests of Western countries and China. Russian economic, military, and political influence also became more stable and weightier. Turkey’s attempts in the XXI century to achieve new successes in promoting its interests based on the values of Turkism did not lead to the expected results. Economic and military-political competitors continued to outpace it, and their successes encouraged Ankara to make measurements during its policy. She became more and more realistic and pragmatic. For a few reasons, during the first decade of the new century, the Turkish upper classes somewhat cooled down to pan-Turkism. At the same time, the elites of the Central Asian countries got a taste of state nationalism and, cultivating their own values, emphasized their sovereignty and the right to a multi-vector foreign policy. Overcoming their dependence on Moscow, they also demonstrated their unwillingness to follow in the wake of Ankara’s interests. In the conditions оf De-globalization and fragmentation that began after the global crisis of 2008–2009 pan-Turkism is once again becoming an important factor in the sovereign positioning of the Turkic-speaking republics of Central Asia. At the same time, it has ceased to act as an instrument of Turkish expansion and today represents a new phenomenon — “collective pan-Turkism”, which testifies to the common interest and solidarity aspirations of its participants. Russia, China and other non-regional actors will have to reckon with this circumstance in the future.

The Influence of Pan-Turkism on the Political Identity Formation of the Turkic States of Central Asia in the XXI Century (Part 1)

The negative tone of statements about pan-Turkism and Turkey’s policy in the post-Soviet space in the Central Asian region prevails in the Russian media. Indeed, pan-Turkism is a strong factor in the emerging statehood of the newly independent states of the region. At the same time, and it is important to emphasize this, it is not the only and far from defining one. His influence manifested itself mainly in the first half of the 1990s. All the authors note the role of Turkey at the initial stage of the sovereignty of the countries of this region. Then, first, due to lack of resources, its influence in Central Asia began to wane. New players appeared in the region, representing the interests of Western countries and China. Russian economic, military, and political influence also became more stable and weightier. Turkey’s attempts in the XXI century to achieve new successes in promoting its interests based on the values of Turkism did not lead to the expected results. Economic and military-political competitors continued to outpace it, and their successes encouraged Ankara to make measurements during its policy. She became more and more realistic and pragmatic. For a few reasons, during the first decade of the new century, the Turkish upper classes somewhat cooled down to pan-Turkism. At the same time, the elites of the Central Asian countries got a taste of state nationalism and, cultivating their own values, emphasized their sovereignty and the right to a multi-vector foreign policy. Overcoming their dependence on Moscow, they also demonstrated their unwillingness to follow in the wake of Ankara’s interests. In the conditions оf De-globalization and fragmentation that began after the global crisis of 2008–2009 pan-Turkism is once again becoming an important factor in the sovereign positioning of the Turkic-speaking republics of Central Asia. At the same time, it has ceased to act as an instrument of Turkish expansion and today represents a new phenomenon — “collective pan-Turkism”, which testifies to the common interest and solidarity aspirations of its participants. Russia, China and other non-regional actors will have to reckon with this circumstance in the future.

Impact of the Ukrainian War on South Korea’s diplomacy in Central Asia

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will have political and economic impacts in Central Asia. Politically, first, Central Asian countries will strengthen cooperation with neighbouring regional powers such as India, Turkey and Iran to hedge their political and economic security. Second, while China’s influence in Central Asia will increase, SCO will be more economic cooperation organisation. Third, the future direction of Central Asian regionalism will be uncertain. Although it is unlikely, if Uzbekistan shows anti-Russian behaviour, regionalism in Central Asia may weaken. Fourth, it is unlikely that the US role will be expanded again in Central Asia after the Ukraine War. Economically, first, it is highly likely that the status and centripetal force of the Eurasian Economic Union will be weakened. Second, if Europe’s anti-Russian energy policy is strengthened and green energy policies are accelerated, the renewable energy policies of Central Asian carbon-centered energy producing countries such as Kazakhstan in particular can be accelerated. Third, if the logistical obstacles of TSR persist, the bypass logistics infrastructure going to Central Asia through India, Iran, Pakistan, etc. instead of through Russia will be activated. It seems inevitable to shift Korea’s diplomacy toward Central Asia to a certain level to organically link value-based diplomacy and economic security strategies. In this context, first, the existing diplomatic strategies and economic cooperation policies toward Central Asia must be freed from the tendency to view Central Asian countries only as a sphere of influence from Russia. Second, in a situation in which economic cooperation between Korea and Russia is inevitably severely curtailed due to western sanctions against Russia and geopolitical conflicts, it is necessary to strengthen economic cooperation with Central Asian countries as a means of circumventing economic cooperation with Russia. Third, there is a possibility that the northern policy of new governments may be weakened due to the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, thus the cooperation with Central Asian countries may also shrink. It will be necessary to maintain and develop the previous government’s cooperation platform with Central Asian countries.

