Inflation Targeting Credibility Research Articles

Business cycle synchronization: is it affected by inflation targeting credibility?

We empirically study the impact of inflation targeting credibility on business cycle synchronization with G-7 economies. To do this, we use a sample of 15 inflation targeting countries to develop and calculate a reputation-based credibility measure for long- and short-term memory. By using dynamic multipliers through a panel vector autoregressive model, our main findings indicate that greater credibility allows for greater anchoring of inflation expectations by economic agents. This would lead to a greater effectiveness of monetary policy in stabilizing the evolution of prices, allowing the output gap to be more sensitive to external aggregate demand shocks. Therefore, countries with inflation targeting regimes must develop and maintain credibility for their monetary policy if they want to encourage greater interactions with the rest of the world.

Are inflation targets credible? A novel test

We propose a novel test of the credibility of inflation targets, using surveys of professional forecasters and a variant of the model of inflation expectations developed in Mehrotra and Yetman (2017). We find that inflation targets in most economies have been considered credible by professional forecasters, as the estimated anchor of inflation forecasts is close to the announced inflation target. Moreover, any deviations between the estimated anchor and the target tend to be short lived.

Estimating the credibility of Brazilian monetary policy using a Kalman filter approach

The objective of this study is to estimate the credibility of the monetary policy followed by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) during the period 2006–2015. To estimate this credibility, we use the Kalman filter in three measures of inflation expectation: two collected via market survey and via consumer polling, as well as the breakeven inflation. The results provide evidence of the existence of three shifts in the perceived credibility of BCB inflation targets during the period analyzed: (i) credibility declined sharply in mid-2008, at the most critical moment of the subprime mortgage crisis; (ii) credibility was relatively stable from early 2009 through mid-2013; (iii) credibility trended downward thereafter, when the real interest rate was less than the minimum rate compatible with the inflation target. By associating the estimated credibility with macroeconomic and financial variables, we find a downward trend in credibility during recessionary periods and an inverse relationship between credibility and output gap, between credibility and variation in the BRL/USD exchange rate, and between credibility and historical inflation. In addition, we find that market survey and breakeven inflation credibility measures are important in predicting sovereign risk. Furthermore, changes in the inflation rate are important for predicting only credibility measured on consumer polling, validating the assumption that measures from consumer polls are backward-looking and formed based on consumers’ adaptive expectations.

Is inflation targeting credible in Asia? A panel GARCH approach

We examine the relationship between inflation targeting and the behavior of the level and volatility of inflation for eight Asian countries over the period 1987–2013. In contrast to existing studies that rely upon time series methods, we employ a novel panel GARCH model that accounts for heterogeneity and interdependence across countries. Our main contribution is to shed new light on the inflation targeting credibility hypothesis based on lower inflation and inflation volatility as well as on the correlation between unanticipated inflation shocks within a panel GARCH framework. We find strong evidence of a reduction in the level of inflation that operates from the impact of actual inflation targets in the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand. We also find that the adoption of inflation targeting helped lower inflation volatility in the Philippines and South Korea. Overall, the results suggest that Asian inflation targeting regimes are more credible in terms of reducing the level of inflation than lowering inflation volatility. There is also evidence that the covariance of inflation shocks among inflation targeting and non-targeting countries tends to increase.

Inflation targeting credibility and sovereign risk: evidence from Colombia

ABSTRACTThis article relates to the literature on sovereign risk in developing countries. In particular, we present empirical evidence to address the effect of inflation targeting credibility on sovereign risk based on the Colombian experience. The findings denote that credibility is an important improvement in the institutional framework to reduce the sovereign risk premium.

Credibility and Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting

After more than two decades of inflation targeting in the world, it is important to evaluate if the adoption of this regime in a relevant developing country contributed to the creation of a better environment for the process of entrepreneurs' expectations formation. Brazil is part of an important group of developing countries and represents a potential laboratory experiment in which the effects of an adoption of inflation targeting after more than a decade can be evaluated. Not enough is known about the consequences of inflation targeting credibility on both monetary policy and monetary policy transmission channels in developing countries that adopted inflation targeting. Emphasizing the role of transparency and the credibility of monetary policy as a performance criterion that motivate any country wishing to adopt an inflation targeting regime, this study leads to the fact that these two basic principles toward which a inflation targeting regime cannot be achieved without respect for certain pre namely institutional and technical conditions.

Credibility and the credit channel transmission of monetary policy theoretical model and econometric analysis for Brazil

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to present a theoretical model and empirically verifies the transmission of monetary policy through the credit channel in Brazil. The study verifies if the monetary policy, the economic activity and the maturity of the inflation targeting regime affect the supply of credit.Design/methodology/approachThe paper offers a review of the literature concerning inflation targeting credibility and the transmission mechanism of monetary policy through the credit channel, it develops a theoretical model based on Bernanke and Blinder and Ferreira and it seeks empirical evidence for the Brazilian economy using ordinary least squares, generalized method of moments and vector autoregressive.FindingsThe estimates indicate that the supply of credit is stimulated when the economy heats up, when the monetary authority reduces the interest rate and when the credibility increases. The evidence also indicate that the supply of credit is affected by the variables of the model, economic activity and employment are affected by monetary policy and the supply of credit exerts influence on both employment and output gap.Research limitations/implicationsAn important implication of this study is that, in inflation targeting emerging economies, such as that of Brazil, following a committed monetary policy to price stability which increases the credibility of the regime of inflation targeting and promoting macroeconomic stability represents a good strategy for improving the volume of lending to the private sector, thus stimulating economic activity and employment. What the findings do indicate is that developing credibility is crucial for emerging economies that are trying to grow, but with inflation being kept under control.Originality/valueThe paper presents the following theoretical and empirical contributions: the model incorporates the effect that the credibility of the inflation targeting regime has on the supply of credit and, the econometric approach provides evidence that the monetary policy, the economic activity and the process of anchoring of inflation expectations affect the supply of credit in Brazil. Moreover, the paper finds evidence that the credit channel acts as a transmission mechanism of monetary policy to the economy.