“Большая игра 2.0” в Центральной Азии на современном этапе

The hasty withdrawal of US and their NATO allies’ troops from Afghanistan and the subsequent rapid seizure of power in the country by the Taliban (banned in Russia) signal the beginning of a new stage of the geopolitical rivalry for influence in the Central Asian region. Due to the geostrategic importance of its geographical location, Central Asia historically has been a region where major global players are competing for influence. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the establishment of five Central Asian states as independent opened a new page in the geopolitical struggle for influence in the region. In contrast to the 19th century, when the Russian and British empires were engaged in the confrontation, there are now significantly more external players, but the key actors are Russia, China and the collective West. Over the past 30 years, since the start of the new race among external players to spread their influence in Central Asia, their positions have changed as well as the international “subjectivity” of the region itself, which has been gradually strengthening recently. Further confrontation between key external actors in the region will fit into the global growth trends of confrontation between Russia and China, on the one hand, and Western countries led by the US, on the other.

China’s Northwest Economic Importance for Stability in Central Asia

China’s Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR) is most closely associated with the violation of human rights and freedoms of the Uyghurs, a national minority of Muslims of Turkic origin. Most of the publications on this topic are by Western scientists, journalists, and analytical centers, and formed the basis for the introduction of sanctions against individual companies and entire industries where forced labor was proven. However, there are no similar independent studies by Ukrainian scientists. The economic aspects of the region’s development, the consequences of sanctions for the economic activity of enterprises and the people of Xinjiang, in particular, are insufficiently researched. The author analyzed the economic condition of the modern XUAR, which was affected by the Covid-19 pandemic and sanctions. Particular attention is paid to the stimulating measures taken by the Chinese government to support the growth of the region, such as economic development projects like the «Great Western Development Strategy» (这是大学乐). XUAR has strategically important political and economic significance for the stability not only of China, but also of Central Asia. Firstly, the geographical position in the North-West of the country with the largest land border, where the terroristic and separatist sentiments have been successfully curbed. Secondly, the wealth of natural resources and a favorable climate for agriculture and the development of alternative energy sources. The recent visit of the head of the People’s Republic of China to Xinjiang and the change of the head of the region to Ma Xingrui, who was previously in charge of Guangdong, are positive signals for local businesses and people. On the basis of statistical data, analytical materials of scientists, journalistic publications, and communication with colleagues who visited XUAR, the author came to the conclusion that the region has positive development trends, and the level of well-being of households in the region is increasing. The purpose of this study is to analyze the current economic state of XUAR in terms of priority directions of growth and under the influence of the risks of the pandemic and Western sanctions, to characterize the economic profile of the region from the perspective of further strategic development, taking into account the importance of the autonomous region for the government of the country, its business activity and political stability, and China’s growing influence in Central Asia.

COLONIAL RUSSIA’S POLICY TOWARDS ISLAM IN KAZAKHSTAN (BASED ON THE MATERIALS OF THE ORENBURG STATE ARCHIVE)

In this paper author explore Russia’s colonial policy with regard to religion, population or Orenburg steppes on the basis of archive data. Main task of the publication is a complex research of history of Russia’s colonial policy regarding peoples in Central Asia. Steppe part of the Orenburg region was included into conquered colonial territory of Russia. This region connecting steppe routes of Kazakhs, Bashkir, Tatars and representing a strategical territory for strengthening Russian influence in Central Asia. Interesting aspects explored during review of archive data and study of the region’s history is a policy towards religious life of population. The methodology of the analysis is based on the study of archival materials in Orenburg conducted by researchers in 2010. The focus was on archival materials of the Orenburg State Archive on the situation of Kazakhs, Tatars and Bashkirs in the Russian Empire.The result of the study was the conclusion that religion was considered by the colonial administration as the main tool of trust establishment to the Russian authorities.

Eurasian Concept: Central Asia in Russian and Chinese Foreign Policy

This article focuses on the reasons for both increasing attention to Eurasian ideology among political and scientific circles in Russia and the Chinese interest in Central Asia. Given a realistic paradigm, the authors analyzed aspects of Russian and Chinese foreign policy in the context of strengthening their influence in the region. Based on traditional values the ideology of Eurasianism is considered as a basis of Russias foreign policy in Central Asia. The authors paid attention to an analysis of the effectiveness of the Russian concept of Eurasianism and the Chinese initiative the Belt and Road Initiative, reminiscent of the Silk Road, in Central Asia. The paper covers theoretical-analytical and systemic-historical methods that offered an opportunity both to analyze the approaches of Russia and China to strengthen their influence in Central Asia and to examine the possibilities and contradictions of cooperation between Russia and China in Central Asia. The authors consider an interface among the EAEU and the Belt and Road Initiative as an opportunity to increase the efficiency of Russian-Chinese interaction, to create significant benefits to the countries in the Central Asia, and to expand the Russian and Chinese presence in the region. The authors pointed out the strengths and weaknesses of Russia and China in their interaction with the countries of Central Asia. Although Russia enjoys significant advantages, China is strengthening its presence in the region by its investments. The main hypothesis of this article is that the interface among the EAEU and the Belt and Road Initiative initiatives may curb competition between Russia and China in Central Asia, but the authors do not rule out the Shanghai scenario, which demonstrates a gradual strengthening of Chinas position.

Revisiting US–China strategic competition in Central Asia and its impact on Pakistan

Since the dissolution of the former Soviet Union, the US, and China are aspiring to enhance their strategic influence in Central Asia which has recently been intensified due to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Further, China has also increased its influence in Central Asia through regional organizations such as Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Against this backdrop, Pakistan emerged as an important pivot of China's BRI where the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is the flagship project. This study begins with a theoretical debate of Heartland theory of Halford John Mackinder and the later version of Heartland theory into Rimland theory by Nicolas Spykman, which explains the geopolitical significance of Central Asia for Major Powers. Within this theoretical context, the study discusses China and the US grand strategies in Central Asia in the form of China's BRI, SCO and the US counter‐strategies such as from phase 1.0, policy to 2.0, policy, and the recent initiative of C5 + 1. The study finds out that US–China strategic competition will have implications for various states having relations with both of these two major powers. In case of Pakistan, the strategic competition between China and the US will affect various dimensions of Pakistan's security at the broader level such as political, military, and economic security. First, at the political level, it is affecting Pakistan's relations with Russia, China, Iran, and Gulf States. Second, at military level, Pakistan's strategic value has been enhanced as a frontline state against terrorism. Finally, at the economic level, CPEC provides opportunities for Pakistan's economy and regional connectivity.

EUROPEAN UNION’S SECURITY POLICY IN REGARD TO CENTRAL ASIA WITHIN THE EU STRATEGY FOR CA

As Central Asia undergoes a rapid transformation process, political, economic and security developments remain uncertain and difficult to predict. External actors will play a key role in defining the contours of transformation in Central Asia. In recent years, a number of powerful countries—mainly China, the Russian Federation and, to a lesser extent, the United States, Japan and Turkey—have sought to increase their influence in Central Asia. There was a timely initiative proposed by Germany, which presided over the European Union at the time, to launch the process of rethinking EU participation in Central Asia, culminating in the development of a Strategy for Central Asia. Thus, the European Union has reinforced its presence at a strategic moment for Central Asia. The Strategy for a New Partnership, adopted by the European Council on 21-22 June, 2007, became the main document for the significant and decisive strengthening of EU policy in Central Asia. The strategy represents the most ambitious EU project in the region and demonstrates a significant improvement in relations. The EU has the needed resources and, in line with the Strategy, it wants to do its part to transform the region into a secure and well-governed area, which is also in the interests of Central Asians. In 2019, in order to intensify cooperation, the EU updated and launched the new Strategy for Central Asia. It should be noted that security is a particularly important issue. In both the first Strategy 2007 and the updated Strategy 2019, the theme of security is reflected in various EU programs and projects. Thus, the article will provide a general analysis of EU’s security programs in Central Asia.