Economic policies, macroeconomic environment and entrepreneurs' expectations

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of macroeconomic variables and economic policies on expectations and confidence of entrepreneurs. It provides an econometric analysis of the expectation transmission channel under inflation targeting in Brazil, emphasizing the effect of inflation targeting credibility on the business confidence of industrial entrepreneurs.Design/methodology/approachBased on ordinary least square (OLS), generalized method of moments (GMM) and vector autoregression (VAR), the paper provides empirical evidence about the influence of inflation targeting credibility and macroeconomic policies on expectations and confidence of entrepreneurs and, as a consequence, on industrial production.FindingsThe evidence for the Brazilian economy suggest that monetary and fiscal policies as well as the credibility of the monetary regime affect economic activity by their impact on expectations of entrepreneurs.Research limitations/implicationDevelopment of macroeconomic stability is important to the expectations formed by entrepreneurs and, therefore, for industrial production. In particular, inflation targeting credibility stimulates industrial production, since it increases the confidence of entrepreneurs about the functioning of the economy and their businesses.Originality/valueThe results suggest new insights about the influence of economic policies on the real side of the economy, pointing out that the conduct of economic policies in emerging countries with inflation targets are likely to affect the expectations of entrepreneurs and therefore their production decisions.

Credibility and monetary transmission channels under inflation targeting: An econometric analysis from a developing country

After more than two decades of inflation targeting in the world, it is important to evaluate if the adoption of this regime in a relevant developing country contributed to the creation of a better environment for the process of entrepreneurs' expectations formation. Brazil is part of an important group of developing countries (BRIC — Brazil, Russia, India and China) and represents a potential laboratory experiment in which the effects of an adoption of inflation targeting after more than a decade can be evaluated. Not enough is known about the consequences of inflation targeting credibility on both monetary policy and monetary policy transmission channels in developing countries that adopted inflation targeting. Hence, the paper analyzes the effects of credibility on the conduct of monetary policy, and the transmission channels through which monetary policy affect the economy. The study found that inflation targeting has represented an important strategy for the achievement of a more stable macroeconomic environment, which has been of great importance to investments and employment creation. Besides, the study found the following novelties: inflation targeting credibility positively affects entrepreneurs' expectations, expectations of entrepreneurs affect investment decisions and employment creation and the expectations of entrepreneurs are affected by the traditional transmission channels.

Inflation targeting credibility and reputation: The consequences for the interest rate

The measurement of credibility and reputation is fundamental for the analysis of countries which adopted inflation targeting. Under this perspective, the objective of this article is to illustrate which measures of credibility and reputation are most useful in predicting variations of interest rates. Given a specific inflation target, this relationship is valuable for central bankers as well as for private agents trying to predict the central bank's policies. Due to the fact that Brazil represents a potential laboratory experiment in which the effects of an adoption of inflation targeting after more than a half decade can be observed, an analysis through several indices and its relation with the basic interest rate is made. The findings denote that the credibility indices based on reputation represent an alternative in the cases where the series of inflation expectation are not available. Furthermore, the empirical evidence confirms the hypothesis that higher credibility implies lower variations in the interest rate for controlling inflation.

Credibility of Inflation Targets in Poland

This paper empirically investigates credibility of inflation targets in Poland. It proposes a new methodology to estimate the impact of policy announcements on survey-based inflationary expectations. Credibility of inflation targets in Poland have been high – the public seems to have attached greater weight to policy announcements than to past macroeconomic developments, particularly after the formal introduction of inflation targeting. The proposed Bayesian approach makes efficient use of available information to provide an intuitive, time-varying measures of credibility.

Inflation-Target Design: Changing Inflation Performance and Persistence in Industrial Countries

This paper explores the behavior of inflation in countries that formally target inflation - relative to countries with historically good inflation records - but, which do not target the rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI). Pierre L. Siklos examines the design of inflation targets and the circumstances under which they were introduced. The author also asks, via some simple econometric tests, whether the introduction of targets had any statistically discernible impact on inflation persistence. Additionally, Siklos questions whether inflation persistence changed in the select countries that have no formal inflation targets. Finally, the author assesses, via a discussion of the behavior of private sector inflation forecasts, the credibility of inflation targets. Descriptive and econometric evidence suggest that the mere adoption of an inflation target is insufficient in delivering a consistently better inflation performance; nor does it significantly affect inflationary expectations. It remains to be seen whether inflation targeting can withstand pressures stemming from sustained breaches of targets, should inflation policies in the major industrialized countries begin to diverge. After all, the current disinflation, as this study has shown, is an international phenomenon.